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At least 955 records · Page 53Linked to original sources
USGS2014

Inner-shelf circulation and sediment dynamics on a series of shoreface connected ridges offshore of Fire Island, NY

Locations along the inner-continental shelf offshore of Fire Island, NY, are characterized by a series of shoreface-connected ridges (SFCRs). These sand ridges have approximate dimensions of 10 km in length, 3 km spacing, and up to ∼8 m ridge to trough relief and are oriented obliquely at approximately 30° clockwise from the coastline. Stability analysis from previous studies explains how sand ridges such as these could be formed and maintained by storm-driven flows directed alongshore with a key maintenance mechanism of offshore deflected flows over ridge crests and onshore in the troughs. We examine these processes both with a limited set of idealized numerical simulations and analysis of observational data. Model results confirm that alongshore flows over the SFCRs exhibit offshore veering of currents over the ridge crests and onshore-directed flows in the troughs, and demonstrate the opposite circulation pattern for a reverse wind. To further investigate these maintenance processes, oceanographic instruments were deployed at seven sites on the SFCRs offshore of Fire Island to measure water levels, ocean currents, waves, suspended sediment concentrations, and bottom stresses from January to April 2012. Data analysis reveals that during storms with winds from the northeast, the processes of offshore deflection of currents over ridge crests and onshore in the troughs were observed, and during storm events with winds from the southwest, a reverse flow pattern over the ridges occurred. Computations of suspended sediment fluxes identify periods that are consistent with SFCR maintenance mechanisms. Alongshore winds from the northeast drove fluxes offshore on the ridge crest and onshore in the trough that would tend to promote ridge maintenance. However, alongshore winds from the southwest drove opposite circulations. The wind fields are related to different storm types that occur in the region (low-pressure systems, cold fronts, and warm fronts). From the limited data set, we identify that low-pressure systems drive sediment fluxes that tend to promote stability and maintain the SFCRs while cold front type storms appear to drive circulations that are in the opposite sense and may not be a supporting mechanism for ridge maintenance.

New York↗
USGS2013

Twentieth-century global-mean sea level rise: Is the whole greater than the sum of the parts?

Confidence in projections of global-mean sea level rise (GMSLR) depends on an ability to account for GMSLR during the twentieth century. There are contributions from ocean thermal expansion, mass loss from glaciers and ice sheets, groundwater extraction, and reservoir impoundment. Progress has been made toward solving the “enigma” of twentieth-century GMSLR, which is that the observed GMSLR has previously been found to exceed the sum of estimated contributions, especially for the earlier decades. The authors propose the following: thermal expansion simulated by climate models may previously have been underestimated because of their not including volcanic forcing in their control state; the rate of glacier mass loss was larger than previously estimated and was not smaller in the first half than in the second half of the century; the Greenland ice sheet could have made a positive contribution throughout the century; and groundwater depletion and reservoir impoundment, which are of opposite sign, may have been approximately equal in magnitude. It is possible to reconstruct the time series of GMSLR from the quantified contributions, apart from a constant residual term, which is small enough to be explained as a long-term contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet. The reconstructions account for the observation that the rate of GMSLR was not much larger during the last 50 years than during the twentieth century as a whole, despite the increasing anthropogenic forcing. Semiempirical methods for projecting GMSLR depend on the existence of a relationship between global climate change and the rate of GMSLR, but the implication of the authors' closure of the budget is that such a relationship is weak or absent during the twentieth century.

Journal of Climate↗
USGS2015

Quantifying 10 years of improved earthquake-monitoring performance in the Caribbean region

Over 75 tsunamis have been documented in the Caribbean and adjacent regions during the past 500 years. Since 1500, at least 4484 people are reported to have perished in these killer waves. Hundreds of thousands are currently threatened along the Caribbean coastlines. Were a great tsunamigenic earthquake to occur in the Caribbean region today, the effects would potentially be catastrophic due to an increasingly vulnerable region that has seen significant population increases in the past 40–50 years and currently hosts an estimated 500,000 daily beach visitors from North America and Europe, a majority of whom are not likely aware of tsunami and earthquake hazards. Following the magnitude 9.1 Sumatra–Andaman Islands earthquake of 26 December 2004, the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) Intergovernmental Coordination Group (ICG) for the Tsunami and other Coastal Hazards Early Warning System for the Caribbean and Adjacent Regions (CARIBE‐EWS) was established and developed minimum performance standards for the detection and analysis of earthquakes. In this study, we model earthquake‐magnitude detection threshold and P‐wave detection time and demonstrate that the requirements established by the UNESCO ICG CARIBE‐EWS are met with 100% of the network operating. We demonstrate that earthquake‐monitoring performance in the Caribbean Sea region has improved significantly in the past decade as the number of real‐time seismic stations available to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration tsunami warning centers have increased. We also identify weaknesses in the current international network and provide guidance for selecting the optimal distribution of seismic stations contributed from existing real‐time broadband national networks in the region.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS1997

Offset-vertical seismic profiling for marine gas hydrate exploration: Is it a suitable technique? First results from ODP Leg 164

Walkaway vertical seismic profiles were acquired during Ocean Drilling Project (ODP) Leg 164 at the Blake Ridge to investigate seismic properties of hydrate-bearing sediments and the zone of free gas beneath them. An evaluation of compressional (P-) wave arrivals Site 994 indicates P-wave anisotrophy in the sediment column. We identified several shear (S-) wave arrivals in the horizontal components of the geophone array in the borehole and in data recorded with an ocean bottom seismometer deployed at the seafloor. S-waves were converted from P-waves at several depth levels in the sediment column. One of the most prominent conversion points appears to be the bottom simulating reflector (BSR). It is likely that other conversion points are located in the zone of low P-wave reflectivity above the BSR. Modeling suggests that a change of the shear modulus is sufficient to cause significant shear conversion without a significant normal-incidence P-wave reflection.

North Carolina, South Carolina↗
USGS2014

Geologic history of Siletzia, a large igneous province in the Oregon and Washington Coast Range: Correlation to the geomagnetic polarity time scale and implications for a long-lived Yellowstone hotspot

Siletzia is a basaltic Paleocene and Eocene large igneous province in coastal Oregon, Washington, and southern Vancouver Island that was accreted to North America in the early Eocene. New U-Pb magmatic, detrital zircon, and 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages constrained by detailed field mapping, global nannoplankton zones, and magnetic polarities allow correlation of the volcanics with the 2012 geologic time scale. The data show that Siletzia was rapidly erupted 56–49 Ma, during the Chron 25–22 plate reorganization in the northeast Pacific basin. Accretion was completed between 51 and 49 Ma in Oregon, based on CP11 (CP—Coccolith Paleogene zone) coccoliths in strata overlying onlapping continental sediments. Magmatism continued in the northern Oregon Coast Range until ca. 46 Ma with the emplacement of a regional sill complex during or shortly after accretion. Isotopic signatures similar to early Columbia River basalts, the great crustal thickness of Siletzia in Oregon, rapid eruption, and timing of accretion are consistent with offshore formation as an oceanic plateau. Approximately 8 m.y. after accretion, margin parallel extension of the forearc, emplacement of regional dike swarms, and renewed magmatism of the Tillamook episode peaked at 41.6 Ma (CP zone 14a; Chron 19r). We examine the origin of Siletzia and consider the possible role of a long-lived Yellowstone hotspot using the reconstruction in GPlates, an open source plate model. In most hotspot reference frames, the Yellowstone hotspot (YHS) is on or near an inferred northeast-striking Kula-Farallon and/or Resurrection-Farallon ridge between 60 and 50 Ma. In this configuration, the YHS could have provided a 56–49 Ma source on the Farallon plate for Siletzia, which accreted to North America by 50 Ma. A sister plateau, the Eocene basalt basement of the Yakutat terrane, now in Alaska, formed contemporaneously on the adjacent Kula (or Resurrection) plate and accreted to coastal British Columbia at about the same time. Following accretion of Siletzia, the leading edge of North America overrode the YHS ca. 42 Ma. The voluminous high-Ti basaltic to alkalic magmatism of the 42–35 Ma Tillamook episode and extension in the forearc may be related to the encounter with an active YHS. Clockwise rotation of western Oregon about a pole in the backarc has since moved the Tillamook center and underlying Siletzia northward ∼250 km from the probable hotspot track on North America. In the reference frames we examined, the YHS arrives in the backarc ∼5 m.y. too early to match the 17 Ma magmatic flare-up commonly attributed to the YHS. We suggest that interaction with the subducting slab may have delayed arrival of the plume beneath the backarc.

Oregon, Vancouver, Washington↗
USGS2004

Has the conversion of natural wetlands to agricultural land increased the incidence and severity of damaging freezes in south Florida?

On several occasions, winter freezes have wrought severe destruction on Florida agriculture. A series of devastating freezes around the turn of the twentieth century, and again during the 1980s, were related to anomalies in the large-scale flow of the ocean–atmosphere system. During the twentieth century, substantial areas of wetlands in south Florida were drained and converted to agricultural land for winter fresh vegetable and sugarcane production. During this time, much of the citrus industry also was relocated to those areas to escape the risk of freeze farther to the north. The purpose of this paper is to present a modeling study designed to investigate whether the conversion of the wetlands to agriculture itself could have resulted in or exacerbated the severity of recent freezes in those agricultural areas of south Florida. For three recent freeze events, a pair of simulations was undertaken with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System. One member of each pair employed land surface properties that represent pre-1900s (near natural) land cover, whereas the other member of each pair employed data that represent near-current land-use patterns as derived from analysis of Landsat data valid for 1992/93. These two different land cover datasets capture well the conversion of wetlands to agriculture in south Florida during the twentieth century. Use of current land surface properties resulted in colder simulated minimum temperatures and temperatures that remained below freezing for a longer period at locations of key agricultural production centers in south Florida that were once natural wetlands. Examination of time series of the surface energy budget from one of the cases reveals that when natural land cover is used, a persistent moisture flux from the underlying wetlands during the nighttime hours served to prevent the development of below-freezing temperatures at those same locations. When the model results were subjected to an important sensitivity factor, the depth of standing water in the wetlands, the outcome remained consistent. These results provide another example of the potential for humans to perturb the climate system in ways that can have severe socioeconomic consequences by altering the land surface alone.

Monthly Weather Review↗
USGS2008

Summary of Survival Data from Juvenile Coho Salmon in the Klamath River, Northern California, 2007

A study to estimate the effects of Iron Gate Dam discharge on ESA-listed juvenile coho salmon during their seaward migration to the ocean was begun in 2005. Estimates of survival through various reaches of river downstream from the dam were completed in 2006 and 2007 as part of this process. This report describes the estimates of survival during 2007, and is a complement to a similar report from 2006. Further analyses will be included in a separate report. In 2007, a series of models were evaluated to determine what survival and capture probabilities of radio-tagged hatchery fish were in several reaches between Iron Gate Hatchery at river kilometer 309 and a site at river kilometer 33. The results indicate trends in survival among reaches were similar to those found in 2006, but the survival in 2007 was lower than in 2006. The differences in survivals from Iron Gate Hatchery to river kilometer 33 in 2006 (0.653 SE 0.039) and 2007 (0.497 SE 0.044) were caused primarily by differences in survivals upstream from the Scott River. This document is a brief summary of 2007 survival results.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2020

Temperature model in support of the U.S. Geological Survey National Crustal Model for seismic hazard Ssudies

The U.S. Geological Survey National Crustal Model (NCM) is being developed to assist with earthquake hazard and risk assessment by supporting estimates of ground shaking in response to an earthquake. The period-dependent intensity and duration of shaking depend upon the three-dimensional seismic velocity, seismic attenuation, and density distribution of a region, which in turn is governed to a large degree by geology and how that geology behaves under varying temperatures and pressures. A three-dimensional temperature model is presented here to support the estimation of physical parameters within the U.S. Geological Survey NCM. The crustal model is defined by a geological framework consisting of various lithologies with distinct mineral compositions. A temperature model is needed to calculate mineral density and bulk and shear modulus as a function of position within the crust. These properties control seismic velocity and impedance, which are needed to accurately estimate earthquake travel times and seismic amplitudes in earthquake hazard analyses. The temperature model is constrained by observations of surface temperature, temperature gradient, and conductivity, inferred Moho temperature and depth, and assumed conductivity at the base of the crust. The continental plate is assumed to have heat production that decreases exponentially with depth and thermal conductivity that exponentially changes from a surface value to 3.6 watts per meter-Kelvin at the Moho. The oceanic plate cools as a half-space with a geotherm dependent on plate age. Under these conditions, and the application of observed surface heat production, predicted Moho temperatures match Moho temperatures inferred from seismic P-wave velocities, on average. As has been noted in previous studies, high crustal temperatures are found in the western United States, particularly beneath areas of recent volcanism. In the central and eastern United States, elevated temperatures are found from southeast Texas, into the Mississippi Embayment, and up through Wisconsin. A USGS ScienceBase data release that supports this report is available and consists of grids covering the NCM across the conterminous United States, for example, surface temperature and temperature gradient, that are needed to produce temperature profiles.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2022

Laysan albatross exhibit complex behavioral plasticity in the subtropical and subarctic North Pacific Ocean

Animals that regularly traverse habitat extremes between the subtropics and subarctic are expected to exhibit foraging behaviors that respond to changes in dynamic ocean habitats, and these behaviors may facilitate adaptations to novel and changing climates. During the chick-provisioning stage, Laysan albatross Phoebastria immutabilis parents regularly undertake short- and long-distance foraging trips throughout the vast central North Pacific Ocean. We examined GPS tracking data among chick-provisioning albatrosses in Hawai‘i to characterize habitats during short- and long-distance trips. The study period encompassed a marine heatwave (2014) and the cooling period after an extreme El Niño event (2016), enabling us to examine foraging habitats under novel and changing climates. First passage time and generalized additive mixed models indicated that during 183 short and 110 long trips (n = 32 birds), wind-assisted flight efficiency, proximity to productive areas, and moonlit-searching were important in both subtropical and subarctic habitats. Laysan albatross took foraging trips that had similar lengths and durations in 2014 and 2016 and visited similar areas, indicating that their foraging range did not expand in response to climatic variability. A strategy that uses similar foraging areas across years combined with reliance on environmental processes that enhance flight efficiency (wind) and that enable searching behaviors (moonlight) indicate that Laysan albatross exhibit complex behavioral plasticity that allows them to utilize subtropical and subarctic habitats affected by dynamic climate variability. This strategy may benefit their ability to respond to oceanographic and climatic change, including expanding warm water regions and changing atmospheric conditions influenced by global warming.

Alaska, Hawaii↗
USGS2017

Tectonic evolution

The middle Paleozoic through Present tectonic evolution of the Northern Cordillera is portrayed in a series of 15 Tectonic Model figures. These figures depict the successive stages of formation and accretion of orogenic collages along the western margin of the North American Plate (craton and craton margin) and adjacent marine areas. The orogenic collages are composed of terranes and overlap assemblages. The terranes are tectonic (fault-bounded) fragments of island arcs and continental-margin arcs, subduction-zones, oceanic lithosphere, craton margins, and cratons. The overlap assemblages are sequences of mainly late Mesozoic and Cenozoic continental-margin-arc and sedimentary-basin assemblages that were deposited on subjacent terranes and on subjacent craton margin assemblages, following their tectonic assembly.

Book chapter↗
USGS2017

Interactions of estuarine shoreline infrastructure with multiscale sea level variability

Sea level rise increases the risk of storms and other short‐term water‐rise events, because it sets a higher water level such that coastal surges become more likely to overtop protections and cause floods. To protect coastal communities, it is necessary to understand the interaction among multiday and tidal sea level variabilities, coastal infrastructure, and sea level rise. We performed a series of numerical simulations for San Francisco Bay to examine two shoreline scenarios and a series of short‐term and long‐term sea level variations. The two shoreline configurations include the existing topography and a coherent full‐bay containment that follows the existing land boundary with an impermeable wall. The sea level variability consists of a half‐meter perturbation, with duration ranging from 2 days to permanent (i.e., sea level rise). The extent of coastal flooding was found to increase with the duration of the high‐water‐level event. The nonlinear interaction between these intermediate scale events and astronomical tidal forcing only contributes ∼1% of the tidal heights; at the same time, the tides are found to be a dominant factor in establishing the evolution and diffusion of multiday high water events. Establishing containment at existing shorelines can change the tidal height spectrum up to 5%, and the impact of this shoreline structure appears stronger in the low‐frequency range. To interpret the spatial and temporal variability at a wide range of frequencies, Optimal Dynamic Mode Decomposition is introduced to analyze the coastal processes and an inverse method is applied to determine the coefficients of a 1‐D diffusion wave model that quantify the impact of bottom roughness, tidal basin geometry, and shoreline configuration on the high water events

Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans↗
USGS2019

Measurement of sounds emitted by certain high-resolution geophysical survey systems

Scientific questions regarding the impact of anthropomorphic noise in the marine environment have resulted in an increasing number of regulatory requirements and precautionary mitigation strategies to reduce the risks associated with high-resolution marine geophysical surveys performed in waters subjected to government jurisdiction. An example of regulatory frameworks includes the Marine Mammal Protection Act in the United States and the Marine Strategy Framework Directive 2008/56/EC in the European Union. Regulatory compliance often requires an assessment of the potential ecological risks before initiating a marine geophysical survey. However, the acoustic source data needed to estimate the risk associated with the operation of a given high-resolution survey system are frequently lacking. A comprehensive measurement program was performed to quantify the characteristics of sounds radiated by a variety of commercial marine geophysical survey systems, including boomers, sparkers, airguns, chirp sub-bottom profilers, sidescan sonars, and swath-bathymetric sonars [Crocker and Fratantonio, “Characteristics of high-frequency sounds emitted during high-resolution marine geophysical surveys,” Naval Undersea Warfare Center, Newport, RI, USA, NUWC-NPT Tech. Rep. 12, 203, 2016]. Calibrated acoustic source data, including source levels, source spectra, and beam patterns, were acquired for a total of 18 different marine geophysical survey systems. The data support modeling to estimate the potential ecological impacts resulting from the operation of certain high-resolution marine geophysical survey systems.

IEEE Journal of Oceanic Engineering↗
USGS2008

Modeling Soil Moisture in the Mojave Desert

The Mojave Desert is an arid region of southeastern California and parts of Nevada, Arizona, and Utah; the desert occupies more than 25,000 square miles (fig. 1). Ranging from below sea level to over 5,000 feet (1,524 m) in elevation, the Mojave Desert is considered a ?high desert.? On the west and southwest it is bounded by the Sierra Nevada, the San Gabriel, and the San Bernardino Mountains. These imposing mountains intercept moisture traveling inland from the Pacific Ocean, producing arid conditions characterized by extreme fluctuations in daily temperatures, strong seasonal winds, and an average annual precipitation of less than six inches. The Mojave Desert lies farther south and at a lower elevation than the cooler Great Basin Desert and grades southward into the even lower and hotter Sonoran Desert.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1994

Relationships between atmospheric circulation and snowpack in the Gunnison River basin, Colorado

In this study, winter mean 700 mbar height anomalies over the eastern North Pacific Ocean and the western USA are related to variability in snowpack accumulations measured on or about 1 April at 21 snowcourse stations within and near the Gunnison River basin in Colorado. Results indicate that lower than normal snowpack accumulations are primarily associated with positive 700 mbar height anomalies (anomalous anticyclonic circulation) over the western USA. Moist air from the Pacific Ocean is moved to the north of the western USA along the western margin of the anomalous anticyclonic circulation. In contrast, higher than normal snowpack accumulations are associated with negative 700 mbar height anomalies (anomalous cyclonic circulation) over the western USA and over most of the eastern North Pacific Ocean. The anomalous cyclonic circulation over the western USA enhances the movement of moisture from the Pacific Ocean into the southern and central parts of the West. Results also indicate that variability in winter mean 700 mbar height anomalies can explain over 50% of the variability in snowpack accumulations in the Gunnison River basin. The significant linear relationships between 700 mbar height anomalies and snowpack accumulations in the Gunnison River basin can be used in conjunction with general circulation model simulations of 700 mbar height anomalies for future climatic conditions to estimate future snowpack accumulations in the Gunnison River basin.

Journal of Hydrology↗
USGS2025

Launching into societal benefits from the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission

The 10th Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) Applications Meeting, held one year after the satellite's launch, highlighted significant milestones in mission progress and showcased the innovative work of SWOT Early Adopters (EA) using mission data products. Over 100 participants from diverse sectors convened to discuss operational applications leveraging SWOT's unprecedented water surface measurements. The meeting emphasized applied science efforts to enhance hydrology and oceanographic models. This summary highlights the breadth of operational and private-sector uses of SWOT data, emphasizing its potential to drive new innovations and deliver societal benefits, such as improved water resource management, flood prediction, and climate resilience.

Water Resources Research↗
USGS1998

Closing the gap between regional and global travel time tomography

Recent global travel time tomography studies by Zhou [1996] and van der Hilst et al . [1997] have been performed with cell parameterizations of the order of those frequently used in regional tomography studies (i.e., with cell sizes of 1°–2°). These new global models constitute a considerable improvement over previous results that were obtained with rather coarse parameterizations (5° cells). The inferred structures are, however, of larger scale than is usually obtained in regional models, and it is not clear where and if individual cells are actually resolved. This study aims at resolving lateral heterogeneity on scales as small as 0.6° in the upper mantle and 1.2°–3° in the lower mantle. This allows for the adequate mapping of expected small-scale structures induced by, for example, lithosphere subduction, deep mantle upwellings, and mid-ocean ridges. There are three major contributions that allow for this advancement. First, we employ an irregular grid of nonoverlapping cells adapted to the heterogeneous sampling of the Earth's mantle by seismic waves [ Spakman and Bijwaard , 1998]. Second, we exploit the global data set of Engdahl et al . [1998], which is a reprocessed version of the global data set of the International Seismological Centre. Their reprocessing included hypocenter redetermination and phase reidentification. Finally, we combine all data used ( P , pP , and pwP phases) into nearly 5 million ray bundles with a limited spatial extent such that averaging over large mantle volumes is prevented while the signal-to-noise ratio is improved. In the approximate solution of the huge inverse problem we obtain a variance reduction of 57.1%. Synthetic sensitivity tests indicate horizontal resolution on the scale of the smallest cells (0.6° or 1.2°) in the shallow parts of subduction zones decreasing to approximately 2°–3° resolution in well-sampled regions in the lower mantle. Vertical resolution can be worse (up to several hundreds of kilometers) in subduction zones with rays predominantly pointing along dip. Important features of the solution are as follows: 100–200 km thick high-velocity slabs beneath all major subduction zones, sometimes flattening in the transition zone and sometimes directly penetrating into the lower mantle; large high-velocity anomalies in the lower mantle that have been attributed to subduction of the Tethys ocean and the Farallon plate; and low-velocity anomalies continuing across the 660 km discontinuity to hotspots at the surface under Iceland, east Africa, the Canary Islands, Yellowstone, and the Society Islands. Our findings corroborate that the 660 km boundary may resist but not prevent (present day) large-scale mass transfer from upper to lower mantle or vice versa. This observation confirms the results of previous, global mantle studies that employed coarser parameterizations.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗
USGS2011

Development of flood-inundation maps for the West Branch Susquehanna River near the Borough of Jersey Shore, Lycoming County, Pennsylvania

Streamflow data, water-surface-elevation profiles derived from a Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System hydraulic model, and geographical information system digital elevation models were used to develop a set of 18 flood-inundation maps for an approximately 5-mile reach of the West Branch Susquehanna River near the Borough of Jersey Shore, Pa. The inundation maps were created by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Susquehanna River Basin Commission and Lycoming County as part of an ongoing effort by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Weather Service to focus on continued improvements to the flood forecasting and warning abilities in the Susquehanna River Basin and to modernize flood-forecasting methodologies. The maps, ranging from 23.0 to 40.0 feet in 1-foot increments, correspond to river stage at the U.S. Geological Survey streamgage 01549760 at Jersey Shore. The electronic files used to develop the maps were provided to the National Weather Service for incorporation into their Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service website. The maps are displayed on this website, which serves as a web-based floodwarning system, and can be used to identify areas of predicted flood inundation associated with forecasted flood-peak stages. During times of flooding or predicted flooding, these maps can be used by emergency managers and the public to take proactive steps to protect life and reduce property damage caused by floods.

Pennsylvania↗
USGS2011

Projected evolution of California's San Francisco Bay-Delta-River System in a century of continuing climate change

Background Accumulating evidence shows that the planet is warming as a response to human emissions of greenhouse gases. Strategies of adaptation to climate change will require quantitative projections of how altered regional patterns of temperature, precipitation and sea level could cascade to provoke local impacts such as modified water supplies, increasing risks of coastal flooding, and growing challenges to sustainability of native species. Methodology/Principal Findings We linked a series of models to investigate responses of California's San Francisco Estuary-Watershed (SFEW) system to two contrasting scenarios of climate change. Model outputs for scenarios of fast and moderate warming are presented as 2010–2099 projections of nine indicators of changing climate, hydrology and habitat quality. Trends of these indicators measure rates of: increasing air and water temperatures, salinity and sea level; decreasing precipitation, runoff, snowmelt contribution to runoff, and suspended sediment concentrations; and increasing frequency of extreme environmental conditions such as water temperatures and sea level beyond the ranges of historical observations. Conclusions/Significance Most of these environmental indicators change substantially over the 21 st century, and many would present challenges to natural and managed systems. Adaptations to these changes will require flexible planning to cope with growing risks to humans and the challenges of meeting demands for fresh water and sustaining native biota. Programs of ecosystem rehabilitation and biodiversity conservation in coastal landscapes will be most likely to meet their objectives if they are designed from considerations that include: (1) an integrated perspective that river-estuary systems are influenced by effects of climate change operating on both watersheds and oceans; (2) varying sensitivity among environmental indicators to the uncertainty of future climates; (3) inevitability of biological community changes as responses to cumulative effects of climate change and other drivers of habitat transformations; and (4) anticipation and adaptation to the growing probability of ecosystem regime shifts.

California↗