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At least 901 records · Page 50Linked to original sources
USGS2005

Effects of biotic and abiotic factors on the distribution of trout and salmon along a longitudinal stream gradient

We examined the influence of biotic and abiotic factors on the distribution, abundance, and condition of salmonid fishes along a stream gradient. We observed a longitudinal change in fish distribution with native cutthroat trout, Oncorhynchus clarki utah, and introduced brown trout, Salmo trutta, demonstrating a distinct pattern of allopatry. Cutthroat trout dominated high elevation reaches, while reaches at lower elevations were dominated by brown trout. A transition zone between these populations was associated with lower total trout abundance, consistent changes in temperature and discharge, and differences in dietary preference. Variation in cutthroat trout abundance was best explained by a model including the abundance of brown trout and diel temperature, whereas variation in brown trout abundance was best explained by a model including the abundance of cutthroat trout and discharge. These results suggest the potential for condition-mediated competition between the two species. The results from our study can aid biologists in prioritizing conservation activities and in developing robust management strategies for cutthroat trout. ?? Springer 2005.

Environmental Biology of Fishes↗
USGS2016

Effectiveness of vegetation buffers surrounding playa wetlands at contaminant and sediment amelioration

Playa wetlands, the dominant hydrological feature of the semi-arid U.S. High Plains providing critical ecosystem services, are being lost and degraded due to anthropogenic alterations of the short-grass prairie landscape. The primary process contributing to the loss of playas is filling of the wetland through accumulation of soil eroded and transported by precipitation from surrounding cultivated watersheds. We evaluated effectiveness of vegetative buffers surrounding playas in removing metals, nutrients, and dissolved/suspended sediments from precipitation runoff. Storm water runoff was collected at 10-m intervals in three buffer types (native grass, fallow cropland, and Conservation Reserve Program). Buffer type differed in plant composition, but not in maximum percent removal of contaminants. Within the initial 60 m from a cultivated field, vegetation buffers of all types removed >50% of all measured contaminants, including 83% of total suspended solids (TSS) and 58% of total dissolved solids (TDS). Buffers removed an average of 70% of P and 78% of N to reduce nutrients entering the playa. Mean maximum percent removal for metals ranged from 56% of Na to 87% of Cr. Maximum removal was typically at 50 m of buffer width. Measures of TSS were correlated with all measures of metals and nutrients except for N, which was correlated with TDS. Any buffer type with >80% vegetation cover and 30–60 m in width would maximize contaminant removal from precipitation runoff while ensuring that playas would continue to function hydrologically to provide ecosystem services. Watershed management to minimize erosion and creations of vegetation buffers could be economical and effective conservation tools for playa wetlands.

Journal of Environmental Management↗
USGS2010

Evaluating the behavior of gadolinium and other rare earth elements through large metropolitan sewage treatment plants

A primary pathway for emerging contaminants (pharmaceuticals, personal care products, steroids, and hormones) to enter aquatic ecosystems is effluent from sewage treatment plants (STP), and identifying technologies to minimize the amount of these contaminants released is important. Quantifying the flux of these contaminants through STPs is difficult. This study evaluates the behavior of gadolinium, a rare earth element (REE) utilized as a contrasting agent in magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), through four full-scale metropolitan STPs that utilize several biosolids thickening, conditioning, stabilization, and dewatering processing technologies. The organically complexed Gd from MRIs has been shown to be stable in aquatic systems and has the potential to be utilized as a conservative tracer in STP operations to compare to an emerging contaminant of interest. Influent and effluent waters display large enrichments in Gd compared to other REEs. In contrast, most sludge samples from the STPs do not display Gd enrichments, including primary sludges and end-product sludges. The excess Gd appears to remain in the liquid phase throughout the STP operations, but detailed quantification of the input Gd load and residence times of various STP operations is needed to utilize Gd as a conservative tracer.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2004

Evaluating microbial purification during soil treatment of wastewater with multicomponent tracer and surrogate tests

Soil treatment of wastewater has the potential to achieve high purification efficiency, yet the understanding and predictability of purification with respect to removal of viruses and other pathogens is limited. Research has been completed to quantify the removal of virus and bacteria through the use of microbial surrogates and conservative tracers during controlled experiments with three-dimensional pilot-scale soil treatment systems in the laboratory and during the testing of full-scale systems under field conditions. The surrogates and tracers employed included two viruses (MS-2 and PRID-1 bacteriophages), one bacterium (ice-nucleating active Pseudomonas ), and one conservative tracer (bromide ion). Efforts have also been made to determine the relationship between viruses and fecal coliform bacteria in soil samples below the wastewater infiltrative surface, and the correlation between Escherichia coli concentrations measured in percolating soil solution as compared with those estimated from analyses of soil solids. The results suggest episodic breakthrough of virus and bacteria during soil treatment of wastewater and a 2 to 3 log (99-99.9%) removal of virus and near complete removal of fecal coliform bacteria during unsaturated flow through 60 to 90 cm of sandy medium. Results also suggest that the fate of fecal coliform bacteria may be indicative of that of viruses in soil media near the infiltrative surface receiving wastewater effluent. Concentrations of fecal coliform in percolating soil solution may be conservatively estimated from analysis of extracted soil solids.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗
USGS2022

Reassessing perennial cover as a driver of duck nest survival in the Prairie Pothole Region

Conservation plans designed to sustain North American duck populations prominently feature a key hypothesis stating that the amount of the landscape in perennial cover surrounding upland duck nests positively influences nest survival rates. Recent conflicting research testing this hypothesis creates ambiguity regarding which management actions to pursue and where to prioritize conservation delivery. We compared existing models and new formulations of existing models explaining spatiotemporal variation in nest survival using independent data documenting the fate of >20,000 duck nests within the Drift Prairie, Missouri Coteau, and Prairie Coteau physiographic regions of the United States Prairie Pothole Region during 2002–2018. Our results suggest an inconsistent relationship between perennial cover and survival of upland duck nests, which depended upon physiographic region and current and time-lagged landscape and environmental conditions. The magnitude and direction of how perennial cover correlated with daily nest survival depended on its dominance as a landcover type. A positive relationship existed when perennial cover was a minor component of landcover in all physiographic regions (<30% of a 10.4-km 2 area) and, in the Drift Prairie and Prairie Coteau, when perennial cover was the dominant landcover type (>60%). A constant or negative relationship was predicted at locations of about 30–60% perennial cover. Additionally, environmental conditions (i.e., density of wetlands and estimated gross primary productivity in the previous year) moderated or enhanced the effect of perennial cover on nest survival, depending on physiographic region. Our finding of inconsistency in the relationship between perennial cover and nest survival contradicts the conservation premise that nest survival universally increases linearly when uplands are converted to perennial cover. Promoting policies and management actions designed to increase perennial cover can be expected to be situationally but not consistently associated with higher survival of upland duck nests.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗
USGS2012

Mapping anuran habitat suitability to estimate effects of grassland and wetland conservation programs

The conversion of the Northern Great Plains of North America to a landscape favoring agricultural commodity production has negatively impacted wildlife habitats. To offset impacts, conservation programs have been implemented by the U.S. Department of Agriculture and other agencies to restore grassland and wetland habitat components. To evaluate effects of these efforts on anuran habitats, we used call survey data and environmental data in ecological niche factor analyses implemented through the program Biomapper to quantify habitat suitability for five anuran species within a 196 km 2 study area. Our amphibian call surveys identified Northern Leopard Frogs ( Lithobates pipiens ), Wood Frogs ( Lithobates sylvaticus ), Boreal Chorus Frogs ( Pseudacris maculata ), Great Plains Toads ( Anaxyrus cognatus ), and Woodhouse’s Toads ( Anaxyrus woodhousii ) occurring within the study area. Habitat suitability maps developed for each species revealed differing patterns of suitable habitat among species. The most significant findings of our mapping effort were 1) the influence of deep-water overwintering wetlands on suitable habitat for all species encountered except the Boreal Chorus Frog; 2) the lack of overlap between areas of core habitat for both the Northern Leopard Frog and Wood Frog compared to the core habitat for both toad species; and 3) the importance of conservation programs in providing grassland components of Northern Leopard Frog and Wood Frog habitat. The differences in habitats suitable for the five species we studied in the Northern Great Plains, i.e., their ecological niches, highlight the importance of utilizing an ecosystem based approach that considers the varying needs of multiple species in the development of amphibian conservation and management plans.

Copeia↗
USGS2020

Using NASA Earth observations and Google Earth Engine to map winter cover crop conservation performance in the Chesapeake Bay watershed

Winter cover crops such as barley, rye, and wheat help to improve soil structure by increasing porosity, aggregate stability, and organic matter, while reducing the loss of agricultural nutrients and sediments into waterways. The environmental performance of cover crops is affected by choice of species, planting date, planting method, nutrient inputs, temperature, and precipitation. The Maryland Department of Agriculture (MDA) oversees an agricultural cost-share program that provides farmers with funding to cover costs associated with planting winter cover crops, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture-Agricultural Research Service (USDA-ARS) have partnered with the MDA to develop satellite remote sensing techniques for measuring cover crop performance. The MDA has developed the capacity to digitize field boundaries for all fields enrolled in their cover crop programs (>26,000 fields per year) to support a remote sensing performance analysis at a statewide scal,e and has requested assistance with the associated imagery processing from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Using the Google Earth Engine (GEE) cloud computing platform, scripts were developed to process Landsat 5/7/8 and Harmonized Sentinel-2 imagery to measure winter cover crop performance. We calibrated cover crop performance models using linear regression between satellite vegetation indices and USGS / USDA-ARS field sampling data collected on Maryland farms between 2006 and 2012 (1298 samples). Satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values showed significant correlation with the natural logarithm of cover crop biomass ( p ≤0.01, R 2 = 0.56) and with observed percent vegetative ground cover (p ≤0.01, R 2 = 0.68). The GEE scripts were used to composite seasonal maximum NDVI values for each enrolled cover crop field and calculate performance metrics for the winter and spring seasons of three enrollment years (2014–15, 2015–16, and 2017–18) for four Maryland counties. Results from winter 2017–18 demonstrate that rye and barley fields had higher biomass than wheat fields, and that early planting, along with planting methods that increase seed-soil contact, increased performance. The processing capabilities of GEE will support the MDA in scaling up remote sensing performance analysis statewide, providing information to evaluate the environmental outcomes associated with various agronomic management strategies. The tool can be modified for different seasonal cutoffs, utilize new sensors to capture phenology in winter and spring, and scale to larger regions for use in adaptive management of winter cover crops planted for environmental benefit.

Maryland↗
USGS2013

Rejoinder: Challenge and opportunity in the study of ungulate migration amid environmental change

Increasingly, animals that migrate long distances to exploit seasonal habitats must traverse political boundaries capable of altering the very ecological gradients that promote migratory behavior. This transboundary aspect of migration presents many new challenges and opportunities for research and conservation (e.g., Bolger et al. 2008, Taillon et al. 2012). Work to date has often focused on physical barriers to movement (roads, fences,and housing and energy development) that can threaten migratory populations to varying degrees (Holdo et al. 2011, Sawyer et al. 2013). However, even in the absence of conspicuous barriers, political and jurisdictional boundaries can bring dramatic differences in land use and conservation policy. What happens to migratory populations when these boundaries alter the resources and refuges that they seek on their seasonal journeys?

Ecology↗
USGS2022

Site fidelity as a maladaptive behavior in the Anthropocene

Site fidelity, or the behavior of returning to previously visited locations, has been observed across taxa and ecosystems. By developing familiarity with a particular location, site fidelity provides a range of benefits and is advantageous in stable or predictable environments. However, the Anthropocene is characterized by rates of environmental change that outpace the evolutionary history of extant taxa, which can result in site fidelity becoming maladaptive. Here we outline the theoretical underpinnings for maladaptive site fidelity and synthesize empirical research supporting its occurrence, and examine it in the context of a related concept, ecological traps, whereby organisms exhibit maladaptive behavior in habitat selection. We then discuss adaptive mechanisms that may enable species with site fidelity to continue to persist in the Anthropocene. With ongoing environmental change, researchers and practitioners should expect fidelity-induced ecological traps to become more common, and initiate projects to identify and understand their origins. Such knowledge will help conserve the widespread and ecologically important behavior of site fidelity.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗
USGS2013

Incorporating probabilistic seasonal climate forecasts into river management using a risk-based framework

[1] Despite the influence of hydroclimate on river ecosystems, most efforts to date have focused on using climate information to predict streamflow for water supply. However, as water demands intensify and river systems are increasingly stressed, research is needed to explicitly integrate climate into streamflow forecasts that are relevant to river ecosystem management. To this end, we present a five step risk-based framework: (1) define risk tolerance, (2) develop a streamflow forecast model, (3) generate climate forecast ensembles, (4) estimate streamflow ensembles and associated risk, and (5) manage for climate risk. The framework is successfully demonstrated for an unregulated watershed in southwest Montana, where the combination of recent drought and water withdrawals has made it challenging to maintain flows needed for healthy fisheries. We put forth a generalized linear modeling (GLM) approach to develop a suite of tools that skillfully model decision-relevant low flow characteristics in terms of climate predictors. Probabilistic precipitation forecasts are used in conjunction with the GLMs, resulting in season-ahead prediction ensembles that provide the full risk profile. These tools are embedded in an end-to-end risk management framework that directly supports proactive fish conservation efforts. Results show that the use of forecasts can be beneficial to planning, especially in wet years, but historical precipitation forecasts are quite conservative (i.e., not very “sharp”). Synthetic forecasts show that a modest “sharpening” can strongly impact risk and improve skill. We emphasize that use in management depends on defining relevant environmental flows and risk tolerance, requiring local stakeholder involvement.

Montana↗
USGS2014

Distribution of soil organic carbon in the conterminous United States

The U.S. Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database provides detailed soil mapping for most of the conterminous United States (CONUS). These data have been used to formulate estimates of soil carbon stocks, and have been useful for environmental models, including plant productivity models, hydrologic models, and ecological models for studies of greenhouse gas exchange. The data were compiled by the U.S. Department of Agriculture Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) from 1:24,000-scale or 1:12,000-scale maps. It was found that the total soil organic carbon stock in CONUS to 1 m depth is 57 Pg C and for the total profile is 73 Pg C, as estimated from SSURGO with data gaps filled from the 1:250,000-scale Digital General Soil Map. We explore the non-linear distribution of soil carbon on the landscape and with depth in the soil, and the implications for sampling strategies that result from the observed soil carbon variability.

Book chapter↗
USGS2006

Scaling local species-habitat relations to the larger landscape with a hierarchical spatial count model

Much of what is known about avian species-habitat relations has been derived from studies of birds at local scales. It is entirely unclear whether the relations observed at these scales translate to the larger landscape in a predictable linear fashion. We derived habitat models and mapped predicted abundances for three forest bird species of eastern North America using bird counts, environmental variables, and hierarchical models applied at three spatial scales. Our purpose was to understand habitat associations at multiple spatial scales and create predictive abundance maps for purposes of conservation planning at a landscape scale given the constraint that the variables used in this exercise were derived from local-level studies. Our models indicated a substantial influence of landscape context for all species, many of which were counter to reported associations at finer spatial extents. We found land cover composition provided the greatest contribution to the relative explained variance in counts for all three species; spatial structure was second in importance. No single spatial scale dominated any model, indicating that these species are responding to factors at multiple spatial scales. For purposes of conservation planning, areas of predicted high abundance should be investigated to evaluate the conservation potential of the landscape in their general vicinity. In addition, the models and spatial patterns of abundance among species suggest locations where conservation actions may benefit more than one species. ?? 2006 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Landscape Ecology↗
USGS2023

Environmental transmission of Pseudogymnoascus destructans to hibernating little brown bats

Pathogens with persistent environmental stages can have devastating effects on wildlife communities. White-nose syndrome (WNS), caused by the fungus Pseudogymnoascus destructans, has caused widespread declines in bat populations of North America. In 2009, during the early stages of the WNS investigation and before molecular techniques had been developed to readily detect P. destructans in environmental samples, we initiated this study to assess whether P. destructans can persist in the hibernaculum environment in the absence of its conclusive bat host and cause infections in naive bats. We transferred little brown bats ( Myotis lucifugus ) from an unaffected winter colony in northwest Wisconsin to two P. destructans contaminated hibernacula in Vermont where native bats had been excluded . Infection with P. destructans was apparent on some bats within 8 weeks following the introduction of unexposed bats to these environments, and mortality from WNS was confirmed by histopathology at both sites 14 weeks following introduction. These results indicate that environmental exposure to P. destructans is sufficient to cause the infection and mortality associated with WNS in naive bats, which increases the probability of winter colony extirpation and complicates conservation efforts.

Nature↗
USGS2005

Workgroup report: Drinking-water nitrate and health - Recent findings and research needs

Human alteration of the nitrogen cycle has resulted in steadily accumulating nitrate in our water resources. The U.S. maximum contaminant level and World Health Organization guidelines for nitrate in drinking water were promulgated to protect infants from developing methemoglobinemia, an acute condition. Some scientists have recently suggested that the regulatory limit for nitrate is overly conservative; however, they have not thoroughly considered chronic health outcomes. In August 2004, a symposium on drinking-water nitrate and health was held at the International Society for Environmental Epidemiology meeting to evaluate nitrate exposures and associated health effects in relation to the current regulatory limit. The contribution of drinking-water nitrate toward endogenous formation of N-nitroso compounds was evaluated with a focus toward identifying subpopulations with increased rates of nitrosation. Adverse health effects may be the result of a complex interaction of the amount of nitrate ingested, the concomitant ingestion of nitrosation cofactors and precursors, and specific medical conditions that increase nitrosation. Workshop participants concluded that more experimental studies are needed and that a particularly fruitful approach may be to conduct epidemiologic studies among susceptible subgroups with increased endogenous nitrosation. The few epidemiologic studies that have evaluated intake of nitrosation precursors and/or nitrosation inhibitors have observed elevated risks for colon cancer and neural tube defects associated with drinking-water nitrate concentrations below the regulatory limit. The role of drinking-water nitrate exposure as a risk factor for specific cancers, reproductive outcomes, and other chronic health effects must be studied more thoroughly before changes to the regulatory level for nitrate in drinking water can be considered.

Environmental Health Perspectives↗
USGS2006

Environmental Effects of Agricultural Practices - Summary of Workshop Held on June 14-16, 2005

A meeting between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and its partners was held June 14-16, 2005, in Denver, CO, to discuss science issues and needs related to agricultural practices. The goals of the meeting were to learn about the (1) effects of agricultural practices on the environment and (2) tools for identifying and quantifying those effects. Achieving these goals required defining the environmental concerns, developing scientific actions to address assessment of environmental effects, and creating collaborations to identify future research requirements and technical gaps. Five areas of concern were discussed-emerging compounds; water availability; genetically modified organisms; effects of conservation practices on ecosystems; and data, methods, and tools for assessing effects of agricultural practices.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2008

Low-flow characteristics and regionalization of low-flow characteristics for selected streams in Arkansas

Water use in Arkansas has increased dramatically in recent years. Since 1990, the use of water for all purposes except power generation has increased 53 percent (4,004 cubic feet per second in 1990 to 6,113 cubic feet per second in 2005). The biggest users are agriculture (90 percent), municipal water supply (4 percent) and industrial supply (2 percent). As the population of the State continues to grow, so does the demand for the State’s water resources. The low-flow characteristics of a stream ultimately affect its utilization by humans. Specific information on the low-flow characteristics of streams is essential to State water-management agencies such as the Arkansas Department of Environmental Quality, the Arkansas Natural Resources Commission, and the Arkansas Game and Fish Commission when dealing with problems related to irrigation, municipal and industrial water supplies, fish and wildlife conservation, and dilution of waste. Low-flow frequency data are of particular value to management agencies responsible for the development and management of the State’s water resources. This report contains the low-flow characteristics for 70 active continuous-streamflow record gaging stations, 59 inactive continuous-streamflow record stations, and 101 partial-record gaging stations. These characteristics are the annual 7-day, 10-year low flow and the annual 7-day, 2-year low flow, and the seasonal, bimonthly, and monthly 7-day, 10-year low flow for the 129 active and inactive continuous-streamflow record and 101 partial-record gaging stations. Low-flow characteristics were computed on the basis of streamflow data for the period of record through September 2005 for the continuous-streamflow record and partial-record streamflow gaging stations. The low-flow characteristics of these continuous- and partial-record streamflow gaging stations were utilized in a regional regression analysis to produce equations for estimating the annual, seasonal, bimonthly, and monthly (November through April) 7-day, 10-year low flows and the annual 7-day, 2-year low flow for ungaged streams in the western two-thirds of Arkansas.

Arkansas↗
USGS2002

Threats to desert tortoise populations: a critical review of the literature

Decision in resource management are generally based on a combination of sociopolitical, economic, and environmental factors, and may be biased by personal values. These three components often contradict each other resulting in controversy. Controversies can usually be reduced when solid scientific evidence is used to support or refute a decision. However, it is important to recognize that data often do little to alter antagonists' positions when differences in values are the bases if the dispute. But, supporting data can make the decision more defensible, both legally and ethically, especially if the data supporting all opposing viewpoints are included in the decision-making process. Resource management decisions must be made using the best scientific information currently available. However, scientific data vary in two important measures of quality: reliability and validity. The reliability of the data is a measure of the degree to which the observations or conclusion can be repeated. Validity of the data is a measure of the degree to which the observation or conclusion reflects what actually occurs in nature. How the data are collected strongly affects the reliability of validity of ecological conclusions that can be made. Research data potentially relevant to management come from different sources, and the source often provides clues to the reliability and, to a certain extent, validity of data. Understanding the quality of data being used to make management decisions helps to separate the philosophical or value-based aspects of arguments from the objective ones, thus helping to clarify the decisions and judgments that need to be made. The West Mojave Plan is a multispecies, bioregional plan for the management of natural resources within a 9.4 million-acre area of the Mojave Desert in California. The plan addresses the legal requirements for the recovery of the desert tortoise ( Gopherus agazzizii ), a threatened species, but also covers an additional approximately 80 species of plants and animals assigned special status by the Bureau of Land Management, U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and California Department of Fish and Game. Within the planning area, 28 separate jurisdictions (counties, cities, towns, military installations, etc.) seek programmatic prescriptions that will facilitate streamlined environmental review, result in expedited authorization for development projects, and protect listed and unlisted species into the foreseeable future to avoid or minimize conflicts between proposed development and species' conservation and recovery. All of the scientific data available concerning the biology and management of these approximately 80 species and their habitats must be evaluated to develop a scientifically credible plan. This document provides an overview and evaluation of the knowledge of the major threats to the persistence and recovery of desert tortoise populations. I was specifically asked to evaluate the scientific veracity of the data and reports available. I summarize the data presently available with particular focus on the West Mojave Desert, evaluate the scientific integrity of the data. and identify major gaps in the available knowledge. I do not attempt to provide in-depth details on each study or threat; for more details I encourage the reader to consult the individual papers or reports city throughout this report (many of which are available at most university libraries and at the West Mojave Plan office in Riverside, California). I also do not attempt to characterize or evaluate the past or present management actions, except where they have direct bearing on evaluation of threats, nor do I attempt, for the most part, to acquire, generate, or evaluate new or existing, but uninterpreted data.

California↗
USGS2019

Effects of climate change on habitat and connectivity for populations of a vulnerable, endemic salamander in Iran

Habitat loss and fragmentation are among the biggest threats to amphibian populations and anthropogenic climate change may exacerbate these. The response of Iran's amphibians to climate change is uncertain and yet making an accurate prediction of how the species will respond is critical for conservation. We assessed how expected future climate scenarios before the years 2050 and 2070 might influence the geographic distribution and habitat connectivity of the Lorestan Mountain Newt (Neurergus kaiseri). We examined presence data (2010–2018) of the species according to environmental and anthropogenic factors, and created an ensemble model of habitat suitability based on eight species distribution models (SDMs). Then, we used the concept of circuit theory to estimate potential linkages between the habitat patches. We applied the ensemble calibrated models and quantified spatial connectivity to assess the influence of climate change on the species range for the years 2050 and 2070 under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) of three general circulation models (GCMs). Models using current climate predicted that 6.8% of the 267,609 km2 study area has suitable conditions for the species, but only about 7% of these climatically suitable landscapes are covered by conservation areas. Temperature and precipitation-related climatic variables made the largest contribution to the distribution model. Under projected climate conditions, we found a decline of 56–98% of the suitable habitat and predicted a potential for distributional shifts towards higher elevations by 2050 and 2070. Although there is relatively good connectivity between many habitat patches today, models predict that suitable areas available to the newt will become increasingly fragmented under projected climate change scenarios. Our findings support the hypothesis that projected climatic shifts will negatively influence suitable habitats of amphibians and likely cause upward shifts in elevation in range of some species. Identifying potentially suitable habitats and important linkages between habitat patches under different climate scenarios are crucial steps in conservation planning for the Lorestan Mountain Newt.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗