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At least 919 records · Page 51Linked to original sources

Interaction of lateral baroclinic forcing and turbulence in an estuary

Observations of density and velocity in a channel in northern San Francisco Bay show that the onset of vertical density stratification during flood tides is controlled by the balance between the cross-channel baroclinic pressure gradient and vertical mixing due to turbulence. Profiles of velocity, salinity, temperature, and suspended sediment concentration were measured in transects across Suisun Cutoff, in northern San Francisco Bay, on two days over the 12.5-hour tidal cycle. During flood tides an axial density front developed between fresher water flowing from the shallows of Grizzly Bay into the northern side of Suisun Cutoff and saltier water flowing up the channel. North of the front, transverse currents were driven by the lateral salinity gradient, with a top-to-bottom velocity difference greater than 30 cm/s. South of the front, the secondary circulation was weak, and along-channel velocities were greater than to the north. The gradient Richardson number shows that stratification was stable north of the front, while the water column was turbulently mixed south of the front. Time-series measurements of velocity and salinity demonstrate that the front develops during each tidal cycle. In estuaries, longitudinal dynamics predict less stratification during flood than ebb tides. These data show that stratification can develop during flood tides due to a lateral baroclinic pressure gradient in estuaries with complex bathymetry.

Journal of Geophysical Research C: Oceans↗

Oxygen-18 concentrations in recent precipitation and ice cores on the Tibetan Plateau

A detailed study of the climatic significance of δ 18 O in precipitation was completed on a 1500 km southwest-northeast transect of the Tibetan Plateau in central Asia. Precipitation samples were collected at four meteorological stations for up to 9 years. This study shows that the gradual impact of monsoon precipitation affects the spatial variation of δ 18 O-T relationship along the transect. Strong monsoon activity in the southern Tibetan Plateau results in high precipitation rates and more depleted heavy isotopes. This depletion mechanism is described as a precipitation “amount effect” and results in a poor δ 18 O-T relationship at both seasonal and annual scales. In the middle of the Tibetan Plateau, the effects of the monsoon are diminished but continue to cause a reduced correlation of δ 18 O and temperature at the annual scale. At the monthly scale, however, a significant δ 18 O-T relationship does exist. To the north of the Tibetan Plateau beyond the extent of the effects of monsoon precipitation, δ 18 O in precipitation shows a strong temperature dependence. δ 18 O records from two shallow ice cores and historic air temperature data were compared to verify the modern δ 18 O-T relationship. δ 18 O in Dunde ice core was positively correlated with air temperature from a nearby meteorological station in the north of the plateau. The δ 18 O variation in an ice core from the southern Plateau, however, was inversely correlated with precipitation amount at a nearby meteorological station and also the accumulation record in the ice core. The long-term variation of δ 18 O in the ice core record in the monsoon regions of the southern Tibetan Plateau suggest past monsoon seasons were probably more expansive. It is still unclear, however, how changes in large-scale atmosphere circulation might influence summer monsoon precipitation on the Tibetan Plateau.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 1. Vegetation changes north of 55°N between the last glacial maximum, mid-Holocene, and present

A unified scheme to assign pollen samples to vegetation types was used to reconstruct vegetation patterns north of 55??N at the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene (6000 years B.P.). The pollen data set assembled for this purpose represents a comprehensive compilation based on the work of many projects and research groups. Five tundra types (cushion forb tundra, graminoid and forb tundra, prostrate dwarf-shrub tundra, erect dwarf-shrub tundra, and low- and high-shrub tundra) were distinguished and mapped on the basis of modern pollen surface samples. The tundra-forest boundary and the distributions of boreal and temperate forest types today were realistically reconstructed. During the mid-Holocene the tundra-forest boundary was north of its present position in some regions, but the pattern of this shift was strongly asymmetrical around the pole, with the largest northward shift in central Siberia (???200 km), little change in Beringia, and a southward shift in Keewatin and Labrador (???200 km). Low- and high-shrub tundra extended farther north than today. At the LGM, forests were absent from high latitudes. Graminoid and forb tundra abutted on temperate steppe in northwestern Eurasia while prostrate dwarf-shrub, erect dwarf-shrub, and graminoid and forb tundra formed a mosaic in Beringia. Graminoid and forb tundra is restricted today and does not form a large continuous biome, but the pollen data show that it was far more extensive at the LGM, while low- and high-shrub tundra were greatly reduced, illustrating the potential for climate change to dramatically alter the relative areas occupied by different vegetation types.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55°N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO 2 increase (to >700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

Multiple oxygen and sulfur isotopic analyses on water-soluble sulfate in bulk atmospheric deposition from the southwestern United States

Sulfate is a major component of bulk atmospheric deposition (including dust, aerosol, fog, and rain). We analyzed sulfur and oxygen isotopic compositions of water-soluble sulfate from 40 sites where year-round dust traps collect bulk atmospheric deposition in the southwestern United States. Average sulfur and oxygen isotopic compositions (δ 34 S and δ 18 O) are 5.8 ± 1.4 (CDT) and 11.2 ± 1.9 (SMOW) (n = 47), respectively. Samples have an oxygen 17 anomaly (Δ 17 O), with an average value of 1.0 ± 0.6‰. Except for a weak positive correlation between δ 18 O and Δ 17 O values (r 2 ≈ 0.4), no correlation exists for δ 18 O versus δ 34 S, Δ 17 O versus δ 34 S, or any of the three isotopic compositions versus elevation of the sample site. Exceptional positive Δ 17 O values (up to 4.23‰) are found in samples from sites in the vicinity of large cities or major highways, and near-zero Δ 17 O values are found in samples close to dry lakes. Comparison of isotopic values of dust trap sulfate and desert varnish sulfate from the region reveals that varnish sulfate has average isotopic values that are ∼4.8‰ lower for δ 18 O, ∼2.1‰ higher for δ 34 S, and ∼0.3‰ lower for Δ 17 O than those of the present-day bulk deposition sulfate. Although other factors could cause the disparity, this observation suggests a possibility that varnish sulfate may have recorded a long-term atmospheric sulfate deposition during the Holocene or Pleistocene, as well as the differences between sulfur and oxygen isotopic compositions of the preindustrial bulk deposition sulfate and those of the industrial era.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗

Elevations of water-worn features on Mars: Implications for circulation of groundwater

Central to the model of the evolution of the martian hydrosphere by Clifford and Parker [2001] is a permanent freezing of the planet at the end of the Noachian and recharge of the global groundwater system by basal melting of ice-rich polar deposits. Acquisition of MOLA data by Mars Global Surveyor provides a means of testing the model, since discharge of water onto the surface, after development of the cryosphere, is driven by the hydrostatic head created by the difference in elevation between the base of the polar-layered terrain and the discharge site. The new data show that, while most post-Noachian water-worn features are at a lower elevation than the base of the polar-layered terrains, as required by the model, there are exceptions. Prominent among these are possible lacustrine deposits within the canyons, tributaries to the canyons, and valleys on several volcanoes. These high-standing features can be reconciled with the model if volcanic melting of ice within the cryosphere is invoked as a source for water at high elevations. An alternative is that high pressures may have developed below the cryosphere as a result of water being trapped beneath the growing cryosphere and the impermeable basement. Yet another alternative is that, since the end of the Noachian, the groundwater system has been recharged by precipitation during occasional warm periods.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

Imaging spectroscopy: Earth and planetary remote sensing with the USGS Tetracorder and expert systems

Imaging spectroscopy is a tool that can be used to spectrally identify and spatially map materials based on their specific chemical bonds. Spectroscopic analysis requires significantly more sophistication than has been employed in conventional broadband remote sensing analysis. We describe a new system that is effective at material identification and mapping: a set of algorithms within an expert system decision‐making framework that we call Tetracorder. The expertise in the system has been derived from scientific knowledge of spectral identification. The expert system rules are implemented in a decision tree where multiple algorithms are applied to spectral analysis, additional expert rules and algorithms can be applied based on initial results, and more decisions are made until spectral analysis is complete. Because certain spectral features are indicative of specific chemical bonds in materials, the system can accurately identify and map those materials. In this paper we describe the framework of the decision making process used for spectral identification, describe specific spectral feature analysis algorithms, and give examples of what analyses and types of maps are possible with imaging spectroscopy data. We also present the expert system rules that describe which diagnostic spectral features are used in the decision making process for a set of spectra of minerals and other common materials. We demonstrate the applications of Tetracorder to identify and map surface minerals, to detect sources of acid rock drainage, and to map vegetation species, ice, melting snow, water, and water pollution, all with one set of expert system rules. Mineral mapping can aid in geologic mapping and fault detection and can provide a better understanding of weathering, mineralization, hydrothermal alteration, and other geologic processes. Environmental site assessment, such as mapping source areas of acid mine drainage, has resulted in the acceleration of site cleanup, saving millions of dollars and years in cleanup time. Imaging spectroscopy data and Tetracorder analysis can be used to study both terrestrial and planetary science problems. Imaging spectroscopy can be used to probe planetary systems, including their atmospheres, oceans, and land surfaces.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

Resurfacing history of the northern plains of Mars based on geologic mapping of Mars Global Surveyor data

Geologic mapping of the northern plains of Mars, based on Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter topography and Viking and Mars Orbiter Camera images, reveals new insights into geologic processes and events in this region during the Hesperian and Amazonian Periods. We propose four successive stages of lowland resurfacing likely related to the activity of near-surface volatiles commencing at the highland-lowland boundary (HLB) and progressing to lower topographic levels as follows (highest elevations indicated): Stage 1, upper boundary plains, Early Hesperian, <-2.0 to -2.9 km; Stage 2, lower boundary plains and outflow channel dissection, Late Hesperian, <-2.7 to -4.0 km; Stage 3, Vastitas Borealis Formation (VBF) surface, Late Hesperian to Early Amazonian, <-3.1 to -4.1 km; and Stage 4, local chaos zones, Early Amazonian, <-3.8 to -5.0 km. At Acidalia Mensa, Stage 2 and 3 levels may be lower (<-4.4 and -4.8 km, respectively). Contractional ridges form the dominant structure in the plains and developed from near the end of the Early Hesperian to the Early Amazonian. Geomorphic evidence for a northern-plains-filling ocean during Stage 2 is absent because one did not form or its evidence was destroyed by Stage 3 resurfacing. Remnants of possible Amazonian dust mantles occur on top of the VBF. The north polar layered deposits appear to be made up of an up to kilometer-thick lower sequence of sandy layers Early to Middle Amazonian in age overlain by Late Amazonian ice-rich dust layers; both units appear to have outliers, suggesting that they once were more extensive.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

Orogenic tectonism on Io

We catalog 143 Ionian mountains (montes) and mountain‐like features (mensae, tholi, plana, and small peaks) in order to investigate orogenic tectonism on Io. From this comprehensive list, we select 96 mountains for which there are sufficient coverage and resolution to discern spatial relationships with surrounding geologic features. Three of the 96 mountains are probably volcanoes, 92 appear to be tectonic massifs, and 1 is ambiguous. Of the 92 tectonic mountains, 38 abut paterae (volcanic or volcano‐tectonic craters with irregular or scalloped margins). This juxtaposition is unlikely to be a coincidence as the probability of it occurring by chance is ∼0.1%. We propose instead that orogenic faults may act as conduits for magma ascent, thus fueling patera formation near mountains. As resurfacing buries a shell of material from Io's surface to the base of the lithosphere, its effective radius is reduced and it heats up. We calculate the lithospheric volume change due to subsidence and thermal expansion as a function of lithospheric thickness. Conservation of volume dictates that this material must be uplifted at Io's surface. By estimating the total volume of the mountains, we are able to place a lower limit of 12 km on Io's lithospheric thickness. We hypothesize that, in some cases, mountain formation may be facilitated by asthenospheric diapirs impinging on the base of the lithosphere. The resulting lithospheric swell could focus the compressive stresses that drive orogenic tectonism. This model is one of several possible mechanisms for uplifting isolated mountains such as are observed on Io.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

Effects of spectrometer band pass, sampling, and signal‐to‐noise ratio on spectral identification using the Tetracorder algorithm

[1] Estimates of spectrometer band pass, sampling interval, and signal‐to‐noise ratio required for identification of pure minerals and plants were derived using reflectance spectra convolved to AVIRIS, HYDICE, MIVIS, VIMS, and other imaging spectrometers. For each spectral simulation, various levels of random noise were added to the reflectance spectra after convolution, and then each was analyzed with the Tetracorder spectral identification algorithm [ Clark et al. , 2003]. The outcome of each identification attempt was tabulated to provide an estimate of the signal‐to‐noise ratio at which a given percentage of the noisy spectra were identified correctly. Results show that spectral identification is most sensitive to the signal‐to‐noise ratio at narrow sampling interval values but is more sensitive to the sampling interval itself at broad sampling interval values because of spectral aliasing, a condition when absorption features of different materials can resemble one another. The band pass is less critical to spectral identification than the sampling interval or signal‐to‐noise ratio because broadening the band pass does not induce spectral aliasing. These conclusions are empirically corroborated by analysis of mineral maps of AVIRIS data collected at Cuprite, Nevada, between 1990 and 1995, a period during which the sensor signal‐to‐noise ratio increased up to sixfold. There are values of spectrometer sampling and band pass beyond which spectral identification of materials will require an abrupt increase in sensor signal‐to‐noise ratio due to the effects of spectral aliasing. Factors that control this threshold are the uniqueness of a material's diagnostic absorptions in terms of shape and wavelength isolation, and the spectral diversity of the materials found in nature and in the spectral library used for comparison. Array spectrometers provide the best data for identification when they critically sample spectra. The sampling interval should not be broadened to increase the signal‐to‐noise ratio in a photon‐noise‐limited system when high levels of accuracy are desired. It is possible, using this simulation method, to select optimum combinations of band‐pass, sampling interval, and signal‐to‐noise ratio values for a particular application that maximize identification accuracy and minimize the volume of imaging data.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Planets↗

Morphometric properties of Martian volcanoes

Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) data have been used to construct Digital Elevation Models (DEM) of the Martian volcanoes in order to determine height, flank slope, caldera depth, and volumes. Summit elevations range from 21.1 km to −0.5 km, and relief varies from 1.0 km to almost 22 km. Average flank slopes are in the range of <1° to ∼10°, consistent with basaltic shield volcanism. The very low slopes of highland patera are also consistent with pyroclastic volcanism. Minimum volumes range from <10 12 to 10 15 m 3 . Estimates of the time required to build these volcanoes, on the basis of long-term terrestrial eruption rates, range from hundreds of thousands to tens of millions of years.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

Posteruption suspended sediment transport at Mount St. Helens: Decadal‐scale relationships with landscape adjustments and river discharges

Widespread landscape disturbance by the cataclysmic 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens abruptly increased sediment supply in surrounding watersheds. The magnitude and duration of the redistribution of sediment deposited by the eruption as well as decades‐ to centuries‐old sediment remobilized from storage have varied chiefly with the style of disturbance. Posteruption suspended sediment transport has been greater and more persistent from zones of channel disturbance than from zones of hillslope disturbance. Despite the severe landscape disturbances caused by the eruption, relationships between discharge magnitudes and frequencies and suspended sediment transport have been remarkably consistent. Discharges smaller than mean annual flows generally have transported <5%, but locally ∼15%, of the annual suspended sediment loads, and infrequent ( p < 0.01), large floods have transported as much as 50% of the annual suspended sediment loads in a single day. However, moderate‐magnitude discharges (those greater than mean annual flows but less than 2‐year floods) have transported the greatest amounts of sediment from all disturbance zones. Such discharges have transported, on average, 60% to ∼95% of the annual suspended sediment loads, usually within cumulative periods of 1–3 weeks each year. Although small‐magnitude and large‐magnitude discharges have locally and episodically transported considerable amounts of suspended sediment, there has not been any notable change in the overall nature of the effective discharges; moderate‐magnitude flows have been the predominant discharges responsible for transporting the majority of suspended sediment during 20 years of posteruption landscape adjustment.

Washington↗

Stress field variations in the Swiss Alps and the northern Alpine foreland derived from inversion of fault plane solutions

This study is devoted to a systematic analysis of the state of stress of the central European Alps and northern Alpine foreland in Switzerland based on focal mechanisms of 138 earthquakes with magnitudes between 1 and 5. The most robust feature of the results is that the azimuth of the minimum compressive stress, S 3 , is generally well constrained for all data subsets and always lies in the NE quadrant. However, within this quadrant, the orientation of S 3 changes systematically both along the structural strike of the Alpine chain and across it. The variation in stress along the mountain belt from NE to SW involves a progressive, counterclockwise rotation of S 3 and is most clear in the foreland, where it amounts to 45°–50°. This pattern of rotation is compatible with the disturbance to the stress field expected from the indentation of the Adriatic Block into the central European Plate, possibly together with buoyancy forces arising from the strongly arcuate structure of the Moho to the immediate west of our study area. Across the Alps, the variation in azimuth of S 3 is defined by a progressive, counterclockwise rotation of about 45° from the foreland in the north across the Helvetic domain to the Penninic nappes in the south and is accompanied by a change from a slight predominance of strike-slip mechanisms in the foreland to a strong predominance of normal faulting in the high parts of the Alps. The observed rotation can be explained by the perturbation of the large-scale regional stress by a local uniaxial deviatoric tension with a magnitude similar to that of the regional differential stress and with an orientation perpendicular to the strike of the Alpine belt. The tensile nature and orientation of this stress is consistent with the “spreading” stress expected from lateral density changes due to a crustal root beneath the Alps.

European Alps↗

Transient volcano deformation sources imaged with interferometric synthetic aperture radar: Application to Seguam Island, Alaska

Thirty interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) images, spanning various intervals during 1992&ndash;2000, document coeruptive and posteruptive deformation of the 1992&ndash;1993 eruption on Seguam Island, Alaska. A procedure that combines standard damped least squares inverse methods and collective surfaces, identifies three dominant amorphous clusters of deformation point sources. Predictions generated from these three point source clusters account for both the spatial and temporal complexity of the deformation patterns of the InSAR data. Regularized time series of source strength attribute a distinctive transient behavior to each of the three source clusters. A model that combines magma influx, thermoelastic relaxation, poroelastic effects, and petrologic data accounts for the transient, interrelated behavior of the source clusters and the observed deformation. Basaltic magma pulses, which flow into a storage chamber residing in the lower crust, drive this deformational system. A portion of a magma pulse is injected into the upper crust and remains in storage during both coeruption and posteruption intervals. This injected magma degasses and the volatile products accumulate in a shallow poroelastic storage chamber. During the eruption, another portion of the magma pulse is transported directly to the surface via a conduit roughly centered beneath Pyre Peak on the west side of the island. A small amount of this magma remains in storage during the eruption, and posteruption thermoelastic contraction ensues. This model, made possible by the excellent spatial and temporal coverage of the InSAR data, reveals a relatively simple system of interrelated predictable processes driven by magma dynamics.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Crystallographic controls on the frictional behavior of dry and water-saturated sheet structure minerals

We compare the frictional strengths of 17 sheet structure mineral powders, measured under dry and water-saturated conditions, to identify the factors that cause many of them to be relatively weak. The dry coefficient of friction μ ranges upward from 0.2 for graphite, leveling off at 0.8 for margarite, clintonite, gibbsite, kaolinite, and lizardite. The values of μ (dry) correlate directly with calculated (001) interlayer bond strengths of the minerals. This correlation occurs because shear becomes localized along boundary and Riedel shears and the platy minerals in them rotate into alignment with the shear planes. For those gouges with μ (dry) < 0.8, shear occurs by breaking the interlayer bonds to form new cleavage surfaces. Where μ (dry) = 0.8, consistent with Byerlee's law, the interlayer bonds are sufficiently strong that other frictional processes dominate. The transition in dry friction mechanisms corresponds to calculated surface energies of 2–3 J/m 2 . Adding water causes μ to decrease for every mineral tested except graphite. If the minerals are separated into groups with similar crystal structures, μ (wet) increases with increasing interlayer bond strength within each group. This relationship also holds for the swelling clay montmorillonite, whose water-saturated strength is consistent with the strengths of nonswelling clays of similar crystal structure. Water in the saturated gouges forms thin, structured films between the plate surfaces. The polar water molecules are bonded to the plate surfaces in proportion to the mineral's surface energy, and μ (wet) reflects the stresses required to shear through the water films.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Stress triggering in thrust and subduction earthquakes and stress interaction between the southern San Andreas and nearby thrust and strike-slip faults

We argue that key features of thrust earthquake triggering, inhibition, and clustering can be explained by Coulomb stress changes, which we illustrate by a suite of representative models and by detailed examples. Whereas slip on surface-cutting thrust faults drops the stress in most of the adjacent crust, slip on blind thrust faults increases the stress on some nearby zones, particularly above the source fault. Blind thrusts can thus trigger slip on secondary faults at shallow depth and typically produce broadly distributed aftershocks. Short thrust ruptures are particularly efficient at triggering earthquakes of similar size on adjacent thrust faults. We calculate that during a progressive thrust sequence in central California the 1983 M w = 6.7 Coalinga earthquake brought the subsequent 1983 M w = 6.0 Nuñez and 1985 M w = 6.0 Kettleman Hills ruptures 10 bars and 1 bar closer to Coulomb failure. The idealized stress change calculations also reconcile the distribution of seismicity accompanying large subduction events, in agreement with findings of prior investigations. Subduction zone ruptures are calculated to promote normal faulting events in the outer rise and to promote thrust-faulting events on the periphery of the seismic rupture and its downdip extension. These features are evident in aftershocks of the 1957 M w = 9.1 Aleutian and other large subduction earthquakes. We further examine stress changes on the rupture surface imparted by the 1960 M w = 9.5 and 1995 M w = 8.1 Chile earthquakes, for which detailed slip models are available. Calculated Coulomb stress increases of 2–20 bars correspond closely to sites of aftershocks and postseismic slip, whereas aftershocks are absent where the stress drops by more than 10 bars. We also argue that slip on major strike-slip systems modulates the stress acting on nearby thrust and strike-slip faults. We calculate that the 1857 M w = 7.9 Fort Tejon earthquake on the San Andreas fault and subsequent interseismic slip brought the Coalinga fault ∼1 bar closer to failure but inhibited failure elsewhere on the Coast Ranges thrust faults. The 1857 earthquake also promoted failure on the White Wolf reverse fault by 8 bars, which ruptured in the 1952 M w = 7.3 Kern County shock but inhibited slip on the left-lateral Garlock fault, which has not ruptured since 1857. We thus contend that stress transfer exerts a control on the seismicity of thrust faults across a broad spectrum of spatial and temporal scales.

California↗

Strain accumulation across the Coast Ranges at the latitude of San Francisco, 1994-2000

A 66-monument geodetic array spanning the Coast Ranges near San Francisco has been surveyed more than eight times by GIPS between late 1993 and early 2001. The measured horizontal velocities of the monuments are well represented by uniform, right-lateral, simple shear parallel to N29°W. (The local strike of the San Andreas Fault is ∼N34°W.) The observed areal dilatation rate of 6.9 ± 10.0 nstrain yr −1 (quoted uncertainty is one standard deviation and extension is reckoned positive) is not significantly different from zero, which implies that the observed strain accumulation could be released by strike-slip faulting alone. Our results are consistent with the slip rates assigned by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities [2003] to the principal faults (San Gregorio, San Andreas, Hayward-Rodgers Creek, Calaveras-Concord-Green Valley, and Greenville Faults) cutting across the GPS array. The vector sum of those slip rates is is 39.8 ± 2.6 mm yr −1 N29.8°W ± 2.8°, whereas the motion across the GPS array (breadth 120 km) inferred from the uniform strain rate approximation is 38.7 ± 1.2 mm yr −1 N29.0°W ± 0.9° right-lateral shear and 0.4 ± 0.9 mm yr −1 N61°E ± 0.9° extension. We interpret the near coincidence of these rates and the absence of significant accumulation of areal dilatation to imply that right-lateral slip on the principal faults can release the accumulating strain; major strain release on reverse faults subparallel to the San Andreas Fault within the Coast Ranges is not required.

California↗

Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7 earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey

New earthquake probability calculations are made for the Sea of Marmara region and the city of Istanbul, providing a revised forecast and an evaluation of time-dependent interaction techniques. Calculations incorporate newly obtained bathymetric images of the North Anatolian fault beneath the Sea of Marmara [Le Pichon et al., 2001; Armijo et al., 2002]. Newly interpreted fault segmentation enables an improved regional A.D. 1500-2000 earthquake catalog and interevent model, which form the basis for time-dependent probability estimates. Calculations presented here also employ detailed models of coseismic and postseismic slip associated with the 17 August 1999 M = 7.4 Izmit earthquake to investigate effects of stress transfer on seismic hazard. Probability changes caused by the 1999 shock depend on Marmara Sea fault-stressing rates, which are calculated with a new finite element model. The combined 2004-2034 regional Poisson probability of M≥7 earthquakes is ~38%, the regional time-dependent probability is 44 ± 18%, and incorporation of stress transfer raises it to 53 ± 18%. The most important effect of adding time dependence and stress transfer to the calculations is an increase in the 30 year probability of a M ??? 7 earthquake affecting Istanbul. The 30 year Poisson probability at Istanbul is 21%, and the addition of time dependence and stress transfer raises it to 41 ± 14%. The ranges given on probability values are sensitivities of the calculations to input parameters determined by Monte Carlo analysis; 1000 calculations are made using parameters drawn at random from distributions. Sensitivities are large relative to mean probability values and enhancements caused by stress transfer, reflecting a poor understanding of large-earthquake aperiodicity.

Sea Of Marmara↗