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At least 937 records · Page 52Linked to original sources

USGS2017

Influence of pore pressure change on coseismic volumetric strain

Coseismic strain is fundamentally important for understanding crustal response to changes of stress after earthquakes. The elastic dislocation model has been widely applied to interpreting observed shear deformation caused by earthquakes. The application of the same theory to interpreting volumetric strain, however, has met with difficulty, especially in the far field of earthquakes. Predicted volumetric strain with dislocation model often differs substantially, and sometimes of opposite signs, from observed coseismic volumetric strains. The disagreement suggests that some processes unaccounted for by the dislocation model may occur during earthquakes. Several hypotheses have been suggested, but none have been tested quantitatively. In this paper we first examine published data to highlight the difference between the measured and calculated static coseismic volumetric strains; we then use these data to provide quantitative test of the model that the disagreement may be explained by the change of pore pressure in the shallow crust. The test allows us to conclude that coseismic change of pore pressure may be an important mechanism for coseismic crustal strain and, in the far field, may even be the dominant mechanism. Thus in the interpretation of observed coseismic crustal strain, one needs to account not only for the elastic strain due to fault rupture but also for the strain due to coseismic change of pore pressure.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

USGS2016

Occurrence of triclocarban and triclosan in an agro-ecosystem following application of biosolids

Triclocarban (TCC) and triclosan (TCS), two of the most commonly used antimicrobial compounds, can be introduced into ecosystems by applying wastewater treatment plant biosolids to agricultural fields. Concentrations of TCC and TCS were measured in different trophic levels within a terrestrial food web encompassing land-applied biosolids, soil, earthworms ( Lumbricus ), deer mice ( Peromyscus maniculatus ), and eggs of European starlings ( Sturnus vulgaris ) and American kestrels ( Falco sparverius ) at an experimental site amended with biosolids for the previous 7 years. The samples from this site were compared to the same types of samples from a reference (biosolids-free) agricultural site. Inter-site comparisons showed that concentrations of both antimicrobials were higher on the experimental site in the soil, earthworms, mice (livers), and European starling eggs, but not American kestrel eggs, compared to the control site. Inter-species comparisons on the experimental site indicated significantly higher TCC concentrations in mice (TCC: 12.6–33.3 ng/g) and in starling eggs (TCC: 15.4–31.4 ng/g) than in kestrel eggs (TCC: 3.6 ng/g). Nesting success of kestrels only was significantly lower on the experimental site compared to the reference site due to nest abandonment. This study demonstrates that biosolids-derived TCC and TCS are present throughout the terrestrial food web, including secondary (e.g., starlings) and tertiary (i.e., kestrels) consumers, after repeated, long-term biosolids application.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2024

Applying portfolio theory to benefit endangered amphibians in coastal wetlands threatened by climate change, high uncertainty, and significant investment risk

The challenge of selecting strategies to adapt to climate change is complicated by the presence of irreducible uncertainties regarding future conditions. Decisions regarding long-term investments in conservation actions contain significant risk of failure due to these inherent uncertainties. To address this challenge, decision makers need an arsenal of sophisticated but practical tools to help guide spatial conservation strategies. Theory asserts that managing risks can be achieved by diversifying an investment portfolio to include assets – such as stocks and bonds – that respond inversely to one another under a given set of conditions. We demonstrate an approach for formalizing the diversification of conservation assets (land parcels) and actions (restoration, species reintroductions) by using correlation structure to quantify the degree of risk for any proposed management investment. We illustrate a framework for identifying future habitat refugia by integrating species distribution modeling, scenarios of climate change and sea level rise, and impacts to critical habitat. Using the plains coqui ( Eleutherodactylus juanariveroi ), an endangered amphibian known from only three small wetland populations on Puerto Rico’s coastal plains, we evaluate the distribution of potential refugia under two model parameterizations and four future sea-level rise scenarios. We then apply portfolio theory using two distinct objective functions and eight budget levels to inform investment strategies for mitigating risk and increasing species persistence probability. Models project scenario-specific declines in coastal freshwater wetlands from 2% to nearly 30% and concurrent expansions of transitional marsh and estuarine open water. Conditional on the scenario, island-wide species distribution is predicted to contract by 25% to 90%. Optimal portfolios under the first objective function – benefit maximization – emphasizes translocating frogs to existing protected areas rather than investing in the protection of new habitat. Alternatively, optimal strategies using the second objective function – a risk-benefit tradeoff framework – include significant investment to protect parcels for the purpose of reintroduction or establishing new populations. These findings suggest that leveraging existing protected areas for species persistence, while less costly, may contain excessive risk and could result in diminished conservation benefits. Although our modeling includes numerous assumptions and simplifications, we believe this framework provides useful inference for exploring resource dynamics and developing robust adaptation strategies using an approach that is generalizable to other conservation problems which are spatial or portfolio in nature and subject to unresolvable uncertainty.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS2019

Managing dams for energy and fish tradeoffs: What does a win-win solution take?

Management activities to restore endangered fish species, such as dam removals, fishway installations, and periodic turbine shutdowns, usually decrease hydropower generation capacities at dams. Quantitative analysis of the tradeoffs between energy production and fish population recovery related to dam decision-making is still lacking. In this study, an integrated hydropower generation and age-structured fish population model was developed using a system dynamics modeling method to assess basin-scale energy-fish tradeoffs under eight dam management scenarios. This model ran across 150 years on a daily time step, applied to five hydroelectric dams located in the main stem of the Penobscot River, Maine. We used alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) to be representative of the local diadromous fish populations to link projected hydropower production with theoretical influences on migratory fish populations on the model river system. Our results show that while the five dams can produce around 427 GWh/year of energy, without fishway installations they would contribute to a 90% reduction in the alewife spawner abundance. The effectiveness of fishway installations is largely influenced by the size of reopened habitat areas and the actual passage rate of the fishways. Homing to natal habitat has an insignificant effect on the growth of the simulated spawner abundance. Operating turbine shutdowns during alewives' peak downstream migration periods, in addition to other dam management strategies, can effectively increase the spawner abundance by 480–550% while also preserving 65% of the hydropower generation capacity. These data demonstrate that in a river system where active hydropower dams operate, a combination of dam management strategies at the basin scale can best balance the tradeoff between energy production and the potential for migratory fish population recovery.

Maine↗

USGS2006

Abundance of ringed seals ( Pusa hispida ) in the fjords of Spitsbergen, Svalbard, during the peak molting period

Ringed seal ( Pusa hispida ) abundance in Spitsbergen, Svalbard, was estimated during the peak molting period via aerial, digital photographic surveys. A total of 9,145 images, covering 41.7%–100% of the total fast-ice cover (1,496 km 2 ) of 18 different fjords and bays, were inspected for the presence of ringed seals. A total of 1,708 seals were counted, and when accounting for ice areas that were not covered by images, a total of 3,254 (95% CI: 3,071–3,449) ringed seals were estimated to be hauled out during the surveys. Extensive behavioral data from radio-tagged ringed seals (collected in a companion study) from one of the highest density fjords during the molting period were used to create a model that predicts the proportion of seals hauled out on any given date, time of day, and under various meteorological conditions. Applying this model to the count data from each fjord, we estimated that a total of 7,585 (95% CI: 6,332–9,085) ringed seals were present in the surveyed area during the peak molting period. Data on interannual variability in ringed seal abundance suggested higher numbers of seals in Van Keulenfjorden in 2002 compared to 2003, while other fjords with very stable ice cover showed no statistical differences. Poor ice conditions in general in 2002 probably resulted in seals from a wide area coming to Van Keulenfjorden (a large fjord with stable ice in 2002). The total estimated number of ringed seals present in the study area at the time of the survey must be regarded as a population index, or at least a minimum estimate for the area, because it does not account for individuals leaving and arriving, which might account for a considerable number of animals. The same situation is likely the case for many other studies reporting aerial census data for ringed seals. To achieve accurate estimates of population sizes from aerial surveys, more extensive knowledge of ringed seal behavior will be required.

Marine Mammal Science↗

USGS2022

Watershed-scale risk to aquatic organisms from complex chemical mixtures in the Shenandoah River

River waters contain complex chemical mixtures derived from natural and anthropogenic sources. Aquatic organisms are exposed to the entire chemical composition of the water, resulting in potential effects at the organismal through ecosystem level. This study applied a holistic approach to assess landscape, hydrological, chemical, and biological variables. On-site mobile laboratory experiments were conducted to evaluate biological effects of exposure to chemical mixtures in the Shenandoah River Watershed. A suite of 534 inorganic and organic constituents were analyzed, of which 273 were detected. A watershed-scale accumulated wastewater model was developed to predict environmental concentrations of chemicals derived from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) to assess potential aquatic organism exposure for all stream reaches in the watershed. Measured and modeled concentrations generally were within a factor of 2. Ecotoxicological effects from exposure to individual components of the chemical mixture were evaluated using risk quotients (RQs) based on measured or predicted environmental concentrations and no effect concentrations or chronic toxicity threshold values. Seventy-two percent of the compounds had RQ values <0.1, indicating limited risk from individual chemicals. However, when individual RQs were aggregated into a risk index, most stream reaches receiving WWTP effluent posed potential risk to aquatic organisms from exposure to complex chemical mixtures.

Virginia↗

USGS2010

Detecting temporal trends in species assemblages with bootstrapping procedures and hierarchical models

Quantifying patterns of temporal trends in species assemblages is an important analytical challenge in community ecology. We describe methods of analysis that can be applied to a matrix of counts of individuals that is organized by species (rows) and time-ordered sampling periods (columns). We first developed a bootstrapping procedure to test the null hypothesis of random sampling from a stationary species abundance distribution with temporally varying sampling probabilities. This procedure can be modified to account for undetected species. We next developed a hierarchical model to estimate species-specific trends in abundance while accounting for species-specific probabilities of detection. We analysed two long-term datasets on stream fishes and grassland insects to demonstrate these methods. For both assemblages, the bootstrap test indicated that temporal trends in abundance were more heterogeneous than expected under the null model. We used the hierarchical model to estimate trends in abundance and identified sets of species in each assemblage that were steadily increasing, decreasing or remaining constant in abundance over more than a decade of standardized annual surveys. Our methods of analysis are broadly applicable to other ecological datasets, and they represent an advance over most existing procedures, which do not incorporate effects of incomplete sampling and imperfect detection.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B:↗

USGS2007

Biodegradation of PAHs and PCBs in soils and sludges

Results from a multi-year, pilot-scale land treatment project for PAHs and PCBs biodegradation were evaluated. A mathematical model, capable of describing sorption, sequestration, and biodegradation in soil/water systems, is applied to interpret the efficacy of a sequential active-passive biotreatment process of organic chemicals on remediation sites. To account for the recalcitrance of PAHs and PCBs in soils and sludges during long-term biotreatment, this model comprises a kinetic equation for organic chemical intraparticle sequestration process. Model responses were verified by comparison to measurements of biodegradation of PAHs and PCBs in land treatment units; a favorable match was found between them. Model simulations were performed to predict on-going biodegradation behavior of PAHs and PCBs in land treatment units. Simulation results indicate that complete biostabilization will be achieved when the concentration of reversibly sorbed chemical (S RA) reduces to undetectable levels, with a certain amount of irreversibly sequestrated residual chemical (S IA) remaining within the soil particle solid phase. The residual fraction (S IA) tends to lose its original chemical and biological activity, and hence, is much less available, toxic, and mobile than the "free" compounds. Therefore, little or no PAHs and PCBs will leach from the treatment site and constitutes no threat to human health or the environment. Biotreatment of PAHs and PCBs can be terminated accordingly. Results from the pilot-scale testing data and model calculations also suggest that a significant fraction (10-30%) of high-molecular-weight PAHs and PCBs could be sequestrated and become unavailable for biodegradation. Bioavailability (large K d , i.e., slow desorption rate) is the key factor limiting the PAHs degradation. However, both bioavailability and bioactivity (K in Monod kinetics, i.e., number of microbes, nutrients, and electron acceptor, etc.) regulate PCBs biodegradation. The sequential active-passive biotreatment can be a cost-effective approach for remediation of highly hydrophobic organic contaminants. The mathematical model proposed here would be useful in the design and operation of such organic chemical biodegradation processes on remediation sites. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Water, Air, & Soil Pollution↗

USGS1988

Trace element residues in bluegills and common carp from the lower San Joaquin River, California, and its tributaries

Whole-body samples of bluegills (Lepomis macrochirus) and common carp (Cyprinus carpio) from the San Joaquin River and two tributaries (Merced River and Salt Slough) were analyzed to determine if the concentrations of any of nine elements were elevated as a result of exposure of the fish to agricultural subsurface (tile) drainage water. Highest concentrations (μg/g dry weight) detected were as follows (first number in each pair applies to bluegills and the second to carp): arsenic (As), 0.97 and 1.5; boron (B), 14 and 20; cadmium (Cd), 0.14 and 0.27; chromium (Cr), 2.7 and 2.2; mercury (hg), 3.3 and 2.9; molybdenum (Mo), 2.8 and 3.6; nickel (Ni), 0.87 and 2.2; lead (Pb), 0.26 and 2.3; and selenium (Se), 3.2 and 5.5. The lowest concentrations were below the levels of detection, except for Hg (0.15 in bluegills and 0.12 in carp) and Se (0.43 and 0.56). As judged by comparisons with data from the National Contaminant Biomonitoring Program and other published surveys, the concentrations of B, Hg, Mo, and Se were moderately elevated in fish from several sites in the San Joaquin Valley. However, only the Se concentrations were positively correlated with water quality variables (e.g., total alkalinity, conductivity, and turbidity) known to be influenced by irrigation return flows. Historical data from one site (Salt Slough), where trace elements in whole fish have been measured since 1969, indicated that Se concentrations increased more than twofold between 1973 and 1977, but thereafter remained near 3.0 μg g−1 (dry weight basis), presumably due to the continuing practice of disposing seleniferous tile drainage water into the most convenient stream channel.

California↗

USGS2004

2,3,7,8-TCDD effects on visual structure and function in swim-up rainbow trout

An understanding of mechanisms of contaminant effects across levels of biological organization is essential in ecotoxicology if we are to generate predictive models for population-level effects. We applied a suite of biochemical, histological, and behavioral end points related to visual structure and function and foraging behavior to evaluate effects of 2,3,7,8-Tetrachlorodibenzo- p -dioxin (TCDD) on swim-up rainbow trout. We detected a dose-dependent decrease in densities of retinal ganglion cells (RGC), key retinal neurons that link the eye with the brain. These changes resulted in corresponding deficits in visual/motor function including reductions in visual acuity and in scotopic and photopic thresholds due to TCDD. The loss of RGCs suggests an increase in convergence of synapses from photoreceptors to RGCs as a cellular mechanism for the visual deficits. Dose-dependent increases in immunohistochemical detection of CYP1A protein in the vasculature of the brain and eye choroid was proportional with decreased ganglion cell densities in the retina. TCDD-induced AHR-regulated effects on these tissues might be involved in the detected decrease in ganglion cell densities. Prey capture rate decreased after TCDD exposure only at the highest treatment groups evaluated. Collectively, these results show that TCDD causes biochemical and structural changes in the eye and brain of rainbow trout that are associated with behavioral deficits leading to decreased individual fitness.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2011

Flow speed estimated by inverse modeling of sandy sediment deposited by the 29 September 2009 tsunami near Satitoa, east Upolu, Samoa

Sandy deposits from the 29 September 2009 tsunami on the east coast of Upolu, Samoa were investigated to document their characteristics and used to apply an inverse sediment transport model to estimate tsunami flow speed. Sandy deposits 6 to 15 cm thick formed from ~ 25 to ~ 250 m inland. Sedimentary layers in the deposits, that are defined by vertical grain size variation and contacts, are interpreted to have formed during onshore runup of two waves. Deposits at 3 locations (100, 170, and 240 m inland) contained two layers that are predominately normally graded (~ 80%), but contained massive sections (~ 15%) and inversely graded sections (~ 5%) at their bases. About 75% of the total thickness of normally graded intervals exhibits a signature of sediment falling out of suspension at their top. This type of grading, termed suspension grading here, was first recognized in turbidity current deposits and is characterized by the entire distribution shifting finer upwards in a layer as high-settling velocity, coarser material deposits first and low-settling velocity finer material deposits last. The Jaffe and Gelfenbaum (2007) inverse sediment transport model was applied to intervals within layers that exhibited suspension grading to estimate tsunami flow speed and was able to reproduce the general trends of the observed suspension grading. A key unknown input in the modeling is the bottom roughness. For a bottom roughness parameterization using a Manning's n of 0.03 (equivalent to a z 0 ~ 0.006 m for the observed flow depths of 2–3 m) flow speeds calculated for the 2 layers at the 3 locations were 3.8, 3.6, and 3.7 m/s (bottom layer/earlier wave) and 4.4, 4.4, and 4.1 m/s (top layer/later wave) at 100, 170, and 240 m inland, respectively. These estimates are consistent with the ~ 3–8 m/s tsunami flow speed from boulder transport calculations and result in Froude numbers of ~ 0.7–1.0 when maximum measured flow depths are used. Because the inverse model assumes the deposit was formed by sediment falling out of suspension care must be taken to model only intervals of the deposit exhibiting suspension grading. Including intervals deposited by either bedload or suspended load transport convergences result in higher, and sometimes unrealistic, tsunami flow speed estimates.

Satitoa, Upolu↗

USGS2019

Influences of spawning timing, water temperature, and climatic warming on early life history phenology in western Alaska sockeye salmon

We applied an empirical model to predict hatching and emergence timing for 25 western Alaska sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) populations in four lake-nursery systems to explore current patterns and potential responses of early life history phenology to warming water temperatures. Given experienced temperature regimes during development, we predicted hatching to occur in as few as 58 d to as many as 260 d depending on spawning timing and temperature. For a focal lake spawning population, our climate-lake temperature model predicted a water temperature increase of 0.7 to 1.4 °C from 2015 to 2099 during the incubation period, which translated to a 16 d to 30 d earlier hatching timing. The most extreme scenarios of warming advanced development by approximately a week earlier than historical minima and thus climatic warming may lead to only modest shifts in phenology during the early life history stage of this population. The marked variation in the predicted timing of hatching and emergence among populations in close proximity on the landscape may serve to buffer this metapopulation from climate change.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2025

Technical note: A low-cost approach to monitoring relative streamflow dynamics in small headwater streams using time lapse imagery and a deep learning model

Despite their ubiquity and importance as freshwater habitat, small headwater streams are under-monitored by existing stream gage networks. To address this gap, we describe a low-cost, non-contact, and low-effort method that enables organizations to monitor relative streamflow dynamics in small headwater streams. The method uses a camera to capture repeat images of the stream from a fixed position. A person then annotates pairs of images, in each case indicating which image has more apparent streamflow or indicating equal flow if no difference is discernible. A deep learning modeling framework called streamflow rank estimation (SRE) is then trained on the annotated image pairs and applied to rank all images from highest to lowest apparent streamflow. From this result a relative hydrograph can be derived. We found that our modeled relative hydrograph dynamics matched the observed hydrograph dynamics well for 11 cameras at 8 streamflow sites in western Massachusetts. Higher performance was observed during the annotation period (median Kendall's Tau rank correlation of 0.75, with a range of 0.6–0.83) than after it (median Kendall's Tau of 0.59, with range 0.34–0.74). We found that annotation performance was generally consistent across the 11 camera sites and 2 individual annotators and was positively correlated with streamflow variability at a site. A scaling simulation determined that model performance improvements were limited after 1000 annotation pairs. Our model's estimates of relative flow, while not equivalent to absolute flow, may still be useful for many applications, such as ecological modeling and calculating event-based hydrological statistics (e.g., the number of out-of-bank floods). We anticipate that this method will be a valuable tool to extend existing stream monitoring networks and provide new insights on dynamic headwater systems.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2019

Streamflow gains and losses in New Fork and Green Rivers, upstream from Fontenelle Reservoir, Wyoming, October 2015

The Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative is a program created to implement a long-term, science-based program of assessing natural resources while facilitating responsible energy and other development and does studies in much of southwestern Wyoming, including all or parts of Lincoln, Sublette, Fremont, Sweetwater, and Carbon Counties. A synoptic study was completed by the U.S. Geological Survey as part of ongoing contributions to the Wyoming Landscape Conservation Initiative to better understand the streamflow dynamics in the New Fork and Green Rivers in an area with historical, current, and future energy development. Streamflow measurements were collected October 19–22, 2015, at 19 sites on the New Fork and Green Rivers in Wyoming to determine changes in streamflow and, where applicable, describe the inflow and outflow of groundwater. Streamflow in the New Fork River generally increased from 50 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s) at the most upstream site near Pinedale, Wyoming, to 350 ft 3 /s at the mouth of the river. Streamflow in the Green River generally increased downstream from 250 ft 3 /s at the most upstream site at Warren Bridge to around 800 ft 3 /s at the most downstream site near La Barge, Wyo., upstream from Fontenelle Reservoir. Estimated streamflow gains and losses were calculated for five reaches on the New Fork River. Four of the five reaches on the New Fork River had a change greater than the associated measurement error and were gaining reaches; the reach with the largest gain was the most upstream reach. One reach, the most downstream reach, had a calculated change in streamflow less than the associated measurement error. Estimated streamflow gains and losses were calculated for four reaches on the Green River. One reach was determined to be a gaining reach, one was a losing reach, and two reaches had changes less than the associated measurement error. Comparing the annual streamflow hydrographs for three long-term streamgages likely showed the effects of applying irrigation water to the upstream areas of land draining to the Green and New Fork Rivers. Streamflows in the New Fork River near Big Piney and the Green River near La Barge, Wyo., are sustained later in the season compared to the upstream site of Green River at Warren Bridge, which has few diversions and minimal irrigation.

Wyoming↗

USGS2020

Variation of lead isotopic composition and atomic weight in terrestrial materials (IUPAC Technical Report)

The isotopic composition and atomic weight of lead are variable in terrestrial materials because its three heaviest stable isotopes are stable end-products of the radioactive decay of uranium ( 238 U to 206 Pb; 235 U to 207 Pb) and thorium ( 232 Th to 208 Pb). The lightest stable isotope, 204 Pb, is primordial. These variations in isotope ratios and atomic weights provide useful information in many areas of science, including geochronology, archaeology, environmental studies, and forensic science. While elemental lead can serve as an abundant and homogeneous isotopic reference, deviations from the isotope ratios in other lead occurrences limit the accuracy with which a standard atomic weight can be given for lead. In a comprehensive review of several hundred publications and analyses of more than 8000 samples, published isotope data indicate that the lowest reported lead atomic weight of a normal terrestrial materials is 206.1462 ± 0.0028 ( k = 2), determined for a growth of the phosphate mineral monazite around a garnet relic from an Archean high-grade metamorphic terrain in north-western Scotland, which contains mostly 206 Pb and almost no 204 Pb. The highest published lead atomic weight is 207.9351 ± 0.0005 ( k = 2) for monazite from a micro-inclusion in a garnet relic, also from a high-grade metamorphic terrain in north-western Scotland, which contains almost pure radiogenic 208 Pb. When expressed as an interval, the lead atomic weight is [206.14, 207.94]. It is proposed that a value of 207.2 be adopted for the single lead atomic-weight value for education, commerce, and industry, corresponding to previously published conventional atomic-weight values.

Pure and Applied Chemistry↗

USGS2017

Cross-scale assessment of potential habitat shifts in a rapidly changing climate

We assessed the ability of climatic, environmental, and anthropogenic variables to predict areas of high-risk for plant invasion and consider the relative importance and contribution of these predictor variables by considering two spatial scales in a region of rapidly changing climate. We created predictive distribution models, using Maxent, for three highly invasive plant species (Canada thistle, white sweetclover, and reed canarygrass) in Alaska at both a regional scale and a local scale. Regional scale models encompassed southern coastal Alaska and were developed from topographic and climatic data at a 2 km (1.2 mi) spatial resolution. Models were applied to future climate (2030). Local scale models were spatially nested within the regional area; these models incorporated physiographic and anthropogenic variables at a 30 m (98.4 ft) resolution. Regional and local models performed well (AUC values > 0.7), with the exception of one species at each spatial scale. Regional models predict an increase in area of suitable habitat for all species by 2030 with a general shift to higher elevation areas; however, the distribution of each species was driven by different climate and topographical variables. In contrast local models indicate that distance to right-of-ways and elevation are associated with habitat suitability for all three species at this spatial level. Combining results from regional models, capturing long-term distribution, and local models, capturing near-term establishment and distribution, offers a new and effective tool for highlighting at-risk areas and provides insight on how variables acting at different scales contribute to suitability predictions. The combinations also provides easy comparison, highlighting agreement between the two scales, where long-term distribution factors predict suitability while near-term do not and vice versa.

Alaska↗

USGS1970

Nuclear methods applied to uranium geochemistry

Stable and radioactive daughter products produced from nuclear disintegrations of uranium have proved useful in fundamental studies of the geochemistry of uranium in igneous rock and sedimentary environments and in ore deposits. Information gained from geochemical studies of uranium migration has been used to develop models for attempts to date archeological, geological, and oceanographic environments represented by samples of bone, wood, charcoal, continental and marine carbonates, marine sediments, and glacially derived soils. Recent improvements of nuclear instrumentation and techniques allowed accurate measurements of natural radioactive isotopes, and it is now believed that radioactive equilibrium between the long-lived isotopes of the two uranium decay series is more the exception than the rule in nature. It was assumed that the 234U and 238U isotopes were in equilibrium until Thurber confirmed that considerable separation between 234U daughter and 238U parent exists in nature. It now has been documented that the 234U content may range from 60% deficient to 500% in excess relative to 238U. An excess of 15% of 234U isotope in sea water is well documented. A summary of previous work has shown that geochemical fractionation of the radioactive nuclides in 238U and 235U decay series takes place in the hydrologic environment, resulting in depletion of 230Th and 231Pa with respect to their parents, 238U, 234U, and 235U, in water and a complementary enrichment of these daughter nuclides in some sediments. Subsequent assimilation of Uranium, essentially free of radioactive daughters, occurs in some specific types of deposits such as carbonates and phosphates.

IEEE Transactions on Nuclear Science↗

USGS2026

Spatio-temporal modeling for assessing geoenergy resources: A workflow applied to gas in place variation in coal beds

The ability to estimate spatio-temporal changes in hydrocarbon reservoir properties and energy resources within pore volumes is essential for optimizing production, reservoir management, geologic energy storage, and safety in underground mining operations. In coal seams, predicting remaining methane gas-in-place (GIP) is critical for quantifying producible gas and improving mine safety and productivity through effective ventilation planning. Although such changes are commonly evaluated using physics-based numerical simulation models, these approaches often require extensive data, calibration effort, and time. This study presents a spatio-temporal geostatistical modeling approach that bridges the gap between purely spatial models and full numerical simulations. The method is applied to a case study of coal seam degasification in the Mary Lee coal group, Black Warrior Basin, Alabama, USA, to estimate GIP evolution over time within a selected mining district. The analysis uses published data from prior natural gas production history-matching of degasification using vertical wells. Empirical spatial and temporal statistics were calculated for reservoir pressure and water saturation, and spatio-temporal variogram models were fitted to experimental variograms. These models provided the structural basis for spatio-temporal kriging, integrated with spatial estimates of time-invariant parameters (porosity, density, and thickness) to estimate GIP. This approach enabled estimation of GIP changes over time, including periods without data. Boxplots of GIP estimates indicated systematic depletion and decreasing spatial variability, reflecting the impacts of degasification. Comparison with cumulative gas production from empirical well records showed approximately 85% agreement based on a relative similarity metric. Spatio-temporal GIP estimates were also used to estimate methane emissions to longwall ventilation systems and compared with reported emissions from the U.S. EPA Greenhouse Gas Reporting Program, showing similar distributions (≈80%) given data limitations. Overall, this integrated modeling approach provides time-dependent GIP estimates with broader implications for resource assessment applications.

Alabama↗