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Geomorphology, active tectonics, and landscape evolution in the Mid-Atlantic region

In 2014, the geomorphology community marked the 125th birthday of one of its most influential papers, “The Rivers and Valleys of Pennsylvania” by William Morris Davis. Inspired by Davis’s work, the Appalachian landscape rapidly became fertile ground for the development and testing of several grand landscape evolution paradigms, culminating with John Hack’s dynamic equilibrium in 1960. As part of the 2015 GSA Annual Meeting, the Geomorphology, Active Tectonics, and Landscape Evolution field trip offers an excellent venue for exploring Appalachian geomorphology through the lens of the Appalachian landscape, leveraging exciting research by a new generation of process-oriented geomorphologists and geologic field mapping. Important geomorphologic scholarship has recently used the Appalachian landscape as the testing ground for ideas on long- and short-term erosion, dynamic topography, glacial-isostatic adjustments, active tectonics in an intraplate setting, river incision, periglacial processes, and soil-saprolite formation. This field trip explores a geologic and geomorphic transect of the mid-Atlantic margin, starting in the Blue Ridge of Virginia and proceeding to the east across the Piedmont to the Coastal Plain. The emphasis here will not only be on the geomorphology, but also the underlying geology that establishes the template and foundation upon which surface processes have etched out the familiar Appalachian landscape. The first day focuses on new and published work that highlights Cenozoic sedimentary deposits, soils, paleosols, and geomorphic markers (terraces and knickpoints) that are being used to reconstruct a late Cenozoic history of erosion, deposition, climate change, and active tectonics. The second day is similarly devoted to new and published work documenting the fluvial geomorphic response to active tectonics in the Central Virginia seismic zone (CVSZ), site of the 2011 M 5.8 Mineral earthquake and the integrated record of Appalachian erosion preserved on the Coastal Plain. The trip concludes on Day 3, joining the Kirk Bryan Field Trip at Great Falls, Virginia/ Maryland, to explore and discuss the dramatic processes of base-level fall, fluvial incision, and knickpoint retreat.

Virginia↗

Estimating the impacts of oil spills on polar bears

The polar bear is the apical predator and universal symbol of the Arctic. They occur throughout the Arctic marine environment wherever sea ice is prevalent. In the southern Beaufort Sea, polar bears are most common within the area of the outer continental shelf, where the hunt for seals along persistent leads and openings in the ice. Polar bears are a significant cultural and subsistence component of the lifestyles of indigenous people. They may also be one of the most important indicators of the health of the Arctic marine environment. Polar bears have a late age of maturation, a long inter0brth period, and small liter sizes. These life history features make polar bear populations susceptible to natural and human perturbations. Petroleum exploration and extraction have been in progress along the coast of northern Alaska for more than 25 years. Until recently, most activity has taken place on the mainland or at sites connected to the shore by a causeway. In 1999, BP Exploration-Alaska began constructing the first artificial production island designed to transport oil through sub-seafloor pipelines. Other similar projects have been proposed to begin in the next several years. The proximity of oil exploration and development to principal polar bear habitats raises concerns, and with the advent of true off-shore development projects, these concerns are compounded. Contact with oil and other industrial chemicals by polar bears, through grooming, consumption of tainted food, or direct consumption of chemicals, may be lethal. The active ice where polar bears hunt is also where spilled oil may be expected to concentrate during spring break-up and autumn freeze-up. Because of this, we could expect that an oil spill in the waters and ice of the continental shelf would have profound effects on polar bears. Assessments of the effects of spills, however, have not been done. This report described a promising method for estimating the effects of oil spills on polar bears in the Arctic marine environment. It uses enough real data to illuminate necessary calculations and illustrate the value of the methods. The results and conclusions presented here are only examples of possible scenarios resulting from a new estimation method. Final assessment of the potential impacts to polar bears of an oil spill remains a work in progress.

Alaska, Northwest Territories, Yukon↗

A review of silver-rich mineral deposits and their metallogeny

Mineral deposits with large inventories or high grades of silver are found in four genetic groups: (1) volcanogenic massive sulfide (VMS), (2) sedimentary exhalative (SEDEX), (3) lithogene, and, (4) magmatichydrothermal. Principal differences between the four groups relate to source rocks and regions, metal associations, process and timing of mineralization, and tectonic setting. These four groups may be subdivided into specific metal associations on ternary diagrams based on relative metal contents. The VMS deposits rarely contain more than 15,600 t Ag (500 Moz). Grades average 33 g/t Ag. Variable Ag- Pb-Zn-Cu-Au ± Sn concentrations are interpreted as having been derived both from shallow plutons and by leaching of the volcanic rock pile in regions of thin or no continental crust and the mineralization is syngenetic. Higher silver grades are associated with areas of abundant felsic volcanic rocks. The SEDEX deposits rarely contain more than 15,600 t Ag (500 Moz). Grades average 46 g/t Ag. Silver, lead, and zinc in relatively consistent proportions are leached from sedimentary rocks filling rift-related basins, where the continental crust is thin, and deposited as syngenetic to diagenetic massive sulfides. Pre-mineral volcanic rocks and their detritus may occur deep within the basin and gold is typically absent. Lithogene silver-rich deposits are epigenetic products of varying combinations of compaction, dewatering, meteoric water recharge, and metamorphism of rift basin-related clastic sedimentary and interbedded volcanic rocks. Individual deposits may contain more than 15,600 t Ag (500 Moz) at high grades. Ores are characterized by four well-defined metal associations, including Ag, Ag-Pb-Zn, Ag-Cu, and Ag-Co-Ni-U. Leaching, transport, and deposition of metals may occur both in specific sedimentary strata and other rock types adjacent to the rift. Multiple mineralizing events lasting 10 to 15 m.y., separated by as much as 1 b.y., may occur in a single basin. Gold is absent at economic levels. The magmatic-hydrothermal silver-rich deposits are epigenetic and related to cordilleran igneous and volcanic suites. Six magmatic-hydrothermal districts each contain more than 31,000 t Ag (1,000 Moz) with grades of veins >600 g/t Ag. Mineralization occurs as veins, massive sulfides in carbonate rocks, and disseminated deposits including porphyry silver deposits, a proposed exploration model. Most deposits are epithermal with low-sulfidation alteration assemblages. Deposits are often telescoped and well-zoned. All large and high-grade magmatic-hydrothermal deposits appear confined to regions of relatively thick continental crust above Cenozoic consuming plate margins on the eastern side of the Pacific Rim. Silver in these deposits may be partly derived by hydrothermal leaching of rocks under or adjacent to the deposits. Specific metal associations in SEDEX and lithogene deposits may reflect confinement of fluid flow to and derivation of metals from specific source rock types. Variable metal associations in VMS and magmatichydrothermal deposits may reflect derivation of metals from a more diverse suite of rocks by convecting hydrothermal systems and processes related to the generation of magma. The discovery rate for silver-rich deposits has accelerated during the past decade, with new deposit types, metal associations, and exploration models being identified that provide numerous exploration and research opportunities.

Book chapter↗

Multiscale hyperspectral imaging of the Orange Hill Porphyry Copper Deposit, Alaska, USA, with laboratory-, field-, and aircraft-based imaging spectrometers

In the past decade, use of hyperspectral imaging (imaging spectroscopy) for mineral exploration and mining operations has been increasing at different spatial scales. In this paper, we focus on recent trends in applying imaging spectrometer data to: 1) airborne imaging of high latitude deposits, 2) field-based imaging of outcrops, and 3) laboratory-level imaging of geologic samples. Comparing mineral information derived from imaging spectrometer data acquired at these three scales in Alaska in areas of exposed porphyry Cu-Au-Mo deposits, Orange Hill and Bond Creek, we find notable consistency in identifications of spectrally predominant minerals, including white mica, chlorite, clays, and gypsum. Variations in the wavelength position of white mica 2200 nm Al-OH absorption seen at the airborne level are echoed by finerscale field and laboratory imaging, with wavelength positions spanning the 2199 to 2207 nm range. The longerwavelength micas associated with porphyry formation are more phengitic in composition, and thus distinct from mica in plutonic and volcanic arc rocks not affected by magmatic-hydrothermal fluids. The hillside imagery, collected on a cloudy day that would have precluded aircraft survey, gave comparable result to airborne and laboratory data, indicating field-based imaging spectroscopy can be a feasible alternative to airborne survey for accessible targets. Direct spectral observation of molybdenite in rocks collected from the Orange Hill deposit demonstratesthat additional important mineral information can be revealed with laboratory level imaging spectroscopy that is difficult to obtain in coarser scale data, commonly due to low areal extent of target minerals. The spatial association of the clinochlore + white mica and long wavelength white mica spectral classes to multi-element Cu-Mo-Au anomalies from geochemical analyses of rocks and sediments support a causative relationship with magmatic-hydrothermal alteration. Mineral maps from the airborne data were used to guide field sampling that found additional CuMo-Au mineralized areas, which were previously unknown or unreported. The results from this study provide support for utilization of imaging spectroscopy for assisting mineral exploration in other portions of the state of Alaska as well as other areas at high latitudes. Imaging spectroscopy has the potential to provide targeting information for follow-up sampling and investigations, potentially reducing subsequent exploration costs.

Alaska↗

Habitat suitability index model improvement recommendations

As part of the model improvement effort for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan, the Habitat Suitability Index (HSI) models used during previous master plans were reevaluated to assess how the model relationships could be improved, and to determine what species should be included in the master plan analyses. This process considered the technical reviews, comments, and suggested improvements provided by model developers, advisory groups, and other experts during previous master plans. Reviews were then conducted to determine the availability of data and information that could be used to make model improvements. As a result of this effort, a recommended list of relevant species to model is provided, and HSI model improvements are recommended that are categorized by whether the suitability index (SI) relationship to be improved is statistical-based or literature-based. The species recommended to be included in the 2023 Coastal Master Plan analyses are: eastern oyster, brown shrimp, white shrimp, blue crab, crayfish, gulf menhaden, spotted seatrout, largemouth bass, American alligator, gadwall, mottled duck, brown pelican, seaside sparrow, and bald eagle. These species were selected because they represent a range of taxonomies, life histories, trophic levels, and habitats, and most are commercially- or recreationally-important in coastal Louisiana. Most of these species were also included in the 2017 Coastal Master Plan analyses, and the models used during that effort should be further improved. Seaside sparrow and bald eagle are new for the master plan, and new models should be developed for the analyses. The 2017 fish, shrimp, and blue crab HSI models included a water quality SI that was based on statistical analyses of species catch and environmental data collected by the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries. As suggested during the 2017 Coastal Master Plan, the modeling approach used to develop the water quality SI was revisited and alternate modeling approaches were explored. Using literature and an evaluation of the general steps of model development, three components for HSI model improvement were identified, including 1) selecting alternative modeling approach(es); 2) detecting and resolving statistical issues; and 3) improving model fit and evaluation. Multiple options for each component were explored, which resulted in a proposed multi-step phased approach for model improvement. This proposed approach entails improving the generalized linear models used for the 2017 water quality SIs and then, if desired, comparing them to alternative model approaches (e.g., generalized additive models) to explore model performance and select the best approach to use for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan HSI models. All of the existing master plan HSI models include literature-based SIs, which use information from published studies of species-habitat associations to derive suitability relationships. Similar to previous master plans, these literature-based SIs should be updated and improved for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan using recent literature and new ecological knowledge. Preliminary reviews were conducted and recent information was found that could be used to improve the eastern oyster, crayfish, and potentially brown pelican HSI models; but no appropriate recent literature was located for improvement of the American alligator, gadwall, and mottled duck HSI models. However, it is recommended that the literature reviews and information searches be continued. In addition to the statistical-based water quality SI, the 2017 fish, shrimp, and blue crab HSI models also included a structural habitat SI that was based on literature showing high densities of these species in fragmented marsh. The relationship used for this SI, however, did not account for the effects of other estuarine habitats, such as submerged aquatic vegetation and oyster reefs, which are also important to these species. Therefore, a meta-analysis approach is proposed that would estimate the relative importance of these habitats for each species, and the results of this analysis could be used to calculate a new structural habitat SI for the 2023 Coastal Master Plan.

Report↗

Cascadia Margin cold seeps: Subduction zone fluids, gas hydrates, and chemosynthetic habitats

Priority Geographic Area: The outer continental shelf and upper continental slope from Canada/U.S. border offshore Washington State to the Mendocino Fracture Zone (Northern California), entirely within the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), from the outermost shelf to at least 2000 m water depth (Figure 1). Description of Priority Area: Since 2015, over a thousand water column gas plumes originating at seafloor gas seeps have been discovered landward of the Cascadia deformation front (e.g., Embley et al., 2016; Johnson et al., 2015, 2019; Merle and Embley, 2016; NA-95 Cruise Report, 2018; Riedel et al., 2018), adding to those that had long been known on Hydrate Ridge (e.g., Heeschen et al., 2003; Tréhu et al., 2004). The recently-discovered seeps stretch from offshore Vancouver Island to the Mendocino Fracture Zone and from the outer shelf to ~2000 m water depth, occurring both landward and seaward of the nominal limit for gas hydrate stability zone on the upper continental slope (Figure 1). Hundreds of seeps likely remain undiscovered. Water column imaging is incomplete both within the target geographic area and farther seaward, between the 2000 m isobath and the deformation front, which is the subject of an imaging study described in a white paper by Watt et al. The recently-discovered Cascadia Margin cold seeps partially overlap an important active margin gas hydrate province (Spence et al., 2001; Tréhu et al., 2003, 2004), as well as an area where sediments on the North American plate are folded and faulted and affected by fluids generated in the subduction complex beneath the Cascadia forearc (e.g., Saffer and Tobin, 2011). Several Ocean Drilling Program expeditions have focused on hydrate systems offshore Vancouver and Oregon (e.g., Riedel et al., 2009; Tréhu et al., 2004) and on the connection between the shallow and deep hydrogeologic systems. Cabled observatories now continuously monitor physical, chemical, and venting processes on south Hydrate Ridge (OOI; e.g., Philip et al., 2016a) and offshore Vancouver Island (NEPTUNE; e.g. Römer et al., 2016). Outside of these well-studied gas hydrate areas, a subset of the recently-discovered Cascadia seeps, including some that we visited with R/V Falkor in 2019 (e.g., https://schmidtocean.org/cruise/methane-seeps-at-edge-of-hydrate-stability/), also likely emit methane associated with shallow subseafloor gas hydrate systems. Other seeps are delivering not only methane, but also deep-derived gases (Baumberger et al., 2018, 2020) to the seafloor. Many Cascadia Margin seeps have also been recognized at water depths too shallow (e.g., 175 m) to be connected to gas hydrate dynamics. These seeps are postulated to be emitting gas and fluids that originated deep in accretionary wedge before migrating up normal faults generated during forearc extension associated with large earthquakes (Johnson et al., 2019). Only a small fraction of the recently discovered U.S. Cascadia Margin water column gas plumes has so far been verified by ROVs (Hercules from E/V Nautilus in 2016 and 2018; SuBastian from R/V Falkor in 2018 and 2019) to correspond to seafloor seeps. Careful scientific mapping, investigation, and sampling at the seeps have also been limited (e.g., Baumberger et al., 2018, 2020; Merle and Embley, 2016; Seabrook et al., 2018; Greinert et al. 2019). This white paper focuses on expanding exploration of already-identified U.S. Cascadia Margin cold seeps through a multipronged and multidisciplinary discovery program that could be accomplished with a variety of NOAA assets. The goals of the proposed exploration activities are to develop high-resolution maps of seep fields from deep ocean vehicles; to verify (and sample) seafloor gas emissions at the locations of water column plumes for compositional and isotopic studies; to map, sample, and conduct analyses on chemosynthetic communities and deep-sea coral habitats near seep sites to document species distributions and habitats as a function of depth and latitude along the margin; to collect seep geologic samples that can constrain the timing of methane emissions through geochronology; and to record environmental data (e.g., CTD) near the seafloor and in the water column above the seeps. Seafloor mapping using shipboard systems (multibeam/backscatter) would be needed to characterize seafloor features near seep sites. Water column imaging (EK60/80 and/or multibeam WCD data) conducted before and after seafloor explorations would capture active methane plumes and constrain temporal variations in seep emissions (e.g., Kannberg et al., 2013; Philip et al., 2016a, 2016b), which are known to vary on time scales as rapid as tidal cycles on this margin (e.g., Römer et al., 2016). What are the characterization and data needs in this area? Check all that apply: __x_ Biology, Geology, Physical Oceanography, Chemistry ___ Marine Archaeology ___ Other Provide a list or brief description of the data needed within this area, from your perspective: 1. Water column backscatter to image active gas plumes 2. High-resolution multibeam bathymetry, seafloor backscatter, and shallow sub-bottom imaging 3. Visual characterization and ground truthing of potential seeps, including high-resolution mapping and photography from near-seafloor vehicles; collection of seep-associated species, corals, sediments, authigenic carbonates, gases, and seawater Describe relevance to national security, conservation, and/or the economy: The Cascadia margin seeps provide significant ecosystem services, including habitat for commercially important fishes and support for diversity along the continental margin. Methane seeps are also biological hotspots for krill, plankton, and crustaceans, which in turn sustain higher trophic levels (e.g., whales). Methane-derived authigenic carbonates serve as a hard substrate for deep-sea corals and sponges on millennial time scales. The studies proposed here will elucidate the relationship among seep environments, deep-sea corals, sponges, fisheries, and other organisms and provide new insight into subduction zone and hydrate-associated fluids in this important seismogenic zone. The studies address fishery management concerns and inform future conservation of sensitive species (e.g., deep-sea corals) and benthic habitats. From your perspective, what makes this area unique? The Cascadia Margin seeps are a critical component of the leaky margin that stretches from Baja California to the Aleutian Arc along the Pacific coastline of North America. Cold seeps have been intensely studied on the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. Atlantic passive margins with a focus on chemosynthetic communities, deep-sea corals, and leakage of microbially-generated and/or thermogenic hydrocarbons; however, the recently-discovered Cascadia Margin seeps, as well as active margin seep systems in general, remain more poorly characterized. Such seeps not only contribute to the ocean carbon cycle (e.g., Pohlman et al., 2011), thereby fueling the base of the food chain in these settings, but also emit subduction zone fluids that provide clues about processes within the seismogenic zone and the accretionary complex. The Cascadia seeps area allows both biological (e.g., benthic habitats, coral distributions) and physical processes (e.g., generation of subduction zone fluids) to be studied along both depth (perpendicular to the deformation front) and latitudinal gradients.

California, Oregon, Washington↗

Biology characterization breakout report

The primary goal of the biology characterization breakout group was to identify the strategies, tools, data priorities, and key partnerships needed to conduct baseline biological characterizations of deep-sea benthic environments across the U.S. EEZ in the Pacific. Discussions focused primarily on priorities for the characterization of deep-water (>200-meter depths) benthic biological communities; however, the group also emphasized that such characterizations need to be linked to efforts to characterize the overlying water column. The group was tasked with identifying how to prioritize exploration and characterization efforts, including how to identify priority geographic areas and specific methodologies needed to execute exploration activities. The expert community that provided input included representatives from various stakeholder groups actively working on deep-sea issues across the Pacific, including researchers and managers from government agencies, academic institutions, nongovernmental institutions, and the private sector. This report provides a summary of specific guidance identified as key for the successful exploration of deep-sea benthic habitats within the U.S. EEZ in the Pacific, as well as in adjacent international waters.

Conference Paper↗

Leveraging artificial intelligence and machine learning to advance Chesapeake Bay research and management: A review of status, challenges, and opportunities

The Chesapeake Bay and its watershed (hereafter “Chesapeake Bay region”) have been the focus of extensive restoration efforts for several decades. These restoration efforts are guided by the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement (Chesapeake Executive Council 2014) which outlines 10 goals and 31 measurable outcomes. The Chesapeake Bay is globally recognized as a model for coastal restoration due to long-term investments in monitoring, modeling, implementation and research by the Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) partnership. These monitoring network spans tidal and non-tidal regions and provides data across multiple scales. Artificial intelligence (AI), particularly machine-learning (ML) and deep learning (DL), has emerged as a powerful tool for analyzing large, complex datasets. These techniques have gained widespread adoption across various disciplines, including ecology, hydrology, and environmental science. In the Bay context, AI/ML is increasingly being used to explore drivers of environmental change, analyze system dynamics, and predict conditions in areas with limited monitoring. The CBP partnership, particularly its Scientific and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC), has increasingly recognized the growing role of AI/ML in watershed and estuarine management. Recent Chesapeake Community Research Symposium sessions and initiatives such as the Chesapeake Global Collaboratory highlight increasing regional momentum to apply big data and AI/ML for environmental solutions. Together, these developments underscore the timely need to explore how AI/ML can help advance Chesapeake Bay restoration and management. This STAC workshop, titled “Leveraging Artificial Intelligence and Machine learning to Advance Chesapeake Bay Research and Management: A review of status, challenges, and opportunities,” was held from February 24-25, 2025, in Edgewater, Maryland to bring together over 50 federal, state, and academic scientists and partners to synthesize the current state of AI/ML applications and identify research gaps in Chesapeake Bay research and management. The workshop focused on three main objectives: 1. Summarize recent AI/ML applications and lessons learned in both tidal and nontidal areas of the Chesapeake Bay region. 2. Identify challenges and gaps in applying AI/ML approaches to Chesapeake Bay data. Such challenges and gaps may include data limitations, harmonization issues, ineffective communication of AI/ML insights, and a lack of coordination among research and management institutions. 3. Develop recommendations and identify opportunities for leveraging AI/ML to address issues across the Chesapeake Bay region. Key areas of focus may include generating new information to support watershed management, delivering AI/MLgenerated insights to managers in a clear and actionable way, and fostering greater collaboration among stakeholders within the CBP Partnership. Workshop participants engaged in science presentations and breakout sessions to develop recommendations for advancing the integration of AI/ML techniques into research and management across the Chesapeake Bay region. By synthesizing current applications, identifying challenges, and exploring new opportunities, the workshop has provided valuable insights and recommendations for better leveraging AI/ML approaches to support the success of Bay restoration efforts. Together, these recommendations provide a roadmap for enhancing data-driven, science-based decision making aligned with the goals and outcomes of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Agreement.

Delaware, Maryland, Virginia↗

The distribution of uranium and thorium in granitic rocks of the basin and range province, Western United States

Some secondary uranium deposits are thought to have formed from uranium derived by the weathering of silicic igneous rocks such as granites, rhyolites, and tuffs. A regional geochemical survey was made to determine the distribution of uranium and thorium in granitic rocks of the Basin and Range province in order to evaluate the potential for secondary uranium occurrences in the area. The resulting geochemical maps of uranium, thorium, and the Th:U ratio may be useful in locating target areas for uranium exploration. The granites were sampled according to a five-level, nested, analysis-of-variance design, permitting estimates to be made of the variance due to differences between:(1) two-degree cells; (2) one-degree cells; (3) plutons; (4) samples; and (5) analyses. The cells are areas described in units of degrees of latitude and longitude. The results show that individual plutons tend to differ in uranium and thorium concentrations, but that each pluton tends to be relatively homogeneous. Only small amounts of variance occur at the two degree and the between-analyses levels. The three geochemical maps that were prepared are based on one-degree cell means. The reproducibility of the maps is U > Th ⪢ Th:U. These geochemical maps may be used in three methods of locating target areas for uranium exploration. The first method uses the concept that plutons containing the greatest amounts of uranium may supply the greatest amounts of uranium for the formation of secondary uranium occurrences. The second method is to examine areas with high thorium contents, because thorium and uranium are initially highly correlated but much uranium could be lost by weathering. The third method is to locate areas in which the plutons have particularly high Th:U ratios. Because uranium, but not thorium, is leached by chemical weathering, high Th:U ratios suggest a possible loss of uranium and possibly a greater potential for secondary uranium occurrences to be found in the area.

Arizona, California, Nevada, Utah↗

Geochemical studies in the Indian Pass and Picacho Peak Bureau of Land Management Wilderness study areas, imperial county, Southern California

The U.S. Geological Survey has conducted geochemical studies in the Indian Pass (CDCA-355), 124 km 2 , and Picacho Peak (CDCA-355A), 23 km 2 , Wilderness Study Areas (WSA's) as part of a program to evaluate the mineral resource potential of designated areas in the California Desert Conservation Area. These two WSA's are of particular interest because they lie within a region which has intermittently produced significant quantities of Au since the mid-1800's, and is currently the site of much exploration activity for additional Au resources. Within a 15-km radius of the WSA's, there is one actively producing gold mine, a major deposit which began production in 1986, and one recently announced discovery. In the reconnaissance geochemical surveys of the two WSA's - 177 μm (-80 mesh) stream sediments, heavy-mineral concentrates from stream sediments, and rocks were prepared and analyzed. Four areas of possible exploration interest were identified within the WSA's. The first area is characterized by anomalous W and Bi in nonmagnetic heavy-mineral concentrates, and is underlain primarily by the Mesozoic Orocopia Schist which has been intruded by monzogranite of Oligocene age. Alteration and mineralization appear to be localized near the intrusive contact. The mineralized rock at the surface contains secondary Cu and Fe minerals where the monzogranite intrudes the metabasite horizons of the Orocopia Schist and scheelite where the monzogranite intrudes marble within the Orocopia Schist.

Journal of Geochemical Exploration↗

Tungsten skarn potential of the Yukon-Tanana Upland, eastern Alaska, USA—A mineral resource assessment

Tungsten (W) is used in a variety of industrial and technological applications and has been identified as a critical mineral for the United States, India, the European Union, and other countries. These countries rely on W imports mostly from China, which leaves them vulnerable to supply disruption. Consequently, the U.S. government has a current initiative to understand domestic resource potential. The eastern Alaska portion of the Yukon-Tanana Upland (YTU), is prospective for W skarn deposits, the major source of global W supply. The regional geology consists of juxtaposed Paleozoic lithotectonic packages that were reaccreted to North America in the Mesozoic . Multiple subsequent episodes of arc-related magmatism intruded the lithotectonic packages, accompanied by W skarn formation mostly associated with 100–90 Ma intrusions; major W skarn deposits in Canada are part of the same metallogenic event (e.g., Mactung, Cantung). In this paper, we present an assessment for undiscovered W skarn resources for parts of the lesser-explored western (Alaskan) portion of the YTU. We used GIS proximity analysis to map the intersection of pluton and carbonate-bearing rocks to define three permissive tracts for W skarn deposits. The permissive tracts were qualitatively assessed by mineral potential mapping using region-wide sediment geochemistry and mineral concentrate datasets. This analysis showed that much of the western YTU has high potential for undiscovered W skarn deposits, whereas the eastern and southern YTU had only isolated areas of medium to high potential. Historical production and the quality of the geochemistry data of the western YTU tract (ca. 9200 km 2 ) permitted a quantitative assessment of undiscovered W resources. Probabilistic estimates by a panel of 20 experts predicted a 70% chance of one to three undiscovered W skarn deposits in the western YTU tract. The rationale for favorability employed by the expert panel included favorable lithology, previous production, clustering of previously mined deposits, W placers in the area, lack of recent exploration, pan concentrates containing W minerals, and W geochemical anomalies. Estimates were combined with a global grade and tonnage model for W skarns in a Monte Carlo simulation and provided a median estimate of undiscovered resources of 94 kt WO 3 . If the undiscovered W skarn deposits are located close to infrastructure (e.g., near Fairbanks, or close to roads and/or power grid), application of an economic filter indicates that the median total economically recoverable WO 3 is 63 kt with a net present value (NPV) of $330 million USD (2008 dollars). Whereas if deposits are far from infrastructure, median recoverable WO 3 is only 30 kt and the NPV is $44 million. Our models for contained WO 3 resources and NPV estimates for the western YTU tract are considerably lower than the known resources in skarns in adjacent areas in Canada. Estimates for the western YTU are also lower than preliminary estimates for undiscovered W skarn deposits in areas of the western conterminous United States. We speculate that lower permeability and continuity of favorable carbonate rock horizons in the relatively higher-grade metamorphic country rocks in the Alaska portion of the YTU may explain some of the differences in prospectivity. More detailed geologic mapping, modern geochemistry, and geophysical surveys are needed to refine the resource potential of the whole YTU. Regardless, quantitative mineral resource assessment provides a useful tool for making first-order regional estimates of undiscovered resources, identifying target areas for new data acquisition, and guiding research on the fundamental controls of district-scale metallogenic endowments.

Alaska↗

Electromagnetic and magnetic imaging of the Stillwater Complex, Montana, USA

Modelling and analysis of helicopter electromagnetic data result in resistivity and susceptibility models and derivatives of magnetic data that characterise shallow parts of the Stillwater Complex, critical for aiding exploration and expansion of globally scarce critical and battery mineral resources that include platinum group elements, nickel, copper and chromium. The magnetic susceptibly models derived from the electromagnetic data and the tilt derivative of the magnetic data image layering, mafic dikes, banded iron formation, and serpentinised peridotite. Known areas with contact-type mineralisation are generally characterised by low resistivities and susceptibilities where the volume of mineralised rock is large and/or the depth is shallow. We use iso-cluster and edge detection analysis of both resistivities and susceptibilities to identify potential mineralisation in poorly characterised regions as well as faults. Low resistivity layers beneath large landslides reflect water saturated porous slip surfaces which can interfere with drilling. This uncommon approach of tightly linking the resistivity and susceptibility models and magnetic anomaly data to rock property, surficial geologic, drill hole and soil geochemistry data to image the geology in the upper ∼100 m, aids identification of prospective mineralised regions as well landslides and faults that can impact mineral exploration and local hazards.

Montana↗

Control on groundwater flow in a semiarid folded and faulted intermountain basin

The major processes controlling groundwater flow in intermountain basins are poorly understood, particularly in basins underlain by folded and faulted bedrock and under regionally realistic hydrogeologic heterogeneity. To explore the role of hydrogeologic heterogeneity and poorly constrained mountain hydrologic conditions on regional groundwater flow in contracted intermountain basins, a series of 3-D numerical groundwater flow models were developed using the South Park basin, Colorado, USA as a proxy. The models were used to identify the relative importance of different recharge processes to major aquifers, to estimate typical groundwater circulation depths, and to explore hydrogeologic communication between mountain and valley hydrogeologic landscapes. Modeling results show that mountain landscapes develop topographically controlled and predominantly local-scale to intermediate-scale flow systems. Permeability heterogeneity of the fold and fault belt and decreased topographic roughness led to permeability controlled flow systems in the valley. The structural position of major aquifers in the valley fold and fault belt was found to control the relative importance of different recharge mechanisms. Alternative mountain recharge model scenarios showed that higher mountain recharge rates led to higher mountain water table elevations and increasingly prominent local flow systems, primarily resulting in increased seepage within the mountain landscape and nonlinear increases in mountain block recharge to the valley. Valley aquifers were found to be relatively insensitive to changing mountain water tables, particularly in structurally isolated aquifers inside the fold and fault belt.

Colorado↗

Preslip and cascade processes initiating laboratory stick slip

Recent modeling studies have explored whether earthquakes begin with a large aseismic nucleation process or initiate dynamically from the rapid growth of a smaller instability in a “cascade-up” process. To explore such a case in the laboratory, we study the initiation of dynamic rupture (stick slip) of a smooth saw-cut fault in a 76mm diameter cylindrical granite laboratory sample at 40–120MPa confining pressure. We use a high dynamic range recording system to directly compare the seismic waves radiated during the stick-slip event to those radiated from tiny (M _6) discrete seismic events, commonly known as acoustic emissions (AEs), that occur in the seconds prior to each large stick slip. The seismic moments, focal mechanisms, locations, and timing of the AEs all contribute to our understanding of their mechanics and provide us with information about the stick-slip nucleation process. In a sequence of 10 stick slips, the first few microseconds of the signals recorded from stick-slip instabilities are nearly indistinguishable from those of premonitory AEs. In this sense, it appears that each stick slip begins as an AE event that rapidly (~20 μs) grows about 2 orders of magnitude in linear dimension and ruptures the entire 150mm length of the simulated fault. We also measure accelerating fault slip in the final seconds before stick slip. We estimate that this slip is at least 98% aseismic and that it both weakens the fault and produces AEs that will eventually cascade-up to initiate the larger dynamic rupture.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

Predicting the resilience and recovery of aquatic systems: a framework for model evolution within environmental observatories

Maintaining the health of aquatic systems is an essential component of sustainable catchmentmanagement, however, degradation of water quality and aquatic habitat continues to challenge scientistsand policy-makers. To support management and restoration efforts aquatic system models are requiredthat are able to capture the often complex trajectories that these systems display in response to multiplestressors. This paper explores the abilities and limitations of current model approaches in meeting this chal-lenge, and outlines a strategy based on integration of flexible model libraries and data from observationnetworks, within a learning framework, as a means to improve the accuracy and scope of model predictions.The framework is comprised of a data assimilation component that utilizes diverse data streams from sensornetworks, and a second component whereby model structural evolution can occur once the model isassessed against theoretically relevant metrics of system function. Given the scale and transdisciplinarynature of the prediction challenge, network science initiatives are identified as a means to develop and inte-grate diverse model libraries and workflows, and to obtain consensus on diagnostic approaches to modelassessment that can guide model adaptation. We outline how such a framework can help us explore thetheory of how aquatic systems respond to change by bridging bottom-up and top-down lines of enquiry,and, in doing so, also advance the role of prediction in aquatic ecosystem management.

Water Resources Research↗

Drivers of variability in public‐supply water use across the contiguous United States

This study explores the relationship between municipal water use and an array of climate, economic, behavioral, and policy variables across the contiguous U.S. The relationship is explored using Bayesian‐hierarchical regression models for over 2,500 counties, 18 covariates, and three higher‐level grouping variables. Additionally, a second analysis is included for 83 cities where water price and water conservation policy information is available. A hierarchical model using the nine climate regions (product of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) as the higher‐level groups results in the best out‐of‐sample performance, as estimated by the Widely Available Information Criterion, compared to counties grouped by urban continuum classification or primary economic activity. The regression coefficients indicate that the controls on water use are not uniform across the nation: e.g., counties in the Northeast and Northwest climate regions are more sensitive to social variables, whereas counties in the Southwest and East North Central climate regions are more sensitive to environmental variables. For the national city‐level model, it appears that arid cities with a high cost of living and relatively low water bills sell more water per customer, but as with the county‐level model, the effect of each variable depends heavily on where a city is located.

Water Resources Research↗

A pesticide paradox: Fungicides indirectly increase fungal infections

There are many examples where the use of chemicals have had profound unintended consequences, such as fertilizers reducing crop yields (paradox of enrichment) and insecticides increasing insect pests (by reducing natural biocontrol). Recently, the application of agrochemicals, such as agricultural disinfectants and fungicides, has been explored as an approach to curb the pathogenic fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ), which is associated with worldwide amphibian declines. However, the long-term, net effects of early-life exposure to these chemicals on amphibian disease risk have not been thoroughly investigated. Using a combination of laboratory experiments and analysis of data from the literature, we explored the effects of fungicide exposure on Bd infections in two frog species. Extremely low concentrations of the fungicides azoxystrobin, chlorothalonil, and mancozeb were directly toxic to Bd in culture. However, estimated environmental concentrations of the fungicides did not reduce Bd on Cuban tree frog ( Osteopilus septentrionalis ) tadpoles exposed simultaneously to any of these fungicides and Bd , and fungicide exposure actually increased Bd -induced mortality. Additionally, exposure to any of these fungicides as tadpoles resulted in higher Bd abundance and greater Bd -induced mortality when challenged with Bd post-metamorphosis, an average of 71 d after their last fungicide exposure. Analysis of data from the literature revealed that previous exposure to the fungicide itraconazole, which is commonly used to clear Bd infections, made the critically endangered booroolong frog ( Litoria booroolongensis ) more susceptible to Bd . Finally, a field survey revealed that Bd prevalence was positively associated with concentrations of fungicides in ponds. Although fungicides show promise for controlling Bd , these results suggest that, if fungicides do not completely eliminate Bd or if Bd recolonizes, exposure to fungicides has the potential to do more harm than good. To ensure that fungicide applications have the intended consequence of curbing amphibian declines, researchers must identify which fungicides do not compromise the pathogen resistance mechanisms of amphibians.

Ecological Applications↗

Host-pathogen metapopulation dynamics suggest high elevation refugia for boreal toads

Emerging infectious diseases are an increasingly common threat to wildlife. Chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis ( Bd ), is an emerging infectious disease that has been linked to amphibian declines around the world. Few studies exist that explore amphibian- Bd dynamics at the landscape scale, limiting our ability to identify which factors are associated with variation in population susceptibility and to develop effective in situ disease management. Declines of boreal toads ( Anaxyrus boreas boreas ) in the Southern Rocky Mountains are largely attributed to chytridiomycosis but variation exists in local extinction of boreal toads across this metapopulation. Using a large-scale historic dataset, we explored several potential factors influencing disease dynamics in the boreal toad- Bd system: geographic isolation of populations, amphibian community richness, elevational differences, and habitat permanence. We found evidence that boreal toad extinction risk was lowest at high elevations where temperatures may be sub-optimal for Bd growth and where small boreal toad populations may be below the threshold needed for efficient pathogen transmission. In addition, boreal toads were more likely to recolonize high elevation sites after local extinction, again suggesting that high elevations may provide refuge from disease for boreal toads. We illustrate a modeling framework that will be useful to natural resource managers striving to make decisions in amphibian- Bd systems. Our data suggest that in the southern Rocky Mountains high elevation sites should be prioritized for conservation initiatives like reintroductions.

Ecological Applications↗