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USGS2025

Twenty years (2000-2020) of butterfly monitoring data across the contiguous United States

We present the most comprehensive, integrated, butterfly monitoring dataset ever assembled for the United States. It contains over 1.2 million count records, from 65,000 surveys, representing over 12.6 million individual butterflies. To compile this dataset, we integrated data and harmonized taxonomy across 19 butterfly monitoring programs in the United States – one national, 13 statewide, and 5 local (e.g. individual county or National Park) in scale. In addition to the data, we also provide the taxonomic dictionary used to crosswalk butterfly taxonomy across programs, and the code used to assemble the integrated dataset. The publication of this dataset will inspire new analyses of butterfly population trends and drivers that help to identify solutions to the biodiversity crisis.

contiguous United States↗
USGS2019

Distinguishing recent dispersal from historical genetic connectivity in the coastal California gnatcatcher

Habitat loss and fragmentation are primary threats to biodiversity worldwide. We studied the impacts of habitat loss and fragmentation on genetic connectivity and diversity among local aggregations of the California gnatcatcher ( Polioptila californica californica ) across its U.S. range. With a dataset of 268 individuals genotyped at 19 microsatellite loci, we analyzed genetic structure across the range using clustering analyses, exact tests for population differentiation, and a pedigree analysis to examine the spatial distribution of first-order relatives throughout the study area. In addition, we developed a habitat suitability model and related percent suitable habitat to genetic diversity indices within aggregations at two spatial scales. We detected a single genetic cluster across the range, with weak genetic structure among recently geographically isolated aggregations in the northern part of the range. The pedigree analysis detected closely related individuals across disparate aggregations and across large geographic distances in the majority of the sampled range, demonstrating that recent long-distance dispersal has occurred within this species. Genetic diversity was independent of suitable habitat at a local 5-km scale, but increased in a non-linear fashion with habitat availability at a broader, 30-km scale. Diversity declined steeply when suitable habitat within 30-km fell below 10%. Together, our results suggest that California gnatcatchers retain genetic connectivity across the majority of the current distribution of coastal sage scrub fragments, with the exception of some outlying aggregations. Connectivity may help support long-term persistence under current conservation and management strategies. However, emerging structure among more remote aggregations and associations between available habitat and genetic diversity also suggest that continued loss of habitat could threaten diversity and connectivity in the future.

California↗
USGS2020

Linking landscape-scale conservation to regional and continental outcomes for a migratory species

Land-use intensification on arable land is expanding and posing a threat to biodiversity and ecosystem services worldwide. We develop methods to link funding for avian breeding habitat conservation and management at landscape scales to equilibrium abundance of a migratory species at the continental scale. We apply this novel approach to a harvested bird valued by birders and hunters in North America, the northern pintail duck ( Anas acuta ), a species well below its population goal. Based on empirical observations from 2007–2016, habitat conservation investments for waterfowl cost $313 M and affected less than 2% of the pintail’s primary breeding area in the Prairie Pothole Region of Canada. Realistic scenarios for harvest and habitat conservation costing an estimated $588 M (2016 USD) led to predicted pintail population sizes less than 3 M when assuming average parameter values. Accounting for parameter uncertainty, converting 70–100% of these croplands to idle grassland (cost: $35.7B–50B) is required to achieve the continental population goal of 4 M individuals under the current harvest policy. Using our work as a starting point, we propose continued development of modeling approaches that link conservation funding, habitat delivery, and population response to better integrate conservation efforts and harvest management of economically important migratory species.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2020

Mass mortality in freshwater mussels (Actinonaias pectorosa) in the Clinch River, USA, linked to a novel densovirus

Freshwater mussels (order Unionida) are among the world’s most biodiverse but imperiled taxa. Recent unionid mass mortality events around the world threaten ecosystem services such as water filtration, nutrient cycling, habitat stabilization, and food web enhancement, but causes have remained elusive. To examine potential infectious causes of these declines, we studied mussels in Clinch River, Virginia and Tennessee, USA, where the endemic and once-predominant pheasantshell ( Actinonaias pectorosa ) has suffered precipitous declines since approximately 2016. Using metagenomics, we identified 17 novel viruses in Clinch River pheasantshells. However, only one virus, a novel densovirus ( Parvoviridae ; Densovirinae ), was epidemiologically linked to morbidity. Clinch densovirus 1 was 11.2 times more likely to be found in cases (moribund mussels) than controls (apparently healthy mussels from the same or matched sites), and cases had 2.7 (log 10 ) times higher viral loads than controls. Densoviruses cause lethal epidemic disease in invertebrates, including shrimp, cockroaches, crickets, moths, crayfish, and sea stars. Viral infection warrants consideration as a factor in unionid mass mortality events either as a direct cause, an indirect consequence of physiological compromise, or a factor interacting with other biological and ecological stressors to precipitate mortality.

Virginia, Tennessee↗
USGS2021

Hydrologic variation influences stream fish assemblage dynamics through flow regime and drought

Hydrologic variation can play a major role in structuring stream fish assemblages and relationships between hydrology and biology are likely to be influenced by flow regime. We hypothesized that more variable flow regimes would have lower and more variable species richness, higher species turnover and lower assemblage stability, and greater abiotic environment-fish relationships than more stable flow regimes. We sampled habitats (pool, run, and riffle) in three Runoff/Intermittent Flashy streams (highly variable flow regime) and three Groundwater Flashy streams (less variable flow regime) seasonally (spring, early summer, summer and autumn) in 2002 (drought year) and 2003 (wet year). We used backpack electrofishing and three-pass removal techniques to estimate fish species richness, abundance and density. Fish species richness and abundance remained relatively stable within streams and across seasons, but densities changed substantially as a result of decreased habitat volume. Mixed model analysis showed weak response variable-habitat relationships with strong season effects in 2002, and stronger habitat relationships and no season effect in 2003, and flow regime was not important in structuring these relationships. Seasonal fish species turnover was significantly greater in 2002 than 2003, but did not differ between flow regimes. Fish assemblage stability was significantly lower in Runoff/Intermittent Flashy than Groundwater Flashy streams in 2002, but did not differ between flow regimes in 2003. Redundancy analysis showed fish species densities were well separated by flow regime in both years. Periodic and opportunistic species were characteristic of Runoff/Intermittent Flashy streams, whereas mainly equilibrium species were characteristic of Groundwater Flashy streams. We found that spatial and temporal variation in hydrology had a strong influence on fish assemblage dynamics in Ozark streams with lower assemblage stability and greater fluctuations in density in more hydrologically variable streams and years. Understanding relationships between fish assemblage structure and hydrologic variation is vital for conservation of fish biodiversity. Future work should consider addressing how alteration of hydrologic variation will affect biotic assemblages.

Arkansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗
USGS2021

Multiple climate change-driven tipping points for coastal systems

As the climate evolves over the next century, the interaction of accelerating sea level rise (SLR) and storms, combined with confining development and infrastructure, will place greater stresses on physical, ecological, and human systems along the ocean-land margin. Many of these valued coastal systems could reach “tipping points,” at which hazard exposure substantially increases and threatens the present-day form, function, and viability of communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems. Determining the timing and nature of these tipping points is essential for effective climate adaptation planning. Here we present a multidisciplinary case study from Santa Barbara, California (USA), to identify potential climate change-related tipping points for various coastal systems. This study integrates numerical and statistical models of the climate, ocean water levels, beach and cliff evolution, and two soft sediment ecosystems, sandy beaches and tidal wetlands. We find that tipping points for beaches and wetlands could be reached with just 0.25 m or less of SLR (~ 2050), with > 50% subsequent habitat loss that would degrade overall biodiversity and ecosystem function. In contrast, the largest projected changes in socioeconomic exposure to flooding for five communities in this region are not anticipated until SLR exceeds 0.75 m for daily flooding and 1.5 m for storm-driven flooding (~ 2100 or later). These changes are less acute relative to community totals and do not qualify as tipping points given the adaptive capacity of communities. Nonetheless, the natural and human built systems are interconnected such that the loss of natural system function could negatively impact the quality of life of residents and disrupt the local economy, resulting in indirect socioeconomic impacts long before built infrastructure is directly impacted by flooding.

California↗
USGS2022

Freshwater unionid mussels threatened by predation of Round Goby (Neogobius melanostomus)

Indigenous freshwater mussels (Unionidae) are integral to riverine ecosystems, playing a pivotal role in aquatic food webs and providing ecological services. With populations on the decline worldwide, freshwater mussels are of conservation concern. In this study, we explore the propensity of the invasive Round Goby (Neogobius melanostomus) fish to prey upon indigenous freshwater mussels. First, we conducted lab experiments where Round Gobies were given the opportunity to feed on juvenile unionid mussels and macroinvertebrates, revealing rates and preferences of consumption. Several Round Gobies consumed whole freshwater mussels during these experiments, as confirmed by mussel counts and x-ray images of the fishes. Next, we investigated Round Gobies collected from stream habitats of the French Creek watershed, which is renowned for its unique and rich aquatic biodiversity. We developed a novel DNA metabarcoding method to identify the specific species of mussels consumed by Round Goby and provide a new database of DNA gene sequences for 25 indigenous unionid mussel species. Several of the fishes sampled had consumed indigenous mussels, including the Elktoe (non-endangered), Creeper (non-endangered), Long Solid (state endangered), and Rayed Bean (federally endangered) species. The invasive Round Goby poses a growing threat to unionid mussels, including species of conservation concern. The introduction of the invasive Round Goby to freshwaters of North America is shaping ecosystem transitions within the aquatic critical zone having widespread implications for conservation and management.

Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, West Virginia↗
USGS2022

Mangroves provide blue carbon ecological value at a low freshwater cost

“Blue carbon” wetland vegetation has a limited freshwater requirement. One type, mangroves, utilizes less freshwater during transpiration than adjacent terrestrial ecoregions, equating to only 43% (average) to 57% (potential) of evapotranspiration ( E T "> E T ). Here, we demonstrate that comparative consumptive water use by mangrove vegetation is as much as 2905 kL H 2 O ha −1 year −1 less than adjacent ecoregions with E c "> E c -to- E T "> E T ratios of 47–70%. Lower porewater salinity would, however, increase mangrove E c "> E c -to- E T "> E T ratios by affecting leaf-, tree-, and stand-level eco-physiological controls on transpiration. Restricted water use is also additive to other ecosystem services provided by mangroves, such as high carbon sequestration, coastal protection and support of biodiversity within estuarine and marine environments. Low freshwater demand enables mangroves to sustain ecological values of connected estuarine ecosystems with future reductions in freshwater while not competing with the freshwater needs of humans. Conservative water use may also be a characteristic of other emergent blue carbon wetlands.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2024

From eDNA to decisions using a multi-method approach to restoration planning in streams

Reintroduction efforts are increasingly used to mitigate biodiversity losses, but are frequently challenged by inadequate planning and uncertainty. High quality information about population status and threats can be used to prioritize reintroduction and restoration efforts and can transform ad hoc approaches into opportunities for improving conservation outcomes at a landscape scale. We conducted comprehensive environmental DNA (eDNA) and visual encounter surveys to determine the distribution of native and non-native aquatic species in two high-priority watersheds to address key uncertainties—such as the distribution of threats and the status of existing populations—inherent in restoration planning. We then used these occurrence data to develop a menu of potential conservation actions and a decision framework to benefit an endangered vertebrate (foothill yellow-legged frog, Rana boylii ) in dynamic stream systems. Our framework combines the strengths of multiple methods, allowing managers and conservation scientists to incorporate conservation science and site-specific knowledge into the planning process to increase the likelihood of achieving conservation goals.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2024

Ecological function maintained despite mesomammal declines

Mid-sized mammals (i.e., mesomammals) fulfill important ecological roles, serving as essential scavengers, predators, pollinators, and seed dispersers in the ecosystems they inhabit. Consequently, declines in mesomammal populations have the potential to alter ecological processes and fundamentally change ecosystems. However, ecosystems characterized by high functional redundancy, where multiple species can fulfil similar ecological roles, may be less impacted by the loss of mesomammals and other vertebrates. The Greater Everglades Ecosystem in southern Florida is a historically biodiverse region that has recently been impacted by multiple anthropogenic threats, most notably the introduction of the Burmese python ( Python molurus bivittatus ) . Since pythons became established, mesomammal populations have become greatly reduced. To assess whether these declines in mesomammals have affected two critical ecosystem functions—scavenging and frugivory—we conducted experiments in areas where mesomammals were present and absent. We did not observe significant differences in scavenging or frugivory efficiency in areas with and without mesomammals, but we did observe significant differences in the communities responsible for scavenging and frugivory. Despite the observed evidence of redundancy, the changes in community composition could potentially lead to indirect consequences on processes like seed dispersal and disease dynamics within this ecosystem, emphasizing the need for further study.

Florida↗
USGS2025

Precipitation timing mediates life-stage and population-level associations with climate for an indicator species

Global climate change is contributing to declines in biodiversity, although changes vary across geographic regions and species. The iconic greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage-grouse) is central to conservation within the North American sagebrush ecosystem, yet its vulnerability to climate effects remains poorly understood. We used hierarchical models to explore weather and climatic influences on sage-grouse across nearly four decades, focusing first on pattern (population change), then process (demographic life stage). We quantified eight indicators of temperature and/or moisture conditions across time lags of 0–1.5 years leading up to current year breeding activities. Sage-grouse population growth tended to increase following above-average growing season precipitation. Precipitation or drought timing influenced whether process effects were positive or negative. More summer and/or fall moisture corresponded with increases in subsequent year brood and adult survival, while concurrent seasonal drought led to reductions in nest survival. Positive concurrent spring drought associations with adult and brood survival were largely outweighed by positive prior year moisture effects. Density-dependence and indirect effects of precipitation through vegetation and forage resource pathways likely contributed to nuanced responses across life stages. Our research improves mechanistic understanding of this indicator species’ sensitivity to climatic factors, while reinforcing the importance of large-scale conservation initiatives for sagebrush ecosystems.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2025

Cryptic life history diversity supports endangered species recovery in an ultra-urbanized landscape

Urban landscapes are often overlooked in conservation planning, allowing human activities to take precedence in ecosystem management. However, even heavily modified environments can support diverse species profiles, but continued expansion of the human footprint could transform these biodiversity hotspots into ecological traps that serve as hidden catalysts for demographic declines. In the backdrop of one of the world’s most urbanized landscapes-New York City, USA—is a federally endangered population of shortnose sturgeon ( Acipenser brevirostrum ) that has been quietly recovering for several decades despite many demographic threats. Here, we identify a unique behavioral phenotype of shortnose sturgeon that occupies habitats in New York Harbor in late spring and fall, likely using the area to optimize bioenergetic processes. As this study highlights, urbanized environments can be a nexus for cryptic phenotypic diversity which, if overlooked, can disrupt eco-evolutionary processes and contribute to population and species loss.

New York↗
USGS2025

Movement patterns of invasive red swamp crayfish vary with sex and environmental factors

Invasive species disproportionately invade freshwater ecosystems, threatening biodiversity. Defining when, where, and why aquatic invasive species move can help inform management strategies, yet the movement ecology of some of the most pervasive invasive species remains unknown. Red swamp crayfish ( Procambarus clarkii ; RSC) are the most widespread invasive crayfish and negatively affect ecosystems worldwide. We employed high-dimensional acoustic telemetry to investigate the movement patterns of 24 individual RSC across three months in an invaded water body. We assessed the effects of various extrinsic factors, such as time of day, temperature, precipitation, and proximity to the water’s edge, along with intrinsic factors, such as sex, reproductive form, and size, at different scales, including movement steps, range distribution, and behavioral states. We found that movement patterns across all scales were overwhelmingly driven by sex and reproductive form. Furthermore, RSC showed increased overall activity at night and near the water’s edge. By establishing baseline movement patterns and identifying key contributing factors, these findings provide a foundation for the development of adaptive management strategies for controlling invasive RSC populations.

Michigan↗
USGS2026

Influence of new residential construction varying in housing density on bird species, human tolerance guilds, and communities

Human population growth and changing settlement patterns fuel the development of urban fringe lands worldwide, with implications for biodiversity. We conducted a 12-year study of birds in the fast-developing urban fringe lands of the central Puget Sound region, Washington, USA, to examine the effect of development configuration on birds. We hypothesized that lower-intensity conservation developments, compared to higher-intensity planned community developments, would benefit the overall bird community, as well as native forest birds (avoiders of human development) and avian generalist species (adapters to human development), but that higher-intensity planned community developments would benefit synanthropic species (exploiters of human development). We fit single-species and multi-species occupancy models to test these hypotheses. Consistent with our hypotheses, we found that a greater proportion of the overall community, avoiders, and adapters occupied lower-intensity conservation developments compared to higher-intensity planned community developments. However, we did not detect an effect of development type on the exploiter guild, and we found that species in the exploiter guild are variable in their response to the configuration of suburban developments. We also hypothesized that human tolerance guilds would be a useful predictor of individual species responses to development type. This hypothesis was somewhat supported: we found that, for avoiders, 87% of species in the guild had the same response to development type as the overall guild; for adapters, 63% had the same response as the overall guild, and for exploiters, only 44% had the same response as the overall guild. Our results indicate that the configuration of suburban developments can have a meaningful impact on bird communities, particularly on those species that are most sensitive to any level of development.

Washington↗
USGS2026

Bayesian belief network model to predict human-wildlife conflict in protected areas

Human-wildlife conflict (HWC) poses a pervasive global challenge, affecting livelihoods and threatening biodiversity. To better anticipate and mitigate HWC risk, we developed a large-scale predictive model using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN). We surveyed 1,011 park rangers across 135 terrestrial protected areas in three Andean countries, documenting recent HWC incidents involving wildlife persecution or killing, livestock depredation, crop damage, or threats to human safety and property. We identified key drivers of HWC risk, including governance, wildlife acceptance, participation, and habitat quality. A sensitivity analysis revealed that enhancing governance and improving wildlife acceptance could reduce HWC risk by > 85%. The BBN model demonstrated scalability, effectively identifying strategies to reduce HWC risk at multiple scales, from individual protected areas to national networks. Our findings highlight the importance of strengthening governance, increasing wildlife acceptance, and enhancing community participation in conservation efforts. BBNs provide a flexible, cost-effective, and data-driven tool to guide protected areas and wildlife managers in monitoring, anticipating, and making informed decisions to mitigate conflict and promote coexistence.

Scientific Reports↗
USGS2026

Rewilding the upper Klamath River Basin: Rapid recolonization of Chinook salmon following the world’s largest dam removal

Habitat fragmentation is a global driver of decline in biodiversity, yet evaluations of ecological response following re-connection remain rare. In 2024, four hydroelectric dams on the Klamath River were removed, reconnecting over 640 km of anadromous habitat and marking the largest dam removal project completed to date. We used a stationary high-resolution multi-beam imaging SONAR to quantify adult Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) passage into newly reopened reaches during the first two migratory seasons following dam removal. An estimated 7,742 (95% CI: 7,702–7,778) Chinook salmon migrated upstream in 2024 and 13,310 (95% CI: 12,876–13,733) in 2025, representing 18–19% of fish returning to the Klamath River Basin. Within this period, Chinook salmon recolonized 88% of their documented historical distribution, expanding into 345 km of reconnected habitats and reaching elevations of up to 1,250 m. Recolonization required fish to swim through dam removal sites, complex hydraulic corridors and engineered fishways, demonstrating the propensity for rapid recolonization at basin scale despite these challenges. These findings provide the first quantitative assessment of salmon response to the world’s largest dam removal and demonstrate how reconnection can catalyze large-scale recolonization in historically fragmented river networks.

California, Oregon↗
USGS2026

Enduring cultural legacies affect Euro-American wildlife values

Social values shape biodiversity conservation success. Yet information is lacking on how values form, change and adapt people to their environment. Our 33-nation survey in 2021–2023 ( n = 18,477) explored the effect of the institutions of European colonization on present-day values towards wildlife in the Americas. Here we found mutualism values (seeing wildlife as part of one’s social community) prevail in Iberian-origin Latin American countries, whereas domination values (seeing wildlife as a resource for human use) are more prevalent in British-origin North American countries. Multilevel analysis showed significant country-level effects of colonial institution (for example, colonial origin, Protestant versus Catholic religious cultures) and endowment (for example, pre-colonial population density, Indigenous ancestry, settler mortality) factors on wildlife values in the Americas. The strong mutualism emphasis in Latin America appears to be consistent with acculturation between the compatible ideologies of Indigenous peoples and the Iberian colonizers. The effectiveness of wildlife institutions and policies will depend on their congruence with the social values of publics being served.

Nature Sustainability↗
USGS2024

Mechanisms, detections, and impacts of species redistributions under climate change

Shifts in species distributions are a common ecological response to climate change, and global temperature rise is often hypothesized as the primary driver. However, the directions and rates of distribution shifts are highly variable across species, systems, and studies, complicating efforts to manage and anticipate biodiversity responses to anthropogenic change. In this Review, we summarize approaches to documenting species range shifts, discuss why observed range shifts often do not match our expectations, and explore the impacts of species range shifts on nature and society. The majority (59%) of documented range shifts are directionally consistent with climate change, based on the BioShifts database of range shift observations. However, many observed species have not shifted or have shifted in directions opposite to temperature-based expectations. These lagging or expectation-contrary shifts might be explained by additional biotic or abiotic factors driving range shifts, including additional non-temperature climatic drivers, habitat characteristics, and species interactions, which are not normally considered in range shift documentations. Understanding and managing range shifts will require increasing and connecting observational biological data, generalizing range shift patterns across systems, and predicting shifts at management-relevant timescales.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment↗