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USGS2022

Toppling of a Trona Pinnacles Spire following the M5.5 RidgecrestaAftershock of June 2020

The 2019 M w 7.1 Ridgecrest California earthquake rupture passed within 4 km of the Trona Pinnacles, a large group of tufa rock pillars. Reconnaissance following the Ridgecrest mainshock documented fresh damage to several of the Pinnacles. Repeated aerial photogrammetric surveys also documented damage during subsequent aftershocks. Here, we describe the photogrammetric data with emphasis on a specific rock spire that toppled during an M w 5.5 aftershock. We calculate the volumes of the intact spire and of its subsequent debris. To explore the utility of the pinnacles as fragile geologic features for constraining past earthquake shaking intensity, we calculate the quasi static, horizontal acceleration required to break the spire at its base. We also examine the response of this feature to observed shaking using a dynamic model of the spire. In this case, we find that the quasi‐static estimate provides a conservative maximum constraint on fragility. The dynamic model of the spire suggests that shaking during the M w 7.1 mainshock likely generated tensile stresses in excess of the spire’s bulk strength, thereby making it vulnerable to collapse in subsequent aftershocks.

California↗

USGS2010

Three-dimensional long-period groundmotion simulations in the upper Mississippi embayment

We employed a 3D velocity model and 3D wave propagation code to simulate long-period ground motions in the upper Mississippi embayment. This region is at risk from large earthquakes in the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) and observational data are sparse, making simulation a valuable tool for predicting the effects of large events. We undertook these simulations to estimate the magnitude of shaking likely to occur and to investigate the influence of the 3D embayment structure and finite-fault mechanics on ground motions. There exist three primary fault zones in the NMSZ, each of which was likely associated with one of the main shocks of the 1811-12 earthquake triplet. For this study, three simulations have been conducted on each major segment, exploring the impact of different epicentral locations and rupture directions on ground motions. The full wave field up to a frequency of 0.5 Hz is computed on a 200 ?? 200 ?? 50-km 3 volume using a staggered-grid finite-difference code. Peak horizontal velocity and bracketed durations were calculated at the free surface. The NMSZ simulations indicate that for the considered bandwidth, finite-fault mechanics such as fault proximity, directivity effect, and slip distribution exert the most control on ground motions. The 3D geologic structure of the upper Mississippi embayment also influences ground motion with indications that amplification is induced by the sharp velocity contrast at the basin edge.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2012

W phase source inversion for moderate to large earthquakes (1990-2010)

Rapid characterization of the earthquake source and of its effects is a growing field of interest. Until recently, it still took several hours to determine the first-order attributes of a great earthquake (e.g. M w ≥ 7.5), even in a well-instrumented region. The main limiting factors were data saturation, the interference of different phases and the time duration and spatial extent of the source rupture. To accelerate centroid moment tensor (CMT) determinations, we have developed a source inversion algorithm based on modelling of the W phase, a very long period phase (100–1000 s) arriving at the same time as the P wave. The purpose of this work is to finely tune and validate the algorithm for large-to-moderate-sized earthquakes using three components of W phase ground motion at teleseismic distances. To that end, the point source parameters of all M w ≥ 6.5 earthquakes that occurred between 1990 and 2010 (815 events) are determined using Federation of Digital Seismograph Networks, Global Seismographic Network broad-band stations and STS1 global virtual networks of the Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology Data Management Center. For each event, a preliminary magnitude obtained from W phase amplitudes is used to estimate the initial moment rate function half duration and to define the corner frequencies of the passband filter that will be applied to the waveforms. Starting from these initial parameters, the seismic moment tensor is calculated using a preliminary location as a first approximation of the centroid. A full CMT inversion is then conducted for centroid timing and location determination. Comparisons with Harvard and Global CMT solutions highlight the robustness of W phase CMT solutions at teleseismic distances. The differences in M w rarely exceed 0.2 and the source mechanisms are very similar to one another. Difficulties arise when a target earthquake is shortly (e.g. within 10 hr) preceded by another large earthquake, which disturbs the waveforms of the target event. To deal with such difficult situations, we remove the perturbation caused by earlier disturbing events by subtracting the corresponding synthetics from the data. The CMT parameters for the disturbed event can then be retrieved using the residual seismograms. We also explore the feasibility of obtaining source parameters of smaller earthquakes in the range 6.0 ≤M w < 6.5. Results suggest that the W phase inversion can be implemented reliably for the majority of earthquakes of M w = 6 or larger.

Geophysical Journal International↗

USGS2015

Sequence stratigraphic framework of upper pliocene to holocene sediments of the Los Angeles Basin, California: Implications for aquifer architecture

Executive Summary Groundwater provides more than one-third of the municipal water supply for the coastal Los Angeles Basin and defining the aquifer architecture is a high priority for ground-water managers. Sequence stratigraphy, the state-of-the-art method for delineating reservoir geometry and continuity in the petroleum industry, is now being incorporated into ground water resource assessments and environmental investigations. By evaluating subsurface data using sequence stratigraphy, the geometry and distribution of aquifer and aquitard sediments are linked to the original depositional processes that formed the sediments. Skyline Ridge, Inc., the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with Los Angeles County Department of Public Works (LACDPW) and the Water Replenishment District of Southern California (WRDSC) completed an investigation of the Wilmington – Long Beach area by integrating data from new exploratory research boreholes, marine reflection seismic, vintage land reflection seismic, and high-resolution gravity measurements. Sequence stratigraphy is shown to define pathways for saltwater intrusion into freshwater coastal aquifers by integrating preexisting data with (1) the new borehole observations and (2) structural and physical properties data derived from the geophysical measurements. By constructing a series of seismic reflection and well log cross sections (presented as sheets), this investigation further defines and delineates ten sequences of Late Pliocene to Holocene age in the Wilmington – Long Beach area of the Los Angeles Basin. These sequences were first described by Ponti and others (2007), and the implications for sea water intrusion was discussed by Edwards and others (2009a). In addition, this investigation presents regional seismic facies – environment of deposition maps for the five youngest sequences: 1) the Dominquez Sequence; 2) the Mesa Sequence; 3) the Pacific Sequence; the Harbor Sequence; and 4) the Bent Spring Sequence. The stratigraphic framework established in the Wilmington – Long Beach area is extended into the Central Basin of the greater Los Angeles area by utilizing 1980s and older vintage petroleum exploration land seismic reflection data. Tying this data to the available groundwater monitoring well network in the Central and West Coast Basins demonstrate aquifer correlation problems, and may provide insights into establishing a more robust groundwater model for the greater Los Angeles Basin area.

Book↗

USGS2014

Statistical assessment on a combined analysis of GRYN-ROMN-UCBN upland vegetation vital signs

As of 2013, Rocky Mountain and Upper Columbia Basin Inventory and Monitoring Networks have multiple years of vegetation data and Greater Yellowstone Network has three years of vegetation data and monitoring is ongoing in all three networks. Our primary objective is to assess whether a combined analysis of these data aimed at exploring correlations with climate and weather data is feasible. We summarize the core survey design elements across protocols and point out the major statistical challenges for a combined analysis at present. The dissimilarity in response designs between ROMN and UCBN-GRYN network protocols presents a statistical challenge that has not been resolved yet. However, the UCBN and GRYN data are compatible as they implement a similar response design; therefore, a combined analysis is feasible and will be pursued in future. When data collected by different networks are combined, the survey design describing the merged dataset is (likely) a complex survey design. A complex survey design is the result of combining datasets from different sampling designs. A complex survey design is characterized by unequal probability sampling, varying stratification, and clustering (see Lohr 2010 Chapter 7 for general overview). Statistical analysis of complex survey data requires modifications to standard methods, one of which is to include survey design weights within a statistical model. We focus on this issue for a combined analysis of upland vegetation from these networks, leaving other topics for future research. We conduct a simulation study on the possible effects of equal versus unequal probability selection of points on parameter estimates of temporal trend using available packages within the R statistical computing package. We find that, as written, using lmer or lm for trend detection in a continuous response and clm and clmm for visually estimated cover classes with “raw” GRTS design weights specified for the weight argument leads to substantially different results and/or computational instability. However, when only fixed effects are of interest, the survey package (svyglm and svyolr) may be suitable for a model-assisted analysis for trend. We provide possible directions for future research into combined analysis for ordinal and continuous vital sign indictors.

Natural Resource Report↗

USGS2015

Evolution of Mars’ Northern Polar Seasonal CO 2 deposits: variations in surface brightness and bulk density

Small scale variations of seasonal ice are explored at different geomorphic units on the Northern Polar Seasonal Cap (NPSC). We use seasonal rock shadow measurements, combined with visible and thermal observations, to calculate density over time. The coupling of volume density and albedo allows us to determine the microphysical state of the seasonal CO 2 ice. We find two distinct endmembers across the NPSC: 1) Snow deposits may anneal to form an overlying slab layer that fractures. These low density deposits maintain relatively constant densities over springtime. 2) Porous slab deposits likely anneal rapidly in early spring and fracture in late spring. These high density deposits dramatically increase in density over time. The endmembers appear to be correlated with latitude.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2026

Bird migration and energetics simulations incorporating oil spill effects

Oil spills are well-known for causing acute mortality of birds, but sublethal and delayed impacts are less understood. Focusing on the mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ), we used simulation modeling to explore how sublethal oiling may affect avian survival and breeding ground body condition. We used empirically informed migration and energetics simulations to model hypothetical spills occurring in northern Arkansas, USA occurring in either January to simulate thermoregulatory stress or March to simulate pre-migration effects. We modeled trace and lightly oiled female mallards (≤5% or 6 to 20% of feather area oiled, respectively), incorporating oiling-induced energetic effects on thermoregulation, flight, and energetic gain. We found that mortality was generally higher for simulated spills occurring in January versus March. In the simulations, mallards lost body mass due to oiling, but surviving individuals could partially recover body mass before arriving at the breeding grounds. Including oiling-induced energetic gain effects in simulations increased mortality as well as increased overall variability of simulation results. This modeling effort identified an important gap in knowledge regarding oiled bird energetics, specifically a need to better quantify oiling-induced energetic gain changes. Although the model is currently limited to a specific species and geographic area, it serves as a proof-of-concept for future research and modeling efforts aimed at understanding more broadly the impacts of oil spills on avian populations.

Prairie Pothole region↗

USGS2009

Heritage strain and diet of wild young of year and yearling lake trout in the main basin of Lake Huron

Restoration of lake trout Salvelinus namaycush stocks in Lake Huron is a fish community objective developed to promote sustainable fish communities in the lake. Between 1985 and 2004, 12.65 million lake trout were stocked into Lake Huron representing eight different genetic strains. Collections of bona fide wild fish in USGS surveys have increased in recent years and this study examined the ancestry and diet of fish collected between 2004 and 2006 to explore the ecological role they occupy in Lake Huron. Analysis of microsatellite DNA revealed that both pure strain and inter-strain hybrids were observed, and the majority of fish were classified as Seneca Lake strain or Seneca Lake hybrids. Diets of 50 wild age-0 lake trout were examined. Mysis, chironomids, and zooplankton were common prey items of wild age-0 lake trout. These results indicate that stocked fish are successfully reproducing in Lake Huron indicating a level of restoration success. However, continued changes to the benthic macroinvertebrate community, particularly declines of Mysis, may limit growth and survival of wild fish and hinder restoration efforts.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2006

Wildfires threaten mercury stocks in northern soils

With climate change rapidly affecting northern forests and wetlands, mercury reserves once protected in cold, wet soils are being exposed to burning, likely triggering large releases of mercury to the atmosphere. We quantify organic soil mercury stocks and burn areas across western, boreal Canada for use in fire emission models that explore controls of burn area, consumption severity, and fuel loading on atmospheric mercury emissions. Though renowned as hotspots for the accumulation of mercury and its transformation to the toxic methylmercury, boreal wetlands might soon transition to hotspots for atmospheric mercury emissions. Estimates of circumboreal mercury emissions from this study are 15-fold greater than estimates that do not account for mercury stored in peat soils. Ongoing and projected increases in boreal wildfire activity due to climate change will increase atmospheric mercury emissions, contributing to the anthropogenic alteration of the global mercury cycle and exacerbating mercury toxicities for northern food chains. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2019

Remote sensing of dryland ecosystem structure and function: Progress, challenges, and opportunities

Drylands make up roughly 40% of the Earth's land surface, and billions of people depend on services provided by these critically important ecosystems. Despite their relatively sparse vegetation, dryland ecosystems are structurally and functionally diverse, and emerging evidence suggests that these ecosystems play a dominant role in the trend and variability of the terrestrial carbon sink. More, drylands are highly sensitive to climate and are likely to have large, non-linear responses to hydroclimatic change. Monitoring the spatiotemporal dynamics of dryland ecosystem structure (e.g., leaf area index) and function (e.g., primary production and evapotranspiration) is therefore a high research priority. Yet, dryland remote sensing is defined by unique challenges not typically encountered in mesic or humid regions. Major challenges include low vegetation signal-to-noise ratios, high soil background reflectance, presence of photosynthetic soils (i.e., biological soil crusts), high spatial heterogeneity from plot to regional scales, and irregular growing seasons due to unpredictable seasonal rainfall and frequent periods of drought. Additionally, there is a relative paucity of continuous, long-term measurements in drylands, which impedes robust calibration and evaluation of remotely-sensed dryland data products. Due to these issues, remote sensing techniques developed in other ecosystems or for global application often result in inaccurate, poorly constrained estimates of dryland ecosystem structural and functional dynamics. Here, we review past achievements and current progress in remote sensing of dryland ecosystems, including a detailed discussion of the major challenges associated with remote sensing of key dryland structural and functional dynamics. We then identify strategies aimed at leveraging new and emerging opportunities in remote sensing to overcome previous challenges and more accurately contextualize drylands within the broader Earth system. Specifically, we recommend: 1) Exploring novel combinations of sensors and techniques (e.g., solar-induced fluorescence, thermal, microwave, hyperspectral, and LiDAR) across a range of spatiotemporal scales to gain new insights into dryland structural and functional dynamics; 2) utilizing near-continuous observations from new-and-improved geostationary satellites to capture the rapid responses of dryland ecosystems to diurnal variation in water stress; 3) expanding ground observational networks to better represent the heterogeneity of dryland systems and enable robust calibration and evaluation; 4) developing algorithms that are specifically tuned to dryland ecosystems by utilizing expanded ground observational network data; and 5) coupling remote sensing observations with process-based models using data assimilation to improve mechanistic understanding of dryland ecosystem dynamics and to better constrain ecological forecasts and long-term projections.

Remote Sensing of Environment↗

USGS2011

Effects of flow dynamics on the aquatic-terrestrial transition zone (ATTZ) of lower Missouri river sandbars with implications for selected biota

Sandbars are an important aquatic terrestrial transition zone (ATTZ) in the active channel of rivers that provide a variety of habitat conditions for riverine biota. Channelization and flow regulation in many large rivers have diminished sandbar habitats and their rehabilitation is a priority. We developed sandbar-specific models of discharge-area relationships to determine how changes in flow regime affect the area of different habitat types within the submerged sandbar ATTZ (depth) and exposed sandbar ATTZ (elevation) for a representative sample of Lower Missouri River sandbars. We defined six different structural habitat types within the sandbar ATTZ based on depth or exposed elevation ranges that are important to different biota during at least part of their annual cycle for either survival or reproduction. Scenarios included the modelled natural flow regime, current managed flow regime and two environmental flow options, all modelled within the contemporary river active channel. Thirteen point and wing-dike sandbars were evaluated under four different flow scenarios to explore the effects of flow regime on seasonal habitat availability for foraging of migratory shorebirds and wading birds, nesting of softshell turtles and nursery of riverine fishes. Managed flows provided more foraging habitat for shorebirds and wading birds and more nursery habitat for riverine fishes within the channelized reach sandbar ATTZ than the natural flow regime or modelled environmental flows. Reduced summer flows occurring under natural and environmental flow alternatives increased exposed sandbar nesting habitat for softshell turtle hatchling emergence. Results reveal how management of channelized and flow regulated large rivers could benefit from a modelling framework that couples hydrologic and geomorphic characteristics to predict habitat conditions for a variety of biota.

River Research and Applications↗

USGS2017

Volcano Geodesy: Recent developments and future challenges

Ascent of magma through Earth's crust is normally associated with, among other effects, ground deformation and gravity changes. Geodesy is thus a valuable tool for monitoring and hazards assessment during volcanic unrest, and it provides valuable data for exploring the geometry and volume of magma plumbing systems. Recent decades have seen an explosion in the quality and quantity of volcano geodetic data. New datasets (some made possible by regional and global scientific initiatives), as well as new analysis methods and modeling practices, have resulted in important changes to our understanding of the geodetic characteristics of active volcanism and magmatic processes, from the scale of individual eruptive vents to global compilations of volcano deformation. Here, we describe some of the recent developments in volcano geodesy, both in terms of data and interpretive tools, and discuss the role of international initiatives in meeting future challenges for the field.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2017

Spatial demographic models to inform conservation planning of golden eagles in renewable energy landscapes

Spatial demographic models can help guide monitoring and management activities targeting at-risk species, even in cases where baseline data are lacking. Here, we provide an example of how site-specific changes in land use and anthropogenic stressors can be incorporated into a spatial demographic model to investigate effects on population dynamics of Golden Eagles ( Aquila chrysaetos ). Our study focused on a population of Golden Eagles exposed to risks associated with rapid increases in renewable energy development in southern California, U.S.A. We developed a spatially explicit, individual-based simulation model that integrated empirical data on demography of Golden Eagles with spatial data on the arrangement of nesting habitats, prey resources, and planned renewable energy development sites. Our model permitted simulated eagles of different stage-classes to disperse, establish home ranges, acquire prey resources, prospect for breeding sites, and reproduce. The distribution of nesting habitats, prey resources, and threats within each individual's home range influenced movement, reproduction, and survival. We used our model to explore potential effects of alternative disturbance scenarios, and proposed conservation strategies, on the future distribution and abundance of Golden Eagles in the study region. Results from our simulations suggest that probable increases in mortality associated with renewable energy infrastructure (e.g., collisions with wind turbines and vehicles, electrocution on power poles) could have negative consequences for population trajectories, but that site-specific conservation actions could reduce the magnitude of negative effects. Our study demonstrates the use of a flexible and expandable modeling framework to incorporate spatially dependent processes when determining relative effects of proposed management options to Golden Eagles and their habitats.

California↗

USGS2014

The geochemistry of deep-sea coral skeletons: a review of vital effects and applications for palaeoceanography

Deep-sea corals were discovered over a century ago, but it is only over recent years that focused efforts have been made to explore the history of the oceans using the geochemistry of their skeletal remains. They offer a promising archive of past oceanic environments given their global distribution, layered growth patterns, longevity and preservation as well as our ability to date them using radiometric techniques. This paper provides an overview of the current state-of-the-art in terms of geochemical approaches to using deep-sea coral skeletons to explore the history of the ocean. Deep-sea coral skeletons have a wide array of morphologies (e.g. solitary cup corals, branching colonial corals) and materials (calcite, aragonite and proteins). As such their biomineralization strategies are diverse, leading to complex geochemistry within coral skeletons. Notwithstanding these complications, progress has been made on developing methods for reconstructing the oceanographic environment in the past using trace elements and isotopic methods. Promising approaches within certain coral groups include clumped isotopes and Mg/Li for temperature reconstructions, boron isotopes and radiocarbon for carbon cycling, εNd, and radiocarbon for circulation studies and δ 15 N, P/Ca and Ba/Ca for nutrient tracer studies. Likewise there is now a range of techniques for dating deep-sea corals skeletons (e.g. U-series, radiocarbon), and determining their growth rates (e.g. radiocarbon and 210 Pb). Dating studies on historic coral populations in the Atlantic, Southern Ocean and Pacific point to climate and environmental changes being dominant controls on coral populations over millennial and orbital timescales. This paper provides a review of a range of successes and promising approaches. It also highlights areas in which further research would likely provide new insights into biomineralization, palaeoceanography and distribution of past coral populations.

Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Ocea↗

USGS2020

Fundamental hydraulics of cross sections in natural rivers: Preliminary analysis of a large data set of acoustic doppler flow measurements

We have assembled a comprehensive and publicly accessible U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow measurement data set, called HYDRoSWOT, from a USGS National Water Information System archive of acoustic Doppler current profiler river discharge measurements collected from a wide range of rivers throughout the United States. The data set provides a wealth of information on the range of hydraulic characteristics of river cross sections in the United States. Preliminary exploration of the data set, filtered for quality control, indicates that rivers tend toward consistent and predictable forms as discharge increases. The ratio of maximum-to-mean depth is highly predictable and is remarkably consistent across all river sizes and discharges. Distributions of hydraulic characteristics provide a large-scale perspective on the general hydraulic characteristics of rivers. The data set affords the opportunity to analyze hydraulic relations for individual rivers as a function of stage, geomorphic setting, and energy environments and, combined with additional information contained in this data set, might yield predictive relations that could help constrain and parameterize river hydraulic models.

Water Resource Research↗

USGS2003

Identifying relationships between baseflow geochemistry and land use with synoptic sampling and R-mode factor analysis

The relationship between land use and stream chemistry is often explored through synoptic sampling of rivers at baseflow conditions. However, baseflow chemistry is likely to vary temporally and spatially with land use. The purpose of our study is to examine the usefulness of the synoptic sampling approach for identifying the relationship between complex land use configurations and stream water quality. This study compares biogeochemical data from three synoptic sampling events representing the temporal variability of baseflow chemistry and land use using R - mode factor analysis . Separate R - mode factor analyses of the data from individual sampling events yielded only two consistent factors. Agricultural activity was associated with elevated levels of Ca 2+ , Mg 2+ , alkalinity, and frequently K + , SO 2- 4 , and NO - 3 . Urban areas were associated with higher concentrations of Na + , K + , and Cl - . Other retained factors were not consistent among sampling events, and some factors were difficult to interpret in the context of biogeochemical sources and processes. When all data were combined, further associations were revealed such as an inverse relationship between the proportion of wetlands and stream nitrate concentrations. We also found that barren lands were associated with elevated sulfate levels. This research suggests that an individual sampling event is unlikely to characterize adequately the complex processes controlling interactions between land use and stream chemistry. Combining data collected over two years during three synoptic sampling events appears to enhance our ability to understand processes linking stream chemistry and land use.

Michigan↗

USGS2025

Weather, habitat area, connectivity, and number of patches influence breeding ecology of ring-necked pheasants

Understanding habitat selection is critical in habitat prioritization for species of conservation and management concern. Information on habitat selection is particularly important for grassland bird species whose populations have suffered steep declines over the last few decades. We assessed ring-necked pheasants' ( Phasianus colchicus ) habitat selection in a dynamic agricultural landscape. The population dynamics of pheasants are partially related to nest survival, which may be influenced by the quality of nesting habitat. Consequently, knowledge of vegetation composition and structural characteristics associated with the selection and survival of nests would help inform management decisions to improve nest success. We monitored nests from 103 radio-collared pheasants inhabiting an agricultural landscape in South Dakota, USA, from 2017–2019 to determine the effect of landscape composition and configuration on nest-site selection and nest survival. We explored nesting behavior at 2 orders of selection: resource selection within the home range (third order) and selection of specific resource items from a resource patch (fourth order). Proportion of row crop and connectivity of row crop was negatively associated with nest-site selection at the third order. At the fourth order, pheasants tended to select for taller vegetation and greater percent grass cover than at paired random sites. Pheasants also selected areas with more grasslands. A 1% increase in grass cover and proportion of grassland increased the odds of nest-site selection by 1% and 2%, respectively. Connectivity of row crop patches was negatively associated with daily nest survival. We also evaluated factors affecting pheasant brood-site selection. A 1-unit increase in grass cover and Hemiptera biomass increased the odds of brood-site selection by 4%. The probability of brood-site selection also increased with fewer row crop patches. Weather played a crucial role in driving nest survival. The consideration of local weather trends and regional variation in habitat can inform habitat management for pheasants. Pheasant populations may benefit from research that identifies thermal landscapes and land management techniques that promote cooler microclimates for nesting and brood-rearing activities.

South Dakota↗

USGS2021

Improving evaluation of nonlethal tools for carnivore management and conservation: Evaluating fladry to protect an endangered species from a generalist mesocarnivore

Carnivore conservation and management are global research priorities focused on reversing population declines of imperiled species and identifying more effective and humane management of generalist carnivores with thriving populations. Nonlethal methods to mitigate conflict are increasingly used to advance conservation objectives; however, there is limited knowledge about the effectiveness of many nonlethal methods. We tested a nonlethal tool (fladry), that serves as a barrier to deter wolves Canis lupus and coyotes Canis latrans , for its efficacy at preventing coyotes from using prairie dog Cynomys ludovicianus colonies, the primary prey for critically endangered black-footed ferrets Mustela nigripes . We used camera trap data and an occupancy approach to evaluate the tool’s efficacy. We measured coyote response to fladry at both a coarse monthly scale (via use, attraction and avoidance probabilities) and a fine scale (via daily activity). Overall, use of areas inside exclosures declined by 60% after 60 days of fladry application and coyotes avoided some previously used areas both within and outside exclosures. Interestingly, coyotes were attracted to previously unused areas surrounding exclosures and increased activity around the periphery of fladry exclosures by 170% immediately after fladry installation, suggesting coyotes actively explored these areas and may have responded to fladry in a way that is counterintuitive to management expectations. Occupancy models provided more robust evaluation of fladry and revealed important behavioral responses relative to other common evaluation techniques (i.e. time until first detected crossing). Our results have implications for future development and evaluation of nonlethal tools for carnivore conservation and management globally.

South Dakota↗