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USGS2022

Congruence among multiple indices of habitat preference for species facing human-induced rapid environmental change: A case study using the Brewer's sparrow

Accurate evaluations of habitat preference are key to understanding optimal conditions for wildlife survival and reproduction. Habitat selection, however, usually is evaluated using a single index of preference, and congruence among multiple, relevant indices of preference is examined rarely. We assessed the concordance between patterns of habitat preference using three different indices of breeding site preference in a migratory songbird. Specifically, we compared the chronology of territorial establishment, pair formation and reproductive initiation of the Brewer's sparrow ( Spizella breweri ) along a gradient of surface disturbance associated with natural gas development in Wyoming, USA during 2019. We expected all three indices to demonstrate a preference for breeding sites with less surface disturbance, where reproductive success typically is higher. By contrast, all indices suggested suboptimal preference with respect to surface disturbance, with some discrepancy among them. The chronology of settlement and pairing did not vary across the disturbance gradient, whereas nest initiation tended to occur earlier at sites with more disturbance. If the pattern of suboptimal selection of breeding sites that we identified is generalizable across other populations of migratory birds affected by energy development, the resultant lower fitness in those areas may exacerbate population declines. Our results suggest that traditional, single-index approaches to the study of habitat selection, if chosen carefully, may provide adequate inference on habitat preferences. Different metrics, however, can lead to at least subtle differences in patterns of habitat selection. The simultaneous examination of multiple indices of preference across a diversity of systems would help clarify the contexts under which preference metrics can become decoupled.

Wyoming↗

USGS2018

A tale of two wildfires; testing detection and prediction of invasive species distributions using models fit with topographic and spectral indices

Context Developing species distribution models (SDMs) to detect invasive species cover and evaluate habitat suitability are high priorities for land managers. Objectives We tested SDMs fit with different variable combinations to provide guidelines for future invasive species model development based on transferability between landscapes. Methods Generalized linear model, boosted regression trees, multivariate adaptive regression splines, and Random Forests were fit with location data for high cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ) cover in situ for two post-burn sites independently using topographic indices, spectral indices derived from multiple dates of Landsat 8 satellite imagery, or both. Models developed for one site were applied to the other, using independent cheatgrass cover data from the respective ex situ site to test model transferability. Results Fitted models were statistically robust and comparable when fit with at least 200 cover plots in situ and transferred to the ex situ site. Only the Random Forests models were robust when fit with a small number of cover plots in situ. Conclusions Our study indicated spectral indices can be used in SDMs to estimate species cover across landscapes (e.g., both within the same Landsat scene and in an adjacent Landsat scene). Important considerations for transferability include the model employed, quantity of cover data used to train/test the models, and phenology of the species coupled with the timing of imagery. The results also suggest that when cover data are limited, SDMs fit with topographic indices are sufficient for evaluating cheatgrass habitat suitability in new post-disturbance landscapes; however, spectral indices can provide a more robust estimate for detection based on local phenology.

Wyoming↗

USGS1988

Food availability controls seasonal cycle of growth in Macoma balthica (L.) in San Francisco Bay, California

A 2-yr field study of growth in the bivalve Macoma balthica (L.) at four locations in San Francisco Bay, California, U.S., showed that the timing and rate of growth (increase in shell length) were related to food supply. This clam feeds on both planktonic and benthic microalgae, depending on availability. Growth was apparently food-limited during some months, during one year more than the other, and at some locations more than others. Tissue-weight changes were also related to food availability. The heaviest animals were found in that year and at those locations with the highest chl a concentrations. Tissue-weight gains usually coincided with increased shell-growth rate or with reproductive development, although some large animals showed weight gain independent of both of these factors during periods with mid-range chl a levels. Weight losses coincided with spawning or periods of low growth rate, except at one station where, during a period when most animals were reproductively ripe, food concentrations were high, and shell growth was rapid, animals lost weight. This study failed to show a relation between salinity and the timing or rate of change of either shell length or tissue weight. The mild temperatures (10-23 ??C water temperature) of the area studied resulted in no growth inhibition due to low temperature, but there was some indication that the high air temperatures found in these intertidal areas limited growth rates. ?? 1988.

Journal of Experimental Marine Biology and Ecology↗

USGS2008

Monitoring waterbird abundance in wetlands: The importance of controlling results for variation in water depth

Wetland use by waterbirds is highly dependent on water depth, and depth requirements generally vary among species. Furthermore, water depth within wetlands often varies greatly over time due to unpredictable hydrological events, making comparisons of waterbird abundance among wetlands difficult as effects of habitat variables and water depth are confounded. Species-specific relationships between bird abundance and water depth necessarily are non-linear; thus, we developed a methodology to correct waterbird abundance for variation in water depth, based on the non-parametric regression of these two variables. Accordingly, we used the difference between observed and predicted abundances from non-parametric regression (analogous to parametric residuals) as an estimate of bird abundance at equivalent water depths. We scaled this difference to levels of observed and predicted abundances using the formula: ((observed - predicted abundance)/(observed + predicted abundance)) ?? 100. This estimate also corresponds to the observed:predicted abundance ratio, which allows easy interpretation of results. We illustrated this methodology using two hypothetical species that differed in water depth and wetland preferences. Comparisons of wetlands, using both observed and relative corrected abundances, indicated that relative corrected abundance adequately separates the effect of water depth from the effect of wetlands. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2003

Growth and survival of Escherichia coli and enterococci populations in the macro-alga Cladophora (Chlorophyta)

The macro-alga Cladophora glomerata is found in streams and lakes worldwide. High concentrations of Escherichia coli and enterococci have been reported in Cladophora along the Lake Michigan shore. The objective of this study was to determine if Cladophora supported growth of these indicator bacteria. Algal leachate readily supported in vitro multiplication of E. coli and enterococci, suggesting that leachates contain necessary growth-promoting substances. Growth was directly related to the concentration of algal leachate. E. coli survived for over 6 months in dried Cladophora stored at 4°C; residual E. coli grew after mat rehydration, reaching a carrying capacity of 8 log CFU g -1 in 48 h. Results of this study also show that the E. coli strains associated with Cladophora are highly related; in most instances they are genetically different from each other, suggesting that the relationship between E. coli and Cladophora may be casual. These findings indicate that Cladophora provides a suitable environment for indicator bacteria to persist for extended periods and to grow under natural conditions.

FEMS Microbiology Ecology↗

USGS2018

Macrobenthic infaunal communities associated with deep‐sea hydrocarbon seeps in the northern Gulf of Mexico

There are thousands of seeps in the deep ocean worldwide; however, many questions remain about their contributions to global biodiversity and the surrounding deep‐sea environment. In addition to being globally distributed, seeps provide several benefits to humans such as unique habitats, organisms with novel genes, and carbon regulation. The purpose of this study is to determine whether there are unique seep macrobenthic assemblages, by comparing seep and nonseep environments, different seep habitats, and seeps at different depths and locations. Infaunal community composition, diversity, and abundance were examined between seep and nonseep background environments and among three seep habitats (i.e., microbial mats, tubeworms, and soft‐bottom seeps). Abundances were higher at seep sites compared to background areas. Abundance and diversity also differed among microbial mat, tubeworm, and soft‐bottom seep habitats. Although seeps contained different macrobenthic assemblages than nonseep areas, infaunal communities were also generally unique for each seep. Variability was 75% greater within communities near seeps compared to communities in background areas. Thus, high variability in community structure characterized seep communities rather than specific taxa. The lack of similarity among seep sites supports the idea that there are no specific infauna that can be used as indicators of seepage throughout the northern Gulf of Mexico, at least at higher taxonomic levels.

Marine Ecology↗

USGS2015

Understory vegetation as an indicator for floodplain forest restoration in the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley, U.S.A.

In the Mississippi River Alluvial Valley (MAV), complete alteration of river-floodplain hydrology allowed for widespread conversion of forested bottomlands to intensive agriculture, resulting in nearly 80% forest loss. Governmental programs have attempted to restore forest habitat and functions within this altered landscape by the methods of tree planting (afforestation) and local hydrologic enhancement on reclaimed croplands. Early assessments identified factors that influenced whether planting plus tree colonization could establish an overstory community similar to natural bottomland forests. The extent to which afforested sites develop typical understory vegetation has not been evaluated, yet understory composition may be indicative of restored site conditions. As part of a broad study quantifying the ecosystem services gained from restoration efforts, understory vegetation was compared between 37 afforested sites and 26 mature forest sites. Differences in vegetation attributes for species growth forms, wetland indicator classes, and native status were tested with univariate analyses; floristic composition data were analyzed by multivariate techniques. Understory vegetation of restoration sites was generally hydrophytic, but species composition differed from that of mature bottomland forest because of young successional age and differing responses of plant growth forms. Attribute and floristic variation among restoration sites was related to variation in canopy development and local wetness conditions, which in turn reflected both intrinsic site features and outcomes of restoration practices. Thus, understory vegetation is a useful indicator of functional progress in floodplain forest restoration.

Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee↗

USGS2001

Experimental flood effects on the limnology of Lake Powell Reservoir, southwestern USA

In the spring of 1996, a nine-day test flood from Glen Canyon Dam involved the deepest and largest hypolimnetic withdrawals from the penstocks and the river outlet works (ROW) since 1986, interacting with ongoing hydrodynamic and stratification patterns to enhance freshening of the hypolimnion of Lake Powell reservoir and its tailwaters. Prior to the test flood, a six-year drought had produced a pronounced meromictic hypolimnion that was weakening from high inflow events in 1993 and 1995. Hypoxia, however, had continued to increase in the deepest portions of the reservoir. Over the course of the test flood, 0.893 km 3 were released from the ports located at and below the hypolimnetic chemocline. The increased discharge and mixing resulting from the test flood diminished the volume of this hypoxic and meromictic hypolimnion as far as 100 km uplake. This effect was reinforced by seasonal upwelling of hypolimnetic water at the dam and seasonal hydrologic patterns uplake. The timing and magnitude of the discharge maximized the release of the highest salinity and lowest dissolved oxygen (DO) water that typically occurs near the release structures of the dam annually. Subsequent high inflows and discharges in 1997 continued to freshen the hypolimnion. During the flood, large aerated discharges in the tailwaters briefly increased DO to above saturation but dampened diel fluctuations in pH and DO. Downstream ion concentration levels were elevated during the test flood but resumed an enhanced freshening trend following the lower hydrograph. The results indicate that dam operations, timed with predictable limnological events, can be used to manipulate tailwater and reservoir water quality.

Arizona, Utah↗

USGS2007

Seabirds as indicators of marine food supplies: Cairns revisited

In his seminal paper about using seabirds as indicators of marine food supplies, Cairns (1987, Biol Oceanogr 5:261–271) predicted that (1) parameters of seabird biology and behavior would vary in curvilinear fashion with changes in food supply, (2) the threshold of prey density over which birds responded would be different for each parameter, and (3) different seabird species would respond differently to variation in food availability depending on foraging behavior and ability to adjust time budgets. We tested these predictions using data collected at colonies of common murre Uria aalge and black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla in Cook Inlet, Alaska. (1) Of 22 seabird responses fitted with linear and non-linear functions, 16 responses exhibited significant curvilinear shapes, and Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) analysis indicated that curvilinear functions provided the best-fitting model for 12 of those. (2) However, there were few differences among parameters in their threshold to prey density, presumably because most responses ultimately depend upon a single threshold for prey acquisition at sea. (3) There were similarities and some differences in how species responded to variability in prey density. Both murres and kittiwakes minimized variability (CV < 15%) in their own body condition and growth of chicks in the face of high annual variability (CV = 69%) in local prey density. Whereas kittiwake breeding success (CV = 63%, r 2 = 0.89) reflected prey variability, murre breeding success did not (CV = 29%, r 2 < 0.00). It appears that murres were able to buffer breeding success by reallocating discretionary ‘loafing’ time to foraging effort in response (r 2 = 0.64) to declining prey density. Kittiwakes had little or no discretionary time, so fledging success was a more direct function of local prey density. Implications of these results for using ‘seabirds as indicators’ are discussed.

Marine Ecology Progress Series↗

USGS2024

Effects of elevated pCO2 on bioenergetics and disease susceptibility in Pacific herring Clupea pallasii

Ocean acidification can affect the immune responses of fish, but effects on pathogen susceptibility remain uncertain. Pacific herring Clupea pallasii were reared from hatch under 3 CO 2 partial pressure ( p CO 2 ) treatments (ambient, ∼650 µatm; intermediate, ∼1500 µatm; high, ∼3000 µatm) through metamorphosis (98 d) to evaluate the effects of ocean acidification on bioenergetics and susceptibility to an endemic viral disease. Mortality from viral hemorrhagic septicemia (VHS) was comparable between herring reared under ambient and intermediate p CO 2 (all vulnerability testing at ambient p CO 2 ). By contrast, fish reared under high p CO 2 experienced significantly higher rates of VHS mortality, and the condition factor of survivors was significantly lower than in the other p CO 2 treatments. However, the prevalence of infection among survivors was not influenced by p CO 2 treatment. Pre-flexion larval development was not affected by elevated p CO 2 , as growth rate, energy use, and feeding activity were comparable across treatments. Similarly, long-term growth (14 wk) was not affected by chronic exposure to elevated p CO 2 . Herring reared under both elevated p CO 2 treatments showed an average reduction in swimming speed; however, wide intra-treatment variability rendered the effect nonsignificant. This study demonstrates that the VHS susceptibility and bioenergetics of larval and post-metamorphic Pacific herring are not affected by near-future ocean acidification predicted for coastal systems of the North Pacific. However, increased susceptibility to VHS in fish reared under 3000 µatm p CO 2 indicates potential health and fitness consequences from extreme acidification.

Marine Ecology Progress Series.↗

USGS2008

Does urbanization influence the spatial ecology of Gila monsters in the Sonoran Desert?

To assess whether urbanization influences the spatial ecology of a rare and protected venomous reptilian predator, the Gila monster Heloderma suspectum , we compared home range (HR) size and movement parameters at three sites varying in degree of urbanization in the Sonoran Desert. We predicted that the urban population of H. suspectum would exhibit smaller HRs, avoid human structures and show less movement. Multivariate analysis indicated that males generally exhibited larger HRs and had higher movement rates and activity levels than females at all three sites. Contrary to our predictions, however, HR size and movement parameters did not vary across the sites in relation to the level of urbanization. At the urban site, individuals often crossed narrow roads and regularly used artificial structures as refuges for extended periods. Furthermore, the population sex ratio at the urban site was female-biased, consistent with the expectation that occupation of larger HRs and higher movement rates results in higher mortality for males in urbanized areas. Gila monsters did not appear to alter certain aspects of their spatial ecology in response to low levels of human activity but additional work will be required to assess population viability and possible effects in the long term and with higher levels of urbanization.

Arizona↗

USGS2022

Spatially integrating microbiology and geochemistry to reveal complex environmental health issues: Anthrax in the contiguous United States

Maxent models were run using the B. anthracis presence data and/or the animal outbreak presence data. Models run using the animal outbreak data alone utilized two scales: the Outbreak State scale which included only states reporting animal anthrax outbreaks from 2001 to 2013 and the National scale which included all states in the contiguous United States. Three iterations of the environmental data were used and included the Sample Location dataset which utilized the environmental variable data with assigned latitude and longitude locations from the USGS NASGLP project; the Normalized dataset which scaled the environmental variables so that the values fell between 0 and 1; and the Interpolated dataset which provided an interpolation of the environmental variables averaged for each county and assigned to a point for that county at the centroid (rather than using the NASGLP latitude and longitude location). Two metrics were used to measure model performance including the widely used area under the curve (AUC) and an alternative method, the True Skill Statistic (TSS). The AUC gives the probability that a randomly chosen presence location has been correctly ranked higher than the absence/background site. AUC values at 0.5 or lower mean the ranking is no better than random, while the AUC values nearer to 1 mean the model is a better predictor. The TSS provides a comparison of how well the background predictions made by the model match the model results at the test dataset (presence) locations. TSS values near +1 means the model approaches perfect agreement, while values near −1 indicate the model is no better than random. Maxent models to determine the influence of environmental factors on the B. anthracis distribution using the PCR data yielded a low TSS, which suggested the model might be underfitting the data. This was not surprising due to the difficulty in recovering B. anthracis in soil samples as well as the samples themselves being discrete in nature and only capturing a snapshot in time. Therefore, the distribution of B. anthracis and its niche in the contiguous United States could not be determined in this study. However, efforts to investigate environmental factors that would have a higher potential of supporting an anthrax outbreak in wildlife and livestock yielded better results. Results showed that most of the Maxent models in this study performed best when using the Outbreak State scale. When the models were scaled up to the National scale, model performance declined, except for the Normalized variable dataset. At the Outbreak State scale, a large proportion of the area was predicted to be of higher probability for wildlife/livestock anthrax outbreaks, and the statistical measures assumed the model was underfitting the data. The model with the highest AUC and TSS scores for this study was the Outbreak State scale using Sample Location dataset (AUC = 0.918 and TSS = 0.82). Some of the variables found to be closely related to the occurrence of B. anthracis in this study included pH, drainage potential, and concentration of elements including Na, Ca, Sr, and Mg, which have also been found to be related to animal outbreaks or to the occurrence of B. anthracis in previous studies. The models in the current study indicated possible regions that have not had recent wildlife/livestock anthrax outbreaks but contained environmental conditions that could potentially support an outbreak if one were to occur (Michigan and Maine). This work provides an extension to the use of ecological niche modeling to outbreak potential in livestock/wildlife in the United States because it utilizes additional soil geochemistry data and has shown that further validation techniques, such as the TSS, should be considered in addition to AUC. Results from this study could be used by animal and public health officials to identify areas with a higher potential for anthrax outbreak in wildlife and livestock due to naturally occurring soil and environmental conditions.

Book chapter↗

USGS2021

Evaluating the impact of watershed development and climate change on stream ecosystems: A Bayesian network modeling approach

A continuous-variable Bayesian network (cBN) model is used to link watershed development and climate change to stream ecosystem indicators. A graphical model, reflecting our understanding of the connections between climate change, weather condition, loss of natural land cover, stream flow characteristics , and stream ecosystem indicators is used as the basis for selecting flow metrics for predicting macroinvertebrate-based indicators. Selected flow metrics were then linked to variables representing watershed development and climate change. We fit the model to data from two river basins in southeast US and the resulting model was used to simulate future stream ecological conditions using projected future climate and development scenarios. The three climate models predicted varying ecological condition trajectories, but similar worst-case ecological conditions. The established modeling approach couples mechanistic understanding with field data to develop predictions of management-relevant variables across a heterogeneous landscape. We discussed the transferability of the modeling approach.

North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia↗

USGS2002

A landscape ecology approach to assessing development impacts in the tropics: A geothermal energy example in Hawaii

Geographic information systems (GIS) are increasingly being used in environmental impact assessments (EIA) because GIS is useful for analysing spatial impacts of various development scenarios. Spatially representing these impacts provides another tool for landscape ecology in environmental and geographical investigations by facilitating analysis of the effects of landscape patterns on ecological processes and examining change over time. Landscape ecological principles are applied in this study to a hypothetical geothermal development project on the Island of Hawaii. Some common landscape pattern metrics were used to analyse dispersed versus condensed development scenarios and their effect on landscape pattern. Indices of fragmentation and patch shape did not appreciably change with additional development. The amount of forest to open edge, however, greatly increased with the dispersed development scenario. In addition, landscape metrics showed that a human disturbance had a greater simplifying effect on patch shape and also increased fragmentation than a natural disturbance. The use of these landscape pattern metrics can advance the methodology of applying GIS to EIA.

Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography↗

USGS2021

Multi‐constrained catchment scale optimization of groundwater abstraction using linear programming

Due to increasing water demands globally, freshwater ecosystems are under constant pressure. Groundwater resources, as the main source of accessible freshwater, are crucially important for irrigation worldwide. Over‐abstraction of groundwater leads to declines in groundwater levels; consequently, the groundwater inflow to streams decreases. The reduction in base flow and alteration of the stream flow regime can potentially have an adverse impact on groundwater‐dependent ecosystems. A spatially distributed, coupled groundwater‐surface water model can simulate the impacts of groundwater abstraction on aquatic ecosystems. A constrained optimization algorithm and a simulation model in combination can provide an objective tool for the water practitioner to evaluate the interplay between economic benefits of groundwater abstractions and requirements to environmental flow. In this study, a holistic catchment‐scale groundwater abstraction optimization framework has been developed that allows for a spatially explicit optimization of groundwater abstraction, while fulfilling a pre‐defined maximum allowed reduction of stream flow (base flow (Q95) or median flow (Q50)) as constraint criteria for 1484 stream locations across the catchment. A balanced K‐Means clustering method was implemented to reduce the computational burden of the optimization. The model parameters and observation uncertainties calculated based on Bayesian linear theory allow for a risk assessment on the optimized groundwater abstraction values. The results from different optimization scenarios indicated that using the linear programming optimization algorithm in conjunction with integrated models provides valuable information for guiding the water practitioners in designing an effective groundwater abstraction plan with the consideration of environmental flow criteria important for the ecological status of the entire system.

Groundwater↗

USGS2015

Linking dynamic habitat selection with wading bird foraging distributions across resource gradients

Species distribution models (SDM) link species occurrence with a suite of environmental predictors and provide an estimate of habitat quality when the variable set captures the biological requirements of the species. SDMs are inherently more complex when they include components of a species' ecology such as conspecific attraction and behavioral flexibility to exploit resources that vary across time and space. Wading birds are highly mobile, demonstrate flexible habitat selection, and respond quickly to changes in habitat quality; thus serving as important indicator species for wetland systems. We developed a spatio-temporal, multi-SDM framework using Great Egret ( Ardea alba ), White Ibis ( Eudocimus albus ), and Wood Stork ( Mycteria Americana ) distributions over a decadal gradient of environmental conditions to predict species-specific abundance across space and locations used on the landscape over time. In models of temporal dynamics, species demonstrated conditional preferences for resources based on resource levels linked to differing temporal scales. Wading bird abundance was highest when prey production from optimal periods of inundation was concentrated in shallow depths. Similar responses were observed in models predicting locations used over time, accounting for spatial autocorrelation. Species clustered in response to differing habitat conditions, indicating that social attraction can co-vary with foraging strategy, water-level changes, and habitat quality. This modeling framework can be applied to evaluate the multi-annual resource pulses occurring in real-time, climate change scenarios, or restorative hydrological regimes by tracking changing seasonal and annual distribution and abundance of high quality foraging patches.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2007

Multiple stressors in amphibian communities: Effects of chemical contamination, bullfrogs, and fish

A leading hypothesis of amphibian population declines is that combinations of multiple stressors contribute to declines. We examined the role that chemical contamination, competition, and predation play singly and in combination in aquatic amphibian communities. We exposed larvae of American toads (Bufo americanus), southern leopard frogs (Rana sphenocephala), and spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum) to overwintered bullfrog tadpoles (R. catesbeiana), bluegill sunfish (Lepomis macrochirus), the insecticide carbaryl, and ammonium nitrate fertilizer in 1000-L mesocosms. Most significantly, our study demonstrated that the presence of multiple factors reduced survival of B. americanus and A. maculatum and lengthened larval periods of R. sphenocephala. The presence of bluegill had the largest impact on the community; it eliminated B. americanus and A. maculatum and reduced the abundance of R. sphenocephala. Chemical contaminants had the second strongest effect on the community with the insecticide, reducing A. maculatum abundance by 50% and increasing the mass of anurans (frogs and toads) at metamorphosis; the fertilizer positively influenced time and mass at metamorphosis for both anurans and A. maculatum. Presence of overwintered bullfrogs reduced mass and increased time to metamorphosis of anurans. While both bluegill and overwintered bullfrog tadpoles had negative effects on the amphibian community, they performed better in the presence of one another and in contaminated habitats. Our results indicate that predicting deleterious combinations from single-factor effects may not be straightforward. Our research supports the hypothesis that combinations of factors can negatively impact some amphibian species and could contribute to population declines. ?? 2007 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2015

Combined effects of climate, predation, and density dependence on Greater and Lesser Scaup population dynamics

An understanding of species relationships is critical in the management and conservation of populations facing climate change, yet few studies address how climate alters species interactions and other population drivers. We use a long-term, broad-scale data set of relative abundance to examine the influence of climate, predators, and density dependence on the population dynamics of declining scaup ( Aythya ) species within the core of their breeding range. The state-space modeling approach we use applies to a wide range of wildlife species, especially populations monitored over broad spatiotemporal extents. Using this approach, we found that immediate snow cover extent in the preceding winter and spring had the strongest effects, with increases in mean snow cover extent having a positive effect on the local surveyed abundance of scaup. The direct effects of mesopredator abundance on scaup population dynamics were weaker, but the results still indicated a potential interactive process between climate and food web dynamics (mesopredators, alternative prey, and scaup). By considering climate variables and other potential effects on population dynamics, and using a rigorous estimation framework, we provide insight into complex ecological processes for guiding conservation and policy actions aimed at mitigating and reversing the decline of scaup.

Ecological Applications↗