SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Scientific Data - Nature”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 955 records · Page 53Linked to original sources

USGS2007

Results of a Wildlife Toxicology Workshop held by the Smithsonian Institution ? Identification and prioritization of problem statements

On March 13-15, 2007 nearly 50 scientists and administrators from the US and Canada participated in a Smithsonian-sponsored Wildlife Toxicology Workshop. Invitees were from academic, government, conservation and the private organizations and were selected to represent the diverse disciplines that encompass wildlife toxicology. The workshop addressed scientific and policy issues, strengths and weaknesses of current research strategies, interdisciplinary and science-based approaches in the study of complex contaminant issues, mechanisms for disseminating data to policy-makers, and the development of a partner network to meet the challenges facing wildlife toxicology over the next decade. Prior to the meeting, participants were asked to submit issues they deemed to be of highest concern which shaped four thematic groups for discussion: Wildlife Toxicology in Education, Risk Assessment, Multiple Stressors/Complex Mixtures, and Sub-Lethal to Population-Level Effects. From these discussion groups, 18 problem statements were developed and prioritized outlining what were deemed the most important issues to address now and into the future. Along with each problem statement participants developed potential solutions and action steps geared to move each issue forward. The workshop served as a stepping stone for action in the field of wildlife toxicology. These problem statements and the resulting action items are presented to the inter-disciplinary wildlife toxicology community for adoption, and future work and action items in these areas are encouraged. The workshop outcome looks to generate conversation and collaboration that will lead to the development of innovative research, future mechanisms for funding, workshops, working groups, and listserves within the wildlife toxicology community.

Book chapter↗

USGS2024

Seabed maps showing topography, ruggedness, backscatter intensity, sediment mobility, and the distribution of geologic substrates in quadrangle 5 of the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary region offshore of Boston, Massachusetts

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Marine Sanctuary Program of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, has conducted seabed mapping and related research in the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary (SBNMS) region since 1993. The area being mapped using geophysical and geological data includes the SBNMS and the surrounding region, which totals approximately 3,700 square kilometers (km 2 ) and is subdivided into 18 quadrangles. The seabed is a glaciated terrain that is topographically and texturally diverse. Quadrangle 5, the subject of this scientific investigations map, has an area of 211 km 2 and has water depths that range from 23 meters (m) on the Stellwagen Bank crest to 105 m in the Stellwagen Basin. Seven map types, each at a scale of 1:25,000, depict seabed topography, ruggedness, backscatter intensity, distribution of geologic substrates, sediment mobility, distribution of fine- and coarse-grained sand, and substrate mud content. These maps show the distribution of geologic substrates on the crest and western flank of the south-central part of Stellwagen Bank and in Stellwagen Basin to the west. Interpretations of multibeam sonar bathymetric and seabed backscatter imagery, photographs, video imagery, and grain-size analyses were used to create the geology-based maps. Data from 729 stations were analyzed, including 620 sediment samples. The geologic substrate maps of quadrangle 5 show the distribution of 20 substrates that represent a wide range of textures, such as mobile and rippled sand, immobile sand, sand that partially veneers gravel, boulder ridges, and mud. Mapped substrates are characterized by sediment grain-size composition, surface morphology, substrate layering, the mobility or immobility of substrate surfaces, and water depth range. This scientific investigations map portrays the major geological elements (substrates, topographic features, and processes) of environments in quadrangle 5. It is intended to provide a foundation for research into present and past sediment transport processes in a complex terrain, provide insights into the ecological requirements of invertebrate and vertebrate species that utilize the various substrates, and to support seabed management in the region.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2017

Application of decline curve analysis to estimate recovery factors for carbon dioxide enhanced oil recovery

Introduction In the decline curve analysis (DCA) method of estimating recoverable hydrocarbon volumes, the analyst uses historical production data from a well, lease, group of wells (or pattern), or reservoir and plots production rates against time or cumulative production for the analysis. The DCA of an individual well is founded on the same basis as the fluid-flow principles that are used for pressure-transient analysis of a single well in a reservoir domain and therefore can provide scientifically reasonable and accurate results. However, when used for a group of wells, a lease, or a reservoir, the DCA becomes more of an empirical method. Plots from the DCA reflect the reservoir response to the oil withdrawal (or production) under the prevailing operating and reservoir conditions, and they continue to be good tools for estimating recoverable hydrocarbon volumes and future production rates. For predicting the total recoverable hydrocarbon volume, the DCA results can help the analyst to evaluate the reservoir performance under any of the three phases of reservoir productive life—primary, secondary (waterflood), or tertiary (enhanced oil recovery) phases—so long as the historical production data are sufficient to establish decline trends at the end of the three phases.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2016

Comment on “The reduction of friction in long-runout landslides as an emergent phenomenon” by Brandon C. Johnson et al.

Results from a highly idealized, 2-D computational model indicate that dynamic normal-stress rarefactions might cause friction reduction in long-runout landslides, but the physical relevance of the idealized dynamics has not been confirmed by experimental tests. More importantly, the model results provide no evidence that refutes alternative hypotheses about friction reduction mechanisms. One alternative hypothesis, which is strongly supported by field evidence, experimental data, and the predictions of a well-constrained computational model, involves development of high pore fluid pressures in deforming landslide material or overridden bed material. However, no scientific basis exists for concluding that a universal mechanism is responsible for friction reduction in all long-runout landslides.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

USGS2012

Development and application of a soil organic matter-based soil quality index in mineralized terrane of the Western US

Soil quality indices provide a means of distilling large amounts of data into a single metric that evaluates the soil’s ability to carry out key ecosystem functions. Primarily developed in agroecosytems, then forested ecosystems, an index using the relation between soil organic matter and other key soil properties in more semi-arid systems of the Western US impacted by different geologic mineralization was developed. Three different sites in two different mineralization types, acid sulfate and Cu/Mo porphyry in California and Nevada, were studied. Soil samples were collected from undisturbed soils in both mineralized and nearby unmineralized terrane as well as waste rock and tailings. Eight different microbial parameters (carbon substrate utilization, microbial biomass-C, mineralized-C, mineralized-N and enzyme activities of acid phosphatase, alkaline phosphatase, arylsulfatase, and fluorescein diacetate) along with a number of physicochemical parameters were measured. Multiple linear regression models between these parameters and both total organic carbon and total nitrogen were developed, using the ratio of predicted to measured values as the soil quality index. In most instances, pooling unmineralized and mineralized soil data within a given study site resulted in lower model correlations. Enzyme activity was a consistent explanatory variable in the models across the study sites. Though similar indicators were significant in models across different mineralization types, pooling data across sites inhibited model differentiation of undisturbed and disturbed sites. This procedure could be used to monitor recovery of disturbed systems in mineralized terrane and help link scientific and management disciplines.

Environmental Earth Sciences↗

USGS2007

Watershed responses to climate change at Glacier National Park

We have developed an approach which examines ecosystem function and the potential effects of climatic shifts. The Lake McDonald watershed of Glacier National Park was the focus for two linked research activities: acquisition of baseline data on hydrologic, chemical and aquatic organism attributes that characterize this pristine northern rocky mountain watershed, and further developing the Regional Hydro-Ecosystem Simulation System (RHESSys), a collection of integrated models which collectively provide spatially explicit, mechanistically-derived outputs of ecosystem processes, including hydrologic outflow, soil moisture, and snowpack water equivalence. In this unique setting field validation of RHESSys, outputs demonstrated that reasonable estimates of SWE and streamflow are being produced. RHESSys was used to predict annual stream discharge and temperature. The predictions, in conjunction with the field data, indicated that aquatic resources of the park may be significantly affected. Utilizing RHESSys to predict potential climate scenarios and response of other key ecosystem components can provide scientific insights as well as proactive guidelines for national park management.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS1949

Cannel, boghead, torbanite, oil shale

The gradational interrelationship of coal with cannel, boghead, torbanite, and oil shale is reemphasized in view of contrary opinions expressed recently. An example from South Africa that has recently been studied in some detail is cited in illustration of how closely coal and torbanite may be related. The scientific classification of the carbonaceous rocks requires a broader basis of comparison than is generally adopted; authoritative statements cannot have very much weight unless supported by more correlated data than exist now.

Economic Geology↗

USGS1999

Color infrared digital orthophoto quadrangles for the South Florida ecosystem area

The South Florida Ecosystem Restoration Program is an intergovernmental effort to reestablish and maintain the ecosystems of south Florida. One element of the restoration effort is the development of a firm scientific basis for resource decision making. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is one of the agencies that provides scientific information as part of the South Florida Ecosystem Program (SFEP). The program, which was begun in fiscal year (FY) 1995, provides multidisciplinary hydrologic, cartographic, geologic, and biologic data that relate to the mainland of south Florida, the Florida Bay, and the Florida Keys and Reef ecosystems.

Florida↗

USGS1983

Water-resources investigations of the U.S. Geological Survey in Kansas; fiscal years 1981 and 1982

One of the primary missions of the U.S. Geological Survey in Kansas is to investigate the occurrence, quantity, quality, distribution, and movement of surface and groundwater throughout the State. Primary activities include the systematic collection, analysis, and interpretation of hydrologic data, evaluation of water demands, and water-resources research. Hydrologic investigations are conducted through four basic types of projects: (1) data-collection programs, (2) local or areal investigations, (3) statewide or regional investigations, and (4) research projects. These projects are funded through cooperative agreements with State and local agencies, transfer of funds from other Federal agencies, and direct Federal funds. Forty-two water-related projects were funded during fiscal years 1981 and 1982 in Kansas. This report describes for each of these water-resources investigations the problem that initiated the study, the objectives of the project, and the approach designed to achieve this objective. Information on data-collection stations in Kansas is presented in maps and tables. A list of reports approved for publication by the U.S. Geological Survey, its cooperators, or technical and scientific organizations during fiscal years 1981 and 1982 is also provided. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗

USGS1984

Water-resources reports prepared by or in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey, Kansas, 1886-1983

Water-resources data and the results of hydrologic investigations in Kansas are published or released by the U.S. Geological Survey, by cooperating State or Federal agencies, or by technical or scientific journals. This report lists more than 800 water-resources reports prepared by or in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey in Kansas for 1886 through 1983. The reports are listed by author, publication series, year of publication, and subject. The first water-resources investigations by the U.S. Geological Survey in Kansas was completed by A.C. Peale in 1886. The first cooperative program with a State agency was initiated 9 years later in 1895 and included the first stream-gaging stations operated by the Survey in western Kansas. The U.S. Geological Survey continues to investigate the occurrence, quantity, quality, distribution, and movement of surface and ground waters within the State. (USGS)

Open-File Report↗

USGS2023

Bayesian forecasting of disease spread with little or no local data

Rapid and targeted management actions are a prerequisite to efficiently mitigate disease outbreaks. Targeted actions, however, require accurate spatial information on disease occurrence and spread. Frequently, targeted management actions are guided by non-statistical approaches that define the affected area by a pre-determined distance surrounding a small number of disease detections. As an alternative, we present a long-recognized but underutilized Bayesian technique that uses limited local data and informative priors to make statistically valid predictions and forecasts about disease occurrence and spread. As a case study, we use limited local data that were available after the detection of chronic wasting disease in Michigan, U.S. along with information rich priors obtained from a previous study in a neighboring state. Using these limited local data and informative priors, we generate statistically valid predictions of disease occurrence and spread for the Michigan study area. This Bayesian technique is conceptually and computationally simple, relies on little to no local data, and is competitive with non-statistical distance-based metrics in all performance evaluations. Bayesian modeling has added benefits because it allows practitioners to generate immediate forecasts of future disease conditions and provides a principled framework to incorporate new data as they accumulate. We contend that the Bayesian technique offers broad-scale benefits and opportunities to make statistical inference across a diversity of data-deficient systems, not limited to disease.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2008

State of Texas - Highlighting low-lying areas derived from USGS Digital Elevation Data

In support of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) disaster preparedness efforts, this map depicts a color shaded relief representation of Texas and a grayscale relief of the surrounding areas. The first 30 feet of relief above mean sea level are displayed as brightly colored 5-foot elevation bands, which highlight low-elevation areas at a coarse spatial resolution. Standard USGS National Elevation Dataset (NED) 1 arc-second (nominally 30-meter) digital elevation model (DEM) data are the basis for the map, which is designed to be used at a broad scale and for informational purposes only. The NED data were derived from the original 1:24,000-scale USGS topographic map bare-earth contours, which were converted into gridded quadrangle-based DEM tiles at a constant post spacing (grid cell size) of either 30 meters (data before the mid-1990s) or 10 meters (mid-1990s and later data). These individual-quadrangle DEMs were then converted to spherical coordinates (latitude/longitude decimal degrees) and edge-matched to ensure seamlessness. The NED source data for this map consists of a mixture of 30-meter- and 10-meter-resolution DEMs. State and county boundary, hydrography, city, and road layers were modified from USGS National Atlas data downloaded in 2003. The NED data were downloaded in 2002. Shaded relief over Mexico was obtained from the USGS National Atlas.

Scientific Investigations Map↗

USGS2005

40Ar/39Ar geochronology of hypabyssal igneous rocks in the Maranon Basin of Peru - A record of thermal history, structure, and alteration

Hypabyssal andesites and dacites from the Balsapuerto Dome in the Mara?on Basin of Peru record the thermal, tectonic, and alteration history of the area. The Mara?on Basin is one of 19 sub-Andean foreland basins. The hypabyssal rocks in the Balsapuerto Dome are one of four known occurrences of subvolcanic rocks along the deformation front in Peru. This dome is a potential petroleum structural trap. Petroleum seeps near the dome indicate that a source for the petroleum is present, but the extent and amount of petroleum development is unknown. The Balsapuerto hypabyssal rocks are plagioclase-, hornblende-, pyroxene-phyric andesites to dacites. Some parts of the dome are pervasively altered to a hydrothermal assemblage of quartz-sericite-pyrite. 40Ar/39Ar geochronology shows that thermal activity related to emplacement of these subvolcanic rocks took place between 12-10 Ma, subsequent to the major periods of Andean folding and faulting, previously assumed to have occurred about 9 Ma. Eleven argon mineral age-spectrum analyses were completed. Argon apparent ages on amphibole range from 12.7 to 11.6 Ma, and the age spectra are simple, which indicates that the ages are very close to emplacement ages. Potassium feldspar yields an argon age spectrum ranging in age from 12.5 to 11.4 Ma, reflecting the period during which the potassium feldspar closed to argon diffusion between the temperature range of 350?C to about 150?C; thus the potassium feldspar age spectrum reflects a cooling profile throughout this temperature range. This age range is consistent with ages of emplacement for the entire igneous complex indicating that an increased thermal state existed in the area for at least 1.0 m.y. Combined with the coexisting hornblende age, this rock cooled from ~580?C to ~150?C in ~1.2 m.y. resulting in an average cooling rate of 358?C /m.y. White mica, or sericite, formed as a later alteration phase associated with quartz- sericite- pyrite and propylitic alteration in some samples. Three age-spectrum analyses on white mica indicate that alteration occurred at 12.5 Ma and again at 11 Ma, and suggest that alteration fluids were present throughout the range of emplacement and as long as 0.5 m.y. afterward. Based on these data, emplacement of the intrusive body(ies) began at about 12.7 Ma. The hornblende age range can be interpreted to reflect multiple periods of intrusion from 12.7 to 11.6 Ma or a period of thermal activity and high-temperature cooling during this age range. The potassium feldspar cooling age range supports either interpretation. The white mica ages indicate that at least two periods of hydrothermal activity occurred at 12.5 and 11.0 Ma, throughout the period of emplacement and cooling of the intrusive body below about 150?C. The magmatic and hydrothermal systems were active after the intrusion, with temperatures not reaching 150?C until about 1 m.y. after emplacement. Therefore, the thermal effects associated with emplacement of the intrusion and the associated hydrothermal system were probably high enough to destroy petroleum in the host and source rocks. Thus, the Balsapuerto Dome is not a viable source of petroleum. There is no evidence in the rock samples or thin sections for brittle or ductile deformation suggesting that this body was emplaced in its present location after cessation of Andean thrusting. Andean thrusting had been assumed to end about 9 Ma. However, this new data suggested that the Andean thrusting had ceased by about 12-10 Ma.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2006

Evaporation from Lake Mead, Arizona and Nevada, 1997-99

Lake Mead is one of a series of large Colorado River reservoirs operated and maintained by the Bureau of Reclamation. The Colorado River system of reservoirs and diversions is an important source of water for millions of people in seven Western States and Mexico. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, conducted a study from 1997 to 1999 to estimate evaporation from Lake Mead. For this study, micrometeorological and hydrologic data were collected continually from instrumented platforms deployed at four locations on the lake, open-water areas of Boulder Basin, Virgin Basin, and Overton Arm and a protected cove in Boulder Basin. Data collected at the platforms were used to estimate Lake Mead evaporation by solving an energy-budget equation. The average annual evaporation rate at open-water stations from January 1998 to December 1999 was 7.5 feet. Because the spatial variation of monthly and annual evaporation rates was minimal for the open-water stations, a single open-water station in Boulder Basin would provide data that are adequate to estimate evaporation from Lake Mead.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2009

Magnitude and Frequency of Rural Floods in the Southeastern United States, 2006: Volume 3, South Carolina

A multistate approach was used to update methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in rural, ungaged basins in South Carolina, Georgia, and North Carolina that are not substantially affected by regulation, tidal fluctuations, or urban development. Annual peak-flow data through September 2006 were analyzed for 943 streamgaging stations having 10 or more years of data on rural streams in South Carolina, Georgia, North Carolina, and adjacent parts of Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia. Flood-frequency estimates were computed for the 943 stations by fitting the logarithms of annual peak flows for each station to a Pearson Type III distribution. As part of the computation of flood-frequency estimates for the stations, a new value for the generalized skew coefficient was developed using a Bayesian generalized least-squares regression model. Additionally, basin characteristics for these stations were computed by using a geographical information system and automated computer algorithms. Exploratory regression analyses using ordinary least-squares regression completed on the initial database of 943 gaged stations resulted in defining five hydrologic regions for South Carolina, Georgia, and North Carolina. Stations with drainage areas less than 1 square mile were removed from the database, and a procedure to examine for basin redundancy (based on drainage area and periods of record) also resulted in the removal of some stations from the regression database. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least-squares regression, was used to develop a set of predictive equations for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent chance exceedance flows for rural ungaged basins in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Flood-frequency estimates and basin characteristics for 828 streamgaging stations were combined to form the final database used in the regional regression analysis. The final predictive equations are all functions of drainage area and percentage of the drainage basin within each hydrologic region. Average errors of prediction for these regression equations range from 34.0 to 47.7 percent. Peak-flow records at 25 regulated stations were assessed to determine if a flood-frequency analysis was appropriate. Based on those assessments, flood-frequency estimates are provided for three regulated stations. Annual peak-flow data are provided for the regulated stations in an appendix.

South Carolina↗

USGS2010

Simulation of streamflow, evapotranspiration, and groundwater recharge in the lower San Antonio River Watershed, South-Central Texas, 2000-2007

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the San Antonio River Authority, the Evergreen Underground Water Conservation District, and the Goliad County Groundwater Conservation District, configured, calibrated, and tested a watershed model for a study area consisting of about 2,150 square miles of the lower San Antonio River watershed in Bexar, Guadalupe, Wilson, Karnes, DeWitt, Goliad, Victoria, and Refugio Counties in south-central Texas. The model simulates streamflow, evapotranspiration (ET), and groundwater recharge using rainfall, potential ET, and upstream discharge data obtained from National Weather Service meteorological stations and USGS streamflow-gaging stations. Additional time-series inputs to the model include wastewater treatment-plant discharges, withdrawals for cropland irrigation, and estimated inflows from springs. Model simulations of streamflow, ET, and groundwater recharge were done for 2000-2007. Because of the complexity of the study area, the lower San Antonio River watershed was divided into four subwatersheds; separate HSPF models were developed for each subwatershed. Simulation of the overall study area involved running simulations of the three upstream models, then running the downstream model. The surficial geology was simplified as nine contiguous water-budget zones to meet model computational limitations and also to define zones for which ET, recharge, and other water-budget information would be output by the model. The model was calibrated and tested using streamflow data from 10 streamflow-gaging stations; additionally, simulated ET was compared with measured ET from a meteorological station west of the study area. The model calibration is considered very good; streamflow volumes were calibrated to within 10 percent of measured streamflow volumes. During 2000-2007, the estimated annual mean rainfall for the water-budget zones ranged from 33.7 to 38.5 inches per year; the estimated annual mean rainfall for the entire watershed was 34.3 inches. Using the HSPF model it was estimated that for 2000-2007, less than 10 percent of the annual mean rainfall on the study watershed exited the watershed as streamflow, whereas about 82 percent, or an average of 28.2 inches per year, exited the watershed as ET. Estimated annual mean groundwater recharge for the entire study area was 3.0 inches, or about 9 percent of annual mean rainfall. Estimated annual mean recharge was largest in water-budget zone 3, the zone where the Carrizo Sand outcrops. In water-budget zone 3, the estimated annual mean recharge was 5.1 inches or about 15 percent of annual mean rainfall. Estimated annual mean recharge was smallest in water-budget zone 6, about 1.1 inches or about 3 percent of annual mean rainfall. The Cibolo Creek subwatershed and the subwatershed of the San Antonio River upstream from Cibolo Creek had the largest and smallest basin yields, about 4.8 inches and 1.2 inches, respectively. Estimated annual ET and annual recharge generally increased with increasing annual rainfall. Also, ET was larger in zones 8 and 9, the most downstream zones in the watershed. Model limitations include possible errors related to model conceptualization and parameter variability, lack of data to quantify certain model inputs, and measurement errors. Uncertainty regarding the degree to which available rainfall data represent actual rainfall is potentially the most serious source of measurement error.

Texas↗

USGS2010

Distribution of Isotopic and Environmental Tracers in Groundwater, Northern Ada County, Southwestern Idaho

Residents of northern Ada County, Idaho, depend on groundwater for domestic and agricultural uses. The population of this area is growing rapidly and groundwater resources must be understood for future water-resource management. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Idaho Department of Water Resources, used a suite of isotopic and environmental tracers to gain a better understanding of groundwater ages, recharge sources, and flowpaths in northern Ada County. Thirteen wells were sampled between September and October 2009 for field parameters, major anions and cations, nutrients, oxygen and hydrogen isotopes, tritium, radiocarbon, chlorofluorocarbons, and dissolved gasses. Well depths ranged from 30 to 580 feet below land surface. Wells were grouped together based on their depth and geographic location into the following four categories: shallow aquifer, intermediate/deep aquifer, Willow Creek aquifer, and Dry Creek aquifer. Major cations and anions indicated calcium-bicarbonate and sodium-bicarbonate water types in the study area. Oxygen and hydrogen isotopes carried an oxygen-18 excess signature, possibly indicating recharge from evaporated sources or water-rock interactions in the subsurface. Chlorofluorocarbons detected modern (post-1940s) recharge in every well sampled; tritium data indicated modern water (post-1951) in seven, predominantly shallow wells. Nutrient concentrations tended to be greater in wells signaling recent recharge based on groundwater age dating, thus confirming the presence of recent recharge in these wells. Corrected radiocarbon results generated estimated residence times from modern to 5,100 years before present. Residence time tended to increase with depth, as confirmed by all three age-tracers. The disagreement among residence times indicates that samples were well-mixed and that the sampled aquifers contain a mixture of young and old recharge. Due to a lack of data, no conclusions about sources of recharge could be drawn from this study.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2011

Development of a precipitation-runoff model to simulate unregulated streamflow in the South Fork Flathead River Basin, Montana

This report documents the development of a precipitation-runoff model for the South Fork Flathead River Basin, Mont. The Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System model, developed in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation, can be used to simulate daily mean unregulated streamflow upstream and downstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir for water-resources planning. Two input files are required to run the model. The time-series data file contains daily precipitation data and daily minimum and maximum air-temperature data from climate stations in and near the South Fork Flathead River Basin. The parameter file contains values of parameters that describe the basin topography, the flow network, the distribution of the precipitation and temperature data, and the hydrologic characteristics of the basin soils and vegetation. A primary-parameter file was created for simulating streamflow during the study period (water years 1967-2005). The model was calibrated for water years 1991-2005 using the primary-parameter file. This calibration was further refined using snow-covered area data for water years 2001-05. The model then was tested for water years 1967-90. Calibration targets included mean monthly and daily mean unregulated streamflow upstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir, mean monthly unregulated streamflow downstream from Hungry Horse Reservoir, basin mean monthly solar radiation and potential evapotranspiration, and daily snapshots of basin snow-covered area. Simulated streamflow generally was in better agreement with observed streamflow at the upstream gage than at the downstream gage. Upstream from the reservoir, simulated mean annual streamflow was within 0.0 percent of observed mean annual streamflow for the calibration period and was about 2 percent higher than observed mean annual streamflow for the test period. Simulated mean April-July streamflow upstream from the reservoir was about 1 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and about 4 percent higher than observed for the test period. Downstream from the reservoir, simulated mean annual streamflow was 17 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and 12 percent lower than observed streamflow for the test period. Simulated mean April-July streamflow downstream from the reservoir was 13 percent lower than observed streamflow for the calibration period and 6 percent lower than observed streamflow for the test period. Calibrating to solar radiation, potential evapotranspiration, and snow-covered area improved the model representation of evapotranspiration, snow accumulation, and snowmelt processes. Simulated basin mean monthly solar radiation values for both the calibration and test periods were within 9 percent of observed values except during the month of December (28 percent different). Simulated basin potential evapotranspiration values for both the calibration and test periods were within 10 percent of observed values except during the months of January (100 percent different) and February (13 percent different). The larger percent errors in simulated potential evaporation occurred in the winter months when observed potential evapotranspiration values were very small; in January the observed value was 0.000 inches and in February the observed value was 0.009 inches. Simulated start of melting of the snowpack occurred at about the same time as observed start of melting. The simulated snowpack accumulated to 90-100 percent snow-covered area 1 to 3 months earlier than observed snowpack. This overestimated snowpack during the winter corresponded to underestimated streamflow during the same period. In addition to the primary-parameter file, four other parameter files were created: for a "recent" period (1991-2005), a historical period (1967-90), a "wet" period (1989-97), and a "dry" period (1998-2005). For each data file of projected precipitation and air temperature, a single parameter file can be used to simulate a s

Montana;Idaho↗