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Metabolic rhythms in flowing waters: An approach for classifying river productivity regimes

Although seasonal patterns of ecosystem productivity have been extensively described and analyzed with respect to their primary forcings in terrestrial and marine systems, comparatively little is known about these same processes in rivers. However, it is now possible to perform a large‐scale synthesis on the patterns and drivers of river productivity regimes because of the recent sensor advances allowing for near‐continuous estimates of river productivity. Here, we explore a dataset of 47 U.S. rivers to examine whether there are characteristic river productivity regimes. We use classification approaches to develop a typology of productivity regimes and then use these regimes to examine differences with respect to potential controls of productivity. We identified two distinct metabolic regimes, which we named Summer Peak and Spring Peak Rivers, within our dataset. These regimes meaningfully differed in both the timing and magnitude of productivity and were robust to different approaches to classification. We also found that several variables, including watershed area and characteristics of water temperature or discharge, were able to predict the class membership of these regimes with modest accuracy. Our results support the presence of characteristic metabolic regimes and suggests that these regimes may have common sets of environmental controls. We present classification as one approach to begin exploring the productivity regimes of rivers. The strength of our approach is that it fully leverages these newly available high‐frequency productivity estimates to create classes that can be used to draw inferences about how the controls of river productivity differ between or within systems.

Limnology and Oceanography↗

Tagger effects in aquatic telemetry: Short-term and delayed impacts of surgery in Atlantic salmon smolts

Objective An assumption of biotelemetry is that animal performance is unaffected by the tagging process and tag burden, yet this assumption is often untested or not thoroughly explored. Our objective was to explore how transmitter implantation procedures influenced Atlantic Salmon Salmo salar smolt survival and migratory performance. Methods We monitored radio-tagged smolts, first in the hatchery and then in a river with a receiver array. We assessed survival and in-river performance in relation to surgeon, surgery duration, processing order, and fish size. Results Mortality was 13.3% during an 8-day hatchery-observation but was higher for fish processed by one of two experienced surgeons (25% vs. 2%). Mortality peaked three days post-surgery and was higher for smaller fish and fish tagged during morning tagging sessions (compared to afternoons). The size effect changed over time, being greatest during the first two days post-surgery, and continuing thereafter at a diminished level. Fish performance once released into a river also differed between surgeons (migration initiation 66% vs. 82%; and to-lake migration success 22% vs 43%), and consistent with hatchery observations, fish tagged in the morning by one surgeon performed poorly once released. Conclusion We highlight immediate and lingering effects of surgical procedures on smolt survival that, if not accounted for, could bias inferences about the study population. Researchers should anticipate tagger effects during study design to ensure potential tagger effects (i.e., surgeon, order tagged, conditions during tagging) are balanced across study groups of interest. Testing for a fixed tagger effect in analyses may not always be adequate because a tagger effect may covary with processing order and fish size and may change over time.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

Adapting standardized trout monitoring to a changing climate for the upper Yellowstone River, Montana, USA

Objective Long‐term standardized monitoring programs are fundamental to assessing how fish populations respond to anthropogenic stressors. Standardized monitoring programs may need to adopt new methods to adapt to rapid environmental changes that are associated with a changing climate. In the upper Yellowstone River, Montana, biologists have used a standardized, mark–recapture monitoring protocol to annually estimate the abundance of trout since 1978 to assess population status and trends. However, within the past two decades, climate change has caused changes in discharge timing that have prevented standardized monitoring from occurring annually. Methods We investigated the feasibility of using two analytical methods, N‐mixture models and mean capture probability, for estimating the abundance of three trout species in the upper Yellowstone River using the historical long‐term data set; these methods allow abundance to be estimated when a mark–recapture estimate cannot be obtained due to hydrologic conditions. Result When compared with abundance estimates from mark–recapture methods, N‐mixture models most often resulted in negatively biased abundance estimates, whereas mean capture probability analyses resulted in positively biased abundance estimates. Additionally, N‐mixture models produced negatively biased estimates when tested against true abundance values from simulated data sets. The bias in the N‐mixture model estimates was caused by poor model fit and variation in capture probability. The bias in the mean capture probability estimates was caused by heterogeneity in capture probability, likely caused by variable environmental conditions, which were not accounted for in the models. Conclusion N‐mixture models and mean capture probability are not viable alternatives for estimating abundance in the upper Yellowstone River. Thus, exploring additional adaptations to sampling methodologies and analytical approaches, including models that require individually marked fish, will be valuable for this system. Climate change will undoubtedly necessitate changes to standardized sampling methods throughout the world; thus, developing alternative sampling and analytical methods will be important for maintaining the utility of long‐term data sets.

Montana↗

An interactive decision-making tool for evaluating biological and statistical standards of migrating fish survival past hydroelectric dams

Quantifying the downstream survival of migrating fish past dams is critical for conservation efforts. Regulators require assessments of survival as a condition of operation. Failure to meet an established survival standard may result in required operational or costly structural changes at a facility. Establishing the survival standard, as well as the rules of assessment, is a point of contention between regulators and operators. Management goals are based on biological criteria, but there are inherent statistical and probabilistic trade-offs when choosing a standard value and the method for assessment. We make a distinction between a “biological” goal (the conservation goal) and a “statistical” standard (a function of the biological goal, sample size, assessment method, and years of consecutive evaluation). An effective statistical standard maximizes true positives (passing the standard when the biological goal is being met) and true negatives (failing the standard when the goal is not being met), while minimizing false negatives and false positives. We explored the effects of sample size, true survival, and assessment methods on the probability of passing different statistical standards by simulating survival studies (simulating mark-recapture experiments). We observed a strong influence of assessment methods on the probability of making the right decision (true positive or true negative), especially when sample size, and recapture probability was low. As a support tool, we developed an interactive user interface to explore specific scenarios, and to aid communication among decision-makers.

River Research and Applications↗

Evaluating the efficacy of aerial infrared surveys to detect artificial polar bear dens

The need to balance economic development with impacts to Arctic wildlife has been a prominent subject since petroleum exploration began on the North Slope of Alaska, USA, in the late 1950s. The North Slope region includes polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) of the southern Beaufort Sea subpopulation, which has experienced a long-term decline in abundance. Pregnant polar bears dig dens in snow drifts during winter and are vulnerable to disturbance, as den abandonment and mortality of neonates may result. Maternal denning coincides with the peak season of petroleum exploration and construction, raising concerns that human activities may disrupt denning. To minimize disturbance of denning polar bears, aerial infrared (AIR) surveys are routinely used to search for dens within planned industry activity areas and that information is used to implement mitigation. Aerial infrared surveys target the heat signature emanating from dens. Despite use by industry for >15 years, the efficacy of AIR and the factors that impact its ability to detect dens remains uncertain. Here, we evaluate AIR using artificial dens and observers naïve to locations to estimate detection probability and its relationship with covariates including weather variables, den characteristics, infrared sensor and altitude, and survey order to identify potential evidence of in-flight observer learning occurring between surveys. In December 2019 we constructed 14 dens (each with an artificial heat source), and 11 control sites (disturbed sites without dens). Between December 2019 and January 2020, 3 survey crews flew 6 independent AIR surveys within the vicinity of dens and control sites and video-recorded AIR imagery. Observers identified putative dens either in flight or during post-flight review of recordings. We assessed detection probability with a simple Bayesian model using 3 subsets of data: 1) all detection/non-detection data; 2) detection/non-detection data restricted to instances where sample sites were confirmed to have been properly scanned by AIR during post-study verification (i.e., when den locations were known); and 3) all dens visible on the recorded imagery during post-study verification, even if they were not seen during the survey or during post-flight review. Subsets 1 and 2 most closely resembled den surveys flown for oil and gas industry and had detection probabilities of 0.15 (95% CI = 0.08–0.23) and 0.24 (95% CI = 0.13–0.37), respectively. Detection probability was 0.41 (95% CI = 0.25–0.58) for subset 3. Higher wind speeds and larger den volume negatively influenced detection probability. Our low detection rate compared to previous studies could partially be the result of differences in study design, such as survey flight patterns. Our results suggest that AIR, as it is currently used, is unlikely to detect most polar bear dens in surveyed areas. Resource managers who use AIR should consider a suite of additional methods (e.g., habitat mapping, probabilistic den distribution, AIR methodology improvements) for minimizing impacts of industry on denning polar bears.

Alaska↗

Antibody-producting cells correlated with body weight in juvenile Chinook salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha acclimated to optimal and elevated temperatures

The immune response of juvenile chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) ranging in weight from approximately 10 to 55 g was compared when the fish were acclimated to either 13 or 21° C. A haemolytic plaque assay was conducted to determine differences in the number of antibody-producing cells (APC) among fish of a similar age but different body weights. Regression analyses revealed significant increases in the number of APC with increasing body weight when fish were acclimated to either water temperature. These results emphasise the importance of standardising fish weight in immunological studies of salmonids before exploring the possible effects of acclimation temperatures.

Fish & Shellfish Immunology↗

Volcano crisis communication: Challenges and solutions in the 21st century

This volume, Observing the volcano world: volcanic crisis communication, focuses at the point where the ‘rubber hits the road’, where the world of volcano-related sciences and all its uncertainties meet with the complex and ever-changing dynamics of our society, wherever and whenever this may be. Core to the issues addressed in this book is the idea of how volcanic crisis communication operates in practice and in theory. This chapter provides an overview of the evolution of thinking around the importance of volcanic crisis communication over the last century, bringing together studies on relevant case studies. Frequently, the mechanisms by which volcanic crisis communication occurs are via a number of key tools employed including: risk assessment, probabilistic analysis, early-warning systems, all of which assist in the decision-making procedures; that are compounded by ever-changing societal demands and needs. This chapter outlines some of the key challenges faced in managing responses to volcanic eruptions since the start of the 20th century, to explore what has been effective, what lessons have been learnt from key events, and what solutions we can discover. Adopting a holistic approach, this chapter aims to provide a contextual background for the following chapters in the volume that explore many of the elements discussed here in further detail. Finally, we consider the future, as many chapters in this book bring together a wealth of new knowledge that will enable further insights for investigation, experimentation, and development of future volcanic crisis communication.

Book chapter↗

Fractals in petroleum geology and earth processes

In this unique volume, renowned experts discuss the applications of fractals in petroleum research-offering an excellent introduction to the subject. Contributions cover a broad spectrum of applications from petroleum exploration to production. Papers also illustrate how fractal geometry can quantify the spatial heterogeneity of different aspects of geology and how this information can be used to improve exploration and production results.

Book↗

The East African monsoon system: Seasonal climatologies and recent variations: Chapter 10

This chapter briefly reviews the complex climatological cycle of the East African monsoon system, paying special attention to its connection to the larger Indo-Pacific-Asian monsoon cycle. We examine the seasonal monsoon cycle, and briefly explore recent circulation changes. The spatial footprint of our analysis corresponds with the “Greater Horn of Africa” (GHA) region, extending from Tanzania in the south to Yemen and Sudan in the north. During boreal winter, when northeast trade winds flow across the northwest Indian Ocean and the equatorial moisture transports over the Indian Ocean exhibit strong westerly mean flows over the equatorial Indian Ocean, East African precipitation is limited to a few highland areas. As the Indian monsoon circulation transitions during boreal spring, the trade winds over the northwest Indian Ocean reverse, and East African moisture convergence supports the “long” rains. In boreal summer, the southwesterly Somali Jet intensifies over eastern Africa. Subsidence forms along the westward flank of this jet, shutting down precipitation over eastern portions of East Africa. In boreal fall, the Jet subsides, but easterly moisture transports support rainfall in limited regions of the eastern Horn of Africa. We use regressions with the trend mode of global sea surface temperatures to explore potential changes in the seasonal monsoon circulations. Significant reductions in total precipitable water are indicated in Kenya, Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Ethiopia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Yemen, with moisture transports broadly responding in ways that reinforce the climatological moisture transports over the Indian Ocean. Over Kenya, southern Ethiopia and Somalia, regressions with velocity potential indicate increased convergence aloft. Near the surface, this convergence appears to manifest as a surface high pressure system that modifies moisture transports in these countries as well as Uganda, Tanzania, Rwanda, and Burundi. An analysis of rainfall changes indicates significant declines in parts of Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Uganda, Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, and Yemen.

Book chapter↗

Information fusion in regularized inversion of tomographic pumping tests

In this chapter we investigate a simple approach to incorporating geophysical information into the analysis of tomographic pumping tests for characterization of the hydraulic conductivity (K) field in an aquifer. A number of authors have suggested a tomographic approach to the analysis of hydraulic tests in aquifers - essentially simultaneous analysis of multiple tests or stresses on the flow system - in order to improve the resolution of the estimated parameter fields. However, even with a large amount of hydraulic data in hand, the inverse problem is still plagued by non-uniqueness and ill-conditioning and the parameter space for the inversion needs to be constrained in some sensible fashion in order to obtain plausible estimates of aquifer properties. For seismic and radar tomography problems, the parameter space is often constrained through the application of regularization terms that impose penalties on deviations of the estimated parameters from a prior or background model, with the tradeoff between data fit and model norm explored through systematic analysis of results for different levels of weighting on the regularization terms. In this study we apply systematic regularized inversion to analysis of tomographic pumping tests in an alluvial aquifer, taking advantage of the steady-shape flow regime exhibited in these tests to expedite the inversion process. In addition, we explore the possibility of incorporating geophysical information into the inversion through a regularization term relating the estimated K distribution to ground penetrating radar velocity and attenuation distributions through a smoothing spline model. ?? 2008 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Studies in Computational Intelligence↗

Resource assessments, geologic deposit models, and offshore minerals with an example of heavy-mineral sands

A resource assessment method for offshore minerals based on descriptive and grade-tonnage models is proposed. Historical development and applications of this method are summarized. Based on this approach, descriptive and quantitative deposit models for strand-line titanium placer deposits have been developed. Descriptive statistics were also computed using the worldwide deposit data set upon which the grade-tonnage models are based. Certain guidelines and limitations in applying onshore titanium deposit models to offshore assessment and exploration must, however, be observed. The descriptive model points out the specific features of strandline titanium placer deposits which can be of use in selection of areas for exploration; the grade-tonnage models display the expected size distribution for this type of deposit. Used with an estimate of expected number of deposits, this information can be applied to quantify probable values associated with deposits of this type within a given area.

NATO Science Series↗

Science during crisis: the application of social science during major environmental crises

Historical and contemporary experience suggests that science plays an increasingly critical role in governmental and institutional responses to major environmental crises. Recent examples include major western wildfires (2009), the Deepwater Horizon oil spill (2010), the Fukushima nuclear accident (2011), and Hurricane Sandy (2012). The application of science during such crises has several distinctive characteristics, as well as essential requirements if it is to be useful to decision makers. these include scope conditions that include coupled natural/human systems, clear statement of uncertainties and limitations, description of cascading consequences, accurate sense of place, estimates of magnitude of impacts, identification of beneficiaries and those adversely affected, clarity and conciseness, compelling visualization and presentation, capacity to speak "truth to power", and direct access to decision makers. In this chapter, we explore the role and significance of science – including all relevant disciplines and focusing attention on the social sciences – in responding to major environmental crises. We explore several important questions: How is science during crisis distinctive? What social science is most useful during crises? What distinctive characteristics are necessary for social science to make meaningful contributions to emergency response and recovery? How might the social sciences be integrated into the strategic science needed to respond to future crises? The authors, both members of the Department of the Interior's innovative Strategic Sciences Group, describe broad principles of engagement as well as specific examples drawn from history, contemporary efforts (such as during the Deepwater Horizon oil spill), and predictions of environmental crises still to be confronted.

Book chapter↗

Volcanic rocks and processes of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge rift valley near 36 ° 49′ N

Eighty samples of submarine basaltic lava were sampled from an 8 km segment of the floor and walls of the inner rift valley of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge during the French American Mid-Ocean Undersea Study (project Famous). The samples were collected from outcrops and talus slopes by the three submersibles: Alvin, Archimede, and Cyana at water depths of about 2600 meters. The early formed mineral content of the pillow lavas' glassy margins enables classification of the rocks into 5 types: (1) olivine basalt, (2) picritic basalt, (3) plagioclase-olivine-pyroxene basalt, (4) aphyric basalt, and (5) plagioclase-rich basalt. Chemical and mineralogical study indicates that at least 4 types are directly interrelated and that types (1) and (2) are higher-temperature, primitive lavas, and types (3) and (4) are lower-temperature, differentiated lavas derived from the primitive ones by crystal-liquid differentiation. The plagioclase-rich basalts also have a chemical composition of their glass comparable to that of the most differentiated basalts (types 3 and 4) but they differ in their greater amount of early formed plagioclase (12–35%). In general, the mineralogical variation across the rift valley shows an assymetrical distribution of the major basalt types. Despite the mineralogical diversity of the early formed crystals, the chemistry of the basalt glasses indicates a symmetrical and a gradual compositional change across the rift valley. Based primarily on their chemistry, the rock types 1 and 2 occupy an axial zone 1.1 km wide and make up the central volcanic hills. Differentiated lavas (types 3, 4) occupy the margins and walls of the inner rift valley and also occur near the center of the rift valley between the central hills. FeO/MgO ratios of olivine and coexisting melt indicate that the average temperature of eruption was 40 ° C higher for the primitive melts (types 1 and 2). Aside from major elements trends, the higher temperature character of the primitive basalts is shown by their common content of chrome spinel. The thickness of manganese oxide and palagonite on glassy lava provide an estimate of age. In a general fashion the relative age of the various volcanic events follow the compositional zoning observed in the explored area. Most of the youngest samples are olivine basalt of the axial hills. Most older samples occur in the margins of the rift valley (West and N.E. part of explored area) but are significantly younger than the spreading age of the crust on which they are erupted. Intermediate lava types occur mainly east of the rift valley axis and in other areas where plagioclase—olivine—pyroxene basalt and aphyric basalt are present. The above relations indicate that the diverse lava types were erupted from a shallow, zoned magma chamber from fissures distributed over the width of the inner rift valley and elongate parallel to it. Differentiation was accomplished by cooling and crystallization of plagioclase, olivine, and clinopyroxene toward the margins of the chamber. The centrally located hills were built by the piling up of frequent eruption of mainly primitive lavas which also are the youngest flows. In contrast smaller and less frequent eruptions of more differentiated lavas were exposed on both sides of the rift valley axis.

Contributions to Mineralogy and Petrology↗

A procedure to estimate the parent population of the size of oil and gas fields as revealed by a study of economic truncation

An estimation technique has been derived to predict the number of small fields in a geologic play or basin. Historically, many small oil and gas fields went unreported because they were not economical. This led to an underestimation of the number of undiscovered small fields. A study of the distributions of reported oil and gas fields in well-explored areas suggests that the large fields when grouped into log base 2 size classes are geometrically distributed. Further, the number of small fields reported is a function of the cost of exploration and development. Thus, the population field-size distribution is conjectured to be log geometric in form. ?? 1983 Plenum Publishing Corporation.

Journal of the International Association for Mathe↗

One-level prediction-A numerical method for estimating undiscovered metal endowment

One-level prediction has been developed as a numerical method for estimating undiscovered metal endowment within large areas. The method is based on a presumed relationship between a numerical measure of geologic favorability and the spatial distribution of metal endowment. Metal endowment within an unexplored area for which the favorability measure is greater than a favorability threshold level is estimated to be proportional to the area of that unexplored portion. The constant of proportionality is the ratio of the discovered endowment found within a suitably chosen control region, which has been explored, to the area of that explored region. In addition to the estimate of undiscovered endowment, a measure of the error of the estimate is also calculated. One-level prediction has been used to estimate the undiscovered uranium endowment in the San Juan basin, New Mexico, U.S.A. A subroutine to perform the necessary calculations is included. ?? 1992 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources↗

Economics of mining law

Modern mining law, by facilitating socially and environmentally acceptable exploration, development, and production of mineral materials, helps secure the benefits of mineral production while minimizing environmental harm and accounting for increasing land-use competition. Mining investments are sunk costs, irreversibly tied to a particular mineral site, and require many years to recoup. Providing security of tenure is the most critical element of a practical mining law. Governments owning mineral rights have a conflict of interest between their roles as a profit-maximizing landowner and as a guardian of public welfare. As a monopoly supplier, governments have considerable power to manipulate mineral-rights markets. To avoid monopoly rent-seeking by governments, a competitive market for government-owned mineral rights must be created by artifice. What mining firms will pay for mineral rights depends on expected exploration success and extraction costs. Landowners and mining firms will negotlate respective shares of anticipated differential rents, usually allowing for some form of risk sharing. Private landowners do not normally account for external benefits or costs of minerals use. Government ownership of mineral rights allows for direct accounting of social prices for mineral-bearing lands and external costs. An equitable and efficient method is to charge an appropriate reservation price for surface land use, net of the value of land after reclamation, and to recover all or part of differential rents through a flat income or resource-rent tax. The traditional royalty on gross value of production, essentially a regressive income tax, cannot recover as much rent as a flat income tax, causes arbitrary mineral-reserve sterilization, and creates a bias toward development on the extensive margin where marginal environmental costs are higher. Mitigating environmental costs and resolving land-use conflicts require local evaluation and planning. National oversight ensures that the relative global avaliability of minerals and other values are considered, and can also promote adaptive efficiency by publicizing creative local solutions, providing technical support, and funding useful research. ?? 1995 Oxford University Press.

Nonrenewable Resources↗

Hydrothermal monazite and xenotime chemistry as genetic discriminators for intrusion-related and orogenic gold deposits: Implications for an orogenic origin of the Pogo gold deposit, Alaska

Attempts to geochemically distinguish between metamorphic-hydrothermal systems that form orogenic gold deposits and both reduced and oxidized magmatic-hydrothermal systems using isotopes or metal associations have proven ambiguous, particularly for orogenic gold and reduced intrusion-related gold systems. The absence of conclusive geochemical discriminators and the overlap in geologic characteristics have led to gold deposit models being potentially incorrectly applied, which in turn negatively affect regional mineral exploration and mine planning. In this study, in situ electron microprobe geochemical analyses of hydrothermal monazite and xenotime crystals associated with different types of gold-bearing deposits are shown to be effective geochemical discriminators. There are notable differences in mineral chemistry such as rare earth element (REE) profiles, total light REE, Dy, Er, Pr, Y, Nd/Sm, and La/Sm that distinguish monazite precipitated from metamorphic-hydrothermal fluids that form orogenic gold deposits and those precipitated from magmatic-hydrothermal fluids that form both porphyry Cu-Mo-Au and reduced intrusion-related gold deposits. Notable differences in overall xenotime abundances and concentrations of heavy REEs, Ca, and Sc are distinctive between the different deposit classes for xenotime. The origin of the controversially classified Pogo gold deposit, Tintina gold province, Alaska, which has been characterized as both a reduced intrusion-related and an orogenic gold deposit, is tested based upon the noted chemical differences associated with these hydrothermal phosphates. The findings of this study have implications for exploration and mine development in the Tintina gold province and other areas that contain deposits that are controversially classified as either orogenic or as magmatic-hydrothermal gold deposits.

Alaska↗

Population cycles are highly correlated over long time series and large spatial scales in two unrelated species: Greater sage-grouse and cottontail rabbits

Animal species across multiple taxa demonstrate multi-annual population cycles, which have long been of interest to ecologists. Correlated population cycles between species that do not share a predator–prey relationship are particularly intriguing and challenging to explain. We investigated annual population trends of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) and cottontail rabbits ( Sylvilagus sp.) across Wyoming to explore the possibility of correlations between unrelated species, over multiple cycles, very large spatial areas, and relatively southern latitudes in terms of cycling species. We analyzed sage-grouse lek counts and annual hunter harvest indices from 1982 to 2007. We show that greater sage-grouse, currently listed as warranted but precluded under the US Endangered Species Act, and cottontails have highly correlated cycles ( r = 0.77). We explore possible mechanistic hypotheses to explain the synchronous population cycles. Our research highlights the importance of control populations in both adaptive management and impact studies. Furthermore, we demonstrate the functional value of these indices (lek counts and hunter harvest) for tracking broad-scale fluctuations in the species. This level of highly correlated long-term cycling has not previously been documented between two non-related species, over a long time-series, very large spatial scale, and within more southern latitudes.

Wyoming↗