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USGS2022

Secretive marsh bird habitat relationships at mid-continent spring migration stopover sites

Despite several secretive marsh bird (SMB) species being listed as critically imperiled throughout the mid-continent of North America, limited information on SMB distribution and habitat use within primary migratory corridors results in uncertainty on contributions of wetlands in mid-latitude states toward their annual cycle needs. Our objectives were to quantify temporal patterns of SMB wetland occupancy during spring migration at a mid-latitude state and evaluate the relationships between SMB colonization probability and water-level management practices, and the resulting habitat conditions during spring migration. We conducted a 2-year, dynamic occupancy study (2013–2014) that included 6 rounds of repeated call-back surveys to detect the presence of 5 SMB species (i.e., Virginia rail [ Rallus limicola ], sora [ Porzana carolina ], king rail [ R. elegans ], least bittern [ Ixobrychus exilis ], and American bittern [ Botaurus lentiginosus ]) during spring (Apr–Jun) on 107 wetlands across 8 conservation areas and 4 national wildlife refuges throughout Missouri, USA. We detected sora most frequently, followed by least bittern, American bittern, Virginia rail, and king rail. Coefficient estimates indicated colonization probability for all species was positively associated with emergent vegetation cover and negatively associated with amount of open water. Open water was the only variable in the best supported model explaining American bittern site colonization, to which they were negatively associated. Virginia rail colonization had a strong positive association with vegetation height, whereas least bittern and sora site colonization were influenced positively by water depth and agriculture, respectively. Based on the habitat associations within and among SMB species identified in this study, wetland managers can tailor management strategies to optimize spring migration habitat for single- or multi-species objectives.

Missouri↗

USGS2021

Hydrology and water quality of the Great Dismal Swamp, Virginia and North Carolina, and implications for hydrologic-management goals and strategies

The Great Dismal Swamp is a peat wetland in the Coastal Plain of southeastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina. Timber harvesting and the construction of ditches to drain the swamp and facilitate the harvesting are collectively implicated in changes that altered the wetland forests, caused subsidence and decomposition of the peat, and increased the risk of fire. In response to these changes, managers have implemented strategies to control water levels and rewet the swamp using a network of 64 adjustable-height, water-control structures on the ditches. Rewetting the swamp is intended to re-establish the original wetland-forest types, reduce the risk of fire, reduce subsidence and decomposition of the peat, enhance peat accretion, and reduce the risk of fire. Knowledge of responses of the swamp to hydrologic controls, however, is critical to developing and implementing effective management goals and strategies. Because the 2008 South One fire reemphasized the need for this knowledge, the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service began studies in 2009 to identify critical hydrologic controls and responses to these controls. These studies identified water sources, topography, the two-layered hydraulic characteristics of the peat, the absence of peat in some areas, the ditch and road network, water-control structures on the ditches, the Dismal Swamp Canal and associated infrastructure, and wetland forests as the primary hydrologic controls. Precipitation is the only water source across much of the swamp. The eastward flow of streams and groundwater from the Isle of Wight Plain, across the Suffolk scarp, and into the swamp are additional water sources to the western part of the swamp. Vertical differences in the hydraulic characteristics of the peat reflect an upper peat having a high hydraulic conductivity and specific yield overlying a lower peat and sand having lower hydraulic conductivity and specific yield. The upper peat forms the main aquifer for the storage, flow, and release of water from the swamp. Maintaining water in the upper peat is critical to water availability to the wetland forests because of these properties. Groundwater flows from the swamp into the ditches and the Dismal Swamp Canal where it discharges into nearby streams. Discharge typically is to the closest ditch except where a spoil-pile road that impedes flow intervenes between the swamp and the ditch. When groundwater levels in a ditch are about 2 feet lower than levels in the other three ditches surrounding a part of the swamp, however, most groundwater typically discharges to the ditch having the lower level. This occurs even if a spoil-pile road intervenes between the swamp and the ditch having the lower level. Flow to a single ditch shifts watershed boundaries and groundwater divides toward the ditches having higher water levels and demonstrates how flow and discharge are controlled by ditch water levels. Consequently, managing water levels based on these and other hydrologic controls and responses is critical to achieving management objectives. The chemistry of water across the swamp shows the effects of the peat. Dissolved organic carbon concentrations in the groundwater are among the highest reported globally, ranging from 55 to 195 milligrams per liter. The pH of groundwater and ditch water is commonly less than 4.0 standard units because of organic acids. A relation between the pH and specific conductance of groundwater and ditch water reflects water sources, flow paths, and the chemical evolution, as waters from the different sources mix and flow along the paths.

North Carolina, Virginia↗

USGS2024

Seasonal activity patterns of northern long-eared bats on the coastal Mid-Atlantic

Conservation of bats declining from white-nose syndrome (WNS) impacts requires an understanding of both temporal and landscape-level habitat relationships. Traditionally, much of the research on bat ecology has focused on behavior of summer maternity colonies within species’ distribution cores, including that of the endangered northern long-eared bat ( Myotis septentrionalis ). To further our knowledge of this species, we evaluated multi-season activity patterns in eastern North Carolina and Virginia, including areas where populations were recently discovered. We used passive acoustic monitoring to assess relative and probable activity of northern long-eared bats from October 2016 to August 2021. Northern long-eared bat relative activity was greatest in areas containing greater proportions of woody wetlands and upland pine-dominated evergreen forests. However, the likelihood of recording northern long-eared bats was associated with smaller proportions of woody wetlands and open water resources. Furthermore, we observed a higher probability of recording northern long-eared bats during non-winter seasons. Probable activity was greatest at temperatures between 10 and 25 C, potentially highlighting an optimal thermoneutral zone for the species regionally. Relative activity of northern long-eared bats on the Coastal Plain of Virginia and North Carolina was primarily driven by cover features, whereas probable activity was driven by a combination of cover features, seasonality, and temperature. Therefore, acoustical surveys for this species may be most effective when targeting woody wetlands adjacent to upland forests, particularly upland pine-dominated evergreen stands, during moderate temperatures of non-winter seasons (1 April–15 November). Moreover, conservation of a diverse mosaic of woody wetlands juxtaposed by upland forests may promote both roosting and overwintering habitat, thereby enhancing overwintering survival, maternity colony establishment, and ultimately, successful reproduction of northern long-eared bats.

North Carolina, Virginia↗

USGS1990

Chironomidae of the southeastern United States: a checklist of species and notes on biology, distribution, and habitat

We provide a current listing of the species of midges (Diptera:Chironomidae) in the southeastern United States (Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee). This checklist should aid research on this group of insects, which have often proved useful in the assessment of water quality. We document each species' distribution and general habitat and provide the best taxonomic reference to facilitate the identification or description of species in that genus. Changes in nomenclature, unique ecological traits, bibliographic sources, or other items of information are summarized in a paragraph on each genus. Of the 10 sub-families currently recognized in the Chironomidae, 7 occur in the Southeast. The chironomid fauna of the six southeastern States now consist of 164 described genera and 479 described species. In addition we have listed 14 genera and 245 species that are tenatively noted as undescribed.

Fish and Wildlife Research↗

USGS2023

Marshbird response to herbicide control of cattail in northwestern Minnesota

Wetlands provide essential habitat for a wide variety of wildlife species. In the once wetland-rich Prairie Pothole Region and adjacent areas of central North America, many wetlands have been converted to agricultural production. Many remaining wetlands experience ecological change via the invasion and spread of non-native plant species, such as non-native narrowleaf ( Typha angustifolia ) and hybrid cattail ( Typha x glauca ), which spread aggressively and displace native vegetation, especially in large, impounded wetlands. Management of wetlands in these landscapes often includes broad-scale herbicide application intended to break up mats of cattail and restore areas to more wildlife-friendly conditions. Although restoration of wildlife habitat is a common goal of such management, marshbird response to invasive cattail control is poorly understood. To evaluate the effects of cattail management on wetland wildlife, we conducted standardized call-broadcast surveys for 5 species of marshbirds at 9 study sites that included survey locations associated with areas treated with herbicide and paired areas not treated with herbicide in wetland impoundments in northwestern Minnesota, USA, using a before-after, control-impact study design. We surveyed American bitterns ( Botaurus lentiginosus ), least bitterns ( Ixobrychus exilis ), pied-billed grebes ( Podilymbus podiceps ), soras ( Porzana carolina ), and Virginia rails ( Rallus limicola ) during the breeding season prior to herbicide application (late summer and early autumn of 2015) and during the 3 breeding seasons after herbicide application (2016–2018). We modeled species counts using a generalized linear mixed model with year-by-treatment interactions as fixed effects and site as a random effect. Before herbicide application, expected mean counts did not differ between treatment and control survey locations. Three years post-treatment, we detected significant increases in expected mean counts at treatment compared to control survey locations for soras ( t 193 = −3.373, P = 0.020) and Virginia rails ( t 193 = −3.167, P = 0.037), and point estimates for all species except least bittern were higher at treatment survey locations. Overall, our results suggest that these marshbird species responded positively to herbicide control of invasive cattail and that breeding marshbirds in these and similar wetland systems may experience positive population response over a period of at least 3 years following treatment.

Minnesota↗

USGS1995

Canada geese in the Atlantic Flyway

Large changes have occurred in the geographic wintering distribution and subspecies composition of the Atlantic Flyway population of Canada geese ( Branta canadensis ) over the last 40 years. The Atlantic Flyway can be thought of as being partitioned into four regions: South, Chesapeake, mid-Atlantic, and New England. Wintering numbers have declined in the southern states (North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Florida), increased then decreased in the Chesapeake region (Delaware, Maryland, Virginia), and increased markedly in the mid-Atlantic region (New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, West Virginia) (Serie 1993; Fig. 1). In the New England region (Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut), wintering numbers increased from around 6,000 during 1948-50 to between 20,000 and 30,000 today (Serie 1993). Overall, the total number of wintering geese reaching a peak of 955,000 in 1981 and has since declined 40% to 569,000 in 1993. Compounding these distributional changes in wintering numbers, the subspecies composition has also changed. The Canada goose population is composed of migrant geese (primarily B.c. canadensis and B.c. interior ) that breed in the subarctic regions of Canada and resident geese (primarily B.c. maxima and B.c. moffitti ) that breed in southern Canada and the United States (Stotts 1983). The number of resident geese in Maine to Virginia has increased considerable from maybe 50,000 to 100,000 in 1981 (Conover and Chasko 1985) to an average of 560,000 in 1992-93 (H. Heusman, Massachusetts Division of Fisheries and Wildlife, personal communication). This rapid increase in resident geese suggests that the migrant population has declined more than the 40% decline observed in total wintering geese from 1981 to 1993.

Atlantic Flyway↗

USGS2010

Challenges of DNA-based mark-recapture studies of American black bears

We explored whether genetic sampling would be feasible to provide a region-wide population estimate for American black bears ( Ursus americanus ) in the southern Appalachians, USA. Specifically, we determined whether adequate capture probabilities ( p >0.20) and population estimates with a low coefficient of variation (CV <20%) could be achieved given typical agency budget and personnel constraints. We extracted DNA from hair collected from baited barbed-wire enclosures sampled over a 10-week period on 2 study areas: a high-density black bear population in a portion of Great Smoky Mountains National Park and a lower density population on National Forest lands in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. We identified individual bears by their unique genotypes obtained from 9 microsatellite loci. We sampled 129 and 60 different bears in the National Park and National Forest study areas, respectively, and applied closed mark–recapture models to estimate population abundance. Capture probabilities and precision of the population estimates were acceptable only for sampling scenarios for which we pooled weekly sampling periods. We detected capture heterogeneity biases, probably because of inadequate spatial coverage by the hair-trapping grid. The logistical challenges of establishing and checking a sufficiently high density of hair traps make DNA-based estimates of black bears impractical for the southern Appalachian region. Alternatives are to estimate population size for smaller areas, estimate population growth rates or survival using mark–recapture methods, or use independent marking and recapturing techniques to reduce capture heterogeneity.

Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee↗

USGS2002

Epizootiologic studies of avian vacuolar myelinopathy in waterbirds

Epizootic avian vacuolar myelinopathy (AVM) was first recognized as a neurologic disease in bald eagles (Haliaeetus leucocephalus) and American coots (Fulica americana) in Arkansas, USA in 1994 and 1996, respectively, but attempts to identify the etiology of the disease have been unsuccessful to date. Between 1998 and 2001, wing clipped sentinel birds (wild American coots and game farm mallards [Anas platyrhynchos]) were released at Lake Surf, North Carolina, a lake with recurrent outbreaks of AVM, in order to gain a better understanding of the epizootiology of the disease. As early as 5-7 days post-release, sentinel coots and mallards showed neurologic signs of disease and were confirmed with AVM upon histologic examination of their brains. Serial releases of sentinel mallards during the summer, fall, and winter of 2000-01 demonstrated that exposure to the causative agent at a threshold sufficient to manifest disease was seasonal and occurred over about a 2 mo period, during November and December. Our findings that disease onset can be very rapid (5-7 days) and that exposure to the causative agent of AVM is site-specific, seasonal (late fall to early winter), and occurs over a relatively short duration (several months) supports the hypothesis that the disease is caused by a chemical substance, most likely of natural origin.

North Carolina↗

USGS1960

Woodcock status report, 1960

Singing ground counts for 1960 from 40 routes west of the Appalachians and 166 routes east of this range were available for comparison with counts made on the same routes in 1959. While the measurements of change in the woodcock breeding index between years relate, properly speaking, only to these routes as selected by the cooperators, this is the best information we have on the breeding population of the area east of Wisconsin and north of Tennessee and South Carolina.* East of the Appalachians the sample data indicated a statistically significant decrease of 10 per cent, and it probably is safe to conclude that the true drop did not exceed 19 per cent. West of the Appalachians an average increase of 7 per cent was indicated, and 95 per cent confidence limits suggest- that if a decrease did occur on the sample routes, it probably was not more than 13 per cent. For both areas combined, a decrease of 2 per cent was recorded on the 206 routes sampled, with confidence limits of an increase of 9 per cent or a decrease of 12 per cent. There is no evidence of a disastrous population decrease in spite of the severe weather conditions of March 1960. *No comparative data were available from Indiana, Quebec, Rhode Island, Delaware or Virginia; and only one route in Minnesota and one in Wisconsin were covered both years.

Special Scientific Report - Wildlife↗

USGS1992

Annual survival rates of adult and immature eastern population tundra swans

Tundra swans ( Cygnus columbianus) of the eastern population were neckbanded in Maryland, North Carolina, and Alaska from 1966 through 1990. These swans were resighted and recaptured during autumn, winter, and spring, 1966-1990. Although the original motivation for this study involved swan movements, we wanted to use the resulting data to test hypotheses about sources of variation in swan survival rates. Recaptures of legbanded and neckbanded swans permitted us to estimate neckband loss rates, which were found to vary with age and sex of swans, and number of years since initial application. Estimates of annual neckband retention rate ranged from about 0.50 for adult male swans ≥ 2 years after initial neckbanding to > 0.96 for immature swans and adult females the first year following neckbanding. This variation in neckband loss rates prevented the simple correction of survival estimates to account for such loss. Consequently, we developed a series of multinomial models parameterized with survival, sighting, and neckband retention probabilities for use with the recapture and resighting data.

Alaska, Maryland, North Carolina↗

USGS2020

Winter survival of female Ring-Necked Ducks in the Southern Atlantic Flyway

North American waterfowl harvest regulations are largely guided by the status of breeding populations. Nonetheless, understanding the demographics of wintering waterfowl populations can elucidate the effects of hunting pressure on population dynamics. The ring‐necked duck ( Aythya collaris ) breeds and winters in all North American administrative flyways and is one of the most abundant and most harvested diving ducks in the Atlantic Flyway. But few studies have investigated the winter ecology of ring‐necked ducks. We used a known‐fate analysis to estimate period survival probability using data from 87 female ring‐necked ducks marked with satellite transmitters in 2 regions of the southern Atlantic Flyway during winters of 2017–2018 and 2018–2019. Winter (128‐day) survival probability was higher for individuals in the Red Hills region of southern Georgia and northern Florida (0.875, 95% CI = 0.691–0.952) than individuals in central South Carolina (0.288, 95% CI = 0.082–0.514). We attribute the regional disparity in winter survival probabilities to differences in hunting pressure, which are reflected in the number of harvests we observed in each region. Our findings warrant further investigation into regional variation in winter survival of southern Atlantic Flyway ring‐necked ducks, and, specifically, the relationship between variable harvest pressure and winter survival and its influence on ring‐necked duck population dynamics and adaptive harvest management decisions.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2002

Test of a habitat suitability index for black bears in the southern Appalachians

We present a habitat suitability index (HSI) model for black bears (Ursus americanus) living in the southern Appalachians that was developed a priori from the literature, then tested using location and home range data collected in the Pisgah Bear Sanctuary, North Carolina, over a 12-year period. The HSI was developed and initially tested using habitat and bear data collected over 2 years in the sanctuary. We increased number of habitat sampling sites, included data collected in areas affected by timber harvest, used more recent Geographic Information System (GIS) technology to create a more accurate depiction of the HSI for the sanctuary, evaluated effects of input variability on HSI values, and duplicated the original tests using more data. We found that the HSI predicted habitat selection by bears on population and individual levels and the distribution of collared bears were positively correlated with HSI values. We found a stronger relationship between habitat selection by bears and a second-generation HSI. We evaluated our model with criteria suggested by Roloff and Kernohan (1999) for evaluating HSI model reliability and concluded that our model was reliable and robust. The model's strength is that it was developed as an a priori hypothesis directly modeling the relationship between critical resources and fitness of bears and tested with independent data. We present the HSI spatially as a continuous fitness surface where potential contribution of habitat to the fitness of a bear is depicted at each point in space.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

USGS2020

Using ultrasonic acoustics to detect cryptic flying squirrels: Effects of season and habitat suitability

New technologies allow for more efficient and effective monitoring of rare or elusive species. However, standardizing protocol to ensure high detection rates is important prior to widespread use of a new technique. The use of ultrasonic acoustic detectors to survey for flying squirrels ( Glaucomys spp.) is a novel method that is more efficient than traditional methods. However, certain methodologies for this technique still need to be refined. During 2015, we conducted a seasonal and habitat quality study on the endangered Carolina northern flying squirrel ( G. sabrinus coloratus ) in western North Carolina, USA. Our seasonal study examined differences in probability of detection (POD) and latency to detection (LTD) at 30 high-quality sites across 10 survey nights in spring, summer, and autumn. The habitat quality study focused on POD and LTD among 15 sites with varying habitat quality (5 High, 5 Medium, 5 Low) across 20 survey nights. We found POD similar between seasons, with POD 15–20% greater during spring. The LTD was comparable among seasons. We found that POD and LTD varied at sites with different habitat quality. The POD was similar between High and Medium sites (0.26 ± 0.04 SE and 0.29 ± 0.05, respectively), but greater than Low sites (0.02 ± 0.02). The LTD was not different among sites with differing habitat quality, although LTD at High sites was 2.7 and 4.5 times lower than Medium and Low sites, respectively. Trill calls, the most distinctive species-specific call type produced by species of flying squirrels, was recorded at greater rates in spring versus other times of the year. Our results indicate flying squirrels can be surveyed during any season, although habitat quality needs to be considered when determining survey length. For Carolina northern flying squirrel, the optimal time to perform acoustic surveys is during the spring season for 6–10 survey nights at sites with high or medium habitat quality.

North Carolina↗

USGS2014

Groundwater availability in the Crouch Branch and McQueen Branch aquifers, Chesterfield County, South Carolina, 1900-2012

Chesterfield County is located in the northeastern part of South Carolina along the southern border of North Carolina and is primarily underlain by unconsolidated sediments of Late Cretaceous age and younger of the Atlantic Coastal Plain. Approximately 20 percent of Chesterfield County is in the Piedmont Physiographic Province, and this area of the county is not included in this study. These Atlantic Coastal Plain sediments compose two productive aquifers: the Crouch Branch aquifer that is present at land surface across most of the county and the deeper, semi-confined McQueen Branch aquifer. Most of the potable water supplied to residents of Chesterfield County is produced from the Crouch Branch and McQueen Branch aquifers by a well field located near McBee, South Carolina, in the southwestern part of the county. Overall, groundwater availability is good to very good in most of Chesterfield County, especially the area around and to the south of McBee, South Carolina. The eastern part of Chesterfield County does not have as abundant groundwater resources but resources are generally adequate for domestic purposes. The primary purpose of this study was to determine groundwater-flow rates, flow directions, and changes in water budgets over time for the Crouch Branch and McQueen Branch aquifers in the Chesterfield County area. This goal was accomplished by using the U.S. Geological Survey finite-difference MODFLOW groundwater-flow code to construct and calibrate a groundwater-flow model of the Atlantic Coastal Plain of Chesterfield County. The model was created with a uniform grid size of 300 by 300 feet to facilitate a more accurate simulation of groundwater-surface-water interactions. The model consists of 617 rows from north to south extending about 35 miles and 884 columns from west to east extending about 50 miles, yielding a total area of about 1,750 square miles. However, the active part of the modeled area, or the part where groundwater flow is simulated, totaled about 1,117 square miles. Major types of data used as input to the model included groundwater levels, groundwater-use data, and hydrostratigraphic data, along with estimates and measurements of stream base flows made specifically for this study. The groundwater-flow model was calibrated to groundwater-level and stream base-flow conditions from 1900 to 2012 using 39 stress periods. The model was calibrated with an automated parameter-estimation approach using the computer program PEST, and the model used regularized inversion and pilot points. The groundwater-flow model was calibrated using field data that included groundwater levels that had been collected between 1940 and 2012 from 239 wells and base-flow measurements from 44 locations distributed within the study area. To better understand recharge and inter-aquifer interactions, seven wells were equipped with continuous groundwater-level recording equipment during the course of the study, between 2008 and 2012. These water levels were included in the model calibration process. The observed groundwater levels were compared to the simulated ones, and acceptable calibration fits were achieved. Root mean square error for the simulated groundwater levels compared to all observed groundwater levels was 9.3 feet for the Crouch Branch aquifer and 8.6 feet for the McQueen Branch aquifer. The calibrated groundwater-flow model was then used to calculate groundwater budgets for the entire study area and for two sub-areas. The sub-areas are the Alligator Rural Water and Sewer Company well field near McBee, South Carolina, and the Carolina Sandhills National Wildlife Refuge acquisition boundary area. For the overall model area, recharge rates vary from 56 to 1,679 million gallons per day (Mgal/d) with a mean of 737 Mgal/d over the simulation period (1900–2012). The simulated water budget for the streams and rivers varies from 653 to 1,127 Mgal/d with a mean of 944 Mgal/d. The simulated “storage-in term” ranges from 0 to 565 Mgal/d with a mean of 276 Mgal/d. The simulated “storage-out term” has a range of 0 to 552 Mgal/d with a mean of 77 Mgal/d. Groundwater budgets for the McBee, South Carolina, area and the Carolina Sandhills National Wildlife Refuge acquisition area had similar results. An analysis of the effects of past and current groundwater withdrawals on base flows in the McBee area indicated a negligible effect of pumping from the Alligator Rural Water and Sewer well field on local stream base flows. Simulate base flows for 2012 for selected streams in and around the McBee area were similar with and without simulated groundwater withdrawals from the well field. Removing all pumping from the model for the entire simulation period (1900–2012) produces a negligible difference in increased base flow for the selected streams. The 2012 flow for Lower Alligator Creek was 5.04 Mgal/d with the wells pumping and 5.08 Mgal/d without the wells pumping; this represents the largest difference in simulated flows for the six streams.

South Carolina↗

USGS2012

Quantification of water-level variability effect on plant species populations using paleoecological and hydrological time series data

Soil cores provide valuable data on historical changes in vegetation and hydrologic conditions. Empirical models were developed to quantify the effect of meteorological and hydrologic forcing on plant species distributions over a 110-year period in Water Conservation Area 1 (WCA1) in the Florida Everglades, also known as the Arthur R. Marshall Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge. Empirical models that predict plant species distributions at sites within WCA1 were developed by linking temporally sparse seed bank data from soil cores with continuous multi-decadal daily meteorological and hydrologic time series data. The meteorological data included rainfall and maximum daily temperatures that spanned the entire study period of 110 years. The hydrologic data included stage data from two gages in WCA1 established in 1954. These stage data were hindcasted to be concurrent with the meteorological data by using correlation models that fit measured stages as a function of the meteorological parameters. The historical plant species data came from seven peat cores from WCA1. Different depths from each core were carbon-dated and assayed for relative percentages of 83 plant species using pollen counts. The oldest dates were more than 1,000 years old; however, only core data that overlapped the study period were used, for a total of 67 assays among the seven cores. Twenty-three of the species had ratios of at least 5 percent for one or more of the 67 assays, hereafter referred to as the "top23". Using the assays as input vectors, the top23 were grouped using the k-means clustering into four plant classes that represented the extent to which the various species have historically appeared together. This reduced the modeling problem to one of predicting the relative ratios of the four plant classes from the hindcasted stage time-series data. A separate empirical model was developed for each class using a multi-layer perceptron artificial neural network, which provides multivariate, nonlinear curve fitting. The models predicted the relative ratios of the classes, and the sums of the predictions are near 1. The coefficient of determination (R2) of the models varied from 0.87 to 0.96, indicating that the relative ratios of the plant classes are predictable, and therefore controllable, from stage forcing. Similar soil cores are available for the Coastal Plain of North Carolina and are planned for the Congaree National Park in South Carolina.

Florida↗

USGS2018

Persistence-based area prioritization for conservation: Applying occupancy and habitat threats and risks analyses

Effective habitat conservation is predicated on maintaining high levels or increasing local persistence probability of the species it purports to protect. Thus, methodological approaches that improve the inferential value of local persistence are of utmost value to guide conservation planning as they inform area selection processes. Herein we used the painted bunting Passerina ciris, a species of conservation interest in North Carolina, as an illustrative case that combined single-season, single-species occupancy analyses and a threats and risk decision support tool to rank five areas of conservation interest in terms of local persistence probability. We used survey data from two seasons (2008–2009) grouped into 21 natal dispersal sampling units and land-cover data from 12 habitat classes to establish the relationship between local occupancy probability and habitat. Occupancy increased most strongly with increasing amount of maritime forest. Projections to year 2050, relative to year 2000, indicated that a potential loss of maritime forest of 200–1,300 ha, depending on the area of interest. Projected loss was lowest at Bald Head Island–Wilmington (2%) and highest at Camp Lejune (27%). Bald Head Island–Wilmington ranked highest in projected local persistence probability (0.91; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.53–0.99), whereas Top Sail–Hammocks Beach Park ranked lowest (0.28; 95% CI = 0.03–0.82). Estimates of local persistence offer decision-makers another criterion to prioritize areas for conservation and help guide efforts aimed at maintaining or enhancing local persistence. These include in situ habitat management, expanding or connecting existing areas of interest. In the future, we recommend the use of multiseason occupancy models, coupled with measures of uncertainty of land-cover projections, to strengthen inferences about local persistence, particularly useful in nonstationary landscapes driven by human activities.

North Carolina↗

USGS2017

Smartphone technologies and Bayesian networks to assess shorebird habitat selection

Understanding patterns of habitat selection across a species’ geographic distribution can be critical for adequately managing populations and planning for habitat loss and related threats. However, studies of habitat selection can be time consuming and expensive over broad spatial scales, and a lack of standardized monitoring targets or methods can impede the generalization of site-based studies. Our objective was to collaborate with natural resource managers to define available nesting habitat for piping plovers ( Charadrius melodus ) throughout their U.S. Atlantic coast distribution from Maine to North Carolina, with a goal of providing science that could inform habitat management in response to sea-level rise. We characterized a data collection and analysis approach as being effective if it provided low-cost collection of standardized habitat-selection data across the species’ breeding range within 1–2 nesting seasons and accurate nesting location predictions. In the method developed, >30 managers and conservation practitioners from government agencies and private organizations used a smartphone application, “iPlover,” to collect data on landcover characteristics at piping plover nest locations and random points on 83 beaches and barrier islands in 2014 and 2015. We analyzed these data with a Bayesian network that predicted the probability a specific combination of landcover variables would be associated with a nesting site. Although we focused on a shorebird, our approach can be modified for other taxa. Results showed that the Bayesian network performed well in predicting habitat availability and confirmed predicted habitat preferences across the Atlantic coast breeding range of the piping plover. We used the Bayesian network to map areas with a high probability of containing nesting habitat on the Rockaway Peninsula in New York, USA, as an example application. Our approach facilitated the collation of evidence-based information on habitat selection from many locations and sources, which can be used in management and decision-making applications.

U.S Atlantic Coast↗

USGS2014

Ecological implications of Laurel Wilt infestation on Everglades Tree Islands, southern Florida

There is a long history of introduced pests attacking native forest trees in the United States (Liebhold and others, 1995; Aukema and others, 2010). Well-known examples include chestnut blight that decimated the American chestnut ( Castanea dentata ), an extremely important tree in the eastern United States, both as a food source for wildlife and humans and for the wood; Dutch elm disease that attacks native elms ( Ulmus spp.), including those commonly planted as shade trees along city streets; and the balsam wooly adelgid (Adelges piceae), an insect that is destroying Fraser firs ( Abies fraseri ) in higher elevations of Great Smoky Mountains National Park. Laurel wilt, a fungal disease transmitted by the redbay ambrosia beetle (Xyleborus glabratus), is a 21st-century example of an introduced forest pest that attacks native tree species in the laurel family (Lauraceae) (Mayfield, 2007; Hulcr and Dunn, 2011). The introduction of laurel wilt disease has been traced to the arrival of an Asian ambrosia beetle ( Xyleborus glabratus ) at Port Wentworth, Georgia, near Savannah, in 2002, apparently accidently introduced in wooden shipping material (Mayfield, 2007). Within the next 2 years, it was determined that the non-native wood-boring insect was the vector of an undescribed species of fungus, responsible for killing large numbers of red bay ( Persea borbonia ) trees in the surrounding area. Dispersing female redbay ambrosia beetles drill into live trees and create tunnels in the wood. They carry with them fungal spores in specialized organs called mycangia at the base of each mandible and sow the spores in the tunnels they excavate. The fungus, since named Raffaelea lauricola (Harrington and others, 2008), is the food source for adults and larvae. The introduction of Raffaelea lauricola causes the host plant to react in such a way as to block the vascular tissue, resulting in loss of water conduction, wilt, and death (Kendra and others, 2013). Although first seen in red bay, laurel wilt disease also kills other native trees that are members of the laurel family, including swamp bay ( Persea palustris ), silk bay ( Persea borbonia var. humilis ), and sassafras ( Sassafras albidum ), as well as the economically important cultivated avocado ( Persea americana ) (Fraedrich and others, 2008). This paper is concerned primarily with swamp bay, an important component of Everglades tree islands. The spread of the redbay ambrosia beetle and its fungal symbiont has been very rapid, exceeding model predictions (Koch and Smith, 2008); by 2011, laurel wilt disease was found from the southern coastal plain of North Carolina to southern peninsular Florida. The first redbay ambrosia beetle was trapped in Miami-Dade County in March 2010, and laurel wilt disease was discovered in swamp bays in February 2011 and in commercial avocado groves about a year later (Kendra and others, 2013). By 2013, laurel wilt disease was seen in swamp bays throughout the southern Everglades in Everglades National Park, Big Cypress National Preserve, and Water Conservation Areas (WCAs) 3A and 3B (Rodgers and others, 2014).

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