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An introduction to current climate projections and their use in climate impacts research

Using climate projections to evaluate future climate impacts and their associated risks requires a background knowledge of the nature of climate change, use of climate models to develop future projections, and knowledge of how to address climate scenario uncertainty. This chapter provides an overview of climate and climate change, some of the foundational climate science that underlies current climate change assessments, and a brief introduction to climate models and climate scenario uncertainty. Global projections of temperature and precipitation changes from the recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) and a brief comparison to the prior assessment (AR5) are provided. The main sources of uncertainty in these projections include climate variability, climate model differences and treatment of scientific knowledge gaps, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. When projections are downscaled to local resolution, downscaling is an additional source of uncertainty. These uncertainties can be incorporated in assessments of climate impacts by choosing a range of scenarios that directly address the sources of uncertainty. Evaluating the likelihood of a given climate impact on animal health or management strategies requires consideration of the main sources of climate projection uncertainties. Adaptation requires consideration of global-to-regional contexts of climate changes and impacts, but also adaptive capacity.

Book chapter↗

Workgroup report: Drinking-water nitrate and health - Recent findings and research needs

Human alteration of the nitrogen cycle has resulted in steadily accumulating nitrate in our water resources. The U.S. maximum contaminant level and World Health Organization guidelines for nitrate in drinking water were promulgated to protect infants from developing methemoglobinemia, an acute condition. Some scientists have recently suggested that the regulatory limit for nitrate is overly conservative; however, they have not thoroughly considered chronic health outcomes. In August 2004, a symposium on drinking-water nitrate and health was held at the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology meeting to evaluate nitrate exposures and associated health effects in relation to the current regulatory limit. The contribution of drinking-water nitrate toward endogenous formation of N-nitroso compounds was evaluated with a focus toward identifying subpopulations with increased rates of nitrosation. Adverse health effects may be the result of a complex interaction of the amount of nitrate ingested, the concomitant ingestion of nitrosation cofactors and precursors, and specific medical conditions that increase nitrosation. Workshop participants concluded that more experimental studies are needed and that a particularly fruitful approach may be to conduct epidemiologic studies among susceptible subgroups with increased endogenous nitrosation. The few epidemiologic studies that have evaluated intake of nitrosation precursors and/or nitrosation inhibitors have observed elevated risks for colon cancer and neural tube defects associated with drinking-water nitrate concentrations below the regulatory limit. The role of drinking-water nitrate exposure as a risk factor for specific cancers, reproductive outcomes, and other chronic health effects must be studied more thoroughly before changes to the regulatory level for nitrate in drinking water can be considered.

Environmental Health Perspectives↗

Climate impacts to inland fishes: Shifting research topics over time

Climate change remains a primary threat to inland fishes and fisheries. Using topic modeling to examine trends and relationships across 36 years of scientific literature on documented and projected climate impacts to inland fish, we identify ten representative topics within this body of literature: assemblages, climate scenarios, distribution, climate drivers, population growth, invasive species, populations, phenology, physiology, and reproduction. These topics are largely similar to the output from artificial intelligence application (i.e., ChatGPT) search prompts, but with some key differences. The field of climate impacts on fish has seen dramatic growth since the mid-2000s with increasing popularity of topics related to drivers, assemblages, and phenology. The topics were generally well-dispersed with little overlap of common words, apart from phenology and reproduction which were closely clustered. Pairwise comparisons between topics revealed potential gaps in the literature including between reproduction and distribution and between physiology and phenology. A better understanding of these relationships can help capitalize on existing literature to inform conservation and sustainable management of inland fishes with a changing climate.

PLOS Climate↗

HRSC on Mars Express: Photogrammetric and cartographic research

The High Resolution Stereo Camera (HRSC) on the European spacecraft Mars Express is the first camera on a planetary mission especially designed for photogrammetric and cartographic purposes. Since January 2004 the camera has been taking image data from the Martian surface, characterized by high-resolution, stereo capability and color. These data provide an enormous potential for the generation of 3D surface models, color orthoimages, topographic and thematic maps, and additional products. The image data acquired undergo calibration and systematic processing to orthoimages and 3D data products. Within the international HRSC Science Team the members of the Photogrammetric/Cartographic Working Group are concerned with further refinements in order to achieve highest quality data products. These activities comprise improvements of the exterior orientation of the camera, various approaches to enhance DTM quality, and the generation of maps in the standard scale of 1:200 000 and larger scales as well. The paper reports on these activities and the results achieved so far .

Photogrammetric Engineering and Remote Sensing↗

Environmental contaminant studies by the Patuxent Wildlife Research Center

Evaluation of the effects of environmental contaminants on wildlife is geared to interpreting events in the field, especially population effects, and both field and laboratory studies are planned for this purpose; procedures are adapted to specific problems and therefore do not include strict protocols or routine testing. Field evaluations include measurements of cholinesterase inhibition in brain or blood, search for dead or disabled animals, study of nesting success of birds, and general ecological observations. Residue analyses are used in evaluating organochlorine chemicals; samples may include whole bodies for determining level of exposure, brains for mortality diagnosis, whole blood for certain special studies, and eggs to help in evaluation of possible reproductive effects. Bird counts, singing-male census counts, small mammal trapping, and cage-in-field tests have proven to be ineffective or misleading and are not considered suitable for field evaluations under most circumstances. Usefulness of simulated field trials is limited to very special situations. Experimental studies that help predict and interpret field effects include determinations of lethal diagnostic levels, comparative lethal dietary toxicity tests, tests of secondary poisoning, measurement of residue loss rates, measurement of blood enzymes, tests of behavioral effects, and studies of reproductive effects.

Maryland↗

Landscapes to riverscapes: bridging the gap between research and conservation of stream fishes

Rivers and streams, by their very nature long ribbons of aquatic habitat, are inherently difficult to study. Approaching the banks of a flowing-water (lotic) system, one can see only a short fragment of the entire stream, from one bend to another, and can gain little appreciation for important features that lie beyond view. Moreover, materials transported downstream by the flow, and organisms traveling up or down the hydraulic highway, are soon gone from the reach and the opportunity to study them is often lost. Lakes present their own challenges for study, but by contrast to streams, one can usually see large expanses from shore that encompass all major habitats needed for aquatic organisms to complete their life history, such as gravel shoals, beds of aquatic vegetation, and open water habitats

BioScience↗

Interface between black-footed ferret research and operational conservation

Questions and problems that emerged during operational conservation of black-footed ferrets ( Mustela nigripes ) have been addressed by a wide variety of studies. Early results from such studies often were communicated orally during meetings of recovery groups and in written form using memoranda, unpublished reports, and theses. Typically, implementation of results preceded their publication in widely distributed journals. Many of these studies eventually were published in journals, and we briefly summarize the contents of 8 volumes and special features of journals that have been dedicated to the biology of ferrets and issues in ferret recovery. This year marks the 30th anniversary of rediscovery of the black-footed ferret, and the 7 papers of the following Special Feature summarize data collected over nearly that span of time.

Journal of Mammalogy↗

A technique to produce aluminum color bands for avian research

We developed a technique to produce metal (aluminum) color bands, in response to concerns about leg injuries caused by celluloid-plastic color bands applied to Willow Flycatchers ( Empidonax traillii ). The technique involves color-anodized aluminum bands (unnumbered blanks and federal numbered bands), with auto pin-striping tape and flexible epoxy sealant, to create a variety of solid, half- and triple-split colors. This allows for hundreds of unique, high-contrast color combinations. During six consecutive years of application, these colored metal bands have resisted color fade compared to conventional celluloid-plastic bands, and have reduced leg injuries in the flycatcher. Although not necessarily warranted for all color-banding studies, these metal bands may provide a lower-impact option for studies of species known to be impacted by plastic color bands.

Journal of Field Ornithology↗

A decade of Indigenous knowledge research in the Yukon River basin: Reflection on “Indigenous observations of change in the lower Yukon River basin, Alaska”

Herman-Mercer reflects on her first article" Indigenous Observations of Change in the Lower Yukon River Basin, Alaska." The observations and knowledge presented in this study have become part of an ever-growing catalog of studies representing, and part of a chorus of Indigenous communities across the Arctic and Subarctic conveying, the impacts of climate change in this region. The broad observations of environmental change reported in Indigenous Observations 2011, including impacts to subsistence and safety, are more dire and apparent than ten years ago when this article was published. Instances of diseased salmon continue to be reported by subsistence fishers, and the salmon runs have declined so severely since Indigenous Observations 2011 was published that there have been several years in which the commercial and or the subsistence salmon fishery was closed on the Yukon River, with impacts to household economies, food security, and culture. The then-new dangers associated with travel on river ice continue to be a concern across the Yukon River where the thinner river ice and inconsistent freeze up and break up have become the norm.

Alaska↗

Statistical methods used in research concerning endangered and threatened animal species of Puerto Rico: A meta-study

A concern about statistics in wildlife studies, particularly of endangered and threatened species, is whether the data collected meet the assumptions necessary for the use of parametric statistics. This study identified published papers on the nine endangered and six threatened species found only on Puerto Rico using five different databases. The results from the Zoological Record database identified the most articles, including all identified by the other databases. Of the 222 identified articles, 108 included some form of statistics, 26 used only descriptive statistics, 34 included only parametric statistics, 26 used only nonparametric statistics, and 22 reported both parametric and nonparametric statistical analyses. This meta-study showed that the percentage of articles with no statistical treatment decreased in the most recent 20 years, and that although parametric statistics continue to be the most commonly used in published wildlife studies of Puerto Rican wildlife, there has been a distinct increase in the use of nonparametric statistics over time.

Caribbean Journal of Science↗

Assessing simulated ecosystem processes for climate variability research at Glacier National Park, USA

Glacier National Park served as a test site for ecosystem analyses that involved a suite of integrated models embedded within a geographic information system. The goal of the exercise was to provide managers with maps that could illustrate probable shifts in vegetation, net primary production (NPP), and hydrologic responses associated with two selected climatic scenarios. The climatic scenarios were (a) a recent 12-yr record of weather data, and (b) a reconstituted set that sequentially introduced in repeated 3-yr intervals wetter–cooler, drier–warmer, and typical conditions. To extrapolate the implications of changes in ecosystem processes and resulting growth and distribution of vegetation and snowpack, the model incorporated geographic data. With underlying digital elevation maps, soil depth and texture, extrapolated climate, and current information on vegetation types and satellite-derived estimates of leaf area indices, simulations were extended to envision how the park might look after 120 yr. The predictions of change included underlying processes affecting the availability of water and nitrogen. Considerable field data were acquired to compare with model predictions under current climatic conditions. In general, the integrated landscape models of ecosystem processes had good agreement with measured NPP, snowpack, and streamflow, but the exercise revealed the difficulty and necessity of averaging point measurements across landscapes to achieve comparable results with modeled values. Under the extremely variable climate scenario significant changes in vegetation composition and growth as well as hydrologic responses were predicted across the park. In particular, a general rise in both the upper and lower limits of treeline was predicted. These shifts would probably occur along with a variety of disturbances (fire, insect, and disease outbreaks) as predictions of physiological stress (water, nutrients, light) altered competitive relations and hydrologic responses. The use of integrated landscape models applied in this exercise should provide managers with insights into the underlying processes important in maintaining community structure, and at the same time, locate where changes on the landscape are most likely to occur.

Montana↗