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James Tributary summary: A summary of trends in tidal water quality and associated factors, 1985-2021

The James Tributary Summary outlines change over time for a suite of monitored tidal water quality parameters and associated potential drivers of those trends for the period 1985 – 2021 and provides a brief description of the current state of knowledge explaining these observed changes. Water quality parameters described include surface (above pycnocline) total nitrogen (TN), surface total phosphorus (TP), surface water temperature (WTEMP), spring and summer (June, July, August) surface chlorophyll a, summer bottom (below pycnocline) dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations, and Secchi disk depth (a measure of water clarity). Results for annual bottom TP, bottom TN, surface ortho-phosphate (PO4), surface dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), surface total suspended solids (TSS), and summer surface DO concentrations are provided in an Appendix. Drivers discussed include physiographic watershed characteristics, changes in TN, TP, and sediment loads from the watershed to tidal waters, expected effects of changing land use, and implementation of nutrient management and natural resource conservation practices. Factors internal to estuarine waters that also play a role as drivers are described including biogeochemical processes, physical forces such as wind-driven mixing of the water column and increase in rainfall intensity and volume, and biological factors such as phytoplankton biomass and the presence of submerged aquatic vegetation. Continuing to track water quality response and investigating these influencing factors are important steps to understanding water quality patterns and changes in the James River. The intended audiences for this report include, but are not limited to, 1) technical managers within jurisdictions who are looking at tidal water quality data and trying to understand why patterns are occurring, 2) local watershed organizations that are trying to understand these analyses and working to connect them to their local area(s), and 3) federal, state, and academic researchers. Figure 1 presents a conceptual model highlighting these intended audiences. Our goal is for the Tributary Summary documents to be sources of readily available background for change over time in tidal water quality observed with monitoring data. The intended purpose of the Tributary Summary documents is to help answer questions related to water quality, show how landscape factors drive water quality change over time, provide support for management decisions that may alter water quality trends and living resources conditions, and highlight where there may be information or knowledge gaps.

Virginia↗

Rappahannock tributary summary: A summary of trends in tidal water quality and associated factors, 1985-2022

The Rappahannock Tributary Summary outlines change over time for a suite of monitored tidal water quality parameters and associated potential drivers of those trends for the period of 1985 to 2022, and provides a brief description of the current state of knowledge explaining these observed changes. Water quality parameters described include surface (above pycnocline) total nitrogen (TN), surface total phosphorus (TP), surface water temperature (WTEMP), spring (March-May) and summer (JulySeptember) surface chlorophyll a, summer bottom (below pycnocline) dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations, and Secchi disk depth (a measure of water clarity). Results for annual bottom TP, bottom TN, surface ortho-phosphate (PO 4 ), surface dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), surface total suspended solids (TSS), and summer surface DO concentrations are provided in Appendix B. Drivers discussed include physiographic watershed characteristics, changes in TN, TP, and sediment loads from the watershed to tidal waters, expected effects of changing land use, and implementation of nutrient management and natural resource conservation practices. Factors internal to estuarine waters that also play a role as drivers are described including biogeochemical processes, physical forces such as winddriven mixing of the water column and increase in rainfall intensity and volume, and biological factors such as phytoplankton biomass and the presence of submerged aquatic vegetation. Continuing to track water quality response and investigating these influencing factors are important steps to understanding water quality patterns and changes in the Rappahannock River. The intended audiences for this report include, but are not limited to, 1) technical managers within jurisdictions who are looking at tidal water quality data and trying to understand why patterns are occurring, 2) local watershed organizations that are trying to understand these analyses and working to connect them to their local area(s), and 3) federal, state, and academic researchers. Figure 1 presents a conceptual model highlighting these intended audiences. Our goal is for the Tributary Summary documents to be sources of readily available background for change over time in tidal water quality observed with monitoring data. The intended purpose of the Tributary Summary documents is to help answer questions related to water quality, show how landscape factors drive water quality change over time, provide support for management decisions that may alter water quality trends and living resources conditions, and highlight where there may be information or knowledge gaps.

Virginia↗

The future of barriers and trapping methods in the sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) control program in the Laurentian Great Lakes

A major duty of the Great Lakes Fishery Commission (GLFC), created in 1955, was the development a program of eradication or management of sea lamprey populations in the Great Lakes for the protection of the Great Lakes fishery. Beginning in the 1980s the GLFC shifted sea lamprey control to an integrated pest management model seeking to deploy control measures which target multiple life stages. Currently control efforts focus on limiting the area of infestation using barriers to migratory adults and eradication of larvae from streams using selective pesticides. Feedback on program effectiveness is obtained by trapping migratory adult lamprey at a series of index sites around the basin. The GLFC continues to support multiple research initiatives to develop additional control, improve current control measures, and further advance the sea lamprey control program. During the past six decades sea lamprey control in the Great Lakes has evolved as the research program has identified technological advances. Here we summarize the current state and recent advancements for two of the sea lamprey control program’s core elements, barriers and traps, highlight challenges to be addressed to continue the advancement of these program elements, and provide a series of research questions to spur interest within the research community. Further, because considerable information about these program elements is scattered among grey literature and technical reports, we summarize the history of barriers and traps in sea lamprey control in the included appendices to provide relevant program background to anyone interested in pursuing these research topics.

Great Lakes↗

Modeling plant species distributions under future climates: how fine scale do climate projections need to be?

Recent studies suggest that species distribution models (SDMs) based on fine‐scale climate data may provide markedly different estimates of climate‐change impacts than coarse‐scale models. However, these studies disagree in their conclusions of how scale influences projected species distributions. In rugged terrain, coarse‐scale climate grids may not capture topographically controlled climate variation at the scale that constitutes microhabitat or refugia for some species. Although finer scale data are therefore considered to better reflect climatic conditions experienced by species, there have been few formal analyses of how modeled distributions differ with scale. We modeled distributions for 52 plant species endemic to the California Floristic Province of different life forms and range sizes under recent and future climate across a 2000‐fold range of spatial scales (0.008–16 km 2 ). We produced unique current and future climate datasets by separately downscaling 4 km climate models to three finer resolutions based on 800, 270, and 90 m digital elevation models and deriving bioclimatic predictors from them. As climate‐data resolution became coarser, SDMs predicted larger habitat area with diminishing spatial congruence between fine‐ and coarse‐scale predictions. These trends were most pronounced at the coarsest resolutions and depended on climate scenario and species' range size. On average, SDMs projected onto 4 km climate data predicted 42% more stable habitat (the amount of spatial overlap between predicted current and future climatically suitable habitat) compared with 800 m data. We found only modest agreement between areas predicted to be stable by 90 m models generalized to 4 km grids compared with areas classified as stable based on 4 km models, suggesting that some climate refugia captured at finer scales may be missed using coarser scale data. These differences in projected locations of habitat change may have more serious implications than net habitat area when predictive maps form the basis of conservation decision making.

California↗

Estimating the magnitude of decline of the Florida torreya ( Torreya taxifolia Arn.)

Torreya taxifolia is a coniferous tree that is endemic to the 35 km stretch of bluffs and ravines along the east side of the Apalachicola River in northern Florida and adjacent southern Georgia. This formerly locally abundant tree declined during the 1950s and 1960s as a result of disease and is currently on the US Endangered Species list. For sparsely distributed species it can often be difficult to determine both current and historic population sizes. Historical descriptions of the distribution (203 km 2 ) and relative abundance (14.2% of dominant ravine trees) of T. taxifolia are used along with current measures of forest structure to estimate the pre-decline population density (30 trees/ha) and size (∼0.3–0.65 million individuals). Survey information from five extant stands is used to estimate current population size (∼500–4000 individuals). The surveys were conducted in areas with known high tree densities such that a simple extrapolation to the entire distribution would produce a gross over-estimate of population size. We therefore use a variety of assumptions to produce a range of estimates for total population sizes. Regardless of the particular model, our estimates suggest that T. taxifolia has lost at least 98.5% of its total population size since the early 1900s. We discuss these results in relation to the potential difficulties likely of restoring sustainable populations of this species.

Biological Conservation↗

A new analysis of Mars "Special Regions": findings of the Second MEPAG Special Regions Science Analysis Group (SR-SAG2)

A committee of the Mars Exploration Program Analysis Group (MEPAG) has reviewed and updated the description of Special Regions on Mars as places where terrestrial organisms might replicate (per the COSPAR Planetary Protection Policy). This review and update was conducted by an international team (SR-SAG2) drawn from both the biological science and Mars exploration communities, focused on understanding when and where Special Regions could occur. The study applied recently available data about martian environments and about terrestrial organisms, building on a previous analysis of Mars Special Regions (2006) undertaken by a similar team. Since then, a new body of highly relevant information has been generated from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (launched in 2005) and Phoenix (2007) and data from Mars Express and the twin Mars Exploration Rovers (all 2003). Results have also been gleaned from the Mars Science Laboratory (launched in 2011). In addition to Mars data, there is a considerable body of new data regarding the known environmental limits to life on Earth—including the potential for terrestrial microbial life to survive and replicate under martian environmental conditions. The SR-SAG2 analysis has included an examination of new Mars models relevant to natural environmental variation in water activity and temperature; a review and reconsideration of the current parameters used to define Special Regions; and updated maps and descriptions of the martian environments recommended for treatment as "Uncertain" or "Special" as natural features or those potentially formed by the influence of future landed spacecraft. Significant changes in our knowledge of the capabilities of terrestrial organisms and the existence of possibly habitable martian environments have led to a new appreciation of where Mars Special Regions may be identified and protected. The SR-SAG also considered the impact of Special Regions on potential future human missions to Mars, both as locations of potential resources and as places that should not be inadvertently contaminated by human activity.

Astrobiology↗

Potomac Tributary Summary: A summary of trends in tidal water quality and associated factors, 1985 - 2022

The Potomac Tributary Summary outlines change over time for a suite of monitored tidal water quality parameters and associated potential drivers of those trends for the period of 1985 to 2022, and provides a brief description of the current state of knowledge explaining these observed changes. Water quality parameters described include surface (above pycnocline) total nitrogen (TN), surface total phosphorus (TP), surface water temperature (WTEMP), spring (March-May) and summer (July-September) surface chlorophyll a, summer bottom (below pycnocline) dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations, and Secchi disk depth (a measure of water clarity). Results for annual bottom TP, bottom TN, surface ortho-phosphate (PO4), surface dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), surface total suspended solids (TSS), and summer surface DO concentrations are provided in Appendix B. Drivers discussed include physiographic watershed characteristics, changes in TN, TP, and sediment loads from the watershed to tidal waters, expected effects of changing land use, and implementation of nutrient management and natural resource conservation practices. Factors internal to estuarine waters that also play a role as drivers are described including biogeochemical processes, physical forces such as wind driven mixing of the water column and increase in rainfall intensity and volume, and biological factors such as phytoplankton biomass and the presence of submerged aquatic vegetation. Continuing to track water quality response and investigating these influencing factors are important steps to understanding water quality patterns and changes in the Potomac River. The intended audiences for this report include, but are not limited to, 1) technical managers within jurisdictions who are looking at tidal water quality data and trying to understand why patterns are occurring, 2) local watershed organizations that are trying to understand these analyses and working to connect them to their local area(s), and 3) federal, state, and academic researchers. Figure 1 presents a conceptual model highlighting these intended audiences. Our goal is for the Tributary Summary documents to be sources of readily available background for change over time in tidal water quality observed with monitoring data. The intended purpose of the Tributary Summary documents is to help answer questions related to water quality, show how landscape factors drive water quality change over time, provide support for management decisions that may alter water quality trends and living resources conditions, and highlight where there may be information or knowledge gaps.

Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia↗

Lower Eastern Shore Tributary summary: A summary of trends in tidal water quality and associated factors, 1985-2023

The Lower Eastern Shore Tributary Summary outlines change over time according to a suite of monitored tidal water quality parameters and associated potential drivers of those trends for the period 1985 – 2023, and provides a brief description of the current state of knowledge explaining these observed changes. Water quality parameters described include surface (above pycnocline) total nitrogen (TN), surface total phosphorus (TP), surface water temperature (WTEMP), spring (March-May) and summer (July-September) surface chlorophyll a, summer bottom (below pycnocline) dissolved oxygen (DO) concentrations, and Secchi disk depth (a measure of water clarity). Results for annual bottom TP, bottom TN, surface ortho-phosphate (PO4), surface dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN), surface total suspended solids (TSS), and summer surface DO concentrations are provided in an Appendix B. Drivers discussed include physiographic watershed characteristics, changes in TN, TP, and sediment loads from the watershed to tidal waters, expected effects of changing land use, and implementation of nutrient management and natural resource conservation practices. Factors internal to estuarine waters that also play a role as drivers are described including biogeochemical processes, physical forces such as winddriven mixing of the water column and increase in rainfall intensity and volume, and biological factors such as phytoplankton biomass and the presence of submersed aquatic vegetation. Continuing to track water quality response and investigating these influencing factors are important steps to understanding water quality patterns and changes in the Lower Eastern Shore. The intended audiences for this report include, but are not limited to, 1) technical managers within jurisdictions who use tidal water quality to inform management decisions, 2) local watershed organizations that are trying to understand these analyses and working to connect them to their local area(s), and 3) federal, state, and academic researchers. Figure 1 presents a conceptual model highlighting these intended audiences. The Tributary Summary documents are sources of readily available background for change over time in tidal water quality observed with monitoring data. They help answer questions related to water quality, show how landscape factors drive water-quality changes over time, provide support for management decisions that may alter water quality trends and living resources conditions, and highlight where there may be information or knowledge gaps.

Maryland, Virginia↗

Recommended methods for range-wide monitoring of prairie dogs in the United States

One of the greatest challenges for conserving grassland, prairie scrub, and shrub-steppe ecosystems is maintaining prairie dog populations across the landscape. Of the four species of prairie dogs found in the United States, the Utah prairie dog (Cynomys parvidens) is listed under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) as threatened, the Gunnison's prairie dog (C. gunnisoni) is a candidate for listing in a portion of its range, and the black-tailed prairie dog (C. ludovicianus) and white-tailed prairie dog (C. leucurus) have each been petitioned for listing at least once in recent history. Although the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) determined listing is not warranted for either the black-tailed prairie dog or white-tailed prairie dog, the petitions and associated reviews demonstrated the need for the States to monitor and manage for self-sustaining populations. In response to these findings, a multi-State conservation effort was initiated for the nonlisted species which included the following proposed actions: (1) completing an assessment of each prairie dog species in each State, (2) developing a range-wide monitoring protocol for each species using a statistically valid sampling procedure that would allow comparable analyses across States, and (3) monitoring prairie dog status every 3-5 years depending upon the species. To date, each State has completed an assessment and currently is monitoring prairie dog status; however, for some species, the inconsistency in survey methodology has made it difficult to compare data year-to-year or State-to-State. At the Prairie Dog Conservation Team meeting held in November 2008, there was discussion regarding the use of different methods to survey prairie dogs. A recommendation from this meeting was to convene a panel in a workshop-type forum and have the panel review the different methods being used and provide recommendations for range-wide monitoring protocols for each species of prairie dog. Consequently, the Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies (WAFWA), in coordination with USFWS and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), hosted a prairie dog species survey methodology workshop January 25-28, 2010 in Fort Collins, Colorado. The workshop provided all WAFWA partners and interested parties the opportunity to present their survey methodology to a review panel made up of experts in the fields of quantitative biology, population biology, species biology, and biostatistics. This report presents the panel's survey methodology recommendations for each of the four species of prairie dogs found in the United States and, for the black-tailed prairie dog, a list of action items to facilitate implementation of the recommended methodology.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Waterfowl endozoochory: An overlooked long-distance dispersal mode for Cuscuta (dodder)

REMISE OF THE STUDY: Dispersal of parasitic Cuscuta species (dodders) worldwide has been assumed to be largely anthropomorphic because their seeds do not match any previously known dispersal syndrome and no natural dispersal vectors have been reliably documented. However, the genus has a subcosmopolitan distribution and recent phylogeographic results have indicated that at least18 historical cases of long-distance dispersal (LDD) have occurred during its evolution. The objective of this study is to report the first LDD biological vector for Cuscuta seeds. METHODS: Twelve northern pintails ( Anas acuta ) were collected from Suisun Marsh, California and the contents of their lowest part of the large intestine (rectum) were extracted and analyzed. Seed identification was done both morphologically and using a molecular approach. Extracted seeds were tested for germination and compared to seeds not subjected to gut passage to determine the extent of structural changes caused to the seed coat by passing through the digestive tract. KEY RESULTS: Four hundred and twenty dodder seeds were found in the rectum of four northern pintails. From these, 411 seeds were identified as Cuscuta campestris and nine as most likely C. pacifica . The germination rate of C. campestris seeds after gut passage was 55%. Structural changes caused by the gut passage in both species were similar to those caused by an acid scarification. CONCLUSIONS: Endozoochory by waterbirds may explain the historical LDD cases in the evolution of Cuscuta . This also suggests that current border quarantine measures may be insufficient to stopping spreading of dodder pests along migratory flyways.

American Journal of Botany↗

Occupancy of yellow-billed and Pacific loons: evidence for interspecific competition and habitat mediated co-occurrence

Interspecific competition is an important process structuring ecological communities, however, it is difficult to observe in nature. We used an occupancy modelling approach to evaluate evidence of competition between yellow-billed ( Gavia adamsii ) and Pacific ( G. pacifica ) loons for nesting lakes on the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska. With multiple years of data and survey platforms, we estimated dynamic occupancy states (e.g. rates of colonization or extinction from individual lakes) and controlled for detection differences among aircraft platforms and ground survey crews. Results indicated that yellow-billed loons were strong competitors and negatively influenced the occupancy of Pacific loons by excluding them from potential breeding lakes. Pacific loon occupancy was conditional on the presence of yellow-billed loons, with Pacific loons having almost a tenfold decrease in occupancy probability when yellow-billed loons were present and a threefold decrease in colonization probability when yellow-billed loons were present in the current or previous year. Yellow-billed and Pacific loons co-occurred less than expected by chance except on very large lakes or lakes with convoluted shorelines; variables which may decrease the cost of maintaining a territory in the presence of the other species. These results imply the existence of interspecific competition between yellow-billed and Pacific loons for nesting lakes; however, habitat characteristics which facilitate visual and spatial separation of territories can reduce competitive interactions and promote species co-occurrence.

Alaska↗

Shorebirds in western North America: Late 1800s to late 1900s

Only anecdotal information is available to assess whether populations of the 47 shorebird species that breed or winter west of the Rocky Mountains changed in size or distribution during the past century. Unregulated hunting from 1870 to 1927 reduced populations of several species, at least temporarily, and was a factor in bringing the Eskimo Curlew ( Numenius borealis ) close to extinction. Large scale transformation of native grasslands and wetlands for agriculture and other purposes resulted in population declines and nesting range contractions of several temperate-zone breeders. In general, upland species were affected more than wetland species, breeding ranges contracted westward, and alteration of breeding habitat was the factor most responsible for range contractions and population declines. A ranking system assessing shorebird susceptibility to habitat alteration also predicted temperate breeders to be among the most vulnerable species to environmental change. The few estimates for current population sizes of western North American shorebirds range from fewer than 50 Eskimo Curlews to a few million Western Sandpipers ( Calidris mauri ), the most abundant species. Concentrations of at least 1000 shorebirds occur on migration at over 120 western North American sites and of 100,000 to 1,000,000 shorebirds at 18 sites. Whether populations are limited by conditions on breeding, wintering or migration ranges is unknown for most species. Expansion of ongoing programs coupled with economical new census efforts could be useful for monitoring the majority of western North American shorebirds during the next century.

Studies in Avian Biology↗

U.S. Department of the Interior South Central Climate Science Center strategic science plan, 2013--18

The Department of the Interior (DOI) recognizes and embraces the unprecedented challenges of maintaining our Nation’s rich natural and cultural resources in the 21st century. The magnitude of these challenges demands that the conservation community work together to develop integrated adaptation and mitigation strategies that collectively address the impacts of climate change and other landscape-scale stressors. On September 14, 2009, DOI Secretary Ken Salazar signed Secretarial Order 3289 (amended February 22, 2010) entitled, “Addressing the Impacts of Climate Change on America’s Water, Land, and Other Natural and Cultural Resources.” The Order establishes the foundation for two partner-based conservation science entities to address these unprecedented challenges: Climate Science Centers (CSCs and Landscape Conservation Cooperatives (LCCs). CSCs and LCCs are the Department-wide approach for applying scientific tools to increase understanding of climate change and to coordinate an effective response to its impacts on tribes and the land, water, ocean, fish and wildlife, and cultural-heritage resources that DOI manages. Eight CSCs have been established and are managed through the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center (NCCWSC); each CSC works in close collaboration with their neighboring CSCs, as well as those across the Nation, to ensure the best and most efficient science is produced. The South Central CSC was established in 2012 through a cooperative agreement with the University of Oklahoma, Texas Tech University, Louisiana State University, the Chickasaw Nation, the Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma, Oklahoma State University, and NOAA’s Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab; hereafter termed the ”Consortium” of the South Central CSC. The Consortium has a broad expertise in the physical, biological, natural, and social sciences to address impacts of climate change on land, water, fish and wildlife, ocean, coastal, and cultural resources. The South Central CSC will provide scientific information, tools, and techniques that managers and other parties interested in land, water, wildlife, and cultural resources can use to anticipate, monitor, and adapt to climate change, actively engaging LCCs and other partners in translating science into management decisions. This document is the first Strategic Science Plan for the South Central CSC (2013-18). Using the January 2011 DOI guidance as a model, this document (1) describes the role and interactions of the South Central CSC among partners and stakeholders including Federal, State, and non-governmental organizations throughout the region; (2) describes a concept of what the center will provide to its partners; (3) defines a context for climate impacts in the south central United States; and (4) establishes the science priorities the center will address through research. Science priorities are currently organized as immediate or future research needs; however, this document is intended to be reevaluated and modified as partner needs change and as scientific work progresses.

Open-File Report↗

Approaches to the conservation of coastal wetlands in the Western Hemisphere

Coastal wetlands rank among the most productive and ecologically valuable natural ecosystems on Earth. Unfortunately, they are also some of the most disturbed. Because they are productive and can serve as transportation arteries, coastal wetlands have long attracted human settlement. More than half of the U.S. population currently lives within 80 km of its coasts, and one estimate places 70% of all humanity in the coastal zone. Human impacts to coastal wetlands include physical alteration of hydrological processes; the introduction of toxic materials, nutrients, heat, and exotic species; and the unsustainable harvest of native species. Between 1950 and 1970, coastal wetland losses in the U.S. averaged 8 100 ha/year. In Central and South America, development pressures along the coastal zone rank among the most serious natural resource problems in the region..... Here, we (1) briefly describe coastal wetland avifauna, (2) discuss the threat of global warming on coastal wetlands, (3) use several Western Hemisphere wetlands as site-specific examples of development pressures facing these habitats, and (4) provide synopses of nongovernmental and governmental approaches to wetland conservation. Overall, we provide a socio-economic context for conservation of coastal wetlands in the Western Hemisphere. We suggest that efforts aimed at conserving sites of particular importance for their biological diversity should be pursued within a framework of wise use that addresses the broader issues of human population growth and economic development.

The Wilson Bulletin↗

Robotic environmental DNA bio-surveillance of freshwater health

Autonomous water sampling technologies may help to overcome the human resource challenges of monitoring biological threats to rivers over long time periods and large geographic areas. The Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute has pioneered a robotic Environmental Sample Processor (ESP) that overcomes some of the constraints associated with traditional sampling since it can automate water sample filtration and preservation of the captured material or homogenize it for immediate analyses in situ. The ESP was originally developed for marine environment applications. Here we evaluated whether the ESP can provide reliable, timely information on environmental (e)DNA detections of human and fish pathogens and introduced fishes at U.S. Geological Survey streamgage sites in freshwater rivers. We compared eDNA collected via ESP at high frequency (e.g., every 3 h) with manual eDNA collections collected at lower frequency (e.g., weekly). We found that water samples filtered and preserved by ESPs successfully detected the DNA of human pathogens, fish pathogens and introduced fishes. Both ESP and manually collected samples provided similar information about target DNA presence. We suggest that the greatest current benefit of the ESP is the cost savings of high frequency, bio-surveillance at remote or hard to access sites. The full potential of robotic technologies like the ESP will be realized when they can more easily execute in situ analyses of water samples and rapidly transmit results to decision-makers.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming↗

Ecosystem carbon stocks and sequestration potential of federal lands across the conterminous United States

Federal lands across the conterminous United States (CONUS) account for 23.5% of the CONUS terrestrial area but have received no systematic studies on their ecosystem carbon (C) dynamics and contribution to the national C budgets. The methodology for US Congress-mandated national biological C sequestration potential assessment was used to evaluate ecosystem C dynamics in CONUS federal lands at present and in the future under three Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emission Scenarios (IPCC SRES) A1B, A2, and B1. The total ecosystem C stock was estimated as 11,613 Tg C in 2005 and projected to be 13,965 Tg C in 2050, an average increase of 19.4% from the baseline. The projected annual C sequestration rate (in kilograms of carbon per hectare per year) from 2006 to 2050 would be sinks of 620 and 228 for forests and grasslands, respectively, and C sources of 13 for shrublands. The federal lands’ contribution to the national ecosystem C budget could decrease from 23.3% in 2005 to 20.8% in 2050. The C sequestration potential in the future depends not only on the footprint of individual ecosystems but also on each federal agency’s land use and management. The results presented here update our current knowledge about the baseline ecosystem C stock and sequestration potential of federal lands, which would be useful for federal agencies to decide management practices to achieve the national greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation goal.

PNAS↗

Strategic planning of prevention and surveillance for emerging diseases and invasive species

Emerging infectious diseases and biological invasions pose increasing threats to public and ecosystems health. Proactive measures—such as prevention and surveillance taken before initial detection of the pathogen or species—are essential to ensure minimal spread prior to first detection. We developed an optimization model to determine where, when, and how much effort should be allocated to prevention versus surveillance. The model accounts for imperfect detection, system dynamics, spatial heterogeneity in risk and costs and is scalable to large landscapes. We found that the most cost-effective strategy is to maintain the prevention and surveillance efforts at stable equilibrium for the majority of the time, with deviations occurring only initially to steer the system toward the equilibrium. The equilibrium effort is jointly determined by the introduction risk, management costs, and total budget. Application of this model to chronic wasting disease in New York State suggests that the optimal strategy could reduce the cumulative disease cases before initial detection by an average of 22% compared to current practice. The optimal surveillance strategy could detect the disease on average over 8 mo earlier than the current strategy.

PNAS↗

The needs of salmon and steelhead in balancing their conservation and use

Over the past 100 years, Pacific salmon Oncorhynchus spp. and steelhead trout O. mykiss populations in the Pacific Northwest have experienced dramatic declines as a result of human population growth and associated development of the region's natural resources. Any strategy to reverse those declines will depend on achieving consensus among a diverse group of stakeholders willing to (1) restore damaged habitats and watersheds; (2) consider the biological needs of salmonid fishes; and (3) understand, conserve, and manage existing levels of biodiversity within an ecosystem context. The objective of this chapter is to review and summarize the needs of Pacific salmon and steelhead trout from perspectives that promote their sustainability and perpetuity, and, within that context, provide a framework, for the development of a sustainable fisheries strategy. Although volumes of information are available on the life histories and habitat requirements of Pacific salmonids, new concepts have begun to address the importance of habitat complexity, genetic diversity among locally adapted populations, and the need for appropriate units of conservation. Habitat variability and complexity are the templates that produce diverse, locally adapted populations of Pacific salmon and steelhead trout. Molded by conditions in the environments they colonized, salmon and steelhead have unique adaptations they may have taken hundred i?? perhaps thousands i?? of years to evolve. Any strategy to reverse the declines of salmon and steelhead must focus on conserving both current levels of genetic diversity as well as restoration and maintenance of habitats compatible with the specific needs of individual populations. An argument can be made that we know enough already about the needs of our salmon and steelhead to allow us to make appropriate decisions. There is strong need to integrate what we know about local salmonid adaptations and habitat needs with conservation and management strategies that address the problems we have created. It may be possible to have healthy, sustainable salmonid populations coastwide if we do not wait too long to make up our minds.

Book chapter↗