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At least 955 records · Page 53Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Application of effective discharge analysis to environmental flow decision-making

Well-informed river management decisions rely on an explicit statement of objectives, repeatable analyses, and a transparent system for assessing trade-offs. These components may then be applied to compare alternative operational regimes for water resource infrastructure (e.g., diversions, locks, and dams). Intra- and inter-annual hydrologic variability further complicates these already complex environmental flow decisions. Effective discharge analysis (developed in studies of geomorphology) is a powerful tool for integrating temporal variability of flow magnitude and associated ecological consequences. Here, we adapt the effectiveness framework to include multiple elements of the natural flow regime (i.e., timing, duration, and rate-of-change) as well as two flow variables. We demonstrate this analytical approach using a case study of environmental flow management based on long-term (60 years) daily discharge records in the Middle Oconee River near Athens, GA, USA. Specifically, we apply an existing model for estimating young-of-year fish recruitment based on flow-dependent metrics to an effective discharge analysis that incorporates hydrologic variability and multiple focal taxa. We then compare three alternative methods of environmental flow provision. Percentage-based withdrawal schemes outcompete other environmental flow methods across all levels of water withdrawal and ecological outcomes.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2021

Synthesizing and analyzing long-term monitoring data: A greater sage-grouse case study

Long-term monitoring of natural resources is imperative for increasing the understanding of ecosystem processes, services, and how to manage those ecosystems to maintain or improve function. Challenges with using these data may occur because methods of monitoring changed over time, multiple organizations collect and manage data differently, and monetary resources fluctuate, affecting many aspects of data. Because many species respond to changes in habitat conditions and predator-prey relationships across different spatial scales that span management boundaries, greater efforts for collaborating are essential. We demonstrate the challenges and methods for standardizing greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) long-term monitoring data across the species range in the western United States to inform population modeling needs identified by the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies. We used automated and repeatable methods of standardizing data via custom open-source software ( grsg_lekdb ) to improve the scientific integrity of future sage-grouse population assessments within and among states. Data standardization included reconciling uses of different terminology and expunging unusable data, resulting in the removal of 26% of data records due to database insertion errors and modifications to >1 million values to correct formatting and typing errors. Our approaches maximized the inclusion of usable data and identified data that could inform detection probabilities, population trends, and monitoring guidelines. Using sage-grouse databases as an example, we identified the importance of data management and how quality assurance and quality control measures can improve the usefulness of these data for future research needs. Our methods of using informatics and concluding recommendations can support similar endeavors of flora and fauna monitoring programs, whether those efforts are to use existing data or support new monitoring programs.

Ecological Informatics↗
USGS2014

A new analysis of Mars "Special Regions": findings of the Second MEPAG Special Regions Science Analysis Group (SR-SAG2)

A committee of the Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group (MEPAG) has reviewed and updated the description of Special Regions on Mars as places where terrestrial organisms might replicate (per the COSPAR Planetary Protection Policy). This review and update was conducted by an international team (SR-SAG2) drawn from both the biological science and Mars exploration communities, focused on understanding when and where Special Regions could occur. The study applied recently available data about martian environments and about terrestrial organisms, building on a previous analysis of Mars Special Regions (2006) undertaken by a similar team. Since then, a new body of highly relevant information has been generated from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (launched in 2005) and Phoenix (2007) and data from Mars Express and the twin Mars Exploration Rovers (all 2003). Results have also been gleaned from the Mars Science Laboratory (launched in 2011). In addition to Mars data, there is a considerable body of new data regarding the known environmental limits to life on Earth—including the potential for terrestrial microbial life to survive and replicate under martian environmental conditions. The SR-SAG2 analysis has included an examination of new Mars models relevant to natural environmental variation in water activity and temperature; a review and reconsideration of the current parameters used to define Special Regions; and updated maps and descriptions of the martian environments recommended for treatment as "Uncertain" or "Special" as natural features or those potentially formed by the influence of future landed spacecraft. Significant changes in our knowledge of the capabilities of terrestrial organisms and the existence of possibly habitable martian environments have led to a new appreciation of where Mars Special Regions may be identified and protected. The SR-SAG also considered the impact of Special Regions on potential future human missions to Mars, both as locations of potential resources and as places that should not be inadvertently contaminated by human activity.

Astrobiology↗
USGS2018

Rio Grande transboundary integrated hydrologic model and water-availability analysis, New Mexico and Texas, United States, and Northern Chihuahua, Mexico

Errata **September 28, 2018: The purpose of a USGS Open-file report (OFR) is dissemination of information that must be released immediately to fill a public need or information that is not sufficiently refined to warrant publication in one of the other USGS series. As part of that refinement process, an error was discovered in one of the input data sets of the Rio Grande Transboundary Integrated Hydrologic Model (RGTIHM) that this OFR was based upon. The error involved the assignment of storage properties to “phantom cells.” Phantom cells are required for most variants of MODFLOW that use a structured finite-difference grid when individual stratigraphic layers are represented as separate layers. Using phantom cells is a common practice that allows separate model layers to be maintained without having to combine stratigraphic layers into equivalent model layers or to use an unstructured grid. Typically, phantom cell horizontal hydraulic conductivities and storage properties are set to a small number and vertical hydraulic conductivities are set to a number large enough to allow vertical flow between the vertically adjacent layers. In the RGTIHM, the specific storage properties of the phantom cells for the upper (RGTIHM layers 3 and 4), middle (RGTIHM layers 5 and 6), and lower (RGTIHM layers 7 and 8) members of the Santa Fe Group were inadvertently assigned a value of 1 feet -1 . The revision of these specific storage values to a small number (1.0 x 10 -09 feet -1 ) required additional trial-and-error model calibration and a new sensitivity analysis. After calibration, the overall model fit remained similar to the fit described in the OFR, but the fit for many individual features such as project water available for diversions at the American Canal and Acequia Madre improved due to the reduction in flow coming from lower layers. Overall, there is still an average net depletion of groundwater flow, and the conclusions of the report are not changed. The revised average annual groundwater flow depletion simulated for the period 1953-2014 is -1,480 acre-feet/year for the entire model region, and -3,660 acre-feet/year for the portion of the model in the United States. The final version of the model will be the basis of the USGS Scientific Investigations Report that will supersede this OFR. An updated Model Archive of RGTIHM is available upon request to the USGS California Water Science Center. The corrected version of the model WAS the basis for the USGS Scientific Investigations Report that SUPERSEDED this Open-File Report.** Abstract Changes in population, agricultural development and practices (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are increasing demands on available water resources, particularly groundwater, in one of the most productive agricultural regions in the Southwest—the Rincon and Mesilla Valley parts of Rio Grande Valley, Doña Ana and Sierra Counties, New Mexico, and El Paso County, Texas. The goal of this study was to produce an integrated hydrological simulation model to help evaluate water-management strategies, including conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater for historical conditions, and to support long-term planning for the Rio Grande Project. This report describes model construction and applications by the U.S. Geological Survey, working in cooperation and collaboration with the Bureau of Reclamation. This model, the Rio Grande Transboundary Integrated Hydrologic Model, simulates the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system, including selected components related to variations in climate, thereby providing a reliable assessment of surface-water and groundwater conditions and processes that can inform water users and help improve planning for future conditions and sustained operations of the Rio Grande Project (RGP) by the Bureau of Reclamation. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, construction of a Transboundary Rio Grande Watershed Model (TRGWM) water-balance model using the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), and construction of an integrated hydrologic flow model with MODFLOW-One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (referred to as One Water). The hydrologic models were developed for and calibrated to historical conditions of water and land use, and parameters were adjusted so that simulated values closely matched available measurements (calibration). The calibrated model was then used to assess the use and movement of water in the Rincon Valley, Mesilla Basin, and northern part of the Conejos-Médanos Basin, with the entire region referred to as the “Transboundary Rio Grande” or TRG. These tools provide a means to understand hydrologic system response to the evolution of water use in the region, its availability, and potential operational constraints of the RGP. The conceptual model identified surface-water and groundwater inflows and outflows that included the movement and use of water both in natural and in anthropogenic systems. The groundwater-flow system is characterized by a layered geologic sedimentary sequence combined with the effects of groundwater pumping, operation of the RGP, natural runoff and recharge, and the application of irrigation water at the land surface that is captured and reused in an extensive network of canals and drains as part of the conjunctive use of water in the region. Historical groundwater-level fluctuations followed a cyclic pattern that were aligned with climate cycles, which collectively resulted in alternating periods of wet or dry years. Periods of drought that persisted for one or more years are associated with low surface-water availability that resulted in higher rates of groundwater-level decline. Rates of groundwater-level decline also increased during periods of agricultural intensification, which necessitated increasing use of groundwater as a source of irrigation water. Agriculture in the area was initially dominated by alfalfa and cotton, but since 1970 more water-intensive pecan orchards and vegetable production have become more common. Groundwater levels substantially declined in subregions where drier climate combined with increased demand, resulting in periods of reduced streamflows. Most of the groundwater was recharged in the Rio Grande Valley floor, and most of the pumpage and aquifer storage depletion was in Mesilla Basin agricultural subregions. A cyclic imbalance between inflows and outflows resulted in the modeled cyclic depletion (groundwater withdrawals in excess of natural recharge) of the groundwater basin during the 75-year simulation period of 1940–2014. Changes in groundwater storage can vary considerably from year to year, depending on land use, pumpage, and climate conditions. Climatic drivers of wet and dry years can greatly affect all inflows, outflows, and water use. Although streamflow and, to a minor extent, precipitation during inter-decadal wet-year periods replenished the groundwater historically, contemporary water use and storage depletion could have reduced the effects of these major recharge events. The average net groundwater flow-rate deficit for 1953–2014 was estimated to be about 8,990 acre-feet per year.

New Mexico, Northern Chihuahua, Texas↗
USGS2020

Rio Grande transboundary integrated hydrologic model and water-availability analysis, New Mexico and Texas, United States, and northern Chihuahua, Mexico

Changes in population, agricultural development and practices (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are increasing demands on available water resources, particularly groundwater, in one of the most productive agricultural regions in the Southwest—the Rincon and Mesilla Valley parts of Rio Grande Valley, Doña Ana and Sierra Counties, New Mexico, and El Paso County, Texas. The goal of this study was to produce an integrated hydrological simulation model to help evaluate water-management strategies, including conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater for historical conditions, and to support long-term planning for the Rio Grande Project. This report describes model construction and applications by the U.S. Geological Survey, working in cooperation and collaboration with the Bureau of Reclamation. This model, the Rio Grande Transboundary Integrated Hydrologic Model, simulates the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system, including selected components related to variations in climate, thereby providing a reliable assessment of surface-water and groundwater conditions and processes that can inform water users and help improve planning for future conditions and sustained operations of the Rio Grande Project (RGP) by the Bureau of Reclamation. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, construction of a Transboundary Rio Grande Watershed Model (TRGWM) water-balance model using the Basin Characterization Model, and construction of an integrated hydrologic flow model with MODFLOW-One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model version 2 (referred to as MF-OWHM2). The hydrologic models were developed for and calibrated to historical conditions of water and land use, and parameters were adjusted so that simulated values closely matched available measurements (calibration). The calibrated model was then used to assess the use and movement of water in the Rincon Valley, Mesilla Basin, and northern part of the Conejos-Médanos Basin, with the entire region referred to as the “Transboundary Rio Grande” or TRG. These tools provide a means to understand hydrologic system response to the evolution of water use in the region, its availability, and potential operational constraints of the RGP. The conceptual model identified surface-water and groundwater inflows and outflows that included the movement and use of water both in natural and in anthropogenic systems. The groundwater-flow system is characterized by a layered geologic sedimentary sequence combined with the effects of groundwater pumping, operation of the RGP, natural runoff and recharge, and the application of irrigation water at the land surface that is captured and reused in an extensive network of canals and drains as part of the conjunctive use of water in the region. Historical groundwater-level fluctuations followed a cyclic pattern that were aligned with climate cycles, which collectively resulted in alternating periods of wet or dry years. Periods of drought that persisted for one or more years are associated with low surface-water availability that resulted in higher rates of groundwater-level decline. Rates of groundwater-level decline also increased during periods of agricultural intensification, which necessitated increasing use of groundwater as a source of irrigation water. Agriculture in the area was initially dominated by alfalfa and cotton, but since 1970 more water-intensive pecan orchards and vegetable production have become more common. Groundwater levels substantially declined in subregions where drier climate combined with increased demand, resulting in periods of reduced streamflows. Most of the groundwater was recharged in the Rio Grande Valley floor, and most of the pumpage and aquifer storage depletion was in Mesilla Basin agricultural subregions. A cyclic imbalance between inflows and outflows resulted in the modeled cyclic depletion (groundwater withdrawals in excess of natural recharge) of the groundwater basin during the 75-year simulation period of 1940–2014. Changes in groundwater storage can vary considerably from year to year, depending on land use, pumpage, and climate conditions. Climatic drivers of wet and dry years can greatly affect all inflows, outflows, and water use. Although streamflow and, to a minor extent, precipitation during inter-decadal wet-year periods replenished the groundwater historically, contemporary water use and storage depletion could have reduced the effects of these major recharge events. The average net groundwater flow-rate deficit for 1953–2014 was estimated to be about 1,090 acre-feet per year.

Chihuahua, New Mexico, Texas↗
USGS1993

Streamflow and sediment dynamics of the Middle Rio Grande Valley, New Mexico, in the context of cottonwood recruitment

The cottonwood gallery forests of the Middle Rio Grande floodplain in New Mexico provide important habitats for birds and other animals. Over the last century, these forests have changed significantly due to invasion of exotics such as salt cedar and Russian olive, which compete with native cottonwoods, and changes in water use both in the valley and upstream. To successfully germinate and establish, cottonwoods require an adequate water supply, abundant sunlight, and bare, litter-free substrate. Native cottonwoods are adapted to a natural snowmelt hydrograph characterized by spring floods in late May or early June and gradually receding streamflows throughout the remainder of the summer. The natural streamflow pattern has been significantly modified by water management in the Rio Grande basin. The modified pattern is less conducive to establishment of cottonwoods than the natural pattern. In addition, exotic species now compete with native cottonwoods, and the modified flow pattern may favor these exotics. The overall objective of this study was to investigate the possibility of enhancing cottonwood establishment and recruitment along the Middle Rio Grande through streamflow manipulation and reservoir releases. The work integrates concepts of cottonwood establishment, water resources management, and river morphology, and investigates how water management might be used to preserve and enhance cottonwood gallery forests along the river. Specific objectives of the work reported herein were to: (1) develop a technique to calculate flows that will produce channel characteristics necessary to restore and sustain cottonwood gallery forests; (2) develop a model to determine a flow pattern, or sequence of flows, that will improve the potential for cottonwood establishment and recruitment; and (3) determine if the water resources can be managed to produce the desired channel characteristics and flow pattern identified in (1) and (2).

Report↗
USGS2019

Spatially explicit models of seasonal habitat for greater sage‐grouse at broad spatial scales: Informing areas for management in Nevada and northeastern California

Defining boundaries of species' habitat across broad spatial scales is often necessary for management decisions, and yet challenging for species that demonstrate differential variation in seasonal habitat use. Spatially explicit indices that incorporate temporal shifts in selection can help overcome such challenges, especially for species of high conservation concern. Greater sage‐grouse Centrocercus urophasianus (hereafter, sage‐grouse), a sagebrush obligate species inhabiting the American West, represents an important case study because sage‐grouse exhibit seasonal habitat patterns, populations are declining in most portions of their range and are central to contemporary national land use policies. Here, we modeled spatiotemporal selection patterns for telemetered sage‐grouse across multiple study sites (1,084 sage‐grouse; 30,690 locations) in the Great Basin. We developed broad‐scale spatially explicit habitat indices that elucidated space use patterns (spring, summer/fall, and winter) and accounted for regional climatic variation using previously published hydrographic boundaries. We then evaluated differences in selection/avoidance of each habitat characteristic between seasons and hydrographic regions. Most notably, sage‐grouse consistently selected areas dominated by sagebrush with few or no conifers but varied in type of sagebrush selected by season and region. Spatiotemporal variation was most apparent based on availability of water resources and herbaceous cover, where sage‐grouse strongly selected upland natural springs in xeric regions but selected larger wet meadows in mesic regions. Additionally, during the breeding period in spring, herbaceous cover was selected strongly in the mesic regions. Lastly, we expanded upon an existing joint–index framework by combining seasonal habitat indices with a probabilistic index of sage‐grouse abundance and space use to produce habitat maps useful for sage‐grouse management. These products can serve as conservation planning tools that help predict expected benefits of restoration activities, while highlighting areas most critical to sustaining sage‐grouse populations. Our joint–index framework can be applied to other species that exhibit seasonal shifts in habitat requirements to help better guide conservation actions.

California, Nevada↗
USGS2013

Identifying stakeholder-relevant climate change impacts: a case study in the Yakima River Basin, Washington, USA

Designing climate-related research so that study results will be useful to natural resource managers is a unique challenge. While decision makers increasingly recognize the need to consider climate change in their resource management plans, and climate scientists recognize the importance of providing locally-relevant climate data and projections, there often remains a gap between management needs and the information that is available or is being collected. We used decision analysis concepts to bring decision-maker and stakeholder perspectives into the applied research planning process. In 2009 we initiated a series of studies on the impacts of climate change in the Yakima River Basin (YRB) with a four-day stakeholder workshop, bringing together managers, stakeholders, and scientists to develop an integrated conceptual model of climate change and climate change impacts in the YRB. The conceptual model development highlighted areas of uncertainty that limit the understanding of the potential impacts of climate change and decision alternatives by those who will be most directly affected by those changes, and pointed to areas where additional study and engagement of stakeholders would be beneficial. The workshop and resulting conceptual model highlighted the importance of numerous different outcomes to stakeholders in the basin, including social and economic outcomes that go beyond the physical and biological outcomes typically reported in climate impacts studies. Subsequent studies addressed several of those areas of uncertainty, including changes in water temperatures, habitat quality, and bioenergetics of salmonid populations.

Washington↗
USGS2021

Development and validation of a spatially-explicit agent-based model for space utilization by African savanna elephants (Loxodonta africana) based on determinants of movement

African elephants (Loxodonta africana) are well-studied and inhabit diverse landscapes that are being transformed by both humans and natural forces. Most tools currently in use are limited in their ability to predict how elephants will respond to novel changes in the environment. Individual-, or agent-based modeling (ABM), may extend current methods in addressing and predicting spatial responses to environmental conditions over time. We developed a spatially explicit agent-based model to simulate elephant space use and validated the model with movement data from elephants in Kruger National Park (KNP) and Chobe National Park (CNP). We simulated movement at an hourly scale, as this scale can reflect switches in elephant behavior due to changes in internal states and short-term responses to the local availability and distribution of critical resources, including forage, water, and shade. Known internal drivers of elephant movement, including perceived temperature and the time since an individual last visited a water source, were linked to the external environment through behavior-based movement rules. Simulations were run on model landscapes representing the wet season and the hot, dry season for both parks. The model outputs, including home range size, daily displacement distance, net displacement distance, and maximum distance traveled from a permanent water source, were evaluated through qualitative and quantitative comparisons to actual elephant movement data from both KNP and CNP. The ABM was successful in reproducing the differences in daily displacements between seasons in each park, and in distances traveled from a permanent water source between parks and seasons. Other movement characteristics, including differences in home range sizes and net daily displacements, were partially reproduced. Out of the all the statistical comparisons made between the empirical and simulated movement patterns, the majority were classified as discrepancies of medium or small effect size. We have shown that a resource-driven model with relatively simple decision rules generates trajectories with movement characteristics that are mostly comparable to those calculated from empirical data. Simulating hourly movement (as our model does) may be useful in predicting how finer-scale patterns of space use, such as those created by foraging movements, are influenced by finer spatio-temporal changes in the environment.

Chobe National Park, Kruger National Park↗
USGS1993

U.S. Geological Survey; North Carolina's water resources; a partnership with State, Federal and local agencies

For more than 80 years, the Federal-State Cooperative Program in North Carolina has been an effective partnership that provides timely water information for all levels of government. The cooperative program has raised awareness of State and local water problems and issues and has enhanced transfer and exchange of scientific information. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) conducts statewide water-resources investigations in North Carolina that include hydrologic data collection, applied research studies, and other interpretive studies. These programs are funded through cooperative agreements with the North Carolina Departments of Environment, Health, and Natural Resources; Human Resources; and Transportation, as well as more than a dozen city and county governmental agencies. The USGS also conducts special studies and data-collection programs for Federal agencies, including the Department of Defense, the U.S. Soil Conservation Service, the Tennessee Valley Authority, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency that contribute to North Carolina's water information data base. Highlights of selected programs are presented to show the scope of USGS activities in North Carolina and their usefulness in addressing water-resource problems. The reviewed programs include the statewide data-collection program, estuarine studies, the National Water-Quality Assessment program, military installation restoration program, and groundwater flow model-development program in the Coastal Plain and Piedmont provinces.

North Carolina↗
USGS2019

Wild canid distribution and co-existence in a natural–urban matrix of the Pioneer Valley of Western Massachusetts

Although development and urbanization are typically believed to have negative impacts on carnivoran species, some species can successfully navigate an urban matrix. Sympatric carnivorans compete for limited resources in urban areas, likely with system-specific impacts to their distributions and activity patterns. We used automatically triggered wildlife cameras to assess the local distribution and co-existence of Canis latrans (Coyote) , Vulpes vulpes (Red Fox), and Urocyon cinereoargenteus (Gray Fox) across the Pioneer Valley, MA, in relation to different levels of human development. We placed cameras at 79 locations in forested, altered, and urban land-use areas from September to November 2012 and accumulated 1670 trap nights. We determined site characteristics and detection rates for 12 other wildlife species for each camera location to develop a generalized linear model for the local distribution of each focal canid species across the study area. We also compared diel activity patterns among Coyotes, Red Foxes, and Gray Foxes, and calculated coefficients of overlap between each pair. The local distribution of Coyotes was positively associated with the detection rates of their prey and not associated with detection rates of sympatric carnivoran species. Red Foxes and Gray Foxes had negative relationships with the detection rate of Coyotes, and none of the 3 canid species showed a positive correlation with increased levels of urbanization. There was a high degree of temporal overlap in diel activity patterns and limited spatial overlap of our focal species, which suggests that any competition avoidance across our study area occurred at the spatial level. Coyotes fill the role of top predator in the Pioneer Valley, and likely have a negative impact on the local distributions of smaller canids, while their own local distributions seem to be driven by prey availability.

Massachesetts↗
USGS2018

Identifying cost-effective invasive species control to enhance endangered species populations in the Grand Canyon, USA

Recovering endangered species populations when confronted with the threat of invasive species is an ongoing natural resource management challenge. While eradication of the invasive species is often the optimal economic solution, it may not be a feasible nor desirable management action in other cases. For example, when invasive species are desired in one area, but disperse into areas managed for endangered species, managers may be interested in persistent, but cost-effective means of managing dispersers rather than eradicating the source. In the Colorado River, a nonnative rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) sport fishery is desired within Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, however, dispersal downriver into the Grand Canyon National Park is not desired as rainbow trout negatively affect endangered humpback chub ( Gila cypha ). Here, we developed a bioeconomic model incorporating population abundance goals and cost-effectiveness analyses to approximate the optimal control strategies for invasive rainbow trout conditional on achieving endangered humpback chub adult population abundance goals. Model results indicated that the most cost-effective approach to achieve target adult humpback chub abundance was a high level of rainbow trout control over moderately high rainbow trout population abundance. Adult humpback chub abundance goals were achieved at relatively low rainbow trout abundance and control measures were not cost-effective at relatively high rainbow trout abundance. Our model considered population level dynamics, species interaction and economic costs in a multi-objective decision framework to provide a preferred solution to long-run management of invasive and native species.

Grand Canyon↗
USGS2013

Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species: Salt marshes vs. mangrove forests in the southeastern United States

We live in an era of unprecedented ecological change in which ecologists and natural resource managers are increasingly challenged to anticipate and prepare for the ecological effects of future global change. In this study, we investigated the potential effect of winter climate change upon salt marsh and mangrove forest foundation species in the southeastern United States. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) What is the relationship between winter climate and the presence and abundance of mangrove forests relative to salt marshes; (2) How vulnerable are salt marshes to winter climate change-induced mangrove forest range expansion; and (3) What is the potential future distribution and relative abundance of mangrove forests under alternative winter climate change scenarios? We developed simple winter climate-based models to predict mangrove forest distribution and relative abundance using observed winter temperature data (1970–2000) and mangrove forest and salt marsh habitat data. Our results identify winter climate thresholds for salt marsh–mangrove forest interactions and highlight coastal areas in the southeastern United States (e.g., Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Florida) where relatively small changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme winter events could cause relatively dramatic landscape-scale ecosystem structural and functional change in the form of poleward mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The ecological implications of these marsh-to-mangrove forest conversions are poorly understood, but would likely include changes for associated fish and wildlife populations and for the supply of some ecosystem goods and services.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2020

Geomagnetism Program research plan, 2020–2024

The Geomagnetism Program of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitors geomagnetic field variation through operation of a network of observatories across the United States and its territories, and it pursues scientific research needed to estimate and assess geomagnetic and geoelectric hazards. Over the next five years (2020–2024 inclusive) and in support of national and agency priorities, Geomagnetism Program research scientists plan to pursue an integrated set of research projects broadly encompassing empirical estimation and mapping of geomagnetic disturbance, modeling of solid-Earth conductivity structure and surface impedance, and mapping of magnetic-storm-induced geoelectric fields. Analyses are empirically based, relying on measured time series as well as statistical and numerical modeling of geomagnetic-monitoring data from ground-based observatories and surface-impedance tensors acquired during magnetotelluric surveys. The plan describes augmentation and development of the Geomagnetism Program's existing research portfolio, assuming present funding levels and staffing numbers. Because the projects are interdependent, they cannot be straightforwardly prioritized. They will all be pursued as resources and time permit; additional funding and staffing would enable the projects to be broadened and more rapidly completed. Where appropriate and subject to budgetary constraints and staffing numbers, research on specific projects might be accelerated or even judiciously expanded—some opportunities for expansion are discussed in this plan. Results will provide realistic illumination of the nature of the ground-level expression of space-weather disturbance, a subject of particular importance for projects focused on evaluating the vulnerability of electric-power-grid systems. This plan does not cover Geomagnetism Program operations, which are primarily concerned with the operation of magnetic observatories and, now, magnetotelluric surveys, although the context of such observatories and surveys is discussed. The research element of the program provides guidance for the expansion of program operations and research projects. In addition to the research projects summarized here, program scientists continue to provide leadership to the national and international geomagnetic, magnetotelluric, and space-weather communities.

Circular↗
USGS2020

Forage and habitat for pollinators in the northern Great Plains—Implications for U.S. Department of Agriculture conservation programs

Managed and wild pollinators are critical components of agricultural and natural systems. Despite the well-known value of insect pollinators to U.S. agriculture, Apis mellifera (Linnaeus, 1758; honey bees) and wild bees currently face numerous stressors that have resulted in declining health. These declines have engendered support for pollinator conservation efforts across all levels of government, private businesses, and nongovernmental organizations. In 2014, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the U.S. Geological Survey initiated an interagency agreement to evaluate honey bee forage across multiple States in the northern Great Plains and upper Midwest. The long-term goal of this study was to provide an empirical evaluation of floral resources used by honey bees, and the relative contribution of multiple land covers and USDA conservation programs to bee health and productivity. Our multi-State analysis of land-use change from 2006 to 2016 revealed loss of grassland and increases in corn and soybean area in North and South Dakota, representing a significant loss of bee-friendly land covers in areas that support the highest density of summer bee yards in the entire United States. Our landscape models demonstrate the importance of the Conservation Reserve Program in providing safe locations for beekeepers to keep honey bees during the summer and highlights how land use in the northern Great Plains has a lasting effect on the health of honey bee colonies during almond pollination the subsequent spring. Our multiseason, multi-State genetic analysis of honey bee-collected pollen revealed Melilotus spp., Asteraceae, Trifolium spp., Fabaceae, Sonchus arvensis , Symphyotrichum cordifolium , and Solidago spp. were the top taxa detected; Melilotus spp. represented 42 percent of all detected taxa. Symphyotrichum cordifolium , Solidago spp., and Grindelia spp. were the top native forbs detected in honey bee-collected pollen. We also conducted plant and bee surveys on private lands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program and Environmental Quality Incentives Program. In general, we found significant variability in floral resources and pollinator utilization across USDA programs and practices. On average, greater than 75 percent of honey bee flower observations on private lands enrolled in a USDA conservation program were on non-native forbs, whereas 33 percent of wild bee flower observations were on non-native forbs. Melilotus officinalis and Medicago sativa were the most visited by honey bees, wherease Medicago sativa and Helianthus maximiliani were the most visited by wild bees. Our analysis of nectar dearth periods in June and September for honey bees revealed that although Melilotus officinalis and Medicago sativa were highly visited, less common native forb species such as Ratibida columnifera , Agastache foeniculum , and Gaillardia aristata were preferred species. However, these preferred species were relatively rare on the landscape and are, therefore, unlikely to make up a sizable part of the honey bee diet. In addition to our empirical results, we also showcase how the U.S. Geological Survey Pollinator Library, a decision-support tool for natural resource managers, can be used to design cost-effective seeding mixes for pollinators. Collectively, the results of this research will assist USDA with maximizing the ecological impact and cost-effectiveness of their conservation programs on pollinators in the northern Great Plains.

Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota↗
USGS2011

Surface-water nutrient conditions and sources in the United States Pacific Northwest

The SPAtially Referenced Regressions On Watershed attributes (SPARROW) model was used to perform an assessment of surface-water nutrient conditions and to identify important nutrient sources in watersheds of the Pacific Northwest region of the United States (U.S.) for the year 2002. Our models included variables representing nutrient sources as well as landscape characteristics that affect nutrient delivery to streams. Annual nutrient yields were higher in watersheds on the wetter, west side of the Cascade Range compared to watersheds on the drier, east side. High nutrient enrichment (relative to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's recommended nutrient criteria) was estimated in watersheds throughout the region. Forest land was generally the largest source of total nitrogen stream load and geologic material was generally the largest source of total phosphorus stream load generated within the 12,039 modeled watersheds. These results reflected the prevalence of these two natural sources and the low input from other nutrient sources across the region. However, the combined input from agriculture, point sources, and developed land, rather than natural nutrient sources, was responsible for most of the nutrient load discharged from many of the largest watersheds. Our results provided an understanding of the regional patterns in surface-water nutrient conditions and should be useful to environmental managers in future water-quality planning efforts.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗
USGS1995

Potential hazards from flood in part of the Chalone Creek and Bear Valley drainage basins, Pinnacles National Monument, California

Areas of Chalone Creek and Bear Valley drainage basins in Pinnacles National Monument, California, are subject to frontal storms that can cause major flooding from November to April in areas designated for public use. To enhance visitor safety and to protect cultural and natural resources, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the National Park Service studied flood-hazard potentials within the boundaries of the Pinnacles National Monument. This study area extends from about a quarter of a mile north of Chalone Creek Campground to the mouth of Bear Valley and from the east monument entrance to Chalone Creek. Historical data of precipitation and floodflow within the monument area are sparse to nonexistent, therefore, U.S. Soil Conservation Service unit-hydrograph procedures were used to determine the magnitude of a 100-year flood. Because of a lack of specific storm-rainfall data, a simulated storm was applied to the basins using a digital-computer model developed by the Soil Conservation Service. A graphical relation was used to define the regionally based maximum flood for Chalone Creek and Bear Valley. Water-surface elevations and inundation areas were determined using a conventional step-backwater program. Flood-zone boundaries were derived from the computed water-surface elevations. The 100-year flood plain for both streams would be inundated at all points by the regional maximum flood. Most of the buildings and proposed building sites in the monument area are above the elevation of the 100-year flood, except the proposed building sites near the horse corral and the east monument entrance. The 100-year flood may cause reverse flow through a 12-inch culvert embedded in the embankment of Old Pinnacles Campground Road in the center of Chalone Creek Campground. The likelihood of this occurring is dependant upon the amount of aggradation that occurs upstream; therefore, the campground area also is considered to be within the 100-year flood zone.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2022

Hydrogeology and simulation of groundwater flow in the Lucerne Valley groundwater basin, California

The Lucerne Valley is in the southwestern part of the Mojave Desert and is about 75 miles northeast of Los Angeles, California. The Lucerne Valley groundwater basin encompasses about 230 square miles and is separated from the Upper Mojave Valley groundwater basin by splays of the Helendale Fault. Since its settlement, groundwater has been the primary source of water for agricultural, industrial, municipal, and domestic uses. Groundwater withdrawal from pumping has exceeded the amount of water recharged to the basin, causing groundwater declines of more than 100 feet between 1917 and 2016 in the center of the basin. The continued withdrawal has resulted in an increase in pumping costs, reduced well efficiency, and land subsidence near Lucerne Lake. Although the volume of pumping has declined in recent years, there is concern that new agricultural growth and limits on imported water will continue to strain the sustainability of the groundwater system. To address these concerns, the U.S. Geological Survey entered into a cooperative agreement with the Mojave Water Agency to develop a better understanding of the Lucerne Valley hydrogeologic system and provide tools to help evaluate and manage the effects of future development in the Lucerne Valley. The objectives of this study were to (1) improve the understanding of the aquifer system, (2) improve the understanding of subsidence in the basin, and (3) incorporate the understanding into a groundwater-flow model that can be used to help manage the groundwater resources in the Lucerne Valley. The model developed for this study covers the period of 1942–2016 and can help evaluate various proposed water-management scenarios during different climatic and hydrologic conditions. The aquifer system consists of a shallow aquifer, a confining unit, and middle and lower aquifers. These layered water-bearing units were identified based on geologic units of the mostly unconsolidated sediments and hydrologic properties. These alluvial deposits consist of clay, silt, sand, and gravel; some places also contain clay and silty clay lacustrine deposits. Several faults act, at least in part, as barriers to groundwater flow on the eastern, southern, and western edges of the basin. Present-day natural recharge is primarily from the infiltration of runoff from the San Bernardino Mountains to the south; however, stable and radioactive isotopes show that groundwater from the middle of the Lucerne Valley was older than about 10,000 years and probably was recharged as infiltration from streams draining the mountains in the Mojave Desert to the north, which probably does not occur under present-day climatic conditions. The annual average natural recharge for 1942–2016, estimated by a Basin Characterization Model, was about 635 acre-feet per year; the average amount of treated wastewater effluent transferred to the Lucerne Valley for artificial recharge annually ranged from about 1,500 to 4,000 acre-feet per year during 1980–2016. Pumpage estimates for 1942–2016 ranged from about 3,000 acre-feet in 1942 to about 18,300 acre-feet in 1984. The total cumulative amount of groundwater removed from the basin by pumping between 1942 and 2016 was estimated to be about 700,000 acre-feet, which was about 10 times greater than the cumulative amount of recharge to the entire Lucerne Valley groundwater basin. Before groundwater development, the direction of groundwater flow was from the southern part of the basin northward to discharge areas near Lucerne Lake, where it discharged through springs along the Helendale Fault and by evapotranspiration. Since the early 1900s, groundwater-level declines have mostly eliminated the areas where natural discharge occurred and exceeded 100 feet in the middle of the basin between the early 1950s and mid-1990s, and as much as 25 feet near the margins from about the mid-1950s to 2000s. A decrease in the rate of pumping after the mid-1990s lessened the hydraulic stress on the middle and lower aquifers and enabled hydraulic heads in the middle of the basin to recover slightly as groundwater near the margins of the basin moved toward the pumping depression. Although trends in groundwater levels in the center of the basin have reversed since the mid-1990s, levels at the basin margins continue to decline as the movement of groundwater from the margins fills the pumping depression and gradually flattens the groundwater table throughout the basin. The long-term extraction of groundwater and associated dewatering of the fine-grained sediments present within the aquifer system has resulted in aquifer compaction and consequently land subsidence, primarily near Lucerne Lake. Analysis of interferometric synthetic aperture radar data shows that almost 11 inches of land subsidence has occurred south of Lucerne Lake between April 1992 and November 2009; less subsidence occurred elsewhere in the basin during this period. This differential land subsidence has caused fissures and cracks in the ground surface, which have buckled the pavement and undercut roads in several locations. The Lucerne Valley Hydrologic Model was developed using the finite-difference groundwater modeling software One Water Hydrologic Model to represent the hydrologic conditions and stresses during 1942–2016. The model has a uniform grid of approximately 92 acres per cell (2,000 feet by 2,000 feet) and has four layers representing the water-bearing units. The results from the calibrated model simulations indicated that groundwater pumpage exceeded recharge, resulting in an estimated net cumulative depletion of groundwater storage (discharge minus recharge) of about 465,000 acre-feet from 1942 to 2016. The model simulated as much as 7.5 feet (90 inches; 2,286 millimeters) of aquifer compaction, which indicates the extensive fine-grained deposits and measured subsidence near Lucerne Lake.

California↗