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At least 919 records · Page 51Linked to original sources
USGS2011

Optimal timing for managed relocation of species faced with climate change

Managed relocation is a controversial climate-adaptation strategy to combat negative climate change impacts on biodiversity. While the scientific community debates the merits of managed relocation 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,12 , species are already being moved to new areas predicted to be more suitable under climate change 13,14 . To inform these moves, we construct a quantitative decision framework to evaluate the timing of relocation in the face of climate change. We find that the optimal timing depends on many factors, including the size of the population, the demographic costs of translocation and the expected carrying capacities over time in the source and destination habitats. In some settings, such as when a small population would benefit from time to grow before risking translocation losses, haste is ill advised. We also find that active adaptive management 15,16 is valuable when the effect of climate change on source habitat is uncertain, and leads to delayed movement.

Nature Climate Change↗
USGS2014

Invasive hybridization in a threatened species is accelerated by climate change

Climate change will decrease worldwide biodiversity through a number of potential pathways 1 , including invasive hybridization 2 (cross-breeding between invasive and native species). How climate warming influences the spread of hybridization and loss of native genomes poses difficult ecological and evolutionary questions with little empirical information to guide conservation management decisions 3 . Here we combine long-term genetic monitoring data with high-resolution climate and stream temperature predictions to evaluate how recent climate warming has influenced the spatio-temporal spread of human-mediated hybridization between threatened native westslope cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi ) and non-native rainbow trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ), the world’s most widely introduced invasive fish 4 . Despite widespread release of millions of rainbow trout over the past century within the Flathead River system 5 , a large relatively pristine watershed in western North America, historical samples revealed that hybridization was prevalent only in one (source) population. During a subsequent 30-year period of accelerated warming, hybridization spread rapidly and was strongly linked to interactions between climatic drivers—precipitation and temperature—and distance to the source population. Specifically, decreases in spring precipitation and increases in summer stream temperature probably promoted upstream expansion of hybridization throughout the system. This study shows that rapid climate warming can exacerbate interactions between native and non-native species through invasive hybridization, which could spell genomic extinction for many species.

Alberta, Idaho, Montana↗
USGS2016

Key ecological responses to nitrogen are altered by climate change

Climate change and anthropogenic nitrogen deposition are both important ecological threats. Evaluating their cumulative effects provides a more holistic view of ecosystem vulnerability to human activities, which would better inform policy decisions aimed to protect the sustainability of ecosystems. Our knowledge of the cumulative effects of these stressors is growing, but we lack an integrated understanding. In this Review, we describe how climate change alters key processes in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems related to nitrogen cycling and availability, and the response of ecosystems to nitrogen addition in terms of carbon cycling, acidification and biodiversity.

Nature Climate Change↗
USGS2023

Permafrost microbial communities and functional genes are structured by latitudinal and soil geochemical gradients

Permafrost underlies approximately one quarter of Northern Hemisphere terrestrial surfaces and contains 25–50% of the global soil carbon (C) pool. Permafrost soils and the C stocks within are vulnerable to ongoing and future projected climate warming. The biogeography of microbial communities inhabiting permafrost has not been examined beyond a small number of sites focused on local-scale variation. Permafrost is different from other soils. Perennially frozen conditions in permafrost dictate that microbial communities do not turn over quickly, thus possibly providing strong linkages to past environments. Thus, the factors structuring the composition and function of microbial communities may differ from patterns observed in other terrestrial environments. Here, we analyzed 133 permafrost metagenomes from North America, Europe, and Asia. Permafrost biodiversity and taxonomic distribution varied in relation to pH, latitude and soil depth. The distribution of genes differed by latitude, soil depth, age, and pH. Genes that were the most highly variable across all sites were associated with energy metabolism and C-assimilation. Specifically, methanogenesis, fermentation, nitrate reduction, and replenishment of citric acid cycle intermediates. This suggests that adaptations to energy acquisition and substrate availability are among some of the strongest selective pressures shaping permafrost microbial communities. The spatial variation in metabolic potential has primed communities for specific biogeochemical processes as soils thaw due to climate change, which could cause regional- to global- scale variation in C and nitrogen processing and greenhouse gas emissions.

The ISME Journal↗
USGS2020

Quantifying and addressing the prevalence and bias of study designs in the environmental and social sciences

Building trust in science and evidence-based decision-making depends heavily on the credibility of studies and their findings. Researchers employ many different study designs that vary in their risk of bias to evaluate the true effect of interventions or impacts. Here, we empirically quantify, on a large scale, the prevalence of different study designs and the magnitude of bias in their estimates. Randomised designs and controlled observational designs with pre-intervention sampling were used by just 23% of intervention studies in biodiversity conservation, and 36% of intervention studies in social science. We demonstrate, through pairwise within-study comparisons across 49 environmental datasets, that these types of designs usually give less biased estimates than simpler observational designs. We propose a model-based approach to combine study estimates that may suffer from different levels of study design bias, discuss the implications for evidence synthesis, and how to facilitate the use of more credible study designs.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2026

Environment, taxonomy, and socioeconomics predict non-imperilment in freshwater fishes

Freshwater fishes are among the most threatened taxa, yet conservation assessments remain incomplete for many species. Freshwater fishes provide essential ecosystem services such as food security, recreational opportunities, and cultural significance. Despite heavy alterations to freshwater ecosystems, the reasons for species’ sensitivity and resistance to imperilment are unclear. To address this need, we develop a machine learning framework to predict global imperilment status for 10,631 freshwater fish species using a comprehensive set of environmental, socioeconomic, and intrinsic species-level predictors. Using updated IUCN Red List data, we train and validate Random Forest classifiers to distinguish imperiled (Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered) from non-imperiled species. We examine the relative influence of 52 variables derived from 12 global sources describing extrinsic environmental and socioeconomic factors and intrinsic species-specific characteristics. Our models achieve higher accuracy for non-imperiled species (90.1%) compared to imperiled species (81.8%), reflecting the greater heterogeneity of threats and conditions driving imperilment. Across models, key predictors include habitat variables, taxonomic order, hydrological characteristics, and disturbance indicators, underscoring the interplay between ecology, geography, and human pressures. This integrative, reproducible approach demonstrates the utility of machine learning for guiding proactive conservation and provides a scalable framework for global biodiversity risk assessment.

Nature Communications↗
USGS2023

Ocean current patterns drive the worldwide colonization of eelgrass (Zostera marina)

Currents are unique drivers of oceanic phylogeography and thus determine the distribution of marine coastal species, along with past glaciations and sea-level changes. Here we reconstruct the worldwide colonization history of eelgrass ( Zostera marina L.), the most widely distributed marine flowering plant or seagrass from its origin in the Northwest Pacific, based on nuclear and chloroplast genomes. We identified two divergent Pacific clades with evidence for admixture along the East Pacific coast. Two west-to-east (trans-Pacific) colonization events support the key role of the North Pacific Current. Time-calibrated nuclear and chloroplast phylogenies yielded concordant estimates of the arrival of Z. marina in the Atlantic through the Canadian Arctic, suggesting that eelgrass-based ecosystems, hotspots of biodiversity and carbon sequestration, have only been present there for ~243 ky (thousand years). Mediterranean populations were founded ~44 kya, while extant distributions along western and eastern Atlantic shores were founded at the end of the Last Glacial Maximum (~19 kya), with at least one major refuge being the North Carolina region. The recent colonization and five- to sevenfold lower genomic diversity of the Atlantic compared to the Pacific populations raises concern and opportunity about how Atlantic eelgrass might respond to rapidly warming coastal oceans.

Nature Plants↗
USGS2024

Hotspots of biogeochemical activity linked to aridity and plant traits across global drylands

Perennial plants create productive and biodiverse hotspots, known as fertile islands, beneath their canopies. These hotspots largely determine the structure and functioning of drylands worldwide. Despite their ubiquity, the factors controlling fertile islands under conditions of contrasting grazing by livestock, the most prevalent land use in drylands, remain virtually unknown. Here we evaluated the relative importance of grazing pressure and herbivore type, climate and plant functional traits on 24 soil physical and chemical attributes that represent proxies of key ecosystem services related to decomposition, soil fertility, and soil and water conservation. To do this, we conducted a standardized global survey of 288 plots at 88 sites in 25 countries worldwide. We show that aridity and plant traits are the major factors associated with the magnitude of plant effects on fertile islands in grazed drylands worldwide. Grazing pressure had little influence on the capacity of plants to support fertile islands. Taller and wider shrubs and grasses supported stronger island effects. Stable and functional soils tended to be linked to species-rich sites with taller plants. Together, our findings dispel the notion that grazing pressure or herbivore type are linked to the formation or intensification of fertile islands in drylands. Rather, our study suggests that changes in aridity, and processes that alter island identity and therefore plant traits, will have marked effects on how perennial plants support and maintain the functioning of drylands in a more arid and grazed world.

Nature Plants↗
USGS2019

The fate of Madagascar's rainforest habitat

Madagascar has experienced extensive deforestation and overharvesting, and anthropogenic climate change will compound these pressures. Anticipating these threats to endangered species and their ecosystems requires considering both climate change and habitat loss effects. The genus Varecia (ruffed lemurs), which is composed of two Critically Endangered forest-obligate species, can serve as a status indicator of the biodiverse eastern rainforest of Madagascar. Here, we combined decades of research to show that the suitable habitat for ruffed lemurs could be reduced by 29–59% from deforestation, 14–75% from climate change (representative concentration pathway 8.5) or 38–93% from both by 2070. If current protected areas avoid further deforestation, climate change will still reduce the suitable habitat by 62% (range: 38–83%). If ongoing deforestation continues, the suitable habitat will decline by 81% (range: 66–93%). Maintaining and enhancing the integrity of protected areas, where rates of forest loss are lower, will be essential for ensuring persistence of the diversity of the rapidly diminishing Malagasy rainforests.

Nature Climate Change↗
USGS2024

Aligning renewable energy expansion with climate-driven range shifts

Fossil fuel dependence can be reduced, in part, by renewable energy expansion. Increasingly, renewable energy siting seeks to avoid significant impacts on biodiversity but rarely considers how species ranges will shift under climate change. Here we undertake a systematic literature review on the topic and overlay future renewable energy siting maps with the ranges of two threatened species under future climate scenarios to highlight this potential conflict.

Nature Climate Change↗
USGS2024

Near-term ecological forecasting for climate change action

A substantial increase in predictive capacity is needed to anticipate and mitigate the widespread change in ecosystems and their services in the face of climate and biodiversity crises. In this era of accelerating change, we cannot rely on historical patterns or focus primarily on long-term projections that extend decades into the future. In this Perspective, we discuss the potential of near-term (daily to decadal) iterative ecological forecasting to improve decision-making on actionable time frames. We summarize the current status of ecological forecasting and focus on how to scale up, build on lessons from weather forecasting, and take advantage of recent technological advances. We also highlight the need to focus on equity, workforce development, and broad cross-disciplinary and non-academic partnerships.

Nature Climate Change↗
USGS2017

A decade of insights into grassland ecosystem responses to global environmental change

Earth’s biodiversity and carbon uptake by plants, or primary productivity, are intricately interlinked, underlie many essential ecosystem processes, and depend on the interplay among environmental factors, many of which are being changed by human activities. While ecological theory generalizes across taxa and environments, most empirical tests of factors controlling diversity and productivity have been observational, single-site experiments, or meta-analyses, limiting our understanding of variation among site-level responses and tests of general mechanisms. A synthesis of results from ten years of a globally distributed, coordinated experiment, the Nutrient Network (NutNet), demonstrates that species diversity promotes ecosystem productivity and stability, and that nutrient supply and herbivory control diversity via changes in composition, including invasions of non-native species and extinction of native species. Distributed experimental networks are a powerful tool for tests and integration of multiple theories and for generating multivariate predictions about the effects of global changes on future ecosystems.

Nature Ecology & Evolution↗
USGS2017

New interventions are needed to save coral reefs

Since 2014, coral reefs worldwide have been subjected to the most extensive, prolonged and damaging heat wave in recorded history1. Large sections of Australia’s Great Barrier Reef (GBR) bleached in response to heat stress in 2016 and 2017 — the first back-to-back event on record. Such severe coral bleaching results in widespread loss of reef habitat and biodiversity. Globally, we are facing catastrophic decline of these ecosystems, which sustain services valued at around $US 10 trillion per year2, are home to over a million species3, and feed and support the livelihoods of hundreds of millions of people4. Model predictions indicate that mass coral bleaching could become the new norm by 2050 (ref. 5). Critically, even if global warming can be kept within 1.5⁰C above preindustrial levels, shallow tropical seas would warm at least 0.4°C in coming decades, triggering frequent bleaching of the most sensitive habitat-forming coral species6. This outlook poses a time-critical decision challenge for management and conservation. Existing conservation approaches, despite innovative governance arrangements7, could simply become insufficient to protect coral reefs under any expected climate future. Thus, for coral reefs to remain resilient and their services sustained, we argue that new and potentially riskier interventions must be implemented alongside conventional management efforts and strong action to curb global warming. We build the case for this strategy below.

Nature Ecology & Evolution↗
USGS2024

Species diversity links land consolidation to rodent disease

Four decades of data on rodent species composition and hantavirus prevalence across a changing urban–agricultural landscape demonstrate that long-term data are key for understanding links between biodiversity loss and disease dynamics

Nature Ecology & Evolution↗
USGS2026

Abiotic and biotic controls of non-native perennial plant success in drylands

Drivers of non-native plant success in drylands are poorly understood. Here we identify functional differences between dryland native and non-native perennial plants and assess how biotic, abiotic and anthropogenic factors shape the success of the latter. On the basis of plant community and functional trait data from 98 sites across 25 countries, we report a total of 41 non-native plant species at 31 sites. Non-natives tend towards faster growth strategies than natives. Non-native plant richness is higher at sites with greater grazing pressure and under environmental conditions associated with higher soil fertility, decomposition and fungal richness—conditions that tend to occur in less arid regions—and lower where native plant and herbivore richness are greater. Non-native plant cover correlates positively with grazing pressure and negatively with native plant richness. Taken together, our results suggest that non-native plant success in drylands is facilitated when high grazing pressure coincides with elevated resource availability. Such context-dependence of non-native plant success and linkages with native plant and herbivore diversity highlight the need for managing grazing and conserving biodiversity across the world’s drylands.

Nature Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2021

Opportunities and challenges of macrogenetic studies

The rapidly emerging field of macrogenetics focuses on analysing publicly accessible genetic datasets from thousands of species to explore large-scale patterns and predictors of intraspecific genetic variation. Facilitated by advances in evolutionary biology, technology, data infrastructure, statistics and open science, macrogenetics addresses core evolutionary hypotheses (such as disentangling environmental and life-history effects on genetic variation) with a global focus. Yet, there are important, often overlooked, limitations to this approach and best practices need to be considered and adopted if macrogenetics is to continue its exciting trajectory and reach its full potential in fields such as biodiversity monitoring and conservation. Here, we review the history of this rapidly growing field, highlight knowledge gaps and future directions, and provide guidelines for further research.

Nature Reviews Genetics↗
USGS2025

Fungal impacts on Earth’s ecosystems

Over the past billion years, the fungal kingdom has diversified to more than two million species, with over 95% still undescribed. Beyond the well-known macroscopic mushrooms and microscopic yeast, fungi are heterotrophs that feed on almost any organic carbon, recycling nutrients through the decay of dead plants and animals and sequestering carbon into Earth’s ecosystems. Human-directed applications of fungi extend from leavened bread, alcoholic beverages and biofuels to pharmaceuticals, including antibiotics and psychoactive compounds. Conversely, fungal infections pose risks to ecosystems ranging from crops to wildlife to humans; these risks are driven, in part, by human and animal movement, and might be accelerating with climate change. Genomic surveys are expanding our knowledge of the true biodiversity of the fungal kingdom, and genome-editing tools make it possible to imagine harnessing these organisms to fuel the bioeconomy. Here, we examine the fungal threats facing civilization and investigate opportunities to use fungi to combat these threats.

Nature↗
USGS2021

A global dataset of inland fisheries expert knowledge

Inland fisheries and their freshwater habitats face intensifying effects from multiple natural and anthropogenic pressures. Fish harvest and biodiversity data remain largely disparate and severely deficient in many areas, which makes assessing and managing inland fisheries difficult. Expert knowledge is increasingly used to improve and inform biological or vulnerability assessments, especially in data-poor areas. Integrating expert knowledge on the distribution, intensity, and relative influence of human activities can guide natural resource management strategies and institutional resource allocation and prioritization. This paper introduces a dataset summarizing the expert-perceived state of inland fisheries at the basin (fishery) level. An electronic survey distributed to professional networks (June-September 2020) captured expert perceptions (n = 536) of threats, successes, and adaptive capacity to fisheries across 93 hydrological basins, 79 countries, and all major freshwater habitat types. This dataset can be used to address research questions with conservation relevance, including: demographic influences on perceptions of threat, adaptive capacities for climate change, external factors driving multi-stressor interactions, and geospatial threat assessments.

Scientific Data↗