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Use and interpretation of climate envelope models: a practical guide

This guidebook is intended to provide a practical overview of climate envelope modeling for conservation professionals and natural resource managers. The material is intended for people with little background or experience in climate envelope modeling who want to better understand and interpret models developed by others and the results generated by such models, or want to do some modeling themselves. This is not an exhaustive review of climate envelope modeling, but rather a brief introduction to some key concepts in the discipline. Readers interested in a more in-depth treatment of much of the material presented here are referred to an excellent book, Mapping Species Distributions: Spatial Inference and Prediction by Janet Franklin. Also, a recent review (Araújo & Peterson 2012) provides an excellent, though more technical, discussion of many of the issues dealt with here. Here we treat selected topics from a practical perspective, using minimal jargon to explain and illustrate some of the many issues that one has to be aware of when using climate envelope models. When we do introduce specialized terminology in the guidebook, we bold the term when it is first used; a glossary of these terms is included at the back of the guidebook.

Report↗

Investigating global change, environmental response, and adaptation: Jill Baron's 30 years as an ecosystem ecologist

Three decades of research, 145 publications (including two books), 15 graduate students, leadership in scientific organizations, invited talks around the world, and two collaborative entities that facilitate scientific synthesis—it’s a lot to pack into one career. But USGS research ecologist and Colorado State University senior scientist Jill Baron isn’t finished yet.

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Computing time-series suspended-sediment concentrations and loads from in-stream turbidity-sensor and streamflow data

Over the last decade, use of a method for computing suspended-sediment concentration and loads using turbidity sensors—primarily nephelometry, but also optical backscatter—has proliferated. Because an in- itu turbidity sensor is capa le of measuring turbidity instantaneously, a turbidity time series can be recorded and related directly to time-varying suspended-sediment concentrations. Depending on the suspended-sediment characteristics of the measurement site, this method can be more reliable and, in many cases, a more accurate means for computing suspended-sediment concentrations and loads than traditional U.S. Geological Survey computational methods. Guidelines and procedures for estimating time s ries of suspended-sediment concentration and loading as a function of turbidity and streamflow data have been published in a U.S. Geological Survey Techniques and Methods Report, Book 3, Chapter C4. This paper is a summary of these guidelines and discusses some of the concepts, s atistical procedures, and techniques used to maintain a multiyear suspended sediment time series.

Conference Paper↗

The Pajarito Plateau: A bibliography

This bibliography is the result of two initially independent projects. As the consulting archaeologist at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Charlie R. Steen collected entries at the suggestion of the staff of the Environmental Surveillance Group of the Health, Safety, and Environmental Division, HSE-8. The primary purpose was to aid the staff in evaluating cultural resources on LANL lands. In addition to works that related to the archaeology and history of the area, Steen included notations of a few books and articles in other fields such as geology and natural history. It was hoped that they also would be of value to other organizations and to students of past human activities on the Pajarito Plateau. At the same time, the National Park Service (NPS) was planning a major survey of Bandelier National Monument (BNM). As part of this plan, the author was asked to prepare a background document that described research previously carried out in the area, including an annotated bibliography. Although the survey would be limited to the park boundaries, the larger Pajarito Plateau is a more logical study area from physiographic, environmental, and cultural perspectives; hence the focus was on this larger region. Mathien (1986) also included some references to natural resources studies, particularly those initiated by NPS within Bandelier National Monument. Both bibliographies were made available to Colleen Olinger and Beverly Larson of the Health and Environmental Services Group at Los Alamos. They realized that while neither was complete, each included entries missing from the other. Larson suggested the two bibliographies be combined. (At this time, Craig Allen was studying the landscape of the Jemez Mountains [Allen 1984c, 1989]. His investigations included much detailed information on natural resource studies and were added in 1991 and 1992.) To limit the scope of their work, Steen and Mathien had chosen their parameter: the Pajarito Plateau. Geographically, the Pajarito Plateau is described as the high tableland that lies between the Jemez Mountains on the west and the Rio Grande on the east. From north to south, it extends from the Chama Valley to La Cañada de Cochiti (Hewett 1906:14)(Figure 1). Because human activity rarely stops at such definite boundaries, major ethnographic studies of Tewa (San Ildefonso and Santa Clara) and Keres (Cochiti) linguistic groups are included. (Even though most of the historic pueblos occupied by the Tewa and Keres are not located on the Pajarito Plateau, oral traditions and archaeological data suggest that these groups once occupied sites on the plateau.) Towa studies are not included because Steen believed Towa ancestors were not involved in major cultural developments of the Pajarito Plateau. In addition, a bibliography of the Jemez area (home of Towa people) has been prepared by Michael Elliott (1982) and included with his nomination of large Pueblo sites near Jemez Springs to the National Register of Historic Places that is on file at the Museum of New Mexico, Laboratory of Anthropology, in Santa Fe. Both Steen and Mathien included references to geographically and historically related material that does not focus on the Pajarito Plateau but, nonetheless, is important to understanding the area's archaeology and physical environment, for example, lithic resources available from Cerro Pedernal or in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains.

New Mexico↗

A typical cross section based on magnetic data of lower and middle Keweenawan volcanic rocks, Ironwood area, Michigan

A north-trending aeromagnetic profile of a sequence of east-striking Keweenawan volcanic rocks near Ironwood, Mich., can be matched to a calculated profile over a model consisting of a series of dipping layers. (The dips were those measured by H. A. Hubbard along the north-trending valley of the Black River.) Remanent and induced magnetizations of 39 oriented cores from the Black River valley were determined by K. G. Books; felsite from Chippewa Hill and basalt from Algonquin Falls of middle Keweenawan age have normal Keweenawan magnetization and lower Keweenawan Powder Mill rocks have reverse magnetization. In the model these magetizations were assigned to 26 layers which alternated with very weakly magnetized layers. The best match of the calculated composite anomalies of remanent and induced magnetization and the aeromagnetic profile occurs if a deeper block of steeply dipping Powder Mill rocks is assumed to underlie the middle Keweenawan flows.

Michigan↗

The fellow speaks: Sometimes you get only one chance

I am grateful to AGU for selecting me as one of the five recipient of the 2014 Ambassador Award, which also includes election as a Union Fellow. I thank my colleague Steve Ingebritsen for nominating me. As Steve’s citation mentions my work on the Deepwater Horizon oil spill response, I would like to reflect on this experience. The Deepwater Horizon oil spill is well documented in the report of the National Commission on the BP Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Offshore Drilling (2011). Washington Post writer John Achenbach’s (2011) book gives a behind-the-scene portrayal of the crisis and explains oil drilling technology in layman’s terms. A special feature in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (v. 109, no. 50, December 11, 2012) presents 4 perspectives and 11 research articles on “Science Applications in the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill.” Here, I will simply share my personal perspective.

AGU Hydrology Section Newsletter↗

Inside active volcanoes; an exhibit on the move!

All of us are aware of the emphasis currently being placed in the United States on science education and public understanding of science. Most of this emphasis is directed toward mass audiences through book publications, school curricula, and television programs; sadly, most of it deals with non-earth science topics. In an effort to take advantage of this awakened consciousness and to highlight the earth sciences, the Smithsonian Institution and the U.S Geological Survey joined forces to prepare a traveling exhibit on volcanoes that is currently touring the country. This note will serve to bring you up to date on the progress of this exhibit as it reaches the mid-point of its tour.

Earthquakes & Volcanoes (USGS)↗

Charles F. Richter; an interview

Charles F. Richter, renowned seismologist, is a professor emeritus at the California Institue of techonology (Caltech). He is best known to the public for the Richter magnitude scale; but he is equally recognized in the scientific community for many other contributions to seismology including his books Elementary Seismology (1958) and Seismicity of the Earth (coauthored in 1954 with Beno Gutenberg).

Earthquake Information Bulletin (USGS)↗

Gilbert White talks about natural hazards

Dr. Gilbert White is Director of the Institute of Behavioral Science at the University of Colorado, Boulder, where he is responsible for natural Hazards Research and Applications Information Center supported by the National Science Foundation. He served in the Executive Office of the president in 1941-42, on the Federal Flood Control Policy Task Force in 1964-65, and on the U.S Geological Survey Advisory Panel on Earthquake Studies. Dr. White has authored five books on the social and economic aspects of natural resources, including water supply and river development, and on floods and other natural hazards.

Earthquake Information Bulletin (USGS)↗

Using GIS and Google Earth for the creation of the Going-to-the-Sun Road Avalanche Atlas, Glacier National Park, Montana, USA

Snow avalanche paths are key geomorphologic features in Glacier National Park, Montana, and an important component of mountain ecosystems: they are isolated within a larger ecosystem, they are continuously disturbed, and they contain unique physical characteristics (Malanson and Butler, 1984). Avalanches impact subalpine forest structure and function, as well as overall biodiversity (Bebi et al., 2009). Because avalanches are dynamic phenomena, avalanche path geometry and spatial extent depend upon climatic regimes. The USGS/GNP Avalanche Program formally began in 2003 as an avalanche forecasting program for the spring opening of the ever-popular Going-to-the-Sun Road (GTSR), which crosses through 37 identified avalanche paths. Avalanche safety and forecasting is a necessary part of the GTSR spring opening procedures. An avalanche atlas detailing topographic parameters and oblique photographs was completed for the GTSR corridor in response to a request from GNP personnel for planning and resource management. Using ArcMap 9.2 GIS software, polygons were created for every avalanche path affecting the GTSR using aerial imagery, field-based observations, and GPS measurements of sub-meter accuracy. Spatial attributes for each path were derived within the GIS. Resulting products include an avalanche atlas book for operational use, a geoPDF of the atlas, and a Google Earth flyover illustrating each path and associated photographs. The avalanche atlas aids park management in worker safety, infrastructure planning, and natural resource protection by identifying avalanche path patterns and location. The atlas was created for operational and planning purposes and is also used as a foundation for research such as avalanche ecology projects and avalanche path runout modeling.

Conference Paper↗

Future for polar bears in a declining sea ice environment: What do we know?

During an April 22, 2006, interview on the CBC radio program “The House,” Tim Flannery, author of the recent book “The Weathermakers,” stated, “Projections of the polar bear specialists are that by about 2030, around that date, the species will be extinct because of global warming induced changes in the Arctic sea ice.” That statement was followed on May 4th by quotations in the Toronto Globe and Mail from Dr. Mitch Taylor, a polar bear researcher in Nunavut, Canada, claiming, “polar bears have survived both warmer times and colder times than these,” that “nothing has melted the Arctic sea ice for 30 million years,” that “polar bears are remarkably adaptable,” and that “a warming climate might even benefit polar bears.”

Conference Paper↗

The bear that never was

From campfire stories to sensational books detailing gory attacks, Alaska's bears have long been maligned as deadly marauders capable of acquiring a taste for human flesh. Tall tales make for good storytelling but force bad reputations on the bears. When myth is compared to fact, the three North American's leading bear experts show that Alaska's three bear species are not the huge, unpredictable monsters they often are made out to be. Here, Smith, Amstrup, and Herrero examine the conventional wisdom people often hear regarding bears in the Great Land.

Alaska↗

Volcanic hazards in Central America

This volume is a sampling of current scientific work about volcanoes in Central America with specific application to hazards. The papers reflect a variety of international and interdisciplinary collaborations and employ new methods. The book will be of interest to a broad cross section of scientists, especially volcanologists. The volume also will interest students who aspire to work in the field of volcano hazards mitigation or who may want to work in one of Earth’s most volcanically active areas.

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Conversations on ecology IV

The conversations on ecology have mentioned the pesticide problem, and in such discussion it is easy to lose sight of the basic philosophic view which is an undercurrent in Miss Carson's book. I should like to expand on that philosophic premise and examine some of its implications for planning vegetation management measures as well as other measures for resource development.

The Garden Journal: Journal of the New York Botani↗

Taricha torosa torosa (Coast Range Newt): Overwintering larvae

We present observations of overwintering behavior in Taricha torosa torosa larvae at two independent sites. We define overwintering larvae as newts that spend the entire winter season in the larval form. The winter season (December, January, and February) represents the average three coldest months for the southern California coastal region (Felton 1965. California’s Many Climates. Pacific Books. 169 pp.).

Herpetological Review↗

Benthic habitats and the effects of fishing: Linking geology, biology, socioeconomics, and management in fisheries: An introduction

Fishery resource managers face the challenge of ensuring sustainable fisheries and maintaining healthy, diverse ecosystems. This challenge can be met by advancing the scientific knowledge available to resource managers to evaluate and appropriately manage fishing activities that affect benthic habitats. Government agencies have been working to develop benthic habitat research initiatives focused on the effects of fishing gear and the linkage between biological resources and the geology of benthic habitats. This book provides the broad understanding of the effects of fishing activities on benthic habitats necessary to address the pressing issues of habitat alteration that challenge managers, practitioners, and ocean scientists.

Conference Paper↗

Foreign literature and translations in earth science

More than 50 percent of the total abstracted geologic literature is in Russian, followed by English at about 30 percent, and French, German, and Japanese from about 8 to 2 percent. Communist Chinese publications ceased as a result of the Cultural Revolution and have not resumed. Less than 2 percent of American earth scientists read and use Russian literature in the original to any significant extent. About 30 percent know some French, German, and Spanish, but only a much smaller proportion uses these languages in practice. The most important sources of knowledge about foreign work are translation journals, almost exclusively from Russian, and foreign scientists who write in American and international journals. Less than 0.5 percent of Russian earth science books are translated or known in the United States. Scientific provincialism is strong and increasing in the United States, owing to or demonstrated by the publications explosion and squeeze on libraries and scientists, weakening or abandonment of language requirements in universities, and cessation of all broad earth science abstracting services in English. Suggestions for improving communication of foreign literature include earlier exposure to languages in schools and stress on critical use rather than perfunctory examinations. A "critical mass" of linguistically competent and active scientists is necessary to find the important, not merely important-sounding, titles in the literature morass and introduce them into widely read earth science media.

Conference Paper↗

Climate change science and modeling

This chapter provides a brief background on climate change science, climate simulation models, and models that project the impacts of changes in climate on tree species and ecosystems. Throughout the chapter, boxes list resources for more information on each topic. A more detailed scientific review of climate change science, trends, and modeling can be found in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC 2014), and the Fourth National Climate Assessment (U.S. Global Climate Research Program [USGCRP] 2017).

Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylv↗