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USGS2019

Sulfur contamination in the Everglades, a major control on mercury methylation

In this chapter sulfur contamination of the Everglades and its role as a major control on methylmercury (MeHg) production is examined. Sulfate concentrations over large portions of the Everglades (60% of the ecosystem) are elevated or greatly elevated compared to background conditions of <1 mg/L. Land and water management practices in south Florida are the primary reason for the high levels of sulfate loading to the Everglades. Marshes in the northern Everglades that are highly enriched in sulfate have average concentrations of 60 mg/L, but water in canals in the Everglades Agricultural Area (EAA) contain the highest concentrations of sulfate averaging 60–70 mg/L. Studies that examined the mass balance of sulfur to the Everglades have determined that the primary sources of sulfate include: sulfur currently used in agriculture, and natural and legacy agricultural sulfur released by oxidation of organic soil within the EAA. The extensive loading of sulfate to the ecosystem increases microbial sulfate reduction, the dominant microbial process driving mercury methylation and MeHg production. The biogeochemical processes linking sulfate loading and MeHg production, however, are complex. MeHg production increases as sulfate levels rise from levels <1 mg/L up to about 20 mg/L. However, production of sulfide (a byproduct of microbial sulfate reduction) starts to inhibit MeHg production above 20 mg/L. Sulfate loading to canals in the EAA has impacted the northern Everglades the most, but the Everglades canal system can transport sulfate as far as Everglades National Park (ENP), 80 km further south. Plans to deliver more water to ENP as part of restoration may increase overall sulfate loads to the southern Everglades. Reduction of sulfate loading should be a major goal of Everglades restoration because of the many negative effects of sulfate on the ecosystem. The ecosystem has been shown to respond quickly to reductions in sulfate loading, and strategies for reducing sulfate loading may produce positive outcomes for the Everglades in the near-term. Strategies for reducing sulfate loading will need to include: best management practices for agricultural use of sulfate, approaches to minimize soil oxidation in the EAA, and modifications to stormwater treatment areas to improve sulfate retention.

Florida↗

USGS1985

Contaminant residues in fish and sediments from lakes in the Atchafalaya River Basin (Louisiana)

Conversion of bottomland hardwood forests ℴ agricultural land has reduced habitat and water quality in many lakes in the floodplain of the lower Mississippi River. The objectives of this study were to ascertain current contaminant residue concentrations in fish and sediment from lakes in the Atchafalaya River Basin and to determine the influence of overflow and agricultural land use on contaminant levels. Fish and sediment samples were collected from eight lakes that differed in overflow (no overflow, headwater overflow, backwater overflow) and land-use characteristics (presence or absence of agricultural land). Residue analysis of 24 sediment and 82 fish samples collected from the study lakes showed that contaminant residues were uniformly low. Total DDT concentrations, consisting mainly of DDE, were found in 98% of the fish samples and generally were the highest residues though they rarely exceeded 0.50 μg/g. Dieldrin, α-BHC and γ-BHC, in concentrations rarely exceeding 0.05 μg/g, were detected in about 50% of the fish samples. Total organochlorine pesticide and PCB residues were less than 2.00 μg/g in all fish from all lakes, except for a 3.46 μg/g total in spotted gar ( Lepisosteus oculatus ) from one lake. Sediments were free from pesticide residues except for occasional traces (0.01 μg/g) of α-BHC. Metal residue concentrations in fish and sediment samples were typical of uncontaminated areas. Lake systems in the Atchafalaya River Basin appeared to be relatively uncontaminated by agricultural pesticides, but metal and organic residues in fish were similar from lakes with the same land-use and overflow characteristics.

Louisiana↗

USGS2003

Assessing water quality at large geographic scales: Relations among land use, water physicochemistry, riparian condition, and fish community structure

Data collected from 172 sites in 20 major river basins between 1993 and 1995 as part of the US Geological Survey's National Water-Quality Assessment Program were analyzed to assess relations among basinwide land use (agriculture, forest, urban, range), water physicochemistry, riparian condition, and fish community structure. A multimetric approach was used to develop regionally referenced indices of fish community and riparian condition. Across large geographic areas, decreased riparian condition was associated with water-quality constituents indicative of nonpoint source inputs-total nitrogen and suspended sediment and basin-wide urban land use. Decreased fish community condition was associated with increases in total dissolved solids and rangeland use and decreases in riparian condition and agricultural land use. Fish community condition was relatively high even in areas where agricultural land use was relatively high (>50% of the basin). Although agricultural land use can have deleterious effects on fish communities, the results of this study suggest that other factors also may be important, including practices that regulate the delivery of nutrients, suspended sediments, and total dissolved solids into streams. Across large geographic scales, measures of water physicochemistry may be better indicators of fish community condition than basinwide land use. Whereas numerous studies have indicated that riparian restorations are successful in specific cases, this analysis suggests the universal importance of riparian zones to the maintenance and restoration of diverse fish communities in streams.

Environmental Management↗

USGS2023

Landscape-scale drivers of tayra abundance in the Ecuadorian Andes

Habitat conversion to agriculture and overexploitation of wildlife are the two largest drivers of biodiversity loss globally. Biodiversity loss is especially prevalent in areas undergoing rapid economic development at the expense of natural land cover as is the case across much of South America. Despite expected declines in wildlife populations associated with ongoing large-scale land conversions, for many species we lack sufficient data on key threats and drivers of abundance in order to inform appropriate management and conservation. Collecting data to estimate critical state variables such as abundance can be expensive, logistically challenging, and even implausible on spatial scales relevant to species management, especially for carnivores which are elusive and difficult to monitor. Here, we use detection-non-detection data collected using a structured camera trap survey repeated over two years in the Ecuadorian Andes to produce insights into the habitat associations and potential threats faced by the tayra, a medium-sized carnivore that despite being perceived to be relatively common in South America, remains largely understudied. We use hierarchical modelling to estimate an index of abundance for the tayra while accounting for imperfect detection. We demonstrate the tayra to be a lowland habitat generalist, with conversion of land to agriculture potentially benefitting this species in the short term, with increasing proportion of core agricultural land being associated with higher indices of abundance. However, we highlight that this state could potentially serve as an ecological trap in the long term. We provide evidence for negative impacts of human population density on tayra abundance. We hypothesize this relationship could be underpinned by conflict and subsequent persecution by humans, which is likely to be exacerbated in agricultural landscapes. These findings suggest that like many carnivores, the tayra may be able to adapt and even thrive in human modified landscapes given societal acceptance, thus, conservation strategies for the tayra that focus on fostering co-existence between humans and this medium-sized carnivore may contribute to its future.

Biodiversity and Conservation↗

USGS2010

Management intensity alters decomposition via biological pathways

Current conceptual models predict that changes in plant litter chemistry during decomposition are primarily regulated by both initial litter chemistry and the stage-or extent-of mass loss. Far less is known about how variations in decomposer community structure (e.g., resulting from different ecosystem management types) could influence litter chemistry during decomposition. Given the recent agricultural intensification occurring globally and the importance of litter chemistry in regulating soil organic matter storage, our objectives were to determine the potential effects of agricultural management on plant litter chemistry and decomposition rates, and to investigate possible links between ecosystem management, litter chemistry and decomposition, and decomposer community composition and activity. We measured decomposition rates, changes in litter chemistry, extracellular enzyme activity, microarthropod communities, and bacterial versus fungal relative abundance in replicated conventional-till, no-till, and old field agricultural sites for both corn and grass litter. After one growing season, litter decomposition under conventional-till was 20% greater than in old field communities. However, decomposition rates in no-till were not significantly different from those in old field or conventional-till sites. After decomposition, grass residue in both conventional- and no-till systems was enriched in total polysaccharides relative to initial litter, while grass litter decomposed in old fields was enriched in nitrogen-bearing compounds and lipids. These differences corresponded with differences in decomposer communities, which also exhibited strong responses to both litter and management type. Overall, our results indicate that agricultural intensification can increase litter decomposition rates, alter decomposer communities, and influence litter chemistry in ways that could have important and long-term effects on soil organic matter dynamics. We suggest that future efforts to more accurately predict soil carbon dynamics under different management regimes may need to explicitly consider how changes in litter chemistry during decomposition are influenced by the specific metabolic capabilities of the extant decomposer communities.

Biogeochemistry↗

USGS2012

Isotope geochemistry and fluxes of carbon and organic matter in tropical small mountainous river systems and adjacent coastal waters of the Caribbean

Recent studies have shown that small mountainous rivers (SMRs) may act as sources of aged and/or refractory carbon (C) to the coastal ocean, which may increase organic C burial at sea and subsidize coastal food webs and heterotrophy. However, the characteristics and spatial and temporal variability of C and organic matter (OM) exported from tropical SMR systems remain poorly constrained. To address this, the abundance and isotopic character (δ13C and Δ14C) of the three major C pools were measured in two Puerto Rico SMRs with catchments dominated by different land uses (agricultural vs. non-agricultural recovering forest). The abundance and character of C pools in associated estuaries and adjacent coastal waters were also examined. Riverine dissolved and particulate organic C (DOC and POC, respectively) concentrations were highly variable with respect to land use and sampling month, while dissolved inorganic C (DIC) was significantly higher at all times in the agricultural catchment. In both systems, riverine DOC and POC ranged from modern to highly aged (2,340 years before present), while DIC was always modern. The agricultural river and irrigation canals contained very old DOC (1,184 and 2,340 years before present, respectively), which is consistent with findings in temperate SMRs and indicates that these tropical SMRs provide a source of aged DOC to the ocean. During months of high river discharge, OM in estuarine and coastal waters had C isotope signatures reflective of direct terrestrial input, indicating that relatively unaltered OM is transported to the coastal ocean at these times. This is also consistent with findings in temperate SMRs and indicates that C transported to the coastal ocean by SMRs may differ from that of larger rivers because it is exported from smaller catchments that have steeper terrains and fewer land-use types.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2011

Factors affecting fish biodiversity in floodplain lakes of the Mississippi Alluvial Valley

River-floodplain ecosystems offer some of the most diverse and dynamic environments in the world. Accordingly, floodplain habitats harbor diverse fish assemblages. Fish biodiversity in floodplain lakes may be influenced by multiple variables operating on disparate scales, and these variables may exhibit a hierarchical organization depending on whether one variable governs another. In this study, we examined the interaction between primary variables descriptive of floodplain lake large-scale features, suites of secondary variables descriptive of water quality and primary productivity, and a set of tertiary variables descriptive of fish biodiversity across a range of floodplain lakes in the Mississippi Alluvial Valley of Mississippi and Arkansas (USA). Lakes varied considerably in their representation of primary, secondary, and tertiary variables. Multivariate direct gradient analyses indicated that lake maximum depth and the percentage of agricultural land surrounding a lake were the most important factors controlling variation in suites of secondary and tertiary variables, followed to a lesser extent by lake surface area. Fish biodiversity was generally greatest in large, deep lakes with lower proportions of watershed agricultural land. Our results may help foster a holistic approach to floodplain lake management and suggest the framework for a feedback model wherein primary variables can be manipulated for conservation and restoration purposes and secondary and tertiary variables can be used to monitor the success of such efforts.

Environmental Biology of Fishes↗

USGS2010

Factors Controlling Pre-Columbian and Early Historic Maize Productivity in the American Southwest, Part 2: The Chaco Halo, Mesa Verde, Pajarito Plateau/Bandelier, and Zuni Archaeological Regions

Chemical and nutrient analyses of 471 soil samples from 161 sites within four archaeological regions (Pajarito Plateau/Bandelier, Zuni, Mesa Verde, and the Chaco Halo) were combined with historical climate data in order to evaluate the agricultural productivity of each region. In addition, maize productivity and field-life calculations were performed using organic-nitrogen (N) values from the upper 50 cm of soil in each region and a range (1-3%/year) of N-mineralization rates. The endmember values of this range were assumed representative of dry and wet climate states. With respect to precipitation and heat, the Pajarito Plateau area has excellent agricultural potential; the agricultural potentials of the Zuni and Mesa Verde regions are good; and the agricultural potential of the Chaco Halo is poor. Calculations of N mineralization and field life indicate that Morfield Valley in Mesa Verde should be able to provide 10 bu/ac of maize for decades (without the addition of N) when organic N-mineralization rates exceed 2%. Productivity and field-life potential decrease in the following order: Zuni, Mesa Verde, Bandelier, Chaco Halo. The Chaco Halo is very unproductive; e. g., 10 bushels per acre can be achieved within the Halo only from soils having the highest organic N concentration (third quartile) and which undergo the highest rate (3%) of N mineralization. ?? 2010 US Government.

Journal of Archaeological Method and Theory↗

USGS2021

Wetland selection by female Ring-Necked Ducks (Aythya collaris) in the Southern Atlantic Flyway

On the wintering grounds, wetland selection by waterfowl is influenced by spatiotemporal resource distribution. The ring-necked duck (Aythya collaris) winters in the southeastern United States where a disproportionate amount of Atlantic Flyway ring-necked duck harvest occurs. We quantified female ring-necked duck selection for wetland characteristics during and after the 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 waterfowl hunting seasons using discrete choice modeling under a Bayesian framework. Relative probability of selection was primarily influenced by characteristics at the local wetland scale. Relative probability of selection was higher for flooded agriculture and vegetated wetlands than open water and was positively influenced by wetland area during the winter. After the hunting season, the relative probability of selection decreased for flooded agriculture but increased for vegetated wetlands, and the effect of wetland area decreased in magnitude. We attribute changes in selection during and after the hunting season to dietary shifts related to migratory preparation, resource depletion, and reproductive pairing. Understanding the wetland characteristics that wintering waterfowl select, and the spatial scale at which selection occurs, is important for informing effective wetland management and waterfowl harvest practices.

Florida, Georgia↗

USGS2023

Converting CRP grasslands to cropland, grazing land, or hayland: Effects on breeding bird abundances in the northern Great Plains of the United States

Recent declines of grassland bird populations in North America are linked to habitat loss and fragmentation associated with agricultural practices. One tool used to conserve soil, water and wildlife habitat on agricultural fields is the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), the largest agricultural conservation program in the United States. Managers and conservationists recognize CRP as an important component of conserving grassland birds in the central portion of the United States. However, recent widespread expiration of CRP contracts could negatively influence grassland bird populations. Few studies have evaluated how former CRP-enrolled fields may function as grassland bird habitat. In this paper, we analyzed data from a long-term (1990–2017) study aimed at comparing grassland bird abundance (24 species) between idled CRP grasslands and fields where the CRP contracts expired. Some of these fields where contracts expired were maintained as pasture or hayland, and others were converted back to cropland. Estimated abundances of most species were considerably higher in idled CRP than in fields with expired CRP contracts. Post-CRP land use also appeared to affect most bird abundances, with lower abundance in grazed grasslands and haylands relative to idled CRP, but higher abundance than cropland. The responses of obligate and facultative grassland specialists to post-CRP management varied among species, with some being negative and some being positive depending on post-CRP land use, which is unsurprising given the variable habitat requirements of grassland birds. Our results have implications for wildlife managers who must design conservation strategies around the land use decisions of private landowners. Our results support the idea of maintaining a mosaic of undisturbed CRP grasslands and post-CRP grasslands that are hayed or grazed, which should guarantee some undisturbed nesting cover in the landscape for some bird species and some disturbed grasslands that may have long-term benefits for other species.

Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2024

A framework for disaggregating remote-sensing cropland into rainfed and irrigated classes at continental scale

Agriculture consumes the largest share of freshwater globally; therefore, distinguishing between rainfed and irrigated croplands is essential for agricultural water management and food security. In this study, a framework incorporating the Budyko model was used to differentiate between rainfed and irrigated cropland areas in Africa for eight remote sensing landcover products and a high-confidence cropland map (HCCM). The HCCM was generated for calibration and validation of the crop partitioning framework as an alternative to individual cropland masks which exhibit high disagreement. The accuracy of the framework in partitioning the HCCM was evaluated using an independent validation dataset, yielding an overall accuracy rate of 73 %. The findings of this study indicate that out of the total area covered by the HCCM (2.36 million km 2 ), about 461,000 km 2 (19 %) is irrigated cropland. The partitioning framework was applied on eight landcover products, and the extent of irrigated areas varied between 19 % and 30 % of the total cropland area. The framework demonstrated high precision and specificity scores, indicating its effectiveness in correctly identifying irrigated areas while minimizing the misclassification of rainfed areas as irrigated. This study provides an enhanced understanding of rainfed and irrigation patterns across Africa, supporting efforts towards achieving sustainable and resilient agricultural systems. Consequently, the approach outlined expands on the suite of remote sensing landcover products that can be used for agricultural water studies in Africa by enabling the extraction of irrigated and rainfed cropland data from landcover products that do not have disaggregated cropland classes.

International Journal of Applied Earth Observation↗

USGS2008

Landscape complexity and soil moisture variation in south Georgia, USA, for remote sensing applications

This research addressed the temporal and spatial variation of soil moisture (SM) in a heterogeneous landscape. The research objective was to investigate soil moisture variation in eight homogeneous 30 by 30 m plots, similar to the pixel size of a Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) or Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+) image. The plots were adjacent to eight stations of an in situ soil moisture network operated by the United States Department of Agriculture-Agriculture Research Service USDA-ARS in Tifton, GA. We also studied five adjacent agricultural fields to examine the effect of different landuses/land covers (LULC) (grass, orchard, peanuts, cotton and bare soil) on the temporal and spatial variation of soil moisture. Soil moisture field data were collected on eight occasions throughout 2005 and January 2006 to establish comparisons within and among eight homogeneous plots. Consistently throughout time, analysis of variance (ANOVA) showed high variation in the soil moisture behavior among the plots and high homogeneity in the soil moisture behavior within them. A precipitation analysis for the eight sampling dates throughout the year 2005 showed similar rainfall conditions for the eight study plots. Therefore, soil moisture variation among locations was explained by in situ local conditions. Temporal stability geostatistical analysis showed that soil moisture has high temporal stability within the small plots and that a single point reading can be used to monitor soil moisture status for the plot within a maximum 3% volume/volume (v/v) soil moisture variation. Similarly, t-statistic analysis showed that soil moisture status in the upper soil layer changes within 24 h. We found statistical differences in the soil moisture between the different LULC in the agricultural fields as well as statistical differences between these fields and the adjacent 30 by 30 m plots. From this analysis, it was demonstrated that spatial proximity is not enough to produce similar soil moisture, since t-test's among adjacent plots with different LULCs showed significant differences. These results confirm that a remote sensing approach that considers homogeneous LULC landscape fragments can be used to identify landscape units of similar soil moisture behavior under heterogeneous landscapes. In addition, the in situ USDA-ARS network will serve better in remote sensing studies in which sensors with fine spatial resolution are evaluated. This study is a first step towards identifying landscape units that can be monitored using the single point reading of the USDA-ARS stations network. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2019

Evaluating the role of Farm Bill conservation program participation in conserving America’s grasslands

Grasslands are one of the most imperiled ecosystems in the world and the majority of the grassland ecosystem in the United States is privately owned and used for agriculture. Conversion of grasslands to row crops is expanding, fueled by commodity price increases, technological improvements, and agricultural policy. The U.S. government primarily uses voluntary incentive-based conservation programs to address the environmental impacts of agriculture and encourage conservation on private land. To investigate the utility of these programs to conserve grasslands, we surveyed private landowners in the Plains and Prairie Pothole Ecoregion (PPPE), one of America’s most at-risk grassland areas, about their land use, environmental attitudes and values, and reasons for or against participating in a Farm Bill conservation program. Agricultural landowners with large land holdings, who value hunting, and have positive environmental values, attitudes, and behaviors, were more likely to participate in a program. Financial considerations and a desire for autonomy limited participation. While program participants had less land in grass than nonparticipants and were more likely to convert planted grass to row crops and/or remove wetlands, they were also less likely to convert virgin sod to row crops. These findings signal the need for additional research and tools other than FBCPs to conserve the PPPE grasslands.

Land Use Policy↗

USGS2010

Pollutant fate and spatio-temporal variability in the choptank river estuary: Factors influencing water quality

Restoration of the Chesapeake Bay, the largest estuary in the United States, is a national priority. Documentation of progress of this restoration effort is needed. A study was conducted to examine water quality in the Choptank River estuary, a tributary of the Chesapeake Bay that since 1998 has been classified as impaired waters under the Federal Clean Water Act. Multiple water quality parameters (salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll a) and analyte concentrations (nutrients, herbicide and herbicide degradation products, arsenic, and copper) were measured at seven sampling stations in the Choptank River estuary. Samples were collected under base flow conditions in the basin on thirteen dates between March 2005 and April 2008. As commonly observed, results indicate that agriculture is a primary source of nitrate in the estuary and that both agriculture and wastewater treatment plants are important sources of phosphorus. Concentrations of copper in the lower estuary consistently exceeded both chronic and acute water quality criteria, possibly due to use of copper in antifouling boat paint. Concentrations of copper in the upstream watersheds were low, indicating that agriculture is not a significant source of copper loading to the estuary. Concentrations of herbicides (atrazine, simazine, and metolachlor) peaked during early-summer, indicating a rapid surface-transport delivery pathway from agricultural areas, while their degradation products (CIAT, CEAT, MESA, and MOA) appeared to be delivered via groundwater transport. Some in-river processing of CEAT occurred, whereas MESA was conservative. Observed concentrations of herbicide residues did not approach established levels of concern for aquatic organisms. Results of this study highlight the importance of continued implementation of best management practices to improve water quality in the estuary. This work provides a baseline against which to compare future changes in water quality and may be used to design future monitoring programs needed to assess restoration strategy efficacy.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2015

Trends in pesticide concentrations and use for major rivers of the United States

Trends in pesticide concentrations in 38 major rivers of the United States were evaluated in relation to use trends for 11 commonly occurring pesticide compounds. Pesticides monitored in water were analyzed for trends in concentration in three overlapping periods, 1992–2001, 1997–2006, and 2001–2010 to facilitate comparisons among sites with variable sample distributions over time and among pesticides with changes in use during different periods and durations. Concentration trends were analyzed using the SEAWAVE-Q model, which incorporates intra-annual variability in concentration and measures of long-term, mid-term, and short-term streamflow variability. Trends in agricultural use within each of the river basins were determined using interval-censored regression with high and low estimates of use. Pesticides strongly dominated by agricultural use (cyanazine, alachlor, atrazine and its degradate deethylatrazine, metolachlor, and carbofuran) had widespread agreement between concentration trends and use trends. Pesticides with substantial use in both agricultural and nonagricultural applications (simazine, chlorpyrifos, malathion, diazinon, and carbaryl) had concentration trends that were mostly explained by a combination of agricultural-use trends, regulatory changes, and urban use changes inferred from concentration trends in urban streams. When there were differences, concentration trends usually were greater than use trends (increased more or decreased less). These differences may occur because of such factors as unaccounted pesticide uses, delayed transport to the river through groundwater, greater uncertainty in the use data, or unquantified land use and management practice changes.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2017

Similarities and differences in occurrence and temporal fluctuations in glyphosate and atrazine in small Midwestern streams (USA) during the 2013 growing season

Glyphosate and atrazine are the most intensively used herbicides in the United States. Although there is abundant spatial and temporal information on atrazine occurrence at regional scales, there are far fewer data for glyphosate, and studies that compare the two herbicides are rare. We investigated temporal patterns in glyphosate and atrazine concentrations measured weekly during the 2013 growing season in 100 small streams in the Midwestern United States. Glyphosate was detected in 44% of samples (method reporting level 0.2 μg/L); atrazine was detected above a threshold of 0.2 μg/L in 54% of samples. Glyphosate was detected more frequently in 12 urban streams than in 88 agricultural streams, and at concentrations similar to those in streams with high agricultural land use (> 40% row crop) in the watershed. In contrast, atrazine was detected more frequently and at higher concentrations in agricultural streams than in urban streams. The maximum concentration of glyphosate measured at most urban sites exceeded the maximum atrazine concentration, whereas at agricultural sites the reverse was true. Measurement at a 2-day interval at 8 sites in northern Missouri revealed that transport of both herbicide compounds appeared to be controlled by spring flush, that peak concentration duration was brief, but that peaks in atrazine concentrations were of longer duration than those of glyphosate. The 2-day sampling also indicated that weekly sampling is unlikely to capture peak concentrations of glyphosate and atrazine.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2018

Quantifying anthropogenic contributions to century-scale groundwater salinity changes, San Joaquin Valley, California, USA

Total dissolved solids (TDS) concentrations in groundwater tapped for beneficial uses (drinking water, irrigation, freshwater industrial) have increased on average by about 100 mg/L over the last 100 years in the San Joaquin Valley, California (SJV). During this period land use in the SJV changed from natural vegetation and dryland agriculture to dominantly irrigated agriculture with growing urban areas. Century-scale salinity trends were evaluated by comparing TDS concentrations and major ion compositions of groundwater from wells sampled in 1910 (Historic) to data from wells sampled in 1993-2015 (Modern). TDS concentrations in subregions of the SJV, the southern (SSJV), western (WSJV), northeastern (NESJV), and southeastern (SESJV) were calculated using a cell-declustering method. TDS concentrations increased in all regions, with the greatest increases found in the SSJV and SESJV. Evaluation of the Modern data from the NESJV and SESJV found higher TDS concentrations in recently recharged (post-1950) groundwater from shallow (< 50 m) wells surrounded predominantly by agricultural land uses, while premodern (pre-1950) groundwater from deeper wells, and recently recharged groundwater from wells surrounded by mainly urban, natural, and mixed land uses had lower TDS concentrations, approaching the TDS concentrations in the Historic groundwater. For the NESJV and SESJV, inverse geochemical modeling with PHREEQC indicated that weathering of primary silicate minerals accounted for the majority of the increase in TDS concentrations, contributing more than nitrate from fertilizers and sulfate from soil amendments combined. Bicarbonate showed the greatest increase among major ions, resulting from enhanced silicate weathering due to recharge of irrigation water enriched in CO2 during the growing season. The results of this study demonstrate that large anthropogenic changes to the hydrologic regime, like massive development of irrigated agriculture in semi-arid areas like the SJV, can cause large changes in groundwater quality on a regional scale.

California↗

USGS2023

Model-based assessment and mapping of total phosphorus enrichment in rivers with sparse reference data

Water nutrient management efforts are frequently coordinated across thousands of water bodies, leading to a need for spatially extensive information to facilitate decision making. Here we explore potential applications of a machine learning model of river low-flow total phosphorus (TP) concentrations to support landscape nutrient management. The model was trained, validated, and then applied for all rivers of Michigan, USA to identify potential drivers of nutrient variation, predict alteration in nutrient concentrations from minimally disturbed conditions, and explore reach specific sensitivity to riparian agricultural change. A boosted regression tree model of low-flow TP concentrations trained on natural and anthropogenic landscape predictors accounted for 53 % of variation in cross-validation data, had good accuracy, little bias, and plausible relationships between predictors and response. Percent riparian agricultural cover accounted for the greatest root mean square error reduction in the modeled response (33.2 %), followed by riparian soil permeability (12.9 %), watershed slope (9.6 %), and percent urban cover (9.6 %). An apparent non-linear relationship between TP concentrations and percent riparian agricultural cover suggested steep positive increases in stream TP concentrations between 10 and 30 % upstream riparian agricultural cover. Predicted minimally disturbed TP concentrations were spatially variable and ranged from 7.0 to 48.5 μg l −1 , with the highest concentrations in watersheds draining low-permeability lake plain soils. Comparison of minimally disturbed predictions to those from the early 2000s suggested that much of northern Michigan existed close to the reference condition, while lower Michigan streams were often substantially enriched. Our predicted values of minimally disturbed condition generally agree with previous studies but offer greater geographic specificity. Expanded application of machine learning modeling with landscape predictor data have great potential to inform large scale strategy development in landscapes with sparse reference data.

Michigan↗