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Base of principal aquifer for parts of the North Platte, South Platte, and Twin Platte Natural Resources Districts, western Nebraska

Water resources in the North and South Platte River valleys of Nebraska, including the valley of Lodgepole Creek, are critical to the social and economic health of the area, and for the recovery of threatened and endangered species in the Platte River Basin. Groundwater and surface water are heavily used resources, and uses are regulated in the study area. Irrigation is the dominant water use and, in most instances, is supplied by both groundwater and surface-water sources. The U.S. Geological Survey and its partners have collaborated to use airborne geophysical surveys for areas of the North and South Platte River valleys including the valley of Lodgepole Creek in western Nebraska. The objective of the surveys was to map the aquifers and underlying bedrock topography of selected areas to help improve the understanding of groundwater–surface-water relations to guide water-management decisions. This project was a cooperative study involving the North Platte Natural Resources District, the South Platte Natural Resources District, the Twin Platte Natural Resources District, the Conservation and Survey Division of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, and the Nebraska Environmental Trust. This report presents the interpreted base-of-aquifer surface for part of the area consisting of the North Platte Natural Resources District, the South Platte Natural Resources District, and the Twin Platte Natural Resources District. The interpretations presented herein build on work done by previous researchers from 2008 to 2009 by incorporating additional airborne electromagnetic survey data collected in 2010 and additional test holes from separate, related studies. To make the airborne electromagnetic data useful, numerical inversion was used to convert the measured data into a depth-dependent subsurface resistivity model. An interpretation of the elevation and configuration of the base of aquifer was completed in a geographic information system that provided x, y, and z coordinates. The process of interpretation involved manually picking locations (base-of-aquifer elevations) on the displayed airborne electromagnetic-derived resistivity profile by the project geophysicist, hydrologist, and geologist. These locations, or picks, of the base-of-aquifer elevation (typically the top of the Brule Formation of the White River Group) were then stored in a georeferenced database. The pick was made by comparing the inverted airborne electromagnetic-derived resistivity profile to the lithologic descriptions and borehole geophysical logs from nearby test holes. The database of interpretive picks of the base-of-aquifer elevation was used to create primary input for interpolating the new base-of-aquifer contours. The automatically generated contours were manually adjusted based on the interpreted location of paleovalleys eroded into the base-of-aquifer surface and associated bedrock highs, many of which were unmapped before this study. When contours are overlain by the water-table surface, the saturated thickness of the aquifer can be computed, which allows an estimate of total water in storage. The contours of the base-of-aquifer surface presented in this report may be used as the lower boundary layer in existing and future groundwater-flow models. The integration of geophysical data into the contouring process facilitated a more continuous and spatially comprehensive view of the hydrogeologic framework.

Nebraska↗

Survey effort and targeted landbird community metrics at Indiana lowland forest restoration sites

Many sampling and analytical methods can estimate the abundance, distributions, and diversity of birds and other wildlife. However, challenges with sample size and analytical capacity can make these methods difficult to implement for resource-limited monitoring programs. To apprise efficient and attainable sampling designs for landbird monitoring programs with limited observational data, we used breeding season bird point survey data collected in 2016 at four forest restoration sites in Indiana, USA. We evaluated three subsets of observed species richness, total possibly breeding landbirds, Partners in Flight Regional Conservation Concern (PIF RCC) landbirds, and interior forest specialists (IFSs). Simulated surveys based on field data were used to conduct Bayesian Michaelis–Menten curve analyses estimating observed species as a function of sampling effort. On comparing simulated survey sets with multiple habitat types versus those with one habitat, we found that those with multiple habitat types had estimated 39%–83% greater observed PIF RCC species richness and required 41%–55% fewer visits per point to observe an equivalent proportion of PIF RCC species. Even with multiple habitats in a survey set, the number of visits per point required to detect 50% of observable species was 30% higher for PIF RCC species than for total breeding landbird species. Low detection rates of IFS species at two field sites made precise estimation of required effort to observe these species difficult. However, qualitatively, we found that only sites containing mature forest fragments had detections of several bird species designated as high-confidence IFS species. Our results suggest that deriving specialized species diversity metrics from point survey data can add value when interpreting those data. Additionally, designing studies to collect these metrics may require explicitly planning to visit multiple habitat types at a monitoring site and increasing the number of visits per survey point.

Indiana↗

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) surface-water interpolation model, version 3

The Everglades Depth Estimation Network (EDEN) is an integrated network of water-level gages, interpolation models that estimate daily water-level data at ungaged locations, and applications that generate derived hydrologic data across the freshwater part of the Greater Everglades landscape. Version 3 (V3) of the EDEN interpolation surface-water model is the most recent update, replacing the version 2 (V2) model released in 2011. The primary revision for the V3 model is the switch to the R programming language to create a more efficient and portable EDEN code relative to V2, without reliance on proprietary software. Using R, the interpolation script runs over 10 times faster and is more easily updated, for example, to accommodate changes in the gage network or to incorporate R software updates. Additional revisions made for the V3 model include updates to the interpolation model, the gage network, and groundwater-level estimations. The EDEN model domain in the Greater Everglades and Big Cypress National Preserve is divided into subdomains that are based on hydrologic boundaries. In the V3 model, the number of subdomains was increased from five to eight, which allows hydrologic boundaries, such as levees and canals, to be better represented in the interpolation scheme. Five pseudogages were added to constrain the water-level surface at subdomain boundaries. Changes made to the water-level gage network between the implementation of the V2 and V3 models are incorporated, and groundwater-level estimations are added, which are important information for hydrologic and ecological studies. Summary model performance statistics indicate similar accuracy in water-level surfaces generated by the V3 and V2 models, with a root mean square error of 4.78 centimeters for both interpolation models against independent water-level measurements. Providing stability and continuity for the EDEN user community, the V3 model closely replicates the V2 model, with a root mean square difference of 3.87 centimeters for interpolated surfaces from April 1, 2014, to March 31, 2018. The additional groundwater levels provide a realistic estimate of the saturated groundwater surface continuous with the surface-water surface for Water Conservation Areas 2A and 2B from 2000 to 2011. This continuous surface is a more accurate estimation of the spatial distribution of water in the hydrologic system than before, providing needed information for ecological studies in areas where depth to water table affects habitats. Development of the EDEN V3 model advances the tools available to scientists and resource managers for guiding large-scale field operations, describing hydrologic changes, and supporting biological and ecological assessments.

Florida↗

San Francisco Bay/delta regional monitoring program plankton and water quality pilot study, 1993, in 1993 Annual Report, San Francisco Estuary Regional Monitoring Program for Trace Substances: San Francisco Estuary Institute

The pilot program described here is motivated by a fundamental principle of the Regional Monitoring Strategy, namely “...the development of data that will provide information on status and trends in the Estuary.” As pointed out in the Strategy, knowledge of status and trends serves two primary purposes: (1) to become aware of or anticipate deleterious conditions in the Estuary, and (2) to assess the effectiveness of management actions. This program addresses these two purposes by focusing on aquatic resources, one of the five key management issues identified by the Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan and central to the Regional Monitoring Strategy. It also bears on at least two of the other management issues - pollutants and water use. A regional monitoring program must cover many types of resources, including pelagic and benthic channel habitat, shoal habitat, wetlands, river channels, sloughs, and small bays and harbors. This particular program centers on the pelagic channel habitat. However, because of the intimate connection between channel habitat and many or most of these other habitats, channel measurements reflect to some extent the status of and trends in other resource types as well. A primary aim of this program is to provide a high-resolution description of critical aspects of habitat quality, which can be used along with other information (1) to determine the suitability of habitat for aquatic resources; (2) to monitor responsiveness of the habitat to freshwater flow variability; and (3) to provide a context for understanding pollutant distributions. In a single transect, measurements are made throughout the water column at up to 37 stations to define physical (salinity, temperature, suspended particulate matter, and light penetration), chemical (dissolved oxygen) and biological (chlorophyll a ) characteristics that influence both chemical and biological reactions. A second aim of the program is to investigate planktonic indicators of ecosystem structure and function. Phytoplankton production is the major single source of energy for the San Francisco Bay food web. Our measurements of chlorophyll and light penetration can be used to provide an estimate of this production, and therefore the availability of food for organisms at higher trophic levels. Phytoplankton community composition at the species level, which can be a sensitive indicator of habitat change, is also a standard component of this program. Community composition data enable detection of species known to be responsible for harmful or nuisance algal blooms. In 1993, two other indicators were also evaluated, photosynthetic parameters and water column respiration . Photosynthetic parameters partially characterize the physiological state of the phytoplankton and may provide indirect evidence of nutrient deficiency or the effects of pollutants. Water column respiration serves as a simple integrated measure of organic matter metabolism by the plankton, including bacteria, phytoplankton, and microzooplankton. It therefore reflects the total supply of organic matter, whether from photosynthesis, tidal marsh efflux, point sources, or upstream in the Delta. These biological indicators therefore contain much information about the flow of energy into the food web.

California↗

A natural resource condition assessment for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks: Appendix 14: plants of conservation concern

Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks are located in the California Floristic Province, which has been named one of world‘s hotspots of endemic biodiversity (Myers et al. 2000). The California Floristic Province is the largest and most important geographic floristic unit in California and extends from the Klamath Mountains of southwestern Oregon to the northwestern portion of Baja California (Hickman 1993). The Sierra Nevada, one of six regions that make up the California Floristic Province, covers nearly 20% of the land in California yet contains over 50% of its flora. Within the Sierra Nevada, the southern Sierra supports more Sierran endemic and rare plant taxa than the central and northern portions of the region (Shevock 1996). Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SEKI) encompass roughly 20% of the southern Sierra Nevada region. The parks overlap three floristic subregions (central Sierra Nevada High, southern Sierra Nevada High, and southern Sierra Nevada Foothills), and border the Great Basin Floristic Province. The parks support a rich and diverse vascular flora composed of over 1,560 taxa. Of these, 150 taxa are identified as having special status. The term special status is applied here to include taxa that are state or federally listed, rare in California, or at risk because they have a limited distribution. Only one species from these parks is listed under the state or federal Endangered Species Acts ( Carex tompkinsii , Tompkins‘ sedge, is listed as a rare species under the California Endangered Species Act), and one species is under review for federal endangered listing ( Pinus albicaulis , whitebark pine). However, an absence of threatened and endangered species recognized by Endangered Species Acts is not equivalent to an absence of species at risk. There are 83 plant taxa documented as occurring in SEKI that are considered imperiled or vulnerable in the state by the California Department of Fish and Game‘s California Natural Diversity Database (CNDDB 2010a). There are an additional 66 taxa not formally listed by CNDDB that are recognized as having special status because their distribution is restricted to the Sierra Nevada. Special status plants are distributed throughout the two parks and inhabit a wide range of environments along the length of the elevation gradient that characterizes these parks. Ideally, we would assess the condition (status and trends) of each of the taxa on the SEKI special status plant list, documenting current population sizes, demographic rates and demographic trends. We would also hope to quantify the effects of individual stressors on each species based on existing monitoring and research. However, no data are available for most of the species on the special status plant list. For those few species (12 herbaceous species and two tree species) for which we possess some change over time information, the data are not adequate to make a competent assessment. Note that we have not explored the tree demographic information in any detail, as is covered in the NRCA Intact Forest/Five Needle Pines and Sequoia chapters. In general, we are unable to present an ‗integrity‘ metric for special status species in the parks, since the data to quantify the condition of each species in such a manner is not available. In contrast, the park does possess substantial data describing biodiversity in the parks. Therefore, our analysis focuses on describing the distribution and rarity of special status plants within the parks, with a particular focus on assessing the spatial distribution of species richness. We hope that such information will prove useful to park managers in determining which areas in the parks merit the most attention (for example in developing monitoring protocols). We also assess potential vulnerability of special status species to the stressors chosen by the NRCA working group, using both park data and available literature. As a first step, we spent considerable effort updating and refining the criteria for the special status plant list, as this list defines which taxa are considered in our assessment. Observation data of these species was then compiled from all known sources in order to provide a comprehensive view of where special status plants have been documented and, ultimately, to enable the most informed determinations of areas in the parks that potentially support the highest number of rare and endemic taxa. These ‗hot spot‘ analyses are presented by geographic region, vegetation type and elevation. For these and other analyses presented in this report, we place more focus on summarizing findings for the herbaceous and shrub special status taxa than on special status trees. The trees which qualify as special status are the focus of other NRCA chapters, including Giant Sequoia and Intact Forests/Five-needle Pines. We do, however, present their mapped distributions and provide overviews of research related to the special status tree taxa in the Stressors section of this report.

California↗

Analysis and simulation of water-level, specific conductance, and total phosphorus dynamics of the Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge, Florida, 1995-2006

The Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee Wildlife Refuge (Refuge) was established in 1951 through a license agreement between the South Florida Water Management District and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) as part of the Migratory Bird Conservation Act. Under the license agreement, the State of Florida owns the land of the Refuge and the USFWS manages the land. Fifty-seven miles of levees and borrow canals surround the Refuge. Water in the canals surrounding the marsh is controlled by inflows and outflows through control structures. The transport of canal water with higher specific conductance and nutrient concentrations to the interior marsh has the potential to alter critical ecosystem functions of the marsh. Data-mining techniques were applied to 12 years (1995-2006) of historical data to systematically synthesize and analyze the dataset to enhance the understanding of the hydrology and water quality of the Refuge. From the analysis, empirical models, including artificial neural network (ANN) models, were developed to answer critical questions related to the relative effects of controlled releases, precipitation, and meteorological forcing on water levels, specific conductance, and phosphorous concentrations of the interior marsh. Data mining is a powerful tool for converting large databases into information to solve complex problems resulting from large numbers of explanatory variables or poorly understood process physics. For the application of the linear regression and ANN models to the Refuge, data-mining methods were applied to maximize the information content in the raw data. Signal processing techniques used in the data analysis and model development included signal decomposition, digital filtering, time derivatives, time delays, and running averages. Inputs to the empirical models included time series, or signals, of inflows and outflows from the control structures, precipitation, and evapotranspiration. For a complex hydrologic system like the Refuge, the statistical accuracy of the models and predictive capability were good. The water-level models have coefficient of determination (R 2 values ranging from 0.90 to 0.98. The R 2 for the specific conductance model is 0.82, and the R2 for the total phosphorus model is 0.51. The accuracy of the models was attributable to the quantity and quality of the available data. To make the models directly available to all stakeholders, an easy-to-use decision support system (DSS) called the Loxahatchee Artificial Neural Network Model (LOXANN) DSS was developed as a spreadsheet application that integrates the historical database, linear regression and ANN models, model controls, streaming graphics, and model output. The LOXANN DSS allows Refuge managers and other users to easily execute the water level, specific conductance, and phosphorous models to evaluate various water-resource management scenarios. The user is able to choose from three options in setting the control-structure flows: as a percentage of historical flow, as a constant flow, or as a user-defined hydrograph. Output from the LOXANN DSS includes tabular time series of predictions of the measured data and predictions of the user-specified conditions. A three-dimensional visualization routine also was developed that displays longitudinal specific conductance conditions. Two scenarios were simulated with the LOXANN DSS. One scenario increased the historical flows at four control structures by 40 percent. The second scenario used a user-defined hydrograph to set the outflow from the Refuge to the weekly average inflow to the Refuge delayed by 2 days. Both scenarios decreased the potential of canal water intruding into the marsh by decreasing the slope of the water level between the canals and the marsh.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Using passive integrated transponder (PIT) systems for terrestrial detection of blue-spotted salamanders (Ambystoma laterale) in situ

Pure-diploid Blue-spotted Salamanders ( Ambystoma laterale ) are the smallest members of the family Ambystomatidae which makes tracking with radio-transmitters difficult because of small battery capacity. Passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags provide another tracking approach for small fossorial animals such as salamanders. We evaluated the use of portable PIT tag readers (PIT packs) to detect PIT tag-implanted pure-diploid Blue-spotted Salamanders in situ. We also examined the detection probability of salamanders with PIT tags held in enclosures in wetland and terrestrial habitats, as well as the underground detection range of PIT packs by scanning for buried tags not implanted into salamanders. Of the 532 PIT tagged salamanders, we detected 6.84% at least once during scanning surveys. We scanned systematically within a 13.37 ha area surrounding a salamander breeding pool on 34 occasions (~119 hours of survey time) and detected PIT tags 74 times. We detected 55% of PITs in tagged salamanders and 45%were expelled tags. We were able to reliably detect buried PIT tags from 1–22cm below the ground surface. Because nearly half the locations represented expelled tags, our data suggest this technique is inappropriate for future studies of pure-diploid Blue-spotted Salamanders, although it may be suitable for polyploid Blue-spotted Salamanders and other ambystomatid species, which are larger in size and may exhibit higher tag retention rates. It may also be prudent to conduct long-term tag retention studies in captivity before tagging and releasing salamanders for in situ study, and to double-mark individuals.

Herpetological Conservation and Biology↗

Releases of whooping cranes to the Florida nonmigratory flock: a structured decision-making approach: report to the International Whooping Crane Recovery Team, September 22, 2008

We used a structured decision-making approach to inform the decision of whether the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission should request of the International Whooping Crane Recovery Team that additional whooping crane chicks be released into the Florida Non-Migratory Population (FNMP). Structured decision-making is an application of decision science that strives to produce transparent, replicable, and defensible decisions that recognize the appropriate roles of management policy and science in decision-making. We present a multi-objective decision framework, where management objectives include successful establishment of a whooping crane population in Florida, minimization of costs, positive public relations, information gain, and providing a supply of captive-reared birds to alternative crane release projects, such as the Eastern Migratory Population. We developed models to predict the outcome relative to each of these objectives under 29 different scenarios of the release methodology used from 1993 to 2004, including options of no further releases and variable numbers of releases per year over the next 5-30 years. In particular, we developed a detailed set of population projection models, which make substantially different predictions about the probability of successful establishment of the FNMP. We used expert elicitation to develop prior model weights (measures of confidence in population model predictions); the results of the population model weighting and modelaveraging exercise indicated that the probability of successful establishment of the FNMP ranged from 9% if no additional releases are made, to as high as 41% with additional releases. We also used expert elicitation to develop weights (relative values) on the set of identified objectives, and we then used a formal optimization technique for identifying the optimal decision, which considers the tradeoffs between objectives. The optimal decision was identified as release of 3 cohorts (24 birds) per year over the next 10 years. However, any decision that involved release of 1-3 cohorts (8-24 birds) per year over the next 5 to 20 years, as well as decisions that involve skipping releases in every other year, performed better in our analysis than the alternative of no further releases. These results were driven by the relatively high objective weights that experts placed on the population objective (i.e., successful establishment of the FNMP) and the information gain objective (where releases are expected to accelerate learning on what was identified as a primary uncertainty: the demographic performance of wild-hatched birds). Additional considerations that were not formally integrated into the analysis are also discussed.

Florida↗

Thermal performance of the electron transport system Complex III in seven Alabama fishes

Management of fish populations for conservation in thermally variable systems requires an understanding of the fish's underlying physiology and responses to thermal stress. Physiological research at the organismal level provides information on the overall effects of stressors such as extreme temperature fluctuations. While experiments with whole organisms provide information as to the overall effects of temperature fluctuations, biochemical assays of thermal stress provide direct results of exposure that are both sensitive and specific. Electron transport system (ETS; Complex III) assays quantify a rate-limiting step of respiratory enzymes. Parameters that can be estimated via this approach include optimum thermal temperature ( T opt ) and optimal breadth of thermal performance ( T breadth ), which can both be related to organismal-level temperature thresholds. We exposed enzymes of seven fish species (native fish chosen to represent a typical community in Alabama streams) to temperatures in the range 11–44°C. The resultant enzymatic thermal performance curves showed that T opt , the lower temperature for enzyme optimal thermal performance ( T low ), the upper temperature for enzyme optimal thermal performance ( T up ), and T breadth differed among species. Relationships between enzymatic activity and temperature for all fish followed a pattern of steadily increasing enzyme activity to T opt before gradually decreasing with increasing temperature. A comparison of our enzyme optimum and upper-temperature limit results versus published critical thermal maxima values supports that ETS Complex III assays may be useful for assessing organismal-level thermal tolerance.

JEZ-A: Ecological and Integrative Physiology↗

Developing a range-wide sampling framework for endangered species: A case study with light-footed Ridgway’s rail

Monitoring provides the foundation for evaluating recovery of endangered species, yet many species lack monitoring programs designed to integrate a species’ unique attributes, specific monitoring objectives, and principles of statistical sampling theory. We developed a framework for monitoring and assessment of endangered light-footed Ridgway’s rails ( Rallus obsoletus levipes ) across their U.S. range, relative to multi-scale recovery goals. We created spatially explicit sample units and a sampling frame covering all potential habitat to facilitate range-wide probability sampling, and also built a model of the call-broadcast process commonly used to survey marsh birds that included heterogeneity in availability for detection and conditional detectability for each bird during each survey. We used the model to simulate 96 sampling strategies that included different levels of replication, multiple approaches for sample allocation amongst strata, and both simple random and weighted probability sampling (i.e., weights proportional to local rail abundance) of sample units within strata. Effective monitoring surveyed ≥20–30% of the sampling frame on ≥3 occasions, with weighted sample selection and more targeted sampling (50% of units) for strata that are key to species recovery. We also tested Bayesian N-mixture models for estimating abundance and show that multiple models provide reasonable estimates. This work lays the foundation for statistical sampling and multi-scale population estimation for an endangered bird, and for refinement of abundance estimation models. Moreover, this work provides a replicable process for building customized and statistically defensible sampling frameworks to assess recovery of endangered species that can used for other sensitive species.

California↗

Living with uncertainty: Using multi-model large ensembles to assess emperor penguin extinction risk for the IUCN Red List

Improved methods for identifying species at risk are needed to strengthen climate change vulnerability assessments, as current estimates indicate that up to one million species face extinction due to environmental changes. Integrating multiple sources of uncertainty enhances the robustness of Red List of Threatened Species assessments, providing a more comprehensive understanding of species’ risks. We present a comprehensive framework that incorporates uncertainties, including measurement error, structural uncertainty, natural variability, future climate emissions scenario, and extreme events of sea ice loss, to evaluate the extinction risk of the emperor penguin ( Aptenodytes forsteri ), currently classified as Near-Threatened. We apply three ecological models, one bioclimatic and two metapopulation models, combined with a multi-model large ensemble (MMLE) of climate projections from general circulation models, to conduct a Red List evaluation at both global, regional and colony levels. Our results show that emperor penguins could be classified under a range of Red List categories depending on the ecological model, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) climate emissions scenario, and extreme event frequency. Under Criterion A, global classifications vary from Vulnerable to Critically Endangered. Severe declines are projected in the Indian and East Pacific sectors, Dronning Maud Land and the Amundsen-Bellingshausen Sea, with Criterion E indicating that 24% to 100% of colonies meet Endangered status thresholds, depending on huddling thresholds and ecological models. This study represents the first application of an MMLE coupled with an ecological ensemble approach to project climate change impacts on a species, capturing a comprehensive range of uncertainties and offering a framework for improving forecasting and decision-making under climate change.

Biological Conservation↗

Drilling and geophysical logs of the tophole at an oil-and-gas well site, Central Venango County, Pennsylvania

In a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Pennsylvania Department of Conservation and Natural Resources, Bureau of Topographic and Geologic Survey, drilling and geophysical logs were used to characterize the geohydrologic framework and the freshwater and saline-water zones penetrated by the tophole at an oil-and-gas well site in central Venango County, Pennsylvania. The geohydrologic setting of the well site is typical of the dissected Appalachian Plateau underlain by Pennsylvanian and Mississippian sandstone and shale. The drilling, gamma, and acoustic-televiewer logs collected from the 575-foot deep tophole define the penetrated Pennsylvanian and Mississippian stratigraphic units and their lithology. The caliper, video, and acoustic-televiewer logs delineate multiple bedding-related and high-angle fractures in the lower Pottsville Group and Shenango Formation from 22 to 249 feet below land surface. The caliper and acoustic-televiewer logs indicate a sparsity of fractures below 249 feet below land surface in the lowermost Shenango Formation, Cuyahoga Group, Corry Sandstone, “Drake Well” formation, and upper Riceville Formation. About half of the blown yield during drilling of the tophole was from fractures in the upper Shenango Formation between 80 and 167 feet below land surface and the other half from fractures in the lower Shenango between 190 and 249 feet below land surface. Following drilling, fractures above the water level at about 145 feet below land surface produced freshwater with a specific conductance of less than 150 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius that cascaded down the hole. As indicated by the fluid resistivity and temperature logs, most of the downflow exited the hole at the water-bearing fractures at 249 feet below land surface. The downward flow in the tophole reflects the downward hydraulic gradient between the water-bearing fractures above the water level and those at 249 feet below land surface. Low conductivity and high resistivity values on the dual induction logs indicate freshwater above 285 feet below land surface in the Shenango sandstones, which is consistent with a specific conductance of blown yield of 400 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius at 200 feet below land surface. High conductivity and low resistivity values on the induction logs indicate the presence of saline water below 450 feet in the Corry Sandstone. The highest specific conductance of the blown yield, 1,200 microsiemens per centimeter at 25 degrees Celsius, was measured at 480 feet below land surface following penetration of the Corry Sandstone. Collection and integrated analysis of drilling and geophysical logs provided an efficient and effective means for characterizing the geohydrologic framework and conditions penetrated by the tophole at the selected oil-and-gas well site. The logging methods and lessons learned at this well site could be applied at other oil-and-gas drilling sites to better characterize the shallow subsurface with the overall goal of protecting freshwater aquifers during hydrocarbon development.

Pennsylvania↗

User guide for the farm process (FMP1) for the U.S. Geological Survey's modular three-dimensional finite-difference ground-water flow model, MODFLOW-2000

There is a need to estimate dynamically integrated supply-and-demand components of irrigated agriculture as part of the simulation of surface-water and ground-water flow. To meet this need, a computer program called the Farm Process (FMP1) was developed for the U.S. Geological Survey three-dimensional finite-difference modular ground-water flow model, MODFLOW- 2000 (MF2K). The FMP1 allows MF2K users to simulate conjunctive use of surface- and ground water for irrigated agriculture for historical and future simulations, water-rights issues and operational decisions, nondrought and drought scenarios. By dynamically integrating farm delivery requirement, surface- and ground-water delivery, as well as irrigation-return flow, the FMP1 allows for the estimation of supplemental well pumpage. While farm delivery requirement and irrigation return flow are simulated by the FMP1, the surface-water delivery to the farm can be simulated optionally by coupling the FMP1 with the Streamflow Routing Package (SFR1) and the farm well pumping can be simulated optionally by coupling the FMP1 to the Multi-Node Well (MNW) Package. In addition, semi-routed deliveries can be specified that are associated with points of diversion in the SFR1 stream network. Nonrouted surface-water deliveries can be specified independently of any stream network. The FMP1 maintains a dual mass balance of a farm budget and as part of the ground-water budget. Irrigation demand, supply, and return flow are in part subject to head-dependent sources and sinks such as evapotranspiration from ground water and leakage between the conveyance system and the aquifer. Farm well discharge and farm net recharge are source/sink terms in the FMP1, which depend on transpiration uptake from ground water and other head dependent consumptive use components. For heads rising above the bottom of the root zone, the actual transpiration is taken to vary proportionally with the depth of the active root zone, which can be restricted by anoxia or wilting. Depths corresponding to anoxia- or wilting-related pressure heads within the root zone are found using analytical solutions of a vertical pseudo steady-state pressure- head distribution over the depth of the total root zone (Consumptive Use Concept 1). Alternatively, a simpler, conceptual model is available, which defines how consumptive use (CU) components vary with changing head (CU Concept 2). Subtracting the ground water and precipitation transpiration components from the total transpiration yields a transpiratory irrigation requirement for each cell. The total farm delivery requirement (TFDR) then is determined as cumulative transpiratory and evaporative irrigation requirements of all farm cells and increased sufficiently to compensate for inefficient use from irrigation with respect to plant consumption. The TFDR subsequently is satisfied with surface- and ground-water delivery, respectively constrained by allotments, water rights, or maximum capacities. Five economic and noneconomic drought response policies can be applied optionally, if the potential supply of surface water and ground water is insufficient to meet the crop demand: acreage-optimization with or without a water conservation pool, deficit irrigation with or without water-stacking, and zero policy.

Techniques and Methods↗

A draft decision framework for the National Park Service Interior Region 5 bison stewardship strategy

The Department of the Interior Bison Conservation Initiative calls for its bureaus to plan and implement collaborative American bison conservation and to ensure involvement by tribal, state, and local governments and the public in that conservation. Four independently managed and geographically separated National Park Service (NPS) units in Interior Region 5 (IR5) preserve bison and other components of a formerly contiguous Great Plains landscape. Management of bison in IR5 parks has historically been specific to each park, and livestock and range management science informed much of the decision making. In the past two decades, NPS has shifted away from managing bison from this livestock-based perspective towards a wildlife stewardship approach, including ensuring their long-term adaptive potential and considering them as just one part of a complex ecosystem. This shift requires a more holistic and cooperative approach to stewardship that is challenging not only because of limitations in funding and fluctuations in leadership priorities, but also because of the constraints imposed by the parks’ relatively small, fenced areas. The IR5 NPS Bison Stewardship Strategy (“Strategy”) will help the NPS to meet its responsibilities in cooperative stewardship of bison. The Strategy will serve to organize and consolidate the NPS’s legal and policy responsibilities within a framework of collectively defined values and objectives to support the careful and transparent decision-making processes that both guide and transcend park-specific planning. This report describes a preliminary decision framework for the Strategy, including the context, the fundamental objectives, and a range of alternative strategies developed and considered through two workshops and a series of conference calls with NPS personnel, stakeholders, and outside experts with an interest in IR5 NPS bison stewardship. Although not the Strategy itself, this framework serves as the Strategy’s starting point and identifies 14 fundamental objectives, falling in four major themes: Persistence of Wild and Healthy Bison 1. Maximize the long-term persistence of bison in IR5 parks 2. Maximize the long-term adaptive capacity of bison in North America 3. Maximize the wildness of the bison herds 4. Maximize humane treatment of bison, while allowing natural processes to occur Supporting Tribal Buffalo Culture 5. Improve relationships, trust, and communication with Tribes to enhance shared stewardship of bison within and beyond IR5 6. Maximize the number of live, healthy bison that can be transferred to tribal herds Persistence of Native Ecological Communities and Processes 7. Maximize structural and compositional heterogeneity of native prairie plant communities across space and time within each park 8. Maximize the abundance and diversity of animal species of special concern 9. Minimize the loss of native grassland within each park 10. Minimize the abundance of exotic plants in the park landscape 11. Maximize riparian area and wetland integrity Public Outreach 12. Maximize the number of healthy, wild bison that are visible to the public 13. Maximize the safety of visitors 14. Maximize public understanding of the past, present, and future of bison and Native Americans in the Great Plains The terms “minimize” and “maximize” in these objectives describe the desired direction for each individual objective. Finding the right balance among these objectives and any others identified in further work is one of the central challenges in developing the Strategy. To that end, this report also demonstrates and describes potential methods for evaluating how well alternative strategies would achieve each of the fundamental objectives.

Natural Resource Report↗

Evaluation of sensors for continuous monitoring of harmful algal blooms in the Finger Lakes region, New York, 2019 and 2020

In response to the increasing frequency of cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms (CyanoHABs) in the Finger Lakes region of New York State, a pilot study by the U.S. Geological Survey, in collaboration with the New York State Department of Environmental Conservation, was conducted to enhance CyanoHAB monitoring and understanding. High-frequency sensors were deployed on open water monitoring-station platforms at Seneca Lake in 2019–20, at Owasco Lake in 2019–20, and at Skaneateles Lake in 2019. One of the goals of this study was to evaluate the ability of in-place sensors to make representative measurements of dissolved organic matter, nutrients, and algal pigments (as indicators of phytoplankton biomass) while collecting routine field parameters (water temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, weather, and light) to provide additional information about environmental conditions. Despite challenges like power issues and sensor fouling, the sensors performed well overall. However, correlation analyses between sensor readings and laboratory measurements revealed variable performance. Results indicate the relation between the fluorescent dissolved organic matter sensor and laboratory-measured dissolved organic carbon was weak at all study lakes. The nitrate sensors can be sensitive to ambient temperature and have a substantial power requirement, and the relation between sensor- and laboratory-measured nitrate values differed among lakes. The orthophosphate sensors, which were complex and prone to data loss, yielded results that were difficult to interpret because orthophosphate detections are rare in the study lakes. The multichannel fluorometer was also complex to use and required several unique procedures for its operation. Chlorophyll measurements from the fluorometers correlated moderately well with laboratory-measured chlorophyll- a , although relations with total phytoplankton biovolume were weaker. Relations between phycocyanin concentration measurements from the dual-channel fluorometers and cyanobacterial biovolume were not significant; however, the cyanobacterial biovolume correlation was moderately strong with chlorophyll contribution from cyanobacteria measurements from the multichannel fluorometer. Of all collected parameters, water temperature was among the strongest correlated with chlorophyll- a , total phytoplankton biovolume, and cyanobacterial biovolume. Stepwise regression analysis was used to identify the best parameters for modeling variance in laboratory measures of phytoplankton biomass. This analysis included factors such as chlorophyll fluorescence, pH, water temperature, and others, which varied by lake. Overall, the models had limited explanatory power for chlorophyll- a and other biovolumes, possibly due to the absence of CyanoHABs at the open-water monitoring locations. Multivariate models did not outperform simple fluorescence-based models. Notably, turbidity was a more significant indicator of cyanobacterial biovolume variability than phycocyanin from dual-channel fluorometers. The study concludes that while single and multivariate models based on sensor data are useful, they did not explain any more variance than fluorescence-based models. Broader data collection, including more CyanoHAB events, is necessary to refine these models. Integrating machine learning could leverage large, complex datasets to improve CyanoHAB predictions, thereby enhancing the management and understanding of these blooms.

New York↗

Status and threats analysis for the Florida manatee ( Trichechus manatus latirostris ), 2016

Trichechus manatus (West Indian manatee), especially T. m. latirostris , the Florida subspecies, has been the focus of conservation efforts and extensive research since its listing under the Endangered Species Act of 1973. To determine the status of, and severity of threats to, the Florida manatee, a comprehensive revision and update of the manatee Core Biological Model was completed and used to perform a population viability analysis for the Florida manatee. The probability of the Florida manatee population falling below 500 adults on either the Gulf or East coast within the next 100 years was estimated to be 0.42 percent. This risk of quasi-extinction is low because the estimated adult survival rates are high, the current population size is greater than 2,500 on each coast, and the estimated carrying capacity for manatees is much larger than the current abundance estimates in all four regions of Florida. Three threats contribute in roughly equal measures to the risk of quasi-extinction: watercraft-related mortality, red-tide mortality, and loss of warm-water habitat. Only an increase in watercraft-related mortality has the potential to substantially increase the risk of quasi-extinction at the statewide or coastal level. Expected losses of warm-water habitat are likely to cause a major change in the distribution of the population from the regions where manatees rely heavily on power plant effluents for warmth in winter (Southwest and Atlantic regions) to the regions where manatees primarily use natural springs in winter (Northwest and Upper St. Johns regions). The chances are nearly 50 percent that manatee populations in the Southwest and Atlantic regions will decrease from their 2011 levels by at least 30 percent over the next century. A large number of scenarios were examined to explore the possible effects of potential emerging threats, and in most of them, the risk of quasi-extinction at the coastal scale within 100 years did not rise above 1 percent. The four exceptions are scenarios in which the rate of watercraft-related mortality increases, carrying capacity is only a fraction of the current estimates, a new chronic source of mortality emerges, or multiple threats emerge in concert. Even in these scenarios, however, the risk of falling below 500 adults on either the East coast or the Gulf coast within 100 years from 2011 is less than 10 percent. High adult survival provides the population with strong resilience to a variety of current and future threats. On the basis of these analyses, we conclude that if these threats continue to be managed effectively, manatees are likely to persist on both coasts of Florida and remain an integral part of the coastal Florida ecosystem through the 21st century. If vigilance in management is reduced, however, the scenarios in which manatees could face risk of decline become more likely.

Florida↗

Range-wide assessment of livestock grazing across the sagebrush biome

Domestic livestock grazing occurs in virtually all sagebrush habitats and is a prominent disturbance factor. By affecting habitat condition and trend, grazing influences the resources required by, and thus, the distribution and abundance of sagebrush-obligate wildlife species (for example, sage-grouse Centrocercus spp.). Yet, the risks that livestock grazing may pose to these species and their habitats are not always clear. Although livestock grazing intensity and associated habitat condition may be known in many places at the local level, we have not yet been able to answer questions about use, condition, and trend at the landscape scale or at the range-wide scale for wildlife species. A great deal of information about grazing use, management regimes, and ecological condition exists at the local level (for individual livestock management units) under the oversight of organizations such as the Bureau of Land Management (BLM). However, the extent, quality, and types of existing data are unknown, which hinders the compilation, mapping, or analysis of these data. Once compiled, these data may be helpful for drawing conclusions about rangeland status, and we may be able to identify relationships between those data and wildlife habitat at the landscape scale. The overall objective of our study was to perform a range-wide assessment of livestock grazing effects (and the relevant supporting data) in sagebrush ecosystems managed by the BLM. Our assessments and analyses focused primarily on local-level management and data collected at the scale of BLM grazing allotments (that is, individual livestock management units). Specific objectives included the following: 1. Identify and refine existing range-wide datasets to be used for analyses of livestock grazing effects on sagebrush ecosystems. 2. Assess the extent, quality, and types of livestock grazing-related natural resource data collected by BLM range-wide (i.e., across allotments, districts and regions). 3. Compile and synthesize recommendations from federal and university rangeland science experts about how BLM might prioritize collection of different types of livestock grazing-related natural resource data. 4. Investigate whether range-wide datasets (Objective 1) could be used in conjunction with remotely sensed imagery to identify across broad scales (a) allotments potentially not meeting BLM Land Health Standards (LHS) and (b) allotments in which unmet standards might be attributable to livestock grazing. Objective 1: We identified four datasets that potentially could be used for analyses of livestock grazing effects on sagebrush ecosystems. First, we obtained the most current spatial data (typically up to 2007, 2008, or 2009) for all BLM allotments and compiled data into a coarse, topologically enforced dataset that delineated grazing allotment boundaries. Second, we obtained LHS evaluation data (as of 2007) for all allotments across all districts and regions; these data included date of most recent evaluation, BLM determinations of whether region-specific standards were met, and whether BLM deemed livestock to have contributed to any unmet standards. Third, we examined grazing records of three types: Actual Use (permittee-reported), Billed Use (BLM-reported), and Permitted Use (legally authorized). Finally, we explored the possibility of using existing Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) Ecological Site Description (ESD) data to make up-to-date estimates of production and forage availability on BLM allotments. Objective 2: We investigated the availability of BLM livestock grazing-related monitoring data and the status of LHS across 310 randomly selected allotments in 13 BLM field offices. We found that, relative to other data types, the most commonly available monitoring data were Actual Use numbers (permittee-reported livestock numbers and season-of-use), followed by Photo Point, forage Utilization, and finally, Vegetation Trend measurement data. Data availability and frequency of data collection varied across allotments and field offices. Analysis of the BLM's LHS data indicated 67 percent of allotments analyzed were meeting standards. For those not meeting standards, livestock were considered the causal factor in 45 percent of cases (about 15 percent of all allotments). Objective 3: We sought input from 42 university and federal rangeland science experts about how best to prioritize rangeland monitoring activities associated with ascertaining livestock impacts on vegetation resources. When we presented a hypothetical scenario to these scientists and asked them to prioritize monitoring activities, the most common response was to measure ground and vegetation cover, a variable that in many cases (10 of 13 field offices sampled) BLM had already identified as a monitoring priority. Experts identified several other traditional (for example, photo points) and emerging approaches (for example, high-resolution aerial photography) to monitoring. Objective 4: We used spatial allotment data (described in Objective 1) and remotely sensed vegetation data (sagebrush cover, herbaceous vegetation cover, litter and bare soil) to assess differences in allotment LHS status ("Not met" vs. "Met"; if "Not met" - livestock-caused vs. not). We then developed logistic regression models, using vegetation variables to predict LHS status of BLM allotments in sagebrush steppe habitats in Wyoming and portions of Montana and Colorado. In general, we found that more consistent data collection at the local level might improve suitability of data for broad-scale analyses of livestock impacts. As is, data collection methodologies varied across field offices and States, and we did not find any local-level monitoring data (Actual Use, Utilization, Vegetation Trend) that had been collected consistently enough over time or space for range-wide analyses. Moreover, continued and improved emphasis on monitoring also may aid local management decisions, particularly with respect to effects of livestock grazing. Rangeland science experts identified ground cover as a high monitoring priority for assessing range condition and emphasized the importance of tracking livestock numbers and grazing dates. Ultimately, the most effective monitoring program may entail both increased data collection effort and the integration of alternative monitoring approaches (for example, remote sensing or monitoring teams). In the course of our study, we identified three additional datasets that could potentially be used for range-wide analyses: spatial allotment boundary data for all BLM allotments range-wide, LHS evaluations of BLM allotments, and livestock use data (livestock numbers and grazing dates). It may be possible to use these spatial datasets to help prioritize monitoring activities over the extensive land areas managed by BLM. We present an example of how we used spatial allotment boundary data and LHS data to test whether remotely sensed vegetation characteristics could be used to predict which allotments met or did not meet LHS. This approach may be further improved by the results of current efforts by BLM to test whether more intensive (higher resolution) LHS assessments more accurately describe land health status. Standardized data collection in more ecologically meaningful land units may improve our ability to use local-level data for broad-scale analyses.

Open-File Report↗

Stable isotope comparison between mantle and foot tissues of two freshwater unionids: Implications for food web studies

Unionid mussels are a key taxon for stable isotope studies of aquatic food webs, often serving as the primary integrator of the pelagic baseline. Past isotope studies with mussels have commonly used either foot tissue or mantle tissue, but no study has yet to quantify the relation of both carbon and nitrogen isotopes between these two tissue sources. This makes it difficult to justify cross-study comparisons when different tissue compartments and different species were used as the basis of food web models. Therefore, we collected foot and mantle tissues from two common mussel species, Amblema plicata and Fusconaia flava , from lotic and lentic sites in the Upper Mississippi and St. Croix rivers (Minnesota/Wisconsin). Paired tissue samples from each individual were analyzed for stable isotopes of nitrogen and carbon. There were strong relations between tissue types for both isotopes between species ( r 2 > 0.93). Paired t -tests indicated that there were statistically significant differences between the tissue sources in some instances, but the difference (0.04–0.21‰) was less than the analytical precision of the mass spectrometer (circa 0.2–0.3‰). We conclude that the isotopic values from these two tissue sources are biologically comparable and recommend that researchers use the tissue source and extraction technique that minimizes stress to the mussels. We also tested for significant differences between species within a site for either isotope or tissue type and found no statistically significant difference between species with the exception of carbon in foot tissue at two sites. The highly correlated isotopic response supports the interchangeable use of both tissue compartments and both species. These findings support comparisons between studies whether the results were based on either of these tissues or the two species studied. Comparability will also simplify sampling designs, save time, and save money for processing samples without diminishing the usefulness of the data.

Minnesota, Wisconsin↗