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Surface-Water Quantity and Quality of the Upper Milwaukee River, Cedar Creek, and Root River Basins, Wisconsin, 2004

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Southeastern Wisconsin Regional Planning Commission (SEWRPC), collected discharge and water-quality data at nine sites in previously monitored areas of the upper Milwaukee River, Cedar Creek, and Root River Basins, in Wisconsin from May 1 through November 15, 2004. The data were collected for calibration of hydrological models that will be used to simulate how various management strategies will affect the water quality of streams. The data also will support SEWRPC and Milwaukee Metropolitan Sewerage District (MMSD) managers in development of the SEWRPC Regional Water Quality Management Plan and the MMSD 2020 Facilities Plan. These management plans will provide a scientific basis for future management decisions regarding development and maintenance of public and private waste-disposal systems. In May 2004, parts of the study area received over 13 inches of precipitation (3.06 inches is normal). In June 2004, most of the study area received between 7 and 11 inches of rainfall (3.56 inches is normal). This excessive rainfall caused flooding throughout the study area and resultant high discharges were measured at all nine monitoring sites. For example, the mean daily discharge recorded at the Cedar Creek site on May 27, 2004, was 2,120 cubic feet per second. This discharge ranked ninth of the largest 10 mean daily discharges in the 75-year record, and was the highest discharge recorded since March 30, 1960. Discharge records from continuous monitoring on the Root River Canal near Franklin since October 1, 1963, indicated that the discharge recorded on May 23, 2004, ranked second highest on record, and was the highest discharge recorded since March 4, 1974. Water-quality samples were taken during two base-flow events and six storm events at each of the nine sites. Analysis of water-quality data indicated that most concentrations of dissolved oxygen, biological oxygen demand, fecal coliform bacteria, chloride, suspended solids, nitrate plus nitrite nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen, Kjeldahl nitrogen, total phosphorus, dissolved orthophosphorus, total copper, particulate mercury, dissolved mercury, particulate methylmercury, dissolved methylmercury, and total zinc were below U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and State of Wisconsin water-quality standards at all sites, with the exception of dissolved oxygen at the Kewaskum, Farmington, Root River Canal, Root River Racine, and Root River Mouth sites. Each of these sites had from several days to several weeks of daily average dissolved oxygen concentrations below the 5 milligrams per liter State of Wisconsin standard for aquatic life. The lowest dissolved oxygen concentrations were measured at the heavily urbanized Root River Mouth site in downtown Racine, Wisconsin, where elevated concentrations of ammonia may have contributed to oxygen consumption during oxidation of ammonia to nitrate. Additionally, the maximum concentrations of copper in several Root River samples exceeded draft USEPA Ambient Water-Quality Criteria (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2003) for acute toxicity to several species of aquatic organisms. Substantial water-quality changes were not correlated with hydrologic changes at any of the nine sites. Base-flow water-quality was generally indistinguishable from that sampled during storm events. The sparsely developed upper Milwaukee River and Cedar Creek Basins had relatively low ranges of contamination for all laboratory-reported parameters. For all nine sites, the highest reported concentrations of chloride (216 mg/L), total phosphorus (0.627 mg/L), ortho-phosphorus (0.136 mg/L), nitrate plus nitrate (9.32 mg/L), and copper (38 ?g/L) were reported for samples collected at the Root River Canal site. The highest concentrations of fecal coliforms (3,600 colonies per 100 mL) and Escherichia coli (2,300 colonies per 100 mL) were reported in samples collected at Kewaskum. The highest concentrations of s

Open-File Report↗

Investigating the effects of land use and land cover on the relationship between moisture and reflectance using Landsat Time Series

To better understand the Earth system, it is important to investigate the interactions between precipitation, land use/land cover (LULC), and the land surface, especially vegetation. An improved understanding of these land-atmosphere interactions can aid understanding of the climate system and modeling of time series satellite data. Here, we investigate the effect of precipitation and LULC on the reflectance of the land surface in the northern U.S. Great Plains. We utilize time series satellite data from the 45 year Landsat archive. The length of the Landsat record allows for analysis of multiple periods of drought and wet conditions (reflecting climate, as well as weather), such that the precipitation-reflectance relationship can be investigated robustly for every individual pixel in the study area. The high spatial resolution of Landsat (30 m) allows for investigation of spatial patterns in weather (i.e., precipitation extremes) interactions with land surface reflectance at the scale of individual fields. Weather history is represented by a drought index that describes effective moisture availability, the Standardized Precipitation and Evaporation Index (SPEI). We find that effective moisture has a robust and consistent effect on reflectance over many types of land cover, with ∼90% of all pixels having significantly ( p &lt; 0.01 "> p < 0.01 ) higher visible reflectance during dry periods than during wet, occurring in nearly all regional, temporal, and LULC categories investigated. In grassland, the relationship is especially strong; there is an average reflectance increase of more than a third between very wet and very dry conditions (red band), and ∼99% of pixels have a significant relationship. In cropland, the effective moisture-reflectance relationship is more variable, suggesting that management decisions are an important factor in cropland-reflectance relationships.

North Dakota, South Dakota↗

Modeling the spatial distribution of carcasses of eagles killed by wind turbines

Currently, the US Fish and Wildlife Service makes eagle permitting and management decisions nationwide based on a limited understanding of the impacts of wind power generation on eagles, and the factors that influence risk at a given facility. Accurate estimates of eagle mortality at wind power facilities form the basis for comparing the magnitudes of mortality rates in different areas and for measuring the benefits of proposed methods of minimizing the collision-caused impacts to eagle populations. Simple counts of observed eagle carcasses at wind facilities are almost certainly underestimates of the true mortality because fatalities can be removed by scavengers, be missed by searchers, or fall outside searched areas. For the latter, models of relative carcass density as a function of distance from the turbine can be fit to observed carcass locations and used to estimate the proportion of carcasses expected to land within an area of any configuration beneath a turbine. In the USA, however, it has been difficult to estimate these models for large birds such as Bald Eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) and Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ) due to inadequate numbers of dead eagles found at any single facility. In this case, analysis of a surrogate species might be useful to inform carcass distributions. We chose to model the carcass distribution of White-tailed Eagles ( Haliaeetus albicilla ) in Norway as an informative surrogate for Bald Eagles and Golden Eagles in the USA. Our three best-fitting parametric models were very consistent in estimating that 50% (95% CI: 40–60%) of White-tailed Eagle carcasses land within approximately 42 m of the turbines that had 70-m hubs and approximately 40-m blades. Although our models were fit to data from White-tailed Eagles and not Bald or Golden Eagles, applying these models when calculating mortality impacts of wind developments on both eagle species will likely improve the accuracy of post-construction mortality estimates, particularly at sites where substantial areas may be unsearchable. Accurate post-construction mortality estimates can inform pre-construction fatality prediction models. Resource managers can determine whether their conditions are sufficiently similar to those we modeled to warrant the use of these models for Bald and Golden Eagle carcass distributions.

Journal of Raptor Research↗

SMaRT: A science-based tiered framework for common ravens

Large-scale increases and expansion of common raven ( Corvus corax ; raven) populations are occurring across much of North America, leading to increased negative consequences for livestock and agriculture, human health and safety, and sensitive species conservation. We describe a science-based adaptive management framework that incorporates recent quantitative analyses and mapping products for addressing areas with elevated raven numbers and minimizing potential adverse impacts to sensitive species, agricultural damage, and human safety. The framework comprises 5 steps: (1) desktop analysis; (2) field assessments; (3) comparison of raven density estimates to an ecological threshold (in terms of either density or density plus distance to nearest active or previous nest); (4) prescribing management options using a 3-tiered process (i.e., habitat improvements, subsidy reductions, and direct actions using StallPOPd.V4 software); and (5) post-management monitoring. The framework is integrated within the Science-based Management of Ravens Tool (SMaRT), a web-based application outfitted with a user-friendly interface that guides managers through each step to develop a fully customized adaptive plan for raven management. In the SMaRT interface, users can: (1) interact with pre-loaded maps of raven occurrence and density and define their own areas of interest within the Great Basin to delineate proposed survey or treatment sites; (2) enter site-level density estimates from distance sampling methods or perform estimation of raven densities using the rapid assessment protocol that we provide; (3) compare site-level density estimates to an identified ecological threshold; and (4) produce a list of potential management options for their consideration. The SMaRT supports decision-making by operationalizing scientific products for raven management and facilitates realization of diverse management goals including sensitive species conservation, protection of livestock and agriculture, safeguarding human health, and addressing raven overabundance and expansion. We illustrate the use of the framework through SMaRT using an example of greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ) conservation efforts within the Great Basin, USA.

California, Idaho, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

Rigorously valuing the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Maria on coastal hazard risks in Florida and Puerto Rico

The degradation of coastal habitats, particularly coral reefs, raises risks by increasing the exposure of coastal communities to flooding hazards. In the United States, the physical protective services provided by coral reefs were recently assessed in social and economic terms, with the annual protection provided by U.S. coral reefs off the coasts of the State of Florida and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico estimated to be more than 9,800 people and $859 million (2010 U.S. dollars). Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017 caused widespread damage to coral reefs in the State of Florida and the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico. These damages were measured in post-storm surveys of reefs and assessed in terms of their impact on reef condition and height, which are critical parameters for evaluating the coastal defense benefits of reefs. We combined engineering, ecologic, geospatial, social, and economic data and tools to value the increased risks in Florida and Puerto Rico from hurricane-induced damages to their adjacent coral reefs. We followed risk-based valuation approaches to map flooding at 10-square-meter resolution along all 980 kilometers of Florida and Puerto Rico’s reef-lined shorelines considering reef condition before (undamaged) and after (damaged) the 2017 hurricanes. We quantified the coastal flood risk increase caused by the hurricane-induced damage to the coral reefs using the latest information from the U.S. Census Bureau, Federal Emergency Management Agency, and Bureau of Economic Analysis for return-interval storm events. Using the damages associated with each storm probability, we also calculated the change in annual expected damages, a measure of the annual protection lost because of the reef damage caused by the 2017 hurricanes. We found that the damages to the coral reefs off Florida and Puerto Rico from Hurricanes Irma and Maria increased future risks significantly. In particular, we estimated the protection lost by Florida and Puerto Rico’s coral reefs from the 2017 hurricanes to result in: Increased flooding to more than 10.72 square kilometers (4.14 square miles) of land annually; Increased flooding affecting more than 4,300 people annually; Increased direct damages of more than $57.2 million to more than 1,800 buildings annually; and Increased indirect damages to more $124.3 million in economic activity owing to housing and business damage annually. Thus, the annual value of increased flood risk caused by the damage to Florida and Puerto Rico’s coral reefs from hurricanes in 2017 is more than 4,300 people and $181.5 mil-lion (2010 U.S. dollars) in economic impacts. These data provide stakeholders and decision makers with a spatially explicit, rigorous valuation of how, where, and when the damage from the 2017 hurricanes decreased critical coastal storm flood reduction benefits to Florida and Puerto Rico’s coral reefs. These results help identify areas where reef management, recovery, and restoration could potentially help reduce the risk to, and increase the resiliency of, Florida and Puerto Rico’s coastal communities.

Florida↗

An integrated analysis for estimation of survival, growth, and movement of unmarked juvenile anadromous fish

Managers invest substantial resources to promote recovery of declining anadromous fish stocks. Recovery strategies are manifold and often include management actions intended to stimulate somatic growth, increase in-river survival, and motivate juvenile outmigration during favorable environmental conditions. Evaluating the efficacy of these management actions is difficult, however, because monitoring data that explicitly track individuals from egg deposition to juvenile outmigration are typically lacking. We developed an integrated population model that links two different and often collected types of anadromous fish monitoring data: spawning ground surveys and rotary screw trap juvenile catch data. The integrated model accounts for incomplete detection and uses the two sources of data to estimate juvenile demographic parameters in a multistate framework. We evaluated the model's performance using simulated data under a range of conditions typically encountered in similar surveys. Simulation results indicated that the model estimated juvenile survival, growth, and movement with no-to-minimal bias (i.e., ≥ 50 % of simulations ± 0–0.05). As an example case study, we fit the model to empirical fall-run Chinook Salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) monitoring data collected in California's Central Valley, U.S.A. In doing so, we evaluated the influence of environmental conditions (e.g., discharge, water temperature) and habitat availability on juvenile demographic rates. We demonstrated that through our integrated approach we could estimate state transition probabilities that are typically inestimable for naturally produced, unmarked juvenile fish when using traditional statistical approaches to analyze these types of monitoring data. Furthermore, the structure of our model can serve as a useful foundation for decision-support models within adaptive management programs by directly linking management actions, decision-support-model predictions, and monitoring.

California↗

An empirical assessment of which inland floods can be managed

Riverine flooding is a significant global issue. Although it is well documented that the influence of landscape structure on floods decreases as flood size increases, studies that define a threshold flood-return period, above which landscape features such as topography, land cover and impoundments can curtail floods, are lacking. Further, the relative influences of natural versus built features on floods is poorly understood. Assumptions about the types of floods that can be managed have considerable implications for the cost-effectiveness of decisions to invest in transforming land cover (e.g., reforestation) and in constructing structures (e.g., storm-water ponds) to control floods. This study defines parameters of floods for which changes in landscape structure can have an impact. We compare nine flood-return periods across 31 watersheds with widely varying topography and land cover in the southeastern United States, using long-term hydrologic records (&ge;20 years). We also assess the effects of built flow-regulating features (best management practices and artificial water bodies) on selected flood metrics across urban watersheds. We show that landscape features affect magnitude and duration of only those floods with return periods &le;10 years, which suggests that larger floods cannot be managed effectively by manipulating landscape structure. Overall, urban watersheds exhibited larger (270 m 3 /s) but quicker (0.41 days) floods than non-urban watersheds (50 m 3 /s and 1.5 days). However, urban watersheds with more flow-regulating features had lower flood magnitudes (154 m 3 /s), but similar flood durations (0.55 days), compared to urban watersheds with fewer flow-regulating features (360 m 3 /s and 0.23 days). Our analysis provides insight into the magnitude, duration and count of floods that can be curtailed by landscape structure and its management. Our findings are relevant to other areas with similar climate, topography, and land use, and can help ensure that investments in flood management are made wisely after considering the limitations of landscape features to regulate floods.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

Technical review of managed underground storage of water study of the upper Catherine Creek watershed, Union County, northeastern Oregon

Because of water diversions during summer, flow in Catherine Creek, a tributary to the Grande Ronde River in northeastern Oregon, is insufficient to sustain several aquatic species for which the stream is listed as critical habitat. A feasibility study for managed underground storage (MUS) in the upper Catherine Creek watershed in Union County, Oregon, was undertaken by Anderson Perry and Associates, Inc., to address the issue of low flows in summer. The results of the study were released as a report titled “Upper Catherine Creek Storage Feasibility Study for Grande Ronde Model Watershed,” which evaluated the possibility of diverting Catherine Creek streamflow during winter (when stream discharge is high), storing the water by infiltration or injection into an aquifer adjacent to the stream, and discharging the water back to the stream in summer to augment low flows. The method of MUS would be accomplished using either (1) aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) that allows for the injection of water that meets drinking-water-quality standards into an aquifer for later recovery and use, or (2) artificial recharge (AR) that involves the intentional addition of water diverted from another source to a groundwater reservoir. Concerns by resource managers that the actions taken to improve water availability for upper Catherine Creek be effective, cost-efficient, long-term, and based on sound analysis led the National Fish and Wildlife Foundation to request that the U.S. Geological Survey conduct an independent review and evaluation of the feasibility study. This report contains the results of that review. The primary objectives of the Anderson Perry and Associates study reviewed here included (1) identifying potentially fatal flaws with the concept of using AR and (or) ASR to augment the streamflow of Catherine Creek, (2) identifying potentially favorable locations for augmenting streamflow, (3) developing and evaluating alternatives for implementing AR and (or) ASR, and (4) identifying next steps and estimated costs for implementation. The Anderson Perry study was not intended as a comprehensive evaluation of feasibility, but, rather, an effort to develop a concept and preliminary evaluation of feasibility. Additionally, the feasibility study was limited to using existing data from which additional data needs were to be identified. The feasibility study mostly accomplished the goals of identifying potential fatal flaws and developing a project implementation plan. However, a more practical discussion of conclusions regarding the feasibility, likelihood for success, achievement of goals, and overall project costs could have received greater emphasis and would be of value to decision makers. With regard to objective (2), the subject report analyzed information from several possible sites examined for an MUS system. Sufficient cause is provided in the subject report to identify the basalt aquifer in the Milk Creek sub-area as having the greatest potential for MUS. Therefore, this review is primarily focused on the Milk Creek sub-area and the basalt aquifer.

Oregon↗

Feathers and flu: Identifying data gaps in avian influenza host dynamics to prioritize wildlife conservation

Highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIV) have had disastrous, worldwide effects on wild birds and domestic poultry since the emergence of the A/goose/Guangdong/1/1996 (Gs/GD/96) lineage. The currently circulating H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b has an expanded set of susceptible hosts, including many migratory wild birds, and is associated with higher transmission rates, increased susceptibility among wild bird hosts, and a greater number of wildlife reservoirs. Certain wild bird life-history strategies and behaviors have been suggested to explain avian hosts’ susceptibility and exposure to HPAIV. These biological traits include gregariousness, such as colonial nesting and mixed flock foraging, predation or scavenging on wild birds, and association with aquatic habitats. Variation in host infection responses (e.g., infectability, shedding rates and duration, mortality rate, antibody development) informs the overall infection risk across avian species, yet the specific role of biological traits is often inconsistent and unclear across taxa. Moreover, the interactions and potential compounding effects among these biological traits remain largely unknown. To develop a more holistic understanding of cumulative risk across bird species, we integrate existing information on infection risk factors (i.e., susceptibility, immunological response, and behavioral traits) into a qualitative multivariate analysis. This approach enabled us to examine how infection risk factors relate to biological traits (e.g., phylogeny, physiology, behavior, species range) and to begin disentangling their complex interactions. We quantified and summarized these risk factors across host species and qualitatively ranked species by their viral responses along a proposed HPAIV response continuum, guided by expectations of traits and metrics associated with competence or vulnerability to HPAIV. In doing so, we aimed to better understand how viral responses and biological traits synergistically interact to influence cumulative risk across wild bird species. This work broadly expands on the previous avian influenza literature, which has focused on Anseriformes and Charadriiformes as primary viral reservoirs. We tie our findings to effective disease management responses with links to risk components, including descriptions of potential surveillance strategies applied to research and One Health goals, as well as a fuller understanding of how resources may be better deployed for rapid response when spillovers do inevitably occur. Additionally, we identified numerous areas where vital epidemiological information is lacking to best characterize the spread of these viruses. Ultimately, this improved understanding will help identify and inform disease management needs and decision making.

Wildlife Monographs↗

Accuracies achieved in classifying five leading world crop types and their growth stages using optimal Earth Observing-1 Hyperion hyperspectral narrowbands on Google Earth Engine

As the global population increases, we face increasing demand for food and nutrition. Remote sensing can help monitor food availability to assess global food security rapidly and accurately enough to inform decision-making. However, advances in remote sensing technology are still often limited to multispectral broadband sensors. Although these sensors have many applications, they can be limited in studying agricultural crop characteristics such as differentiating crop types and their growth stages with a high degree of accuracy and detail. In contrast, hyperspectral data contain continuous narrowbands that provide data in terms of spectral signatures rather than a few data points along the spectrum, and hence can help advance the study of crop characteristics. To better understand and advance this idea, we conducted a detailed study of five leading world crops (corn, soybean, winter wheat, rice, and cotton) that occupy 75% and 54% of principal crop areas in the United States and the world respectively. The study was conducted in seven agroecological zones of the United States using 99 Earth Observing-1 (EO-1) Hyperion hyperspectral images from 2008–2015 at 30 m resolution. The authors first developed a first-of-its-kind comprehensive Hyperion-derived Hyperspectral Imaging Spectral Library of Agricultural crops (HISA) of these crops in the US based on USDA Cropland Data Layer (CDL) reference data. Principal Component Analysis was used to eliminate redundant bands by using factor loadings to determine which bands most influenced the first few principal components. This resulted in the establishment of 30 optimal hyperspectral narrowbands (OHNBs) for the study of agricultural crops. The rest of the 242 Hyperion HNBs were redundant, uncalibrated, or noisy. Crop types and crop growth stages were classified using linear discriminant analysis (LDA) and support vector machines (SVM) in the Google Earth Engine cloud computing platform using the 30 optimal HNBs (OHNBs). The best overall accuracies were between 75% to 95% in classifying crop types and their growth stages, which were achieved using 15–20 HNBs in the majority of cases. However, in complex cases (e.g., 4 or more crops in a Hyperion image) 25–30 HNBs were required to achieve optimal accuracies. Beyond 25–30 bands, accuracies asymptote. This research makes a significant contribution towards understanding modeling, mapping, and monitoring agricultural crops using data from upcoming hyperspectral satellites, such as NASA’s Surface Biology and Geology mission (formerly HyspIRI mission) and the recently launched HysIS (Indian Hyperspectral Imaging Satellite, 55 bands over 400–950 nm in VNIR and 165 bands over 900–2500 nm in SWIR), and contributions in advancing the building of a novel, first-of-its-kind global hyperspectral imaging spectral-library of agricultural crops (GHISA: www.usgs.gov/WGSC/GHISA).

Remote Sensing↗

Surrogate analysis and index developer (SAID) tool and real-time data dissemination utilities

The use of acoustic and other parameters as surrogates for suspended-sediment concentrations (SSC) in rivers has been successful in multiple applications across the Nation. Critical to advancing the operational use of surrogates are tools to process and evaluate the data along with the subsequent development of regression models from which real-time sediment concentrations can be made available to the public. Recent developments in both areas are having an immediate impact on surrogate research, and on surrogate monitoring sites currently in operation. The Surrogate Analysis and Index Developer (SAID) standalone tool, under development by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), assists in the creation of regression models that relate response and explanatory variables by providing visual and quantitative diagnostics to the user. SAID also processes acoustic parameters to be used as explanatory variables for suspended-sediment concentrations. The sediment acoustic method utilizes acoustic parameters from fixed-mount stationary equipment. The background theory and method used by the tool have been described in recent publications, and the tool also serves to support sediment-acoustic-index methods being drafted by the multi-agency Sediment Acoustic Leadership Team (SALT), and other surrogate guidelines like USGS Techniques and Methods 3-C4 for turbidity and SSC. The regression models in SAID can be used in utilities that have been developed to work with the USGS National Water Information System (NWIS) and for the USGS National Real-Time Water Quality (NRTWQ) Web site. The real-time dissemination of predicted SSC and prediction intervals for each time step has substantial potential to improve understanding of sediment-related water-quality and associated engineering and ecological management decisions.

Conference Paper↗

Experimental analysis and simulation modeling of forest management impacts on wood thrushes, Hylocichla mustelina

North American Breeding Bird Survey data show that wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina) populations in eastern U.S. forests have declined 1.8% per year during 1966-95. The declining quality of breeding forest tracts in North America is one possible cause for the apparent decline of some neotropical migratory birds, such as the wood thrush. In Georgia, however, wood thrush populations have declined during a period of increasing pine forest area and larger patch sizes. We hypothesized that forest management practices such as thinning and prescribed burning might create unsuitable habitat for wood thrushes. We conducted a four-year before/after, treatment/control experiment at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge in central Georgia to study to the effects of a treatment of thinning and prescribed burning on wood thrush demographic parameters. We simultaneously monitored wood thrush adults and juveniles with mark-recapture, radio-telemetry, nest searches, and plot-map surveys. Our analyses showed that wood thrushes were less likely to emigrate from the study compartments after the treatment, and wood thrushes exhibited some tendency to increase preference for hardwood habitats and decrease preference for pine habitats following the treatment. However, we observed no effects of treatment on nest success, adult survival, and adult and juvenile dispersal distances. We also found that female wood thrushes had lower survival rates than males during the breeding season, and we documented large-scale, within-year dispersal movements of adult (up to 17 km) and juvenile (up to 7 km) wood thrushes. We conclude that landscape level habitat quantity and quality must be considered during songbird management decisions. The documentation of sex- and age-specific wood thrush survival and movement rates was critical for construction of a set of population models. We used three stochastic models to learn more about wood thrush population dynamics and make predictions about population growth rates, reproductive success, and the effect of habitat changes on wood thrush populations. The simplest source/sink population model suggests that the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge's wood thrush population is probably stable or increasing, and wood thrush populations in treated areas had higher growth rates than birds in untreated areas. We were able to use the individual-based model of wood thrush productivity to predict fecundity, a parameter that we could not measure directly in the field. Again, females on treated areas had higher fecundity than birds on untreated areas. Our spatially-based model predicted that wood thrush populations should respond positively to predicted changes in the age/size class structure of the Refuge's pine forests. Our model also showed that most wood thrushes leave the Refuge's forest compartments during the breeding season, and these dispersal movements are extremely important to understanding and managing wood thrush populations. The use of prescribed burning and retention shelterwood silviculture at the Piedmont National Wildlife Refuge does not appear to negatively affect the local wood thrush population. Continued use of the current management regime should result in adequate nesting, foraging, and escape habitats for wood thrushes. However, landscape-level habitat availability and quality, including lands outside the Refuge, must be considered when making management decisions that may affect wood thrushes.

Book↗

Seasonal use of a nonnatal marine basin by juvenile hatchery chinook salmon

Information on the movement patterns of fishes is essential for managers that are making critical resource decisions. We examined the frequency of a keystone species, Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that migrated from different marine basins to the Nisqually River estuary, which lies within the southernmost marine basin (hereafter, “South basin”) in Puget Sound (Washington, USA). Hatchery‐reared juvenile fish were sampled by using beach seine, lampara seine, and fyke nets to determine seasonal trends in frequency, habitat use, and the influence of different capture methods. The captured fish originated from three marine basins, nine Puget Sound rivers, and fourteen hatcheries. The data revealed a consistent pattern showing that most of the tagged fish (72%) were from the nearby Nisqually River (in the South basin), but fish from more northerly marine basins (hereafter, “Outbasin”) were also common. Although the majority of the tagged fish (99%) that were captured during April and May were originally released into rivers adjacent to the South basin, 90% of the fish that were captured in August and September had originated from rivers adjacent to Outbasin locations (up to 130 km distant). A comparison of sampling methods showed that the beach seine produced 27% Outbasin fish compared with 53% that were obtained with the lampara seine. The analysis of habitat use suggested that during June and July, more Outbasin fish (>40%) were captured in delta flats and nearshore habitats than in estuarine emergent marsh habitat (26%). Release location (river basin), but not distance, appeared to be an important factor that influenced the percentage of Outbasin fish that were captured in the South basin. However, it appeared that the fish that were released at light weights and early dates were more likely to be captured. Information on the movement of juvenile salmon to a nonnatal marine basin may help to increase our understanding of features of life history and survival, and it has application elsewhere, as many marine species are artificially propagated, released in large numbers, and have the potential to use nonnatal habitats.

Washington↗

Statistics of petroleum exploration in the world outside the United States and Canada through 2001

Future oil and gas supplies depend, in part, on the reserves that are expected to be added through exploration and new discoveries. This Circular presents a summary of the statistics and an analysis of petroleum exploration in the world outside the United States and Canada (the study area) through 2001. It updates U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1096 (by E.D. Attanasi and D.H. Root, 1993) and expands coverage of the statistics to areas where drilling and discovery data have recently become available. These new areas include China, the formerly Communist countries of Eastern Europe, and the countries that once were part of the former Soviet Union in Europe and Asia. Data are presented by country but are organized by petroleum provinces delineated by the U.S. Geological Survey World Energy Assessment Team (USGS Digital Data Series DDS?60, published in 2000). The data and analysis are presented in maps and graphs, providing a visual summary of the exploration maturity of an area. The maps show the delineated prospective areas and explored areas through 2001; explored areas have a drilling density that would rule out the occurrence of undetected large petroleum accumulations. Graphs summarize the exploration yields in terms of cumulative recoverable discovered oil and gas by delineated prospective area. From 1992 through 2001 in areas outside the United States and Canada, the delineated prospective area expanded at a rate of about 50,000 square miles per year while the explored area grew at the rate of about 11,000 square miles per year. The delineated prospective area established by 1970 contains about 75 percent of the oil discovered to date in the study area. This area is slightly less than 40 percent of the delineated prospective area established through 2001. Maps and graphs show the extension of the delineated prospective area to deepwater areas offshore of Brazil and West Africa. From 1991 through 2000, offshore discoveries accounted for 59 percent of the oil and 77 percent of the gas discovered in the study area. The petroleum industry's decision to incur the greater costs of moving offshore and into deeper waters appears to be a response to the absence of onshore prospects of comparable quality. Where natural gas can be commercially developed and marketed, data show an expansion of exploration to target gas-prone areas.

Circular↗

A Regional Approach to Wildlife Monitoring Related to Energy Exploration and Development in Colorado

The U.S. Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is currently developing a National Monitoring Strategy that will guide efforts to create an efficient and effective process for monitoring land health by BLM. To inform the ongoing development of the national strategy, BLM selected two States (Colorado, Alaska) to serve as focal areas on which to base a flexible framework for developing monitoring programs that evaluate wildlife responses to energy development. We developed a three-phase monitoring plan to serve as a template and applied it to the design of a monitoring program for the Colorado focal area (White River and Glenwood Springs Field Offices of the BLM). Phase I is a synthesis and assessment of current conditions that capitalizes on existing but under used data sources. A key component is the use of existing habitat and landscape models to evaluate the cumulative effects of surface disturbance. Phase II is the data collection process that uses information provided in Phase I to refine management objectives and provide a linkage to management decisions. The linkage is established through targeted monitoring, adaptive management, and research. Phase III establishes priorities and strategies for regional and national monitoring, and facilitates coordination among other land management agencies and organizations. The three phases are designed to be flexible and complementary. The monitoring plan guides an iterative process that is performed incrementally, beginning with the highest-priority species and management issues, while building on lessons learned and coordination among administrative levels. The activities associated with each phase can be repeated or updated as new information, data, or tools become available. This allows the development of a monitoring program that expands gradually and allows for rapid implementation. A demonstration application of the three-phase monitoring plan was conducted for a study area encompassing five BLM field offices in Colorado: White River, Glenwood Springs, Kremmling, Grand Junction, and Little Snake. The overall study area was selected to encompass the primary distribution of sagebrush and greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Colorado and to provide a larger context for evaluating priority management issues of the White River and Glenwood Springs Field Offices. Within the study area, we selected an additional scale of analysis: the Roan Plateau, an area of increased energy development. We focused our demonstration project on the primary objectives identified by the BLM and other stakeholders: (1) How do we evaluate the cumulative effects of energy development and mitigation activities on species of management interest or concern? (2) How can cumulative effects, including direct and indirect effects, be quantified relative to natural variation? (3) How can we implement compliance and effectiveness monitoring to determine whether lease stipulations are met and restoration/mitigation goals are achieved? We targeted greater sage-grouse because this species was identified as a monitoring priority for the White River Field Office. We also evaluated landscape-level indices to address fragmentation resulting from surface disturbance. The primary purpose of this exercise was to highlight the types of analyses and approaches that could be used to evaluate energy development in an application of the three-phase framework. We provide examples of Phase I products that can be used to guide the refinement of management objectives, development of adaptive management and research frameworks, and planning activities in Phase II. Finally, we report on the BLM's National Sage-Grouse Habitat Conservation Strategy as an example of Phase III activities. The development of an effective monitoring program is a daunting task, and will be difficult to implement by the BLM independently due to the current work load of staff. However, the scientific expertise and experience for developing cr

Open-File Report↗

MODIS phenology-derived, multi-year distribution of conterminous U.S. crop types

Innovative, open, and rapid methods to map crop types over large areas are needed for long-term cropland monitoring. We developed two novel and automated decision tree classification approaches to map crop types across the conterminous United States (U.S.) using MODIS 250 m resolution data: 1) generalized, and 2) year-specific classification. The classification approaches use similarities and dissimilarities in crop type phenologyderived from NDVI time-series data for the two approaches. The year-specific approach uses the training samples from one year and classifies crop types for that year only, whereas the generalized classification approach uses above-average, average, and below-average precipitation years for training to produce crop type maps for one or multiple years more robustly. We produced annual crop type maps using the generalized classification approach for 2001–2014 and the year-specific approach for 2008, 2010, 2011 and 2012. The year-specific classification had overall accuracies > 78%, while the generalized classifier had accuracies > 75% for the conterminous U.S. for 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2012. The generalized classifier enables automated and routine crop type mapping without repeated and expensive ground sample collection year after year. The resulting crop type maps for years prior to 2007 are new and especially important for long-term cropland monitoring and food security analysis because no other map products are currently available for 2001–2007.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

A 37 K SNP array for the management and conservation of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos)

We describe the development of a custom 37 K Affymetrix Axiom myDesign single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array for a culturally and ecologically important apex predator, the golden eagle ( Aquila chrysaetos ). Using this SNP array, we performed population genomic analysis on 154 individuals of known natal localities and detected three genetic clusters that we designated as Taiga/High Arctic, Great Basin, and Rocky Mountains/Great Plains. Each of these clusters appears to display clinal variation within these geographic regions. After determining genetic structure, we performed an assignment test of 32 individuals, five of which were siblings of individuals used in the assessment of genetic structure, three had associated telemetry data, and the remaining individuals were of unknown natal locations. Using this array, four siblings were correctly assigned to the same geographic region as their sibling and the genetic assignment of the radio telemetered birds agreed with the expected movement patterns displayed by these individuals. For the remaining individuals, we were able to assign all but five individuals to one of the three genetic clusters. Our genetic assignments illustrates the utility of this SNP array to accurately assign most individuals to predesignated geographical regions. While further compiling genetic and other data types, we can increase the power of this tool for identifying those breeding populations that may need assistance due to anthropogenic stressors that negatively impact their population viability. The use of this genetic resource will help substantiate decisions by multiple conservation groups that seek to preserve the natural population structure of the golden eagle.

Conservation Genetics↗

Sources and streambed storage of soft sediment and sediment-bound phosphorus in an agricultural Great Lakes tributary

The East River, an agricultural tributary to the Lower Fox River and Lake Michigan in Wisconsin, USA, has excessive phosphorus (P) and suspended-sediment loads that contribute to downstream eutrophication and habitat-related impairments. Spatial variations and connectivity in the sources and streambed storage of soft, fine-grained (silt and clay) sediment and related sediment-bound P (sed-P) were examined, from first-order ephemeral channels to a downstream water-monitoring station. Analysis included field inventories, a channel corridor sediment and sed-P budget applied to an extended channel network, and geochemical fingerprinting. Corridor inventories included mass wasting along valley sides, eroding streambanks, gullying along perennial and ephemeral channels, and streambed storage volumes in perennial reaches; each converted to masses. Erosion results estimate 7400 Mg/yr of fine-grained sediment, similar to the mean annual suspended sediment load of 5400 Mg/yr. Corridor erosion contributed 7200 kg/yr of sed-P, less than the mean annual particulate-P load of 10,000 kg/yr P. Soft sediment storage was 1400 Mg, with 1500 kg sed-P. Apportionment of soft sediment as streambank sourced was spatially variable, contributing ≥95 % in high order reaches with high storage and as little as 20 % in upstream reaches, where gully, crop, and forest provided the remainder. Two nearby tributaries showed similarity in the predominance of streambank-sourced material in stored soft sediment but differences in geomorphic setting affected its spatial distribution. The results of this study show the importance of including corridor erosion as a source of sediment and sed-P in agricultural basins, which can be helpful in decision-making regarding conservation practices.

Wisconsin↗