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Preliminary report on the geology and water resources of Nebraska west of the one hundred and third meridian

This report is based on field work of the season of 1897. It is designed mainly to furnish information in relation to the geologic structure and the prospects for underground waters. A general account will also be given of the surface waters and their present and prospective use for irrigation, etc. The region is the portion of Nebraska lying west of the one hundred and third meridian, comprising Sioux, Scotts Bluff, Banner, and Kimball counties, the western portions of Cheyenne and Boxbutte counties, and the central and western portion of Dawes County; in all, an area of 7,400 square miles, adjoined on the west by Wyoming, on the north by South Dakota, and on the south by Colorado. It lies on the Great Plains south of the Black Hills of South Dakota. The Scotts Bluff, Banner, and Cheyenne counties areas were· examined in detail, but time did not permit more than a general reconnaissance of the adjoining regions. I was assisted by Mr. C. A. Fisher, who obtained the data for the greater part of Kimball and Boxbutte counties. For several months I was accompanied by Prof. E. H. Barbour, the acting State geologist of Nebraska, who did much to further the progress of the work.

Nebraska↗

Maps showing ground-water conditions in the Willcox area, Cochise and Graham Counties, Arizona - 1975

The Willcox area includes about 1,500 square miles in southeastern Arizona. The main use of ground water is for irrigation. For 1954-75, the estimated ground-water pumpage exceeded 100,000 acre-feet per year, and for 1967-75, ground-water pumpage averaged about 300,000 acre-feet per year. Ground-water withdrawals have resulted in general water-level declines in most of the developed part of the area. Information shown on the maps includes change in water level (1963-75), irrigated area, depth to water, well depth, altitude of the water level, and distribution of dissolved solids and fluoride. Hydrographs of water levels in selected wells and a table of historical pumpage are included also. (Woodard-USGS)

Arizona↗

Milkweed and floral resource availability for monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in the United States

The global decline of pollinators, particularly insects, underscores the importance of enhanced monitoring of their populations and habitats. However, monitoring some pollinator habitat is challenging due to widespread species distributions and shifts in habitat requirements through seasons and life stages. The monarch butterfly ( Danaus plexippus ), a migratory insect pollinator that breeds widely throughout North America, presents a unique case study for testing a sampling framework to overcome these challenges. Monarchs exhibit discrete resource needs across life stages (e.g., larval requirement for milkweed, adult requirement for floral nectar), utilizing many land use types across their extensive geographic range during breeding and migration seasons. The Integrated Monarch Monitoring Program (IMMP) uses a standardized protocol with a generalized random tessellation stratified (GRTS) sampling design to gather spatially balanced and ecologically representative information on monarch habitats within the United States. The IMMP is applicable to various land use types and habitats used by breeding monarchs and may be extended to sites outside of the GRTS design to collect data on non-random sites of interest, such as legacy or conservation sites. Additionally, the IMMP’s modular design and publicly available training allows for broad participation, including involvement from community scientists. Here, we summarize habitat metrics (milkweed and floral resources) across 1,233 sites covering much of the monarch’s breeding range. We examine variation in milkweed density and floral resource availability on probabilistic (random) and non-probabilistic (convenience) samples and among land use types (site types). Additionally, we assess resource availability within core geographies for monarch breeding and migration, specifically within the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service’s Monarch Conservation Units (western, northern, and southern United States). Milkweed density, floral frequency, and floral richness were higher on non-random sites and in the North region. Among site types, milkweed density was highest on Rights-of-Way and Unclassified Grassland, while floral frequency was lowest on Rights-of-Way. The IMMP represents the first field-based habitat monitoring program of this scale for monarchs, yielding a robust dataset on monarchs and their habitats across their breeding range and offering a framework for surveying the habitat of insect species with diverse habitat requirements or widespread distributions.

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution↗

Nesting ecology of waterbirds at Grays Lake, Idaho

Montane wetlands provide valuable habitat for nesting waterfowl and other waterbirds in the western United States, but relatively little information is available about the nesting ecology of their waterbird communities. We describe the general nesting ecology of breeding waterbirds at a large, shallow montane wetland in southeast Idaho during 1997-2000. Habitats included upland grasslands and intermittently to semipermanently flooded wetland habitats. We located a total of 1207 nests of 23 bird species: eared grebe (Podiceps nigricollis), Canada goose (Branta canadensis), mallard (Anas platyrhynchos), gadwall (A. strepera), American wigeon (A. americana), green-winged teal (A. crecca), blue-winged teal (A. discors), cinnamon teal (A. cyanoptera), northern shoveler (A. clypeata), northern pintail (A. acuta), redhead (Aythya americana), canvasback (A. valisineria), lesser scaup (A. affinis), ruddy duck (Oxyuris jamaicensis), northern harrier (Circus cyaneus), American coot (Fulica americana), Virginia rail (Rallus limicola), greater sandhill crane (Grus canadensis tabida), American avocet (Recurvirostra americana), long-billed curlew (Numenius americanus), Wilsons snipe (Gallinago delicta), Wilsons phalarope (Phalaropus tricolor), and short-eared owl (Asio flammeus). Most nests were initiated in May-early June and were terminated (hatched or destroyed) by the third week of June. Mean daily survival rate (DSR) for Canada goose nests was 0.954 0.005 (SE) (n = 127 nests), equivalent to Mayfield nest success of 21%. Mean DSR for dabbling duck nests over all four years was 0.938 0.006 (n = 141), equivalent to Mayfield nest success of 11%. For all other species where we found >10 nests each year (eared grebe, redhead, canvasback, coot, sandhill crane, American avocet, and Wilsons snipe), >50% of nests found hatched at least one young. Success rates for geese, cranes, and ducks were lower than reported for Grays Lake during 1949-1951 and lower than most other wetlands in the region.

Western North American Naturalist↗

Incorporation of prior information on parameters into nonlinear regression groundwater flow models: 2. Applications

This paper investigates factors influencing the degree of improvement in estimates of parameters of a nonlinear regression groundwater flow model by incorporating prior information of unknown reliability. Consideration of expected behavior of the regression solutions and results of a hypothetical modeling problem lead to several general conclusions. First, if the parameters are properly scaled, linearized expressions for the mean square error (MSE) in parameter estimates of a nonlinear model will often behave very nearly as if the model were linear. Second, by using prior information, the MSE in properly scaled parameters can be reduced greatly over the MSE of ordinary least squares estimates of parameters. Third, plots of estimated MSE and the estimated standard deviation of MSE versus an auxiliary parameter (the ridge parameter) specifying the degree of influence of the prior information on regression results can help determine the potential for improvement of parameter estimates. Fourth, proposed criteria can be used to make appropriate choices for the ridge parameter and another parameter expressing degree of overall bias in the prior information. Results of a case study of Truckee Meadows, Reno-Sparks area, Washoe County, Nevada, conform closely to the results of the hypothetical problem. In the Truckee Meadows case, incorporation of prior information did not greatly change the parameter estimates from those obtained by ordinary least squares. However, the analysis showed that both sets of estimates are more reliable than suggested by the standard errors from ordinary least squares.

Water Resources Research↗

Methods for peak-flow frequency analysis and reporting for streamgages in or near Montana based on data through water year 2015

This report documents the methods for peak-flow frequency (hereinafter “frequency”) analysis and reporting for streamgages in and near Montana following implementation of the Bulletin 17C guidelines. The methods are used to provide estimates of peak-flow quantiles for 50-, 42.9-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent annual exceedance probabilities for selected streamgages operated by the U.S. Geological Survey Wyoming-Montana Water Science Center (WY–MT WSC). These annual exceedance probabilities correspond to 2-, 2.33-, 5-, 10-, 25-, 50-, 100-, 200-, and 500-year recurrence intervals, respectively. Standard procedures specific to the WY–MT WSC for implementing the Bulletin 17C guidelines include (1) the use of the Expected Moments Algorithm analysis for fitting the log-Pearson Type III distribution, incorporating historical information where applicable; (2) the use of weighted skew coefficients (based on weighting at-site station skew coefficients with generalized skew coefficients from the Bulletin 17B national skew map); and (3) the use of the Multiple Grubbs-Beck Test for identifying potentially influential low flows. For some streamgages, the peak-flow records are not well represented by the standard procedures and require user-specified adjustments informed by hydrologic judgement. The specific characteristics of peak-flow records addressed by the informed-user adjustments include (1) regulated peak-flow records, (2) atypical upper-tail peak-flow records, and (3) atypical lower-tail peak-flow records. In all cases, the informed-user adjustments use the Expected Moments Algorithm fit of the log-Pearson Type III distribution using the at-site station skew coefficient, a manual potentially influential low flow threshold, or both. Appropriate methods can be applied to at-site frequency estimates to provide improved representation of long-term hydroclimatic conditions. The methods for improving at-site frequency estimates by weighting with regional regression equations and by Maintenance of Variance Extension Type III record extension are described. Frequency analyses were conducted for 99 example streamgages to indicate various aspects of the frequency- analysis methods described in this report. The frequency analyses and results for the example streamgages are presented in a separate data release associated with this report consisting of tables and graphical plots that are structured to include information concerning the interpretive decisions involved in the frequency analyses. Further, the separate data release includes the input files to the PeakFQ program, version 7.1, including the peak-flow data file and the analysis specification file that were used in the peak-flow frequency analyses. Peak-flow frequencies are also reported in separate data releases for selected streamgages in the Beaverhead River and Clark Fork Basins and also for selected streamgages in the Ruby, Jefferson, and Madison River Basins.

Montana↗

A generalized mixed effects model of abundance for mark-resight data when sampling is without replacement

In recent years, the mark-resight method for estimating abundance when the number of marked individuals is known has become increasingly popular. By using field-readable bands that may be resighted from a distance, these techniques can be applied to many species, and are particularly useful for relatively small, closed populations. However, due to the different assumptions and general rigidity of the available estimators, researchers must often commit to a particular model without rigorous quantitative justification for model selection based on the data. Here we introduce a nonlinear logit-normal mixed effects model addressing this need for a more generalized framework. Similar to models available for mark-recapture studies, the estimator allows a wide variety of sampling conditions to be parameterized efficiently under a robust sampling design. Resighting rates may be modeled simply or with more complexity by including fixed temporal and random individual heterogeneity effects. Using information theory, the model(s) best supported by the data may be selected from the candidate models proposed. Under this generalized framework, we hope the uncertainty associated with mark-resight model selection will be reduced substantially. We compare our model to other mark-resight abundance estimators when applied to mainland New Zealand robin (Petroica australis) data recently collected in Eglinton Valley, Fiordland National Park and summarize its performance in simulation experiments.

Book chapter↗

Preliminary hydrogeologic assessment and study plan for a regional ground-water resource investigation of the Blue Ridge and Piedmont provinces of North Carolina

Prolonged drought, allocation of surface-water flow, and increased demands on ground-water supplies resulting from population growth are focuses for the need to evaluate ground-water resources in the Blue Ridge and Piedmont Provinces of North Carolina. Urbanization and certain aspects of agricultural production also have caused increased concerns about protecting the quality of ground water in this region. More than 75 percent of the State's population resides in the Blue Ridge and Piedmont Provinces in an area that covers 30,544 square miles and 65 counties. Between 1940 and 2000, the population in the Piedmont and Blue Ridge Provinces increased from 2.66 to 6.11 million; most of this increase occurred in the Piedmont. Of the total population, an estimated 1.97 million people, or 32.3 percent (based on the 1990 census), relied on ground water for a variety of uses, including commercial, industrial, and most importantly, potable supplies. Ground water in the Blue Ridge and Piedmont traditionally has not been considered as a source for large supplies, primarily because of readily available and seemingly limitless surface-water supplies, and the perception that ground water in the Blue Ridge and Piedmont Provinces occurs in a complex, generally heterogeneous geologic environment. Some reluctance to use ground water for large supplies derives from the reputation of aquifers in these provinces for producing low yields to wells, and the few high-yield wells that are drilled seem to be scattered in areas distant from where they are needed. Because the aquifers in these provinces are shallow, they also are susceptible to contamination by activities on the land surface. In response to these issues, the North Carolina Legislature supported the creation of a Resource Evaluation Program to ensure the long-term availability, sustainability, and quality of ground water in the State. As part of the Resource Evaluation Program, the North Carolina Division of Water Quality, Groundwater Section, in cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey, initiated a multiyear study of ground water in the Blue Ridge and Piedmont Provinces. The study began in 1999. Most of the study area is underlain by a complex, two-part, regolith-fractured crystalline rock aquifer system. Thickness of the regolith throughout the study area is highly variable and ranges from 0 to more than 150 feet. The regolith consists of an unconsolidated or semiconsolidated mixture of clay and fragmental material ranging in grain size from silt to boulders. Because porosities range from 35 to 55 percent, the regolith provides the bulk of the water storage within the Blue Ridge and Piedmont ground-water system. At the base of the regolith is the transition zone where saprolite grades into unweathered bedrock. The transition zone has been identified as a potential conduit for rapid ground-water flow. If this is the case, the transition zone also may serve as a conduit for rapid movement of contaminants to nearby wells or to streams with channels that cut into 1 U.S. Geological Survey, Raleigh, North Carolina. 2 North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources, Division of Water Quality, Groundwater Section. or through the transition zone. How rapidly a contaminant moves through the system largely may be a function of the characteristics of the transition zone. The transition zone is one of several topics identified during the literature review and data synthesis, for which there is a deficiency in data and understanding of the processes involved in the movement of ground water to surface water. Because the Blue Ridge and Piedmont study area is so large, and the hydrogeology diverse, it is not feasible to study all of the area in detail. A more feasible approach is to select areas that are most representative of the land use, geology, and hydrology to obtain an understanding of the hydrologic processes in the selected areas, and transfer the knowledge from these local "type areas" to similar regional hydrogeologic areas. For the purpose of this study, the term "type area" applies to a 10- to 100-square mile area within a hydrogeologic terrane where information is sufficient to develop and test a concept of ground-water flow by using analytical or numerical methods that can be validated by field measurements. Ideally, these type areas are selected to be representative of the flow system that is present wherever a particular hydrogeologic terrane is present. This report consists of two basic parts. The first part describes the results of a comprehensive review and synthesis of information and literature that provides the basic background for the study. This includes current (2002) knowledge regarding general geology and the hydrogeologic framework of the fractured-rock aquifer system that underlies the Blue Ridge and Piedmont Provinces. In spite of the quantity of information identified during the literature review and the amount of past work that has been documented, there are still research needs to be met. The second part of the report describes State ground-water issues and problems, available data, and data deficiencies. It also describes the design and implementation of efforts to characterize ground-water quality and to quantify factors that influence the movement and availability of ground water in the hydrogeologic terranes characterized by (1) massive or foliated crystalline rocks overlain by thick regolith and (2) massive or foliated crystalline rocks overlain by thin regolith. As of September 2001, seven sites had been identified as potential study sites to be used to characterize the hydrogeology and water quality of ype areas considered representative of the larger terranes. Detailed geologic mapping, core drilling, well installation, and surface and borehole geophysical surveys are in progress at four of the sites.

North Carolina↗

Development and testing of a contamination potential mapping system for a portion of the General Separations Area, Savannah River Site, South Carolina

A methodology was developed to evaluate and map the contamination potential or aquifer sensitivity of the upper groundwater flow system of a portion of the General Separations Area (GSA) at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina. A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to integrate diverse subsurface geologic data, soils data, and hydrology utilizing a stack-unit mapping approach to construct mapping layers. This is the first time that such an approach has been used to delineate the hydrogeology of a coastal plain environment. Unit surface elevation maps were constructed for the tops of six Tertiary units derived from over 200 boring logs. Thickness or isopach maps were created for five hydrogeologic units by differencing top and basal surface elevations. The geologic stack-unit map was created by stacking the five isopach maps and adding codes for each stack-unit polygon. Stacked-units were rated according to their hydrogeologic properties and ranked using a logarithmic approach (utility theory) to establish a contamination potential index. Colors were assigned to help display relative importance of stacked-units in preventing or promoting transport of contaminants. The sensitivity assessment included the effects of surface soils on contaminants which are particularly important for evaluating potential effects from surface spills. Hydrogeologic/hydrologic factors did not exhibit sufficient spatial variation to warrant incorporation into contamination potential assessment. Development of this contamination potential mapping system provides a useful tool for site planners, environmental scientists, and regulatory agencies.A methodology was developed to evaluate and map the contamination potential or aquifer sensitivity of the upper groundwater flow system of a portion of the General Separations Area (GSA) at the Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina. A Geographic Information System (GIS) was used to integrate diverse subsurface geologic data, soils data, and hydrology utilizing a stack-unit mapping approach to construct mapping layers. This is the first time that such an approach has been used to delineate the hydrogeology of a coastal plain environment. Unit surface elevation maps were constructed for the tops of six Tertiary units derived from over 200 boring logs. Thickness or isopach maps were created for five hydrogeologic units by differencing top and basal surface elevations. The geologic stack-unit map was created by stacking the five isopach maps and adding codes for each stack-unit polygon. Stacked-units were rated according to their hydrogeologic properties and ranked using a logarithmic approach (utility theory) to establish a contamination potential index. Colors were assigned to help display relative importance of stacked-units in preventing or promoting transport of contaminants. The sensitivity assessment included the effects of surface soils on contaminants which are particularly important for evaluating potential effects from surface spills. Hydrogeologic/hydrologic factors did not exhibit sufficient spatial variation to warrant incorporation into contamination potential assessment. Development of this contamination potential mapping system provides a useful tool for site planners, environmental scientists, and regulatory agencies.

South Carolina↗

Case studies of riparian and watershed restoration in the southwestern United States—Principles, challenges, and successes

Globally, rivers and streams are highly altered by impoundments, diversions, and stream channelization associated with agricultural and water delivery needs. Climate change imposes additional challenges by further reducing discharge, introducing variability in seasonal precipitation patterns, and increasing temperatures. Collectively, these changes in a river or stream’s annual hydrology affects surface and groundwater dynamics, fluvial processes, and the linked aquatic and riparian responses, particularly in arid regions. Recognizing the inherent ecosystem services that riparian and aquatic habitats provide, society increasingly supports restoring the functionality of riparian and aquatic ecosystems. Given the wide range in types and scales of riparian impacts, approaches to riparian restoration can range from tactical, short-term, and site-specific efforts to strategic projects and long-term collaborations best pursued at the watershed scale. In the spirit of sharing information, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Grand Canyon Monitoring and Research Center convened a workshop June 23-25, 2015, in Flagstaff, Ariz. for practitioners in restoration science to share general principles, successful restoration practices, and discuss the challenges that face those practicing riparian restoration in the southwestern United States. Presenters from the Colorado River and the Rio Grande basins, offered their perspectives and experiences in restoration at the local, reach and watershed scale. Outcomes of the workshop include this Proceedings volume, which is composed of extended abstracts of most of the presentations given at the workshop, and recommendations or information needs identified by participants. The organization of the Proceedings follows a general progression from local scale restoration to river and watershed scale approaches, and finishes with restoration assessments and monitoring.

Open-File Report↗

NBII-SAIN Data Management Toolkit

The Strategic Plan for the U.S. Geological Survey Biological Informatics Program (2005-2009) recognizes the need for effective data management: Though the Federal government invests more than $600 million per year in biological data collection, it is difficult to address these issues because of limited accessibility and lack of standards for data and information...variable quality, sources, methods, and formats (for example observations in the field, museum specimens, and satellite images) present additional challenges. This is further complicated by the fast-moving target of emerging and changing technologies such as GPS and GIS. Even though these technologies offer new solutions, they also create new informatics challenges (Ruggiero and others, 2005). The USGS National Biological Information Infrastructure program, hereafter referred to as NBII, is charged with the mission to improve the way data and information are gathered, documented, stored, and accessed. The central objective of this project is a direct reflection of the purpose of NBII as described by John Mosesso, Program Manager of the U.S. Geological Survey-Biological Informatics Program-GAP Analysis: At the outset, the reason for bringing about NBII was that there were significant amounts of data and information scattered all over the U.S., not accessible, in incompatible formats, and that NBII was tasked with addressing this problem...NBII's focus is to pull data together that truly matters to someone or communities. Essentially, the core questions are: 1) what are the issues, 2) where is the data, and 3) how can we make it usable and accessible (John Mosesso, U.S. Geological Survey, oral commun., 2006). Redundancy in data collection can be a major issue when multiple stakeholders are involved with a common effort. In 2001 the U.S. General Accounting Office (USGAO) estimated that about 50 percent of the Federal government's geospatial data at the time was redundant. In addition, approximately 80 percent of the cost of a spatial information system is associated with spatial data collection and management (U.S. General Accounting Office, 2003). These figures indicate that the resources (time, personnel, money) of many agencies and organizations could be used more efficiently and effectively. Dedicated and conscientious data management coordination and documentation is critical for reducing such redundancy. Substantial cost savings and increased efficiency are direct results of a pro-active data management approach. In addition, details of projects as well as data and information are frequently lost as a result of real-world occurrences such as the passing of time, job turnover, and equipment changes and failure. A standardized, well documented database allows resource managers to identify issues, analyze options, and ultimately make better decisions in the context of adaptive management (National Land and Water Resources Audit and the Australia New Zealand Land Information Council on behalf of the Australian National Government, 2003). Many environmentally focused, scientific, or natural resource management organizations collect and create both spatial and non-spatial data in some form. Data management appropriate for those data will be contingent upon the project goal(s) and objectives and thus will vary on a case-by-case basis. This project and the resulting Data Management Toolkit, hereafter referred to as the Toolkit, is therefore not intended to be comprehensive in terms of addressing all of the data management needs of all projects that contain biological, geospatial, and other types of data. The Toolkit emphasizes the idea of connecting a project's data and the related management needs to the defined project goals and objectives from the outset. In that context, the Toolkit presents and describes the fundamental components of sound data and information management that are common to projects involving biological, geospatial, and other related data

Open-File Report↗

A natural resource condition assessment for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks: Appendix 14: plants of conservation concern

Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks are located in the California Floristic Province, which has been named one of world‘s hotspots of endemic biodiversity (Myers et al. 2000). The California Floristic Province is the largest and most important geographic floristic unit in California and extends from the Klamath Mountains of southwestern Oregon to the northwestern portion of Baja California (Hickman 1993). The Sierra Nevada, one of six regions that make up the California Floristic Province, covers nearly 20% of the land in California yet contains over 50% of its flora. Within the Sierra Nevada, the southern Sierra supports more Sierran endemic and rare plant taxa than the central and northern portions of the region (Shevock 1996). Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks (SEKI) encompass roughly 20% of the southern Sierra Nevada region. The parks overlap three floristic subregions (central Sierra Nevada High, southern Sierra Nevada High, and southern Sierra Nevada Foothills), and border the Great Basin Floristic Province. The parks support a rich and diverse vascular flora composed of over 1,560 taxa. Of these, 150 taxa are identified as having special status. The term special status is applied here to include taxa that are state or federally listed, rare in California, or at risk because they have a limited distribution. Only one species from these parks is listed under the state or federal Endangered Species Acts ( Carex tompkinsii , Tompkins‘ sedge, is listed as a rare species under the California Endangered Species Act), and one species is under review for federal endangered listing ( Pinus albicaulis , whitebark pine). However, an absence of threatened and endangered species recognized by Endangered Species Acts is not equivalent to an absence of species at risk. There are 83 plant taxa documented as occurring in SEKI that are considered imperiled or vulnerable in the state by the California Department of Fish and Game‘s California Natural Diversity Database (CNDDB 2010a). There are an additional 66 taxa not formally listed by CNDDB that are recognized as having special status because their distribution is restricted to the Sierra Nevada. Special status plants are distributed throughout the two parks and inhabit a wide range of environments along the length of the elevation gradient that characterizes these parks. Ideally, we would assess the condition (status and trends) of each of the taxa on the SEKI special status plant list, documenting current population sizes, demographic rates and demographic trends. We would also hope to quantify the effects of individual stressors on each species based on existing monitoring and research. However, no data are available for most of the species on the special status plant list. For those few species (12 herbaceous species and two tree species) for which we possess some change over time information, the data are not adequate to make a competent assessment. Note that we have not explored the tree demographic information in any detail, as is covered in the NRCA Intact Forest/Five Needle Pines and Sequoia chapters. In general, we are unable to present an ‗integrity‘ metric for special status species in the parks, since the data to quantify the condition of each species in such a manner is not available. In contrast, the park does possess substantial data describing biodiversity in the parks. Therefore, our analysis focuses on describing the distribution and rarity of special status plants within the parks, with a particular focus on assessing the spatial distribution of species richness. We hope that such information will prove useful to park managers in determining which areas in the parks merit the most attention (for example in developing monitoring protocols). We also assess potential vulnerability of special status species to the stressors chosen by the NRCA working group, using both park data and available literature. As a first step, we spent considerable effort updating and refining the criteria for the special status plant list, as this list defines which taxa are considered in our assessment. Observation data of these species was then compiled from all known sources in order to provide a comprehensive view of where special status plants have been documented and, ultimately, to enable the most informed determinations of areas in the parks that potentially support the highest number of rare and endemic taxa. These ‗hot spot‘ analyses are presented by geographic region, vegetation type and elevation. For these and other analyses presented in this report, we place more focus on summarizing findings for the herbaceous and shrub special status taxa than on special status trees. The trees which qualify as special status are the focus of other NRCA chapters, including Giant Sequoia and Intact Forests/Five-needle Pines. We do, however, present their mapped distributions and provide overviews of research related to the special status tree taxa in the Stressors section of this report.

California↗

Bayesian statistics for beginners: A step-by-step approach

Bayesian statistics is currently undergoing something of a renaissance. At its heart is a method of statistical inference in which Bayes' theorem is used to update the probability for a hypothesis as more evidence or information becomes available. It is an approach that is ideally suited to making initial assessments based on incomplete or imperfect information; as that information is gathered and disseminated, the Bayesian approach corrects or replaces the assumptions and alters its decision-making accordingly to generate a new set of probabilities. As new data/evidence becomes available the probability for a particular hypothesis can therefore be steadily refined and revised. It is very well-suited to the scientific method in general and is widely used across the social, biological, medical, and physical sciences. Key to this book's novel and informal perspective is its unique pedagogy, a question and answer approach that utilizes accessible language, humor, plentiful illustrations, and frequent reference to on-line resources. Bayesian Statistics for Beginners is an introductory textbook suitable for senior undergraduate and graduate students, professional researchers, and practitioners seeking to improve their understanding of the Bayesian statistical techniques they routinely use for data analysis in the life and medical sciences, psychology, public health, business, and other fields.

Book↗

Magnitude and Frequency of Rural Floods in the Southeastern United States, 2006: Volume 3, South Carolina

A multistate approach was used to update methods for estimating the magnitude and frequency of floods in rural, ungaged basins in South Carolina, Georgia, and North Carolina that are not substantially affected by regulation, tidal fluctuations, or urban development. Annual peak-flow data through September 2006 were analyzed for 943 streamgaging stations having 10 or more years of data on rural streams in South Carolina, Georgia, North Carolina, and adjacent parts of Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, and Virginia. Flood-frequency estimates were computed for the 943 stations by fitting the logarithms of annual peak flows for each station to a Pearson Type III distribution. As part of the computation of flood-frequency estimates for the stations, a new value for the generalized skew coefficient was developed using a Bayesian generalized least-squares regression model. Additionally, basin characteristics for these stations were computed by using a geographical information system and automated computer algorithms. Exploratory regression analyses using ordinary least-squares regression completed on the initial database of 943 gaged stations resulted in defining five hydrologic regions for South Carolina, Georgia, and North Carolina. Stations with drainage areas less than 1 square mile were removed from the database, and a procedure to examine for basin redundancy (based on drainage area and periods of record) also resulted in the removal of some stations from the regression database. Regional regression analysis, using generalized least-squares regression, was used to develop a set of predictive equations for estimating the 50-, 20-, 10-, 4-, 2-, 1-, 0.5-, and 0.2-percent chance exceedance flows for rural ungaged basins in Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina. Flood-frequency estimates and basin characteristics for 828 streamgaging stations were combined to form the final database used in the regional regression analysis. The final predictive equations are all functions of drainage area and percentage of the drainage basin within each hydrologic region. Average errors of prediction for these regression equations range from 34.0 to 47.7 percent. Peak-flow records at 25 regulated stations were assessed to determine if a flood-frequency analysis was appropriate. Based on those assessments, flood-frequency estimates are provided for three regulated stations. Annual peak-flow data are provided for the regulated stations in an appendix.

South Carolina↗

A "Region-Specific Model Adaptation (RSMA)" based training data method in large-scale land cover mapping

An accurate and historical land cover monitoring dataset for Alaska could provide fundamental information for a range of studies, such as conservation habitats, biogeochemical cycles, and climate systems, in this distinctive region. This research addresses challenges associated with the extraction of training data for timely and accurate land cover classifications in Alaska over longer time periods (e.g., greater than 10 years). Specifically, we designed the “Region-Specific Model Adaptation (RSMA)” method for training data. The method integrates land cover information from the National Land Cover Database (NLCD), LANDFIRE’s Existing Vegetation Type (EVT), and the National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) and machine learning techniques to generate robust training samples based on the Anderson Level II classification legend. The assumption of the method is that spectral signatures vary across regions because of diverse land surface compositions; however, despite these variations, there are consistent, collective land cover characteristics that span the entire region. Building upon this assumption, this research utilized the classification power of deep learning algorithms and the generalization ability of RSMA to construct a model for the RSMA method. Additionally, we interpreted existing vegetation plot information for land cover labels as validation data to reduce inconsistency in the human interpretation. Our validation results indicate that the RSMA method improved the quality of the training data derived solely from the NLCD by approximately 30% for the overall accuracy. The validation assessment also demonstrates that the RSMA method can generate reliable training data on large scales in regions that lack sufficient reliable data.

Remote Sensing↗

Ratcheting up rigor in wildlife management decision making

The wildlife management institution has been transforming to ensure relevance and positive conservation outcomes into the future. Continuous improvement of decision making is one aspect of this transformation, but many obstacles hinder systematic approaches to decision making. One can point to examples of formal decision science applications by state and federal agencies in the United States, but generally decision making is not as methodical as the biological, ecological, or social sciences that inform wildlife policy and management decisions. We describe our observations — based on first-hand experiences — with decision making in wildlife management, present reasons why making decisions is difficult, identify challenges faced by wildlife managers at various levels of governance, and address measures wildlife managers can employ to overcome these challenges. We acknowledge that no panacea, simple recipe or one-size-fits-all prescription exists for wildlife management decision making. Nevertheless, we hope the combination of (a) describing how a systematic framework for decision making can benefit stakeholders, managers and conservation outcomes and (b) providing specific suggestions for such a framework will encourage agencies to continue taking steps to improve decision making processes.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

Effects of an early mass-flowering crop on wild bee communities and traits in power line corridors vary with blooming plants and landscape context

Context Power line corridors have been repeatedly assessed as habitat for wild bees; however, few studies have examined them as bee habitat relative to nearby crop fields and surrounding landscape context. Objectives We surveyed bee communities in power line corridors near to and isolated from lowbush blueberry fields in two landscape contexts in Maine, U.S.A. We examined the influences of blooming plant abundance and diversity and bee life-history traits including sociality, nesting preference, and body size. Methods We surveyed wild bees and blooming plants in power line corridors from 2013 to 2015. We calculated landscape composition surrounding sites at multiple scales and gathered bee trait information from the literature. We assessed differences in bee communities owing to landscape context with generalized linear models. Results We collected 125 wild bee species and observed a rare plant-pollinator relationship within power line corridors. We found greater bee abundance and species richness throughout a complex, resource-rich landscape, while mass-flowering lowbush blueberry fields enhanced bee species richness only in a simple, resource-poor landscape. Landscape composition and blooming plant diversity varied with landscape context, though only landscape composition influenced bee communities. Solitary and ground-nesting species were more sensitive to landscape context than social or cavity-nesting species. Conclusions Power line corridors provide crucial refugia for crop pollinating wild bees in agricultural landscapes with resource-poor natural habitat, while bees may selectively forage in power line corridors within agricultural landscapes containing resource-rich natural habitat. We found high-quality forage within corridors; quantifying nesting resources could clarify corridor use by wild bees.

Maine↗

Extreme‐value geoelectric amplitude and polarization across the northeast United States

Maps are presented of extreme‐value geoelectric field amplitude and horizontal polarization for the Northeast United States. These maps are derived from geoelectric time series calculated for sites across the Northeast by frequency‐domain multiplication (time‐domain convolution) of 172 magnetotelluric impedance tensors, acquired during a survey, with decades‐long, 1‐min resolution time series of geomagnetic variation, acquired at three magnetic observatories. The maps show that, during intense magnetic storms, high geoelectric amplitude hazards are realized across electrically resistive, igneous and metamorphic rock of the Appalachian Mountains and the New England Highlands, while low geoelectric hazards are realized across electrically conductive, sedimentary rock of the Appalachian Plateau and the Mid‐Atlantic Coastal Plain. From statistical extrapolation, once‐per‐century (100‐year) geoelectric amplitudes are highest at a site in Virginia at 25.44 V/km (followed by a site in Maine at 21.75 V/km and a site in Connecticut at 19.39 V/km); 100‐year geoelectric amplitude exceeds 10 V/km at 12 sites across the northeast; geoelectric amplitude is lowest at a site in Virginia at 0.05 V/km. Average errors for these values are estimated to be about 38%, or much less than the more than 2 orders of magnitude range seen in geoelectric amplitudes from one survey site to another across the northeast. It is noteworthy that geoelectric fields tend to be most (least) polarized at locations with high (low) geoelectric hazard. Furthermore, geoelectric fields over the Appalachians tend to be polarized southeast‐to‐northwest, or generally in a direction orthogonal to the southwest‐to‐northeast geological strike. Results reported here inform utility companies in projects for evaluating and managing the response of power grid systems to the deleterious effects of geomagnetic disturbance.

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachuse↗