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At least 901 records · Page 50Linked to original sources
USGS1999

The evolutionary history of steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) along the US Pacific Coast: Developing a conservation strategy using genetic diversity

Changes in genetic variation across a species range may indicate patterns of population structure resulting from past ecological and demographic events that are otherwise difficult to infer and thus provide insight into evolutionary development. Genetic data is used, drawn from 11 microsatellite loci amplified from anadromous steelhead ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) sampled throughout its range in the eastern Pacific Ocean, to explore population structure at the southern edge in California. Steelhead populations in this region represent less than 10% of their reported historic abundance and survive in very small populations found in fragmented habitats. Genetic data derived from three independent molecular systems (allozymes, mtDNA, and microsatellites) have shown that the southernmost populations are characterized by a relatively high genetic diversity. Two hypothetical models supporting genetic population substructure such as observed were considered: (1) range expansion with founder-flush effects and subsequent population decline; (2) a second Pleistocene radiation from the Gulf of California. Using genetic and climatic data, a second Pleistocene refugium contributing to a southern ecotone seems more feasible. These data support strong conservation measures based on genetic diversity be developed to ensure the survival of this uniquely diverse gene pool.

ICES Journal of Marine Science↗
USGS2014

Applying threshold concepts to conservation management of dryland ecosystems: Case studies on the Colorado Plateau

Ecosystems may occupy functionally distinct alternative states, some of which are more or less desirable from a management standpoint. Transitions from state to state are usually associated with a particular trigger or sequence of triggers, such as the addition or subtraction of a disturbance. Transitions are often not linear, rather it is common to see an abrupt transition come about even though the trigger increases only incrementally; these are examples of threshold behaviors. An ideal monitoring program, such as the National Park Service’s Inventory and Monitoring Program, would quantify triggers, and be able to inform managers when measurements of a trigger are approaching a threshold so that management action can avoid an unwanted state transition. Unfortunately, both triggers and the threshold points at which state transitions occur are generally only partially known. Using case studies, we advance a general procedure to help identify triggers and estimate where threshold dynamics may occur. Our procedure is as follows: (1) Operationally define the ecosystem type being considered; we suggest that the ecological site concept of the Natural Resource Conservation Service is a useful system, (2) Using all available a priori knowledge to develop a state-and-transition model (STM), which defines possible ecosystem states, plausible transitions among them and likely triggers, (3) Validate the STM by verifying the existence of its states to the greatest degree possible, (4) Use the STM model to identify transitions and triggers likely to be detectable by a monitoring program, and estimate to the greatest degree possible the value of a measurable indicator of a trigger at the point that a state transition is imminent (tipping point), and values that may indicate when management intervention should be considered (assessment points). We illustrate two different methods for attaining these goals using a data-rich case study in Canyonlands National Park, and a data-poor case study in Wupatki National Monument. In the data-rich case, STMs are validated and revised, and tipping and assessment points are estimated using statistical analysis of data. In the data-poor case, we develop an iterative expert opinion survey approach to validate the degree of confidence in an STM, revise the model, identify lack of confidence in specific model components, and create reasonable first approximations of tipping and assessment points, which can later be refined when more data are available. Our goal should be to develop the best set of models possible given the level of information available to support decisions, which is often not much. The approach presented here offers a flexible means of achieving this goal, and determining specific research areas in need of study.

Book chapter↗
USGS2007

Dams, floodplain land use, and riparian forest conservation in the semiarid Upper Colorado River Basin, USA

Land and water resource development can independently eliminate riparian plant communities, including Fremont cottonwood forest (CF), a major contributor to ecosystem structure and functioning in semiarid portions of the American Southwest. We tested whether floodplain development was linked to river regulation in the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) by relating the extent of five developed land-cover categories as well as CF and other natural vegetation to catchment reservoir capacity, changes in total annual and annual peak discharge, and overall level of mainstem hydrologic alteration (small, moderate, or large) in 26 fourth-order subbasins. We also asked whether CF appeared to be in jeopardy at a regional level. We classified 51% of the 57,000 ha of alluvial floodplain examined along >2600 km of mainstem rivers as CF and 36% as developed. The proportion developed was unrelated to the level of mainstem hydrologic alteration. The proportion classified as CF was also independent of the level of hydrologic alteration, a result we attribute to confounding effects from development, the presence of time lags, and contrasting effects from flow alteration in different subbasins. Most CF (68% by area) had a sparse canopy (???5% cover), and stands with >50% canopy cover occupied <1% of the floodplain in 15 subbasins. We suggest that CF extent in the UCRB will decline markedly in the future, when the old trees on floodplains now disconnected from the river die and large areas change from CF to non-CF categories. Attention at a basinwide scale to the multiple factors affecting cottonwood patch dynamics is needed to assure conservation of these riparian forests. ?? 2007 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2011

Balancing energy development and conservation: A method utilizing species distribution models

Alternative energy development is increasing, potentially leading to negative impacts on wildlife populations already stressed by other factors. Resource managers require a scientifically based methodology to balance energy development and species conservation, so we investigated modeling habitat suitability using Maximum Entropy to develop maps that could be used with other information to help site energy developments. We selected one species of concern, the Lesser Prairie-Chicken (LPCH; Tympanuchus pallidicinctus ) found on the southern Great Plains of North America, as our case study. LPCH populations have been declining and are potentially further impacted by energy development. We used LPCH lek locations in the state of Kansas along with several environmental and anthropogenic parameters to develop models that predict the probability of lek occurrence across the landscape. The models all performed well as indicated by the high test area under the curve (AUC) scores (all >0.9). The inclusion of anthropogenic parameters in models resulted in slightly better performance based on AUC values, indicating that anthropogenic features may impact LPCH lek habitat suitability. Given the positive model results, this methodology may provide additional guidance in designing future survey protocols, as well as siting of energy development in areas of marginal or unsuitable habitat for species of concern. This technique could help to standardize and quantify the impacts various developments have upon at-risk species.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2012

Sylvatic plague vaccine: A new tool for conservation of threatened and endangered species?

Plague, a disease caused by Yersinia pestis introduced into North America about 100 years ago, is devastating to prairie dogs and the highly endangered black-footed ferret. Current attempts to control plague in these species have historically relied on insecticidal dusting of prairie dog burrows to kill the fleas that spread the disease. Although successful in curtailing outbreaks in most instances, this method of plague control has significant limitations. Alternative approaches to plague management are being tested, including vaccination. Currently, all black-footed ferret kits released for reintroduction are vaccinated against plague with an injectable protein vaccine, and even wild-born kits are captured and vaccinated at some locations. In addition, a novel, virally vectored, oral vaccine to prevent plague in wild prairie dogs has been developed and will soon be tested as an alternative, preemptive management tool. If demonstrated to be successful, oral vaccination of selected prairie dog populations could decrease the occurrence of plague epizootics in key locations, thereby reducing the source of bacteria while avoiding the indiscriminate environmental effects of dusting. Just as rabies in wild carnivores has largely been controlled through an active surveillance and oral vaccination program, we believe an integrated plague management strategy would be similarly enhanced with the addition of a cost-effective, bait-delivered, sylvatic plague vaccine for prairie dogs. Control of plague in prairie dogs, and potentially other rodents, would significantly advance prairie dog conservation and black-footed ferret recovery.

Arizona, Colorado, Kansas, Montana, Nebraska, Nort↗
USGS2017

Landscape- and local-scale habitat influences on occupancy and detection probability of stream-dwelling crayfish: Implications for conservation

Crayfish are ecologically important in freshwater systems worldwide and are imperiled in North America and globally. We sought to examine landscape- to local-scale environmental variables related to occupancy and detection probability of a suite of stream-dwelling crayfish species. We used a quantitative kickseine method to sample crayfish presence at 102 perennial stream sites with eight surveys per site. We modeled occupancy (psi) and detection probability ( P ) and local- and landscape-scale environmental covariates. We developed a set of a priori candidate models for each species and ranked models using (Q)AICc. Detection probabilities and occupancy estimates differed among crayfish species with Orconectes eupunctus , O. marchandi , and Cambarus hubbsi being relatively rare (psi < 0.20) with moderate (0.46–0.60) to high (0.81) detection probability and O. punctimanus and O. ozarkae being relatively common (psi > 0.60) with high detection probability (0.81). Detection probability was often related to local habitat variables current velocity, depth, or substrate size. Important environmental variables for crayfish occupancy were species dependent but were mainly landscape variables such as stream order, geology, slope, topography, and land use. Landscape variables strongly influenced crayfish occupancy and should be considered in future studies and conservation plans.

Arkansas, Missouri↗
USGS2009

Conservation of northern bobwhite on private lands in Georgia, USA under uncertainty about landscape-level habitat effects

Large-scale habitat enhancement programs for birds are becoming more widespread, however, most lack monitoring to resolve uncertainties and enhance program impact over time. Georgia?s Bobwhite Quail Initiative (BQI) is a competitive, proposal-based system that provides incentives to landowners to establish habitat for northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus). Using data from monitoring conducted in the program?s first years (1999?2001), we developed alternative hierarchical models to predict bobwhite abundance in response to program habitat modifications on local and regional scales. Effects of habitat and habitat management on bobwhite population response varied among geographical scales, but high measurement variability rendered the specific nature of these scaled effects equivocal. Under some models, BQI had positive impact at both local farm scales (1, 9 km2), particularly when practice acres were clustered, whereas other credible models indicated that bird response did not depend on spatial arrangement of practices. Thus, uncertainty about landscape-level effects of management presents a challenge to program managers who must decide which proposals to accept. We demonstrate that optimal selection decisions can be made despite this uncertainty and that uncertainty can be reduced over time, with consequent improvement in management efficacy. However, such an adaptive approach to BQI program implementation would require the reestablishment of monitoring of bobwhite abundance, an effort for which funding was discontinued in 2002. For landscape-level conservation programs generally, our approach demonstrates the value in assessing multiple scales of impact of habitat modification programs, and it reveals the utility of addressing management uncertainty through multiple decision models and system monitoring.

Landscape Ecology↗
USGS2016

Past and predicted future effects of housing growth on open space conservation opportunity areas and habitat connectivity around National Wildlife Refuges

Context Housing growth can alter suitability of matrix habitats around protected areas, strongly affecting movements of organisms and, consequently, threatening connectivity of protected area networks. Objectives Our goal was to quantify distribution and growth of housing around the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wildlife Refuge System. This is important information for conservation planning, particularly given promotion of habitat connectivity as a climate change adaptation measure. Methods We quantified housing growth from 1940 to 2000 and projected future growth to 2030 within three distances from refuges, identifying very low housing density open space, “opportunity areas” (contiguous areas with <6.17 houses/km 2 ), both nationally and by USFWS administrative region. Additionally, we quantified number and area of habitat corridors within these opportunity areas in 2000. Results Our results indicated that the number and area of open space opportunity areas generally decreased with increasing distance from refuges and with the passage of time. Furthermore, total area in habitat corridors was much lower than in opportunity areas. In addition, the number of corridors sometimes exceeded number of opportunity areas as a result of habitat fragmentation, indicating corridors are likely vulnerable to land use change. Finally, regional differences were strong and indicated some refuges may have experienced so much housing growth already that they are effectively too isolated to adapt to climate change, while others may require extensive habitat restoration work. Conclusions Wildlife refuges are increasingly isolated by residential housing development, potentially constraining the movement of wildlife and, therefore, their ability to adapt to a changing climate.

Landscape Ecology↗
USGS2012

Incorporating incorporating economic models into seasonal pool conservation planning

Massachusetts, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Maine have adopted regulatory zones around seasonal (vernal) pools to conserve terrestrial habitat for pool-breeding amphibians. Most amphibians require access to distinct seasonal habitats in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems because of their complex life histories. These habitat requirements make them particularly vulnerable to land uses that destroy habitat or limit connectivity (or permeability) among habitats. Regulatory efforts focusing on breeding pools without consideration of terrestrial habitat needs will not ensure the persistence of pool-breeding amphibians. We used GIS to combine a discrete-choice, parcel-scale economic model of land conversion with a landscape permeability model based on known habitat requirements of wood frogs ( Lithobates sylvaticus ) in Maine (USA) to examine permeability among habitat elements for alternative future scenarios. The economic model predicts future landscapes under different subdivision open space and vernal pool regulatory requirements. Our model showed that even “no build” permit zones extending 76 m (250 ft) outward from the pool edge were insufficient to assure permeability among required habitat elements. Furthermore, effectiveness of permit zones may be inconsistent due to interactions with other growth management policies, highlighting the need for local and state planning for the long-term persistence of pool-breeding amphibians in developing landscapes.

Maine↗
USGS2018

Toward a resilience-based conservation strategy for wetlands in Puerto Rico: Meeting challenges posed by environmental change

Designing conservation strategies in human-dominated landscapes is challenging, owing to complex human-natural systems and evolving societal values. To meet this challenge, a robust, adaptive strategy should have a process for flexible implementation of incremental actions. We describe a hypothetical example for the Rio Grande de Arecibo watershed and coastal wetlands in Puerto Rico to address the first component. The process begins by identifying shared stakeholder objectives. This process benefits from a review of foundational research and knowledge base that includes global forcings and vulnerability of resources of interest. Forcings include climate change and pervasive urban sprawl. We focus on two taxonomic groups with differing life histories but strong dependence on water resource dynamics, another resource valued by humans. We stipulate objectives and multiple actions, but focus on those pertaining to hydro-management as the common thread in our example. We advanced two decision contexts of contrasting complexity, illustrated links between objectives and actions, and highlighted trade-offs triggered by varying resource valuation. Our focus was to highlight various components necessary to frame a resilience-based strategy, but we cannot overemphasize the importance of accommodating institutional and stakeholder changing priorities and values to ensure its successful implementation.

Puerto Rico↗
USGS2022

The potential of Prairie Pothole wetlands as an agricultural conservation practice: A synthesis of empirical data

Nutrient pollution causing harmful algal blooms and eutrophication is a major threat to aquatic systems. Throughout North America, agricultural activities are the largest source of excess nutrients entering these systems. Agricultural intensification has also been a driver in the historical removal of depressional wetlands, contributing to increased hydrological connectivity across watersheds, and moving more nutrient runoff into terminal waterbodies such as the Laurentian Great Lakes and Gulf of Mexico. The Prairie Pothole Region of North America (PPR) supports grassland, cropland, wetland, and riverine systems that connect to the Missouri, Mississippi, and Red River Basins. There is a need to synthesize scientific understanding to guide more targeted conservation efforts and better understand knowledge gaps. We reviewed 200 empirical studies and synthesized results from across a minimum of 9 and maximum of 43 wetland basins (depending on the variable data available). We found an average wetland removal rate of nitrate and phosphate of 53% and 68%, respectively. Literature also showed sedimentation rates to be twice as high in wetland basins situated within croplands compared to grasslands. Our synthesis enhances understanding of nutrient processing in wetlands of the PPR and highlights the need for more empirical field-based studies throughout the region.

Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, North Dakota, South Dako↗
USGS2013

Stress, deformation, conservation, and rheology: a survey of key concepts in continuum mechanics

This chapter provides a brief survey of key concepts in continuum mechanics. It focuses on the fundamental physical concepts that underlie derivations of the mathematical formulations of stress, strain, hydraulic head, pore-fluid pressure, and conservation equations. It then shows how stresses are linked to strain and rates of distortion through some special cases of idealized material behaviors. The goal is to equip the reader with a physical understanding of key mathematical formulations that anchor continuum mechanics in order to better understand theoretical studies published in geomorphology.

Book chapter↗
USGS2022

Teams, networks, and networks of networks advancing our understanding and conservation of inland waters

Networks are defined as groups of interconnected people and things, and by this definition, networks play a major role in the science of inland waters. In this article, we bring the latest social network research to understand and improve inland waters science and conservation outcomes. What we found is that relationships matter. Different teams and networks have different objectives and lifespans. Consider this: Data collection networks may persist for decades, whereas knowledge-generating teams may exist only for months. The structure of connections in a network determines how easily information or resources can flow or pass through a network, which then influences the ability of the network to accomplish work like creating and applying new knowledge, integrating knowledge across fields, or coordinating collective action. When independent networks designed around different purposes become connected to achieve new goals, a network of networks is formed, where each layer is a unique network defined by social, geographic, and temporal boundaries and distinct types of connections. This structure has a lot of potential for transformative work, but is especially susceptible to failure if one of the cross-network connections fails. From the smallest of inland waters research teams to the largest, multi-institutional, international collaborations, an understanding of how the connections between people are created and maintained can be used to set up conditions for success.

Book chapter↗
USGS2015

Successful mitigation of viral disease based on a delayed exposure rearing strategy at a large-scale steelhead trout conservation hatchery

In 2009, the largest steelhead trout conservation hatchery in the state of Idaho, Dworshak National Fish Hatchery (NFH), lost over 50% of the juvenile steelhead trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) population being reared for release. The causative agent of this high mortality was the viral pathogen infectious hematopoietic necrosis virus (IHNV). This was neither the first nor the worst epidemic of IHNV to occur at the hatchery, but it was the worst in over a decade. Genetic analysis of IHNV isolates taken from juveniles suffering epidemic IHN disease in 2009 revealed that the virus was of the M group of IHNV viruses, known to have high virulence for trout. The water supply for steelhead trout rearing at Dworshak NFH is untreated water taken directly from the Clearwater River. Further genetic analysis of IHNV isolates from adults spawned in 2009 indicated that adult steelhead trout in the river (in the hatchery water supply) were the most probable transmission source for the epidemic IHN disease in the juvenile fish. Previously, Dworshak NFH had been able to gain access to reservoir water from behind the Dworshak Dam for nursery egg incubation and the earliest stage of fry rearing, which nearly eliminated incidence of IHN disease in that stage of rearing. Additionally, the nearby Clearwater State Fish Hatchery (SFH), which operates entirely with reservoir water, has never had a case of IHN disease in juvenile steelhead trout. Therefore, staff at Dworshak NFH sought and obtained access to a limited supply of reservoir water for the first few months of outdoor rearing of juvenile steelhead trout, beginning in 2010. This strategy delayed the exposure of juvenile steelhead trout to river water for several months. The effects of this program change were: drastic reduction in IHN disease in juvenile steelhead trout; interruption in the transmission of highly virulent M group IHNV from adult steelhead trout; no interruption in the transmission of low virulent U group IHNV from adult Chinook salmon; and a shift of IHNV types in adult fish spawned at Dworshak NFH in subsequent years from M to U group viruses. While juvenile steelhead trout may still be infected via exposure to IHNV in river water, the disruption of virulent M group IHNV has been successful in dramatically reducing IHN disease in steelhead trout every year since 2010.

Idaho↗
USGS2023

Plague mitigation for prairie dog and black-footed ferret conservation: Degree and duration of flea control with 0.005% fipronil grain bait

Sylvatic plague, a primarily flea-borne zoonosis, is a significant threat to prairie dogs ( Cynomys spp., PDs) and their specialized predators, endangered black-footed ferrets ( Mustela nigripes , BFFs). Host-fed fipronil baits have proven effective in controlling fleas on PDs for the purposes of plague mitigation and BFF conservation. Currently, annual treatments are the norm. We tested the long-term efficacy of fipronil bait treatments with black-tailed PDs ( C. ludovicianus , BTPDs) and BFFs in South Dakota, USA. During 2018–2020, we provided BTPDs on 21 sites with grain bait formula, laced with 0.005% fipronil (50 ​mg/kg); 18 non-treated sites functioned as baselines. In 2020–2022, we live-trapped, anesthetized, and combed BTPDs for fleas. Flea control was significant for at least 639–885 days. Flea abundance on the treated sites was < 0.5 fleas/BTPD for ∼750 days. During 2020–2022, we sampled BFFs for fleas on 4 BTPD colonies treated with fipronil grain bait and 8 non-treated colonies. Flea control was significant with BFFs, but flea abundance began to rebound within ∼240 days post-treatment. When feasible, the combination of insecticide treatments, such as fipronil baits, and BFF vaccination against plague provide a “two-pronged” protection approach for these endangered carnivores. If fipronil bait treatments are less effective with predatory BFFs than PDs, as found herein, the “two-pronged” approach might be used to protect BFFs and biennial fipronil bait treatments might be used to protect PDs. If BFF vaccination is not possible, or few BFFs can be vaccinated, annual fipronil bait treatments might be used as a precaution to protect BFFs. Flea densities might be surveyed to determine when/where more frequent treatments seem useful.

South Dakota↗
USGS2006

Predictable hotspots and foraging habitat of the endangered short-tailed albatross (Phoebastria albatrus) in the North Pacific: Implications for conservation

The short-tailed albatross ( Phoebastria albatrus ) is a rare and endangered seabird that ranges widely over the northern North Pacific. Populations are slowly recovering but birds face several threats at sea, in particular the incidental capture of birds in long-line fisheries. Conservation efforts are hampered by a lack of information about the at-sea distribution of this species, especially knowledge of where it may predictably co-occur with long-line fishing effort. During 18 years of transiting the Aleutian Islands Unit of the Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge on a research vessel, we observed short-tailed albatross on 65 occasions. They were consistently observed near Ingenstrem Rocks (Buldir Pass) in the western Aleutians and near Seguam Pass in the central Aleutians. Based on the oceanographic characteristics of the locations where we saw most of the birds, we hypothesized that short-tailed albatross &ldquo;hotspots&rdquo; were located where tidal currents and steep bottom topography generate strong vertical mixing along the Aleutian Archipelago. As a test of this hypothesis, we analyzed a database containing 1432 opportunistic observations of 2463 short-tailed albatross at sea in the North Pacific. These data showed that short-tailed albatross were closely associated with shelf-edge habitats throughout the northern Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea. In addition to Ingenstrem Rocks and Seguam Pass, important hotspots for short-tailed albatross in the Aleutians included Near Strait, Samalga Pass, and the shelf-edge south of Umnak/Unalaska islands. In the Bering Sea, hotspots were located along margins of Zhemchug, St. Matthews and Pervenets canyons. Because these short-tailed albatross hotspots are predictable, they are also protectable by regulation of threatening activities at local spatial scales.

Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Ocea↗
USGS2016

Effects of model complexity and priors on estimation using sequential importance sampling/resampling for species conservation

We examined the effects of complexity and priors on the accuracy of models used to estimate ecological and observational processes, and to make predictions regarding population size and structure. State-space models are useful for estimating complex, unobservable population processes and making predictions about future populations based on limited data. To better understand the utility of state space models in evaluating population dynamics, we used them in a Bayesian framework and compared the accuracy of models with differing complexity, with and without informative priors using sequential importance sampling/resampling (SISR). Count data were simulated for 25 years using known parameters and observation process for each model. We used kernel smoothing to reduce the effect of particle depletion, which is common when estimating both states and parameters with SISR. Models using informative priors estimated parameter values and population size with greater accuracy than their non-informative counterparts. While the estimates of population size and trend did not suffer greatly in models using non-informative priors, the algorithm was unable to accurately estimate demographic parameters. This model framework provides reasonable estimates of population size when little to no information is available; however, when information on some vital rates is available, SISR can be used to obtain more precise estimates of population size and process. Incorporating model complexity such as that required by structured populations with stage-specific vital rates affects precision and accuracy when estimating latent population variables and predicting population dynamics. These results are important to consider when designing monitoring programs and conservation efforts requiring management of specific population segments.

Ecological Modelling↗
USGS2018

Mangrove forests in a rapidly changing world: Global change impacts and conservation opportunities along the Gulf of Mexico coast

Mangrove forests are highly-productive intertidal wetlands that support many ecosystem goods and services. In addition to providing fish and wildlife habitat, mangrove forests improve water quality, provide seafood, reduce coastal erosion, supply forest products, support coastal food webs, minimize flooding impacts, and support high rates of carbon sequestration. Despite their tremendous societal value, mangrove forests are threatened by many aspects of global change. Here, we examine the effects of global change on mangrove forests along the Gulf of Mexico coast, which is a valuable region for advancing understanding of global change impacts because the region spans multiple ecologically-relevant abiotic gradients that are representative of other mangrove transition zones across the world. We consider the historical and anticipated future responses of mangrove forests to the following aspects of global change: temperature change, precipitation change, accelerated sea-level rise, tropical cyclone intensification, elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide, eutrophication, invasive non-native species, and land use change. For each global change factor, we provide an initial global perspective but focus primarily on the three countries that border the Gulf of Mexico: United States, Mexico, and Cuba. The interactive effects of global change can have large ecological consequences, and we provide examples that highlight their importance. While some interactions between global change drivers can lead to mangrove mortality and loss, others can lead to mangrove expansion at the expense of other ecosystems. Finally, we discuss strategies for using restoration and conservation to maximize the adaptive capacity of mangrove forests to global change. To ensure that the ecosystem goods and services provided by mangrove forests continue to be available for future generations, there is a pressing need to better protect, manage, and restore mangrove forests as well as the adjacent ecosystems that provide opportunities for adaptation in response to global change.

Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science↗