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At least 901 records · Page 50Linked to original sources
USGS2021

Predicted vulnerability of carbon in permafrost peatlands With future climate change and permafrost thaw in western Canada

Climate warming in high-latitude regions is thawing carbon-rich permafrost soils, which can release carbon to the atmosphere and enhance climate warming. Using a coupled model of long-term peatland dynamics (Holocene Peat Model, HPM-Arctic), we quantify the potential loss of carbon with future climate warming for six sites with differing climates and permafrost histories in Northwestern Canada. We compared the net carbon balance at 2100 CE resulting from new productivity and the decomposition of active layer and newly thawed permafrost peats under RCP8.5 as a high-end constraint. Modeled net carbon losses ranged from −3.0 kg C m −2 (net loss) to +0.1 kg C m −2 (net gain) between 2015 and 2100. Losses of newly thawed permafrost peat comprised 0.2%–25% (median: 1.6%) of “old” C loss, which were related to the residence time of peat in the active layer before being incorporated into the permafrost, peat temperature, and presence of permafrost. The largest C loss was from the permafrost-free site, not from permafrost sites. C losses were greatest from depths of 0.2–1.0 m. New C added to the profile through net primary productivity between 2015 and 2100 offset ∼40% to >100% of old C losses across the sites. Differences between modeled active layer deepening and flooding following permafrost thaw resulted in very small differences in net C loss by 2100, illustrating the important role of present-day conditions and permafrost aggradation history in controlling net C loss.

western Canada↗
USGS2017

The impact of late Holocene land-use change, climate variability, and sea-level rise on carbon storage in tidal freshwater wetlands on the southeastern United States Coastal Plain

This study examines Holocene impacts of changes in climate, land use, and sea-level rise (SLR) on sediment accretion, carbon accumulation rates (CAR), and vegetation along a transect of tidal freshwater forested wetlands (TFFW) to oligohaline marsh along the Waccamaw River, South Carolina (4 sites) and along the Savannah River, Georgia (4 sites). We use pollen, plant macrofossils, accretion, and CAR from cores, spanning the last 1500-6000 years to test the hypothesis that TFFW have remained stable throughout the late Holocene and that marshes transitioned from TFFW during elevated SLR during the Medieval Climate Anomaly, with further transformation resulting from colonial land-use change. Results show low and stable accretion and CAR through much of the Holocene, despite moderate changes associated with Holocene paleoclimate. In all records, the largest observed change occurred within the last ~400 years, driven by colonial land clearance, shifting terrigenous sediment into riparian wetlands, resulting in order-of-magnitude increases in accretion and C accumulation. The oligohaline marshes transitioned from TFFW ~300-500 years ago, coincident with colonial land clearance. Post-colonial decreases in CAR and accretion occur because of watershed reforestation over the last century. All sites show evidence of recent (decades to century) swamp forest decline due to increasing salinity and tidal inundation from SLR. This study suggests that allochthonous sediment input during colonialization helped maintain TFFW, but that current SLR rates are too high for TFFW to persist, although higher accretion rates in oligohaline marshes increases the resilience of tidal wetlands as they transition from TFFW to marsh.

Georgia, South Carolina↗
USGS2017

Reconstructing the response of C3 and C4 plants to decadal-scale climate change during the late Pleistocene in southern Illinois using isotopic analyses of calcified rootlets

The ??13C and ??18O values of well-preserved carbonate rhizoliths (CRs) provide detailed insights into changes in the abundance of C3 and C4 plants in response to approximately decadal-scale changes in growing-season climate. We performed stable isotope analyses on 35-40 CRs sampled at 1-cm intervals from an 18-cm-thick paleosol formed in southern Illinois during Wisconsin interstadial 2. Minimum ??13C values show little variation with depth, whereas maximum values vary dramatically, and average values show noticeable variability; maximum ??18O values vary less than the minimum ??18O values. These findings indicate that a diverse and stable C3 flora with a limited number of C4 grass species prevailed during this interval, and suggest that the maximum growing-season temperatures were relatively stable, but minimum growing-season temperatures varied considerably. Two general patterns characterize the relationships between the ??13C and ??18O values obtained from the 1-cm samples. In some cases, low ??13C values correspond to low ??18O values and high ??13C values correspond to high ??18O values, suggesting that cooler growing-season temperatures favored C3 and warmer growing-season temperatures favored C4 plants. In other cases, low ??13C values correspond to high ??18O values, likely suggesting that wetter growing-season conditions were favorable to C3 plants. The high density of well-preserved CRs in this paleosol provides a unique opportunity to study detailed ecological responses to high-resolution variability in growing-season climate. ?? 2006 University of Washington.

Quaternary Research↗
USGS2016

Climate-change signals in national atmospheric deposition program precipitation data

National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP)/National Trends Network precipitation type, snow-season duration, and annual timing of selected chemical wet-deposition maxima vary with latitude and longitude within a 35-year (1979–2013) data record for the contiguous United States and Alaska. From the NADP data collected within the region bounded by 35.6645°–48.782° north latitude and 124°–68° west longitude, similarities in latitudinal and longitudinal patterns of changing snow-season duration, fraction of annual precipitation recorded as snow, and the timing of chemical wet-deposition maxima, suggest that the chemical climate of the atmosphere is linked to physical changes in climate. Total annual precipitation depth has increased 4–6 % while snow season duration has decreased from approximately 7 to 21 days across most of the USA, except in higher elevation regions where it has increased by as much as 21 days. Snow-season precipitation is increasingly comprised of snow, but annually total precipitation is increasingly comprised of liquid precipitation. Meanwhile, maximum ammonium deposition occurs as much as 27 days earlier, and the maximum nitrate: sulfate concentration ratio in wet-deposition occurs approximately 10–21 days earlier in the year. The maximum crustal (calcium + magnesium + potassium) cation deposition occurs 2–35 days earlier in the year. The data suggest that these shifts in the timing of atmospheric wet deposition are linked to a warming climate, but the ecological consequences are uncertain.

Climate Dynamics↗
USGS1984

Preliminary assessment of climatic change during Late Wisconsin time, southern Great Basin and vicinity, Arizona, California, and Nevada

Nine plant macrofossil assemblages from the Eleana Range-2 packrat (Neotoma sp.) midden span 6,500 radiocarbon years and record local vegetational changes in the southern Great Basin of Nevada during the last one-half of the Late Wisconsin glacial age. Climatic reconstructions were developed to account for these changes. During the late full glacial episode (17,000 to 15,000 radiocarbon years before the present), winter precipitation was about 70% greater than present winter precipitation, and summer rainfall was minimal. Average annual precipitation probably exceeded present annual precipitation by less than 40%. Annual temperatures were about 6 to 7 C lower than the present average, and evidence exists for winter temperatures much lower than those of the present. A major warming trend occurred between about 16,000 and 12,000 radiocarbon years before present. By the latest Wisconsin (12 ,000 to 10,000 radiocarbon years before present), annual temperatures were within 2 C of temperatures of the present. During the latest Wisconsin, precipitation was greater during the winter, relative to the present. The climate of this pluvial event was much different from that of the preceding full glacial episode and is consistent with current models of astronomically induced climatic changes. (USGS)

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS2022

Yukon River incision drove organic carbon burial in the Bering Sea during global climate changes at 2.6 and 1 Ma

River erosion affects the carbon cycle and thus climate by exporting terrigenous carbon to seafloor sediment and by nourishing CO 2 -consuming marine life. The Yukon River–Bering Sea system preserves rare source-to-sink records of these processes across profound changes in global climate during the past 5 million years (Ma). Here, we expand the terrestrial erosion record by dating terraces along the Charley River, Alaska, and explore linkages among previously published Yukon River tributary incision chronologies and Bering Sea sedimentation. Cosmogenic 26 Al / 10 Be "> isochron burial ages of Charley River terraces match previously documented central Yukon River tributary incision from 2.6 to 1.6 Ma during Pliocene–Pleistocene glacial expansion, and at 1.1 Ma during the 1.2–0.7 Ma Middle Pleistocene climate transition. Bering Sea sediments preserve 2–4-fold rate increases of Yukon River-derived continental detritus, terrestrial and marine organic carbon, and silicate microfossil deposition at 2.6–2.1 and 1.1–0.8 Ma. These tightly coupled records demonstrate elevated terrigenous nutrient and carbon export and concomitant Bering Sea productivity in response to climate-forced Yukon River incision. Carbon burial related to accelerated terrestrial erosion may contribute to CO 2 drawdown across the Pliocene–Pleistocene and Middle Pleistocene climate transitions observed in many proxy records worldwide.

Alaska, British Columbia, Northwest Territories, Y↗
USGS2024

Evolutionary ecology of masting: Mechanisms, models, and climate change

Many perennial plants show mast seeding, characterized by synchronous and highly variable reproduction across years. We propose a general model of masting, integrating proximate factors (environmental variation, weather cues, and resource budgets) with ultimate drivers (predator satiation and pollination efficiency). This general model shows how the relationships between masting and weather shape the diverse responses of species to climate warming, ranging from no change to lower interannual variation or reproductive failure. The role of environmental prediction as a masting driver is being reassessed; future studies need to estimate prediction accuracy and the benefits acquired. Since reproduction is central to plant adaptation to climate change, understanding how masting adapts to shifting environmental conditions is now a central question.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2011

Simulating daily water temperatures of the Klamath River under dam removal and climate change scenarios

A one-dimensional daily averaged water temperature model was used to simulate Klamath River temperatures for two management alternatives under historical climate conditions and six future climate scenarios. The analysis was conducted for the Secretarial Determination on removal of four hydroelectric dams on the Klamath River. In 2012, the Secretary of the Interior will determine if dam removal and implementation of the Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement (KBRA) (Klamath Basin Restoration Agreement, 2010) will advance restoration of salmonid fisheries and is in the public interest. If the Secretary decides dam removal is appropriate, then the four dams are scheduled for removal in 2020. Water temperature simulations were conducted to compare the effect of two management alternatives: the no-action alternative where dams remain in place, and the action alternative where dam removal occurs in 2020 along with habitat restoration. Each management alternative was simulated under historical climate conditions (1961-2010) and six 50-year (2012-2061) climate scenarios. The model selected for the study, River Basin Model-10 (RBM10), was used to simulate water temperatures over a 253-mile reach of the Klamath River located in south-central Oregon and northern California. RBM10 uses a simple equilibrium flow model, assuming discharge in each river segment on each day is transmitted downstream instantaneously. The model uses a heat budget formulation to quantify heat flux at the air-water interface. Inputs for the heat budget were calculated from daily-mean meteorological data, including net shortwave solar radiation, net longwave atmospheric radiation, air temperature, wind speed, vapor pressure, and a psychrometric constant needed to calculate the Bowen ratio. The modeling domain was divided into nine reaches ranging in length from 10.8 to 42.4 miles, which were calibrated and validated separately with measured water temperature data collected irregularly from 1961 to 2010. Calibration root mean square errors of observed versus simulated water temperatures for the nine reaches ranged from 0.8 to 1.5 degrees C. Mean absolute errors ranged from 0.6 to 1.2 degrees C. For model validation, a k-fold cross-validation technique was used. Validation root mean square error and mean absolute error for the nine reaches ranged from 0.8 to 1.4 degrees C and 0.8 to 1.2 degrees C, respectively. Input data for the six future climate scenarios (2012-2061) were derived from historical hydrological and meteorological data and simulated meteorological output from five Global Circulation Models. Total Maximum Daily Loads or other regulatory processes that might reduce future water temperatures were not included in the simulations. Under the current climate conditions scenario, impacts of dam removal on water temperatures were greatest near Iron Gate Dam (near Yreka, California) and were attenuated in the lower reaches of the Klamath River. May and October simulated mean water temperatures increased and decreased by approximately 1-2 degrees C and 2-4 degrees C, respectively, downstream of Iron Gate Dam after dam removal. Dam removal also resulted in an earlier annual temperature cycle shift of 18 days, 5 days, and 2 days, near Iron Gate Dam, Scott River, and Trinity River, respectively. Although the magnitude of precipitation and air temperature change predicted by the five Global Circulation Models varied, all five models resulted in progressive incremental increases in water temperatures with each decade from 2012 to 2061. However, dam removal under KBRA appeared to delay the effects of climate change to some extent near Iron Gate Dam. With dam removal under KBRA, annual-mean water temperatures exceeded the 49-year historical mean temperature beginning in 2045; whereas with dams, annual-mean temperatures exceeded the historical mean beginning in 2025. Potential changes in seasonal water temperatures resulting from dam removal, with or without future climat

Open-File Report↗
USGS2024

Near-term ecological forecasting for climate change action

A substantial increase in predictive capacity is needed to anticipate and mitigate the widespread change in ecosystems and their services in the face of climate and biodiversity crises. In this era of accelerating change, we cannot rely on historical patterns or focus primarily on long-term projections that extend decades into the future. In this Perspective, we discuss the potential of near-term (daily to decadal) iterative ecological forecasting to improve decision-making on actionable time frames. We summarize the current status of ecological forecasting and focus on how to scale up, build on lessons from weather forecasting, and take advantage of recent technological advances. We also highlight the need to focus on equity, workforce development, and broad cross-disciplinary and non-academic partnerships.

Nature Climate Change↗
USGS2010

Southern high latitude dune fields on Mars: Morphology, aeolian inactivity, and climate change

In a study area spanning the martian surface poleward of 50?? S., 1190 dune fields have been identified, mapped, and categorized based on dune field morphology. Dune fields in the study area span ??? 116400km2, leading to a global dune field coverage estimate of ???904000km2, far less than that found on Earth. Based on distinct morphological features, the dune fields were grouped into six different classes that vary in interpreted aeolian activity level from potentially active to relatively inactive and eroding. The six dune field classes occur in specific latitude zones, with a sequence of reduced activity and degradation progressing poleward. In particular, the first signs of stabilization appear at ???60?? S., which broadly corresponds to the edge of high concentrations of water-equivalent hydrogen content (observed by the Neutron Spectrometer) that have been interpreted as ground ice. This near-surface ground ice likely acts to reduce sand availability in the present climate state on Mars, stabilizing high latitude dunes and allowing erosional processes to change their morphology. As a result, climatic changes in the content of near-surface ground ice are likely to influence the level of dune activity. Spatial variation of dune field classes with longitude is significant, suggesting that local conditions play a major role in determining dune field activity level. Dune fields on the south polar layered terrain, for example, appear either potentially active or inactive, indicating that at least two generations of dune building have occurred on this surface. Many dune fields show signs of degradation mixed with crisp-brinked dunes, also suggesting that more than one generation of dune building has occurred since they originally formed. Dune fields superposed on early and late Amazonian surfaces provide potential upper age limits of ???100My on the south polar layered deposits and ???3Ga elsewhere at high latitudes. No craters are present on any identifiable dune fields, which can provide a lower age limit through crater counting: assuming all relatively stabilized dune fields represent a single noncontiguous surface of uniform age, their estimated crater retention age is <???10000years. An average-sized uncratered dune field (94km2) has a crater retention age <???8My. This apparent youth suggests that present-day climate conditions are responsible for the observed degradation and reduced level of aeolian activity. A lack of observed transport pathways and the absence of large dune fields in the largest basins (Hellas and Argyre Planitiae) are consistent with the previously proposed idea that dune sands are not typically transported far from their source regions on Mars. ?? 2009 Elsevier B.V.

Geomorphology↗
USGS2003

Climate change and Arctic ecosystems: 2. Modeling, paleodata-model comparisons, and future projections

Large variations in the composition, structure, and function of Arctic ecosystems are determined by climatic gradients, especially of growing-season warmth, soil moisture, and snow cover. A unified circumpolar classification recognizing five types of tundra was developed. The geographic distributions of vegetation types north of 55°N, including the position of the forest limit and the distributions of the tundra types, could be predicted from climatology using a small set of plant functional types embedded in the biogeochemistry-biogeography model BIOME4. Several palaeoclimate simulations for the last glacial maximum (LGM) and mid-Holocene were used to explore the possibility of simulating past vegetation patterns, which are independently known based on pollen data. The broad outlines of observed changes in vegetation were captured. LGM simulations showed the major reduction of forest, the great extension of graminoid and forb tundra, and the restriction of low- and high-shrub tundra (although not all models produced sufficiently dry conditions to mimic the full observed change). Mid-Holocene simulations reproduced the contrast between northward forest extension in western and central Siberia and stability of the forest limit in Beringia. Projection of the effect of a continued exponential increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration, based on a transient ocean-atmosphere simulation including sulfate aerosol effects, suggests a potential for larger changes in Arctic ecosystems during the 21st century than have occurred between mid-Holocene and present. Simulated physiological effects of the CO 2 increase (to >700 ppm) at high latitudes were slight compared with the effects of the change in climate.

Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres↗
USGS2010

Quantifying effects of climate change on the snowmelt-dominated groundwater resources of northern New England

Recent U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) climate studies in New England have shown substantial evidence of hydrologic changes during the last 100 years, including trends toward earlier snowmelt runoff, decreasing occurrence of river ice, and decreasing winter snowpack. These studies are being expanded to include investigation of trends in groundwater levels and fluctuations. Groundwater is an important drinking-water source throughout northern New England (Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont). The USGS is currently investigating whether or not groundwater recharge from snowmelt and precipitation exhibits historical trends. In addition to trend-testing, groundwater resources also will be analyzed by relating groundwater-level changes to the large year-to-year variability in weather conditions. Introduction The USGS has documented many seasonal climate-related changes in the northeastern United States that have occurred during the last 30 to 150 years. These changes include earlier snowmelt runoff in the late winter and early spring, decreasing duration of ice on rivers and lakes, decreasing ratio of snowfall to total precipitation, and denser and thinner late-winter snowpack. All of these changes are consistent with warming winter and spring air temperatures (Dudley and Hodgkins, 2002; Hodgkins and others, 2002; Huntington and others, 2004; Hodgkins and others, 2005; Hodgkins and Dudley, 2006a; Hodgkins and Dudley, 2006b). Climate-model projections for the Northeast indicate air-temperature warming, earlier snowmelt runoff, increases in annual evaporation, and decreased low streamflows (Hayhoe and others, 2007). The contribution and timing of spring snowmelt to groundwater recharge is particularly important to groundwater resources in the northeastern United States where aquifers typically consist of thin sediments overlying crystalline bedrock with relatively little storage capacity (Mack, 2009). Following spring recharge, groundwater slowly flows into streams throughout the summer. This groundwater flow is a source of cool water during the summer and accounts for a large proportion of the streamflow during summer low-flow periods. Groundwater is an important drinking-water source in northern New England. Approximately 32 percent of public water suppliers draw water from groundwater sources in Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine, and approximately 40 percent of the population derives its drinking water from private wells (Kenny and others, 2009). It is vital to understand changes that may be occurring to such an important resource for planning industrial and agricultural water uses and protecting drinking water.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2013

Thermal controls of Yellowstone cutthroat trout and invasive fishes under climate change

We combine large observed data sets and dynamically downscaled climate data to explore historic and future (2050–2069) stream temperature changes over the topographically diverse Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (elevation range = 824–4017 m). We link future stream temperatures with fish growth models to investigate how changing thermal regimes could influence the future distribution and persistence of native Yellowstone cutthroat trout (YCT) and competing invasive species. We find that stream temperatures during the recent decade (2000–2009) surpass the anomalously warm period of the 1930s. Climate simulations indicate air temperatures will warm by 1 °C to >3 °C over the Greater Yellowstone by mid-21st century, resulting in concomitant increases in 2050–2069 peak stream temperatures and protracted periods of warming from May to September (MJJAS). Projected changes in thermal regimes during the MJJAS growing season modify the trajectories of daily growth rates at all elevations with pronounced growth during early and late summer. For high-elevation populations, we find considerable increases in fish body mass attributable both to warming of cold-water temperatures and to extended growing seasons. During peak July to August warming, mid-21st century temperatures will cause periods of increased thermal stress, rendering some low-elevation streams less suitable for YCT. The majority (80%) of sites currently inhabited by YCT, however, display minimal loss (<10%) or positive changes in total body mass by midcentury; we attribute this response to the fact that many low-elevation populations of YCT have already been extirpated by historical changes in land use and invasions of non-native species. Our results further suggest that benefits to YCT populations due to warmer stream temperatures at currently cold sites could be offset by the interspecific effects of corresponding growth of sympatric, non-native species, underscoring the importance of developing climate adaptation strategies that reduce limiting factors such as non-native species and habitat degradation.

Global Change Biology↗
USGS2007

Climate Change Research at USGS Center for Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS)

Research and development projects at EROS apply unique resources to support the USGS mission of developing understanding, monitoring, and modeling of climate variability and change and their human, physical, and biological impacts. Remote sensing resources, both new and archived, form the core of our ability to determine changes in the state or condition of the Earth’s surface and its dynamic landscape and ecosystem processes. This rich resource provides powerful biophysical information for local to global areas. Archival data form the basis for assessing human and climate impacts on the land surface, trends of land use, and an understanding of climate and management impacts. Biophysical information from satellite data is assimilated into quantitative models that allow all disciplines of the USGS to understand impacts on ecosystem processes. Major processes and problems we address include: carbon fluxes, hydrological processes, albedo changes and regional climates, mangroves and wetland protection of coastal environments, natural and manmade hazards (e.g., fire and drought), ecosystem change and succession, land use and land cover change, and more. The integration of remote sensing, modeling, and multidisciplinary approaches fosters international scientific leadership across all disciplines for the USGS.

Fact Sheet↗
USGS2014

Optimal water depth management on river-fed National Wildlife Refuges in a changing climate

The prairie pothole region (PPR) in the north-central United States and south-central Canada constitutes the most important waterfowl breeding area in North America. Projected long-term changes in precipitation and temperature may alter the drivers of waterfowl abundance: wetland availability and emergent vegetation cover. Previous studies have focused on isolated wetland dynamics, but the implications of changing precipitation on managed, river-fed wetlands have not been addressed. Using a structured decision making (SDM) approach, we derived optimal water management actions for 20 years at four river-fed National Wildlife Refuges (NWRs) in North and South Dakota under contrasting increasing/decreasing (+/&minus;0.4 %/year) inflow scenarios derived from empirical trends. Refuge pool depth is manipulated by control structures. Optimal management involves setting control structure heights that have the highest probability of providing a desired mix of waterfowl habitat, given refuge capacities and inflows. We found optimal seasonal control structure heights for each refuge were essentially the same under increasing and decreasing inflow trends of 0.4 %/year over the next 20 years. Results suggest managed pools in the NWRs receive large inflows relative to their capacities. Hence, water availability does not constrain management; pool bathymetry and management tactics can be greater constraints on attaining management objectives than climate-mediated inflow. We present time-dependent optimal seasonal control structure heights for each refuge, which are resilient to the non-stationary precipitation scenarios we examined. Managers can use this information to provide a desired mixture of wildlife habitats, and to re-assess management objectives in reserves where pool bathymetry prevents attaining the currently stated objectives.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2014

Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms

With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

Book chapter↗
USGS2019

Local, temporal trajectories explain population-level responses to climate change in saguaro (Carnegiea gigantea)

Population demography is typically assumed to be strongly influenced by climatic factors, particularly with succulent plants and cacti. The saguaro cactus ( Carnegiea gigantea ) is a long‐lived columnar cactus of the Sonoran Desert that experiences episodic recruitment and mortality. Previous studies have attributed long‐term changes in saguaro populations to climatic factors, including increased germination and establishment during wet periods and mortality and reduced establishment during droughts and extreme freezes. We used a 48‐yr data set of marked individuals at the Desert Laboratory in Tucson, Arizona, to test the hypothesis that local, temporal population trajectories are mediated by topographic heterogeneity that interacts with fluctuating climatic conditions. We tested the influence of local slope and aspect vs. climatic variability on a population of saguaro using >5800 marked individuals that have been measured since 1964. We examined the relationship between demography and climatic variables (drought, precipitation, and extreme temperatures) and found significant differences in growth and survival among aspects and among census periods. Saguaro population growth was higher during wet and cool periods (e.g., 1964–1970), and changes in age structures suggest that topographic differences interact with climatic fluctuations to produce unexpected demographic patterns including large recruitment events during periods of relatively unfavorable climate conditions. Our results highlight the importance of long‐term data to detect demographic responses to climate that could not be predicted from short‐term studies of plant physiology and population demography.

Arizona↗