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Seed menus: An integrated decision-support framework for native plant restoration in the Mojave Desert

The combination of ecosystem stressors, rapid climate change, and increasing landscape-scale development has necessitated active restoration across large tracts of disturbed habitats in the arid southwestern United States. In this context, programmatic directives such as the National Seed Strategy for Rehabilitation and Restoration have increasingly emphasized improved restoration practices that promote resilient, diverse plant communities and enhance native seed reserves. While decision-support tools have been implemented to support genetic diversity by guiding seed transfer decisions based on patterns in local adaptation, less emphasis has been placed on identifying priority seed mixes composed of native species assemblages. Well-designed seed mixes can provide foundational ecosystem services including resilience to disturbance, resistance to invasive species, plant canopy structure to facilitate natural seedling recruitment, and habitat to support wildlife and pollinator communities. Drawing from a newly developed dataset of species distribution models for priority native plant taxa in the Mojave Desert, we created a novel decision support tool by pairing spatial predictions of species habitat with a database of key species traits including life history, flowering characteristics, pollinator relationships, and propagation methods. This publicly available web application, Mojave Seed Menus, helps restoration practitioners generate customized seed mixes for native plant restoration in the Mojave Desert while emphasizing key species traits. Our application forms an essential part of an integrated Mojave Desert restoration program designed to help practitioners identify species to include in local seed mixes and nursery stock development while accounting for local adaptation by identifying appropriate seed sources within key restoration species.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗

Guidelines for evaluating performance of oyster habitat restoration

Restoration of degraded ecosystems is an important societal goal, yet inadequate monitoring and the absence of clear performance metrics are common criticisms of many habitat restoration projects. Funding limitations can prevent adequate monitoring, but we suggest that the lack of accepted metrics to address the diversity of restoration objectives also presents a serious challenge to the monitoring of restoration projects. A working group with experience in designing and monitoring oyster reef projects was used to develop standardized monitoring metrics, units, and performance criteria that would allow for comparison among restoration sites and projects of various construction types. A set of four universal metrics (reef areal dimensions, reef height, oyster density, and oyster size–frequency distribution) and a set of three universal environmental variables (water temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen) are recommended to be monitored for all oyster habitat restoration projects regardless of their goal(s). In addition, restoration goal-based metrics specific to four commonly cited ecosystem service-based restoration goals are recommended, along with an optional set of seven supplemental ancillary metrics that could provide information useful to the interpretation of prerestoration and postrestoration monitoring data. Widespread adoption of a common set of metrics with standardized techniques and units to assess well-defined goals not only allows practitioners to gauge the performance of their own projects but also allows for comparison among projects, which is both essential to the advancement of the field of oyster restoration and can provide new knowledge about the structure and ecological function of oyster reef ecosystems.

Restoration Ecology↗

Inventory of the mosses, liverworts, and lichens of Olympic National Park, Washington- Species list

The identification of non-vascular cryptogam species (lichens, mosses, liverworts, and hornworts) is especially challenging because of their small size, their often microscopic or chemical distinguishing features, and their enormous diversity. Consequently, they are a poorly known component of Olympic National Park, despite their ecological and aesthetic importance. This project is the first attempt at a systematic, comprehensive survey of non-vascular cryptogams in the Park and presents the current species list with descriptions of the substrate and vascular vegetation type where they were observed. The authors strove to collect from as many park environments as feasible, and distributed collections along important environmental gradients in different regions of the park using vascular vegetation as an environmental indicator. They also collected opportunistically when interesting habitats or microhabitats were encountered. Finally, the authors updated the nomenclature in the Park’s previous collection of nonvascular plants. This study identified approximately 13,200 bryophyte and lichen species, adding approximately 425 new species to the Olympic National Park Herbarium. These data, combined with select literature reports and personal data from Martin and Karen Hutten, added more than 350 species to the previously documented Olympic Peninsula lichen and bryophyte list. The authors discuss the list in a local, regional, and global context of rarity, as well as cryptogam conservation and further work needed in Olympic National Park. The improved inventory of Olympic National Park cryptogams represented by this project enables Olympic National Park to protect populations of rare and sensitive species, assess the damage caused by illegal harvest, and contribute information to the Bureau of Land Management and U.S. Forest Service Sensitive Species Programs.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

The importance of scaling for detecting community patterns: success and failure in assemblages of introduced species

Community saturation can help to explain why biological invasions fail. However, previous research has documented inconsistent relationships between failed invasions ( i.e ., an invasive species colonizes but goes extinct) and the number of species present in the invaded community. We use data from bird communities of the Hawaiian island of Oahu, which supports a community of 38 successfully established introduced birds and where 37 species were introduced but went extinct (failed invasions). We develop a modified approach to evaluate the effects of community saturation on invasion failure. Our method accounts (1) for the number of species present (NSP) when the species goes extinct rather than during its introduction; and (2) scaling patterns in bird body mass distributions that accounts for the hierarchical organization of ecosystems and the fact that interaction strength amongst species varies with scale. We found that when using NSP at the time of extinction, NSP was higher for failed introductions as compared to successful introductions, supporting the idea that increasing species richness and putative community saturation mediate invasion resistance. Accounting for scale-specific patterns in body size distributions further improved the relationship between NSP and introduction failure. Results show that a better understanding of invasion outcomes can be obtained when scale-specific community structure is accounted for in the analysis.

Hawaii↗

Thatcher Bay, Washington, Nearshore Restoration Assessment

The San Juan Archipelago, located at the confluence of the Puget Sound, the Straits of Juan de Fuca in Washington State, and the Straits of Georgia, British Columbia, Canada, provides essential nearshore habitat for diverse salmonid, forage fish, and bird populations. With 408 miles of coastline, the San Juan Islands provide a significant portion of the available nearshore habitat for the greater Puget Sound and are an essential part of the regional efforts to restore Puget Sound (Puget Sound Shared Strategy 2005). The nearshore areas of the San Juan Islands provide a critical link between the terrestrial and marine environments. For this reason the focus on restoration and conservation of nearshore habitat in the San Juan Islands is of paramount importance. Wood-waste was a common by-product of historical lumber-milling operations. To date, relatively little attention has been given to the impact of historical lumber-milling operations in the San Juan Archipelago. Thatcher Bay, on Blakely Island, located near the east edge of the archipelago, is presented here as a case study on the restoration potential for a wood-waste contaminated nearshore area. Case study components include (1) a brief discussion of the history of milling operations. (2) an estimate of the location and amount of the current distribution of wood-waste at the site, (3) a preliminary examination of the impacts of wood-waste on benthic flora and fauna at the site, and (4) the presentation of several restoration alternatives for the site. The history of milling activity in Thatcher Bay began in 1879 with the construction of a mill in the southeastern part of the bay. Milling activity continued for more than 60 years, until the mill closed in 1942. Currently, the primary evidence of the historical milling operations is the presence of approximately 5,000 yd3 of wood-waste contaminated sediments. The distribution and thickness of residual wood-waste at the site was determined by using sediment coring and GIS-based interpolation techniques. Additionally, pilot studies were conducted to characterize in place sediment redox, organic composition, and sulfide impacts to nearshore flora and fauna. We found that the presence of wood-waste in Thatcher Bay may alter the quality of the benthic habitat by contributing to elevated levels of total organic composition (TOC) of the sediment. Increased TOC favors anaerobic respiration in marine sediments, and sulfide, a toxic by-product of this process, was found at levels as high as 17.5 mg L-1 in Thatcher Bay. The Thatcher Bay sulfide levels are several orders of magnitude higher than those known to impact benthic invertebrates. Eelgrass, Zostera marina, located on the western margin of Thatcher Bay, was surveyed by using underwater video surveys. This baseline distribution will in part be used to measure the impact of any future remediation efforts. Additionally, the distribution and survey data can provide an estimate of propagule source for future colonization of restored sediment. Three restoration alternatives were considered, and a ranking matrix was developed to score each alternative against site-specific and regional criteria. The process identified the removal of wood-waste from a water-based platform as the preferred alternative. Our multidisciplinary investigation identified the location, thickness, and potential impacts of wood-waste that has persisted in the nearshore environment of Thatcher Bay since at least 1942. We also provide a process to efficiently evaluate alternatives to remediate the impact of this historical disturbance and to potentially contribute to an increase of nearshore diversity and productivity at this site. Elements of this approach could inform restoration planning at similarly impacted sites throughout the region.

Open-File Report↗

Examining fluvial fish range loss with SDMs

Fluvial fishes face increased imperilment from anthropogenic activities, but the specific factors contributing most to range declines are often poorly understood. For example, the range of the fluvial‐specialist shoal bass ( Micropterus cataractae ) continues to decrease, yet how perceived threats have contributed to range loss is largely unknown. We used species distribution models to determine which factors contributed most to shoal bass range loss. We estimated a potential distribution based on natural abiotic factors and a series of currently occupied distributions that incorporated variables characterizing land cover, non‐native species, and river fragmentation intensity (no fragmentation, dams only, and dams and large impoundments). We allowed interspecific relationships between non‐native congeners and shoal bass to vary across fragmentation intensities. Results from the potential distribution model estimated shoal bass presence throughout much of their native basin, whereas models of currently occupied distribution showed that range loss increased as fragmentation intensified. Response curves from models of currently occupied distribution indicated a potential interaction between fragmentation intensity and the relationship between shoal bass and non‐native congeners, wherein non‐natives may be favored at the highest fragmentation intensity. Response curves also suggested that >100 km of interconnected, free‐flowing stream fragments were necessary to support shoal bass presence. Model evaluation, including an independent validation, suggested that models had favorable predictive and discriminative abilities. Similar approaches that use readily available, diverse, geospatial data sets may deliver insights into the biology and conservation needs of other fluvial species facing similar threats.

Conservation Biology↗

Hydrologic data on channel adjustments, 1970 to 1975, on the Rio Grande downstream from Cochiti Dam, New Mexico before and after closure

Cross-section channel profiles, sediment transport and hydrologic data have been observed (before and after closure of the dam) and computed for a series of investigations from 1970 to 1975 at 37 cross sections established along a 59 mile (95 kilometer) study reach from Cochiti Dam to Isleta Diversion Dam, N. Mex. Cochiti Dam began impounding water in November 1973. Because the dam will trap virtually all of the sediment load originating upstream and water discharge will be controlled, it is expected that equilibrium values of channel width, depth, slope and sediment-transport capability in the existing main stem of the Rio Grande will change. Changes in cross sections with time and space and changes in size distribution of sediments are documented.

New Mexico↗

Grassland and shrubland birds of Gettysburg National Military Park and Eisenhower National Historic Site: Current status and management recommendations

Gettysburg National Military Park (NMP) and Eisenhower National Historic Site (NHS) were surveyed for grassland birds during the 2005 breeding season. These parks currently maintain a total of approximately 1,220 ha (3,015 ac) of grassland habitats within a mosaic of cultivated fields and woodlands. The grasslands are hayfields managed through agricultural leases and fields maintained by the National Park Service (NPS). Most grasslands are composed of introduced cool-season grasses, but Gettysburg NMP maintains a few fields dominated by switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) and is creating additional warm-season grasslands. Hayfields managed through agricultural leases support few grassland birds. The most numerous grassland bird communities are found between Seminary and Cemetery ridges in fields managed by the NPS. The parks discourage hay harvesting before July in all fields in an effort to improve the reproductive success of grassland birds. Shrub-dominated habitats were scarce in both parks. A few areas that were harvested recently for timber supported early successional communities in Gettysburg NMP. Other shrublands were limited to narrow corridors (<10 m [32 ft]) bordering fields and drainages. No shrublands were present on Eisenhower NHS, but an abandoned pasture along Willoughby Run was reverting into a mesic shrubland. Four species of obligate grassland birds were recorded during the 2005 surveys. A population of approximately 130 bobolinks (Dolichonyx oryzivorus) was primarily restricted to grasslands between Seminary and Cemetery ridges maintained by the NPS and a hayfield on Eisenhower NHS. This population is large for southeastern Pennsylvania and the surrounding region. Eastern meadowlarks (Sturnella magna) were most numerous in the same fields occupied by bobolinks but smaller numbers were scattered in other grasslands. Grasshopper sparrows (Ammodramus savannarum) were locally distributed in Conservation Reserve Program fields and other grasslands with more open vegetation. Savannah sparrows (Passervulus sandwichensis) were limited to one disturbed area undergoing conversion to warm-season grasses. When compared with other cultural parks in this region, the Gettysburg-Eisenhower complex supports a relatively abundant grassland bird community. This community is restricted to a portion of existing grassland habitats, but the potential exists to support a more diverse and abundant grassland avifauna. The following recommendations provide the most immediate benefits for breeding grassland birds in these parks under the current habitat conditions and management strategies. These recommendations are based on the assumption that the current policy of delayed mowing continues in both parks: improve grassland composition on leased hayfields; increase extent of early successional stages of grasslands; reduce fragmentation of grassland habitats; and improve grassland diversity by creating additional communities of native warm-season grasses. Because shrublands are currently scarce in both parks, the only recommendation is directed towards creating and maintaining shrub-dominated successional habitats: Explore opportunities for creating shrubby successional habitats in both parks.

Technical Report↗

Vascular Plant and Vertebrate Inventory of Casa Grande Ruins National Monument

Executive Summary This report summarizes results of the first comprehensive biological inventory of Casa Grande Ruins National Monument (NM) in southern Arizona. Surveys at the monument were part of a larger effort to inventory vascular plants and vertebrates in eight National Park Service units in Arizona and New Mexico. In 2001 and 2002 we surveyed for vascular plants and vertebrates (amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals) at Casa Grande Ruins NM to document the presence, and in some cases relative abundance, of species. By using repeatable study designs and standardized field techniques, which included quantified survey effort, we produced inventories that can serve as the basis for a biological monitoring program. Of the National Park Service units in the region, no other has experienced as much recent ecological change as Casa Grande Ruins NM. Once situated in a large and biologically diverse mesquite bosque near the perennially flowing Gila River, the monument is now a patch of sparse desert vegetation surrounded by urban and commercial development that is rapidly replacing agriculture as the dominant land use in the area. Roads, highways, and canals surround the monument. Development, and its associated impacts, has important implications for the plants and animals that live in the monument. The plant species list is small and the distribution and number of non-native plants appears to be increasing. Terrestrial vertebrates are also being impacted by the changing landscape, which is increasing the isolation of these populations from nearby natural areas and thereby reducing the number of species at the monument. These observations are alarming and are based on our review of previous studies, our research in the monument, and our knowledge of the biogeography and ecology of the Sonoran Desert. Together, these data suggest that the monument has lost a significant portion of its historic complement of species and these changes will likely intensify as urbanization continues. Despite isolation of the monument from nearby natural areas, we recorded noteworthy species or observations for all taxonomic groups: * Plants: night-blooming cereus * Amphibians: high abundance of Couch's spadefoot toads * Reptiles: high abundance of long-nosed snakes * Birds: 10 species of diurnal raptors including 4 species of falcons * Mammals: American badger This study is a first step in the process of compiling information about the biological resources of Casa Grande Ruins NM and surrounding areas. We recommend additional inventory and research studies, and we identify aspects of our effort that could be improved upon through application of new techniques or by extending the temporal (and possibly spatial) scope of our work.

Open-File Report↗

Carbonatite and alkaline intrusion-related rare earth element deposits&ndash;A deposit model

The rare earth elements are not as rare in nature as their name implies, but economic deposits with these elements are not common and few deposits have been large producers. In the past 25 years, demand for rare earth elements has increased dramatically because of their wide and diverse use in high-technology applications. Yet, presently the global production and supply of rare earth elements come from only a few sources. China produces more than 95 percent of the world's supply of rare earth elements. Because of China's decision to restrict exports of these elements, the price of rare earth elements has increased and industrial countries are concerned about supply shortages. As a result, understanding the distribution and origin of rare earth elements deposits, and identifying and quantifying our nation's rare earth elements resources have become priorities. Carbonatite and alkaline intrusive complexes, as well as their weathering products, are the primary sources of rare earth elements. The general mineral deposit model summarized here is part of an effort by the U.S. Geological Survey's Mineral Resources Program to update existing models and develop new descriptive mineral deposit models to supplement previously published models for use in mineral-resource and mineral-environmental assessments. Carbonatite and alkaline intrusion-related REE deposits are discussed together because of their spatial association, common enrichment in incompatible elements, and similarities in genesis. A wide variety of commodities have been exploited from carbonatites and alkaline igneous rocks, such as rare earth elements, niobium, phosphate, titanium, vermiculite, barite, fluorite, copper, calcite, and zirconium. Other enrichments include manganese, strontium, tantalum, thorium, vanadium, and uranium.

Open-File Report↗

Survey of bats on Columbia National Wildlife Refuge, Washington, December 2011-April 2012

Bats are diverse and abundant in many ecosystems worldwide. They perform important ecosystem functions, particularly by consuming large quantities of insects (Cleveland and others, 2006; Jones and others, 2009; Kuhn and others, 2011). The importance of bats to biodiversity and to ecosystem integrity has been overlooked in many regions, largely because the challenges of detecting and studying these small, nocturnal mammals have rendered a paucity of information on matters as basic as species distribution and natural history attributes. Recently, concern for bats has arisen in response to recognition of large-scale threats, such as white-nosed syndrome (WNS; Turner and others, 2009; Frick and others, 2010) and mortality at wind energy facilities (Arnett and others, 2008), factors that are causing unprecedented population declines of bats (Boyles and others, 2011). WNS is a fungal disease that has killed more than 1 million cave-hibernating bats in eastern North America since being discovered in New York State in 2006 (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2012). WNS has spread rapidly from northeastern U.S., and as of August 2012 has been confirmed as far west as eastern Missouri(U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, 2013). Given the rapid spread of WNS, there is concern that the disease may soon affect western bat populations. Hibernating bats are particularly vulnerable to the effects of WNS (Blehert and others, 2009). Refuges in eastern Washington, including the Mid-Columbia River National Wildlife Refuge Complex (MCRNWRC) and Little Pend Oreille National Wildlife Refuge, support many potential hibernacula. Sixteen species of bats potentially occur on these refuges, including one federally listed species of concern (Townsend’s big-eared bat [Corynorhinus townsendii]; see table 1 for scientific names of bats), and 12 species that are of conservation concern in Washington and Oregon (table 1). However, little is known about bats on these refuges because few surveys have been done, and none have been done during winter. Refuge biologists are lacking even the most basic information, such as species presence, and location and status of hibernacula. In order to assess vulnerability and develop a strategy for management of WNS, refuge managers need to know where bats are hibernating, and which species are using each hibernaculum. The goal of this project was to provide information on the status of wintering bats to refuge biologists and managers in order to support decision-making that might minimize the threat of WNS in western bat populations. We conducted surveys of bat activity in winter and early spring as an initial step toward identifying bat species that may be over-wintering and locating potential hibernacula on these refuges. Our specific objectives were to identify bat species using the refuges, to identify areas of resident bat activity in autumn, winter, and early spring using acoustic bat detectors, and to try new methods for quick surveys of bat activity.

Oregon;Washington↗

Sediment loads in the Red River of the North and selected tributaries near Fargo, North Dakota, 2010--2011

Natural-resource agencies are concerned about possible geomorphic effects of a proposed diversion project to reduce the flood risk in the Fargo-Moorhead metropolitan area. The U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers collected data in the spring of 2010 and 2011, and from June to November 2011, during rainfall-runoff events and base-flow conditions to provide information on sediment transport. The data were used to examine sediment concentrations, loads, and particle-size distributions at nine selected sites in the Red River and its tributaries near the Fargo-Moorhead metropolitan area. Suspended-sediment concentration varied among sites in 2010 and 2011. The least suspended-sediment concentrations were measured at the Red River (site 1) and the Buffalo River (site 9), and the greatest concentrations were measured at the two Sheyenne River sites (sites 3 and 4). Estimated daily suspended-sediment loads were highly variable in 2010 and 2011 in the Red River and its tributaries, with the greatest loads occurring in the spring and the smallest loads occurring in the winter. For the Red River, daily suspended-sediment loads ranged from 26 to 3,500 tons per day at site 1 and from 30 to 9,010 tons per day at site 2. For the Sheyenne River, daily loads ranged from less than 10 to 10,200 tons per day at site 3 and from less than 10 to 4,530 tons per day at site 4. The mean daily load was 191 tons per day in 2010 and 377 tons per day in 2011 for the Maple River, and 610 tons per day in 2011 for the Wild Rice River (annual loads were not computed for 2010). For the three sites that were only sampled in 2011 (sites 7, 8 and 9), the mean daily suspended-sediment loads ranged from 40 tons per day at the Lower Branch Rush River (site 8) to 118 tons per day at the Buffalo River (site 9). For sites that had estimated loads in 2010 and 2011 (sites 1&ndash;5), estimated annual (March&ndash;November) suspended-sediment loads were greater in 2011 compared to 2010. In 2010, annual loads ranged from 68,650 tons per year at the Maple River (site 5) to 249,040 tons per year at the Sheyenne River (site 3). In 2011, when all nine sites were sampled, annual loads ranged from 8,716 tons per year at the Lower Branch Rush River (site 8) to 552,832 tons per year at the Sheyenne River (site 3). With the exception of the Sheyenne River (site 4), the greatest monthly loads occurred in March for 2010, with as little as 27 percent (site 1) and as much as 42 percent (site 3) of the annual load occurring in March. For 2011, the greatest monthly loads occurred in April, ranging from 33 percent (site 1) to 63 percent (site 7) of the 2011 annual load. A relatively small amount of sediment was transported past the nine sites as bedload in 2010 and 2011. For most of the samples collected at the nine sites, the bedload composed less than 1 percent of the calculated daily total sediment load.

North Dakota↗

The crustal magma storage system of Volcán Quizapu, Chile, and the effects of magma mixing on magma diversity

Crystal zoning as well as temperature and pressure estimates from phenocryst phase equilibria are used to constrain the architecture of the intermediate-sized magmatic system (some tens of km 3 ) of Volcán Quizapu, Chile, and to document the textural and compositional effects of magma mixing. In contrast to most arc magma systems, where multiple episodes of open-system behavior obscure the evidence of major magma chamber events (e.g. melt extraction, magma mixing), the Quizapu magma system shows limited petrographic complexity in two large historical eruptions (1846–1847 and 1932) that have contrasting eruptive styles. Quizapu magmas and peripheral mafic magmas exhibit a simple binary mixing relationship. At the mafic end, basaltic andesite to andesite recharge magmas complement the record from peripheral cones and show the same limited range of compositions. The silicic end-member composition is almost identical in both eruptions of Quizapu. The effusive 1846–1847 eruption records significant mixing between the mafic and silicic end-members, resulting in hybridized andesites and mingled dacites. These two compositionally simple eruptions at Volcán Quizapu present a rare opportunity to isolate particular aspects of magma evolution—formation of homogeneous dacite magma and late-stage magma mixing—from other magma chamber processes. Crystal zoning, trace element compositions, and crystal-size distributions provide evidence for spatial separation of the mafic and silicic magmas. Dacite-derived plagioclase phenocrysts (i.e. An 25 – 40 ) show a narrow range in composition and limited zonation, suggesting growth from a compositionally restricted melt. Dacite-derived amphibole phenocrysts show similar restricted compositions and furthermore constrain, together with more mafic amphibole phenocrysts, the architecture of the magmatic system at Volcán Quizapu to be compositionally and thermally zoned, in which an andesitic mush is overlain by a homogeneous dacitic magma that is the source for most of the 1846–1847 and 1932 erupted magmas. Dacite formation is best explained by mineral–melt separation (crystal fractionation) from an andesitic mush, which is inferred to have thermally and compositionally buffered the dacite magma thereby keeping it at relatively low crystallinity (<30 vol. %). The dominant cause of compositional diversity is melt separation. Back-mixing of mush (i.e. crystals with signatures of growth both in the andesitic mush and in the dacite magma) into the overlying dacite magma is rarely observed. Recharge events that increase crystal and magma diversity in the dacite magma are limited to an episode of mafic recharge and mixing just prior to the 1846–1847 eruption, where evidence for magma mixing is present on all scales. Chamber-wide mixing was incomplete (mixing efficiency of ∼0·53–0·85) as flow lobes vary significantly in composition along the proposed mixing array. Estimates of viscosity variations during the course of magma mixing suggest that mixing dynamics and the degree of magma interaction on all scales were established at the beginning of the recharge event.

Volcán Quizapu↗

Smallmouth buffalo (Ictiobus bubalus) growth across a 1200km human use and ecological disturbance gradient in the Upper Mississippi River System

Smallmouth buffalo (Ictiobus bubalus) is a common and widely distributed large-bodied species of the family Catostomidae. It inhabits large rivers and reservoirs of the eastern continental United States (east of the continental Divide) and is most abundant and common in the large rivers of the Midwest and Central Plains, though it does occur as far north and east as the Hudson Bay drainage and as far south and west as Arizona (Edwards and Twoney 1982). Historically, smallmouth buffalo were an important component of commercial fisheries on both the Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. However, following the introduction of common carp (Cyprinus carpio) in the mid-1800s (Carlander 1954), the construction of a system of navigation dams on Upper Mississippi and Illinois River in the 1930s (USGS 1999), and water quality/pollution issues through the 1980s (Weiner 2010), the role of smallmouth buffalo in the overall UMRS fish community and commercial fishery has generally diminished relative to historical standards. Still, smallmouth buffalo remains an important and valued component of the UMRS commercial fishery. The study area is represented by three study reaches on the Illinois River and three study reaches on the Upper Mississippi River (Figure 1). Collectively, these study reaches represent nearly 1200 river km and exist across strong and pronounced ecological and disturbance gradients. For example, habitat composition, water quality, commercial navigation intensity, aquatic plant prominence, and the number and abundance of nonnative fish species vary strongly across the study domain, with northern Mississippi River reaches exhibiting less navigation traffic, better water quality, markedly greater aquatic plant prominence, more diverse habitat composition, and comparably much smaller numbers of nonnative species than the lower Mississippi River study reach and those on the Illinois River (USGS 1999; Johnson and Hagerty [eds] 2008; Irons et al. 2009). Long term monitoring efforts conducted under the auspices of the Upper Mississippi River Restoration program over the past 27 years have provided tremendous insights into shifts and changes of the overall UMRS fish community (Ickes et al. 2005; Garvey et al. 2010; Schramm and Ickes 2016). However, these monitoring efforts observe only the most basic aspects of the UMRS fish community (i.e., catch, length, weight, distribution, and occurrence). To gain a greater understanding of forces driving community level shifts and changes, more directed study is needed on the functional attributes of fish populations (i.e., growth, mortality, recruitment). Collectively, these functional attributes of populations are termed population dynamics and/or vital rates. It is important to note, the population dynamics of fishes in large rivers is generally poorly understood, especially for non-game species (Ickes 2018). The prevailing view is that abiotic factors largely govern inter-annual population dynamics, typically based upon rather short-term observations and correlations with assorted abiotic river attributes that vary on a seasonal or annual basis (for example, Risotto and Turner 1985). However, the role that longer-term abiotic factors play in regulating population abundance, or that biotic factors internal to the population (e.g., spawner-recruit dynamics, growth dynamics) or external to the population (e.g., predator-prey dynamics, sympatric competitors, disease) remain poorly understood. Achieving a greater understanding of these dynamics is important for stock, game, and invasive species management. In 2017, as part of a larger study designed to gain vital population rate information for smallmouth buffalo in the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers (“Smallmouth Buffalo population demographics of the Upper Mississippi River System”; UMRR LTRM 2018SOW project items 2018MMBF1-2018MMBF6) annual growth patterns in smallmouth buffalo were determined and evaluated. This was accomplished by measuring growth histories recorded in annual growth increments on hard bony parts (here otoliths), a method known generically as biochronology, and somewhat analogous to dendrochronology practiced by foresters. These methods allow one to generate time-series of annual growth histories that depend upon age, year class (i.e., cohort), and annual environmental conditions experienced by the population over time (Weisberg, 1993). Biochronology methods were used to develop a 36-year time series of smallmouth buffalo growth in the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers across a 1200 km ecological and human use disturbance gradient. Annual growth intervals were identified and measured from otoliths to determine fish age and growth history. A mixed model that parses the growth increment into age and year effects was fit to these data. Given the pronounced ecological and disturbance gradients inherent to the UMRS and the study domain, an a priori expectation of differing patterns in growth is accepted as a null hypothesis to test. The goal of this study was to model smallmouth buffalo growth as a function of the age of the fish and the growth year in which the growth was gained. The primary modeling objective was to parse growth observed on each annulus into a portion attributable to the age of the fish and the portion attributable to the year in which the growth was gained. In effect, this modeling approach removes the somewhat trivial age effects on growth so that a non-confounded growth year effect can be gained. Results attributable to growth year provide a time series of growth information that is of the same duration as the oldest fish observed and solely reflects environmental influences on growth. These model responses can then be investigated relative to environmental covariate time-series suspected of influencing growth of smallmouth buffalo in the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers (e.g., temperature, discharge, population density, population mortality, forage availability, sympatric competition, habitat composition, navigation intensity, nonnative fish prominence, etc.). Thus, the primary scientific objective was to investigate if and how smallmouth buffalo growth varies in accordance with innate ecological and disturbance gradients across the study domain.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗

Predictive understanding of stream salinization in a developed watershed using machine learning

Stream salinization is a global issue, yet few models can provide reliable salinity estimates for unmonitored locations at the time scales required for ecological exposure assessments. Machine learning approaches are presented that use spatially limited high-frequency monitoring and spatially distributed discrete samples to estimate the daily stream-specific conductance across a watershed. We compare the predictive performance of space- and time-unaware Random Forest models and space- and time-aware Recurrent Graph Convolution Neural Network models (KGE: 0.67 and 0.64, respectively) and use explainable artificial intelligence methods to interpret model predictions and understand salinization drivers. These models are applied to the Delaware River Basin, a developed watershed with diverse land uses that experiences anthropogenic salinization from winter deicer applications. These models capture seasonality for the winter first flush of deicers, and the streams with elevated predictions correspond well with indicators of deicer application. This result suggests that these models can be used to identify potential salinity-impaired streams for winter best management practices. Daily salinity predictions are driven primarily by land cover (urbanization) trends that may represent anthropogenic salinization processes and weather at time scales up to three months. Such modeling approaches are likely transferable to other watersheds and can be applied to further understand salinization risks and drivers.

Environmental Science and Technology↗

Causal networks clarify productivity-richness interrelations, bivariate plots do not

Perhaps no other pair of variables in ecology has generated as much discussion as species richness and ecosystem productivity, as illustrated by the reactions by Pierce (2013) and others to Adler et al.'s (2011) report that empirical patterns are weak and inconsistent. Adler et al. (2011) argued we need to move beyond a focus on simplistic bivariate relationships and test mechanistic, multivariate causal hypotheses. We feel the continuing debate over productivity&ndash;richness relationships (PRRs) provides a focused context for illustrating the fundamental difficulties of using bivariate relationships to gain scientific understanding. Pierce (2013) disputes Adler et al.'s (2011) conclusion that bivariate productivity&ndash;richness relationships (PRRs) are &lsquo;weak and variable&rsquo;. He argues, instead, that relationships in the Adler et al. data are actually strong and, further, that failure to adhere to the humped-back model (HBM; sensu Grime 1979) threatens scientists' ability to advise conservationists. Here, we show that Pierce's reanalyses are invalid, that statistically significant boundary relations in the Adler et al. data are difficult to detect when proper methods are used and that his advice neither advances scientific understanding nor provides the quantitative forecasts actually needed by decision makers. We begin by examining Grimes' HBM through the lens of causal networks. We first translate the ideas contained in the HBM into a causal diagram, which shows explicitly how multiple processes are hypothesized to control biomass production and richness and their interrelationship. We then evaluate the causal diagram using structural equation modelling and example data from a published study of meadows in Finland. Formal analysis rejects the literal translation of the HBM and reveals additional processes at work. This exercise shows how the practice of abstracting systems as causal networks (i) clarifies possible hypotheses, (ii) permits explicit testing and (iii) provides more powerful and useful predictions. Building on the Finnish meadow example, we contrast the utility of bivariate plots compared with structural equation models for investigating underlying processes. Simulations illustrate the fallibility of bivariate analysis as a means of supporting one theory over another, while models based on causal networks can quantify the sensitivity of diversity patterns to both management and natural constraints. A key piece of Pierce's critique of Adler et al.'s conclusions relies on upper boundary regression which he claims to reveal strong relationships between production and richness in Adler et al.'s original data. We demonstrate that this technique shows strong associations in purely random data and is invalid for Adler et al.'s data because it depends on a uniform data distribution. We instead perform quantile regression on both the site-level summaries of the data and the plot-level data (using mixed-model quantile regression). Using a variety of nonlinear curve-fitting approaches, we were unable to detect a significant humped-shape boundary in the Adler et al. data. We reiterate that the bivariate productivity&ndash;richness relationships in Adler et al.'s data are weak and variable. We urge ecologists to consider productivity&ndash;richness relationships through the lens of causal networks to advance our understanding beyond bivariate analysis. Further, we emphasize that models based on a causal network conceptualization can also provide more meaningful guidance for conservation management than can a bivariate perspective. Measuring only two variables does not permit the evaluation of complex ideas nor resolve debates about underlying mechanisms.

Functional Ecology↗

Sedimentation and bathymetry changes in Suisun Bay: 1867-1990

Understanding patterns of historical erosion and deposition in San Francisco Bay is crucial in managing such issues as locating deposits of sediment-associated contaminants, and the restoration of wetland areas. These problems were addressed by quantitatively examining historical hydrographic surveys. The data from five hydrographic surveys, made from 1867 to 1990, were analyzed using surface modeling software to determine long-term changes in the sediment system of Suisun Bay and surrounding areas. A surface grid displaying the bathymetry was created for each survey period, and the bathymetric change between survey periods was computed by differencing these grids. Patterns and volumes of erosion and deposition, sedimentation rates, and shoreline changes were derived from the resulting change grids. Approximately 115 million cubic meters of sediment were deposited in the Suisun Bay area from 1867 to 1887, the majority of which was debris from hydraulic gold mining in the Sierra Nevada. Just under two-thirds of the area of the study site was depositional during this time period, while less than one-third of it was erosional. However, over the entire study period, the Suisun Bay area lost sediment, indicating that a large amount of erosion occurred from1887 to 1990. In fact, this area lost sediment during each of the change periods between 1887 and 1990. Because erosion and deposition are processes that may vary over space and time, further analyses of more specific areas were done to examine spatial and temporal patterns. The change in the Suisun Bay area from being a largely depositional environment to an erosional one is the result of a combination of several factors. These factors include the regulation and subsequent cessation of hydraulic mining practices, and the increase in flood control and water distribution projects that have decreased sediment supply to the bay by reducing the frequency and duration of peak flow conditions. Another pattern shown by the changing bathymetry is the substantial decrease in the area of tidal flat (defined in this study as the area between mean lower low water and the shoreline), particularly in Grizzly Bay and Honker Bay. These tidal flats are important to the bay ecosystem, providing stability and biologic diversity.

California↗

Using spatial, seasonal, and diel drift patterns of larval Lost River suckers Deltistes luxatus (Cypriniformes: Catostomidae) and shortnose suckers Chasmistes brevirostris (Cypriniformes: Catostomidae) to help identify a site for a water withdrawal structure on the Williamson River, Oregon

A small irrigation diversion dam near Chiloquin, Oregon, was removed and replaced with a pump station to improve fish passage for Lost River suckers (Deltistes luxatus) and shortnose suckers (Chasmistes brevirostris) entering the Sprague River on their spawning migrations. During the developmental phase of the pump station, a need was identified to better understand the larval drift characteristics of these endangered catostomids in order to reduce entrainment into the irrigation system. The spatial, seasonal, and diel distribution of drifting larvae was measured during the 2004 spawning season at two proposed sites on the Williamson River where the pump station could be located. Larval drift for both species coincided with the irrigation season making them subject to entrainment into the irrigation system. Drift occurred almost exclusively at night with larvae entering the drift at sunset and exiting the drift at sunrise. Nighttime larval densities were concentrated near the surface and at midchannel at both sites. Densities were generally greater on the side of mid-channel with greater flow. During early morning sampling we detected a general shift in larval drift from surface to subsurface drift. We also observed an increase in larval densities towards the shore opposite from the proposed pump station at the upper site whereas larval densities remained high at midchannel at the lower site. During daytime sampling, the few larvae that were collected were distributed throughout the water column at both pump sites. This study found that larvae drifting during all time periods were generally distributed further across the cross section, deeper in the water column, and closer to where the proposed water withdrawal structure would be built at the downstream site when compared to the upstream site. Recommendations were provided to locate the withdrawal facility at the upstream site and operate it in a manner such that larval entrainment would likely be minimized.

Oregon↗