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Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) ‐ New functionality for predicting changes in distribution of submerged aquatic vegetation in response to sea level rise

Introduction Submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV) is an ecologically important habitat world‐wide. In Pacific Northwest (PNW) estuaries, SAV in the lower intertidal and shallow subtidal habitats are dominated by the native seagrass, Zostera marina Linnaeus, 1753. Within this report, SAV and seagrass refer to Z. marina seagrass beds in PNW estuaries. Z. marina provides important habitat for juvenile salmon, dungeness crabs, migratory shore birds, and benthic assemblages (e.g., Philips, 1984; Williamson, 2006; Ferraro and Cole, 2007; Shaughnessy et al., 2012). Z. marina typically occurs in a narrow depth range. For example, in Oregon estuaries Zostera marina primarily occurs within the depth range of ‐1 to +1 m relative to Mean Lower Low Water (MLLW) (Young et al. 2012). Because of their narrow depth range, the distribution of these seagrass beds are potentially vulnerable to sea level rise (SLR) through increased water depths and associated reductions in underwater light levels, alterations in tidal variations, altered water movement and wave action, and increased seawater intrusion (Short and Neckles, 1999). The “Sea‐Level Affecting Marshes Model” (SLAMM) is a moderate resolution model used to predict the effects of sea level rise on marsh habitats (Craft et al. 2009). SLAMM has been used extensively on both the west coast (e.g., Glick et al., 2007) and east coast (e.g., Geselbracht et al., 2011) of the United States to evaluate potential changes in the distribution and extent of tidal marsh habitats. However, a limitation of the current version of SLAMM, (Version 6.2) is that it lacks the ability to model distribution changes in seagrass habitat resulting from sea level rise. Because of the ecological importance of SAV habitats, U.S. EPA, USGS, and USDA partnered with Warren Pinnacle Consulting to enhance the SLAMM modeling software to include new functionality in order to predict changes in Zostera marina distribution within Pacific Northwest estuaries in response to sea level rise. Specifically, the objective was to develop a SAV model that used generally available GIS data and parameters that were predictive and that could be customized for other estuaries that have GIS layers of existing SAV distribution. This report describes the procedure used to develop the SAV model for the Yaquina Bay Estuary, Oregon, appends a statistical script based on the open source R software to generate a similar SAV model for other estuaries that have data layers of existing SAV, and describes how to incorporate the model coefficients from the site‐specific SAV model into SLAMM to predict the effects of sea level rise on Zostera marina distributions. To demonstrate the applicability of the R tools, we utilize them to develop model coefficients for Willapa Bay, Washington using site‐specific SAV data.

Oregon

Recent population size, trends, and limiting factors for the double-crested Cormorant in Western North America

The status of the double-crested cormorant ( Phalacrocorax auritus ) in western North America was last evaluated during 1987–2003. In the interim, concern has grown over the potential impact of predation by double-crested cormorants on juvenile salmonids ( Oncorhynchus spp.), particularly in the Columbia Basin and along the Pacific coast where some salmonids are listed for protection under the United States Endangered Species Act. Recent re-evaluations of double-crested cormorant management at the local, flyway, and federal level warrant further examination of the current population size and trends in western North America. We collected colony size data for the western population (British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, Idaho, California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, and the portions of Montana, Wyoming, Colorado and New Mexico west of the Continental Divide) by conducting aircraft-, boat-, or ground-based surveys and by cooperating with government agencies, universities, and non-profit organizations. In 2009, we estimated approximately 31,200 breeding pairs in the western population. We estimated that cormorant numbers in the Pacific Region (British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, and California) increased 72% from 1987–1992 to circa 2009. Based on the best available data for this period, the average annual growth rate (λ) of the number of breeding birds in the Pacific Region was 1.03, versus 1.07 for the population east of the Continental Divide during recent decades. Most of the increase in the Pacific Region can be attributed to an increase in the size of the nesting colony on East Sand Island in the Columbia River estuary, which accounts for about 39% of all breeding pairs in the western population and is the largest known breeding colony for the species (12,087 breeding pairs estimated in 2009). In contrast, numbers of breeding pairs estimated in coastal British Columbia and Washington have declined by approximately 66% during this same period. Disturbance at breeding colonies by bald eagles ( Haliaeetus leucocephalus ) and humans are likely limiting factors on the growth of the western population at present. Because of differences in biology and management, the western population of double-crested cormorants warrants consideration as a separate management unit from the population east of the Continental Divide.

Journal of Wildlife Management

Evidence for population bottlenecks and subtle genetic structure in the yellow rail

The Yellow Rail (Coturnicops noveboracencis) is among the most enigmatic and least studied North American birds. Nesting exclusively in marshes and wetlands, it breeds largely east of the Rocky Mountains in the northern United States and Canada, but there is an isolated population in southern Oregon once believed extirpated. The degree of connectivity of the Oregon population with the main population is unknown. We used mitochondrial DNA sequences (mtDNA) and six microsatellite loci to characterize the Yellow Rail's genetic structure and diversity patterns in six areas. Our mtDNA-based analyses of genetic structure identified significant population differentiation, but pairwise comparison of regions identified no clear geographic trends. In contrast, microsatellites suggested subtle genetic structure differentiating the Oregon population from those in the five regions sampled in the Yellow Rail's main breeding range. The genetic diversity of the Oregon population was also the lowest of the six regions sampled, and Oregon was one of three regions that demonstrated evidence of recent population bottlenecks. Factors that produced population reductions may include loss of wetlands to development and agricultural conversion, drought, and wildfire. At this time, we are unable to determine if the high percentage (50%) of populations having experienced bottlenecks is representative of the Yellow Rail's entire range. Further genetic data from additional breeding populations will be required for this issue to be addressed.

The Condor

Effects of heptachlor- and lindane-treated seed on Canada geese

A study of Canada geese (B. canadensis) was conducted in the Pacific Northwest from 1978 through 1981. Lowered reproductive success, mortality of adults, and a population decline of resident western Canada geese (B. c. moffitti) at the Umatilla National Wildlife Refuge (Umatilla NWR) Oregon and Washington [USA] were associated with the use of heptachlor-treated wheat. Analyses of eggs and tissues from dead geese provided strong evidence that heptachlor was responsible for the mortality and decreased production. Residues of heptachlor epoxide (HE) in brains of B. c. moffitti found dead in 1978 and 1979 equalled or exceeded the lethal hazard zone of 8-9 .mu.g/g in experimental passerine birds; HE residues of > 10 .mu.g/g in sample eggs were associated with low nest success. The breeding population of Canada geese at Umatilla decreased from 129 pairs in 1974 to about 100 pairs in 1979. The heptachlor problem was restricted to the Umatilla area; HE residues were low in tissues and eggs collected at other sites in Oregon, Washington and Idaho. In Sept., 1979, the use of heptachlor-treated seed was banned in a 1700-km2 area that encompassed both sides of the Columbia River near Umatilla. Lindane was substituted for heptachlor in the restricted area in 1979, and its use was extended to much of the Columbia Basin in 1981. Concurrently, reproductive success of geese increased, mortality decreased, and the nesting population increased to 170 pairs by 1983. There was no evidence for either biomagnification of lindance residues from treated seed to goose tissues or eggs or for induction of adverse effects by this compound.

Oregon, Washington

Postbreeding movements and molting ecology of female gadwalls and mallards

The wing molt is an important annual life-history event that occurs in waterfowl and molt site selection can play an important role in determining survival. We tracked postbreeding movements of gadwall ( Mareca strepera ) and mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) females that bred in the Suisun Marsh (Suisun) of California, USA, to determine molt site selection and wing molt chronology. We attached backpack transmitters with global positioning system and global system for mobile communications (GPS-GSM) technology to female gadwalls and mallards within Suisun and tracked the birds following the breeding season during 2015–2018. We determined molt locations for 52 female gadwalls and 112 female mallards. Thirty of the marked gadwall females selected 2 regions within southern Oregon-northeastern California (SONEC) to undergo molt; 16 molted in the Upper Klamath Basin (southern OR) and 14 in the Lower Klamath Basin (northeastern CA). A large portion of female mallards molted in Suisun ( n = 34) and the Sacramento Valley in California ( n = 31) but also used the Upper Klamath Basin ( n = 13), Lower Klamath Basin ( n = 12), and the Yolo–Delta region in California ( n = 12). On average, gadwalls departed Suisun on 30 July (±17.82 days [SD]), and mallards departed on 24 July (±22.69 days). Mean start date of molt for each species was similar: 27 August (±16.09 days) for gadwalls and 26 August (±21.03 days) for mallards. Molt end date was analogous for each species as well. Molt ended on average 1 October (±15.52 days) for gadwalls and on 5 October (±18.34 days) for mallards. Gadwalls and mallards showed intraspecific differences in average molt start and end date within the 3 main geographical zones: Suisun, Central Valley of California (Central Valley), and SONEC. Mean duration of wing molt for gadwalls was 34.72± 8.62 days and 41.09 ± 12.54 days for mallards. Both species primarily selected permanent marsh to undergo wing molt (gadwalls = 90.4%, mallards = 63.4%). Conservation and active management of these high-use molting areas used by California's primary breeding waterfowl species could enhance postbreeding survival, leading to increased breeding waterfowl populations.

California, Nevada, Oregon

Waterfowl distribution and abundance during spring migration in Southern Oregon and Northeastern California

We used aerial surveys to study abundance and distribution of waterfowl (ducks, geese, swans, and coots) during spring in southern Oregon and northeastern California (SONEC). Total waterfowl-use days in SONEC during the 119-day, 5 January-3 May, spring period was similar during 2002 (127,977,700) and 2003 (128,076,200) and averaged 1,075,900 birds per day (bpd); these estimates should be adjusted upward 4%-10% to account for areas not surveyed. Waterfowl abundance peaked in mid-March in both years: 2,095,700 in 2002 and 1,681,700 in 2003. Northern Pintail (Anas acuta) was the most abundant species in both years, accounting for 25.6% of the 2002 and 24.5% of the 2003 waterfowl-use days. Pintail abundance peaked during the 13 March survey at 689,300 in 2002 and 532,100 in 2003. All other dabbling ducks accounted for 27.6% and 28.6%, diving ducks for 13.5% and 9.2%, geese for 24.6% and 29.3%, swans for 2.8% and 1.0%, and coots for 5.8% and 6.4% of the spring waterfowl-use days in SONEC during 2002 and 2003, respectively. Although use days changed little for total waterfowl (+0.08%) and dabbling ducks (-0.1%), diving duck use was lower (-32%), and goose use days were greater (+19%) in 2003 than in 2002. Distribution was similar in both years, with the most waterfowl use in the Lower (66%) and Upper (14%) Klamath subregions; 2%-6% occurred in each of the other subregions. Although the Lower Klamath subregion received the greatest overall waterfowl use, distribution among subregions varied among species and surveys, and all subregions were important during some part of the spring for 1 or more species. Peak spring abundance in SONEC during 2002 and 2003 averaged 50.3% of the midwinter abundance in California (all survey regions) and southern Oregon (69-3 survey region) for all waterfowl, 46.1% for dabbling ducks, 62.4% for diving ducks, 68.8% for geese, 109.4% for swans, and 43.8% for coots. Each spring, 75% of all waterfowl use in SONEC occurred on federal, state, or Nature Conservancy lands (i.e., protected areas). On protected areas there was a higher percentage of dabbling ducks (80.5%), geese (70.5%), and coots (81.5%) than diving ducks (60.4%) and swans (49%). Waterfowl use of Klamath Basin National Wildlife Refuge (NWR) averaged 42% greater during spring 2002-2003 (568,500 bpd) than during 1998-2001 (Gilmer et al. 2004). Numerous factors likely impacted magnitude and distribution of waterfowl use of SONEC during spring, including weather, waterfowl populations, SONEC habitat, and species ecology. SONEC is a critical spring staging area for waterfowl that winter in the Central Valley of California and other Pacific Flyway regions and should be a major focus area for waterfowl-habitat conservation efforts.

Western North American Naturalist

Landscape Features Shape Genetic Structure in Threatened Northern Spotted Owls

Several recent studies have shown that landscape features can strongly affect spatial patterns of gene flow and genetic variation. Understanding landscape effects on genetic variation is important in conservation for defining management units and understanding movement patterns. The landscape may have little effect on gene flow, however, in highly mobile species such as birds. We tested for genetic breaks associated with landscape features in the northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina), a threatened subspecies associated with old forests in the U.S. Pacific Northwest and extreme southwestern Canada. We found little evidence for distinct genetic breaks in northern spotted owls using a large microsatellite dataset (352 individuals from across the subspecies' range genotyped at 10 loci). Nonetheless, dry low-elevation valleys and the Cascade and Olympic Mountains restrict gene flow, while the Oregon Coast Range facilitates it. The wide Columbia River is not a barrier to gene flow. In addition, inter-individual genetic distance and latitude were negatively related, likely reflecting northward colonization following Pleistocene glacial recession. Our study shows that landscape features may play an important role in shaping patterns of genetic variation in highly vagile taxa such as birds.

Open-File Report

Megafires and thick smoke portend big problems for migratory birds

In 2020, the fire season affecting the western United States reached unprecedented levels. The 116 fires active in September consumed nearly 20,822 km 2 ( https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/accessible-view/ Accessed 2020-09-29) with eighty percent of this footprint (16,567 km 2 ) from 68 fires occurring within California, Oregon, and Washington. Although the 2020 fire season was the most extreme on record, it exemplified patterns of increased wildfire size, number, timing, return frequency, and extent which are linked to climate-driven changes in precipitation and temperature affecting fire ignition and severity (Westerling 2016, Goss et al. 2020, Weber and Yadav 2020).

California, Oregon, Washington

Wetland connectivity and waterbird conservation in the western Great Basin of the United States: Introduction to workshop

As scientists, managers and landowners, we have come to realize that to best understand the local and regional value of individual wetlands, we need to take a broad geographic, taxonomic, and management view. In December 1994, a symposium was held in Reno, Nevada that addressed this topic for shorebirds by bringing together researchers and managers from the Western Great Basin to discuss shorebird research and management in the region (Reed et al. 1997, International Wader Studies 9). In February 1998, a similar, but broader, symposium was held in Bend, Oregon that addressed wetland connectivity and waterbird conservation in the Western Great Basin. Over 100 participants spent one day listening to talks from waterbird researchers that focused on multi-scale habitat use and movements of birds in the region. From American Avocets Recurvirostra americana to White Pelicans Pelcanus erythrorhynchos we learned of phenomenal intra-season movements throughout the Basin and the value of collecting detailed data of this nature for representative waterbirds. We learned also about the National Shorebird Conservation Plan and spent the next day in discussion groups where future research and management priorities were outlined. These discussions were the first regional planning effort for the National Plan.

Great Basin

Variation in inbreeding rates across the range of Northern Spotted Owls (Strix occidentalis caurina): Insights from over 30 years of monitoring data

Inbreeding has been difficult to quantify in wild populations because of incomplete parentage information. We applied and extended a recently developed framework for addressing this problem to infer inbreeding rates in Northern Spotted Owls ( Strix occidentalis caurina ) across the Pacific Northwest, USA. Using pedigrees from 14,187 Northern Spotted Owls, we inferred inbreeding rates for 14 types of matings among relatives that produce pedigree inbreeding coefficients of F = 0.25 or F = 0.125. Inbreeding was most common in the Washington Cascades, where an estimated 15% of individuals are inbred. Inbreeding was lowest in western Oregon (3.5%) and northern California (2.7%), and intermediate for the Olympic Peninsula of Washington (6.1%). Estimates from the Olympic Peninsula were likely underestimates because of small sample sizes and the presence of few pedigrees capable of resolving inbreeding events. Most inbreeding resulted from matings between full siblings or half siblings, although a high rate of inbreeding from mother–son pairs was identified in the Olympic Peninsula. Geographic variation in inbreeding rates may reflect population declines and bottlenecks that have been detected in prior investigations. We show that there is strong selection against inbred birds. Only 3 of 44 inbred birds were later identified as parents (6.8%), whereas 2,823 of 10,380 birds that represented a comparable cross section of the data were later seen as reproducing parents (27.2%). Habitat loss and competition with Barred Owls ( S. varia ) remain primary threats to Northern Spotted Owls. However, given the negative consequences of inbreeding, Spotted Owl populations in Washington with suitable habitat and manageable numbers of Barred Owls may benefit from translocations of individuals from Oregon and California to introduce new genetic variation and reduce future inbreeding events.

California, Oregon, Washington

Geographic variation in the song of Willow Flycatchers: Differentiation between Empidonax traillii adastus and E. t. extimus

The vocal signatures of the primary song form (“ fitz-bew ”) of the endangered Southwestern Willow Flycatcher ( Empidonax traillii extimus ) and its northern counterpart, E. t. adastus, are distinctive. Songs of the extimus subspecies are longer (total song, note, internote) and frequencies at maximum amplitude are lower than those of adastus. I used vocal evidence to clarify the distributional limits of the Southwestern Willow Flycatcher and that of the geographically adjacent subspecies, E. t. adastus. Unweighted pair-group method using averaging (UPGMA) cluster analysis and canonical discriminant analysis revealed that (1) low elevation, southerly desert populations (Arizona, New Mexico, and southern Utah) have a unique vocal identity corresponding to populations in the range of E. t. extimus ; (2) northerly song groups (Oregon, Colorado, and northern Utah) share a different song type corresponding to populations in the range of E. t. adastus; and (3) a departure from vocal and morphological congruence occurs for a population of high-elevation Arizona birds that, although in the currently accepted range of E. t. extimus, sings songs acoustically similar to more northern populations ( E. t. adastus ). Multiple regression of song distance on latitude and elevation, and a comparison of a matrix of song distances with a matrix of latitude and elevation dissimilarities, demonstrated that song populations sort out by both latitude and elevation: birds with the vocal identity of extimus occur as far north as 37°N if at low elevation, and those acoustically similar to adastus occur as far south as 33.7°N if at high elevation. The vocal background of northern New Mexico birds appears to be intermediate between that of extimus and adastus, suggesting that northern New Mexico is a zone of intermixing and intergradation between the subspecies. Pure forms of E. t. extimus apparently do not occur in Colorado because even the southernmost populations are acoustically similar to more northerly populations of adastus. A low-elevation population in western Colorado, however, stands apart from other adastus populations, suggesting moderate introgression of extimus genes into the adastus gene pool.

The Auk

Regional fidelity and movement patterns of wintering killdeer in an agricultural landscape

Killdeer ( Charadrius vociferus ) is a common and widespread North American species for which there are few studies of residency patterns and movements. We quantified fidelity and movement patterns of 24 radio-tagged Killdeer in the Willamette Valley of Oregon during the winter of 1999-2000. Results from telemetry surveys and census efforts revealed that the group monitored was composed of winter residents (63%), winter transients (26%), and year-round residents (11%). Movements were localized with birds detected at an average distance of 5.15 ± 0.91 (SE) km from the site of capture. Mean home range size (95% kernel) was 7.73 ± 3.19 km 2 . However, results also indicated periodic exploratory movements, with some birds detected up to 30 km from marking sites. Overall, individuals exhibited a low degree of fidelity to specific sites and were detected at an average of 11.9 ± 1.1 sites. No differences were found in monthly movement patterns. In almost all cases, year-round residents were more sedentary than winter residents and winter transients. Results indicate a complex regional population structure and highlight the need to consider both migrant and resident birds, as well as seasonal differences in habitat needs and space use requirements, in future conservation planning efforts.

Oregon

User’s guide to the North Pacific Pelagic Seabird Database 2.0

The North Pacific Pelagic Seabird Database (NPPSD) was created in 2005 to consolidate data on the oceanic distribution of marine bird species in the North Pacific. Most of these data were collected on surveys by counting species within defined areas and at known locations (that is, on strip transects). The NPPSD also contains observations of other bird species and marine mammals. The original NPPSD combined data from 465 surveys conducted between 1973 and 2002, primarily in waters adjacent to Alaska. These surveys included 61,195 sample transects with location, environment, and metadata information, and the data were organized in a flat-file format. In developing NPPSD 2.0, our goals were to add new datasets, to make significant improvements to database functionality and to provide the database online. NPPSD 2.0 includes data from a broader geographic range within the North Pacific, including new observations made offshore of the Russian Federation, Japan, Korea, British Columbia (Canada), Oregon, and California. These data were imported into a relational database, proofed, and structured in a common format. NPPSD 2.0 contains 351,674 samples (transects) collected between 1973 and 2012, representing a total sampled area of 270,259 square kilometers, and extends the time series of samples in some areas—notably the Bering Sea—to four decades. It contains observations of 16,988,138 birds and 235,545 marine mammals and is available on the NPPSD Web site. Supplementary materials include an updated set of standardized taxonomic codes, reference maps that show the spatial and temporal distribution of the survey efforts and a downloadable query tool.

Open-File Report

Utilizing hunter harvest effort to survey for wildlife disease: a case study of West Nile virus in greater sage-grouse

Greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; sage-grouse) are highly susceptible to infection with West Nile virus (WNV), with substantial mortality reported in wild populations and in experimentally infected birds. Although sage-grouse are hunted throughout much of their range, they have also recently been considered for protection under the Endangered Species Act. We used blood samples collected on filter-paper strips during the 2006–2010 Oregon, USA, annual sage-grouse hunt to survey for specific WNV-neutralizing antibodies that indicate a previous infection with WNV. During this period, hunters submitted 1,880 blood samples from sage-grouse they harvested. Samples obtained were proportional for all 12 Oregon sage-grouse hunting units. Laboratory testing of 1,839 samples by the WNV epitope-blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (bELISA) followed by plaque reduction neutralization test on bELISA-positive samples yielded 19 (1%) and 1 (0.05%) positive samples, respectively. These data provided early baseline information for future comparisons regarding the prevalence of WNV-specific neutralizing antibodies in sage-grouse in Oregon. This methodology may provide other states where sage-grouse (or other species) populations are hunted and where WNV constitutes a species conservation concern with a viable option to track the relative prevalence of the virus in populations.

Oregon

Black brant from Alaska staging and wintering in Japan

Black brant (Branta bernicla nigricans) nest in colonies in arctic Canada, Alaska, and Russia (Derksen and Ward 1993, Sedinger et al. 1993). Virtually the entire population stages in fall at Izembek Lagoon near the tip of the Alaska Peninsula (Bellrose 1976) before southward migration (Dau 1992) to winter habitats in British Columbia, Washington, Oregon, California, and Baja California (Subcommittee on Black Brant 1992). A small number of black brant winter in Japan, Korea, and China (Owen 1980). In Japan 3,000&ndash;5,000 brant of unknown origin stop over in fall, and a declining population (<1,000) of birds winter here, primarily in the northern islands (Brazil 1991, Miyabayashi et al. 1994). Here, we report sightings of brant in Japan that were marked in Alaska and propose a migration route based on historical and recent observations and weather patterns.

Alaska

Postbreeding movements of American Avocets and implications for wetland connectivity in the western Great Basin

Wetlands in the western Great Basin of the United States are patchily distributed and undergo extensive seasonal and annual variation in water levels. The American Avocet ( Recurvirostra americana ) is one of many shorebird species that use these wetlands as breeding and migratory stopover sites and must adjust to variable conditions. We used radio telemetry to determine postbreeding, premigratory movement patterns of avocets throughout the region. In 1996 and 1997, 185 breeding adults were captured and fitted with radio transmitters at five breeding areas in Oregon, California, and Nevada. Regular aerial and ground surveys were conducted at the five main study areas from June through September, or until all avocets had left a site. Other wetlands in the western Great Basin also were surveyed by aircraft for the presence of radio-marked birds. Fifty-six percent of radio-marked avocets were still detected in the region at least eight weeks after capture. Each of these individuals was detected at an average of 2.1 lakes (range 0 to 6), with 74% found at more than one lake system. Forty radio-marked individuals moved at least 200 km between wetlands prior to migration, most of which dispersed northward. Male and female patterns did not differ significantly. Overall, movements may be associated with a prebasic molt, exploitation of a superabundant food source in northern lakes, and reconnaissance for future breeding efforts or staging sites. These results also demonstrate wide-ranging patterns of dispersal in this species and suggest a need for the consideration of large-scale habitat connectivity issues in establishing conservation strategies for shorebirds in the western Great Basin.

The Auk

Assessment of potential risks from renewable energy development and other anthropogenic factors to wintering Golden Eagles in the western United States

Wind and other energy development are expanding rapidly and on an unprecedented scale within the range of the Golden Eagle ( Aquila chrysaetos ) while other anthropogenic-related changes, wildfires, invasive plants, drought, and climate change are altering or destroying native habitats occupied by Golden Eagles. However, the potential effects of these factors on North American Golden Eagle populations are largely unknown and the most recent evidence indicates that the population in the western United States is declining slightly. Impediments to evaluating the potential effects of energy development projects on wintering Golden Eagles include issues of scale and a paucity of available information about eagle winter use areas and ecology. We applied a predictive model of eagle winter distribution developed for Idaho and Montana, to Idaho, Utah, Nevada and eastern Oregon to help identify potential wintering areas and identify risks that occur in those areas. The model identifies ~40% of the four state study area as potentially suitable eagle winter habitat and provides a basis for spatial assessment of possible risk factors to eagles wintering there. We used eBird and Christmas Bird Count citizen science datasets for an independent evaluation of the accuracy of our predictive distribution model. The model was robust, accurately predicting the presence of wintering Golden Eagles significantly more often than expected. We used digital environmental datasets (layers) of potential risk factors, in conjunction with model predicted eagle distribution, to better understand and estimate the extent of risks to the wintering eagle population in the study area. These layers represent available data for some of the factors previously identified as risks in the landscape to wintering Golden Eagles. The majority of predicted eagle wintering areas occurred where there was little habitat fragmentation (<10%). All predicted winter areas contained at least one potential risk factor (e.g., potential for energy development); 39.4% of predicted winter areas contained at least two known risk factors. The greatest number of risks often occurred where the human footprint was highest and where eagles were less likely to occur during winter. Our results can be used to help prioritize field surveys for identifying important Golden Eagle winter areas in the western United States and determine potential locations where energy development is least likely to have negative effects on wintering eagles. Survey efforts can be allocated in consideration of management and conservation objectives based on predicted habitat suitability and risk factors. For example, surveys for areas of high suitability and low risk can identify places to focus management for conservation of eagle winter areas. Further, sites proposed for wind energy development could be reviewed initially based on model predicted eagle wintering areas and then surveyed to determine if permitting for development is appropriate.

Book chapter