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Simulating post-dam removal effects of hatchery operations and disease on juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) production in the Lower Klamath River, California

Executive Summary The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has been considering the approval to breach four dams on lower Klamath River in southern Oregon and northern California. Approval of this application would allow for Strikeouts indicate text deletion hereafter. decommissioning and dam removal, beginning as early as 2023. This action would affect Klamath River salmon ( Oncorhynchus ssp.) populations, a critical food source for federally endangered Southern Resident Killer Whales ( Orcinus orca ). In the long run, reintroduction of salmon populations to the upper Klamath River Basin may increase salmon abundance available to Southern Resident Killer Whales, but in the near term, it is uncertain how changes in hatchery management and disease-caused mortality by the myxosporean parasite Ceratonova shasta will influence abundance of salmon populations entering the ocean. To assess this uncertainty, we used the Stream Salmonid Simulator (S3) to simulate population dynamics of juvenile Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) for nine different population sources that rear and migrate through the Klamath River. S3 is a spatially explicit population model that runs on a daily time-step and simulates daily growth, survival, and movement of juvenile Chinook salmon from the time of spawning through ocean entry. The key features of this model relevant to this report include (1) a C. shasta disease submodel; (2) a temperature-dependent bioenergetics model that calculates daily growth rates; (3) size-dependent movement; (4) density-dependent dynamics that are influenced by the effect of flow on suitable habitat area; and (5) habitat, river flow, and water temperature specific to each scenario. We constructed and ran four scenarios: two scenarios for dams in place (Dams In) and dams removed (Dams Out), and given these dam-removal conditions, a low- and high-spore scenario for C. shasta . Each scenario was run for nine water years representing a range of conditions from dry to wet. Previously published daily river flows and water temperatures for Dams In and Dams Out provided physical inputs for each scenario. Daily spore concentrations were simulated using a three-part mechanistic model that used river discharge, water temperature, and the prevalence of infection (POI) of hatchery-origin Chinook salmon juveniles with C. shasta in the previous year 3 . We constructed two spore scenarios for each Dams In and Dams Out scenario, a “Low Spore” scenario and a “High Spore” scenario resulting in four scenarios for comparison. Spore scenarios were established by setting the prior-year POI of hatchery fish to 0.15 and 0.75 in the estimation of spore concentrations. Hatchery releases under Dams Out differed from those under the current Dams In scenario. Hatchery releases under the Dams Out scenario were modified to emulate changes in hatchery production that would occur under Dams Out conditions. This included moving hatchery production and releases from Iron Gate Dam to a proposed hatchery at Fall Creek, which would be located about 11 kilometers (km) upstream of Iron Gate Dam. It is anticipated that the Fall Creek hatchery would produce fewer fish at smaller and larger sizes at different release timings. For salmon inputs, we used observed historical abundance of main-stem spawners from brood year 2009 and juvenile salmon entering from tributaries in water year 2010, which represented an average return year for the 2005–18 period. Main-stem spawning was allowed to shift upstream from Iron Gate Dam under the Dams Out scenario. We also included hatchery-origin fish as natural spawners that would have otherwise returned to Iron Gate Hatchery in the first 3 years following dam removal. The S3 model simulated considerably higher total abundance for Dams Out relative to the respective Dams In scenarios, and higher abundance for the Low Spore scenario relative to the High Spore scenario. The difference in abundance between the four combinations of the dam-removal and spore scenarios varied among population groups. For main-stem natural production, juvenile abundance at ocean entry was 2–3 times higher for Dams Out scenarios than for Dams In scenarios, and juvenile abundance for High Spore scenarios was lower than that for the Dams Out Low Spores scenario. For hatchery releases, abundance at ocean entry was similar between Dams In and Dams Out scenarios for most water years, despite lower release sizes from Fall Creek Hatchery under Dams Out. For tributary populations, abundance for the High Spore scenarios was consistently lower than for the Low Spore scenarios, but differences between dam-removal scenarios varied among water years, with Dams Out scenarios having similar or higher abundance than Dams In scenarios, and dry water years having the largest difference between Dams In and Dams Out scenarios. We determined that different factors affected the response of each population group. For main-stem natural production, survival from fry emergence to ocean entry was higher under Dams Out scenarios compared to Dams In scenarios because juveniles emerged later and tended to arrive at the ocean sooner and at larger sizes, causing the population to have less time-dependent in-river mortality. Owing to their late release timing, hatchery populations had high disease-caused mortality in Dams In and Dams Out High Spore scenarios. Furthermore, a high proportion of infected fish (those that would be expected to die at some future point) survived to the ocean. Iron Gate Hatchery fish had lower survival rates than releases from Fall Creek Hatchery because the last mid-June release group from the 2010 Iron Gate Hatchery release incurred nearly total mortality in most water years owing to water temperatures exceeding 24 degrees Celsius. Our analysis shows how the S3 model was able to track different populations and provide insights on how the differential response of each population combined to influence the simulated number of juvenile Chinook salmon arriving at the Pacific Ocean where they become available as a food source for Southern Resident Killer Whales.

California↗

Physics to fish—Understanding the factors that create and sustain native fish habitat in the San Francisco Estuary

Executive Summary The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) operates the Central Valley Project (CVP), one of the nation’s largest water projects. Reclamation has an ongoing need to improve the scientific basis for adaptive management of the CVP and, by extension, joint operations with California’s State Water Project. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) works cooperatively with the Bureau of Reclamation to provide scientific support for the management of Reclamation’s CVP project. Major habitat restoration efforts and a new water-diversion point are planned to benefit delta smelt ( Hypomesus transpacificus ) and other species of concern while ensuring the reliability of water supply. In addition, various flow actions and management activities have been identified as possible methods to increase populations of delta smelt and salmonid ( Oncorhynchus spp.) runs of concern. The overarching goal of this cooperative project was to provide Reclamation with the scientific information needed to evaluate the efficacy of ongoing and future adaptive management actions and to improve the scientific basis for more flexible CVP operations that would achieve water-supply reliability and fish protection. The research and monitoring described in this report comprises the period 2015–19 and focuses on management issues related to native fish species of concern, especially delta smelt. Conserving the delta smelt population while providing a reliable water supply is a primary management and policy issue in California. Our approach for this cooperative project is based on the “physics to fish” concept, the idea that high-quality habitat is generated and sustained by the interaction between physical processes and the landscape. These interactions create a template for chemical and biological processes that can change across a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Following this concept, this project (hereafter referred to as “the physics to fish project”) included monitoring and studies of water flows, sediments, water quality, and invertebrate and fish dynamics across a range of spatial and temporal scales and in regions relevant to resource managers tasked with managing water supplies and ecosystem health in the San Francisco Estuary. The intent of this approach was to document the habitat conditions, important processes, and interactions among them that create high-quality habitat for native fishes so that the likely effects of future management actions (for example, habitat restoration) can be objectively assessed at the local (site-specific), regional (within subregions of the estuary), and landscape (across the entire estuary and beyond) scales. Hydrodynamically, the upper estuary (landward of Carquinez Strait) is characterized by a fixed volume of tidally exchanged water (for example, tidal prism) that interacts with the existing channel network and bathymetry to create regions with differing hydrodynamics. Our results indicate that careful study of construction or reoperation of existing infrastructure to perform management actions can help (1) improve the accuracy of hydrodynamic models; (2) further understanding of ecological effects; and (3) enhance abilities to predict ecological outcomes. At the local scale, we developed a new concept called the Lagrangian to Eulerian (LE) ratio that can be used as a tool for understanding the importance of various hydrodynamic processes in specific channels or channel networks and for forecasting transport dynamics. Channels with LE ratios<1 in a channel network or in a dead-end slough are hydrodynamically able to develop an exchange zone between two parcels of water that may have different chemical and physical properties. In a dead-end channel, there is a landward region with long residence time (no-exchange zone) and a seaward region with short residence time (high-exchange zone) that are well mixed with seaward waters. At the transition (exchange zone) between the high and no-exchange regions, a gradient will form in water-quality constituents that differ in concentration between the landward and seaward waters. Turbidity affects fish habitat and has declined through time in the San Francisco Estuary. Average turbidity across the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (hereafter referred to as “the Delta”) is dependent on annual hydrology. In dry years, the region around Cache Slough (known regionally as the “Cache Slough Complex”) in the northern Delta is generally more turbid than Suisun Bay and the lower Sacramento River. When the Yolo By-Pass (known regionally as “Yolo Bypass”), a large flood bypass that runs parallel to the Sacramento River in the northern Delta, is not flooding and river flows are lower, sediment is usually transported into the Cache Slough Complex because flood tides dominate ebb tides, resulting in transport of suspended sediment from seaward areas of the upper estuary into the Cache Slough Complex. These hydrodynamic conditions also favor the formation of turbidity maximums (TMs) in the Cache Slough Complex. The TMs are areas of higher suspended-sediment concentration, providing higher-turbidity habitat favored by some fishes, including delta smelt, and they can also concentrate other constituents, including phytoplankton and organic carbon that can be important in food webs. Pelagic primary production by phytoplankton is the basis for Delta food webs supporting pelagic fishes such as delta smelt; however, phytoplankton abundance in the Delta has declined during recent decades. We examined how nutrients, hydrodynamics, and other factors affect phytoplankton blooms. Based on our results, we developed three new concepts of phytoplankton bloom formation in the Delta, each associated with a distinct set of hydrologic conditions. First, productivity cascades highlighted how local processes can contribute to phytoplankton blooms observed at the regional scale. Second, we observed phytoplankton blooms in the upper San Francisco Estuary that were associated with transport out of Yolo By-Pass (transport blooms). Third, we also documented a series of phytoplankton blooms that were in the confluence area at the landward edge of Suisun Bay. The conditions leading to creation of confluence phytoplankton blooms are not yet understood, but the confluence region connects the Cache Slough Complex with Suisun Marsh. Therefore, blooms in this area have the potential to spread to large areas of the Delta. At the landscape scale, the distribution of the invasive clams ( Potamocorbula amurensis and Corbicula fluminea , hereafter referred to as “ Corbicula ”) is driven by salinity. At smaller spatial scales, the distribution of either species is sensitive to multiple factors affecting survival and reproduction, complicating efforts to predict distribution and abundance without considering local-scale conditions across the area of interest. In the Cache Slough Complex, the area landward of the exchange zone in regions with LE ratio<1 were characterized by low abundances of Corbicula probably because recruits from seaward areas are not transported past the exchange zone and because there are no landward tributaries with adult Corbicula to provide an upstream source of recruits. Corbicula biomass was highest near or downstream from the exchange zone consistent with Corbicula grazing on phytoplankton produced in the exchange zone or transported from the no-exchange zone. The severity of Corbicula grazing could be reduced by manipulating the hydrodynamic characteristics of waterways; however, the beneficial and harmful effects on the organisms meant to benefit from increased phytoplankton production, including zooplankton and fish species of concern, should be thoroughly examined before manipulating hydrodynamic characteristics. The distribution of fishes at the landscape scale is generally driven by the position of the salinity field in the estuary. The physics to fish project compared distributions of fishes at Ryer Island, a tidal wetland in Suisun Bay and a region of variable salinity, with fish distributions at the Cache Slough Complex, a freshwater region. At Ryer Island, there was an absence of freshwater invasive species and an abundance of native species, such as Sacramento splittail ( Pogonichthys macrolepidotus ), tule perch ( Hysterocarpus traskii ), and Sacramento pikeminnow ( Ptychocheilus grandis ). The native species were almost exclusively captured in wetland and nearshore shallow-water habitat regardless of water-quality conditions. In the Cache Slough Complex, our regional scale objective was to elucidate how hydrodynamic-physical habitat interactions drive fish-community structure. Our studies showed that dendritic channel systems were better able to support native species, while intertidal habitats supported those species best able to exploit the transient character of the habitat. Habitats upstream from the exchange zone were especially important in supporting high numbers of native fishes relative to within or downstream from the exchange zone. Many of the native species were associated with tidal marsh in the no-exchange zone. More pelagic-oriented, mobile species, such as Striped Bass ( Morone saxatilis ), threadfin shad ( Dorosoma petenense ), and Sacramento pikeminnow, were more affected by water-quality conditions, such as turbidity. The physics to fish concept developed in this project provides a framework for designing individual projects and for considering the cumulative effects of multiple projects in a region, using the LE ratio as a guiding metric. The physics to fish concept may also provide a suitable framework for coordinating management actions. Tidal wetlands can function in several ways in the hydrodynamic framework. Relatively small tidal wetlands with short channel networks and with LE ratios>1 are not able to maintain a landward no-exchange zone or an exchange zone. This likely means that any contributions to pelagic food webs would be limited to resources derived from wetland vegetation, which can include dissolved and particulate organic matter (detritus) and populations of consumers that can increase in abundance based on those resources. The fate of the contributed production from these channels depends on the characteristics of the receiving waters seaward of the tidal wetland. If these channels join a large system such as Suisun Bay, then any contribution is likely to be rapidly dispersed in the larger volume; however, the channel junction might provide a focal point for consumers, such as fishes, to congregate and feed on material leaving the wetland on ebb tides before it is dispersed in the larger volume. Fishes might also access these resources by entering the wetland. The physics to fish project has established a foundation and several new concepts for understanding how habitat restoration can benefit native fish populations at the local and regional levels. Many of the ideas regarding habitat restoration and channel modifications outlined in this report could help guide management actions that could improve conditions for native fishes at little or no water cost beyond water already dedicated to other management actions. A complete list of products originating from this work is provided in appendix 1.

California↗

A machine learning tool for design of behavioral fish barriers in the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta

Executive Summary Survival of out-migrating juvenile salmonids ( Oncorhynchus spp.) through the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta averages less than 33 percent, depending on water flow through the delta, and is partially governed by the distribution of fish among three Sacramento River distributaries: Sutter, Steamboat, and Georgiana sloughs. Behavioral altering structures in the junctions of the distributaries can effectively increase entrainment into favorable routes, thereby increasing through-delta (Verona to Chips Island, California) survival. The effectiveness of these structures, hence forth called “behavioral barriers,” are dependent on shape, length, location, barrier type, and water velocity, which is governed by Sacramento River discharge (hereinafter referred to as “flow”). We developed a machine learning tool to optimize behavioral barrier designs at up to three junctions within the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta for improving through-delta survival of juvenile winter-run Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ). This barrier optimization tool (BOT) works by evolving barrier solutions in one to three junctions by repeatedly simulating survival of populations of Sacramento River origin fish as they pass through the Delta. Over approximately 6,000 simulations per junction, the BOT converges on barrier designs that result in the greatest average survival given simulated environmental conditions. Survival at each iteration of the model is simulated using a modified version of the salmon travel time and routing simulation (STARS) model. In the BOT, STARS is modified by replacing probabilistic route determinations with an individual based model (IBM) that simulates fish behavior to predict the entrainment rates in each junction. The IBM allows the flexibility to explore how entrainment changes with evolving barrier designs. We used juvenile winter-run-sized Chinook salmon catch data collected at Knights Landing from 1997 to 2011 to create realistic arrival and spatial distributions of simulated fish within the BOT that varied among water years (hereafter years). We demonstrated the capabilities of the BOT by comparing optimized barrier solutions and their resulting simulated improvement in survival among three scenarios that differed in the number of junctions with barriers (Georgiana Slough, Steamboat Slough, or both) and the barrier operational period (early: November 1–March 15, or late: January 1–April 30). In this initial demonstration of the BOT we only considered a bioacoustic fish fence (BAFF) at Georgiana Slough and a floating fish guidance structure (FFGS) at Steamboat Slough. The increase in simulated through-delta fish survival ranged from 1.0 to 6.3 percent among the optimized barrier designs. The most effective Georgiana Slough barrier design predicted improved survival by 6.3 percent and was chosen by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) as the Georgiana Slough salmon migratory barrier planned for operation annually from 2023 to 2030 at Georgiana Slough in response to the 2020 California Department of Fish and Wildlife’s (CDFW) Incidental Take Permit Minimization Measure 8.9.1 (California Department of Fish and Wildlife [CDFW], 2020). When barriers were simulated in both junctions, the percentages of simulated winter-run Chinook salmon interacting with a barrier at Steamboat or Georgiana sloughs were 95 percent given the early operational period and 48 percent given the late operational period. When barriers were simulated at both sloughs, the optimal barrier at Steamboat Slough effectively routed fish into the Sacramento River. This is because the Georgiana Slough barrier reduced routing into Georgiana Slough where survival is low, which resulted in higher survival for fish routed down the Sacramento River at Steamboat Slough than fish routed down Steamboat Slough. Whereas when no barrier was simulated at Georgiana Slough, the optimized barrier at Steamboat Slough routed fish into Steamboat Slough. This is because survival was higher through Steamboat Slough than the Sacramento River and Georgiana Slough combined. The greatest improvement in survival (6.3 percent) was predicted over the earlier operational period with only a barrier at Georgiana Slough.

California↗

Review of the Lake Washington Ship Canal and Ballard Locks model, Seattle, Washington, 2014–20

Executive Summary The Hiram M. Chittenden (Ballard) Locks and Lake Washington Ship Canal connect freshwater Lake Washington and saline Shilshole Bay of Puget Sound in Seattle, Washington. The locks and canal allow for ships to traverse this reach. Anadromous salmonids also migrate through, transitioning between saline and freshwater environments, and making use of a fish ladder at the locks when traveling upstream. WEST Consultants, Inc., constructed a two-dimensional hydrodynamic and water-quality model (CE-QUAL-W2) simulating flow, water temperature, and salinity for the Ballard Locks and the Lake Washington Ship Canal. An initial model was built for calendar years 2014–15, and the model was updated using a more recent and modern dataset for calendar years 2016–20. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers requested that the U.S. Geological Survey review this model and its documentation to evaluate the technical aspects of its development and calibration. Findings from this review include the following: Overall, the Lake Washington Ship Canal CE-QUAL-W2 model was well-documented and constructed largely following typical model-development methods. The Lake Washington Ship Canal model was built with CE-QUAL-W2 model version 4.5, compiled and released by Portland State University in April 2021. CE-QUAL-W2 updates and improvements are regularly released with bug fixes and new features, so any model updates would benefit from the use of the most-recent software release. The model grid that represents the Lake Washington Ship Canal bathymetry was 9.2 kilometers (5.7 miles) long, matching the expected length of the waterway. The deepest model segments were near sampling site LLLW (Large Locks site) near the locks. Lake Union is reported to constitute most of the volume of the Lake Washington Ship Canal and is depicted as such in the model grid. The model includes several water outflows at Ballard Locks, including the large and small locks, a saltwater drain, a spillway, smolt flumes, and a fish ladder. Flows from the spillway, smolt flumes, and fish ladder were combined into one structure outflow in the model and assigned one withdrawal elevation from the Lake Washington Ship Canal. The smolt flume and spillway withdraw from the same elevation, but the fish ladder flow withdraws from a higher elevation in Lake Washington Ship Canal, and that flow could be separated into its own withdrawal. The model input files were created using the Coordinated Universal Time standard instead of the more typical choice of using local standard time. This is not incorrect, but sub-daily results would need to be converted to local time for science-communication purposes. The meteorological dataset had some unexpected anomalies, such as a baseline shift in the wind-speed dataset. Other nearby meteorological datasets could be used instead or used to correct the current meteorological inputs. The upstream boundary was configured with water-temperature data from a continuous monitor buoy in Lake Washington. The boundary salinity was set at 0 parts per thousand for the duration of the model simulation. A more realistic estimate of salinity at the upstream boundary could be constructed using data from the same buoy. Saline inflow at the downstream boundary of the Lake Washington Ship Canal model through lock exchanges at the large lock was included as a tributary in the model. Salinity and temperature inputs in this tributary at the large locks were set as constant values for the entire simulation. Saline inflow through the small lock was not included in the model because few data were available, and the input was likely to be small because of the smaller surface area and volume of the small lock relative to the large lock. The model did not include any flow, water temperature, or salinity inputs to the Lake Washington Ship Canal other than at the locks and at the upstream boundary. Any point sources, small tributaries, or stormwater inputs were omitted from the model. It is unclear whether this is a substantial omission relative to model results. Most model parameters were set as defaults or to reasonable values. However, the value of the WINDH parameter, the height of the wind speed measurement, was different than the height of the meteorological site. Compared to measured data, the model simulated water-surface elevations and water temperatures with reasonable accuracy. Differences in the modeled and measured salinities revealed some opportunities to improve the simulation of salinity, both baseline salinity and the salinity maxima in summer and autumn.

Washington↗

Rapid structured decision making for Hypomesus transpacificus (delta smelt) summer–fall freshwater outflow management

Managers of the Central Valley Project (CVP) and State Water Projects (SWP) in California are confronted with difficult tradeoffs between water uses and associated values affected by water management decisions. These decisions involve altering the timing and magnitude of water releases from dams and reservoirs, which can affect habitats for economically important and Federally and State-listed endangered fish species, water deliveries for agriculture or municipalities, and water quality. In this report, we describe the results of a rapid structured decision-making process used to assist management agencies in evaluating tradeoffs while gathering input from cooperating agencies, rightsholders, or interested parties (hereafter participants) through facilitated workshops in spring 2025. Consideration of alternative water management actions was initiated by the continued decline of Hypomesus transpacificus (delta smelt) populations and the issuance of a new biological opinion for the CVP and SWP long-term operations on the effects on delta smelt and other Endangered Species Act-listed species in November 2024. An Executive Order was also issued in January 2025, directing the Bureau of Reclamation to maximize water deliveries. Participants, led by the U.S. Geological Survey and cooperating agencies, identified 8 fundamental values (hereafter objectives) and 11 alternative water management scenarios (or “alternative management actions” based on the PrOACT model). Using multicriteria decision analysis, we evaluated performance (or “consequences” based on a consequence table analysis) and analyzed tradeoffs of alternative water management actions to the fundamental objectives. We ranked the alternative water management actions based on four participants’ objective weights and composite utility scores calculated using a linear value function. The three highest ranking alternative water management actions had the poorest performance for delta smelt but performed best for CVP and SWP water exports and objectives related to coldwater pool operations for salmonids. An optimum strategy that could prevent the extinction of delta smelt was not determined for this study. However, insights gained from our rapid decision analysis suggested nonflow scenarios could benefit the delta smelt population, including in drier years, and could be considered to avoid curtailment of water exports.

Open-File Report↗

Water-quality data from 2002 to 2003 and analysis of data gaps for development of total maximum daily loads in the Lower Klamath River Basin, California

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) collected water-quality data during 2002 and 2003 in the Lower Klamath River Basin, in northern California, to support studies of river conditions as they pertain to the viability of Chinook and Coho salmon and endangered suckers. To address the data needs of the North Coast Regional Water Quality Control Board for the development of Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs), water temperature, dissolved oxygen, specific conductance, and pH were continuously monitored at sites on the Klamath, Trinity, Shasta, and Lost Rivers. Water-quality samples were collected and analyzed for selected nutrients, organic carbon, chlorophyll-a, pheophytin-a, and trace elements. Sediment oxygen demand was measured on the Shasta River. Results of analysis of the data collected were used to identify locations in the Lower Klamath River Basin and periods of time during 2002 and 2003 when river conditions were more likely to be detrimental to salmonid or sucker health because of occasional high water temperatures, low dissolved oxygen, and conditions that supported abundant populations of algae and aquatic plants. The results were also used to assess gaps in data by furthering the development of the conceptual model of water flow and quality in the Lower Klamath River Basin using available data and the current understanding of processes that affect water quality and by assessing needs for the develoment of mathematical models of the system. The most notable gap in information for the study area is in sufficient knowledge about the occurrence and productivity of algal communities. Other gaps in data include vertical water-quality profiles for the reservoirs in the study area, and in an adequate understanding of the chemical oxygen demands and the sediment oxygen demands in the rivers and of the influence of riparian shading on the rivers. Several mathematical models are discussed in this report for use in characterizing the river systems in the study area; also discussed are the specific data needed for the models, and the spatial and temporal data available as boundary conditions. The models will be useful for the future development of TMDLs for temperature, nutrients, and dissolved oxygen and for assessing the role of natural and anthropogenic sources of heat, oxygen-producing and -consuming substances, and nutrients in the Klamath, Shasta, and Lost Rivers.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Influence of Cougar Reservoir Drawdown on Sediment and DDT Transport and Deposition in the McKenzie River Basin, Oregon, Water Years 2002-04

Construction of a selective withdrawal tower at Cougar Reservoir in the South Fork McKenzie River, Oregon, during 2002-05 resulted in a prolonged release of sediment and high-turbidity water to downstream reaches throughout the summer of 2002, with additional episodic releases during storms in the following winters. Suspended-sediment concentrations and loads at five continuously monitored turbidity and discharge gaging stations were estimated using regression methods. Deposition in salmonid spawning beds was measured using infiltration bags. Stations were located upstream and downstream of Cougar Reservoir in the South Fork McKenzie River, in the mainstem of the McKenzie River upstream of the South Fork and downstream of Blue River, and in Blue River downstream of Blue River Reservoir. During 2002, Cougar Reservoir released approximately 17,000 tons of suspended sediment into the South Fork McKenzie River, or more than twice the incoming load from the South Fork upstream of the reservoir. In 2003 and 2004, the release of sediment from Cougar Reservoir decreased to 10,900 and 4,100 tons, respectively. Although Cougar Reservoir likely was a substantial source of sediment to the lower reaches during water years 2002 and 2003, the lack of continuous turbidity monitoring at stations other than the South Fork McKenzie River prior to January 2003 prevents quantification of the actual contribution to the mainstem. During water year 2004, the only year with complete records at all sites, Cougar Reservoir released about 24 percent (4,100 tons) of the sediment load estimated on the mainstem near Vida (16,900 tons); however, the relative contribution of Cougar Reservoir is expected to have been substantially larger during 2002 and 2003 when the newly exposed river channel in the upper reaches of the reservoir was actively eroding and migrating. Deposition of fine (less than 0.063-millimeter diameter) sediment into spawning beds, measured with the use of deployed infiltration bags, was greatest downstream of Cougar and Blue River Reservoirs (1.0 and 1.2 percent of total sediments, respectively). Deposition was least in the high-energy, unregulated environments (about 0.25 percent) of the South Fork McKenzie River above Cougar Reservoir and in the mainstem above the South Fork, and intermediate near Vida, the most downstream site on the mainstem. DDT, applied throughout much of the upper McKenzie River drainage basin to control spruce budworm during the 1950s, was detected in the South Fork near Rainbow in the form of its metabolites DDD and DDE in fine sediment captured in the infiltration bags. DDE also was detected in infiltration bags deployed in the McKenzie River near Vida, downstream of the South Fork. All concentrations of DDD and DDE were less than the aquatic-life criterion for bed sediment. DDT species were not detected in water samples, including samples collected during large storms. The reservoir apparently acted as a trap for sediment and DDT throughout the course of its existence, facilitating degradation of the trapped DDT, and may have been a source for both during the construction period in 2002-05, but the lack of detections during storms indicates that DDT transport was small. Transport of detectable amounts of DDT likely was limited to periods of high suspended-sediment concentrations (greater than 75-100 milligrams per liter). Infiltration bags were deployed during August 2003-July 2004 and were a useful device for measuring fine-sediment deposition and for chemical analysis of the deposited material. Deposition of fine-grained sediment downstream of the flood-control dams may be reduced if bed-moving events can be periodically reintroduced to those reaches.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Conceptual Model of Hydrologic and Thermal Conditions of the Eastbank Aquifer System near Rocky Reach Dam, Douglas County, Washington

The Lower and Combined Aquifers of the Eastbank Aquifer system, located in a river-terrace deposit along the Columbia River near Rocky Reach Dam, Washington, are primarily recharged by the Columbia River and provide water to the Eastbank Hatchery and the regional water system servicing the cities of Wenatchee, East Wenatchee, and parts of unincorporated Chelan and Douglas Counties. In 2006, mean annual pumpage from the aquifers by the hatchery and regional water system was about 43 and 16 cubic feet per second, respectively. Reportedly, temperatures of ground water pumped by the hatchery have been increasing, thereby making water potentially too warm for salmonid fish production. An evaluation of hourly ground-water and river temperatures from January 1991 through August 2007 indicates increasing interannual trends in temperatures in most of the Lower and Combined Aquifers from 1999 through 2006 that correspond to increasing trends in the annual mean and annual maximum river temperatures during the same period of 0.07 and 0.17?C per year, respectively. There were no trends in the annual minimum river temperatures from 1999 through 2006, and there were no trends in the annual minimum, mean, and maximum river temperatures from 1991 through 1998 and from 1991 through 2007. Increases in river temperatures from 1999 through 2006 are within the natural variability of the river temperatures. Most of the Lower and Combined Aquifers reached thermal equilibrium?defined by constant time lags between changes in river temperatures and subsequent changes in ground-water temperatures?during 1991?98. The only exceptions are the Combined Aquifer north of the well field of the regional water system, which had not reached thermal equilibrium by 2006, and the Lower Aquifer west of the well fields of the hatchery and the regional water system, which reached thermal equilibrium prior to 1991. Because most of the Lower and Combined Aquifers were in thermal equilibrium from 1999 through 2006 and seasonal pumpage patterns were relatively stable, reported trends of increasing temperatures of water pumped by the hatchery well field are most likely explained by increasing trends in river temperatures. Most of the water pumped by the hatchery well field recharges in an area west to southwest of the well field about 2 months prior to the time it is pumped from the aquifer. The northern extent of the hatchery well field may pump some colder water from a bedrock depression to the north and west of the well field. The conceptual model of hydrologic and thermal conditions is supported by analyses of historical water temperatures, water-level data collected on July 18, 2007, and dissolved-constituent and bacterial concentrations in samples collected on August 20?22, 2007.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Water quality and hydrology of the Silver River Watershed, Baraga County, Michigan, 2005-08

The Silver River Watershed comprises about 69 square miles and drains part of northeastern Baraga County, Michigan. For generations, tribal members of the Keweenaw Bay Indian Community have hunted and fished in the watershed. Tribal government and members of Keweenaw Bay Indian Community are concerned about the effect of any development within the watershed, which is rural, isolated, and lightly populated. For decades, the area has been explored for various minerals. Since 2004, several mineral-exploration firms have been actively investigating areas within the watershed; property acquisition, road construction, and subsurface drilling have taken place close to tributary streams of the Silver River. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Keweenaw Bay Indian Community, conducted a multi-year water-resources investigation of the Silver River Watershed during 2005-08. Methods of investigation included analyses of streamflow, water-quality sampling, and ecology at eight discrete sites located throughout the watershed. In addition, three continuous-record streamgages located within the watershed provided stage, discharge, specific conductance, and water-temperature data on an hourly basis. Water quality of the Silver River Watershed is typical of many streams in undeveloped areas of Upper Michigan. Concentrations of most analytes typically were low, although several exceeded applicable surface-water-quality standards. Seven samples had concentrations of copper that exceeded the Michigan Department of Environmental Quality standards for wildlife, and one sample had concentrations of cyanide that exceeded the same standards. Concentrations of total mercury at all eight sampling sites exceeded the Great Lakes Basin water-quality standard, but the ratio of methylmercury to total mercury was similar to the 5 to 10 percent found in most natural waters. Concentrations of arsenic and chromium in bed sediments were near the threshold-effect concentration. A qualitative ecological assessment of fishes and macroinvertebrates showed that intolerant salmonids were present at most sampled sites, and macroinvertebrate communities were indicative of near-excellent or excellent conditions at all eight sites. This baseline information will aid in an ongoing monitoring effort designed to protect the water resources of the

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Regional Regression Equations to Estimate Flow-Duration Statistics at Ungaged Stream Sites in Connecticut

Multiple linear regression equations for determining flow-duration statistics were developed to estimate select flow exceedances ranging from 25- to 99-percent for six 'bioperiods'-Salmonid Spawning (November), Overwinter (December-February), Habitat Forming (March-April), Clupeid Spawning (May), Resident Spawning (June), and Rearing and Growth (July-October)-in Connecticut. Regression equations also were developed to estimate the 25- and 99-percent flow exceedances without reference to a bioperiod. In total, 32 equations were developed. The predictive equations were based on regression analyses relating flow statistics from streamgages to GIS-determined basin and climatic characteristics for the drainage areas of those streamgages. Thirty-nine streamgages (and an additional 6 short-term streamgages and 28 partial-record sites for the non-bioperiod 99-percent exceedance) in Connecticut and adjacent areas of neighboring States were used in the regression analysis. Weighted least squares regression analysis was used to determine the predictive equations; weights were assigned based on record length. The basin characteristics-drainage area, percentage of area with coarse-grained stratified deposits, percentage of area with wetlands, mean monthly precipitation (November), mean seasonal precipitation (December, January, and February), and mean basin elevation-are used as explanatory variables in the equations. Standard errors of estimate of the 32 equations ranged from 10.7 to 156 percent with medians of 19.2 and 55.4 percent to predict the 25- and 99-percent exceedances, respectively. Regression equations to estimate high and median flows (25- to 75-percent exceedances) are better predictors (smaller variability of the residual values around the regression line) than the equations to estimate low flows (less than 75-percent exceedance). The Habitat Forming (March-April) bioperiod had the smallest standard errors of estimate, ranging from 10.7 to 20.9 percent. In contrast, the Rearing and Growth (July-October) bioperiod had the largest standard errors, ranging from 30.9 to 156 percent. The adjusted coefficient of determination of the equations ranged from 77.5 to 99.4 percent with medians of 98.5 and 90.6 percent to predict the 25- and 99-percent exceedances, respectively. Descriptive information on the streamgages used in the regression, measured basin and climatic characteristics, and estimated flow-duration statistics are provided in this report. Flow-duration statistics and the 32 regression equations for estimating flow-duration statistics in Connecticut are stored on the U.S. Geological Survey World Wide Web application ?StreamStats? (http://water.usgs.gov/osw/streamstats/index.html). The regression equations developed in this report can be used to produce unbiased estimates of select flow exceedances statewide.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Water-quality and biological conditions in selected tributaries of the Lower Boise River, southwestern Idaho, water years 2009-12

Water-quality conditions were studied in selected tributaries of the lower Boise River during water years 2009–12, including Fivemile and Tenmile Creeks in 2009, Indian Creek in 2010, and Mason Creek in 2011 and 2012. Biological samples, including periphyton biomass and chlorophyll-a, benthic macroinvertebrates, and fish were collected in Mason Creek in October 2011. Synoptic water-quality sampling events were timed to coincide with the beginning and middle of the irrigation season as well as the non-irrigation season, and showed that land uses and irrigation practices affect water quality in the selected tributaries. Large increases in nutrient and sediment concentrations and loads occurred over relatively short stream reaches and affected nutrient and sediment concentrations downstream of those reaches. Escherichia coli (E. coli) values increased in study reaches adjacent to pastured lands or wastewater treatment plants, but increased E. coli values at upstream locations did not necessarily affect E. coli values at downstream locations. A spatial loading analysis identified source areas for nutrients, sediment, and E. coli , and might be useful in selecting locations for water-quality improvement projects. Effluent from wastewater treatment plants increased nutrient loads in specific reaches in Fivemile and Indian Creeks. Increased suspended-sediment loads were associated with increased discharge from irrigation returns in each of the studied tributaries. Samples collected during or shortly after storms showed that surface runoff, particularly during the winter, may be an important source of nutrients in tributary watersheds with substantial agricultural land use. Concentrations of total phosphorus, suspended sediment, and E. coli exceeded regulatory water-quality targets or trigger levels at one or more monitoring sites in each tributary studied, and exceedences occurred during irrigation season more often than during non-irrigation season. As with water-quality sampling results, bottom-sediment samples analyzed for contaminants of emerging concern indicated that adjacent land uses can affect in-stream conditions. Contaminants of emerging concern were detected in four categories: urban compounds, industrial compounds, fecal steroids, and personal care products. Compounds in one or more of the four contaminant categories were detected at higher concentrations in upstream sites than in downstream sites in the tributaries and in the lower Boise River. High concentrations of compounds in upstream locations indicated that adjacent land use might be an important factor in contributing contaminants of emerging concern to the lower Boise River watershed. Expanded monitoring at Mason Creek near the mouth included a streamgage, a continuous water-quality monitor, and monthly water-quality sample collection. Data collected during expanded monitoring efforts at Mason Creek near the mouth provided information to develop and compare water-quality models. Regression models were developed using turbidity, discharge, and seasonality as surrogates to estimate concentrations of water-quality constituents. Daily streamflow also was used in a load model to estimate daily loads of water-quality constituents. Surrogate regression models may be useful for long-term monitoring and generally performed better than other models to estimate concentrations and loads of total phosphorus, total nitrogen, and suspended sediment in Mason Creek. Biological sampling results from Mason Creek showed low periphyton biomass and chlorophyll-a concentrations compared to those historically measured in the Boise River near Parma, Idaho, during October and November. The most abundant invertebrate found in Mason Creek was the highly tolerant and invasive New Zealand mudsnail ( Potamopyrgus antipodarum ). The presence of small rainbow trout (90 millimeters) may indicate salmonid spawning in Mason Creek. The rangeland-fish-index score of 58 for Mason Creek is comparable to rangeland-fish-index scores calculated for the Boise River near Middleton, indicating intermediate biotic condition.

Idaho↗

Hydrogeologic framework and groundwater/surface-water interactions of the South Fork Nooksack River Basin, northwestern Washington

A hydrogeologic framework of the South Fork (SF) Nooksack River Basin in northwestern Washington was developed and hydrologic data were collected to characterize the groundwater-flow system and its interaction with surface‑water features. In addition to domestic, agricultural, and commercial uses of groundwater within the SF Nooksack River Basin, groundwater has the potential to provide ecological benefits by maintaining late-summer streamflows and buffering stream temperatures. Cold-water refugia, created and maintained in part by groundwater, have been identified by water-resource managers as key elements to restore the health and viability of threatened salmonids in the SF Nooksack River. The SF Nooksack River drains a 183-square mile area of the North Cascades and the Puget Lowland underlain by unconsolidated glacial and alluvial sediments deposited over older sedimentary, metamorphic, and igneous bedrock. The primary aquifer that interacts with the SF Nooksack River was mapped within unconsolidated glacial outwash and alluvial sediment. The lower extent of this unit is bounded by bedrock and fine-grained, poorly sorted unconsolidated glaciomarine and glaciolacustrine sediments. In places, these deposits overlie and confine an aquifer within older glacial sediments. The extent and thickness of the hydrogeologic units were assembled from mapped geologic units and lithostratigraphic logs of field-inventoried wells. Generalized groundwater-flow directions within the surficial aquifer were interpreted from groundwater levels measured in August 2012; and groundwater seepage gains and losses to the SF Nooksack River were calculated from synoptic streamflow measurements made in the SF Nooksack River and its tributaries in September 2012. A subset of the field-inventoried wells was measured at a monthly interval to determine seasonal fluctuations in groundwater levels during water year 2013. Taken together, these data provide the foundation for a future groundwater-flow model of the SF Nooksack River Basin that may be used to investigate the potential effects of future climate change, land use, and groundwater pumping on water resources in the study area. Site-specific hydrologic data, including time series of longitudinal temperature profiles measured with a fiber-optic distributed temperature sensor and continuous monitoring of stream stage and water levels measured in wells in adjacent wetlands and aquifers, also were measured to characterize the interaction among the SF Nooksack River, surficial aquifers, and riparian wetlands.

Washington↗

Aquatic biological communities and associated habitats at selected sites in the Big Wood River Watershed, south-central Idaho, 2014

Assessments of streamflow (discharge) parameters, water quality, physical habitat, and biological communities were completed between May and September 2014 as part of a monitoring program in the Big Wood River watershed of south-central Idaho. The sampling was conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with Blaine County, Trout Unlimited, the Nature Conservancy, and the Wood River Land Trust to help identify the status of aquatic resources at selected locations in the watershed. Information in this report provides a basis with which to evaluate and monitor the long-term health of the Big Wood River and its major tributaries. Sampling sites were co-located with existing U.S. Geological Survey streamgaging stations: three on the main stem Big Wood River and four on the North Fork Big Wood River (North Fork), Warm Springs Creek (Warm Sp), Trail Creek (Trail Ck), and East Fork Big Wood River (East Fork) tributaries. The analytical results and quality-assurance information for water quality, physical habitat, and biological community samples collected at study sites during 2 weeks in September 2014 are summarized. Water-quality data include concentrations of major nutrients, suspended sediment, dissolved oxygen, and fecal-coliform bacteria. To assess the potential effects of nutrient enrichment on algal growth, concentrations of periphyton biomass (chlorophyll- a and ash free dry weight) in riffle habitats were determined at each site. Physical habitat parameters include stream channel morphology, habitat volume, instream structure, substrate composition, and riparian vegetative cover. Biological data include taxa richness, abundance, and stream-health indicator metrics for macroinvertebrate and fish communities. Statistical summaries of the water-quality, habitat, and biological data are provided along with discussion of how these findings relate to the health of aquatic resources in the Big Wood River watershed. Seasonal discharge patterns using statistical summaries of daily discharge from selected sites are reported for water years 2012–15. Results showed that annual average daily mean discharge increased from the Big Wood River near Ketchum, ID (BW Ketchum) downstream to the Big Wood River at Hailey, ID (BW Hailey), but decreased by nearly 50 percent from BW Hailey downstream to Big Wood River at Stanton Crossing near Bellevue, ID (BW Stanton). Annual variability in daily mean discharge among main-stem sites was highest at BW Stanton, suggesting that this part of the river may be subject to some level of flow alteration. Hydrologic alterations resulting in flow reduction can contribute to higher water temperature, especially during the summer months when conditions are often most stressful to fish and other stream organisms. Daily water temperature and water temperature trends from June to September 2014 are reported for select tributary and main-stem sites on the Big Wood River and can be used to assess the potential for biological impairment based on aquatic life temperature criteria for cold-water streams. The State of Idaho maximum temperature criteria for protection of cold-water aquatic life of 22 °C was exceeded at Warm Sp and BW Stanton during summer 2014, but at none of the other main-stem or tributary sites. The 13 °C critical temperature criterion for salmonid spawning was exceeded in early July 2014 at BW Ketchum and BW Hailey near the end of the rainbow trout critical spawning and rearing period. Temperature exceedances were most frequent at BW Stanton, where exceedances for rainbow trout and brown trout occurred from May through early July 2014 during most of the critical spawning and rearing period. Water quality and habitat availability did not seem to be limiting for fish or other aquatic organisms at most sites in the Big Wood River watershed. Water quality assessments in September 2014 determined no exceedances of total maximum daily load target levels. The availability and quality of habitat was limited at BW Stanton, where shallow-water habitat conditions prevailed. Macroinvertebrate community diversity was high at all sites except for BW Stanton, where low community diversity was attributed to low species richness and high abundances of a few tolerant taxa. Presence of low species diversity and high macroinvertebrate tolerance values at BW Stanton indicates that benthic community condition and stream health were reduced at that location. Fish surveys done in September 2014 did not indicate any significant reductions in native fish communities in the Big Wood River or its tributaries. Native rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) and Wood River sculpin ( Cottus leiopomus ) were the dominant fish species in the drainage and were found at all tributary and main-stem sites. Non-native brown ( Salmo trutta ) and brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) were limited to lower drainage sites on the Big Wood River (BW Hailey and BW Stanton), and occurred in relatively low numbers.

Idaho↗

Suspended sediment, turbidity, and stream water temperature in the Sauk River Basin, western Washington, water years 2012-16

The Sauk River is a federally designated Wild and Scenic River that drains a relatively undisturbed landscape along the western slope of the North Cascade Mountain Range, Washington, which includes the glaciated volcano, Glacier Peak. Naturally high sediment loads characteristic of basins draining volcanoes like Glacier Peak make the Sauk River a dominant contributor of sediment to the downstream main stem river, the Skagit River. Additionally, the Sauk River serves as important spawning and rearing habitat for several salmonid species in the greater Skagit River system. Because of the importance of sediment to morphology, flow-conveyance, and ecosystem condition, there is interest in understanding the magnitude and timing of suspended sediment and turbidity from the Sauk River system and its principal tributaries, the White Chuck and Suiattle Rivers, to the Skagit River. Suspended-sediment measurements, turbidity data, and water temperature data were collected at two U.S. Geological Survey streamgages in the upper and middle reaches of the Sauk River over a 4-year period extending from October 2011 to September 2015, and at a downstream location in the lower river for a 5-year period extending from October 2011 to September 2016. Over the collective 5-year study period, mean annual suspended-sediment loads at the three streamgages on the upper, middle, and lower Sauk River streamgages were 94,200 metric tons (t), 203,000 t, and 940,000 t streamgages, respectively. Fine (smaller than 0.0625 millimeter) total suspended-sediment load averaged 49 percent at the upper Sauk River streamgage, 42 percent at the middle Sauk River streamgage, and 34 percent at the lower Sauk River streamgage.

Washington↗

Arsenic, antimony, mercury, and water temperature in streams near Stibnite mining area, central Idaho, 2011–17

Mineralization and historical mining of stibnite (antimony sulfide), tungsten, gold, silver, and mercury in the headwaters of the East Fork of the South Fork Salmon River (EFSFSR) near the former town of Stibnite in central Idaho resulted in water-quality impairments related to mercury, antimony, and arsenic. Additionally, mining-related disturbances and wildfires have resulted in a lack of riparian shade in some areas, likely impacting water temperatures. In 2011, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Midas Gold Corporation and the Idaho Department of Lands, began a study to characterize the spatial and temporal occurrence of trace metals to the EFSFSR. Five sites on the EFSFSR and its tributaries (Meadow and Sugar Creeks) were sampled about six times annually during 2011–17, during a range of streamflow conditions, for a total of 36–40 samples per location. Continuous water temperature, specific conductance, and streamflow also were measured at each site. The purpose of this report is to update previously reported information related to arsenic, antimony, mercury, and water temperature. Concentrations of dissolved arsenic and antimony generally increased from upstream to downstream in the EFSFSR. At the upstream site, upstream of the Meadow Creek confluence, dissolved arsenic and antimony concentrations averaged 8.86 and 0.93 micrograms per liter (μg/L), respectively. Downstream, upstream from the Sugar Creek confluence, average dissolved concentrations increased to 56.5 and 27.9 μg/L, respectively. All samples from the downstream EFSFSR site exceeded the human-health based criterion for both dissolved arsenic (10 µg/L) and dissolved antimony (5.6 µg/L). The chronic aquatic life criterion for dissolved arsenic (150 μg/L) was not exceeded (the maximum sample concentration was 108 μg/L), and aquatic life criteria for antimony have not been established. The highest concentrations of both dissolved arsenic and dissolved antimony occurred during low-flow periods (July–March), suggesting the constituents are present in groundwater. In contrast, total mercury concentrations were highest during high-flow periods (April–June) and were particulate-associated, suggesting that mercury is present in surface materials. At Sugar Creek, where the highest total mercury concentrations were measured, 97 percent of samples exceeded the chronic aquatic life criterion (0.012 μg/L) and 11 percent exceeded the acute criterion (2.1 μg/L). At all sites, summertime water temperatures frequently exceeded criteria related to salmonid spawning. Surrogate models previously developed to estimate continuous concentrations of arsenic, antimony, and mercury were reevaluated and updated, and the importance of explanatory variables on constituent concentrations is discussed. Results from this study can help guide future remediation locations and strategies, and provide a baseline against which future changes can be measured.

Idaho↗

Estimating stream temperature in the Willamette River Basin, northwestern Oregon—A regression-based approach

The alteration of thermal regimes, including increased temperatures and shifts in seasonality, is a key challenge to the health and survival of federally protected cold-water salmonids in streams of the Willamette River basin in northwestern Oregon. To better support threatened fish species, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) and other water managers seek to improve the thermal regime in the Willamette River and key tributaries downstream of USACE dams by utilizing strategically timed flow releases from USACE dams. To inform flow management decisions, regression relations were developed for 12 Willamette River basin locations below USACE dams relating stream temperature with streamflow and air temperature utilizing publicly available datasets spanning 2000–18. The resulting relations provide simple tools to investigate stream temperature responses to changes in streamflow and climatic conditions in the Willamette River system. Regression relations on the Willamette River and key tributaries show that, at locations sufficiently distant from the direct temperature influence of upstream dam releases, air temperature and streamflow are reasonable proxies to predict the 7-day average of the daily mean (7dADMean) and 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) water temperature with errors generally ≤1 degrees Celsius (°C). To account for seasonal variations in the relation between air temperature, streamflow, and stream temperature, a transition-smoothed, seasonal regression approach was used. Stream temperature is inversely correlated with streamflow in all seasons except “winter” (January–March), when it is relatively independent. Stream temperature is positively correlated with air temperature in all seasons, but the slope decreases at very low or very high air temperatures. Generally, fit is best for seasonal models “winter” (January–March), “spring” (April–May), “summer” (June–August), and “early autumn” (September–October). Error in “autumn” (November–December) is larger, probably due to variation in the onset timing of winter storms. Simulated results from a climatological analysis of predicted stream temperature suggest that, excluding extremes and accounting for some seasonal variability, the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature sensitivity to air temperature and streamflow varies by location on the river. To investigate the potential range of stream temperature variability based on historical air temperature and streamflow conditions, stream temperature predictions were calculated using synthetic time series comprised of daily temperature values representing the 0.10, 0.33, 0.50, 0.67, and 0.90 quantile of air temperature and streamflow from 1954 (the year meaningful streamflow augmentation began) to 2018. Results show that from a “very hot” (0.90 quantile) and “very dry” (0.10 quantile) year to a “very cool” (0.10 quantile) and “very wet” (0.90; all quantiles from 1954 to 2018) year, the stream temperature sensitivity to air temperature and streamflow is about 3 °C at Harrisburg (river mile 161.0) and increases to about 5 °C at Keizer (river mile 82.2). While the number of days exceeding regulatory criteria are fewer in cooler, wetter years than in warmer, dryer years, the models suggest that the Willamette River will likely continue to exceed the State of Oregon maximum water-temperature criterion of 18 °C for sustained periods from late spring to early autumn and that the flow management practices evaluated in this study, while effective at influencing stream temperature, likely cannot prevent many or all such exceedances. As modeled for 2018, a representative very hot year with normal to below-normal streamflow, stream temperature sensitivity to changes in streamflow of ±100 to ±1000 cubic feet per second produced mean monthly temperature changes from 0.0 to 1.4 °C at Keizer, Albany, and Harrisburg during summer. For a specified change in flow, temperature sensitivity is greater at upstream locations where streamflow is less than that at downstream locations because the change in streamflow is a greater percentage of total streamflow at upstream locations. Similarly, temperature response to a set change in flow is greater in the summer and early autumn low-flow season than in spring when flows are higher. The regression models developed in this study thus indicate that flow management is likely to have a greater effect on stream temperature at upstream locations (such as Harrisburg or Albany) and during the low-flow season than at downstream locations (such as Keizer) or during periods of higher streamflow.

Oregon↗

Streambed scour of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.) redds in the Sauk River, Northwestern Washington

The autumn and winter flood season of western Washington coincides with the incubation period of many Pacific salmon ( Onchorhynchus spp.) populations. During this period, salmon embryos incubating within gravel nests called “redds” are vulnerable to mobilization of surrounding sediment during floods. As overlying sediment is transported downstream, the vertical position of the streambed can be lowered, a process termed streambed scour; thus developing salmon embryos may be destroyed resulting in decreasing egg-to-fry survival rates. The Sauk River, which drains a 1,900 km 2 (733.5 mi 2 ) area of the central Cascade Range of Washington State, provides spawning and rearing habitat for several species of Pacific salmon including Chinook salmon ( O. tshawytscha ), which were listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) in 1999. In order to assess the hydrologic conditions when streambed scour and concomitant geomorphic changes occur, accelerometer scour monitors (ASMs), which record the time when streambed scour lowers the streambed to the level of salmon egg pockets, were deployed in two geomorphically different reaches of the Sauk River to monitor scour during water year 2018. Nineteen ASMs were deployed in an upstream reach, which was largely confined by valley walls with vegetated, stable banks and low channel-migration rates near the confluence of the Sauk and White Chuck Rivers. Twelve additional ASMs were deployed in a downstream reach within an unconfined valley with unvegetated, unstable banks and high channel-migration rates between the town of Darrington and the confluence of the Sauk and Suiattle Rivers. During the ASM deployment, discharge measured at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamgage Sauk River above White Chuck River, near Darrington, Washington (12186000), peaked at 479 m 3 /s (16,900 ft 3 /s) with an estimated 0.18 probability of annual exceedance (5.7-year recurrence interval). During the flood season, large-scale geomorphic changes, including channel migration and bar deposition, were measured at the downstream reach, but only minimal geomorphic changes were measured at the upstream reach. ASMs deployed at the downstream reach were not recovered after the flood season and total scour depth was presumed to have exceeded ASM anchor depth. At the upstream reach, 7 of the 19 deployed ASMs were recovered after the flood season and all recovered ASMs recorded scour at discharges that equaled or exceeded 204 m 3 /s (7,210 ft 3 /s). The remaining 12 ASMs deployed at the upstream reach were not recovered and total scour depth was presumed to have exceeded ASM anchor depth. Collectively, this analysis enhances the ability of fisheries managers to forecast egg-to-fry survival rates of salmonids by determining the hydrologic conditions at which scour at the level of salmon redds initiates.

Washington↗

Geohydrology and water quality of the northern and central parts of the Tug Hill glacial aquifer, Jefferson and Oswego Counties, north-central New York

The northern and central parts of the Tug Hill glacial aquifer consist of a 29-mile-long, crescent-shaped, mixture of glaciofluvial, glaciolacustrine, and recent alluvial deposits of predominantly sand and gravel on the western side of the Tug Hill Plateau in Jefferson and Oswego Counties in north-central New York. Approximately 11,400 people are supplied by groundwater that is withdrawn from municipal and nonmunicipal wells in the northern and central parts of the aquifer. In addition, many farms, several industries, and a large New York State fish hatchery also rely on the water from the aquifer. In the early 2000s, anticipated developmental pressures from potential new industries (including a proposed water-bottling plant in the central part of the Tug Hill glacial aquifer) and expansion of the Fort Drum military base north of Watertown (with the projected increase in population extending into the northern part of the aquifer) prompted the Tug Hill Commission, local municipal officials, and representatives from the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation to initiate a geohydrologic study with the U.S. Geological Survey. The information from this study is intended to help the state, counties, and local communities make sound policy decisions about their use of this large groundwater resource. The northern part of the Tug Hill glacial aquifer is a combination of glaciofluvial outwash and alluvial sand and gravel in the Sandy Creek Valley northeast of Adams, New York, and mostly glaciolacustrine beach and deltaic sand or sand and gravel north and south of the village of Adams. The southern and eastern areas of the central part of the aquifer are composed mostly of glaciofluvial sediments such as kames, kame moraines, and kame terraces, whereas most of the western areas of the central part are composed mostly of glaciolacustrine sediments such as deltaic sand and beach sand and gravel. The northern and central parts of the aquifer are unconfined. Recharge to the northern and central parts of the aquifer is from three main sources: (1) precipitation that falls directly onto the aquifer; (2) unchannelized runoff (overland flow) and groundwater from till and bedrock in the Tug Hill Plateau that seeps into the eastern side of the aquifer; and (3) streams that drain the Tug Hill Plateau and flow across and lose water to the aquifer. Groundwater discharges to springs, seeps, headwaters of streams, and wetlands in the middle area of the central part of the aquifer and along the entire western boundary of the northern and central parts of the aquifer; pumping wells; artificial ditches; and deeply incised streams in the northern and central parts of the aquifer. The groundwater discharge to such streams is critical in supporting the salmonid fishery in the central part of the aquifer. Groundwater levels were measured on July 17, 2014, at 22 wells throughout the northern and central parts of the aquifer. Water-table contours were drawn on the basis of the measured July 2014 water levels, historical water-level data, and surface-water levels where surface water in the channels was expected to be hydraulically connected to the groundwater system. The water table generally slopes from east to west throughout the northern and central parts of the aquifer; this slope also indicates that the direction of groundwater flow is generally from east to west. Water-quality samples were collected from 23 stream sites during base-flow conditions, and groundwater-quality and other types of environmental samples were collected from 20 wells in the northern and central parts of the Tug Hill glacial aquifer. The results of the sampling indicate that surface water and groundwater are generally of good quality. Comparison of the median concentration values of major ions in groundwater samples indicated that hardness in the northern part of the aquifer was about twice as great, and concentrations of calcium and sodium were more than three times as great, as in the central part of the aquifer. As was the case with surface water, the much greater median concentrations in groundwater of calcium, hardness, and alkalinity in the northern part of the aquifer are due to the dissolution of limestone that underlies most of that area and to the high-carbonate content of the clasts in the sand and gravel. There was little to no difference among the median values for bromide, fluoride, silica, and iron in the two parts of the aquifer. Concentrations of most other major ions were slightly greater in the northern part than in the central part of the Tug Hill glacial aquifer, except for magnesium, whose concentration was greater in the central part. Median concentrations of nutrients were generally greatest in surface water and groundwater in the northern part of the aquifer.

New York↗