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At least 919 records · Page 51Linked to original sources

Sedimentological reconstruction of hurricane storm surges from a carbonate reef coastline at Anegada, British Virgin Islands

Anegada is a small, low-lying carbonate island in the British Virgin Islands that is highly vulnerable to marine inundation from frequent hurricanes. A major challenge in forecasting the timing, intensity, and impacts of future hurricanes to islands such as Anegada is the limited short-term instrumental record that does not capture the full spectrum of inundation events from the frequent but low-magnitude to rare, but high-magnitude events. Washover deposits, which are transported onshore by hurricane-related storm surges and preserved within the onshore stratigraphy, can provide insight into the recurrence of these events. Here, we use grain size distributions, X-ray fluorescence (XRF) data, and an inverse sediment transport model to characterize a series of anomalous sand deposits from shallow hypersaline ponds to determine the variability in storm surges impacting Anegada over at least the last 70 years. The analyses were successfully applied to modern analogues of storms impacting Anegada's southern shoreline (Hurricanes Donna in 1960 at Category 3; Earl in 2010 at Category 4; and Irma in 2017 at Category 5). These deposits are identified by coarse-grained material and elevated marine geochemical signals (Ca, Sr, ln(Br/Ti)). Inverse modelled flow parameters (average flow depth = 0.89–1.46 m relative to the reef flat, average flow speed = 2.95–3.78 m/s) agree with observational data and eyewitness accounts, and the deposit associated with Hurricane Donna indicates the greatest impacts occurred along the southern shoreline (modelled flow depth = 1.24–1.46 m relative to the reef flat, flow speed = 3.49–3.78 m/s). Using the modern analogues as a basis for comparison, we infer the origin of an older sand deposit to be from Hurricane Dog in 1950, when it tracked by Anegada as a Category 3 storm. This methodology provides a transferable framework for interpreting storm recurrence in carbonate-dominated coastlines worldwide that could be used to inform hurricane hazard assessments and risk management efforts.

Anegada↗

Slipstream: an early Holocene slump and turbidite record from the frontal ridge of the Cascadia accretionary wedge off western Canada and paleoseismic implications

Slipstream Slump, a well-preserved 3 km wide sedimentary failure from the frontal ridge of the Cascadia accretionary wedge 85 km off Vancouver Island, Canada, was sampled during Canadian Coast Guard Ship (CCGS) John P. Tully cruise 2008007PGC along a transect of five piston cores. Shipboard sediment analysis and physical property logging revealed 12 turbidites interbedded with thick hemipelagic sediments overlying the slumped glacial diamict. Despite the different sedimentary setting, atop the abyssal plain fan, this record is similar in number and age to the sequence of turbidites sampled farther to the south from channel systems along the Cascadia Subduction Zone, with no extra turbidites present in this local record. Given the regional physiographic and tectonic setting, megathrust earthquake shaking is the most likely trigger for both the initial slumping and subsequent turbidity currents, with sediments sourced exclusively from the exposed slump face of the frontal ridge. Planktonic foraminifera picked from the resedimented diamict of the underlying main slump have a disordered cluster of 14 C ages between 12.8 and 14.5 ka BP. For the post-slump stratigraphy, an event-free depth scale is defined by removing the turbidite sediment intervals and using the hemipelagic sediments. Nine 14 C dates from the most foraminifera-rich intervals define a nearly constant hemipelagic sedimentation rate of 0.021 cm/year. The combined age model is defined using only planktonic foraminiferal dates and Bayesian analysis with a Poisson-process sedimentation model. The age model of ongoing hemipelagic sedimentation is strengthened by physical property correlations from Slipstream events to the turbidites for the Barkley Canyon site 40 km south. Additional modelling addressed the possibilities of seabed erosion or loss and basal erosion beneath turbidites. Neither of these approaches achieves a modern seabed age when applying the commonly used regional marine 14 C reservoir age of 800 years (marine reservoir correction Δ R = 400 years). Rather, the top of the core appears to be 400 years in the future. A younger marine reservoir age of 400 years (Δ R = 0 years) brings the top to the present and produces better correlations with the nearby Effingham Inlet paleo-earthquake chronology based only on terrestrial carbon requiring no reservoir correction. The high-resolution dating and facies analysis of Slipstream Slump in this isolated slope basin setting demonstrates that this is also a useful type of sedimentary target for sampling the paleoseismic record in addition to the more studied turbidites from submarine canyon and channel systems. The first 10 turbidites at Slipstream Slump were deposited between 10.8 and 6.6 ka BP, after which the system became sediment starved and only two more turbidites were deposited. The recurrence interval for the inferred frequent early Holocene megathrust earthquakes is 460 ± 140 years, compatible with other estimates of paleoseismic megathrust earthquake occurrence rates along the subduction zone.

Slipstream Slump↗

The temperature dependence of isothermal moisture vs. potential characteristics of soils

A method has been developed for rapid, transient measurement of hysteretic soil-moisture characteristics as a function of temperature. While a varying soil-water pressure was imposed on a thin sample by means of flexible membranes held in firm contact with the soil, water content was measured by gamma-ray attenuation, and matric potential was measured with tensiometers. The applied pressure was cycled through a program designed to obtain hysteretic θ(ψ) main and scanning curves. Isothermal characteristics were measured for 181-µm glass beads, Plainfield (Typic Udipsamments) sand, and an undisturbed core of Plano (Typic Argiudolls) silt loam at several temperatures in the 4° to 50°C range. At each temperature the measurements included main drying and wetting curves covering the θ range from 0.30 to 0.05 m 3 water/m 3 for glass beads, 0.30 to 0.17 for sand, and 0.45 to 0.37 for silt loam. A model has been developed to quantify the temperature dependence as a function of θ. Combined with an isothermal hysteresis model of Mualem, this model requires only three characteristic functions to represent all hysteretic θ(ψ) curves for a given medium at all temperatures. Model calculations for the sand and silt loam data indicate that except near saturation, the temperature effect is greater than can be accounted for by the temperature dependence of the surface tension of pure water. The results rule out several possible explanations but they support the hypothesis that the concentration and effectiveness of dissolved surfactants increases with temperature.

Soil Science Society of America Journal↗

Research plan for lands administered by the U.S. Department of the Interior in the Interior Columbia Basin and Snake River Plateau

This document presents a long-term research strategy designed to address current and future research needs for management of Department of the Interior-administered ecosystems in the Intermountain West. Although the research plan was developed in the context of the Interior Columbia Basin Ecosystem Management Project, the plan addresses many high-priority issues facing land managers throughout the Intermountain West. These issues pose management challenges that may be addressed with applied research both currently and in upcoming decades. Possessing a particular focus on semiarid ecosystems, the plan is a collection of research questions under five categories of research emphases: 1) restoration; 2) rangeland health; 3) aquatic-terrestrial connections; 4) development of monitoring and evaluation protocols; and 5) species and habitats at risk. The goal of the research strategy is to provide ideas for integrating emerging scientific understanding into future management in order to restore and maintain long-term ecosystem health and ecological integrity; provide consistent management direction over broad spatial and temporal scales; emphasize adaptive management over the long term; restore and maintain habitats for plant and animal species; and support economic and social needs of people, without compromising the above goals. Research questions are prioritized into three categories based on the immediacy of their need, feasibility of addressing the question rigorously under varying funding budgets, and magnitude of risk posed by not addressing the issue. The research strategy is intended to support and integrate with existing management efforts and strategies. As such, it melds observational studies with experimental manipulation, treating management actions as experiments whenever feasible. The research strategy focuses on disturbance processes and events that have been the primary drivers of change, to provide a predictive model for future changes. These drivers include fire, nonnative plants, herbivory, roads and associated human influences, and climate change. Whereas management in the western United States has striven to move from an inefficient species-based approach to a habitat-based approach, the plan focuses on ecosystem function and ecological processes as critical measures of habitat response. Because of the large amount and contiguity of public lands in the western United States, the region presents both a compelling opportunity to implement landscape-level science and a challenge to underst

Information and Technology Report↗

Influence of a nonionic surfactant (Triton X-100) on contaminant distribution between water and several soil solids

The influence of a nonionic surfactant (Triton X-100) on the contaminant distribution coefficients in solid–water mixtures was determined for a number of relatively nonpolar compounds (contaminants) on several natural solids. The studied compounds consisted of BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and p -xylene) and chlorinated pesticides (lindane, α-BHC, and heptachlor epoxide), which span several orders of magnitude in water solubility ( S w ); the solid samples comprised a bentonite, a peat, and two other soils, which cover a wide range of solid organic matter (SOM) content. The applied surfactant concentrations ( X ) ranged from below the (nominal) CMC to 2–3 times the CMC. For relatively water-soluble BTEX compounds, the distribution coefficients with surfactant ( K d *) all exceeded those without surfactant ( K d ); the K d */ K d ratios increased with increasing S w from p -xylene to benzene on each solid at a given X , with increasing X for each compound on a solid, and with decreasing solid SOM content for each compound over the range of X studied. For the less-soluble pesticides, the K d */ K d ratios exhibited a large increase with X for bentonite, a marginal change (increase or decrease) for a soil of 2.4% SOM, and a moderate-to-large decrease for two soils of 14.8% and 86.4% SOM. These unique observations were rationalized in terms of the properties of the compound, the amount of surfactant sorbed on the solid, the enhanced solubilization of the compound by surfactant in water, and the relative effects of the surfactant when adsorbed on minerals and when partitioned into SOM.

Journal of Colloid and Interface Science↗

Sources and transformations of nitrate from streams draining varying land uses: Evidence from dual isotope analysis

Knowledge of key sources and biogeochemical processes that affect the transport of nitrate (NO 3 - ) in streams can inform watershed management strategies for controlling downstream eutrophication. We applied dual isotope analysis of NO 3 - to determine the dominant sources and processes that affect NO 3 - concentrations in six stream/river watersheds of different land uses. Samples were collected monthly at a range of flow conditions for 15 mo during 2004-05 and analyzed for NO 3 - concentrations, ?? 15 N NO3 , and ?? 18 O NO3 . Samples from two forested watersheds indicated that NO 3 - derived from nitrification was dominant at baseflow. A watershed dominated by suburban land use had three ?? 18 O NO3 values greater than +25???, indicating a large direct contribution of atmospheric NO 3 - transported to the stream during some high flows. Two watersheds with large proportions of agricultural land use had many ?? 15 N NO3 values greater than +9???, suggesting an animal waste source consistent with regional dairy farming practices. These data showed a linear seasonal pattern with a ?? 18 O NO3 :?? 15 N NO3 of 1:2, consistent with seasonally varying denitrification that peaked in late summer to early fall with the warmest temperatures and lowest annual streamflow. The large range of ?? 15 N NO3 values (10???) indicates that NO 3 - supply was likely not limiting the rate of denitrification, consistent with ground water and/or in-stream denitrification. Mixing of two or more distinct sources may have affected the seasonal isotope patterns observed in these two agricultural streams. In a mixed land use watershed of large drainage area, none of the source and process patterns observed in the small streams were evident. These results emphasize that observations at watersheds of a few to a few hundred km 2 may be necessary to adequately quantify the relative roles of various NO 3 - transport and process patterns that contribute to streamflow in large basins. Copyright ?? 2009 by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America. All rights reserved.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

Experimental warming changes phenology and shortens growing season of the dominant invasive plant Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass)

Bromus tectorum (cheatgrass) has successfully invaded and established throughout the western United States. Bromus tectorum grows early in the season and this early growth allows B. tectorum to outcompete native species, which has led to dramatic shifts in ecosystem function and plant community composition after B. tectorum invades. If the phenology of native species is unable to track changing climate as effectively as B. tectorum ’s phenology then climate change may facilitate further invasion. To better understand how B. tectorum phenology will respond to future climate, we tracked the timing of B. tectorum germination, flowering, and senescence over a decade in three in situ climate manipulation experiments with treatments that increased temperatures (2°C and 4°C above ambient), altered precipitation regimes, or applied a combination of each. Linear mixed-effects models were used to analyze treatment effects on the timing of germination, flowering, senescence, and on the length of the vegetative growing season (time from germination to flowering) in each experiment. Altered precipitation treatments were only applied in early years of the study and neither precipitation treatments nor the treatments’ legacies significantly affected B. tectorum phenology. The timing of germination did not significantly vary between any warming treatments and their respective ambient plots. However, plots that were warmed had advances in the timing of B. tectorum flowering and senescence, as well as shorter vegetative growing seasons. The phenological advances caused by warming increased with increasing degrees of experimental warming. The greatest differences between warmed and ambient plots were seen in the length of the vegetative growing season, which was shortened by approximately 12 and 7 days in the +4°C and +2°C warming levels, respectively. The effects of experimental warming were small compared to the effects of interannual climate variation, suggesting that interactive controls and the timing of multiple climatic factors are important in determining B. tectorum phenology. Taken together, these results help elucidate how B. tectorum phenology may respond to future climate, increasing our predictive capacity for estimating when to time B. tectorum control efforts and how to more effectively manage this exotic annual grass.

Utah↗

Effects of climate change and urban development on the distribution and conservation of vegetation in a Mediterranean type ecosystem

Climate and land-use changes are projected to threaten biodiversity over this century. However, few studies have considered the spatial and temporal overlap of these threats to evaluate how ongoing land-use change could affect species ranges projected to shift outside conservation areas. We evaluated climate change and urban development effects on vegetation distribution in the Southwest ecoregion, California Floristic Province, USA. We also evaluated how well a conservation network protects suitable habitat for rare plant species under these change projections and identified primary sources of uncertainty. We used consensus-based maps from three species distribution models (SDMs) to project current and future suitable habitat for 19 species representing different functional types (defined by fire-response – obligate seeders, resprouting shrubs – and life forms – herbs, subshrubs), and range sizes (large/common, small/rare). We used one spatially explicit urban growth projection; two climate models, emission scenarios, and probability thresholds applied to SDMs; and high-resolution (90 m) environmental data. We projected that suitable habitat could disappear for 4 species and decrease for 15 by 2080. Averaged centroids of suitable habitat (all species) were projected to shift tens (up to hundreds) of kilometers. Herbs showed a small-projected response to climate change, while obligate seeders could suffer the greatest losses. Several rare species could lose suitable habitat inside conservation areas while increasing area outside. We concluded that (i) climate change is more important than urban development for vegetation habitat loss in this ecoregion through 2080 due to diminishing amounts of undeveloped private land in this region; (ii) the existing conservation plan, while extensive, may be inadequate to protect plant diversity under projected patterns of climate change and urban development, (iii) regional assessments of the dynamics of the drivers of biodiversity change based on high-resolution environmental data and consensus predictive mapping, such as this study, are necessary to identify the species expected to be the most vulnerable and to meaningfully inform regional-scale conservation.

California↗

Short-term response of Holcus lanatus L. (Common Velvetgrass) to chemical and manual control at Yosemite National Park, USA

One of the highest priority invasive species at both Yosemite and Sequoia and Kings Canyon national parks is Holcus lanatus L. (common velvetgrass), a perennial bunchgrass that invades mid-elevation montane meadows. Despite velvetgrass being a high priority species, there is little information available on control techniques. The goal of this project was to evaluate the short-term response of a single application of common chemical and manual velvetgrass control techniques. The study was conducted at three montane sites in Yosemite National Park. Glyphosate spot-spray treatments were applied at 0.5, 1.0, 1.5, and 2.0% concentrations, and compared with hand pulling to evaluate effects on cover of common velvetgrass, cover of other plant species, and community species richness. Posttreatment year 1 cover of common velvetgrass was 12.1% ± 1.6 in control plots, 6.3% ± 1.5 averaged over the four chemical treatments (all chemical treatments performed similarly), and 13.6% ± 1.7 for handpulled plots. This represents an approximately 50% reduction in common velvetgrass cover in chemically- treated plots recoded posttreatment year 1 and no statistically significant reduction in hand pulled plots compared with controls. However, there was no treatment effect in posttreatment year 2, and all herbicide application rates performed similarly. In addition, there were no significant treatment effects on nontarget species or species richness. These results suggest that for this level of infestation and habitat type, (1) one year of hand pulling is not an effective control method and (2) glyphosate provides some level of control in the short-term without impact to nontarget plant species, but the effect is temporary as a single year of glyphosate treatment is ineffective over a two-year period.

California↗

Natural chlorate in the environment: Application of a new IC-ESI/MS/MS method with a Cl18O3- internal standard

A new ion chromatography electrospray tandem mass spectrometry (IC-ESI/MS/MS) method has been developed for quantification and confirmation of chlorate (ClO 3 − ) in environmental samples. The method involves the electro-chemical generation of isotopically labeled chlorate internal standard (Cl 18 O 3 − ) using 18 O water (H 2 18 O). The standard was added to all samples prior to analysis thereby minimizing the matrix effects that are associated with common ions without the need for expensive sample pretreatments. The method detection limit (MDL) for ClO 3 − was 2 ng L −1 for a 1 mL volume sample injection. The proposed method was successfully applied to analyze ClO 3 − in difficult environmental samples including soil and plant leachates. The IC-ESI/MS/MS method described here was also compared to established EPA method 317.0 for ClO 3 − analysis. Samples collected from a variety of environments previously shown to contain natural perchlorate (ClO 4 − ) occurrence were analyzed using the proposed method and ClO 3 − was found to co-occur with ClO 4 − at concentrations ranging from <2 ng L −1 in precipitation from Texas and Puerto Rico to >500 mg kg −1 in caliche salt deposits from the Atacama Desert in Chile. Relatively low concentrations of ClO 3 − in some natural groundwater samples (<0.1 μg L −1 ) analyzed in this work may indicate lower stability when compared to ClO 4 − in the subsurface. The high concentrations of ClO 3 − in caliches and soils (3−6 orders of magnitude greater) as compared to precipitation samples indicate that ClO 3 − , like ClO 4 − , may be atmospherically produced and deposited, then concentrated in dry soils, and is possibly a minor component in the biogeochemical cycle of chlorine.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Assessing the potential for re-emission of mercury deposited in precipitation from arid soils using a stable isotope

A solution containing 198 Hg in the form of HgCl 2 was added to a 4 m 2 area of desert soils in Nevada, and soil Hg fluxes were measured using three dynamic flux chambers. There was an immediate release of 198 Hg after it was applied, and then emissions decreased exponentially. Within the first 6 h after the isotope was added to the soil, ∼12 ng m - 2 of 198 Hg was emitted to the atmosphere, followed by a relatively steady flux of the isotope at 0.2 ± 0.2 ng m - 2 h - 1 for the remainder of the experiment (62 days). Over this time, ∼200 ng m - 2 or 2% of the 198 Hg isotope was emitted from the soil, and we estimate that ∼6% of the isotope would be re-emitted in a year's time. During the experiment, dry deposition of elemental Hg from the atmosphere was measured with an average deposition rate of 0.2 ± 0.1 ng m - 2 h - 1 . Emission of ambient Hg from the soil was observed after soil wetting with the isotope solution and after a storm event. However, the added moisture from the storm event did not affect 198 Hg flux. Results suggest that in this desert environment, where there is limited precipitation, Hg deposited by wet processes is not readily re-emitted and that dry deposition of elemental Hg may be an important process.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Dispersion and stratification dynamics in the upper Sacramento River deep water ship channel

Hydrodynamics control the movement of water and material within and among habitats, where time-scales of mixing can exert bottom-up regulatory effects on aquatic ecosystems through their influence on primary production. The San Francisco Estuary (estuary) is a low-productivity ecosystem, which is in part responsible for constraining higher trophic levels, including fishes. Many research and habitat-restoration efforts trying to increase primary production have been conducted, including, as described here, a whole-ecosystem nutrient addition experiment where calcium nitrate was applied in the Sacramento River Deep Water Ship Channel (DWSC) to see if phytoplankton production could be increased and exported out of the DWSC. As an integral part of this experiment, we investigated the physical mechanisms that control mixing, and how these mechanisms affect the strength and duration of thermal stratification, which we revealed as critical for controlling phytoplankton dynamics in the relatively turbid upper DWSC. Analysis of a suite of mixing mechanisms and time-scales show that both tidal currents and wind control mixing rates and stratification dynamics in the DWSC. Longitudinal and vertical dispersion increased during periods of high wind, during which wind speed influenced dispersion more than tidal currents. Thermal stratification developed most days, which slowed vertical mixing but was rapidly broken down by wind-induced mixing. Stratification rarely persisted for longer than 24 hours, limiting phytoplankton production in the study area. The interaction between physical mechanisms that control mixing rates, mediate stratification dynamics, and ultimately limit primary production in the DWSC may be useful in informing habitat restoration elsewhere in the Delta and in other turbid aquatic environments.

California↗

Characterization of the Sonoran desert as a radiometric calibration target for Earth observing sensors

To provide highly accurate quantitative measurements of the Earth's surface, a comprehensive calibration and validation of the satellite sensors is required. The NASA Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Characterization Support Team, in collaboration with United States Geological Survey, Earth Resources Observation and Science Center, has previously demonstrated the use of African desert sites to monitor the long-term calibration stability of Terra MODIS and Landsat 7 (L7) Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+). The current study focuses on evaluating the suitability of the Sonoran Desert test site for post-launch long-term radiometric calibration as well as cross-calibration purposes. Due to the lack of historical and on-going in situ ground measurements, the Sonoran Desert is not usually used for absolute calibration. An in-depth evaluation (spatial, temporal, and spectral stability) of this site using well calibrated L7 ETM+ measurements and local climatology data has been performed. The Sonoran Desert site produced spatial variability of about 3 to 5% in the reflective solar regions, and the temporal variations of the site after correction for view-geometry impacts were generally around 3%. The results demonstrate that, barring the impacts due to occasional precipitation, the Sonoran Desert site can be effectively used for cross-calibration and long-term stability monitoring of satellite sensors, thus, providing a good test site in the western hemisphere.

Sonoran Desert↗

The long shadow of a major disaster: Modeled dynamic impacts of the hypothetical HayWired earthquake on California’s economy

We develop and apply a dynamic economic simulation model to analyze the multi-regional impacts of, and mechanisms of recovery from, a major disaster, the HayWired scenario — a hypothetical Magnitude 7.0 earthquake affecting California’s San Francisco Bay Area. The model integrates loss pathways: capital stock damage, labor supply shocks due to short-term population displacement and longer-run out-migration from damaged areas, and the exacerbating effects of damage to transportation infrastructure capital, as well as various aspects of static and dynamic economic resilience. With input substitution-based static inherent resilience and dynamic resilience in the form of optimal intertemporal and spatial investment allocation, gross output losses range from 0.5 percent to 6 percent across regions, and welfare losses are 0.4 percent statewide but can be ten times as large in hardest-hit areas. Large-scale reconstruction investment is supported by substantial interregional transfers of resources through intra-state trade. Increased output via firms engaging in the key adaptive resilience tactic of production recapture can alleviate a substantial fraction of losses—but only if upstream and downstream barriers to recovery can be lowered quickly.

California↗

Influence of pore pressure change on coseismic volumetric strain

Coseismic strain is fundamentally important for understanding crustal response to changes of stress after earthquakes. The elastic dislocation model has been widely applied to interpreting observed shear deformation caused by earthquakes. The application of the same theory to interpreting volumetric strain, however, has met with difficulty, especially in the far field of earthquakes. Predicted volumetric strain with dislocation model often differs substantially, and sometimes of opposite signs, from observed coseismic volumetric strains. The disagreement suggests that some processes unaccounted for by the dislocation model may occur during earthquakes. Several hypotheses have been suggested, but none have been tested quantitatively. In this paper we first examine published data to highlight the difference between the measured and calculated static coseismic volumetric strains; we then use these data to provide quantitative test of the model that the disagreement may be explained by the change of pore pressure in the shallow crust. The test allows us to conclude that coseismic change of pore pressure may be an important mechanism for coseismic crustal strain and, in the far field, may even be the dominant mechanism. Thus in the interpretation of observed coseismic crustal strain, one needs to account not only for the elastic strain due to fault rupture but also for the strain due to coseismic change of pore pressure.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗

Occurrence of triclocarban and triclosan in an agro-ecosystem following application of biosolids

Triclocarban (TCC) and triclosan (TCS), two of the most commonly used antimicrobial compounds, can be introduced into ecosystems by applying wastewater treatment plant biosolids to agricultural fields. Concentrations of TCC and TCS were measured in different trophic levels within a terrestrial food web encompassing land-applied biosolids, soil, earthworms ( Lumbricus ), deer mice ( Peromyscus maniculatus ), and eggs of European starlings ( Sturnus vulgaris ) and American kestrels ( Falco sparverius ) at an experimental site amended with biosolids for the previous 7 years. The samples from this site were compared to the same types of samples from a reference (biosolids-free) agricultural site. Inter-site comparisons showed that concentrations of both antimicrobials were higher on the experimental site in the soil, earthworms, mice (livers), and European starling eggs, but not American kestrel eggs, compared to the control site. Inter-species comparisons on the experimental site indicated significantly higher TCC concentrations in mice (TCC: 12.6–33.3 ng/g) and in starling eggs (TCC: 15.4–31.4 ng/g) than in kestrel eggs (TCC: 3.6 ng/g). Nesting success of kestrels only was significantly lower on the experimental site compared to the reference site due to nest abandonment. This study demonstrates that biosolids-derived TCC and TCS are present throughout the terrestrial food web, including secondary (e.g., starlings) and tertiary (i.e., kestrels) consumers, after repeated, long-term biosolids application.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

Applying portfolio theory to benefit endangered amphibians in coastal wetlands threatened by climate change, high uncertainty, and significant investment risk

The challenge of selecting strategies to adapt to climate change is complicated by the presence of irreducible uncertainties regarding future conditions. Decisions regarding long-term investments in conservation actions contain significant risk of failure due to these inherent uncertainties. To address this challenge, decision makers need an arsenal of sophisticated but practical tools to help guide spatial conservation strategies. Theory asserts that managing risks can be achieved by diversifying an investment portfolio to include assets – such as stocks and bonds – that respond inversely to one another under a given set of conditions. We demonstrate an approach for formalizing the diversification of conservation assets (land parcels) and actions (restoration, species reintroductions) by using correlation structure to quantify the degree of risk for any proposed management investment. We illustrate a framework for identifying future habitat refugia by integrating species distribution modeling, scenarios of climate change and sea level rise, and impacts to critical habitat. Using the plains coqui ( Eleutherodactylus juanariveroi ), an endangered amphibian known from only three small wetland populations on Puerto Rico’s coastal plains, we evaluate the distribution of potential refugia under two model parameterizations and four future sea-level rise scenarios. We then apply portfolio theory using two distinct objective functions and eight budget levels to inform investment strategies for mitigating risk and increasing species persistence probability. Models project scenario-specific declines in coastal freshwater wetlands from 2% to nearly 30% and concurrent expansions of transitional marsh and estuarine open water. Conditional on the scenario, island-wide species distribution is predicted to contract by 25% to 90%. Optimal portfolios under the first objective function – benefit maximization – emphasizes translocating frogs to existing protected areas rather than investing in the protection of new habitat. Alternatively, optimal strategies using the second objective function – a risk-benefit tradeoff framework – include significant investment to protect parcels for the purpose of reintroduction or establishing new populations. These findings suggest that leveraging existing protected areas for species persistence, while less costly, may contain excessive risk and could result in diminished conservation benefits. Although our modeling includes numerous assumptions and simplifications, we believe this framework provides useful inference for exploring resource dynamics and developing robust adaptation strategies using an approach that is generalizable to other conservation problems which are spatial or portfolio in nature and subject to unresolvable uncertainty.

Puerto Rico↗

Managing dams for energy and fish tradeoffs: What does a win-win solution take?

Management activities to restore endangered fish species, such as dam removals, fishway installations, and periodic turbine shutdowns, usually decrease hydropower generation capacities at dams. Quantitative analysis of the tradeoffs between energy production and fish population recovery related to dam decision-making is still lacking. In this study, an integrated hydropower generation and age-structured fish population model was developed using a system dynamics modeling method to assess basin-scale energy-fish tradeoffs under eight dam management scenarios. This model ran across 150 years on a daily time step, applied to five hydroelectric dams located in the main stem of the Penobscot River, Maine. We used alewife ( Alosa pseudoharengus ) to be representative of the local diadromous fish populations to link projected hydropower production with theoretical influences on migratory fish populations on the model river system. Our results show that while the five dams can produce around 427 GWh/year of energy, without fishway installations they would contribute to a 90% reduction in the alewife spawner abundance. The effectiveness of fishway installations is largely influenced by the size of reopened habitat areas and the actual passage rate of the fishways. Homing to natal habitat has an insignificant effect on the growth of the simulated spawner abundance. Operating turbine shutdowns during alewives' peak downstream migration periods, in addition to other dam management strategies, can effectively increase the spawner abundance by 480–550% while also preserving 65% of the hydropower generation capacity. These data demonstrate that in a river system where active hydropower dams operate, a combination of dam management strategies at the basin scale can best balance the tradeoff between energy production and the potential for migratory fish population recovery.

Maine↗