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At least 937 records · Page 52Linked to original sources
USGS2004

A tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation since 1567 A.D

We present a tree-ring based reconstruction of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) which demonstrates that strong, low-frequency (60-100 yr) variability in basin-wide (0-70??N) sea surface temperatures (SSTs) has been a consistent feature of North Atlantic climate for the past five centuries. Intervention analysis of reconstructed AMO indicates that 20th century modes were similar to those in the preceding ???350 yr, and wavelet spectra show robust multidecadal oscillations throughout the reconstruction. Though the exact relationships between low-frequency SST modes, higher frequency (???7-25 yr) atmospheric modes (e.g., North Atlantic Oscillation/Arctic Oscillation), and terrestrial climates must still be resolved, our results confirm that the AMO should be considered in assessments of past and future Northern Hemisphere climates. Copyright 2004 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2007

Airborne dust transport to the eastern Pacific Ocean off southern California: Evidence from San Clemente Island

Islands are natural dust traps, and San Clemente Island, California, is a good example. Soils on marine terraces cut into Miocene andesite on this island are clay-rich Vertisols or Alfisols with vertic properties. These soils are overlain by silt-rich mantles, 5-20 cm thick, that contrast sharply with the underlying clay-rich subsoils. The silt mantles have a mineralogy that is distinct from the island bedrock. Silt mantles are rich in quartz, which is rare in the island andesite. The clay fraction of the silt mantles is dominated by mica, also absent from local andesite, and contrasts with the subsoils, dominated by smectite. Ternary plots of immobile trace elements (Sc-Th-La and Ta-Nd-Cr) show that the island andesite has a composition intermediate between average upper continental crust and average oceanic crust. In contrast, the silt and, to a lesser extent, clay fractions of the silt mantles have compositions closer to average upper continental crust. The silt mantles have particle size distributions similar to loess and Mojave Desert dust, but are coarser than long-range-transported Asian dust. We infer from these observations that the silt mantles are derived from airborne dust from the North American mainland, probably river valleys in the coastal mountains of southern California and/or the Mojave Desert. Although average winds are from the northwest in coastal California, easterly winds occur numerous times of the year when "Santa Ana" conditions prevail, caused by a high-pressure cell centered over the Great Basin. Examination of satellite imagery shows that easterly Santa Ana winds carry abundant dust to the eastern Pacific Ocean and the California Channel Islands. Airborne dust from mainland North America may be an important component of the offshore sediment budget in the easternmost Pacific Ocean, a finding of potential biogeochemical and climatic significance.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗
USGS2013

Effects of fire on the thermal stability of permafrost in lowland and upland black spruce forests of interior Alaska in a changing climate

Fire is an important factor controlling the composition and thickness of the organic layer in the black spruce forest ecosystems of interior Alaska. Fire that burns the organic layer can trigger dramatic changes in the underlying permafrost, leading to accelerated ground thawing within a relatively short time. In this study, we addressed the following questions. (1) Which factors determine post-fire ground temperature dynamics in lowland and upland black spruce forests? (2) What levels of burn severity will cause irreversible permafrost degradation in these ecosystems? We evaluated these questions in a transient modeling–sensitivity analysis framework to assess the sensitivity of permafrost to climate, burn severity, soil organic layer thickness, and soil moisture content in lowland (with thick organic layers, ~80 cm) and upland (with thin organic layers, ~30 cm) black spruce ecosystems. The results indicate that climate warming accompanied by fire disturbance could significantly accelerate permafrost degradation. In upland black spruce forest, permafrost could completely degrade in an 18 m soil column within 120 years of a severe fire in an unchanging climate. In contrast, in a lowland black spruce forest, permafrost is more resilient to disturbance and can persist under a combination of moderate burn severity and climate warming.

Alaska↗
USGS2020

Climate has contrasting direct and indirect effects on armed conflicts

There is an active debate regarding the influence that climate has on the risk of armed conflict, which stems from challenges in assembling unbiased datasets, competing hypotheses on the mechanisms of climate influence, and the difficulty of disentangling direct and indirect climate effects. We use gridded historical non-state conflict records, satellite data, and land surface models in a structural equation modeling approach to uncover the direct and indirect effects of climate on violent conflicts in Africa and the Middle East (ME). We show that climate–conflict linkages in these regions are more complex than previously suggested, with multiple mechanisms at work. Warm temperatures and low rainfall direct effects on conflict risk were stronger than indirect effects through food and water supplies. Warming increases the risk of violence in Africa but unexpectedly decreases this risk in the ME. Furthermore, at the country level, warming decreases the risk of violence in most West African countries. Overall, we find a non-linear response of conflict to warming across countries that depends on the local temperature conditions. We further show that magnitude and sign of the effects largely depend on the scale of analysis and geographical context. These results imply that extreme caution should be exerted when attempting to explain or project local climate–conflict relationships based on a single, generalized theory.

Environmental Research Letters↗
USGS2023

Trends in tree cover change over three decades related to interannual climate variability and wildfire in California

The U.S. State of California has experienced frequent drought events, hotter temperatures and other disruptions to the climate system whose effects on ecosystems have been widely reported in recent decades. Studies primarily confined to specific vegetation communities or species, individual drought incidents, or analysis over a relatively short intervals, has limited our understanding of the broad-scale effects on tree cover and the spatiotemporal variability of effects across broader regions. We focused analysis on multi-annual land cover and land surface change to assess patterns and trends in tree cover loss in tree-dominated Californian ecoregions from 1986 to 2019. The top three years of total tree cover loss for the state were 2018 (1901 km 2 ), 2015 (1556 km 2 ), and 2008 (1549 km 2 ). Overall, annual tree cover loss had upward trends. Tree cover loss rapidly surged later in the study period and was apparently driven by climate stress and wildfires. Underlying geographic variability was apparent in both non-fire and fire-related tree cover loss that sharply increased during hotter multi-year droughts. The increasingly hotter and drier climate conditions were associated with significant increases in fire-induced mortality. Our findings indicate that a possible effect of future hotter and drier climate would lead to further tree cover loss, thereby endangering California's ecosystem goods and services. Geographic variability in tree cover trends indicates that ecoregion-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies would be useful to conserve the region's forest resources. Such strategies may benefit from consideration of historical disturbances, ecoregion's sensitivity to disturbance types, as well as potential ecoregion-specific climate-vegetation-fire feedbacks.

California↗
USGS2025

Regional patterns in U.S. wildfire activity: The critical role of ignition sources

As extreme wildfires increase globally, understanding their causes is critical for effective management. While climate and housing growth are commonly linked to rising fire activity, the role of specific ignition sources—particularly human-caused—remains understudied. Analyzing a 79-year dataset (1940–2019) from U.S. Forest Service regions across the continental United States, we found that different ignition sources in different regions have been a major driver of wildfire trends, accounting for 60%–80% of the interannual variation in fire frequency and approximately 20% in area burned across most U.S. regions. Lightning and campfires were the dominant sources in western regions, while arson drove fire activity east of the Mississippi River. Trends also varied significantly by region and over time, with housing growth explaining more in terms of fire frequency and climate primarily influencing area burned. Importantly, frequent fires often originated from different sources than those causing the largest areas burned. Prevention of human-caused ignitions, such as campfires and arson, could offer efficient and effective strategies to mitigate wildfire impacts on human and natural systems under changing climate and land-use conditions.

contiguous United States↗
USGS2026

Initial condition uncertainty exerts a large and persistent influence on model simulations of ecosystem carbon dynamics in California

Uncertainties in terrestrial ecosystem models limit their predictive power. Efforts to reduce projection error have rarely focused on constraining uncertainty in the initial state of the ecosystem, however, despite evidence that matching model initial conditions to real-world observations reduces overall model bias. Here we use an integrated land change and carbon gain-loss model to evaluate the influence of initial condition uncertainty on simulations of California wildland ecosystems during the years 1985–2020. We generated 36 initial conditions scenarios by varying the source data used to initialize state variables and then ran simulations based on each of these scenarios under a constant set of historical conditions. We found that discrepancies in initial forest extent and initial forest age among scenarios generated wide uncertainty ranges in model estimates of terrestrial ecosystem carbon stocks and flux rates at the outset of the simulation period, but differences in initial forest composition had no impact. Over time, forest age became more homogeneous across model scenarios leading to exponential rates of decline in the uncertainty ranges of live biomass and dead wood carbon but little to no impact on uncertainties in litter and soil organic carbon. Uncertainties in individual carbon flux rates were consistent with uncertainties in their source pools. In contrast, model estimates of ecosystem carbon balance demonstrated a shift in system behavior not apparent in trends for individual carbon stocks and fluxes. Specifically, estimates of ecosystem carbon balance converged across scenarios for the first 20 years of the simulation period but then began to diverge at an accelerating rate, possibly due to weakened resilience to the increased frequency and severity of climate-driven disturbances. Our results demonstrate that uncertainty in the initial state of the system can have large and persistent impacts on the predictability of ecosystem carbon dynamics, and that ongoing shifts in external forcing by climate and climate-driven disturbances can exacerbate these impacts.

California↗
USGS1999

Response of high-elevation forests in the Olympic Mountains to climatic change

The gap model ZELIG was used to examine the effects of increased temperature (2°C) and altered precipitation on high-elevation ecosystems of the Olympic Mountains, Washington, U.S.A. Changes in tree species distribution and abundance, as well as stand biomass, were examined on north and south aspects in the dry northeast (NE) and wet southwest (SW) regions of the Olympics for ( i ) warmer, ( ii ) warmer and 20% wetter, and ( iii ) warmer and 20% drier climatic-change scenarios. Dominant tree species shift upwards 300-600 m in elevation in the SW, with subalpine meadows and Tsuga mertensiana (Bong.) Carr. forests being replaced by Abies amabilis (Dougl.) Forbes forests at higher elevations and A. amabilis forests being replaced by Tsuga heterophylla (Raf.) Sarg. forests at lower elevations. In the NE, drought-tolerant species become dominant approximately 200 m lower than present, with A. lasiocarpa dominating the north aspect and Pinus contorta Dougl. ex Loud. the south aspect. Biomass increases in the SW and generally decreases in the NE, depending on aspect and precipitation regime. This study suggests that species and site-specific responses at mesoscale (e.g., wet vs. dry climatic regime) and microscale (e.g., north vs. south aspect) resolutions must be characterized to quantify the variation in potential effects of climatic change on forest vegetation in mountainous regions.

Canadian Journal of Forest Research↗
USGS2023

AIMS for wildlife: Developing an automated interactive monitoring system to integrate real-time movement and environmental data for true adaptive management

To effectively manage species and habitats at multiple scales, population and land managers require rapid information on wildlife use of managed areas and responses to landscape conditions and management actions. GPS tracking studies of wildlife are particularly informative to species ecology, habitat use, and conservation. Combining GPS data with administrative data and a diverse suite of remotely sensed, geo-referenced environmental (e.g., climatic) data, would more comprehensively inform how animals interact with and utilize habitats and ecosystems and our goal was to create a conceptual model for a system that would accomplish this – the ‘Automated Interactive Monitoring System (AIMS) for Wildlife’. Our objective for this study was to develop a Customized Wildlife Report (CWR) - the first AIMS for Wildlife deliverable product. CWRs collate and summarize our 8-year GPS tracking dataset of ∼11 million locations from 1338 individual (16 species) avifauna and make actionable, real-time data on animal movements and trends in a specific area of interest available to managers and stakeholders for rapid application in day-to-day management. The CWR exemplar presented in this paper was developed to address needs identified by habitat managers of Sacramento National Wildlife Refuge and illustrates the highly specific, information offered and how it contributes to assessing the efficacy of conservation actions while allowing for near real-time adaptive management. The report can be easily customized for any of the thousands of wildlife refuges or regional areas of interest in the United States, emphasizing the broad application of an animal movement data stream. Utilizing diverse, extensive telemetry data streams through scientific collaboration can aid managers and conservation stakeholders with short and long-term research and conservation planning and help address a cadre of issues from local-scale habitat management to improving the understanding of landscape level impacts like drought, wildfire, and climate change on wildlife populations.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2016

The plant phenology monitoring design for the National Ecological Observatory Network

Phenology is an integrative science that comprises the study of recurring biological activities or events. In an era of rapidly changing climate, the relationship between the timing of those events and environmental cues such as temperature, snowmelt, water availability or day length are of particular interest. This article provides an overview of the plant phenology sampling which will be conducted by the U.S. National Ecological Observatory Network NEON, the resulting data, and the rationale behind the design. Trained technicians will conduct regular in situ observations of plant phenology at all terrestrial NEON sites for the 30-year life of the observatory. Standardized and coordinated data across the network of sites can be used to quantify the direction and magnitude of the relationships between phenology and environmental forcings, as well as the degree to which these relationships vary among sites, among species, among phenophases, and through time. Vegetation at NEON sites will also be monitored with tower-based cameras, satellite remote sensing and annual high-resolution airborne remote sensing. Ground-based measurements can be used to calibrate and improve satellite-derived phenometrics. NEON’s phenology monitoring design is complementary to existing phenology research efforts and citizen science initiatives throughout the world and will produce interoperable data. By collocating plant phenology observations with a suite of additional meteorological, biophysical and ecological measurements (e.g., climate, carbon flux, plant productivity, population dynamics of consumers) at 47 terrestrial sites, the NEON design will enable continentalscale inference about the status, trends, causes and ecological consequences of phenological change.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2012

Mapped versus actual burned area within wildfire perimeters: Characterizing the unburned

For decades, wildfire studies have utilized fire occurrence as the primary data source for investigating the causes and effects of wildfire on the landscape. Fire occurrence data fall primarily into two categories: ignition points and perimeter polygons which are used to calculate a ‘burned area’ for a fire. However, understanding the relationships between climate and fire or between fire and its ecological effects requires an understanding of the burn heterogeneity across the landscape and the area within fire perimeters that remains unburned. This research characterizes unburned areas within fire perimeters, which provide ecological refugia and seed source for post-fire regeneration. We utilized differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) data to examine the frequency, extent, and spatial patterns of unburned area in three national parks across the western US (Glacier, Yosemite, and Yukon-Charley Rivers). We characterized unburned area within fire perimeters by fire size and severity, characterized distance to an unburned area across the burned portion of the fire, and investigated patch dynamics of unburned patches within the fire perimeter. From 1984 through 2009, the total area within the fire perimeters that was classified as unburned from dNBR was 37% for Yosemite, 17% for Glacier, and 14% for Yukon-Charley. Variation in unburned area between fires was highest in Yosemite and lowest in Yukon-Charley. The unburned proportion significantly decreased with increasing fire size and severity across all three parks. Unburned patch size increased with size of fire perimeter, but patches decreased in density. There were no temporal trends in unburned area found. These results raise questions about the validity of relationships found between external forcing agents, such as climate, and ‘burned area’ values derived solely from polygon fire perimeters.

Alaska, Montana, Wyoming↗
USGS2015

A dynamic population model to investigate effects of climate and climate-independent factors on the lifecycle of the tick Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae)

The lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum , is a disease vector of significance for human and animal health throughout much of the eastern United States. To model the potential effects of climate change on this tick, a better understanding is needed of the relative roles of temperature-dependent and temperature-independent (day-length-dependent behavioral or morphogenetic diapause) processes acting on the tick lifecycle. In this study, we explored the roles of these processes by simulating seasonal activity patterns using models with site-specific temperature and day-length-dependent processes. We first modeled the transitions from engorged larvae to feeding nymphs, engorged nymphs to feeding adults, and engorged adult females to feeding larvae. The simulated seasonal patterns were compared against field observations at three locations in United States. Simulations suggested that 1) during the larva-to-nymph transition, some larvae undergo no diapause while others undergo morphogenetic diapause of engorged larvae; 2) molted adults undergo behavioral diapause during the transition from nymph-to-adult; and 3) there is no diapause during the adult-to-larva transition. A model constructed to simulate the full lifecycle of A. americanum successfully predicted observed tick activity at the three U.S. study locations. Some differences between observed and simulated seasonality patterns were observed, however, identifying the need for research to refine some model parameters. In simulations run using temperature data for Montreal, deterministic die-out of A. americanum populations did not occur, suggesting the possibility that current climate in parts of southern Canada is suitable for survival and reproduction of this tick.

Journal of Medical Entomology↗
USGS2012

Sensitivity of spring phenology to warming across temporal and spatial climate gradients in two independent databases

Disparate ecological datasets are often organized into databases post hoc and then analyzed and interpreted in ways that may diverge from the purposes of the original data collections. Few studies, however, have attempted to quantify how biases inherent in these data (for example, species richness, replication, climate) affect their suitability for addressing broad scientific questions, especially in under-represented systems (for example, deserts, tropical forests) and wild communities. Here, we quantitatively compare the sensitivity of species first flowering and leafing dates to spring warmth in two phenological databases from the Northern Hemisphere. One—PEP725—has high replication within and across sites, but has low species diversity and spans a limited climate gradient. The other—NECTAR—includes many more species and a wider range of climates, but has fewer sites and low replication of species across sites. PEP725, despite low species diversity and relatively low seasonality, accurately captures the magnitude and seasonality of warming responses at climatically similar NECTAR sites, with most species showing earlier phenological events in response to warming. In NECTAR, the prevalence of temperature responders significantly declines with increasing mean annual temperature, a pattern that cannot be detected across the limited climate gradient spanned by the PEP725 flowering and leafing data. Our results showcase broad areas of agreement between the two databases, despite significant differences in species richness and geographic coverage, while also noting areas where including data across broader climate gradients may provide added value. Such comparisons help to identify gaps in our observations and knowledge base that can be addressed by ongoing monitoring and research efforts. Resolving these issues will be critical for improving predictions in understudied and under-sampled systems outside of the temperature seasonal mid-latitudes.

Northern Hemisphere↗
USGS2020

An overview of bioaerosol load and health impacts associated with dust storms: A focus on the Middle East

Dust storms are an important environmental problem worldwide. The main sources of dust storms include the Sahara, the Middle East, and central and northeastern Asia. Dust storms originating from these regions can be dispersed across oceans and in some cases globally. They occur throughout the year and vary in frequency and intensity. The biological agents (e.g., fungi, bacteria and viruses) and the mineral and chemical compositions of dust may have adverse effects on human health and quality of life. Desert dusts may cause respiratory diseases, cardiovascular diseases, cardiopulmonary diseases, mental health issues, injuries and death from transport accidents caused by poor visibility. This paper presents dust storm human health research conducted in the Middle East in both indoor and outdoor environments. Results illustrate that particle concentration and bioaerosol types in the atmosphere are affected by climate change and meteorological factors. Recent data trends indicate that annual dust aerosol concentrations have increased worldwide. According to studies conducted in the Middle East, the incidence of respiratory and cardiovascular mortality and hospital visits have increased dramatically following dust storm exposures but very few have demonstrated a regional causation. National and international collaborative efforts are needed to advance our understanding of the global implications of dust storms and what may be the most effective means of mitigation.

Middle East↗
USGS2016

Vegetative response to water availability on the San Carlos Apache Reservation

On the San Carlos Apache Reservation in east-central Arizona, U.S.A., vegetation types such as ponderosa pine forests, pinyon-juniper woodlands, and grasslands have significant ecological, cultural, and economic value for the Tribe. This value extends beyond the tribal lands and across the Western United States. Vegetation across the Southwestern United States is susceptible to drought conditions and fluctuating water availability. Remotely sensed vegetation indices can be used to measure and monitor spatial and temporal vegetative response to fluctuating water availability conditions. We used the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-derived Modified Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index II (MSAVI 2 ) to measure the condition of three dominant vegetation types (ponderosa pine forest, woodland, and grassland) in response to two fluctuating environmental variables: precipitation and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The study period covered 2002 through 2014 and focused on a region within the San Carlos Apache Reservation. We determined that grassland and woodland had a similar moderate to strong, year-round, positive relationship with precipitation as well as with summer SPEI. This suggests that these vegetation types respond negatively to drought conditions and are more susceptible to initial precipitation deficits. Ponderosa pine forest had a comparatively weaker relationship with monthly precipitation and summer SPEI, indicating that it is more buffered against short-term drought conditions. This research highlights the response of multiple, dominant vegetation types to seasonal and inter-annual water availability. This research demonstrates that multi-temporal remote sensing imagery can be an effective tool for the large scale detection of vegetation response to adverse impacts from climate change and support potential management practices such as increased monitoring and management of drought-affected areas. Different vegetation types displayed various responses to water availability, further highlighting the need for individual management plans for forest and woodland, especially considering the projected drier conditions in the Southwest U.S. and other arid or semi-arid regions around the world.

Arizona↗
USGS2016

Multi-index time series monitoring of drought and fire effects on desert grasslands

The Western United States is expected to undergo both extended periods of drought and longer wildfire seasons under forecasted global climate change and it is important to understand how these disturbances will interact and affect recovery and composition of plant communities in the future. In this research paper we describe the temporal response of grassland communities to drought and fire in southern Arizona, where land managers are using repeated, prescribed fire as a habitat restoration tool. Using a 25-year atlas of fire locations, we paired sites with multiple fires to unburned control areas and compare satellite and field-based estimates of vegetation cover over time. Two hundred and fifty Landsat TM images, dating from 1985–2011, were used to derive estimates of Total Vegetation Fractional Cover (TVFC) of live and senescent grass using the Soil-Adjusted Total Vegetation Index (SATVI) and post-fire vegetation greenness using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). We also implemented a Greenness to Cover Index that is the difference of time-standardized SATVI-TVFC and NDVI values at a given time and location to identify post-fire shifts in native, non-native, and annual plant cover. The results highlight anomalous greening and browning during drought periods related to amounts of annual and non-native plant cover present. Results suggest that aggressive application of prescribed fire may encourage spread of non-native perennial grasses and annual plants, particularly during droughts.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗
USGS2011

Implementation of unmanned aircraft systems by the U.S. Geological Survey

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) Project Office is leading the implementation of UAS technology in anticipation of transforming the research methods and management techniques employed across the Department of the Interior. UAS technology is being made available to monitor environmental conditions, analyse the impacts of climate change, respond to natural hazards, understand landscape change rates and consequences, conduct wildlife inventories and support related land management missions. USGS is teaming with the Department of the Interior Aviation Management Directorate (AMD) to lead the safe and cost-effective adoption of UAS technology by the Department of the Interior Agencies and USGS scientists.

Geocarto International↗
USGS2025

How will we prepare for an uncertain future? The value of open data and code for unborn generations facing climate change

As the impacts of climate change continue to intensify, humans face new challenges to long-term survival. Humans will likely be battling these problems long after 2100, when many climate projections currently end. A more forward-thinking view on our science and its direction may help better prepare for the future of our species. Researchers may consider datasets the basic units of knowledge, whose preservation is arguably more important than the articles that are written about them. Storing data and code in long-term repositories offers insurance against our uncertain future. To ensure open data are useful, data must be FAIR (Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, and Reusable) and be complete with all appropriate metadata. By embracing open science practices, contemporary scientists give the future of humanity the information to make better decisions, save time and other valuable resources, and increase global equity as access to information is made free. This, in turn, will enable and inspire a diversity of solutions, to the benefit of many. Imagine the collective science conducted, the models built, and the questions answered if all of the data researchers have collectively gathered were organized and immediately accessible and usable by everyone. Investing in open science today may ensure a brighter future for unborn generations.

Proceedings of the Royal Society, B↗