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At least 955 records · Page 53Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Aquatic Trophic Productivity model: A decision support model for river restoration planning in the Methow River, Washington

Introduction The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed a dynamic food-web simulation model to provide decision support for Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) river restoration projects in the Methow River, Washington. This modeling effort was done to contribute to Reasonable and Prudent Alternative actions 56 and 57of the 2014 Federal Columbia River Power System Biological Opinion (FCRPS BO), which calls for exploration of modeling as a means to help evaluate Endangered Species Act (ESA)-listed fish response to river restoration efforts. In the Methow River, these species of concern include Upper Columbia River (UCR) spring Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and UCR summer steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ). Additionally, the Independent Scientific Advisory Board (ISAB) for the Columbia River has identified the need for modeling (Independent Scientific Advisory Board, 2011a)—including models that incorporate food-web dynamics (Independent Scientific Advisory Board, 2011b)—to better understand how restoration and management strategies might enhance salmon and steelhead populations. Dynamic food-web models, even relatively simple ones, can be valuable tools for exploring responses to river restoration. Although these models have rarely been applied to rivers and streams (but see Mcintire and Colby, 1978; Power and others, 1995), they are commonly used for management decisions in terrestrial and ocean ecosystems (Christensen and Pauly, 1993; Evans and others, 2013). One of the main strengths of these models is that they are rooted in the fundamental laws of thermodynamics (that is, mass balance). Moreover, these models can be easily adapted to different contexts by adding or subtracting different species from the web and by mechanistically linking the dynamics of web members to local environmental conditions, such as water temperature, stream discharge, and channel hydraulics (Power and others, 1995; Doyle, 2006). Alternative management actions can then be evaluated by changing these environmental conditions to simulate potential outcomes following restoration. In this report, we outline the structure of a stream food-web model constructed to explore how alternative river restoration strategies may affect stream fish populations. We have termed this model the “Aquatic Trophic Productivity model” (ATP). We present the model structure, followed by three case study applications of the model to segments of the Methow River watershed in northern Washington. For two case studies (middle Methow River and lower Twisp River floodplain), we ran a series of simulations to explore how food-web dynamics respond to four distinctly different, but applied, strategies in the Methow River watershed: (1) reconnection of floodplain aquatic habitats, (2) riparian vegetation planting, (3) nutrient augmentation (that is, salmon carcass addition), and (4) enhancement of habitat suitability for fish. For the third case study, we conducted simulations to explore the potential fish and food-web response to habitat improvements conducted in 2012 at the Whitefish Island Side Channel, located in the middle Methow River.

Washington↗
USGS1976

Documentation of finite-difference model for simulation of three-dimensional ground-water flow

User experience has indicated that the documentation of the model of three-dimensional ground-water flow (Trescott and Larson, 1975) should be expanded. This supplement is intended to fulfill that need. The original report emphasized the theory of the strongly implicit procedure, instructions for using the groundwater-flow model, and practical considerations for application. (See also W76-02962 and W76-13085) (Woodard-USGS)

Open-File Report↗
USGS2004

Water Quality in the Delmarva Peninsula, Delaware, Maryland, and Virginia, 1999-2001

This report contains the major findings of a 1999-2001 assessment of water quality in the Delmarva Peninsula. It is one of a series of reports by the National Water-Quality Assessment (NAWQA) Program that present major findings in 51 major river basins and aquifer systems across the Nation. In these reports, water quality is assessed at many scales?from local ground-water flow paths to regional ground-water networks and in surface water?and is discussed in terms of local, State, and regional issues. Conditions in the Delmarva Peninsula are compared to conditions found elsewhere and to selected national benchmarks, such as those for drinking-water quality and the protection of aquatic organisms. This report is intended for individuals working with water-resource issues in Federal, State, or local agencies; universities; public interest groups; or in the private sector. The information will be useful in addressing a number of current issues, such as the effects of agricultural and urban land use on water quality, human health, drinking water, source-water protection, hypoxia and excessive growth of algae and plants, pesticide registration, and monitoring and sampling strategies. This report is also for individuals who wish to know more about the quality of streams and ground water in areas near where they live, and how that water quality compares to the quality of water in other areas across the Nation. Other products describing water-quality conditions in the Delmarva Peninsula are available. Detailed technical information, data and analyses, methodology, models, graphs, and maps that support the findings presented in this report can be accessed from http://md.water.usgs.gov/delmarva. Other reports in this series and data collected from other basins can be accessed from the national NAWQA Web site (http://water.usgs.gov/nawqa).

Circular↗
USGS2020

Use of multiple temperature logger models can alter conclusions

Remote temperature loggers are often used to measure water temperatures for ecological studies and by regulatory agencies to determine whether water quality standards are being maintained. Equipment specifications are often given a cursory review in the methods; however, the effect of temperature logger model is rarely addressed in the discussion. In a laboratory environment, we compared measurements from three models of temperature loggers at 5 to 40 °C to better understand the utility of these devices. Mean water temperatures recorded by logger models differed statistically even for those with similar accuracy specifications, but were still within manufacturer accuracy specifications. Maximum mean temperature difference between models was 0.4 °C which could have regulatory and ecological implications, such as when a 0.3 °C temperature change triggers a water quality violation or increases species mortality rates. Additionally, precision should be reported as the overall precision (including a consideration of significant digits) for combined model types which in our experiment was 0.7 °C, not the ≤0.4 °C for individual models. Our results affirm that analyzing data collected by different logger models can result in potentially erroneous conclusions when <1 °C difference has regulatory compliance or ecological implications and that combining data from multiple logger models can reduce the overall precision of results.

Water↗
USGS2003

Species area relationships in mediterranean-climate plant communities

Aim To determine the best-fit model of species–area relationships for Mediterranean-type plant communities and evaluate how community structure affects these species–area models. Location Data were collected from California shrublands and woodlands and compared with literature reports for other Mediterranean-climate regions. Methods The number of species was recorded from 1, 100 and 1000 m 2 nested plots. Best fit to the power model or exponential model was determined by comparing adjusted r 2 values from the least squares regression, pattern of residuals, homoscedasticity across scales, and semi-log slopes at 1–100 m 2 and 100–1000 m 2 . Dominance–diversity curves were tested for fit to the lognormal model, MacArthur's broken stick model, and the geometric and harmonic series. Results Early successional Western Australia and California shrublands represented the extremes and provide an interesting contrast as the exponential model was the best fit for the former, and the power model for the latter, despite similar total species richness. We hypothesize that structural differences in these communities account for the different species–area curves and are tied to patterns of dominance, equitability and life form distribution. Dominance–diversity relationships for Western Australian heathlands exhibited a close fit to MacArthur's broken stick model, indicating more equitable distribution of species. In contrast, Californian shrublands, both postfire and mature stands, were best fit by the geometric model indicating strong dominance and many minor subordinate species. These regions differ in life form distribution, with annuals being a major component of diversity in early successional Californian shrublands although they are largely lacking in mature stands. Both young and old Australian heathlands are dominated by perennials, and annuals are largely absent. Inherent in all of these ecosystems is cyclical disequilibrium caused by periodic fires. The potential for community reassembly is greater in Californian shrublands where only a quarter of the flora resprout, whereas three quarters resprout in Australian heathlands. Other Californian vegetation types sampled include coniferous forests, oak savannas and desert scrub, and demonstrate that different community structures may lead to a similar species–area relationship. Dominance–diversity relationships for coniferous forests closely follow a geometric model whereas associated oak savannas show a close fit to the lognormal model. However, for both communities, species–area curves fit a power model. The primary driver appears to be the presence of annuals. Desert scrub communities illustrate dramatic changes in both species diversity and dominance–diversity relationships in high and low rainfall years, because of the disappearance of annuals in drought years. Main conclusions Species–area curves for immature shrublands in California and the majority of Mediterranean plant communities fit a power function model. Exceptions that fit the exponential model are not because of sampling error or scaling effects, rather structural differences in these communities provide plausible explanations. The exponential species–area model may arise in more than one way. In the highly diverse Australian heathlands it results from a rapid increase in species richness at small scales. In mature California shrublands it results from very depauperate richness at the community scale. In both instances the exponential model is tied to a preponderance of perennials and paucity of annuals. For communities fit by a power model, coefficients z and log c exhibit a number of significant correlations with other diversity parameters, suggesting that they have some predictive value in ecological communities.

Journal of Biogeography↗
USGS2020

Simulation of the probabilistic plume extent for a potential replacement wastewater-infiltration lagoon, and probabilistic contributing areas for supply wells for the Town of Lac du Flambeau, Vilas County, Wisconsin

An existing two-dimensional, steady-state groundwater-flow model of the shallow groundwater-flow system of the Lac du Flambeau Reservation in Vilas County, Wisconsin, originally developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, was used to simulate the potential for wastewater from a proposed relocation of a wastewater lagoon to contaminate the Lac du Flambeau Band of Lake Superior Chippewa’s drinking-water-supply wells. This simulation was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Lac du Flambeau Band of Lake Superior Chippewa and Indian Health Service. The simulated scenarios consisted of removing wastewater infiltration from existing lagoons and re-applying that infiltration at the proposed location. Two analyses were performed for the scenarios. First, the probable extent of the plume discharging from the proposed infiltration lagoons was mapped with a Monte Carlo algorithm that used uncertainty identified during the calibration process to simulate thousands of possible outcomes. Second, the Monte Carlo method was again used to simulate a probabilistic contributing area for the Tribe’s nearby “Main Pumphouse” supply wells. The purpose of the simulations was to evaluate the potential for infiltrated wastewater to be captured by the public-supply wells. Most features of the previously developed model remained unchanged, including calibrated parameters such as hydraulic conductivity and recharge. Thus, the same covariance distributions that were generated during calibration of the regional model (Juckem and others, 2014) remained unchanged and were used to inform the Monte Carlo simulations for the scenario simulations described in this report. The reader is encouraged to read the full report by Juckem and others (available at https://doi.org/10.3133/sir20145020 ) for a detailed description of the model design and calibration, as well as a description of the Monte Carlo method, its limitations, and the original results. Results for these new scenarios indicate that the probabilistic plume extent for the proposed infiltration lagoons does not reach the Main Pumphouse wells using pumping rates and wastewater volumes estimated for 2010. Similarly, the contributing area for the Main Pumphouse wells does not capture water from within the proposed infiltration lagoon footprint. However, at higher pumping rates and wastewater volumes, as projected by the Tribe for about 2035, the contributing area for the Main Pumphouse wells do include particles that originated within the proposed lagoon footprint, albeit at low probabilities. That is, for a few of the thousands of simulations that represented a range of calibration-informed parameter covariances, some amount of infiltrated wastewater was captured by the Main Pumphouse wells under projected 2035 conditions.

Wisconsin↗
USGS2026

Decision analysis in support of proactive planning for chronic wasting disease in Vermont, USA

Chronic wasting disease (CWD), a fatal, transmissible disease in white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) and related species, is spreading across North America but has not yet been detected in Vermont, United States (U.S.). The Vermont Department of Fish and Wildlife, along with partner agencies, wants to develop a proactive prevention and response plan in anticipation of the eventual detection of the disease. Between September 2023 and September 2025, staff from the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Vermont facilitated a structured decision-making (SDM) process with seven State and Federal agencies that have jurisdiction over some aspect of CWD management in Vermont. The aim of this process was to generate and evaluate alternative response plans against a range of long-term objectives important to the agencies. To aid in the evaluation of the alternatives, we developed a linked set of models for white-tailed deer population and disease dynamics, hunter participation and health, forest health, economic consequences, and agricultural opportunities related to the actions being contemplated as part of the response plan. We evaluated over 256 different permutations of management actions and used multi-criteria decision analysis, a branch of decision analysis designed to help decision makers navigate tradeoffs among competing objectives, to summarize the performance of those alternative strategies against the desired outcomes. Proactive actions—those designed to slow the arrival of CWD to Vermont—were moderately effective, but the most important proactive action was surveillance to detect the disease early after arrival, which triggered response actions after detection. With the insights generated by the SDM process and the results of the analyses, the participating agencies were able to identify a preferred strategy and outline the elements of a proactive response plan. This report describes the SDM process, the technical details of the modeling work, and the results of the analyses. It is intended to serve as the technical basis for Vermont’s response plan.

BioRxiv↗
USGS2013

Erosion monitoring along the Coosa River below Logan Martin Dam near Vincent, Alabama, using terrestrial light detection and ranging (T-LiDAR) technology

Alabama Power operates a series of dams on the Coosa River in east central Alabama. These dams form six reservoirs that provide power generation, flood control, recreation, economic opportunity, and fish and wildlife habitats to the region. The Logan Martin Reservoir is located approximately 45 kilometers east of Birmingham and borders Saint Clair and Talladega Counties. Discharges below the reservoir are controlled by power generation at Logan Martin Dam, and there has been an ongoing concern about the stability of the streambanks downstream of the dam. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Alabama Power conducted a scientific investigation of the geomorphic conditions of a 115-meter length of streambank along the Coosa River by using tripod-mounted terrestrial light detection and ranging technology. Two surveys were conducted before and after the winter flood season of 2010 to determine the extent and magnitude of geomorphic change. A comparison of the terrestrial light detection and ranging datasets indicated that approximately 40 cubic meters of material had been eroded from the upstream section of the study area. The terrestrial light detection and ranging data included in this report consist of electronic point cloud files containing several million georeferenced data points, as well as a surface model measuring changes between scans.

Alabama↗
USGS2004

Geohydrology of the French Creek Basin and simulated effects of drought and ground-water withdrawals, Chester County, Pennsylvania

This report describes the results of a study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Delaware River Basin Commission, to develop a regional ground-water-flow model of the French Creek Basin in Chester County, Pa. The model was used to assist water-resource managers by illustrating the interconnection between ground-water and surface-water systems. The 70.7-square mile French Creek Basin is in the Piedmont Physiographic Province and is underlain by crystalline and sedimentary fractured-rock aquifers. Annual water budgets were calculated for 1969-2001 for the French Creek Basin upstream of streamflow-measurement station French Creek near Phoenixville (01472157). Average annual precipitation was 46.28 in. (inches), average annual streamflow was 20.29 in., average annual base flow determined by hydrograph separation was 12.42 in., and estimated average annual ET (evapotranspiration) was 26.10 in. Estimated average annual recharge was 14.32 in. and is equal to 31 percent of the average annual precipitation. Base flow made up an average of 61 percent of streamflow. Ground-water flow in the French Creek Basin was simulated using the finite-difference MODFLOW-96 computer program. The model structure is based on a simplified two-dimensional conceptualization of the ground-water-flow system. The modeled area was extended outside the French Creek Basin to natural hydrologic boundaries; the modeled area includes 40 square miles of adjacent areas outside the basin. The hydraulic conductivity for each geologic unit was calculated from reported specific-capacity data determined from aquifer tests and was adjusted during model calibration. The model was calibrated for above-average conditions by simulating base-flow and water-level measurements made on May 1, 2001, using a recharge rate of 20 in/yr (inches per year). The model was calibrated for below-average conditions by simulating base-flow and water-level measurements made on September 11 and 17, 2001, using a recharge rate of 6.2 in/yr. Average conditions were simulated by adjusting the recharge rate until simulated streamflow at streamflow-measurement station 01472157 matched the long-term (1968-2001) average base flow of 54.1 cubic feet per second. The recharge rate used for average conditions was 15.7 in/yr. The effect of drought in the French Creek Basin was simulated using a drought year recharge rate of 8 in/yr for 3 months. After 3 months of drought, the simulated streamflow of French Creek at streamflow-measurement station 01472157 decreased 34 percent. The simulations show that after 6 months of average recharge (15.7 in/yr) following drought, streamflow and water levels recovered almost to pre-drought conditions. The effect of increased ground-water withdrawals on stream base flow in the South Branch French Creek Subbasin was simulated under average and drought conditions with pumping rates equal to 50, 75, and 100 percent of the Delaware River Basin Commission Ground Water Protected Area (GWPA) withdrawal limit (1,393 million gallons per year) with all pumped water removed from the basin. For average recharge conditions, the simulated streamflow of South Branch French Creek at the mouth decreased 18, 28, and 37 percent at a withdrawal rate equal to 50, 75, and 100 percent of the GWPA limit, respectively. After 3 months of drought recharge conditions, the simulated streamflow of South Branch French Creek at the mouth decreased 27, 40, and 52 percent at a withdrawal rate equal to 50, 75, and 100 percent of the GWPA limit, respectively. The effect of well location on base flow, water levels, and the sources of water to the well was simulated by locating a hypothetical well pumping 200 gallons per minute in different places in the Beaver Run Subbasin with all pumped water removed from the basin. The smallest reduction in the base flow of Beaver Run was from a well on the drainage divide between the French Creek Basin and the Marsh Creek Basin to the south; the simulated base flow of Beaver Run at the mouth was reduced 1 percent. The greatest reduction in the base flow of Beaver Creek was from a well close to Beaver Run; the simulated base flow of Beaver Run at the mouth was reduced 8 percent. The simulations showed that (1) if the contributing area of a well is in a basin, pumping will affect stream base flow and water levels in that basin whether the well is inside or outside that basin; (2) wells in different areas of a basin away from a divide produce a similar reduction in base flow; (3) a well within a basin will derive more water from diverted base flow and less water from storage than a well on or near a basin divide; and (4) the reduction in base flow at the mouth of the stream is the same for a well in the headwaters and a well downstream near the confluence. Model simulations illustrate some of the typical analyses and results that can be produced. The model was calibrated using annual values for recharge and ground-water ET and then was run using the annual values in a seasonally independent transient mode to show changes with time. The timing and relative magnitude of some of the changes simulated with the model when viewed in terms of a normal climatic year may be subject to considerable uncertainty because of the variability in seasonal recharge and ground-water ET rates. Transient model simulations for short-term periods are indicative of possible hydrologic system response and are considered an approximation.

Pennsyvlania↗
USGS2016

Volcanic aquifers of Hawai‘i—Hydrogeology, water budgets, and conceptual models

Hawai‘i’s aquifers have limited capacity to store fresh groundwater because each island is small and surrounded by saltwater. Saltwater also underlies much of the fresh groundwater. Fresh groundwater resources are, therefore, particularly vulnerable to human activity, short-term climate cycles, and long-term climate change. Availability of fresh groundwater for human use is constrained by the degree to which the impacts of withdrawal—such as lowering of the water table, saltwater intrusion, and reduction in the natural discharge to springs, streams, wetlands, and submarine seeps—are deemed acceptable. This report describes the hydrogeologic framework, groundwater budgets (inflows and outflows), conceptual models of groundwater occurrence and movement, and the factors limiting groundwater availability for the largest and most populated of the Hawaiian Islands—Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, Maui, and Hawai‘i Island. The bulk of each of Hawai‘i’s islands is built of many thin lava flows erupted from shield volcanoes; the great piles of lava flows form highly permeable aquifers. In some areas, low-permeability dikes cutting across the lava flows, or low-permeability ash and soil horizons interlayered with the lava flows, can substantially alter groundwater flow. On some islands, sedimentary rocks form thick semiconfining coastal-plain deposits, locally known as caprock, that impede natural groundwater discharge to the ocean. In some regions, thick lava flows that ponded in preexisting depressions form aquifers that are much less permeable than aquifers formed by thin lava flows. Fresh groundwater inflow to Hawai‘i’s aquifers comes from recharge. For predevelopment conditions (1870), estimates of groundwater recharge from this study are 871, 675, 1,279, and 5,291 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) for Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, Maui, and Hawai‘i Island, respectively. Estimates of recharge for recent conditions (2010 land cover and 1978–2007 rainfall for Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, and Maui; 2008 land cover and 1916–1983 rainfall for Hawai‘i Island) are 875, 660, 1,308, and 6,595 Mgal/d for Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, Maui, and Hawai‘i Island, respectively. Recent recharge values differ from predevelopment recharge values by only a few percent for all islands except Hawai‘i Island, where changes in forest cover affected recharge. Spatial distribution of recharge mimics the orographic rainfall pattern—recharge is high on windward slopes and mountain peaks below the top of the trade-wind inversion. Human activity such as irrigation also contributes to recharge in some areas. Outflows from Hawai‘i’s aquifers include withdrawals from wells and natural groundwater discharge to springs, streams, wetlands, and submarine seeps. Under predevelopment conditions, groundwater withdrawal is assumed to be negligible and natural groundwater discharge probably was equal, or close, to recharge. Under recent conditions (2000–2010), groundwater withdrawal averaged 19, 209, 104, and 103 Mgal/d on Kaua‘i, O‘ahu, Maui, and Hawai‘i Island, respectively. If recent withdrawal and recharge rates are maintained until steady state is achieved, natural groundwater discharge will be reduced by an amount equal to the withdrawal rate. Total recent withdrawal for the four islands is only about 5 percent of total recharge, but about half of the withdrawal comes from O‘ahu, whereas O‘ahu receives only 7 percent of the total recharge. Effects of high withdrawals on O‘ahu cannot be mitigated by the lower withdrawals on other islands because no freshwater flows between islands. Even within an island, high withdrawals from one area cannot be completely mitigated by recharge in another area. Water-level, saltwater/freshwater-transition-zone, spring, and stream base-flow data indicate an overall reduction in storage for most areas where groundwater has been developed. Groundwater occurrence and movement in Hawai‘i’s volcanic aquifers can be described in terms of four conceptual models: (1) fresh groundwater lenses in high-permeability lava-flow aquifers, (2) aquifers with groundwater impounded by dikes, (3) thickly saturated low-permeability aquifers, and (4) perched aquifers. In Hawai‘i, most fresh groundwater withdrawn for human use comes from freshwater lenses in the dike-free high-permeability lava-flow aquifers where the principal limiting factor to groundwater availability is saltwater intrusion, but impacts of reduced natural groundwater discharge may also limit availability. Dike-impounded groundwater is common near the center of Hawaiian shield volcanoes, where water moves and is stored in permeable lava flows between the dikes; groundwater availability in these aquifers is primarily limited by storage depletion and reduction of flow to adjacent aquifers and natural groundwater discharge. Thickly saturated low-permeability aquifers have been identified on Kaua‘i and Maui; groundwater availability is primarily limited by streamflow depletion and water-table decline. Perched groundwater is postulated to exist in some areas of Hawai‘i, but store much less water than other modes ofgroundwater occurrence. Limits on groundwater availability in perched aquifers include the potential of reducing inflow to other groundwater settings and reducing natural discharge and stream seepage. Some groundwater bodies in Hawai‘i are enigmatic; consequences of groundwater development in these bodies and their relation to groundwater availability are not completely understood.

Hawai'i↗
USGS2011

Use of multidimensional modeling to evaluate a channel restoration design for the Kootenai River, Idaho

River channel construction projects aimed at restoring or improving degraded waterways have become common but have been variously successful. In this report a methodology is proposed to evaluate channel designs before channels are built by using multidimensional modeling and analysis. This approach allows detailed analysis of water-surface profiles, sediment transport, and aquatic habitat that may result if the design is implemented. The method presented here addresses the need to model a range of potential stream-discharge and channel-roughness conditions to best assess the function of the design channel for a suite of possible conditions. This methodology is demonstrated by using a preliminary channel-restoration design proposed for a part of the Kootenai River in northern Idaho designated as critical habitat for the endangered white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) and evaluating the design on the basis of simulations with the Flow and Sediment Transport with Morphologic Evolution of Channels (FaSTMECH) model. This evaluation indicated substantial problems with the preliminary design because boundary conditions used in the design were inconsistent with best estimates of future conditions. As a result, simulated water-surface levels did not meet target levels that corresponded to the designed bankfull surfaces; therefore, the flood plain would not function as intended. Sediment-transport analyses indicated that both the current channel of the Kootenai River and the design channel are largely unable to move the bed material through the reach at bankfull discharge. Therefore, sediment delivered to the design channel would likely be deposited within the reach instead of passing through it as planned. Consequently, the design channel geometry would adjust through time. Despite these issues, the design channel would provide more aquatic habitat suitable for spawning white sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus) at lower discharges than is currently available in the Kootenai River. The evaluation methodology identified potential problems with the design channel that can be addressed through design modifications to better meet project objectives before channel construction.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2012

Quick-start guide for version 3.0 of EMINERS - Economic Mineral Resource Simulator

Quantitative mineral resource assessment, as developed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), consists of three parts: (1) development of grade and tonnage mineral deposit models; (2) delineation of tracts permissive for each deposit type; and (3) probabilistic estimation of the numbers of undiscovered deposits for each deposit type (Singer and Menzie, 2010). The estimate of the number of undiscovered deposits at different levels of probability is the input to the EMINERS (Economic Mineral Resource Simulator) program. EMINERS uses a Monte Carlo statistical process to combine probabilistic estimates of undiscovered mineral deposits with models of mineral deposit grade and tonnage to estimate mineral resources. It is based upon a simulation program developed by Root and others (1992), who discussed many of the methods and algorithms of the program. Various versions of the original program (called "MARK3" and developed by David H. Root, William A. Scott, and Lawrence J. Drew of the USGS) have been published (Root, Scott, and Selner, 1996; Duval, 2000, 2012). The current version (3.0) of the EMINERS program is available as USGS Open-File Report 2004-1344 (Duval, 2012). Changes from version 2.0 include updating 87 grade and tonnage models, designing new templates to produce graphs showing cumulative distribution and summary tables, and disabling economic filters. The economic filters were disabled because embedded data for costs of labor and materials, mining techniques, and beneficiation methods are out of date. However, the cost algorithms used in the disabled economic filters are still in the program and available for reference for mining methods and milling techniques included in Camm (1991). EMINERS is written in C++ and depends upon the Microsoft Visual C++ 6.0 programming environment. The code depends heavily on the use of Microsoft Foundation Classes (MFC) for implementation of the Windows interface. The program works only on Microsoft Windows XP or newer personal computers. It does not work on Macintosh computers. This report demonstrates how to execute EMINERS software using default settings and existing deposit models. Many options are available when setting up the simulation. Information and explanations addressing these optional parameters can be found in the EMINERS Help files. Help files are available during execution of EMINERS by selecting EMINERS Help from the pull-down menu under Help on the EMINERS menu bar. There are four sections in this report. Part I describes the installation, setup, and application of the EMINERS program, and Part II illustrates how to interpret the text file that is produced. Part III describes the creation of tables and graphs by use of the provided Excel templates. Part IV summarizes grade and tonnage models used in version 3.0 of EMINERS.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2020

A clarification on the effects of urbanization on Golden Eagle (Aquila chrysaetos) habitat selection

Introduction In 2018, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) published an Open-File Report ( Tracey and others, 2018 ) presenting a Bayesian habitat selection model for golden eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) in San Diego County, California. The model used telemetry data to examine the effects of urban development, exurban development, and topography (characterized by a topographic position index and a vector ruggedness measure, TPI and VRM respectively) on golden eagle habitat selection probability. Based on figures 3 and 6 of Tracey and others (2018) , we received inquiries from cooperators (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and California Department of Fish and Wildlife) about how the probability of eagle use declines with decreasing distance to the urban edge. Here, we clarify our results by addressing that question.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2022

Integrated strategies for enhanced rapid earthquake shaking, ground failure, and impact estimation employing remotely sensed and ground truth constraints

Estimating earthquake impacts using physical or empirical models is challenging because the three components of loss estimation-shaking, exposure, and vulnerabilities-entail inherent uncertainties. Loss modeling in near-real-time adds additional uncertainties, yet expectations for actionable information with a reasonable level of confidence in the results are real. The modeling approaches described herein augment inherently uncertain prior hazard and loss models with an integrated strategy for updating these priors with ground-truth observations, thereby greatly reducing their uncertainties. Two strategies are employed. Early reports of casualties are used in a Bayesian updating fashion to constrain the possible range of fatalities and to lower the prior models' uncertainties. Additionally, remotely sensed satellite radar data, in the form of a Damage Proxy Map (or DPM), are used in a Bayesian causal graph framework combined with machine learning to optimize the mapping among the physical processes that cause shaking-based building damage, landslides, and liquefaction to prior expectation models. The casual graph framework also affords the potential for removing anthropogenetic noise contained in the imagery. Ultimately, our two-fold model updating strategy will accommodate key ground-truth observations such as fatality reports, locations of building damage, and ground failure reports to converge on actual losses more rapidly.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2023

Calibrating optical turbidity measurements with suspended-sediment concentrations from the Herring River in Wellfleet, Massachusetts, from November 2018 to November 2019

The sediment budget in the tidally restricted Herring River in Wellfleet, Massachusetts, must be quantified so restoration options for the river can be evaluated. Platforms equipped with optical turbidity sensors were deployed seaward and landward of the Herring River restriction to measure a time series of turbidity, from which a time series of suspended-sediment concentration (SSC) can be estimated. Water samples were collected periodically from the Herring River from November 2018 to November 2019 and analyzed for SSC to derive a relationship to turbidity measurements given in nephelometric turbidity units. This report presents the data-collection methods used and the linear calibration model generated by repeated median regression to convert turbidity measurements to SSC.

Massachusetts↗
USGS2019

Regional-scale associations between indicators of biological integrity and indicators of streamflow modification

Although streamflow is widely recognized as a controlling factor in stream health, empirical relations between indicators of anthropogenic modification of streamflow and ecological indicators have been elusive. The objective of this report is to build upon specific findings reported in recent publications by providing a library of empirical models that describe the relations between streamflow modification and indicators of biological integrity. Biological monitoring data from 812 streams and rivers across the United States were matched with sites where daily streamflow was also monitored by the U.S. Geological Survey. Of these sites, 118 were sampled by the U.S. Geological Survey along gradients of streamflow modification within 3 regional focus studies. The integrity of invertebrate and fish communities was expressed as a binary variable, “impaired” or “unimpaired,” signifying whether or not the composition and structure of the biological community was statistically reduced relative to regional reference sites. Streamflow modification at each gaged site was quantified with 509 streamflow statistics scaled to express the ratio of observed streamflow conditions to site-specific expected conditions in the absence of human influences on watershed hydrology. For each region, generalized additive modeling was used to examine relations between each indicator of streamflow modification and indicators of biological integrity (response variable). In every region examined, statistically defensible and ecologically realistic relations were found between indicators of streamflow modification and indicators of biological integrity. These findings can aid practitioners and managers seeking to (1) propose empirically based hypotheses about the specific components of streamflow regimes that are critical to aquatic communities, which can subsequently be explored in detail in a region or river basin of interest; and (2) predict biological responses to anthropogenic modification of specific components of the streamflow regime.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2001

Use of a precipitation-runoff model to simulate natural streamflow conditions in the Methow River basin, Washington

Management of the water resources of the Methow River Basin is changing in response to the listing of three species of fish under the Endangered Species Act and the Washington State-legislated watershed-planning process. Management options must be considered that minimize adverse effects on people but meet instream flow needs for fish. This report describes the construction and calibration of the Methow River Basin watershed model and evaluates the accuracy of the model as a predictive tool for assessing the natural instream flow conditions. The term ?natural? instream flow is stressed because surface water within the Basin is used for agricultural irrigation through an extensive system of diversions. The USGS Modular Modeling System was used for the watershed modeling component of the Methow River Basin study. The Geographic Information System Weasel characterized the physical properties of the basin, and the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System simulated the natural streamflow. Natural streamflow conditions in the Basin were difficult to calibrate because six of the seven streamflow gaging stations are located below irrigation diversions and few streamflow measurements exist for the study area before the diversions were present. Therefore, limited records of natural streamflow conditions were available and estimations concerning some physical processes could not be quantified. Streamflow was simulated for water years 1992-99 to calibrate the model to measured streamflows. Simulated and measured streamflow generally showed close agreement, especially during spring runoff from snowmelt. Low-flow periods, most restrictive to fish habitation, were simulated reasonably well, yet possessed the most uncertainty. Simulations of the total annual runoff as a percentage of measured annual runoff for the 8-year calibration period at seven gaging stations ranged from -33.7 to +30.5 percent with 70 percent of the simulated values within 16 percent. Simulation of water years 1959-99 demonstrated great variability in monthly streamflow statistics. The simulated mean monthly flows for the seven streamflow-gaging stations were an average of 11.5 percent higher for the calibration period (1992-99) than for the entire simulation period (1959-99).

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2018

Development of a domestic earthquake alert protocol combining the USGS pager and FEMA Hazus systems

The U.S. Geological Survey’s PAGER automated alert system provides rapid (10-20 min) loss estimates in terms of ranges of fatalities and economic impact for all significant earthquakes around the globe. In contrast, FEMA’s Hazus software, which is currently operated manually by FEMA personnel internally within several hours of any large domestic earthquake, provides more detailed loss information quantified in terms of physical damage to the building stock, as well as a broad range of social and economic consequences estimated at a much higher spatial resolution (census-tract level). Hazus was originally designed for FEMA’s mitigation planning, but has been used of late for post-earthquake situational awareness. While the quick alerts generated automatically by the PAGER system are a suitable way to initially identify consequences for earthquakes, there remains a need to provide detailed loss information for facilitating a wider array of post-earthquake decisions among emergency managers. As such, we have developed a prototype summary product that takes advantage of the benefits of both these loss models for significant domestic earthquakes. The signature product, a new twoPAGER report, will serve as a supplement to the widely deployed standard onePAGER product for all significant domestic earthquakes. Page one is the standard, automated PAGER alert content, with summary alert levels for overall fatality and economic loss estimates, as well as summary content on recent earthquakes, structure vulnerability, and historical secondary hazards. As soon as the Hazus run using the most up-to-date version of the USGS ShakeMap is completed and reviewed by both agencies, the second alert page will be generated and delivered via the USGS website as an update. This second page will contain a summary of the more comprehensive Hazus model results, including spatially distributed estimates of: affected population, economic impact, non-fatal injuries, displaced households, and damage to structures (including potential building safety evaluation requirements). This enhancement does not affect the timeliness and the importance of the initial (onePAGER) alerting content for significant earthquakes; however, the twoPAGER report will provide more detailed, damage and loss/impact content for the Nation in the critical hours following a damaging earthquake.

Conference Paper↗