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At least 937 records · Page 52Linked to original sources

USGS2012

By the numbers: how is recovery defined by the U.S. Endangered Species Act?

Nearly 40 years after passage of the US Endangered Species Act, the prospects for listed species remain dim because they are too severely imperiled by the time they receive the act's protection. Even if threats are abated, the low abundances required for recovery often preclude a high probability of persistence. The lack of sufficient data for setting recovery objectives also remains a barrier. Delisting is considered possible for only 74% of the 1173 species with recovery plans—92% of threatened and 69% of endangered species. The median number of populations required for delisting (8) was at or below the historical numbers for 64% and at or below the numbers at listing for 37% of the species. The median number of individuals required for recovery (2400) exceeded the abundances at listing for 93% of the species, but most were below the levels considered necessary for long-term persistence, especially in changing environments.

BioScience↗

USGS2007

Biological conditions in streams of Johnson County, Kansas, and nearby Missouri, 2003 and 2004

Johnson County is one of the fastest growing and most populated counties in Kansas. Urban development affects streams by altering stream hydrology, geomorphology, water chemistry, and habitat, which then can lead to adverse effects on fish and macroinvertebrate communities. In addition, increasing sources of contaminants in urbanizing streams results in public-health concerns associated with exposure to and consumption of contaminated water. Biological assessments, or surveys of organisms living in aquatic environments, are crucial components of water-quality programs because they provide an indication of how well water bodies support aquatic life. This fact sheet describes current biological conditions of Johnson County streams and characterizes stream biology relative to urban development. Biological conditions were evaluated by collecting macroinvertebrate samples from 15 stream sites in Johnson County, Kansas, in 2003 and 2004 (fig. 1). Data from seven additional sites, collected as part of a separate study with similar objectives in Kansas and Missouri (Wilkison and others, 2005), were evaluated to provide a more comprehensive assessment of watersheds that cross State boundaries. Land-use and water- and streambed-sediment-quality data also were used to evaluate factors that may affect macroinvertebrate communities. Metrics are indices used to measure, or evaluate, macroinvertebrate response to various factors such as human disturbance. Multimetric scores, which integrated 10 different metrics that measure various aspects of macroinvertebrate communities, including organism diversity, composition, tolerance, and feeding characteristics, were used to evaluate and compare biological health of Johnson County streams. This information is useful to city and county officials for defining current biological conditions, evaluating conditions relative to State biological criteria, evaluating effects of urbanization, developing effective water-quality management plans, and documenting changes in biological conditions and water quality.

Kansas, Missouri↗

USGS2011

Status and Natural History of Emballonura Semicaudata Rotensis on Aguiguan, Mariana Islands

Pacific sheath-tailed bats ( Emballonura semicaudata rotensis ) in the Mariana Islands declined greatly in abundance and distribution during the 20th century. The small island of Aguiguan now supports the only persisting population. We studied abundance and natural history of this population from 1995–2008. There was a likely population increase during the study, with 359–466 (minimum and maximum) bats counted at caves in 2008. Bats roosted only in caves, primarily those of relatively larger size. Bats were detected in only seven of 95 caves; three caves were always occupied when surveyed. One cave consistently had the largest colony ( ± SD = 333 ± 33.6 in 2008). Others held 1–64 bats. Cave environments showed no complexities in temperature or humidity. Preliminary observations indicate a litter size of one and the possibility of birthing timed to coincide with the transitional period leading into the rainy season (June–July). We review potential threats to E. s. rotensis on Aguiguan and make suggestions for conservation.

Acta Chiropterologica↗

USGS1986

Lethal Dietary Toxicities of Environmental Contaminants and Pesticides to Coturnix

Five-day subacute dietary toxicity tests of 193 potential environmental contaminants, pesticides, organic solvents, and various adjuvants are presented for young coturnix (Japanese quail, Coturnix japonica Temminck and Schlegel). The report provides the most comprehensive data base available for avian subacute dietary toxicity tests and is primarily intended for use in ranking toxicities by a standard method that has a reasonable degree of environmental relevance. Findings are presented in two parts: Part I is a critique of selected drugs that includes discussion of subacute toxicity in relation to chemical class and structure, pesticide formulation, and age of animals; Part II is a summary of toxicologic findings for each test substance and provides a statistically basis for comparing toxicities. Data presented include the median lethal concentration (LC50), slope of the probit regression curve (dose-response curve), response chronology, and food consumption. We observed that: 1) fewer than 15% of the compounds were classed 'very' or 'highly' toxic (i.e, LC50 < 200 ppm) and all of these were either chlorinated hydrocarbons, organophosphates, or organometallics; 2) subacute toxicity may vary widely among structurally similar chemicals and between different formulations of the same chemical; therefore, conclusions about lethal hazard must be made cautiously until the actual formulation of inset has been tested: 3) inclusion of a general standard in each battery of tests is useful for detection of atypical trials and monitoring population changes but should not be used indiscriminantly for adjusting LC50's for intertest differences unless the chemicals of concern and the standard elicit their toxicities through the same action; 4) although other species have been tested effectively under the subacute protocol, coturnix were ideal for the stated purpose of this research because they are inexpensive, well-adapted to the laboratory environment, and yield good intertest reproducibility of response.

Fish and Wildlife Technical Report↗

USGS1999

Chlorine-bearing amphiboles from the Fraser mine, Sudbury, Ontario, Canada: Description and crystal chemistry

Three chemically distinct populations of Cl-bearing amphibole have been recognized in association with contact Ni-Cu ore deposits in Footwall Breccia at the Fraser mine, Sudbury, Ontario. The first population, defined as halogen-poor (<0.5 wt.% Cl) actinolite and magnesiohornblende, occurs predominantly as pale green grains and cores. These are generally overgrown by amphibole of the other two populations: a) Fe-rich, halogen-poor deep green rim of ferro-actinolite to ferrohornblende, and b) Fe-rich, Cl-rich (up to 4 wt.% Cl) ferrotschermakite to hastingsite to potassic-chlorohastingsite, which exhibits a characteristic deep blue-green pleochroism. Rare F-rich (up to 1.1 wt.% F) magnesiohornblende also is observed in the same environment. Major-element data for the Cl-rich amphiboles indicate linear, positive relationships for both Mg and K versus Cl, and a logarithmic, positive one for ([4])Al versus Cl. These data, along with selected X-ray maps, indicate that Cl is homogeneously distributed and likely structurally bound. Calculated Fe3+/Fe2+ values suggest crystallization under conditions of relatively low f(O2). At least two chemically distinct fluids seem to have been responsible for crystallization of the amphiboles. The first, which resulted in the crystallization of halogen-poor, pale green actinolite and magnesiohornblende, was likely relatively hot (???650??C) and contemporaneous with sulfide emplacement. This was followed by a lower-T (???350??C), Cl-rich fluid from which the Cl-rich amphiboles crystallized. This latter fluid may have been a modified product of the initial fluid or possibly a second discrete fluid. A subsequent F-rich fluid led to development of F-rich magnesiohornblende. The source of both Cl and F is not clear; whole-rock analyses of Footwall rocks of the Levack Gneiss Complex, however, reveal anomalous enrichments in both Cl (>700 ppm) and F (2500 ppm). These rocks thus may have been a significant contributor to the fluids.

Canadian Mineralogist↗

USGS2025

The US EPA’s National Nutrient Inventory: Critical shifts in US nutrient pollution sources from 1987 to 2017

Efforts to constrain the negative environmental impacts of excess nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) are costly and challenging, due in part to inconsistent reporting of nutrient sources at temporal and spatial scales relevant for local decision making. To meet this challenge, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s National Nutrient Inventory provides estimates of major agricultural, urban, atmospheric, and natural nutrient fluxes for the contiguous United States at county and HUC12 scales annually from 1987 (from 1950 for agriculture) to 2017. Since the late 1980s, total N emissions and atmospheric N deposition have declined 22% and 15%, respectively, despite increased agricultural emissions. Over the same period, municipal wastewater N and P loads remained largely stable, despite population increases, through wastewater treatment upgrades and the phaseout of phosphorus-containing detergents. Improved agricultural efficiency allowed for dramatic increases in agricultural production and crop harvest since 1987 (∼25% for N and P), with little change in surplus nutrients left on fields. Overall, a combination of innovative technologies and management has stemmed or even decreased major sources of nutrient pollution to the environment over the last several decades, representing an important shift that, if continued, may contribute to improved air, land, and water quality and human health.

contiguous United States↗

USGS2012

Crop classification modelling using remote sensing and environmental data in the Greater Platte River Basin, USA

With an ever expanding population, potential climate variability and an increasing demand for agriculture-based alternative fuels, accurate agricultural land-cover classification for specific crops and their spatial distributions are becoming critical to researchers, policymakers, land managers and farmers. It is important to ensure the sustainability of these and other land uses and to quantify the net impacts that certain management practices have on the environment. Although other quality crop classification products are often available, temporal and spatial coverage gaps can create complications for certain regional or time-specific applications. Our goal was to develop a model capable of classifying major crops in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) for the post-2000 era to supplement existing crop classification products. This study identifies annual spatial distributions and area totals of corn, soybeans, wheat and other crops across the GPRB from 2000 to 2009. We developed a regression tree classification model based on 2.5 million training data points derived from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) Cropland Data Layer (CDL) in relation to a variety of other relevant input environmental variables. The primary input variables included the weekly 250 m US Geological Survey Earth Observing System Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer normalized differential vegetation index, average long-term growing season temperature, average long-term growing season precipitation and yearly start of growing season. An overall model accuracy rating of 78% was achieved for a test sample of roughly 215 000 independent points that were withheld from model training. Ten 250 m resolution annual crop classification maps were produced and evaluated for the GPRB region, one for each year from 2000 to 2009. In addition to the model accuracy assessment, our validation focused on spatial distribution and county-level crop area totals in comparison with the NASS CDL and county statistics from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Census of Agriculture. The results showed that our model produced crop classification maps that closely resembled the spatial distribution trends observed in the NASS CDL and exhibited a close linear agreement with county-by-county crop area totals from USDA census data ( R 2 = 0.90).

Greater Platte River Basin↗

USGS2015

Forecasting wildlife response to rapid warming in the Alaskan Arctic

Arctic wildlife species face a dynamic and increasingly novel environment because of climate warming and the associated increase in human activity. Both marine and terrestrial environments are undergoing rapid environmental shifts, including loss of sea ice, permafrost degradation, and altered biogeochemical fluxes. Forecasting wildlife responses to climate change can facilitate proactive decisions that balance stewardship with resource development. In this article, we discuss the primary and secondary responses to physical climate-related drivers in the Arctic , associated wildlife responses, and additional sources of complexity in forecasting wildlife population outcomes. Although the effects of warming on wildlife populations are becoming increasingly well documented in the scientific literature, clear mechanistic links are often difficult to establish. An integrated science approach and robust modeling tools are necessary to make predictions and determine resiliency to change. We provide a conceptual framework and introduce examples relevant for developing wildlife forecasts useful to management decisions. © 2015 Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Institute of Biological Sciences 2014. This work is written by US Government employees and is in the public domain in the US.

Alaska↗

USGS2022

NABat ML: Utilizing deep learning to enable crowdsourced development of automated, scalable solutions for documenting North American bat populations

Bats play crucial ecological roles and provide valuable ecosystem services, yet many populations face serious threats from various ecological disturbances. The North American Bat Monitoring Program (NABat) aims to use its technology infrastructure to assess status and trends of bat populations, while developing innovative and community-driven conservation solutions. Here, we present NABat ML , an automated machine-learning algorithm that improves the scalability and scientific transparency of NABat acoustic monitoring. This model combines signal processing techniques and convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to detect and classify recorded bat echolocation calls. We developed our CNN model with internet-based computing resources (‘cloud environment’), and trained it on >600,000 spectrogram images. We also incorporated species range maps to improve the robustness and accuracy of the model for future ‘unseen’ data. We evaluated model performance using a comprehensive, independent, holdout dataset. NABat ML successfully distinguished 31 classes (30 species and a noise class) with overall weighted-average accuracy and precision rates of 92%, and ≥90% classification accuracy for 19 of the bat species. Using a single cloud-environment computing instance, the entire model training process took <16 h. Synthesis and applications . Our convolutional neural network (CNN)-based model, NABat ML , classifies 30 North American bat species using their recorded echolocation calls with an overall accuracy of 92%. In addition to providing highly accurate species-level classification, NABat ML and its outputs are compatible with Bayesian and other statistical techniques for measuring uncertainty in classification. Our model is open-source and reproducible, enabling future implementations as software on end-user devices and cloud-based web applications. These qualities make NABat ML highly suitable for applications ranging from grassroots community science initiatives to big-data methods developed and implemented by researchers and professional practitioners. We believe the transparency and accessibility of NABat ML will encourage broad-scale participation in bat monitoring, and enable development of innovative solutions needed to conserve North American bat species.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2007

Topographic Slope as a Proxy for Seismic Site-Conditions (VS30) and Amplification Around the Globe

Executive Summary It is well-known that large global earthquakes can have a dramatic effect on local communities and the built environment. Moreover, ground motions amplified by surficial materials can exacerbate the situation, often making the difference between minor and major damage. For a real-time earthquake impact alert system, such as Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) (Wald and others, 2006), we seek to rapidly evaluate potential ground shaking in the source region and subsequently provide an estimate of the population exposure to potentially fatal levels of ground shaking in any region of the world. The contribution of surficial geology (particularly soft sediments) to the amplification of ground shaking is an important component in predicting the levels of ground motion observed at any site. Unfortunately, the availability of information regarding seismic siteconditions is only available at a few sites around the globe. Herein, we describe a methodology for deriving maps of seismic site-conditions anywhere in the world using topographic slope as a proxy. Average shear-velocity down to 30 m (or VS30) measurements are correlated against topographic slope to develop two sets of coefficients for predicting VS30: one for active tectonic regions that possess dynamic topographic relief, and one for stable continental regions where changes in topography are more subdued. These coefficients have been applied to the continental United States, in addition to other regions around the world. They are subsequently compared to existing site-condition maps based on geology and observed VS30 measurements, where available. The application of the topographic slope method in regions with abundant VS30 measurements (for example California, Memphis, and Taiwan) indicates that this method provides site condition-maps of similar quality, or in some cases, maps superior to those developed from more traditional techniques. Having a first-order assessment of seismic site-conditions anywhere in the world provides a valuable tool to rapidly estimate ground motions following any global earthquake, the primary motivation for this research. These VS30 maps will enable us to better quantify possible ground shaking and rapidly deliver these predictions to emergency managers and responders. In addition, the VS30 maps for the globe will also have practical applications for numerous related probabilistic- and scenario-based studies. To date, several researchers have requested maps or have used the approach outlined herein for their own applications (for example Cagnan and Kariptas, written commun., 2007; Harmandar and others, 2007). Given that we anticipate a significant demand for these products, we have developed an internet delivery service so that users can download maps and grids of seismic site-conditions for specified regions. To some extent, these grids can also be customized by the user if they disagree with the predefined correlations derived using the methodologies described within this report. Finally, this report represents a more comprehensive account of this technique and provides a more fully illustrated global description of results than that given in Wald and Allen (2007), which has been accepted for publication in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1997

Comparison of phytoplankton succession in two lakes of different mixing regimes

The influence of frequent water-column mixing on phytoplankton succession and species composition was studied by comparing plankton dynamics in two lakes (Lake Opinicon and Upper Rock Lake) which have similar water chemistry, but differ widely in their basin morphometries: Opinicon is shallow and frequently-mixed during the ice-free season, whereas nearby Upper Rock is deep and dimictic. The species composition and the seasonal succession of phytoplankton were broadly similar in both lakes over the three years of study. The spring phytoplankton in both lakes consisted of diatoms that were replaced in the summer and fall by cyanobacteria. Diatom peaks in Opinicon preceded similar peaks in Upper Rock. Loss of diatoms from the phytoplankton in Upper Rock appeared to be related to sedimentation; in contrast, zooplankton herbivory may have resulted, partly, in loss of diatoms in Opinicon. Lightly-silicified and spindle-shaped diatoms (Rhizosolenia and single-celled Fragilaria) were more abundant in the dimictic lake, whereas heavily-silicified diatoms (Aulacoseira) were more abundant in the frequently-mixed lake. Zooplankton taxa and their seasonal patterns were similar in both lakes, but populations were considerably denser in the frequently-mixed lake. The results of canonical correspondence analysis and detrended correspondence analysis (multivariate ordination techniques) indicated that, although phytoplankton growth was influenced by similar physical and chemical variables in both lakes, the influence of chemical variables was stronger in Upper Rock. A frequently-mixed system, such as Lake Opinicon, appeared to provide a similar environment for plankton development to a well-mixed epilimnion of a typical dimictic lake, such as Upper Rock Lake.

Archiv fur Hydrobiologie↗

USGS2004

Global climate change and wildlife in North America

It is widely accepted by the scientific community that the earth, which has always experienced climate variation, is now undergoing a period of rapid climate change that is enhanced by anthropogenic atmospheric carbon enrichment during the past 100 years. These climatic changes are accelerating and projections for the next 100 years indicate extensive warming in most (but not all) areas, changing patterns of precipitation, and a significant acceleration of sea level rise. Other likely components of ongoing climate change include changes in season lengths, decreasing range of nighttime versus daytime temperatures, declining snowpack, and increasing frequency and intensity of severe weather events. The many components of climate change, and especially the unprecedented rapid rate of change, are just as important as increasing temperatures. Wildlife species are closely adapted to their environments and readily respond to climate variation. However, as discussed in this technical review, the climate change now underway has extensive potential to affect wildlife throughout North America, either directly or indirectly through responses to changing habitat conditions. When considered in combination with other factors (e.g., pollution, ozone depletion, urbanization, etc.), the potential effect is even greater. The effects of climate change on populations and range distributions of wildlife are expected to be species specific and highly variable, with some effects considered negative and others considered positive. In North America the ranges of habitats and wildlife are predicted to generally move northward as temperatures increase. Variations in this overall pattern will be dependent upon specific local conditions, changing precipitation patterns, and the response of different species to different components of climate change. It follows that the structure of plant–animal communities will also change. Ignoring climate change is likely to increasingly result in failure to reach wildlife management objectives. Wildlife managers need to become knowledgeable about climate change, ways to cope with it, and ways to take advantage of it. Management options currently available include protecting coastal wetlands to allow for sea level rise, reducing the risks to wildlife from potential catastrophic events, adjusting yield and harvest models, accounting for known climatic variations, and taking climate change into consideration when selecting the location and other characteristics of conservation areas. Wildlife managers also need to expect the unexpected and reduce nonclimate stressors on ecosystems. Overall, wildlife managers can minimize negative impacts to wildlife and take advantage of positive aspects by planning ahead and employing adaptive management.

Technical Review↗

USGS2025

Longevity, age-specific survival, and mean generation time of Rana muscosa: Implications for conservation of possibly the longest lived Ranid frog

Life history strategies vary widely among species and play a vital role in extinction risk, especially in a rapidly changing environment. For many taxa, information on life history such as longevity, lifespan, and generation time is incomplete. This is especially true for amphibians, which have experienced large-scale declines in recent decades. The mountain yellow-legged frog ( Rana muscosa ) is a California endemic recognized as a state and federally endangered species. We evaluated a 23-year dataset of six wild R. muscosa populations in southern California. We calculated the average lifespan of individuals in these six populations to be approximately 9.5 years, with a mean generation time of 7.4 years. We did not detect a difference in longevity between sexes or a difference in apparent survival across various ages of adults. We also documented the longest-lived ranid frog ever recorded from a wild population: a male R. muscosa that was at least 21 years old. Our results suggest a relatively long generation time for this species, a characteristic that may benefit them because reproduction is regularly challenged by drought, fire activity, and disease. This information is important for understanding the complex life history of this endangered ranid frog and can help guide efforts to manage and recover the species.

California↗

USGS2024

Partitioning of chemicals in aquatic organisms

Human populations have utilized heavy metals and persistent organic pollutants for their physiochemical properties in industrial, agricultural, and consumer goods for decades. Limited knowledge on their persistence and toxicological effects has resulted in organisms being exposed to some of the most problematic compounds ever generated by humans. Although overlap in exposure paradigms exists for historical and emerging contaminants, the different physiochemical properties, sources into the environment, and bioactivity of contaminants of emerging concern (CECs) have highlighted the importance of characterizing their risk to aquatic wildlife under chronic low-dose exposure scenarios. This chapter defines the fundamental terminology associated with characterizing the exposure paradigm in ecological risk assessment. The different sources and fate, routes of exposure, and biotransformation of common contaminants are covered using model chemicals to emphasize important factors that affect their partitioning among different environmental matrices. Finally, this chapter concludes with a discussion about bioaccumulation models and an example of how two similar CECs demonstrate different clearance rates and bioaccumulation potentials in fish.

Book chapter↗

USGS2021

Trade-offs in initial and long-term handling efficiency of PIT-tag and photographic identification methods

Individual identification is required for long-term investigations that examine population-level changes in survival or abundance, and mechanisms associated with these changes in wild populations. Such identification generally requires the application of a unique mark, or the documentation of characteristics distinctive to each individual animal. To minimize impacts to often declining populations, scientific and ethical concerns encourage marking strategies that minimize handling time (i.e., stress) for captured individuals. We examined the relative efficacy of passive integrated transponder (PIT)-tagging and photo-identification to identify individual Boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ) in field and indoor settings. We evaluated whether initial handling time was influenced by identification method (PIT-tag or photo-identification) or environment (field or indoor) and assessed the applicability of each method in long-term monitoring programs. Initial handling time was higher for PIT-tagging than photo-identification and higher in the field than in an indoor environment; however, handling time for previously PIT-tagged individuals was greatly reduced such that photo-identification led to > 5.5 times more handling time than PIT-tagging over the course of a toad's lifetime. Investigators must determine the trade-off between initial and subsequent handling times to minimize the expected (mean) cumulative handling time for an individual over the course of a study. Cumulative handling time is a function of the study design and the species’ survival and detection probabilities. We developed a Shiny Application to allow investigators to determine the identification method that minimizes handling time for their own study system.

Ecological Indicators↗

USGS2023

Social vulnerability and geographic access barriers to earthquake early warning education in museums and other free choice learning environments

Given the earthquake risk on the West Coast of the United States, individuals and communities require a basic understanding of ShakeAlert earthquake early warning technology, which may provide crucial seconds of warning. Free choice learning environments (FCLEs), such as museums, public libraries, and national parks, are uniquely positioned to expand the reach of earthquake early warning through educational initiatives and resources. Earthquake education in these spaces creates awareness of earthquake hazards and risk in areas where people live or visit and may also increase engagement in preparedness behavior as they are trusted sources of information in their communities. However, population demographics within the ShakeAlert states has yet to be examined; audience segmentation theories require a better understanding of the demographics of the people the system seeks to serve. Here we build upon previous typology research that examined over 150 earthquake displays around the United States and found that most did not include information about earthquake preparedness or associated protective actions. This new research shifts to a hierarchical clustering analysis that identifies seven main population groups within the ShakeAlert states. We also find that the cost of admission and the geographic distance away from FCLEs, including the potential cost and time of transportation, may lead to an urban-rural divide in visitor access. Using audience segmentation theories as related to earthquakes, we can understand critical barriers to FCLEs and opportunities for ShakeAlert education. As earthquake early warning systems expand internationally, thoughtful and equitable education initiatives are beneficial to reach critical audiences.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗

USGS2025

Integrating sea level rise scenarios into Everglades restoration planning

One of the largest and most expensive restoration efforts in the world is occurring in the Everglades, a sub-tropical freshwater wetland system located in southern Florida. This unique ecosystem supports several endangered species, provides flood control for Florida’s large urban population, and provides water for both agriculture and drinking supply within the state. The Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Plan (CERP), authorized by Congress in 2000, guides federal, state, and local efforts to build the infrastructure necessary to bring more water into the Everglades and restore its ecological integrity, while balancing other water-related needs such as water supply and flood protection in the human environment. The Everglades encompasses the southern coast of Florida and restoration efforts are likely to be impacted by climate-induced sea level rise. However, currently, many project planning studies do not formally incorporate the potential impacts of sea level rise when evaluating restoration plan outcomes. Resource managers and project planners require methods and tools to confidently incorporate scenarios of sea level rise into their evaluations. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and partners from the University of Florida worked with project planners from multiple agencies to identify restoration questions for consideration when addressing sea level rise. In addition, our project team sought to understand the types of sea level rise decision-support tools that would be of interest, and then worked with Everglades restoration managers and project planners to develop those tools. The tools developed by this project can be used by project planners to inform their decision-making abilities when considering multiple restoration plans across the Everglades landscape. Specifically, the novel ways to visualize output information from ecological models that came of this project can help project planners compare alternative restoration plans that include potential sea level rise impacts. This effort demonstrates how incorporating sea level rise scenarios into Everglades restoration project planning can help managers decide whether projects will maintain or improve ecological integrity and evaluate water availability for wildlife and humans.

Final Report↗

USGS2024

Detection of periodic peaks in Karenia brevis concentration consistent with the time-delay logistic equation

The logistic equation models single-species population growth with a sigmoid curve that begins as exponential and ends with an asymptotic approach to a final population determined by natural system carrying capacity. But the population of a natural system often does not stabilize as it approaches carrying capacity. Instead, it exhibits periodic change, sometimes with very large amplitudes. The time-delay modification of the logistic equation accounts for this behavior by connecting the present rate of population growth to conditions at an earlier time. The periodic change in population with time can progress from a monotonic approach to the carrying capacity; to oscillation around the carrying capacity; to limit-cycle periodic change; and, finally, to chaotic change.

Florida↗