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Coastal and marine science of the U.S. Geological Survey in St. Petersburg, Florida

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center (SPCMSC) in St. Petersburg, Florida, investigates processes that form and alter coastal and marine environments and the implications of these processes related to natural hazards, resource sustainability, and environmental change. The center is one of three facilities serving the mission of the USGS Coastal and Marine Hazards and Resources Program, an initiative authorized by Congress in 1962 that serves as the primary Federal program for marine geology and physical science research and is responsible for the Nation’s entire coastal and marine landscape. The center’s staff conducts scientific research around the globe to describe and deepen understanding of the processes that influence coastal and marine ecosystems, such as sandy beaches and barrier islands, salt marshes and estuaries, coral reefs, and the open ocean from the continental shelf to the deep sea. The center includes a diverse workforce of scientists, technicians, administrators, analysts, and technology and information specialists. This team works collaboratively to conduct and share robust scientific research. This document provides a glimpse into the center’s work to better understand the processes shaping coastal and marine environments across the Nation.

Florida

Water use trends and demand projections in the Northwest Florida Water Management District

The Northwest Florida Water Management District is located in the western panhandle of Florida and encompasses about 11,200 square miles. In 1995, the District had an estimated population of 1.13 million, an increase of about 47 percent from the 1975 population of 0.77 million. Over 50 percent of the resident population lives within 10 miles of the coast. In addition, hundreds of thousands of visitors come to the coastal areas of the panhandle during the summer months for recreation or vacation purposes. Water withdrawn to meet demands for public supply, domestic self-supplied, commercial-industrial, agricultural irrigation, and recreational irrigation purposes in the District increased 18 percent (52 million gallons per day) between 1970 and 1995. The greatest increases were for public supply and domestic self-supplied (99 percent increase) and for agricultural irrigation (60 percent increase) between 1970 and 1995. In 1995, approximately 70 percent of the water withdrawn was from ground-water sources, with the majority of this from the Floridan aquifer system. The increasing water demands have affected water levels in the Floridan aquifer system, especially along the coastal areas. The Northwest Florida Water Management District is mandated under the Florida Statutes (Chapter 373) to protect and manage the water resources in this area of the State. The mandate requires that current and future water demands be met, while water resources and water-dependent natural systems are sustained. For this project, curve fitting and extrapolation were used to project most of the variables (population, population served by public supply, and water use) to the years 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020. This mathematical method involves fitting a curve to historical population or water-use data and then extending this curve to arrive at future values. The population within the region is projected to reach 1,596,888 by the year 2020, an increase of 41 percent between 1995 and 2020. Most of the population in this region will continue to reside in the urban areas of Pensacola and Tallahassee, and along the coastal areas. The population served by public water supply is projected to reach 1,353,836 by the year 2020, an increase of nearly 46 percent between 1995 and 2020. Total water demand for the Northwest Florida Water Management District is projected to reach 940.2 million gallons per day in 2000, 1,003.1 million gallons per day in 2010, and 1,059.1 million gallons per day in 2020. Excluding water withdrawn for power generation from these totals, water demands will increase 34 percent between 1995 and 2020, and 58 percent between 1970 and 2020. Specifically, public supply demands are projected to increase 74.1 million gallons per day (53 percent) and domestic self-supplied and small public supply systems demands are projected to increase 9.1 million gallons per day (28 percent) between 1995 and 2020. Commercial- industrial self-supplied demands are projected to increase about 16.9 million gallons per day (13 percent) between 1995 and 2020. Agricultural and recreational irrigation demands combined are projected to increase 16.8 million gallons per day (48 percent) between 1995 and 2020. Water demands for power generation are projected to increase about 53.9 million gallons per day (10 percent) between 1995 and 2020. Although power generation water use shows a projected increase during this time, plant capacities are not expected to change dramatically.

Open-File Report

Evaluation of effects of changes in canal management and precipitation patterns on salinity in Biscayne Bay, Florida, using an integrated surface-water/groundwater model

Biscayne National Park, located in Biscayne Bay in southeast Florida, is one of the largest marine parks in the country and sustains a large natural marine fishery where numerous threatened and endangered species reproduce. In recent years, the bay has experienced hypersaline conditions (salinity greater than 35 practical salinity units) of increasing magnitude and duration. Hypersalinity events were particularly pronounced during April to August 2004 in nearshore areas along the southern and middle parts of the bay. Prolonged hypersaline conditions can cause degradation of water quality and permanent damage to, or loss of, brackish nursery habitats for multiple species of fish and crustaceans as well as damage to certain types of seagrasses that are not tolerant of extreme changes in salinity. To evaluate the factors that contribute to hypersalinity events and to test the effects of possible changes in precipitation patterns and canal flows into Biscayne Bay on salinity in the bay, the U.S. Geological Survey constructed a coupled surface-water/groundwater numerical flow model. The model is designed to account for freshwater flows into Biscayne Bay through the canal system, leakage of salty bay water into the underlying Biscayne aquifer, discharge of fresh and salty groundwater from the Biscayne aquifer into the bay, direct effects of precipitation on bay salinity, indirect effects of precipitation on recharge to the Biscayne aquifer, direct effects of evapotranspiration (ET) on bay salinity, indirect effects of ET on recharge to the Biscayne aquifer, and maintenance of mass balance of both water and solute. The model was constructed using the Flow and Transport in a Linked Overland/Aquifer Density Dependent System (FTLOADDS) simulator, version 3.3, which couples the two-dimensional, surface-water flow and solute-transport simulator SWIFT2D with the density-dependent, groundwater flow an solute-transport simulator SEAWAT. The model was calibrated by a trial-and-error method to fit observed groundwater heads, estimated base flow, and measured bay salinity and temperatures from 1996 to 2004, as well as the location of the freshwater-saltwater interface in the aquifer, by adjusting ET rate limiters, canal vertical hydraulic conductance, leakage rate coefficients (transition-layer thickness and hydraulic conductivity), Manning's n value, and delineation of rainfall zones. Although flow budget calculations indicate that precipitation, ET, and groundwater flux into the bay represent a small portion of the overall budget, these factors may be important in controlling salinity in some parts of the bay, for example the southern parts of the bay where the canal system is not extensively developed or controlled. The balance of precipitation and ET during the wet season generally results in a reduction of bay salinity, whereas the balance of precipitation and ET during the dry season generally results in an increase in bay salinity. During years when wet season precipitation is lower than average, for example less than 70 percent total precipitation for an average year, ET could outweigh precipitation over the bay for essentially the entire year. Hypersaline conditions are prone to occur near the end of the dry season because precipitation rates are generally lower, canal discharge rates (which are strongly correlated to precipitation rates) are also generally lower, and ET rates are higher than during the rest of the year. The hypersalinity event of 2004 followed several years of relatively low precipitation and correspondingly reduced canal structure releases and was unusually extensive, continuing into July. Thus, hypersalinity is ultimately the result of a cumulative deficit of precipitation. The model was used to test the effects of possible changes in canal flux and precipitation. Simulation results showed that by increasing, reducing, or modifying canal discharge rates, the effects on salinity in the bay were more pronounced in the northern part of the bay where there are more canals and canal-control structures. By doubling and halving precipitation, the effects on bay salinity were more pronounced in the southern part of the bay than in the northern part of the bay where there are fewer canals and canal-control structures. The model is designed to quantify factors that contribute to hypersaline conditions in Biscayne Bay and may be less appropriate for addressing other issues or examining conditions substantially different from those described in this report. Model results must be interpreted in light of model limitations, which include representation of the system and conceptual model, uncertainty in physical properties used to describe the system or processes, the scale and discretization of the system, and representation of the boundary conditions.

Florida

Historical fire regime in southern California

The historical variability in fire regime is a conservative indicator of ecosystem sustainability. Understanding the natural role of fire in chaparral ecosystems is therefore necessary for effective fire management.

Fire Management Today

Opinion: Endogenizing culture in sustainability science research and policy

Integrating the analysis of natural and social systems to achieve sustainability has been an international scientific goal for years ( 1 , 2 ). However, full integration has proven challenging, especially in regard to the role of culture ( 3 ), which is often missing from the complex sustainability equation. To enact policies and practices that can achieve sustainability, researchers and policymakers must do a better job of accounting for culture, difficult though this task may be. The concept of culture is complex, with hundreds of definitions that for years have generated disagreement among social scientists ( 4 ). Understood at the most basic level, culture constitutes shared values, beliefs, and norms through which people “see,” interpret, or give meaning to ideas, actions, and environments. Culture is often used synonymously with “worldviews” or “cosmologies” ( 5 , 6 ) to explain the patterned ways of assigning meanings and interpretations among individuals within groups. Used in this way, culture has been found to have only limited empirical support as an explanation of human risk perception ( 7 , 8 ) and environmentalism ( 9 ).

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of

The U.S. Geological Survey Ecosystem Science Strategy, 2012-2022 - Advancing discovery and application through collaboration

Ecosystem science is critical to making informed decisions about natural resources that can sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being. Resource managers and policy-makers are faced with countless decisions each year at local, state, tribal, territorial, and national levels on issues as diverse as renewable and non-renewable energy development, agriculture, forestry, water supply, and resource allocations at the urban-rural interface. The urgency for sound decision-making is increasing dramatically as the world is being transformed at an unprecedented pace and in uncertain directions. Environmental changes are associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, land, food, energy, mineral, and living resources. At risk is the Nation’s environmental capital, the goods and services provided by resilient ecosystems that are vital to the health and well-being of human societies. Ecosystem science—the study of systems of organisms interacting with their environment and the consequences of natural and human-induced change on these systems—is necessary to inform decision-makers as they develop policies to adapt to these changes. This Ecosystems Science Strategy is built on a framework that includes basic and applied science. It highlights the critical roles that USGS scientists and partners can play in building scientific understanding and providing timely information to decision-makers. The strategy underscores the connection between scientific discoveries and the application of new knowledge. The strategy integrates ecosystem science and decision-making, producing new scientific outcomes to assist resource managers and providing public benefits. The USGS is uniquely positioned to play an important role in ecosystem science. With its wide range of expertise, the agency can bring holistic, cross-scale, interdisciplinary capabilities to the design and conduct of monitoring, research, and modeling and to new technologies for data collection, management, and visualization. Collectively, these capabilities can be used to reveal ecological patterns and processes, explain how and why ecosystems change, and forecast change over different spatial and temporal scales. USGS science can provide managers with options and decision-support tools to use resources sustainably. The USGS has long-standing, collaborative relationships with the DOI and other partners in the natural sciences, in both conducting science and its application. The USGS engages these partners in cooperative investigations that otherwise would lack the necessary support or be too expensive for a single bureau to conduct. The heart of this strategy is a framework and vision for USGS ecosystems science that focuses on five long-term goals, which are seen as interconnected and reinforcing components: • Improve understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and processes. The focus for this goal is an understanding of how ecosystems work, including the dynamics of species, their populations, interactions, and genetics, and how they change across spatial and temporal scales. • Advance understanding of how drivers influence ecosystem change. The challenges here are explaining the drivers of ecosystem change, their spatio-temporal patterns, their uncertainties and interactions, and their influence on ecosystem processes and dynamics. • Improve understanding of the services that ecosystems provide to society. Here the emphasis is on the measurement of environmental capital and ecosystem services, and the identification of sources and patterns of change in space and time. • Develop tools, technologies, and capacities to inform decision-making about ecosystems. This includes developing new technologies and approaches for conducting applications-oriented ecosystem science. A principal challenge will be how to quantify uncertainty and incorporate it in decision analysis. • Apply science to enhance strategies for management, conservation, and restoration of ecosystems. These challenges include development of novel approaches to monitoring, assessment, and restoration of ecosystems; new methods to address species of concern and communities at risk; and innovations in decision analysis and support to address imminent ecosystem changes or those that are underway. Closely integrated with the five goals are four strategic approaches that provide the path forward for the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area. These approaches cross-cut all of the goals and are seen as essential to the implementation of this strategy: • Assess information needs for ecosystem science through enhanced partnerships. Work with the DOI and other agencies and institutions to identify, design, and implement priority decision-driven ecological research. • Promote the use of interdisciplinary ecosystem science. Design and conduct interdisciplinary process-oriented research in ecosystem science. • Enhance modeling and forecasting. Build models to forecast ecosystem change, assess future management scenarios, and reduce uncertainties through an adaptive learning process. • Support decision-making. Use quantitative approaches to assess the vulnerabilities of ecosystems, habitats, and species, and evaluate strategies for adaptation, restoration, and sustainable management. Following the strategic approaches are a set of proposed actions that represent a sampling of specific activities that align with this strategy and that address the Nation’s most pressing environmental needs. The strategy emphasizes coordination of activities across the USGS mission areas pursuant to these goals. Ecosystem science is inherently interdisciplinary and requires a broad perspective that incorporates the biological and physical sciences, climate science, information technology, and scientific capacity in mission areas across the Bureau. With its emphasis on coordination, this strategy can provide a critical underpinning for integrated science efforts with scientists from multiple mission areas of the USGS working together. Of course, the USGS will continue to conduct both discipline-specific and interdisciplinary investigations, and both will continue to be vital parts of the ecosystem science portfolio. Finally, the strategy stresses the importance of coordination with other Federal agencies and organizations in the natural resources community. The USGS collaborates with resource agencies in the DOI and other organizations throughout the world to meet societal needs for species and ecosystem management. Working with these agencies and organizations, the USGS will play a key role over the next decade in advancing the scientific foundation for sustaining the natural resources that diverse, productive, resilient ecosystems provide.

Open-File Report

U.S. Geological Survey ecosystems science strategy—Advancing discovery and application through collaboration

Executive Summary Ecosystem science is critical to making informed decisions about natural resources that can sustain our Nation’s economic and environmental well-being. Resource managers and policymakers are faced with countless decisions each year at local, regional, and national levels on issues as diverse as renewable and nonrenewable energy development, agriculture, forestry, water supply, and resource allocations at the urban-rural interface. The urgency for sound decisionmaking is increasing dramatically as the world is being transformed at an unprecedented pace and in uncertain directions. Environmental changes are associated with natural hazards, greenhouse gas emissions, and increasing demands for water, land, food, energy, mineral, and living resources. At risk is the Nation’s environmental capital, the goods and services provided by resilient ecosystems that are vital to the health and wellbeing of human societies. Ecosystem science—the study of systems of organisms interacting with their environment and the consequences of natural and human-induced change on these systems—is necessary to inform decisionmakers as they develop policies to adapt to these changes. This Ecosystems Science Strategy is built on a framework that includes basic and applied science. It highlights the critical roles that U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists and partners can play in building scientific understanding and providing timely information to decisionmakers. The strategy underscores the connection between scientific discoveries and the application of new knowledge, and it integrates ecosystem science and decisionmaking, producing new scientific outcomes to assist resource managers and providing public benefits. We envision the USGS as a leader in integrating scientific information into decisionmaking processes that affect the Nation’s natural resources and human well-being. The USGS is uniquely positioned to play a pivotal role in ecosystem science. With its wide range of expertise, the Bureau can bring holistic, cross-scale, interdisciplinary capabilities to the design and conduct of monitoring, research, and modeling and to new technologies for data collection, management, and visualization. Collectively, these capabilities can be used to reveal ecological patterns and processes, explain how and why ecosystems change, and forecast change over different spatial and temporal scales. USGS science can provide managers with options and decision-support tools to use resources sustainably. The USGS has long-standing, collaborative relationships with the Department of the Interior (DOI) and other partners in the natural sciences, in both conducting science and applying the results. The USGS engages these partners in cooperative investigations that otherwise would lack the necessary support or be too expensive for a single bureau to conduct. The heart of this strategy is a framework for USGS ecosystems science that focuses on five long-term goals, which are seen as interconnected components that reinforce our vision of the USGS providing science that is at the forefront of decisionmaking: Improve understanding of ecosystem structure, function, and processes. The focus for this goal is an understanding of how ecosystems work, including the dynamics of species, their populations, interactions, and genetics, and how they change across spatial and temporal scales. Advance understanding of how drivers influence ecosystem change. The challenges here are explaining the drivers of ecosystem change, their spatio-temporal patterns, their uncertainties and interactions, and their influence on ecosystem processes and dynamics. Improve understanding of the services that ecosystems provide to society. Here the emphasis is on the measurement of environmental capital and ecosystem services, and the identification of sources and patterns of change in space and time. Develop tools, technologies, and capacities to inform decisionmaking about ecosystems. This includes developing new technologies and approaches for conducting applications-oriented ecosystem science. A principal challenge will be how to quantify uncertainty and incorporate it in decision analysis. Apply science to enhance strategies for management, conservation, and restoration of ecosystems. These challenges include development of novel approaches to monitoring, assessment, and restoration of ecosystems; new methods to address species of concern and communities at risk; and innovations in decision analysis and support to address imminent ecosystem changes or those that are underway. Closely integrated with the five goals are four strategic approaches that provide the path forward for the USGS Ecosystems Mission Area. These approaches cross-cut all of the goals and are seen as essential to the implementation of this strategy: Assess information needs for ecosystem science through enhanced partnerships. Work with the DOI and other agencies and institutions to identify, design, and implement priority decision-driven ecological research. Promote the use of interdisciplinary ecosystem science. Design and conduct interdisciplinary process-oriented research in ecosystem science. Enhance modeling and forecasting. Build models to forecast ecosystem change, assess future management scenarios, and reduce uncertainties through an adaptive learning process. Support decisionmaking. Use quantitative approaches to assess the vulnerabilities of ecosystems, habitats, and species, and evaluate strategies for adaptation, restoration, and sustainable management. Following the four strategic approaches are a set of proposed actions that represent a sampling of specific USGS activities that align with this strategy and that address the Nation’s most pressing environmental needs. The strategy emphasizes coordination of activities across the USGS mission areas pursuant to these goals. Ecosystem science is inherently interdisciplinary and requires a broad perspective that incorporates the biological and physical sciences, climate science, information technology, and scientific capacity in mission areas across the Bureau. With its emphasis on coordination, this strategy can provide a critical underpinning for integrated science efforts with scientists from multiple mission areas of the USGS working together. Of course, the USGS will continue to conduct discipline-specific and interdisciplinary investigations, and both will continue to be vital parts of the ecosystem science portfolio. Finally, the strategy stresses the importance of coordination with other Federal agencies and organizations in the natural resources community. The USGS collaborates with resource agencies in the DOI and other organizations throughout the world to meet societal needs for species and ecosystem management. Working with these agencies and organizations, the USGS will play a key role in guiding sound decisionmaking during the next decade by advancing the scientific foundation for sustaining the natural resources that diverse, productive, resilient ecosystems provide.

Circular

Surficial sediment character of the Louisiana offshore continental shelf region: A GIS compilation

The Louisiana coastal zone, comprising the Mississippi River delta plain stretching nearly 400 km from Sabine Pass at the Texas border east to the Chandeleur Islands at the Mississippi border, represents one of North America’s most important coastal ecosystems in terms of natural resources, human infrastructure, and cultural heritage. At the same time, this region has the highest rates of coastal erosion and wetland loss in the Nation due to a complex combination of natural processes and anthropogenic actions over the past century. Comparison of historical maps dating back to 1855 and recent aerial photography show the Louisiana coast undergoing net erosion at highly variable rates. Rates have increased significantly during the past several decades. Earlier published statewide average shoreline erosion rates were >6 m/yr; rates have increased recently to >10 m/yr. The increase is attributable to collective action of storms, rapid subsidence, and pervasive man-made alterations of the rivers and the coast. In response to the dramatic landloss, regional-scale restoration plans are being developed by a partnership of federal and state agencies for the delta plain that have the objectives of maintaining the barrier islands, reducing wetland loss, and enhancing the natural sediment delivery processes. There is growing awareness that the sustainability of coastal Louisiana's natural resources and human infrastructure depends on the successful restoration of natural geologic processes. Critical to the long term success of restoration is scientific understanding of the geologic history and processes of the coastal zone region, including interactions between the rivers, wetlands, coast, and inner shelf. A variety of geophysical studies and mapping of Late Quaternary sedimentary framework and coastal processes by U.S. Geological Survey and other scientists during the past 50 years document that the Louisiana delta plain is the product of a complex history of cyclic delta switching by the Mississippi River and its distributaries over the past ~10,000 years that resulted in laterally overlapping deltaic depocenters. The interactions among riverine, coastal, and inner shelf processes have been superimposed on the Holocene transgression resulting in distinctive landforms and sedimentary sequences. Four Holocene shelf-phase delta complexes have been identified using seismic reflection data and vibracores. Each delta complex is bounded by transgressive surfaces. Following each cycle of deposition and abandonment, the delta lobes undergo regional subsidence and marine reworking that forms transgressive coastal systems and barrier islands. Ultimately, the distal end of each of the abandoned delta lobes is marked by submerged marine sand bodies representing drowned barriers. These sand bodies (e.g. Ship Shoal, Outer Shoal, Trinity Shoal, Tiger Shoal, St. Bernard Shoal) offer the largest volumes and highest quality sand for beach nourishment and shoreline and wetlands restoration. These four large sand shoals on inner continental shelf, representing the reworked remnants of former prograded deltaic headlands that existed on the continental shelf at lower sea level, were generated in the retreat path of the Mississippi River delta plain during the Holocene transgression. Penland and others (1989) have shown these sand bodies represent former shoreline positions associated with lower still stands in sea level. Short periods of rapid relative sea-level rise led to the transgressive submergence of the shorelines which today can be recognized at the -10 m to -20 m isobaths on the Louisiana continental shelf. Trinity Shoal and Ship Shoal represent the -10 m middle-to-late Holocene shoreline trend, whereas Outer Shoal and the St. Bernard Shoals define the -20 m early Holocene shoreline trend (Penland and others, 1989). Collectively, these sand shoals constitute a large volume of high quality sandy sediment potentially suitable for barrier island nourishment and coastal restoration. The USGS has actively supported coastal and wetlands geologic research for the past two decades in partnership with universities (e.g., Louisiana State University, University of New Orleans), state agencies (e.g. Louisiana Geological Survey, Louisiana Department of Natural Resources), and private organizations (Williams and others, 1992a,b; Williams and Cichon, 1993; List and others, 1994). These studies have focused on regional-scale mapping of coastal and wetland change and developing a better understanding of the processes that cause coastal erosion and wetlands loss, particularly the rapid deterioration of Louisiana's barrier islands, estuaries, and wetlands environments. With a better understanding of these processes, the ability to model and predict erosion and wetlands loss will improve. More accurate predictions will, in turn, allow for proper management of coastal resources. Improved predictions will also allow for better assessments of the utility of different restoration alternatives.

Louisiana

Linking ecosystem processes to sustainable wetland management

The sustainability of ecosystems has become an explicitly stated goal of many natural resource agencies. Examples of sustainable ecosystem management, however, are uncommon because management goals often focus on specific deliverables rather than the processes that sustain ecosystems.

National Wetlands Newsletter

The gap between experts, farmers and non-farmers on perceived environmental vulnerability and the influence of values and beliefs

Science has played a mixed role in guiding conservation and sustainability-oriented decision-making by individuals, policymakers, institutions, and governments. Not all science-based conservation and sustainability initiatives that address issues facing humanity and ecosystems and global problems have gained public support. Conservation decisions and policy prescriptions are and may be based on perceptions about and experiences with the environment, local land use, and ecosystems that may not align with or be grounded in science or evidence from experts in the field. Values, beliefs, and perceptions associated with nature play a critical role in how individuals view biodiversity conservation, sustainability, and natural resource management . This study first examines the gap between experts (scientists and other field experts) and the public (farmers and non-farmers) about the state of water and land resources, wildlife and associated habitats, and aquatic biodiversity in the Smoky Hill River Watershed in western Kansas. Second, the study examines the role that values and beliefs play in shaping environmental perceptions for farmers and non-farmers. Analysis confirms that a gap between experts and farmers/non-farmers does exist, especially with respect to the state of the Ogallala Aquifer, playas, rivers and streams, lakes and reservoirs, native grasslands, wildlife habitats, farmland, native fish populations, and wildlife species. Ordered-logistic regression analyses, meanwhile, indicate that farmer and non-farmer perceptions about the state of the local environment are influenced by traditional and self-interested values, as well as environmental values and beliefs, but less so by religiosity and political ideology. Despite broad takeaways, results exhibited heterogeneity across the farmer and non-farmer subpopulations. If environmental professionals cannot align ecological data, stakeholders’ values/perceptions, and policies, then the existing body of technical research and management on sustainability in natural and social sciences may be of little value.

Journal of Environmental Management

Organizing environmental flow frameworks to meet hydropower mitigation needs

The global recognition of the importance of natural flow regimes to sustain the ecological integrity of river systems has led to increased societal pressure on the hydropower industry to change plant operations to improve downstream aquatic ecosystems. However, a complete reinstatement of natural flow regimes is often unrealistic when balancing water needs for ecosystems, energy production, and other human uses. Thus, stakeholders must identify a prioritized subset of flow prescriptions that meet ecological objectives in light of realistic constraints. Yet, isolating aspects of flow regimes to restore downstream of hydropower facilities is among the greatest challenges of environmental flow science due, in part, to the sheer volume of available environmental flow tools in conjunction with complex negotiation-based regulatory procedures. Herein, we propose an organizational framework that structures information and existing flow paradigms into a staged process that assists stakeholders in implementing environmental flows for hydropower facilities. The framework identifies areas where regulations fall short of the needed scientific process, and provide suggestions for stakeholders to ameliorate those situations through advanced preparation. We highlight the strengths of existing flow paradigms in their application to hydropower settings and suggest when and where tools are most applicable. Our suggested framework increases the effectiveness and efficiency of the e-flow implementation process by rapidly establishing a knowledge base and decreasing uncertainty so more time can be devoted to filling knowledge gaps. Lastly, the framework provides the structure for a coordinated research agenda to further the science of environmental flows related to hydropower environments.

Environmental Management

Transdisciplinary research supports the sustainability of barrier island systems threatened by climate change

The management of developed barrier islands is often piece-meal and reactionary despite the complex, dynamic nature of these systems, and sustainable practices will become increasingly difficult due to heightened pressures of climate change. Adaptation actions, including nature-based solutions, need to be thoroughly evaluated prior to implementation to understand system-wide impacts and avoid maladaptation. Anarde et al. (2024a), ( https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef003672 ), Anarde et al. (2024b), ( https://doi.org/10.1029/2023ef004200 ) is the latest important contribution in a growing body of transdisciplinary research that more robustly evaluates the complex physical process-and-response relationship of barrier systems via sophisticated numerical modeling approaches that also interface with socioeconomic models to inform coastal management actions in response to mitigating coastal risk. This new research indicates the importance of coordinated system-scale barrier island management, as strategies to reduce coastal hazard risk in one location will directly affect adjacent communities. Further, this work demonstrates that reducing barrier management interventions may actually promote barrier recovery and sustainability in the face of sea level rise. In addition, recent advances in the analysis and application of remotely sensed data from satellites and oblique aerial photography provide scientists an unprecedented opportunity to track coastal evolution over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales at minimal cost. As sea level rise and changing storm patterns challenge the sustainable management of barrier island systems, integrating these advanced, transdisciplinary tools will enable scientists and coastal practitioners to more thoroughly evaluate coastal adaptation options, efficiently invest limited resources to mitigate coastal hazard risk for communities, support healthy ecosystems, and reduce system-wide impacts.

Earth's Future

Developing an outcome-based biodiversity metric in support of the field to market project: Final report

Our objective was to create a metric that would calculate the relative impact of common commercial agricultural practices on terrestrial vertebrate richness. We sought to define impacts in fields (including field borders) of the southeastern region’s commercial production of corn, wheat, soy, and cotton. The metric is intended to serve as an educational tool, allowing producers to see how operational decisions made at the field level impact overall vertebrate species richness and to explore decision impacts to targeted species groups (e.g. game, pest, or beneficial species). Agricultural landscapes are often mistakenly thought to be unsuitable habitat for most species. However, as demonstrated by results reported here, even large-scale, conventional agricultural producers are potentially important partners in biodiversity conservation. Many vertebrate species do inhabit agricultural landscapes, benefitting from the provision of water, food, or shelter within cultivated fields and their immediate borders (e.g., Holland et al. 2012). In the Southeastern US, of the 613 terrestrial vertebrate species modeled by the Southeast Gap Analysis Program (SEGAP) (http://www.basic.ncsu.edu/segap/index.html), 263 utilize row crop and associated agricultural land cover classes as potential habitat (Box 1). While some species may be sensitive to certain operational practices (e.g., tillage, pest management, or field border management practices), others are generally tolerant, and some may benefit either directly or indirectly. For example, field margins and ditches often serve as semi-natural habitats providing foraging resources and shelter for vertebrates and are shown to positively influence species richness and abundance (Billeter et al. 2007; Herzon & Helenius 2008; Marshall & Moonen 2002; Shore et al. 2005; Weibull et al. 2003; Wuczyńskia et al. 2011). Biodiversity responses are, therefore, complex, as an individual species’ responses to agricultural production practices depends on that animal’s resource specialization, mobility, and life history strategies (Jeanneret et al. 2003a, b; Jennings & Pocock 2009). The knowledge necessary to define the biodiversity contribution of agricultural lands is specialized, dispersed, and nuanced, and thus not readily accessible. Given access to clearly defined biodiversity tradeoffs between alternative agricultural practices, landowners, land managers and farm operators could collectively enhance the conservation and economic value of agricultural landscapes. Therefore, Field to Market: The Keystone Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture and The Nature Conservancy jointly funded a pilot project to develop a biodiversity metric to integrate into Field to Market’s existing sustainability calculator, The Fieldprint Calculator (http://www. fieldtomarket.org/). Field to Market: The Keystone Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture is an alliance among producers, agribusinesses, food companies, and conservation organizations seeking to create sustainable outcomes for agriculture. The Fieldprint Calculator supports the Keystone Alliance’s vision to achieve safe, accessible, and nutritious food, fiber and fuel in thriving ecosystems to meet the needs of 9 billion people in 2050. In support of this same vision, our project provides proof-of-concept for an outcome-based biodiversity metric for Field to Market to quantify biodiversity impacts of commercial row crop production on terrestrial vertebrate richness. Little research exists examining the impacts of alternative commercial agricultural practices on overall terrestrial biodiversity (McLaughlin & Mineau 1995). Instead, most studies compare organic versus conventional practices (e.g. Freemark & Kirk 2001; Wickramasinghe et al. 2004), and most studies focus on flora, avian, or invertebrate communities (Jeanneret et al. 2003a; Maes et al. 2008; Pollard & Relton 1970). Therefore, we used an expert-knowledge-based approach to develop a metric that predicts expected impacts to shelter and forage resources, individual species, and overall biodiversity (species richness). This approach is modeled after an ecosystems services concept (WRI 2005), except that we examine services (i.e., resources) provided to vertebrate wildlife rather than service provided to the human population. SEGAP predicts species that are potentially present in an area given landscape-scale habitat availability, configuration, and context (e.g., patch size, proximity to resources, connectivity, potential for disturbance). Based on the prediction of species that may be potentially present, the impacts of management decisions within fields and around their borders can be analyzed based on the impact of those practices to the availability of species’ resources. The final metric provides an index of a producer’s relative impact, but perhaps even more importantly, the underlying database allows producers to explore details such as which species are most impacted or how alternative decisions would impact their score.

Technical Bulletin

Trout responses to stocking rates and river discharge within a southeast U.S. hydropeaking tailwater

Freshwater fish populations often exist in systems characterized by novel ecological processes resulting from human alteration. Salmonid populations embedded within coldwater sections of warmwater rivers are spatially constrained by habitat availability. Tailwater fish contend with fluctuating river discharges and density-dependent processes associated with fish stocking and exploitation. Salmonid populations sustained through stocking versus natural reproduction may respond differently to changes in hydrologic patterns (e.g., hydropeaking) as well as declines in fish abundance. We assessed differences between stocked (Rainbow Trout Oncorhynchus mykiss ) and naturalized (Brown Trout Salmo trutta ) trout populations in Greers Ferry tailwater, Arkansas, regarding (1) spatial and temporal patterns of mean length, electrofishing catch rates, and relative condition following reduced number of stocked Rainbow Trout and (2) evidence that hydrologic characteristics and fish stocking intensity influenced relative condition. A 56% reduction in Rainbow Trout stocking did not result in systemwide change in mean length or relative abundance for Rainbow Trout or Brown Trout over the 16-year study period. Hydrologic variability, where river discharge spanned both reduced and elevated levels, positively influenced condition of both Rainbow Trout and Brown Trout. Assessment of survival of stocked Rainbow Trout may aid in further refining the timing and amount of stocking needed to sustain the population at a desired abundance. Further, assessing the influence of stocking fewer but perhaps larger (in terms of mean length) fish to meet management goals may be warranted. The persistent differences in relative abundance among river sections can inform management actions directed at Brown Trout, including harvest regulations. Such regulations may aid in reaching desired management goals, including abundance and mean length targets not observed after reduced stocking.

Arkansas

Using landscape metrics to characterize towns along an urban-rural gradient

Context Urban-rural gradients are useful tools when examining the influence of human disturbances on ecological, social and coupled systems, yet the most commonly used gradient definitions are based on single broad measures such as housing density or percent forest cover that fail to capture landscape patterns important for conservation. Objectives We present an approach to defining urban–rural gradients that integrates multiple landscape pattern metrics related to ecosystem processes important for natural resources and wildlife sustainability. Methods We develop a set of land cover composition and configuration metrics and then use them as inputs to a cluster analysis process that, in addition to grouping towns with similar attributes, identifies exemplar towns for each group. We compare the outcome of the cluster-based urban-rural gradient typology to outcomes for four commonly-used rule-based typologies and discuss implications for resource management and conservation. Results The resulting cluster-based typology defines five town types (urban, suburban, exurban, rural, and agricultural) and notably identifies a bifurcation along the gradient distinguishing among rural forested and agricultural towns. Landscape patterns (e.g., core and islet forests) influence where individual towns fall along the gradient. Designations of town type differ substantially among the five different typologies, particularly along the middle of the gradient. Conclusions Understanding where a town occurs along the urban-rural gradient could aid local decision-makers in prioritizing and balancing between development and conservation scenarios. Variations in outcomes among the different urban-rural gradient typologies raise concerns that broad-measure classifications do not adequately account for important landscape patterns. We suggest future urban-rural gradient studies utilize more robust classification approaches.

Connecticut. Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire,

Cross-scale phenological data integration to benefit resource management and monitoring

Climate change is presenting new challenges for natural resource managers charged with maintaining sustainable ecosystems and landscapes. Phenology, a branch of science dealing with seasonal natural phenomena (bird migration or plant flowering in response to weather changes, for example), bridges the gap between the biosphere and the climate system. Phenological processes operate across scales that span orders of magnitude—from leaf to globe and from days to seasons—making phenology ideally suited to multiscale, multiplatform data integration and delivery of information at spatial and temporal scales suitable to inform resource management decisions. A workshop report: Workshop held June 2016 to investigate opportunities and challenges facing multi-scale, multi-platform integration of phenological data to support natural resource management decision-making.

Conference Paper

Individual and colony-specific wintering areas of Pacific northern fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis)

Seabird mortality associated with longline fishing in the eastern Bering Sea occurs mainly from September to May, with northern fulmars (Fulmarus glacialis) comprising the majority (60%) of the bycatch. Along the west coast of North America, winter dieoffs of fulmars may be increasing in frequency and magnitude, the most severe on record being a wreck that peaked in October-November 2003. We deployed satellite transmitters on fulmars from the four main Alaska colonies and tracked individuals for up to 2 years. Fulmars from Hall Island (northern Bering Sea) moved to Russian coastal waters after breeding, while Pribilof Island fulmars (southeastern Bering Sea) remained relatively sedentary yearround. Birds from Chagulak Island (eastern Aleutians) preferred passes between the Aleutian Islands in winter or foraged widely over deep waters of the central Bering Sea and North Pacific. Fulmars from the Semidi Islands (western Gulf of Alaska) migrated directly to waters of the California Current. Individuals from St. George Island (Pribilofs) and Chagulak were consistent in the places that they visited in two successive winters. The Pribilof Islands population is most affected by winter longlining for groundfish, whereas the Semidi Islands colony sustains most of the natural mortality that occurs off Washington, Oregon, and California.

Alaska

Applying ecological criteria to marine reserve design: A case study from the California Channel Islands

Using ecological criteria as a theoretical framework, we describe the steps involved in designing a network of marine reserves for conservation and fisheries management. Although we describe the case study of the Channel Islands, the approach to marine reserve design may be effective in other regions where traditional management alone does not sustain marine resources. A group of agencies, organizations, and individuals established clear goals for marine reserves in the Channel Islands, including conservation of ecosystem biodiversity, sustainable fisheries, economic viability, natural and cultural heritage, and education. Given the constraints of risk management, experimental design, monitoring, and enforcement, scientists recommended at least one, but no more than four, reserves in each biogeographic region. In general, the percentage of an area to be included in a reserve network depends on the goals. In the Channel Islands, after consideration of both conservation goals and the risk from human threats and natural catastrophes, scientists recommended reserving an area of 30–50% of all representative habitats in each biogeographic region. For most species of concern, except pinnipeds and seabirds, information about distributions, dispersal, and population growth was limited. As an alternative to species distribution information, suitable habitats for species of concern were used to locate potential reserve sites. We used a simulated annealing algorithm to identify potential reserve network scenarios that would represent all habitats within the smallest area possible. The analysis produced an array of potential reserve network scenarios that all met the established goals.

California