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Clarity versus complexity: land-use modeling as a practical tool for decision-makers

The last decade has seen a remarkable increase in the number of modeling tools available to examine future land-use and land-cover (LULC) change. Integrated modeling frameworks, agent-based models, cellular automata approaches, and other modeling techniques have substantially improved the representation of complex LULC systems, with each method using a different strategy to address complexity. However, despite the development of new and better modeling tools, the use of these tools is limited for actual planning, decision-making, or policy-making purposes. LULC modelers have become very adept at creating tools for modeling LULC change, but complicated models and lack of transparency limit their utility for decision-makers. The complicated nature of many LULC models also makes it impractical or even impossible to perform a rigorous analysis of modeling uncertainty. This paper provides a review of land-cover modeling approaches and the issues causes by the complicated nature of models, and provides suggestions to facilitate the increased use of LULC models by decision-makers and other stakeholders. The utility of LULC models themselves can be improved by 1) providing model code and documentation, 2) through the use of scenario frameworks to frame overall uncertainties, 3) improving methods for generalizing key LULC processes most important to stakeholders, and 4) adopting more rigorous standards for validating models and quantifying uncertainty. Communication with decision-makers and other stakeholders can be improved by increasing stakeholder participation in all stages of the modeling process, increasing the transparency of model structure and uncertainties, and developing user-friendly decision-support systems to bridge the link between LULC science and policy. By considering these options, LULC science will be better positioned to support decision-makers and increase real-world application of LULC modeling results.

Journal of Environmental Management↗

Potential risks of vegetation treatments to introduce and increase invasive annual grasses in rangelands of Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota— A science synthesis to inform National Environmental Policy Act analyses

The U.S. Geological Survey is working with Federal land management agencies to develop a series of planned structured science syntheses to support environmental effects analyses that agencies conduct under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). This report synthesizes science information relevant to environmental effects analyses concerned with potential increases in the distribution and abundance of invasive annual grasses (IAGs) from proposed vegetation treatments for habitat restoration. The focal environments for this synthesis are rangelands in the intermontane valleys of Montana and the northern Great Plains of Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota. The synthesis is organized to align with the standard elements of NEPA analyses and provides information on relevant scientific studies, data availability, analysis methods, and mitigation measures. We found that the likelihood of increasing IAGs from vegetation treatments depends on treatment type and environmental context. In sagebrush ecosystems of the focal region, prescribed fire often reduces or does not increase IAGs. Treatments that cause soil disturbances, such as mechanical removals of sagebrush or firebreak constructions, are more likely to increase IAGs than other treatments. Herbicides applied to reduce sagebrush cover have not increased the proportion of IAGs in the plant community. Temperature and precipitation have been strong factors in determining IAG responses to vegetation treatments in sagebrush ecosystems of the focal region, where more precipitation in spring and summer likely provides a competitive edge to native, perennial grasses more than winter annual grasses like Bromus tectorum L. (cheatgrass). In grasslands, prescribed fire often reduces IAGs, but effects depend on the abundance of native species and are often short lived. Mowing can increase or decrease IAGs in grassland ecosystems. Grassland site conditions, such as southeast-facing slopes, sandier or rockier sites, or lower native species cover or richness affect the likelihood of invasion by annual grasses. Maintaining adequate cover of perennial vegetation creates rangelands that are resistant and resilient to annual grass invasions. Managers can minimize invasion potential by focusing on treatment type, placement, and seasonal timing. Herbicides also can provide effective mitigation, especially in combination with other controls such as prescribed fire or grazing. This report can be incorporated by reference in NEPA documentation, included in a project record, or provide a general reference for understanding and identifying literature about increases in IAGs associated with vegetation treatments in rangelands in this focal region.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

Perspectives on challenges and opportunities at the restoration-policy interface in the U.S.A.

As we advance into the United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration, understanding the relationship between science, management, and policy is increasingly important given the paucity of research evaluating the ability of existing policy to address contemporary environmental challenges. Despite their inherent interdependence, restoration ecology as a scientific discipline, ecological restoration as a practice, and the policies driving restoration efforts do not always represent a unified force. Accenting the policies and practices within the United States, we present our perspective on challenges associated with this disunion, including those linked to social dimensions of restoration and limitations associated with existing policy. We provide a review of existing federal policy in the United States and synthesize suggestions that have emerged in the literature to fortify connections between restoration science and policy. We also describe social challenges to meeting restoration goals, including barriers surrounding power dynamics, trust, and communication, as well as divergent incentives, perspectives, and values. We propose potential solutions that exist in transdisciplinary collaboration and knowledge sharing, and evidence-based, balanced decision-making that equally considers varying perspectives. With the understanding that current conservation practices are not enough to mitigate environmental degradation, we focus on streamlining problem-solving strategies to support restoration and face the widespread ecological issues of today.

Restoration Ecology↗

Agency approach to allocation of human capital and program composition for human-marine mammal interaction management in the United States

Introduction: Marine mammals have served important and diverse roles throughout human history. Once exploited to near extinction, many species in the United States (U.S.) have recovered dramatically under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA). The U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) has jurisdiction to administer the MMPA for cetaceans and most pinnipeds. While most take is now prohibited, NMFS still dedicates significant time and resources to protecting and conserving marine mammals. As human populations continue to grow and exploit marine environments, opportunities for human-marine mammal interactions (HMMI) have increased. Resources may fail to keep up with growing needs for conservation investments, so that many agencies struggle to adequately meet social and legal requirements. Methods: This study evaluated NMFS’ approach to addressing HMMI through a mixed-methods (semi-structured interviews, quantitative questionnaire, and facilitated workshops) expert elicitation analysis of resource allocation (i.e., staff time) and priorities of NMFS Science Center (SC) and Regional Office (RO) staff across five geographic regions to understand how employee time is allocated, the degree to which employee time allocation is aligned with self-reported job descriptions, and employee perceptions of actions or investments which would improve their ability to mitigate HMMI. Results and Discussion: SC staff reported spending more time on Biological and Administrative tasks , while RO staff allocated more time to Policy, Social science , and Outreach tasks . SC employees spent less time on Biological tasks than specified by their perceived job descriptions, suggesting resource constraints. Participants identified Biological research and monitoring as top priorities, followed by Policy tasks . Identified actions included increasing research capacity, enhancing enforcement, expanding social science expertise, and improving outreach programs. The study reveals mismatches between mandated activities and available resources, suggesting strategic reallocation or increased funding may benefit the agency in effectively addressing growing HMMI challenges.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗

Leaders' perspectives in the Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative

The Yellowstone to Yukon Conservation Initiative (Y2Y) was created in 1993 to advance conservation in a 1.2 million km2 portion of the North American Rocky Mountains. We assembled 21 people with influence over Y2Y in a workshop to elucidate perspectives on challenges and solutions for this organization at a key point in its evolution, and used Q method to define four perspectives on challenges and three on solutions. Participants were differentiated by four models for effecting change-vision-based advocacy, practice-based learning, political engagement, and scientific management-with emphasis on the first three. Those with authority in Y2Y aligned with vision-based advocacy and expressed ambivalence about practice-based adaptive learning and rigorous appraisals of existing strategies. Workshop results were consistent with an apparent trend toward organizational maturation focused on stabilizing revenues, developing formal organizational arrangements, and focusing strategies. Consolidation of power in Y2Y around a long-standing formula does not bode well for the effectiveness of Y2Y. We recommend that leaders in Y2Y and similar organizations focused on large-scale conservation to create and maintain an open system-philosophically and operationally-that capitalizes on the diverse perspectives and skills of individuals who are attracted to such efforts. We also recommend that the Y2Y initiative be followed closely to harvest additional lessons for potential application to large-scale conservation efforts elsewhere. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, LLC(outside the USA).2011.

Policy Sciences↗

Biology: Integrating core to essential variables (Bio-ICE) task team report for hard corals

The Interagency Ocean Observation Committee (IOOC) is chartered by the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology (SOST). The purpose of the IOOC is to advise, assist, and make recommendations to the SOST on matters related to ocean observations via task teams such as the Biology - Integrating Core to Essential Variables (Bio-ICE) task team. The goal of the Bio-ICE task team is to advance the integration of biological observations from local, regional, and federal sources using best practices to inform national needs and ultimately feed seamlessly into the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS), as appropriate. To accomplish this goal, and for the first time at the U.S. federal government level, a subgroup of the Bio-ICE task team focused on tropical, shallow-water (0-30 m) hard corals to identify commonalities between the U.S. Integrated Ocean Observing System (IOOS) core biological variable1 of “coral species and abundance,” the GOOS Essential Ocean Variable2 (EOV) “hard coral cover and composition,” the Group on Earth Observations Biological Observation Network (GEO BON) Essential Biodiversity Variables3 (EBVs), and the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) Essential Climate Variables4 (ECVs) (Figure 1). The EOV data allows production of EBVs such as time series of maps of genetic composition, species populations, etc. Recognizing the complementarity of the different essential variable frameworks helps to promote best practices in observing and information management to facilitate data interoperability (Figure 1). The task team was charged with identifying where there are synergies in terms of spatial and temporal observing requirements and existing observation infrastructure and data delivery, including best practices and standard operating procedures. The task team also made suggestions to improve pathways for data flow for observations of these variables from Regional Associations of the U.S. IOOS, other nonfederal partners, and federal sources. The focus of the task team was on identifying and implementing best practices surrounding standardized data collection and data delivery to make continued progress toward adhering to the Findability, Accessibility, Interoperability, and Reuse (FAIR) and Collective benefit, Authority to control, Responsibility, and Ethics (CARE) data principles.

Task Team Report↗

Social and Economic Analysis Branch: integrating policy, social, economic, and natural science

The Fort Collins Science Center's Social and Economic Analysis Branch provides unique capabilities in the U.S. Geological Survey by leading projects that integrate social, behavioral, economic, and natural science in the context of human–natural resource interactions. Our research provides scientific understanding and support for the management and conservation of our natural resources in support of multiple agency missions. We focus on meeting the scientific needs of the Department of the Interior natural resource management bureaus in addition to fostering partnerships with other Federal and State managers to protect, restore, and enhance our environment. The Social and Economic Analysis Branch has an interdisciplinary group of scientists whose primary functions are to conduct both theoretical and applied social science research, provide technical assistance, and offer training to support the development of skills in natural resource management activities. Management and research issues associated with human-resource interactions typically occur in a unique context and require knowledge of both natural and social sciences, along with the skill to integrate multiple science disciplines. In response to these challenging contexts, Social and Economic Analysis Branch researchers apply a wide variety of social science concepts and methods which complement our rangeland/agricultural, wildlife, ecology, and biology capabilities. The goal of the Social and Economic Analysis Branch's research is to enhance natural-resource management, agency functions, policies, and decisionmaking.

Fact Sheet↗

The global environmental agenda urgently needs a semantic web of knowledge

Progress in key social-ecological challenges of the global environmental agenda (e.g., climate change, biodiversity conservation, Sustainable Development Goals) is hampered by a lack of integration and synthesis of existing scientific evidence. Facing a fast-increasing volume of data, information remains compartmentalized to pre-defined scales and fields, rarely building its way up to collective knowledge. Today's distributed corpus of human intelligence, including the scientific publication system, cannot be exploited with the efficiency needed to meet current evidence synthesis challenges; computer-based intelligence could assist this task. Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based approaches underlain by semantics and machine reasoning offer a constructive way forward, but depend on greater understanding of these technologies by the science and policy communities and coordination of their use. By labelling web-based scientific information to become readable by both humans and computers, machines can search, organize, reuse, combine and synthesize information quickly and in novel ways. Modern open science infrastructure—i.e., public data and model repositories—is a useful starting point, but without shared semantics and common standards for machine actionable data and models, our collective ability to build, grow, and share a collective knowledge base will remain limited. The application of semantic and machine reasoning technologies by a broad community of scientists and decision makers will favour open synthesis to contribute and reuse knowledge and apply it toward decision making.

Environmental Evidence↗

Science needs for continued development of total nitrogen deposition budgets in the United States

The objectives of this white paper are to describe the state of the science with respect to total Nr deposition budgets in North America and the research needed to improve these budgets from both a measurement and modeling standpoint. The document is intended to serve as a plan for TDep research activities but also, more broadly, to provide program managers, natural resource managers, policy makers and scientists with an understanding of the need for complete and accurate Nr deposition budgets to protect ecosystem health and human welfare, and the linkages between the underlying policy-relevant science questions and the specific knowledge and data gaps needed to improve Nr deposition budgets.

Report↗

Assessing the value and usage of data management planning and data management plans within the U.S. Geological Survey

As of 2016, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Fundamental Science Practices require data management plans (DMPs) for all USGS and USGS-funded research. The USGS Science Data Management Branch of the Science Analytics and Synthesis Program has been working to help the USGS (Bureau) meet this requirement. However, USGS researchers still encounter common data management-related challenges that may be reduced or eliminated by better planning. In 2021, USGS staff were given a series of surveys aimed to better understand current data management planning practices, perceptions, and needs. The survey results indicated that adoption and integration of data management planning and DMPs into USGS research project workflows are broad, if inconsistent, across USGS Science Centers and programs. The USGS Science Data Management Branch can help improve clarity and guidance on the purpose, intended audience, content, workflows, and evaluation processes for DMPs. It would also be beneficial to provide additional supporting cyberinfrastructure to support DMP activities. Survey responses indicated it would be beneficial for the Science Data Management Branch to develop a strategy, other than through DMPs, for teaching and encouraging good data management practices. Although these surveys were an opportunity for USGS staff to provide feedback on their experiences, the surveys may also have revealed the desire for more frequent evaluations, cross-disciplinary communication, and training on research data management and DMP development and integration, in the context of USGS policy, Fundamental Science Practices requirements, and overall Bureau expectations. Data management-related roles such as data manager or steward, information technologist, and repository manager may need to be formally recognized as skilled professional career positions within the Bureau. At a minimum, the best practice for USGS would be to create and maintain DMPs as living documents, integrated with existing systems that are broadly accessible to all stakeholders, and include quantitatively measurable benefits tied directly to a clearly defined purpose.

Open-File Report↗

Toward a US framework for continuity of satellite observations of Earth's climate and for supporting societal resilience

There is growing urgency for improved public and commercial services to support a resilient, secure, and thriving United States (US) in the face of mounting decision-support needs for environmental stewardship and hazard response, as well as for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Sustained space-based Earth observations are critical infrastructure to support the delivery of science and decision-support information with local, national, and global utility. This is reflected in part through the United States' sustained support of a suite of weather and land-imaging satellites. However, outside of these two areas, the US lacks an overarching, systematic plan or framework to identify, prioritize, fund, and implement sustained space-based Earth observations to meet the Nation's full range of needs for science, government policy, and societal support. To aid and accelerate the discussion on our nation's needs, challenges and opportunities associated with sustained critical space-based Earth observations, the Keck Institute for Space Studies (KISS) sponsored a multi-week think-tank study to offer ways forward. Based on this study, the KISS study team suggests the establishment of a robust coordination framework to help address US needs for sustained Earth observations. This coordination framework could account for: (a) approaches to identify and prioritize satellite observations needed to meet US needs for science and services, (b) the rapidly evolving landscape of space-based Earth viewing architecture options and technology improvements with increasing opportunities and lower cost access to space, and (c) the technical and programmatic underpinnings required for proper and comprehensive data stewardship to support a wide range of research and public services.

Earth's Future↗

Nitrogen in the Chesapeake Bay watershed—A century of change, 1950–2050

Foreword Sustaining the quality of the Nation’s water resources and the health of our diverse ecosystems depends on the availability of sound water-resources data and information to develop effective, science-based policies. Effective management of water resources also brings more certainty and efficiency to important economic sectors. Taken together, these actions lead to immediate and long-term economic, social, and environmental benefits that will make a difference to the lives of the almost 400 million people projected to live in the United States by 2050. The Chesapeake Bay is the largest and most productive estuary in the United States and is a vital environmental and economic resource. Approximately half of the water volume of the Chesapeake Bay originates from streams and rivers that drain the 64,243 mi 2 Chesapeake Bay watershed. The Bay and its tributaries have been degraded by excessive nutrients, such as nitrogen, from contributing watersheds. Inputs of nitrogen to the Bay lead to increased algal growth, decreased dissolved oxygen, and declining fisheries. In 2000, the Chesapeake Bay was listed as impaired under the Clean Water Act and Total Maximum Daily Loads (TMDLs) for nutrients and sediment have been established to assist with management actions aimed at nutrient reductions. Effective nutrient management requires an understanding of past, present, and future nutrient sources, fate, and transport in the watershed. The Chesapeake Bay community has been a pioneer in science, management, and regulation to improve water quality. Factors like climate, hydrology, source inputs, and management controls play a vital role in determining the delivery and magnitude of nitrogen inputs to the Bay. Science in the form of monitoring data, predictive tools, and interpretive reports can help inform decisions to better balance the use and control of nitrogen in coastal areas. The findings in this report can contribute to effective management of the Bay and its watershed by providing a synthesis of the understanding of how human activities and environmental change in the watershed in the past, present, and future will influence the export of nitrogen to the Bay. We hope this publication will provide you with insights and information to meet your water resource needs and will foster increased civilian awareness and involvement in the protection and restoration of our Nation’s waters. The information in this report is intended primarily for those interested or involved in resource management and protection, conservation, regulation, and policymaking at the regional and national levels.

Chesapeake Bay watershed↗

Multilevel learning in the adaptive management of waterfowl harvests: 20 years and counting

In 1995, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service implemented an adaptive harvest management program (AHM) for the sport harvest of midcontinent mallards ( Anas platyrhynchos ). The program has been successful in reducing long-standing contentiousness in the regulatory process, while integrating science and policy in a coherent, rigorous, and transparent fashion. After 20 years, much has been learned about the relationship among waterfowl populations, their environment, and hunting regulations, with each increment of learning contributing to better management decisions. At the same time, however, much has been changing in the social, institutional, and environmental arenas that provide context for the AHM process. Declines in hunter numbers, competition from more pressing conservation issues, and global-change processes are increasingly challenging waterfowl managers to faithfully reflect the needs and desires of stakeholders, to account for an increasing number of institutional constraints, and to (probabilistically) predict the consequences of regulatory policy in a changing environment. We review the lessons learned from the AHM process so far, and describe emerging challenges and ways in which they may be addressed. We conclude that the practice of AHM has greatly increased an awareness of the roles of social values, trade-offs, and attitudes toward risk in regulatory decision-making. Nevertheless, going forward the waterfowl management community will need to focus not only on the relationships among habitat, harvest, and waterfowl populations, but on the ways in which society values waterfowl and how those values can change over time.

Wildlife Society Bulletin↗

Methodology for an integrative assessment of China's ecological restoration programs

While research projects have been conducted to examine the impacts and effectiveness of China's ecological restoration programs, few of them represent integrated, systematic efforts. The objective of this chapter is thus to articulate and outline a methodology for an integrative assessment, which, we believe, should embrace both the environmental and socioeconomic changes and engage investigations at multiple scales. Further, these investigations should be pursued through interdisciplinary collaboration with expertise from ecology, economics, hydrology, and geospatial, climate, and land change sciences. We argue that the deployment of geospatial capability, the use of longitudinal data, and the connection between science and policy should be the hallmarks of an integrative assessment. We also describe our general approach and specific models to quantify the environmental and socioeconomic impacts induced by implementing the restoration programs, and address the issue of how to overcome the challenges in generating the data needed for executing various empirical tasks. We hope that the adoption and application of this methodology will make a valuable contribution to a more robust and timely assessment as well as implementation of the ecological restoration programs in and outside of China.

Book chapter↗

Human dignity in concept and practice

Dignity seems to be something that virtually all people want. It is a seminal expression of the human experience that gains authority through the convergent demands of people worldwide. Even so, the human dignity concept is in unhelpful disarray. Dignity is variously viewed as an antecedent, a consequence, a value, a principle, and an experience, from philosophical, legal, pragmatic, psychological, behavioral, and cultural perspectives. We ask which if any of these human dignity concepts will likely serve our global common interests best, as both common ground and policy diagnostic? We examine four broad themes: dignity as (1) a metaphysical justification for human rights and duties, (2) virtuous comportment or behavior, (3) a perspective of “other,” and (4) a subjective experience of the individual, contingent on a broad and equitable sharing of values. We recommend viewing dignity as a commonwealth of individually assessed well-being, shaped by relationships with others, affected by the physical world, and framed in terms of values. Viewed this way, the idea of dignity accommodates the priorities of both individualistic and communitarian cultures. Conceiving of human dignity as a commonwealth of subjectively experienced value production and enjoyment has many practical policy implications.

Policy Sciences↗

The discourses of incidents: Cougars on Mt. Elden and in Sabino Canyon, Arizona

Incidents are relatively short periods of intensified discourse that arise from public responses to symbolically important actions by public officials, and an important part of the conflict that increasingly surrounds state wildlife management in the West. In an effort to better understand incidents as a facet of this conflict, we analyzed the discourses of two incidents in Arizona that were precipitated by the intended removal of cougars by managers in response to public safety concerns. We used newspaper content, 1999–2007, to elucidate seminal patterns of public discourses and discourse coalitions as well as differences in discursive focus between incident periods and background periods. Cougars were mentioned in newspaper articles 13–33 times more often during incidents compared with background periods. State wildlife agency commissioners and hunters were part of a discourse coalition that advocated killing cougars to solve problems, blamed cougars and those who promoted the animals’ intrinsic value and sought to retain power to define and solve cougar-related problems. Personnel from affected state and federal agencies expressed a similar discourse. Environmentalists, animal protection activists, and some elected officials were of a coalition that defined “the problem” primarily in terms of people’s behaviors, including behaviors associated with current institutional arrangements. This discourse advocated decentralizing power over cougar management. The discourses reflected different preferences for the allocations of power and use of lethal versus non-lethal methods, which aligned with apparent core beliefs and participants’ enfranchisement or disenfranchisement by current state-level management power arrangements.

Arizona↗

Opportunities to better integrate inland fish and fisheries in multilateral environmental agreements

Inland fish and fisheries are globally important to environmental function and human services, yet their persistent lack of recognition in global agreements, especially multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs), may hinder progress towards biodiversity conservation and human well-being. The connection between inland fish, fisheries, and their ecosystems means that addressing the needs of fish directly offers opportunities to meet multiple global commitments and provide indicators of progress towards many global goals. In this perspective, we highlight opportunities to better integrate inland fish and fisheries into MEAs, specifically the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), Convention on Wetlands (commonly known as the Ramsar Convention), Convention on Conservation of Migratory Species (CMS), Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES), and World Heritage Convention (WHC). Greater attention on inland fish and fisheries through MEAs could help ensure more holistic planning, investment, and conservation of these important fish and fisheries, their biodiversity, the essential resources they provision, and the environments they inhabit.

Environmental Science & Policy↗