Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Climate Change Ecology”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 937 records · Page 52Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Integrating subsistence practice and species distribution modeling: assessing invasive elodea’s potential impact on Native Alaskan subsistence of Chinook salmon and whitefish

Alaska has one of the most rapidly changing climates on earth and is experiencing an accelerated rate of human disturbance, including resource extraction and transportation infrastructure development. Combined, these factors increase the state’s vulnerability to biological invasion, which can have acute negative impacts on ecological integrity and subsistence practices. Of growing concern is the spread of Alaska’s first documented freshwater aquatic invasive plant Elodea spp. (elodea). In this study, we modeled the suitable habitat of elodea using global and state-specific species occurrence records and environmental variables, in concert with an ensemble of model algorithms. Furthermore, we sought to incorporate local subsistence concerns by using Native Alaskan knowledge and available statewide subsistence harvest data to assess the potential threat posed by elodea to Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) and whitefish ( Coregonus nelsonii ) subsistence. State models were applied to future climate (2040–2059) using five general circulation models best suited for Alaska. Model evaluations indicated that our results had moderate to strong predictability, with area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve values above 0.80 and classification accuracies ranging from 66 to 89 %. State models provided a more robust assessment of elodea habitat suitability. These ensembles revealed different levels of management concern statewide, based on the interaction of fish subsistence patterns, known spawning and rearing sites, and elodea habitat suitability, thus highlighting regions with additional need for targeted monitoring. Our results suggest that this approach can hold great utility for invasion risk assessments and better facilitate the inclusion of local stakeholder concerns in conservation planning and management.

Alaska↗
USGS2011

Diel biogeochemical processes and their effect on the aqueous chemistry of streams: A review

This review summarizes biogeochemical processes that operate on diel, or 24-h, time scales in streams and the changes in aqueous chemistry that are associated with these processes. Some biogeochemical processes, such as those producing diel cycles of dissolved O 2 and pH, were the first to be studied, whereas processes producing diel concentration cycles of a broader spectrum of chemical species including dissolved gases, dissolved inorganic and organic carbon, trace elements, nutrients, stable isotopes, and suspended particles have received attention only more recently. Diel biogeochemical cycles are interrelated because the cyclical variations produced by one biogeochemical process commonly affect another. Thus, understanding biogeochemical cycling is essential not only for guiding collection and interpretation of water-quality data but also for geochemical and ecological studies of streams. Expanded knowledge of diel biogeochemical cycling will improve understanding of how natural aquatic environments function and thus lead to better predictions of how stream ecosystems might react to changing conditions of contaminant loading, eutrophication, climate change, drought, industrialization, development, and other factors.

Chemical Geology↗
USGS2025

Mapping ecological states in the upper Colorado River basin: Implications for fire management

Spatially explicit information on ecosystem dynamics that offers a mechanistic understanding of ecological processes can benefit environmental management. Broad-scale maps based on state-and-transition models provide valuable insight into transitions among ecological states resulting from specific drivers within areas sharing similar climatic and edaphic characteristics ecological sites (ES). We aimed to quantify ecological dynamics of two ES groups in the Upper Colorado River Basin from 1986 to 2022 through annual maps of ecological states and assess potential drivers of observed state change. This region comprises important sagebrush shrublands and pinyon-juniper woodlands affected by non-native annual grass invasion, wildfires, and drought-induced tree mortality. Using field-based and remote sensing data, we modeled vegetation states using random forest models and mapped the states annually from 1986 to 2022. To demonstrate the utility of the state maps for monitoring and management, we used this time series of maps to investigate the influences of fire and drought on state occurrence. Our findings revealed a statistically significant increase in states invaded by non-native annual species (Invaded state), which replaced Grassland and Shrubland states, while Shrubland states decreased significantly, transitioning to invaded and Woodland states. Invaded states had the highest likelihood of burning, followed by Woodlands. Drought was associated with increased area of Grassland and Bare states, but with decreased area of invaded and Shrubland states. These results indicate an accelerating fire cycle is potentially leading to ongoing regional environmental degradation. Despite increasing drought conditions during the study period, the invaded states continued to increase in area, indicating additional underlying mechanisms. Our reproducible, broad-scale, ecologically-driven state mapping process enhances understanding of how drought, fire, and invasion by non-native plants can transform semiarid landscapes of the western USA.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗
USGS2018

Water

Ensuring a reliable supply of clean freshwater to individuals, communities, and ecosystems , together with effective management of floods and droughts, is the foundation of human and ecological health. The water sector is also central to the economy and contributes significantly to the resilience of many other sectors, including agriculture, energy, urban environments, and industry. Water systems face considerable risk , even without anticipated future climate changes. Limited surface water storage, as well as a limited ability to make use of long-term drought forecasts and to trade water across uses and basins, has led to a significant depletion of aquifers in many regions in the United States. Across the Nation, much of the critical water and wastewater infrastructure is nearing the end of its useful life. To date, no comprehensive assessment exists of the climate-related vulnerability of U.S. water infrastructure (including dams, levees, aqueducts, sewers, and water and wastewater distribution and treatment systems), the potential resulting damages, or the cost of reconstruction and recovery. Paleoclimate information (reconstructions of past climate derived from ice cores or tree rings) shows that over the last 500 years, North America has experienced pronounced wet/dry regime shifts that sometimes persisted for decades. Because such protracted exposures to extreme floods or droughts in different parts of the country are extraordinary compared to events experienced in the 20th century, they are not yet incorporated in water management principles and practice. Anticipated future climate change will exacerbate this risk in many regions. A central challenge to water planning and management is learning to plan for plausible future climate conditions that are wider in range than those experienced in the 20th century. Doing so requires approaches that evaluate plans over many possible futures instead of just one, incorporate real-time monitoring and forecast products to better manage extremes when they occur, and update policies and engineering principles with the best available geoscience-based understanding of planetary change. While this represents a break from historical practice, recent examples of adaptation responses undertaken by large water management agencies, including major metropolitan water utilities and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, are promising.

Report↗
USGS2017

Inland waters and their role in the carbon cycle of Alaska

The magnitude of Alaska (AK) inland waters carbon (C) fluxes is likely to change in the future due to amplified climate warming impacts on the hydrology and biogeochemical processes in high latitude regions. Although current estimates of major aquatic C fluxes represent an essential baseline against which future change can be compared, a comprehensive assessment for AK has not yet been completed. To address this gap, we combined available data sets and applied consistent methodologies to estimate river lateral C export to the coast, river and lake carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and methane (CH 4 ) emissions, and C burial in lakes for the six major hydrologic regions in the state. Estimated total aquatic C flux for AK was 41 Tg C/yr. Major components of this total flux, in Tg C/yr, were 18 for river lateral export, 17 for river CO 2 emissions, and 8 for lake CO 2 emissions. Lake C burial offset these fluxes by 2 Tg C/yr. River and lake CH 4 emissions were 0.03 and 0.10 Tg C/yr, respectively. The Southeast and South central regions had the highest temperature, precipitation, terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP), and C yields (fluxes normalized to land area) were 77 and 42 g C·m −2 ·yr −1 , respectively. Lake CO 2 emissions represented over half of the total aquatic flux from the Southwest (37 g C·m −2 ·yr −1 ). The North Slope, Northwest, and Yukon regions had lesser yields (11, 15, and 17 g C·m 2 ·yr −1 ), but these estimates may be the most vulnerable to future climate change, because of the heightened sensitivity of arctic and boreal ecosystems to intensified warming. Total aquatic C yield for AK was 27 g C·m −2 ·yr −1 , which represented 16% of the estimated terrestrial NPP. Freshwater ecosystems represent a significant conduit for C loss, and a more comprehensive view of land-water-atmosphere interactions is necessary to predict future climate change impacts on the Alaskan ecosystem C balance.

Alaska↗
USGS2025

The future of biocontrol in the Anthropocene: A review of climate change impacts on biocontrol agents and their hosts

Biological control, the practice of using one species (biocontrol agent) to control the population of another (a host or prey species, hereafter target), can be a successful method to reduce pest species in agricultural and natural systems worldwide. Successful biocontrol agents often share a deep evolutionary history with their targets that results in high target specificity and synchronized phenology. However, with rapidly changing climatic conditions, users of biocontrol agents have questioned how climate change will affect both well-established and more recent biological control relationships. Using a meta-analysis of data collected from a systematic literature review, we evaluated the evidence for the impact of changing temperatures on the efficacy of biocontrol agents and corresponding responses in their targets. Overall, most studies of climate change impacts on biocontrol agents take place in the laboratory and focus on arthropod agents that are parasitoids. Results from our meta-analysis reveal that changes in temperature are projected to impact biocontrol agents and their targets similarly, with no overall significant changes to biocontrol agent or target performance. However, our results also show that temperature responses vary widely across study systems, as illustrated by case studies showing both positive, neutral, and negative effects of temperature on biocontrol agent efficacy, as well as variation in responses across the three core biological control measures of success: survival, reproduction, and efficacy. Our work highlights important knowledge gaps including how climate change will affect both biocontrol agents and their targets simultaneously. Additionally, we find that most current studies of climate impacts examined temperature relationships, predominantly of agricultural biocontrol agents. Increasing the breadth of studies is crucial for understanding the potential for climate change to affect the success of current and future biological control programs.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2024

Observed and potential range shifts of native and non-native species with climate change

There is broad concern that the range shifts of global flora and fauna will not keep up with climate change, increasing the likelihood of population declines and extinctions. Many populations of nonnative species already have advantages over native species, including widespread human-aided dispersal and release from natural enemies. But do nonnative species also have an advantage with climate change? Here, we review observed and potential range shifts for native and nonnative species globally. We show that nonnative species are expanding their ranges orders of magnitude faster than native species, reflecting both traits that enable rapid spread and ongoing human-mediated introduction. We further show that nonnative species have large potential ranges and range expansions with climate change, likely due to a combination of widespread introduction and broader climatic tolerances. With faster spread rates and larger potential to persist or expand, nonnative populations have a decided advantage in a changing climate.

Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systemati↗
USGS2015

Climate-induced changes in lake ecosystem structure inferred from coupled neo- and paleoecological approaches

Over the 20th century, surface water temperatures have increased in many lake ecosystems around the world, but long-term trends in the vertical thermal structure of lakes remain unclear, despite the strong control that thermal stratification exerts on the biological response of lakes to climate change. Here we used both neo- and paleoecological approaches to develop a fossil-based inference model for lake mixing depths and thereby refine understanding of lake thermal structure change. We focused on three common planktonic diatom taxa, the distributions of which previous research suggests might be affected by mixing depth. Comparative lake surveys and growth rate experiments revealed that these species respond to lake thermal structure when nitrogen is sufficient, with species optima ranging from shallower to deeper mixing depths. The diatom-based mixing depth model was applied to sedimentary diatom profiles extending back to 1750 AD in two lakes with moderate nitrate concentrations but differing climate settings. Thermal reconstructions were consistent with expected changes, with shallower mixing depths inferred for an alpine lake where treeline has advanced, and deeper mixing depths inferred for a boreal lake where wind strength has increased. The inference model developed here provides a new tool to expand and refine understanding of climate-induced changes in lake ecosystems.

Ecology↗
USGS2014

Understanding relationships among abundance, extirpation, and climate at ecoregional scales

Recent research on mountain-dwelling species has illustrated changes in species’ distributional patterns in response to climate change. Abundance of a species will likely provide an earlier warning indicator of change than will occupancy, yet relationships between abundance and climatic factors have received less attention. We tested whether predictors of counts of American pikas ( Ochotona princeps ) during surveys from the Great Basin region in 1994–1999 and 2003–2008 differed between the two periods. Additionally, we tested whether various modeled aspects of ecohydrology better predicted relative density than did average annual precipitation, and whether risk of site-wide extirpation predicted subsequent population counts of pikas. We observed several patterns of change in pika abundance at range edges that likely constitute early warnings of distributional shifts. Predictors of pika abundance differed strongly between the survey periods, as did pika extirpation patterns previously reported from this region. Additionally, maximum snowpack and growing-season precipitation resulted in better-supported models than those using average annual precipitation, and constituted two of the top three predictors of pika density in the 2000s surveys (affecting pikas perhaps via vegetation). Unexpectedly, we found that extirpation risk positively predicted subsequent population size. Our results emphasize the need to clarify mechanisms underlying biotic responses to recent climate change at organism-relevant scales, to inform management and conservation strategies for species of concern.

Ecology↗
USGS2020

Genetic and environmental indicators of climate change vulnerability for desert bighorn sheep

Assessments of organisms’ vulnerability to potential climatic shifts are increasingly common. Such assessments are often conducted at the species level and focused primarily on the magnitude of anticipated climate change (i.e., climate exposure). However, wildlife management would benefit from population-level assessments that also incorporate measures of local or regional potential for organismal adaptation to change. Estimates of genetic diversity, gene flow, and landscape connectivity can address this need and complement climate exposure estimates to establish management priorities at broad to local scales. We provide an example of this holistic approach for desert bighorn sheep ( Ovis canadensis nelsoni ) within and surrounding lands administered by the U.S. National Park Service. We used genetic and environmental data from 62 populations across the southwestern U.S. to delineate genetic structure, evaluate relationships between genetic diversity and isolation, and estimate relative climate vulnerability for populations as a function of five variables associated with species’ responses to climate change: genetic diversity, genetic isolation, geographic isolation, forward climate velocity within a population’s habitat patch (a measure of geographic movement rate required for an organism to maintain constant climate conditions), and maximum elevation within the habitat patch (a measure of current climate stress, as lower maximum elevation is associated with higher temperature, lower precipitation, and lower population persistence). Genetic structure analyses revealed a high-level division between populations in southeastern Utah and populations in the remainder of the study area, which were further differentiated into four lower-level genetic clusters. Genetic diversity decreased with population isolation, whereas genetic differentiation increased, but these patterns were stronger for native populations than for translocated populations. Populations exhibited large variation in predicted vulnerability across the study area with respect to all variables, but native populations occupying relatively intact landscapes, such as Death Valley and Grand Canyon national parks, had the lowest overall vulnerability. These results provide local and regional context for conservation and management decisions regarding bighorn populations in a changing climate. Our study further demonstrates how assessments combining multiple factors could allow a more integrated response, such as increasing efforts to maintain connectivity and thus potential for adaptation in areas experiencing rapid climate change.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗
USGS2014

Projecting climate effects on birds and reptiles of the Southwestern United States

We modeled the current and future breeding ranges of seven bird and five reptile species in the Southwestern United States with sets of landscape, biotic (plant), and climatic global circulation model (GCM) variables. For modeling purposes, we used PRISM data to characterize the climate of the Western United States between 1980 and 2009 (baseline for birds) and between 1940 and 2009 (baseline for reptiles). In contrast, we used a pre-selected set of GCMs that are known to be good predictors of southwestern climate (five individual and one ensemble GCM), for the A1B emission scenario, to characterize future climatic conditions in three time periods (2010–39; 2040–69; and, 2070–99). Our modeling approach relied on conceptual models for each target species to inform selection of candidate explanatory variables and to interpret the ecological meaning of developed probabilistic distribution models. We employed logistic regression and maximum entropy modeling techniques to create a set of probabilistic models for each target species. We considered climatic, landscape, and plant variables when developing and testing our probabilistic models. Climatic variables included the maximum and minimum mean monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation for three time periods. Landscape features included terrain ruggedness and insolation. We also considered plant species distributions as candidate explanatory variables where prior ecological knowledge implicated a strong association between a plant and animal species. Projected changes in range varied widely among species, from major losses to major gains. Breeding bird ranges exhibited greater expansions and contractions than did reptile species. We project range losses for Williamson’s sapsucker and pygmy nuthatch of a magnitude that could move these two species close to extinction within the next century. Although both species currently have a relatively limited distribution, they can be locally common, and neither are presently considered candidates for prospective endangerment. We project range losses of over 40 percent, from its current extent of occurrence, for the plateau striped whiptail, Arizona black rattlesnake, and common lesser earless lizard. Currently, these reptile species are thought to be common or at least locally abundant throughout their ranges. The total contribution of plants in each distribution model was very small, but models that contained at least one plant always outperformed models with only physical variables (climatic or landscape). The magnitude of change in projected range increased further into the future, especially when a plant was in the model. Among bird species, those that had the strongest association with a landscape feature during the breeding season, such as terrain ruggedness and insolation, exhibited the smallest contractions in projected breeding range in the future. In contrast, bird species that had weak associations with landscape features, but strong climatic associations, suffered the greatest breeding range contractions. Thus, landscape effects appeared to buffer some of the negative effects of climate change for some species. Among bird species, magnitude of change in projected breeding range was positively related to the annual average temperature of their baseline distribution, thus species with the warmest breeding ranges exhibited the greatest changes in future breeding ranges. This pattern was not evident for reptiles, but might exist if additional species were included in the model. Our results provide managers with a series of projected range maps that will enable scientists, concerned citizens, and wildlife managers to identify what the potential effects of climate change will be on bird and reptile distributions in the Western United States. We hope that our results can be used in proactive ways to mitigate some of the potential effects of climate change on selected species.

Colorado Plateau;Sonoran Desert↗
USGS2026

Vulnerability of different Colorado Plateau land types to drivers of change

Public lands are challenged by a range of pressures—changing climate, increasing visitation, resource extraction—and their effects can span spatial scales, often crossing land management jurisdictional boundaries. Research approaches which explicitly span jurisdictions can support strategies to contend with regional pressures. We assess management-relevant drivers of change—aridification, livestock grazing, invasive species, surface disturbance, and fire—across a patchwork of land management units and agencies on the Colorado Plateau, focusing on southeastern Utah, USA. We use vulnerability analysis, first evaluating exposure to drivers across the landscape, then quantifying sensitivity to each driver across different land types, defined by mapped Ecological Site Groups, a system for classifying landscapes according to physical factors including climate, soils, and topographic setting. We address the questions: 1) how are drivers spatially distributed across the study region; and, 2) based on exposure and sensitivity, are certain land types more vulnerable to these drivers? We find that the study region has high exposure and sensitivity—and thus high vulnerability—to aridification and grazing, but low exposure and vulnerability to other drivers. Although more sensitive land types were not generally more exposed, identifying which areas are most sensitive can guide adaptive measures, like where new uses or disturbances would be least harmful and which areas could be prioritized for restoration. The method we demonstrate is a flexible tool for assessing landscape-scale impacts, is built on nationally available datasets, and can be tailored to different datasets and sensitivity metrics.

Utah↗
USGS2025

Waterfront property owners' shoreline preferences amid salt marsh to mangrove transitions

1. We examined the influence of mangrove encroachment into salt marsh areas along the northern Gulf of Mexico (USA) on waterfront property owners' perceptions of coastal health and preferences for shoreline management. 2. Using mail-in and online surveys, we targeted over 3000 waterfront property owners across four jurisdictions experiencing or anticipating mangrove encroachment. 3. Our findings revealed a nuanced perception of coastal health, with many respondents recognizing the potentially environmental impacts of mangrove encroachment but favouring low-cost management strategies, such as maintaining current shoreline or passive monitoring. This reluctance to engage in active management highlights a perception-behaviour gap, likely influenced by the gradual nature of mangrove transitions, which diminishes urgency for active intervention. 4. Socio-demographic factors such as age, gender, income, residency and reliance on coastal resources significantly shaped preferences for shoreline management and regional responses. These preferences varied across jurisdictions, reflecting the importance of incorporating localized community values into management decisions. 5. Our findings highlight the need for a balanced approach to shoreline management that integrates ecological insights with the socio-cultural priorities of local communities. By aligning adaptation strategies with regional perceptions and values, it is possible to protect individual properties while enhancing the long-term resilience of coastal ecosystems under climate change pressures.

Florida, Texas↗
USGS2020

Forest restoration and fuels reduction: Convergent or divergent?

For over 20 years, forest fuel reduction has been the dominant management action in western US forests. These same actions have also been associated with the restoration of highly altered frequent-fire forests. Perhaps the vital element in the compatibility of these treatments is that both need to incorporate the salient characteristics that frequent fire produced—variability in vegetation structure and composition across landscapes and the inability to support large patches of high-severity fire. These characteristics can be achieved with both fire and mechanical treatments. The possible key to convergence of fuel reduction and forest restoration strategies is integrated planning that permits treatment design flexibility and a longer-term focus on fire reintroduction for maintenance. With changing climate conditions, long-term forest conservation will probably need to be focused on keeping tree density low enough (i.e., in the lower range of historic variation) for forest conditions to adapt to emerging disturbance patterns and novel ecological processes.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New↗
USGS2023

Multi-scale assessment of roost selection by ‘ōpe‘ape‘a, the Hawaiian hoary bat (Lasiurus semotus)

The Hawaiian hoary bat ( Lasiurus semotus ; Chiroptera: Vespertilionidae), commonly and locally known as ‘ōpe‘ape‘a, is a solitary, insectivorous, and foliage-roosting species distributed across a wide range of habitats in lowland and montane environments. The species, as with many others in the Hawaiian archipelago, are facing a suite of challenges due to habitat loss and degradation, introduced predators and pests, and climate change. An understanding of the roost requirements of foliage-roosting tree bats is critical to their conservation as these habitats provide several important benefits to survival and reproduction. Because little is known about ‘ōpe‘ape‘a roost ecology and considerable effort is needed to capture and track bats to roost locations, we examined resource selection at multiple spatial scales—perch location within a roost tree, roost tree, and forest stand. We used a discrete choice modeling approach to investigate day-roost selection and describe attributes of roost trees including those used as maternity roosts. ‘Ōpe‘ape‘a were found roosting in 19 tree species and in an assortment of landcover types including native and non-native habitats. Our results are largely consistent with findings of other studies of foliage-roosting, insectivorous tree bats where bats selected roost locations that may offer protection and thermoregulatory benefits.

Hawaii↗
USGS2016

Effects of Climate and land use on diversity, prevalence, and seasonal transmission of avian hematozoa in American Samoa

The indigenous forest birds of American Samoa are increasingly threatened by changing patterns of rainfall and temperature that are associated with climate change as well as environmental stressors associated with agricultural and urban development, invasive species, and new introductions of avian diseases and disease vectors. Long term changes in their distribution, diversity, and population sizes could have significant impacts on the ecological integrity of the islands because of their critical role as pollinators and seed dispersers. We documented diversity of vector borne parasites on Tutuila and Ta‘u Islands over a 10-year period to expand earlier observations of Plasmodium, Trypanosoma , and filarial parasites, to provide better parasite identifications, and to create a better baseline for detecting new parasite introductions. We also identified potential mosquito vectors of avian Plasmodium and Trypanosoma , determined whether land clearing and habitat alterations associated with subsistence farming within the National Park of American Samoa can influence parasite prevalence, and determined whether parasite prevalence is correlated with seasonal changes in rainfall, temperature and wind speed. Three taxonomically distinct lineages of Plasmodium were identified from mosquito vectors and forest birds based on partial sequence data from parasite mitochondrial genes. All three have been described from passerine and galliform birds in Australasia. Two lineages, SCEDEN01 and ORW1, had elongate gametocytes and large schizonts that were consistent with species of Plasmodium in the subgenus Giavannolaia, but were taxonomically distinct from known morphological species of Plasmodium based on a Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of a 478 bp region of the parasite cytochrome b gene. Both are candidates for description as new species. The third lineage (GALLUS02) was detected only in mosquito vectors on Tutuila and was similar in cytochrome b sequence to P. juxtanucleare , a pathogenic species of Plasmodium from chickens and other galliform birds from Australasia, Africa, and South America. Plasmodium relictum , the malarial parasite that has had such a devastating impact on Hawaiian forest birds, was not detected. We observed large, striated trypanosomes in avian hosts from both Tutuila and Ta‘u Islands that fell within the same taxonomic clade as T. corvi and T. culicavium based on 18S ribosomal DNA sequence. We also observed sheathed microfilariae with pointed tails that had some morphological similarities to microfilaria from species of Pelecitus, Struthiofilaria and Eulimdana , but identification will require recovery and examination of adult filarial worms from the connective tissue or body cavities of infected birds. We also observed one or more species of haemococcidians (Isospora, synonym = Atoxoplasma ) within circulating lymphocytes from multiple avian host species. Overall prevalence of Plasmodium was higher on Ta‘u (22%, 75/341) than Tutuila (9.2%, 27/294), with most infections occurring in Polynesian starlings, Samoan starlings, Wattled honeyeaters, and Cardinal honeyeaters. Prevalence was relatively constant from year to year and between seasons at individual study sites, but varied among study sites, with highest rates of infection in areas with agricultural activity at Faleasao (37.4%, 73/195, Ta‘u Island) and Amalau Valley (9.7%, 21/216, Tutuila Island). Prevalence in more remote areas of the National Park of American Samoa was lower, ranging from 1.4% (2/146) at Laufuti and Luatele on Ta‘u to 7.7% (6/78) at Olo Ridge on Tutuila. Similar trends were evident for infections with Trypanosoma and filarial worms. Overall prevalence was not influenced significantly by warmer, wet (summer) or cooler, dry (winter) season. We detected Plasmodium infections in Culex sitiens and C. quinquefasciatus through either salivary gland and midgut dissections or PCR amplification of parasite cytochrome b genes in pooled or individual samples of mosquitoes that were collected on Tutuila. Pooled or individual Aedes oceanicus, A. polynesiensis, A. tutuilae, A. upolensis, A. nocturnus, Aedes (Finlaya) (mixed pools of A. samoanus, A. oceanicus, A. tutuilae), Aedes (Stegomyia) (mixed pools of A. aegypti, A. upolensis, A. polynesiensis ), and C. annulirostris were negative for Plasmodium , but we detected infections with Trypanosoma through midgut and salivary gland dissections in a single C. sitiens from Amalau Valley, Tutuila and three A. oceanicus from Faleasao, Ta‘u. Two of the A. oceanicus from Faleasao amplified successfully with Trypanosoma primers, but sequences were distinctly different from those obtained from avian hosts. We found a strong association between land use and prevalence of mosquito-transmitted parasites on Ta‘u Island with odds of being infected more than 20 times greater in agricultural plots than more remote native forest. This relationship was evident on Tutuila Island but not statistically significant because of the close proximity of study sites and observed movement of birds between native forest and agricultural land. Our data support previous studies that have suggested that Plasmodium and other vector-borne parasites are part of the indigenous parasite fauna in American Samoa. Transmission dynamics appear to be affected by environmental changes associated with land use practices.

HI↗
USGS2009

Climate alters response of an endemic island plant to removal of invasive herbivores

Islands experience higher rates of species extinction than mainland ecosystems, with biological invasions among the leading causes; they also serve as important model systems for testing ideas in basic and applied ecology. Invasive removal programs on islands are conservation efforts that can also be viewed as powerful manipulative experiments, but few data are available to evaluate their effects. We collected demographic and herbivore damage data for Castilleja mollis Pennell, an endangered plant endemic to Santa Rosa Island, California, over a 12-year period before, during, and after the implementation of control for introduced cattle, deer, and elk. We used these long-term data to explore mechanisms underlying herbivore effects, assess the results of herbivore reduction at the scales of both individual plants and populations, and determine how temporal variability in herbivory and plant demography influenced responses to herbivore removals. For individual plants, herbivore effects mediated by disturbance were greater than those of grazing. Deer and elk scraping of the ground substantially increased plant mortality and dormancy and reduced flowering and growth. Stem damage from browsing did not affect survivorship but significantly reduced plant growth and flower production. Herbivore control successfully lowered damage rates, which declined steeply between 1997 and 2000 and have remained relatively low. Castilleja mollis abundances rose sharply after 1997, suggesting a positive effect of herbivore control, but then began to decline steadily again after 2003. The recent decline appears to be driven by higher mean growing season temperatures; interestingly, not only reductions in scraping damage but a period of cooler conditions were significant in explaining increases in C. mollis populations between 1997 and 2002. Our results demonstrate strong effects of introduced herbivores on both plant demography and population dynamics and show that climate-driven variation may counteract and mask positive responses to herbivore removal. Regional mean temperatures already have risen significantly over the last 50 years, suggesting that climate change could increasingly swamp the effects of management targeted at other environmental problems. Similar interactions between climate and invasive species will play an even greater role in future management, with long-term data sets like this critical to quantifying such effects. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecological Applications↗
USGS2022

Projected stream fish community risk to climate impacts in the Northeastern and Midwestern United States

Climate change is expected to alter stream fish habitat potentially leading to changes in the composition and distribution of fish communities. In the Northeastern and Midwestern United States we identified the distribution and characteristics of those fish communities most and least at risk of experiencing changes in climate which deviate from the climate they are associated with. We classified stream fish communities based on a suite of climate and environmental variables with multivariate regression trees under both recent and future conditions based on eight climate models. Our findings showed that some areas, such as the majority of the Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa), have high levels of risk of change in stream class, while much of Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, Pennsylvania, Eastern Ohio, Southern Michigan, and the Atlantic Coast are at relatively low risk. Stream class shifts ranged from over 75% of segments lost (associated with cooler temperatures) to gains of over 40% (associated with warmer temperatures). Common warmwater species such as green sunfish ( Lepomis cyanellus ), bluegill ( Lepomis macrochirus ) and largemouth bass ( Micropterus salmoides ) are expected to have the largest net gains in associated stream classes, while species associated with cooler streams such as Southern redbelly dace ( Chrosomus erythrogaster ), slimy sculpin ( Cottus cognatus ), and Eastern blacknose dace ( Rhinichthys atratulus ) were expected to experience the largest proportional losses. By pairing our climate risk predictions with other stressors such anthropogenic land use, habitat fragmentation, and water quality impairment, we identified opportunities for preservation (low risk due to all threats), restoration (low risk due to climate, high risk due to other stressors), and adaptation (high climate risk with low risk from other stressors). Understanding which communities are at risk due to climate change will aid in developing adaptation strategies to help sustain them in the future.

Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Ke↗