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EAARL Coastal Topography-Maryland and Delaware, Post-Nor'Ida, 2009

These remotely sensed, geographically referenced elevation measurements of lidar-derived bare-earth (BE) and first-surface (FS) topography datasets were produced by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg, FL. This project provides highly detailed and accurate datasets of a portion of the eastern Maryland and Delaware coastline beachface, acquired post-Nor'Ida (November 2009 nor'easter) on November 28 and 30, 2009. The datasets are made available for use as a management tool to research scientists and natural-resource managers. An innovative airborne lidar instrument originally developed at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, and known as the Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar (EAARL), was used during data acquisition. The EAARL system is a raster-scanning, waveform-resolving, green-wavelength (532-nanometer) lidar designed to map near-shore bathymetry, topography, and vegetation structure simultaneously. The EAARL sensor suite includes the raster-scanning, water-penetrating full-waveform adaptive lidar, a down-looking red-green-blue (RGB) digital camera, a high-resolution multispectral color-infrared (CIR) camera, two precision dual-frequency kinematic carrier-phase GPS receivers, and an integrated miniature digital inertial measurement unit, which provide for sub-meter georeferencing of each laser sample. The nominal EAARL platform is a twin-engine aircraft, but the instrument was deployed on a Pilatus PC-6. A single pilot, a lidar operator, and a data analyst constitute the crew for most survey operations. This sensor has the potential to make significant contributions in measuring sub-aerial and submarine coastal topography within cross-environmental surveys. Elevation measurements were collected over the survey area using the EAARL system, and the resulting data were then processed using the Airborne Lidar Processing System (ALPS), a custom-built processing system developed in a NASA-USGS collaboration. ALPS supports the exploration and processing of lidar data in an interactive or batch mode. Modules for presurvey flight-line definition, flight-path plotting, lidar raster and waveform investigation, and digital camera image playback have been developed. Processing algorithms have been developed to extract the range to the first and last significant return within each waveform. ALPS is used routinely to create maps that represent submerged or sub-aerial topography. Specialized filtering algorithms have been implemented to determine the 'bare earth' under vegetation from a point cloud of last return elevations. For more information about similar projects, please visit the Decision Support for Coastal Science and Management website.

Data Series↗

Changes in ground-water quality in the Canal Creek Aquifer between 1995 and 2000-2001, West Branch Canal Creek area, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland

Since 1917, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland has been the primary chemical-warfare research and development center for the U.S. Army. Ground-water contamination has been documented in the Canal Creek aquifer because of past disposal of chemical and ordnance manufacturing waste. Comprehensive sampling for volatile organic compounds in ground water by the U.S. Geological Survey in the West Branch Canal Creek area was done in June-October 1995 and June-August 2000. The purpose of this report is (1) to compare volatile organic compound concentrations and determine changes in the ground-water contaminant plumes along two cross sections between 1995 and 2000, and (2) to incorporate data from new piezometers sampled in spring 2001 into the plume descriptions. Along the southern cross section, total concentrations of volatile organic compounds in 1995 were determined to be highest in the landfill area east of the wetland (5,200 micrograms per liter), and concentrations were next highest deep in the aquifer near the center of the wetland (3,300 micrograms per liter at 35 feet below land surface). When new piezometers were sampled in 2001, higher carbon tetrachloride and chloroform concentrations (2,000 and 2,900 micrograms per liter) were detected deep in the aquifer 38 feet below land surface, west of the 1995 sampling. A deep area in the aquifer close to the eastern edge of the wetland and a shallow area just east of the creek channel showed declines in total volatile organic compound concentrations of more than 25 percent, whereas between those two areas, concentrations generally showed an increase of greater than 25 percent between 1995 and 2000. Along the northern cross section, total concentrations of volatile organic compounds in ground water in both 1995 and 2000 were determined to be highest (greater than 2,000 micrograms per liter) in piezometers located on the east side of the section, farthest from the creek channel, and concentrations were progressively lower at piezometer locations closer to the creek channel. Total volatile organic compound concentrations increased more than 25 percent in some areas in the middle depths of the aquifer; however, it could not be determined if a defined plume was moving farther downgradient along ground-water flow paths toward the creek channel, or vertically downward because of density differences within the aquifer.

Maryland↗

EAARL Coastal Topography and Imagery-Assateague Island National Seashore, Maryland and Virginia, Post-Nor'Ida, 2009

These remotely sensed, geographically referenced color-infrared (CIR) imagery and elevation measurements of lidar-derived bare-earth (BE) and first-surface (FS) topography datasets were produced collaboratively by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center, St. Petersburg, FL, and the National Park Service (NPS), Northeast Coastal and Barrier Network, Kingston, RI. This project provides highly detailed and accurate datasets of a portion of the Assateague Island National Seashore in Maryland and Virginia, acquired post-Nor'Ida (November 2009 nor'easter) on November 28 and 30, 2009. The datasets are made available for use as a management tool to research scientists and natural-resource managers. An innovative airborne lidar instrument originally developed at the NASA Wallops Flight Facility, and known as the Experimental Advanced Airborne Research Lidar(EAARL), was used during data acquisition. The EAARL system is a raster-scanning, waveform-resolving, green-wavelength (532-nanometer) lidar designed to map near-shore bathymetry, topography, and vegetation structure simultaneously. The EAARL sensor suite includes the raster-scanning, water-penetrating full-waveform adaptive lidar, a down-looking red-green-blue (RGB) digital camera, a high-resolution multispectral color-infrared (CIR) camera, two precision dual-frequency kinematic carrier-phase GPS receivers, and an integrated miniature digital inertial measurement unit, which provide for sub-meter georeferencing of each laser sample. The nominal EAARL platform is a twin-engine aircraft, but the instrument was deployed on a Pilatus PC-6. A single pilot, a lidar operator, and a data analyst constitute the crew for most survey operations. This sensor has the potential to make significant contributions in measuring sub-aerial and submarine coastal topography within cross-environmental surveys. Elevation measurements were collected over the survey area using the EAARL system, and the resulting data were then processed using the Airborne Lidar Processing System (ALPS), a custom-built processing system developed in a NASA-USGS collaboration. ALPS supports the exploration and processing of lidar data in an interactive or batch mode. Modules for presurvey flight-line definition, flight-path plotting, lidar raster and waveform investigation, and digital camera image playback have been developed. Processing algorithms have been developed to extract the range to the first and last significant return within each waveform. ALPS is used routinely to create maps that represent submerged or sub-aerial topography. Specialized filtering algorithms have been implemented to determine the 'bare earth' under vegetation from a point cloud of last return elevations. For more information about similar projects, please visit the Decision Support for Coastal Science and Management website.

Data Series↗

Occurrence and distribution of enteric viruses in shallow ground water and factors affecting well vulnerability to microbiological contamination in Worcester and Wicomico counties, Maryland

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Maryland Department of the Environment and the Wisconsin State Laboratory of Hygiene, conducted a study to characterize the occurrence and distribution of viral contamination in small (withdrawing less than 10,000 gallons per day) public water-supply wells screened in the water-table aquifer in the Coastal Plain in Worcester and Wicomico Counties, Maryland. Two hundred seventy-eight well sites were evaluated with regard to simulated ground-water flow paths, land use, natural soils groups, and well characteristics, such as well depth and well age. Flow and transport simulations of the water-table aquifer indicated that wells screened less than about 50 feet below land surface (shallow wells) were most vulnerable to surface contamination, which in some cases could originate from as far as 2,000 feet upgradient of the well. Animal-feeding and agricultural-storage operations were considered among the most likely sources for viral contamination; therefore, sites close to these activities were considered most vulnerable. Soil groups were evaluated with regard to depth to water and moisture-holding capacity. Wells with shallow depths to water or in very sandy soils were considered more vulnerable to contamination than deep wells (greater than 50 feet) and those completed in finer-grained soils. Older wells and wells where coliform bacteria had been detected in the past were classified as highly vulnerable. On the basis of this evaluation, 27 sites considered to be susceptible were sampled. Samples were collected by pumping up to 400 gallons of untreated well water through an electropositive filter. Water concentrates were subjected to cell-culture assay for the detection of culturable viruses and reverse-transcription polymerase chain reaction/gene probe assays to detect nonculturable viruses; grab samples were analyzed for somatic and male-specific coliphages, Bacteroides fragilis, Clostridium perfringens, enterococci, Escherichia coli, total coliforms, total oxidized nitrogen, dissolved organic carbon, organic nitrogen, total phosphate, orthophosphate, acid-neutralizing capacity, pH, specific conductance, temperature, and dissolved oxygen. Eleven percent of the samples analyzed (3 of 27) tested positive for either culturable viruses or the presence of viral ribonucleic acid. Approximately 15 percent of the samples (4 of 27) tested positive for one or more bacterial contaminants.

Maryland↗

Regional curve development and selection of a reference reach in the non-urban, lowland sections of the Piedmont physiographic province, Pennsylvania and Maryland

Stream-restoration projects utilizing naturalstream designs frequently are based on the bankfull- channel characteristics of a stream reach that is accommodating streamflow and sediment transport without excessive erosion or deposition. The bankfull channel is identified by the use of field indicators and confirmed with tools such as regional curves. Channel dimensions were surveyed at six streamflow-measurement stations operated by the U.S. Geological Survey in the Gettysburg-Newark Lowlands Section and Piedmont Lowlands Section of the Piedmont Physiographic Province in Pennsylvania and Maryland. Regional curves were developed from regression analyses of the relation between drainage area and cross-sectional area, mean depth, width, and streamflow of the bankfull channel. Regional curves were used to confirm the identification of the bankfull channel at a reference reach. Stream dimensions and characteristics of the reference reach were measured for extrapolation into the design of a steam-restoration project on Bermudian Creek in Adams County, Pa. Dimensions for cross-sectional area, mean depth, width, and computed streamflow of the bankfull channel in all surveyed riffle cross sections in the reference reach were within the 95-percent confidence interval bounding the regression line representing bankfull channel geometry in the Lowland Sections of the Piedmont Physiographic Province. The average bankfull cross-sectional area, bankfull mean depth, and computed bankfull discharge for riffle cross sections in the reference reach ranged from 15.4 to 16.5 percent less than estimates determined from the lowland regional curves. Average bankfull channel width was about 2 percent greater than estimates. Cross-sectional area, mean depth, and computed streamflow corresponding to the bankfull stage at the reference reach were 31.4, 44.4, and 9.6 percent less, respectively, than estimates derived from the regional curves developed by Dunne and Leopold in 1978. Average bankfull channel width at the reference reach was 16.7 percent greater than the Dunne and Leopold estimate. The concepts of regional curves and reference reaches can be valuable tools to support efforts in stream restoration. Practitioners of stream restoration need to recognize them as such and realize their limitations. The small number of stations available for analysis is a major limiting factor in the strength of the results of this investigation. Subjective selection criteria may have unnecessarily eliminated streamflow-measurement stations that could have been included in the regional curves. A bankfull discharge with a recurrence interval within the 1- to 2-year range was used as a criteria for confirmation of the bankfull stage at each streamflow-measurement station. Many researchers accept this range for recurrence interval of the bankfull discharge; however, literature provides contradictory evidence. The use of channel-characteristics data from a reference reach without any monitoring data to document the stability of the reference reach over time is a topic of debate.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗

Application of at-site peak-streamflow frequency analyses for very low annual exceedance probabilities

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, has investigated statistical methods for probabilistic flood hazard assessment to provide guidance on very low annual exceedance probability (AEP) estimation of peak-streamflow frequency and the quantification of corresponding uncertainties using streamgage-specific data. The term “very low AEP” implies exceptionally rare events defined as those having AEPs less than about 0.001 (or 1 × 10 –3 in scientific notation or for brevity 10 –3 ). Such low AEPs are of great interest to those involved with peak-streamflow frequency analyses for critical infrastructure, such as nuclear power plants. Flood frequency analyses at streamgages are most commonly based on annual instantaneous peak streamflow data and a probability distribution fit to these data. The fitted distribution provides a means to extrapolate to very low AEPs. Within the United States, the Pearson type III probability distribution, when fit to the base-10 logarithms of streamflow, is widely used, but other distribution choices exist. The USGS-PeakFQ software, implementing the Pearson type III within the Federal agency guidelines of Bulletin 17B (method of moments) and updates to the expected moments algorithm (EMA), was specially adapted for an “Extended Output” user option to provide estimates at selected AEPs from 10 –3 to 10 –6 . Parameter estimation methods, in addition to product moments and EMA, include L-moments, maximum likelihood, and maximum product of spacings (maximum spacing estimation). This study comprehensively investigates multiple distributions and parameter estimation methods for two USGS streamgages (01400500 Raritan River at Manville, New Jersey, and 01638500 Potomac River at Point of Rocks, Maryland). The results of this study specifically involve the four methods for parameter estimation and up to nine probability distributions, including the generalized extreme value, generalized log-normal, generalized Pareto, and Weibull. Uncertainties in streamflow estimates for corresponding AEP are depicted and quantified as two primary forms: quantile (aleatoric [random sampling] uncertainty) and distribution-choice (epistemic [model] uncertainty). Sampling uncertainties of a given distribution are relatively straightforward to compute from analytical or Monte Carlo-based approaches. Distribution-choice uncertainty stems from choices of potentially applicable probability distributions for which divergence among the choices increases as AEP decreases. Conventional goodness-of-fit statistics, such as Cramér-von Mises, and L-moment ratio diagrams are demonstrated in order to hone distribution choice. The results generally show that distribution choice uncertainty is larger than sampling uncertainty for very low AEP values.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Collection, processing, and interpretation of ground-penetrating radar data to determine sediment thickness at selected locations in Deep Creek Lake, Garrett County, Maryland, 2007

The U.S. Geological Survey collected geophysical data in Deep Creek Lake in Garrett County, Maryland, between September 17 through October 4, 2007 to assist the Maryland Department of Natural Resources to better manage resources of the Lake. The objectives of the geophysical surveys were to provide estimates of sediment thickness in shallow areas around the Lake and to test the usefulness of three geophysical methods in this setting. Ground-penetrating radar (GPR), continuous seismic-reflection profiling (CSP), and continuous resistivity profiling (CRP) were attempted. Nearly 90 miles of GPR radar data and over 70 miles of CSP data were collected throughout the study area. During field deployment and testing, CRP was determined not to be practical and was not used on a large scale. Sediment accumulation generally could be observed in the radar profiles in the shallow coves. In some seismic profiles, a thin layer of sediment could be observed at the water bottom. The radar profiles appeared to be better than the seismic profiles for the determination of sediment thickness. Although only selected data profiles were processed, all data were archived for future interpretation. This investigation focused on selected regions of the study area, particularly in the coves where sediment accumulations were presumed to be thickest. GPR was the most useful tool for interpreting sediment thickness, especially in these shallow coves. The radar profiles were interpreted for two surfaces of interest-the water bottom, which was defined as the "2007 horizon," and the interface between Lake sediments and the original Lake bottom, which was defined as the "1925 horizon"-corresponding to the year the Lake was impounded. The ground-penetrating radar data were interpreted on the basis of characteristics of the reflectors. The sediments that had accumulated in the impounded Lake were characterized by laminated, parallel reflections, whereas the subsurface below the original Lake bottom was characterized by more discontinuous and chaotic reflections, often with diffractions indicating cobbles or boulders. The reflectors were picked manually along the water bottom and along the interface between the Lake sediments and the pre-Lake sediments. A simple graphic approach was used to convert traveltimes to depth through water and depth through saturated sediments using velocities of the soundwaves through the water and the saturated sediments. Nineteen cross sections were processed and interpreted in 9 coves around Deep Creek Lake, and the difference between the 2007 horizon and the 1925 horizon was examined. In most areas, GPR data indicate a layer of sediment between 1 and 7 feet thick. When multiple cross sections from a single cove were compared, the cross sections indicated that sediment thickness decreased toward the center of the Lake.

Maryland↗

Water quality in the upper Anacostia River, Maryland: Continuous and discrete monitoring with simulations to estimate concentrations and yields, 2003-05

From 2003 through 2005, continuous and discrete waterquality data were collected at two stations on the Anacostia River in Maryland: Northeast Branch at Riverdale, Maryland (U.S. Geological Survey Station 01649500) and Northwest Branch near Hyattsville, Maryland (Station 01651000). Both stations are above the heads of tide for the river, and measurements approximately represent contributions of chemicals from the nontidal watersheds in the Anacostia River. This study was a cooperative effort between the U.S. Geological Survey, the Prince George’s County Department of Environmental Resources, the Maryland Department of the Environment, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and George Mason University. Samples were collected for suspended sediment, nutrients, and trace metals; data were used to calculate loads of selected chemical parameters, and to evaluate the sources and transport processes of contaminants. Enrichment factors were calculated for some trace metals and used to interpret patterns of occurrence over different flow regimes. Some metals, such as cadmium, lead, and zinc, were slightly enriched as compared to global averages for shales; overall, median values of enrichment factors for all metals were approximately 15 to 35. Stepwise linear regression models were developed on log-transformed concentrations to estimate the concentrations of suspended sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus from continuous data of discharge and turbidity. The use of multiple explanatory variables improved the predictions over traditional rating curves that use only streamflow as the explanatory variable, because other variables such as turbidity measure the hysteretic effects of fine-grained suspended sediment over storm hydrographs. Estimates of the concentrations of suspended sediment from continuous discharge and turbidity showed coefficients of determination for the predictions (multiple R2) of 0.95 and biases of less than 4 percent. Models to estimate the concentrations of total phosphorus and total nitrogen had lower values of multiple R2 than suspended sediment, but the estimated bias for all the models was similar. The models for total nitrogen and total phosphorus tended to under-predict high concentrations and to over-predict low concentrations as compared to measured values. Annual yields (loads per square area in kilograms per year per square kilometer) were estimated for suspended sediment, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus using the U.S. Geological Survey models ESTIMATOR and LOADEST. The model LOADEST used hourly time steps and allowed the use of turbidity, which is strongly correlated to concentrations of suspended sediment, as a predictor variable. Annual yields for total nitrogen and total phosphorus were slightly higher but similar to previous estimates for other watersheds of the Chesapeake Bay, but annual yields for suspended sediment were higher by an order of magnitude for the two Anacostia River stations. Annual yields of suspended sediment at the two Anacostia River stations ranged from 131,000 to 248,000 kilograms per year per square kilometer for 2004 and 2005. LOADEST estimates were similar to those determined with ESTIMATOR, but had reduced errors associated with the estimates.

Maryland↗

Ground-water quality in unmined areas and near reclaimed surface coal mines in the northern and central Appalachian coal regions, Pennsylvania and West Virginia

Findings are presented from investigations during 1996-1998 by the U.S. Geological Survey National Water-Quality Assessment Program. Ground-water quality in 58 wells downgradient of reclaimed surface coal mines is compared to ground-water quality from 25 wells in unmined areas (background concentrations) in the bituminous coal fields of the northern Appalachian coal region (high-sulfur coal region) in Pennsylvania, Maryland, and West Virginia and the central Appalachian coal region (low-sulfur coal region) in West Virginia. Ground water in the mined high-sulfur coal region has significantly greater median concentrations of sulfate, hardness, calcium, and specific conductance compared to the unmined high-sulfur coal region and to both mined and unmined areas in the low-sulfur coal region. Ground water in mined areas had median values of mine-drainage constituents (sulfate, iron, manganese, aluminum, hardness, calcium, magnesium, turbidity, and specific conductance) that were significantly greater than medians for wells in unmined areas. Mine-drainage constituents include cations such as calcium and magnesium that become elevated compared to levels in unmined areas because of exposure of acidic mine drainage to calcareous materials. The transport of pyrite-oxidation products from the mined site and subsequent neutralization reactions by calcareous materials at the mine site or along the flow path are likely processes that result in greater concentrations of mine-drainage constituents in mined areas compared to unmined areas. Mine-drainage constituents generally exceeded unmined-area background concentrations within about 500 feet of mined sites but were at or below background levels in wells more than 1,000 feet downgradient of mined sites. Concentrations of sulfate, hardness, and total dissolved solids were greatest at well depths of 50 to 150 feet but generally were less than background concentrations in wells deeper than 150 feet. Concentrations of iron, manganese, and aluminum exceeded background concentrations in many wells less than 150 feet deep. In mined areas, median ground-water ages are nearly as old in hill locations as in valley locations. Older ground-water age correlates with increased distance from mined areas. The lack of significant correlation among mine-drainage-constituent concentrations, ground-water age, distance from mined areas, and topographic locations may be the result of factors such as (1) mixing of ground-water ages in wells open to fractures with variable depths, lengths, and interconnections; (2) disturbance of rock from blasting; and (3) variations in slope and terrain relief in the study area.

Pennsylvania, West Virginia↗

Simulation of groundwater flow in the aquifer system of the Anacostia River and surrounding watersheds, Washington, D.C., Maryland, and Virginia

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the District Department of Energy & Environment, Water Quality Division, is investigating the hydrogeology of the tidal Anacostia River watershed within Washington, D.C., with the goal of improving understanding of the groundwater-flow system and the interaction of groundwater and surface water in the watershed. To help meet this goal, a three-dimensional steady-state groundwater-flow model for the Anacostia River and surrounding watersheds in Washington, D.C., Maryland, and Virginia was constructed. The goal of the modeling study was to quantify the rate and pattern of groundwater flow to the tidal Anacostia River. The model domain includes weathered and unweathered rocks of the Piedmont Physiographic Province and the southeast-dipping sediments of the Atlantic Coastal Plain Physiographic Province. The model includes processes of recharge, evapotranspiration, withdrawals from wells, and base flow to streams, rivers, and tidal waters. Final model calibration was achieved by using the objective parameter estimation and sensitivity analysis capabilities of UCODE_2005. Simulated gradients in the surficial aquifer in the vicinity of the tidal Anacostia River indicate that flow is predominantly toward the river, with changes in the magnitude and direction of the gradients from the northeast, where the Anacostia River enters Washington, D.C., to the southwest, toward the confluence with the tidal Potomac River. Flow paths to the tidal Anacostia River from the north are largely horizontal through the surficial aquifer and Patuxent aquifer. From the south, the flow paths toward the river originate in the elevated topographic areas southeast of the river and pass through the surficial aquifer and Patapsco confining unit, lower Patapsco aquifer/Arundel Clay, and to some extent, the Patuxent aquifer. Groundwater-flow rates to and from the tidal rivers (Potomac and Anacostia) are generally greatest near the land-water boundary, where the gradient in the water table is greatest, and diminish toward the middle of the tidal river channels. The tidal rivers are predominantly areas of groundwater discharge, although there are areas where tidal waters are recharging the subsurface, typically where small variations or depressions in the topography produce small locally reversed gradients in the water table. Substantial recharge of tidal waters to the groundwater system is observed for the tidal Potomac where the upper Patapsco aquifer subcrops south of Washington, D.C. Water budget calculations indicate that inflows to the groundwater system beneath the tidal Anacostia River are predominantly from the land area of Washington, D.C., followed by tidal surface water and flows from lower layers. Outflows are largely to the tidal Anacostia River, with a smaller part going to the land area underlying Washington, D.C.

Delaware, Maryland, Washington D.C.↗

Geology, Hydrology, and Water Quality of the Little Blackwater River Watershed, Dorchester County, Maryland, 2006-09

The Little Blackwater River watershed is a low-lying tidal watershed in Dorchester County, Maryland. The potential exists for increased residential development in a mostly agricultural watershed that drains into the Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge. Groundwater and surface-water levels were collected along with water-quality samples to document hydrologic and geochemical conditions within the watershed prior to potential land-use changes. Lithologic logs were collected in the Little Blackwater River watershed and interpreted with existing geophysical logs to conceptualize the shallow groundwater-flow system. A shallow water table exists in much of the watershed as shown by sediment cores and surface geophysical surveys. Water-table wells have seasonal variations of 6 feet, with the lowest water levels occurring in September and October. Seasonally low water-table levels are lower than the stage of the Little Blackwater River, creating the potential for surface-water infiltration into the water table. Two stream gages, each equipped with stage, velocity, specific conductance, and temperature sensors, were installed at the approximate mid-point of the watershed and near the mouth of the Little Blackwater River. The gages recorded data continuously and also were equipped with telemetry. Discharge calculated at the mouth of the Little Blackwater River showed a seasonal pattern, with net positive discharge in the winter and spring months and net negative discharge (flow into the watershed from Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge and Fishing Bay) in the summer and fall months. Continuous water-quality records showed an increase in specific conductance during the summer and fall months. Discrete water-quality samples were collected during 2007--08 from 13 of 15 monitoring wells and during 2006--09 from 9 surface-water sites to characterize pre-development conditions and the seasonal variability of inorganic constituents and nutrients. The highest mean values of nitrogen are found in the deep groundwater system, with relatively low values in the water table. Surface-water-quality samples in the lower half of the basin show a significant increase in inorganic seawater constituents, especially in summer, corresponding with net negative discharge from the Little Blackwater River. Samples also were collected from nine wells and four surface-water sites for pesticides in June 2008. The herbicides atrazine, metolachlor, and simazine, and the insecticide fipronil were detected at each of the four surface-water sites, with concentrations less than 2 micrograms per liter. Concentrations of pesticides found in groundwater were typically one to two orders of magnitude lower than pesticide concentrations found in surface water of the Little Blackwater River. Seasonal hydraulic-gradient reversals between the shallow groundwater system and the Little Blackwater River, coincident with the inflow of brackish water from Fishing Bay and Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge, indicate a potential for saltwater intrusion into the water table. The likelihood of saltwater intrusion into the water table is further supported by high chloride concentrations observed in water-table wells near the Little Blackwater River.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Hydraulic Geometry Characteristics of Continuous-Record Streamflow-Gaging Stations on Four Urban Watersheds Along the Main Stem of Gwynns Falls, Baltimore County and Baltimore City, Maryland

Four continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations are currently being operated by the U.S. Geological Survey on the main stem of Gwynns Falls in western Baltimore County and Baltimore City, Maryland. The four streamflow-gaging stations drain urban or suburban watersheds with significantly different drainage areas. In addition to providing continuous- record discharge data at these four locations, operation of these stations also provides a long-term record of channel geometry variables such as cross-sectional area, channel width, mean channel depth, and mean velocity that are obtained from physical measurement of the discharge at a variety of flow conditions. Hydraulic geometry analyses were performed using discharge-measurement data from four continuous-record streamflow-gaging stations on the main stem of Gwynns Falls. Simple linear regression was used to develop relations that (1) quantify changes in cross-sectional area, channel width, mean channel depth, and mean velocity with changes in discharge at each station, and (2) quantify changes in these variables in the Gwynns Falls watershed with changes in drainage area and annual mean discharge. Results of the hydraulic geometry analyses indicated that mean velocity is more responsive to changes in discharge than channel width and mean channel depth for all four streamflow-gaging stations on the main stem of Gwynns Falls. For the two largest and most developed watersheds, on Gwynns Falls at Villa Nova, and Gwynns Falls at Washington Boulevard at Baltimore, the slope of the regression lines, or hydraulic exponents, indicated that mean velocity was more responsive to changes in discharge than any of the other hydraulic variables that were analyzed. This was true even when considering changes in cross-sectional area with discharge, which incorporates the combined effects of channel width and mean channel depth. A comparison of hydraulic exponents for Gwynns Falls to average values from previous work indicated that the velocity exponents for all four stations on the Gwynns Falls are larger than the average value of 0.34. For stations 01589300 and 01589352, the exponents for mean velocity are about twice as large as the average value. Analyses of cross-sectional area, channel width, mean channel depth, and mean velocity in conjunction with changes in drainage area and annual mean discharge indicated that channel width is much more responsive to changes in drainage area and annual mean discharge than are mean channel depth or mean velocity. Cross-sectional area, which combines the effects of channel width and mean channel depth, was also found to be highly responsive to changes in drainage area and annual mean discharge.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Hydrogeologic characterization of Area B, Fort Detrick, Maryland

Groundwater in the karst groundwater system at Area B of Fort Detrick in Frederick County, Maryland, is contaminated with chlorinated solvents from the past disposal of laboratory wastes. In cooperation with U.S. Army Environmental Command and U.S. Army Garrison Fort Detrick, the U.S. Geological Survey performed a 3-year study to refine the conceptual model of groundwater flow in and around Area B of Fort Detrick at the site- to regional-scale. The investigation was designed to review the geologic setting, assess the temporal variability of the hydrologic system, evaluate the potential for interbasin groundwater flow, determine the degree of vertical connectivity of the aquifer, characterize the sources and timing of groundwater recharge, and identify if dyes from previous tracer tests continue to drain from the aquifer. This study established a continuous hydrologic monitoring network of 12 water level gages, 2 streamgages, a precipitation gage, and in situ fluorometric monitoring. A water budget analysis was performed using hydrologic monitoring data and a soil-water balance model constructed for the study. In this study each individual water budget term is calculated using available data or through modeling, and a water budget residual term is calculated. If the water budget residual term is small relative to the uncertainty of the underlying data, then an additional import or export of water (in other words, interbasin transfer) is not needed to fully describe the hydrologic system. Groundwater and spring samples from 20 locations were collected in a 2019 synoptic geochemical sampling event and analyzed for a suite of analytes that included groundwater age tracer constituents. The karst groundwater system was found to be highly responsive to hydrologic events, with strong water level and stream base flow responses to individual storm events and a historic wet period in 2017 and 2018. The water budget analysis included historic flooding in May 2018, though more typical hydrologic patterns were observed in 2019 and 2020. During most evaluated intervals, the water budget residual was less than the estimated uncertainty on the residual for the two Carroll Creek watersheds, which suggested no substantial net interbasin flow occurs from these watersheds. The watershed difference area, a region that includes Area B, had a significant negative water budget residual, which may be the result of a net interbasin import of groundwater or the result of focused groundwater recharge not simulated by the soil-water balance model. Geochemical analysis and groundwater age dating reveals shallow groundwater (approximately less than [<] 150 feet deep) appears to be relatively young (approximately <30 years) and to be recharged in the vicinity of Area B. In the deep groundwater sampled in this study (approximately greater than [>] 150 feet deep), older groundwater from a differing recharge source, based on stable isotopes and noble gas analyses, is observed and interpreted to represent less direct connectivity to the surface and increased proportions of water recharged to the north and (or) west of Area B. A clustering analysis to reveal groupings within the suite of geochemical data was used to define seven groups. The groupings generally show that wells in similar depths and lateral aquifer positions generally cluster together, with some exceptions. Although limited by suspended sediments, the in situ fluorometric monitoring at springs did not detect any dye leaving the system above the limit of detection for the method. Dye was only detected above the limit of detection in one well, which was used as an injection well during a previous dye tracer test. The results of this study support and refine the conceptual site model of groundwater hydrology at Area B. The geologic and geophysical log review in this study agrees with prior assessments of physical controls on groundwater flow. A literature review of mid-Atlantic karst studies identified similar controls reported in these environments. The additional characterization of hydrologic responsiveness in this study suggests that hydrologic conditions and events are important considerations when interpreting potentiometric surfaces and contaminant trends over time and highlights the importance of continuous hydrologic monitoring. There is evidence to suggest that either intense focused groundwater recharge occurs in the vicinity of Area B or net along-valley groundwater interbasin flow from the upper study watershed enters the lower watershed and discharges to Carroll Creek. Geochemical analyses also suggest that water recharged from Catoctin Mountain and the elevated areas to the north and (or) west of the site may be present in the older and deeper Area B groundwater.

Maryland↗

A Science Plan for a Comprehensive Regional Assessment of the Atlantic Coastal Plain Aquifer System in Maryland

The Maryland Coastal Plain region is, at present, largely dependent upon ground water for its water supply. Decades of increasing pumpage have caused ground-water levels in parts of the Maryland Coastal Plain to decline by as much as 2 feet per year in some areas of southern Maryland. Continued declines at this rate could affect the long-term sustainability of ground-water resources in Maryland's heavily populated Coastal Plain communities and the agricultural industry of the Eastern Shore. In response to a recommendation in 2004 by the Advisory Committee on the Management and Protection of the State's Water Resources, the Maryland Geological Survey and the U.S. Geological Survey have developed a science plan for a comprehensive assessment that will provide new scientific information and new data management and analysis tools for the State to use in allocating ground water in the Coastal Plain. The comprehensive assessment has five goals aimed at improving the current information and tools used to understand the resource potential of the aquifer system: (1) document the geologic and hydrologic characteristics of the aquifer system in the Maryland Coastal Plain and appropriate areas of adjacent states; (2) conduct detailed studies of the regional ground-water-flow system and water budget for the aquifer system; (3) improve documentation of patterns of water quality in all Coastal Plain aquifers, including the distribution of saltwater; (4) enhance ground-water-level, streamflow, and water-quality-monitoring networks in the Maryland Coastal Plain; and (5) develop science-based tools to facilitate sound management of the ground-water resources in the Maryland Coastal Plain. The assessment, as designed, will be conducted in three phases and if fully implemented, is expected to take 7 to 8 years to complete. Phase I, which was initiated in January 2006, is an effort to assemble all the information and investigation tools needed to do a more comprehensive assessment of the aquifer system. The work will include updating the hydrogeologic framework, developing a Geographic Information System-based aquifer information system, refinement of water-use information, assessment of existing water-quality data, and development of detailed plans for ground-water-flow and management models. Phase II is an intensive study phase during which a regional ground-water-flow model will be developed and calibrated for the entire region of Maryland in the Atlantic Coastal Plain as well as appropriate areas of Delaware and Virginia. The model will be used to simulate flow and water levels in the aquifer system and to study the water budget of the system. The model analysis will be based on published information but will be supplemented with field investigations of recharge and leakage in the aquifer system. Localized and finely discretized ground-water-flow models that are embedded in the regional model will be developed for selected areas of heavy withdrawals. Other modeling studies will be conducted to better understand flow in the unconfined parts of the aquifer system and to support the recharge studies. Phase II will also include selected water-quality studies and a study to determine how hydrologic and water-quality-monitoring networks need to be enhanced to appropriately assess the sustainability of the Coastal Plain aquifer system. Phase III will be largely devoted to the development and application of a ground-water optimization model. This model will be linked to the ground-water-flow model to create a model package that can be used to test different water-management scenarios. The management criteria that will be used to develop these scenarios will be determined in consultation with a variety of state and local stakeholders and policy makers in Phases I and II of the assessment. The development of the aquifer information system is a key component of the assessment. The system will store all relevant aquifer data

Open-File Report↗

Well network installation and hydrogeologic data collection, Assateague Island National Seashore, Worcester County, Maryland, 2010

The U.S. Geological Survey, as part of its Climate and Land Use Change Research and Development Program, is conducting a multi-year investigation to assess potential impacts on the natural resources of Assateague Island National Seashore, Maryland that may result from changes in the hydrologic system in response to projected sea-level rise. As part of this effort, 26 monitoring wells were installed in pairs along five east-west trending transects. Each of the five transects has between two and four pairs of wells, consisting of a shallow well and a deeper well. The shallow well typically was installed several feet below the water table&mdash;usually in freshwater about 10 feet below land surface (ft bls)&mdash;to measure water-level changes in the shallow groundwater system. The deeper well was installed below the anticipated depth to the freshwater-saltwater interface&mdash;usually in saltwater about 45 to 55 ft bls&mdash;for the purpose of borehole geophysical logging to characterize local differences in lithology and salinity and to monitor tidal influences on groundwater. Four of the 13 shallow wells and 5 of the 13 deeper wells were instrumented with water-level recorders that collected water-level data at 15-minute intervals from August 12 through September 28, 2010. Data collected from these instrumented wells were compared with tide data collected north of Assateague Island at the Ocean City Inlet tide gage, and precipitation data collected by National Park Service staff on Assateague Island. These data indicate that precipitation events coupled with changes in ambient sea level had the largest effect on groundwater levels in all monitoring wells near the Atlantic Ocean and Chincoteague and Sinepuxent Bays, whereas precipitation events alone had the greatest impact on shallow groundwater levels near the center of the island. Daily and bi-monthly tidal cycles appeared to have minimal influence on groundwater levels throughout the island and the water-level changes that were observed appeared to vary among well sites, indicating that changes in lithology and salinity also may affect the response of water levels in the shallow and deeper groundwater systems throughout the island. Borehole geophysical logs were collected at each of the 13 deeper wells along the 5 transects. Electromagnetic induction logs were collected to identify changes in lithology; determine the approximate location of the freshwater-saltwater interface; and characterize the distribution of fresh and brackish water in the shallow aquifer, and the geometry of the fresh groundwater lens beneath the island. Natural gamma logs were collected to provide information on the geologic framework of the island including the presence and thickness of finer-grained deposits found in the subsurface throughout the island during previous investigations. Results of this investigation show the need for collection of continuous water-level data in both the shallow and deeper parts of the flow system and electromagnetic induction and natural gamma geophysical logging data to better understand the response of this groundwater system to changes in precipitation and tidal forcing. Hydrologic data collected as part of this investigation will serve as the foundation for the development of numerical flow models to assess the potential effects of climate change on the coastal groundwater system of Assateague Island.

Maryl↗

Sediment distribution and hydrologic conditions of the Potomac aquifer in Virginia and parts of Maryland and North Carolina

Sediments of the heavily used Potomac aquifer broadly contrast across major structural features of the Atlantic Coastal Plain Physiographic Province in eastern Virginia and adjacent parts of Maryland and North Carolina. Thicknesses and relative dominance of the highly interbedded fluvial sediments vary regionally. Vertical intervals in boreholes of coarse-grained sediment commonly targeted for completion of water-supply wells are thickest and most widespread across the central and southern parts of the Virginia Coastal Plain. Designated as the Norfolk arch depositional subarea, the entire sediment thickness here functions hydraulically as a single interconnected aquifer. By contrast, coarse-grained sediment intervals are thinner and less widespread across the northern part of the Virginia Coastal Plain and into southern Maryland, designated as the Salisbury embayment depositional subarea. Fine-grained intervals that are generally avoided for completion of water-supply wells are increasingly thick and widespread northward. Fine-grained intervals collectively as thick as several hundred feet comprise two continuous confining units that hydraulically separate three vertically spaced subaquifers. The subaquifers are continuous northward but merge southward into the single undivided Potomac aquifer. Lastly, far southeastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina are designated as the Albemarle embayment depositional subarea, where both coarse- and fine-grained intervals are of only moderate thickness. The entire sediment thickness functions hydraulically as a single interconnected aquifer. A substantial hydrologic separation from overlying aquifers is imposed by the upper Cenomanian confining unit. Potomac aquifer sediments were deposited by a fluvial depositional complex spanning the Virginia Coastal Plain approximately 100 to 145 million years ago. Westward, persistently uplifted granite and gneiss source rocks sustained a supply of coarse-grained sand and gravel. Immature, high-gradient braided streams deposited longitudinal bars and channel fills across the Norfolk arch subarea. By contrast, across the Salisbury and Albemarle embayment subareas, mature, medium- to low-gradient meandering streams deposited medium- to coarse-grained channel fills and point bars segregated from fine-grained overbank deposits. The Virginia depositional complex merged northward across the Salisbury embayment subarea with another complex in Maryland. Here, additional sediments were received from schist source rocks that underwent three cycles of initial uplift and rapid erosion followed by crustal stability and erosional leveling. Because of the predominance of coarse-grained sediments, transmissivity, hydraulic conductivity, and regional velocities of lateral flow through the Potomac aquifer are greatest across the Norfolk arch depositional subarea, but decrease progressively northward with increasingly fine-grained sediments. Confining units hydraulically separate the Potomac aquifer from overlying aquifers, as indicated by large vertical hydraulic gradients. By contrast, most of the Potomac aquifer internally functions hydraulically as a single interconnected aquifer, as indicated by uniformly small vertical gradients. Most fine-grained sediments within the aquifer do not hydraulically separate overlying and underlying coarse-grained sediments. Across the Salisbury embayment depositional subarea, however, hydraulic separation among the vertically spaced subaquifers is imposed by the intervening confining units. The Potomac aquifer is the largest and most heavily used source of groundwater in the Virginia Coastal Plain. Water-level declines as great as 200 feet create the potential for saltwater intrusion. Conventional stratigraphic correlation has been generally ineffective at accurately characterizing complexly distributed fluvial sediments that compose the Potomac aquifer. Consequently, the aquifer’s internal hydraulic connectivity and overall hydrologic function have not been well understood. Water-supply planning and development efforts have been hampered, and interpretations of regulatory criteria for allowable water-level declines have been ambiguous. An investigation undertaken during 2010–11 by the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Virginia Department of Environmental Quality, provides a comprehensive regional description of the spatial distribution of Potomac aquifer sediments and their relation to hydrologic conditions. Altitudes and thicknesses of 2,725 vertical sediment intervals represent the spatial distribution of Potomac aquifer sediments in the Virginia Coastal Plain and adjacent parts of Maryland and North Carolina. Sediment intervals are designated as either dominantly coarse or fine grained and were determined by interpretation of geophysical logs and ancillary information from 456 boreholes. Sediment-interval and borehole summary statistical data indicate regional trends in sediment lithology and stratigraphic continuity, upon which three structurally based and hydrologically distinct sediment depositional subareas are designated. Broad patterns of sediment deposition over time are inferred from published sediment pollen-age data. Discrepancies in previously drawn hydrostratigraphic relations between southeastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina are partly resolved based on borehole geophysical logs and a recently documented geologic map and corehole. A conceptual model theorizes the depositional history of the sediments and geologically accounts for their distribution. Documented pumping tests of the Potomac aquifer at 197 locations produced 336 values of transmissivity and 127 values of storativity. Based on effective aquifer thicknesses, 296 values of sediment hydraulic conductivity and 113 values of sediment specific storage are calculated. Vertical hydraulic gradients are calculated from 9,479 pairs of water levels measured between November 17, 1953, and October 4, 2011, in 129 closely spaced pairs of wells. Borehole sediment-interval and related data provide a means to achieve high yielding production wells in the Potomac aquifer by site-specific targeting of drilling operations toward water-bearing coarse-grained sand and gravel. Advance knowledge of the potential of different parts of the aquifer also aids in planning optimal groundwater-development areas. Depositional subareas further provide a possible context for resource management. Current (2013) regulatory limits on water-level declines are relative to top surfaces of subdivided upper, middle, and lower Potomac aquifers across the entire Virginia Coastal Plain, but have the potential to exceed the same limit relative to a single undivided Potomac aquifer. By contrast, designation of the sediments as a single aquifer in the Norfolk arch and Albemarle embayment subareas—and as a series of vertically spaced subaquifers and intervening confining units in the Salisbury embayment subarea—best reflects understanding of the Potomac aquifer and can avoid the potential for excessive water-level declines. Simulation modeling to evaluate effects of groundwater withdrawals could be designed similarly, including vertical discretization and (or) zonation of the Potomac aquifer based on depositional subareas and a geostatistical distribution of aquifer properties derived from borehole sediment-interval data. Further resource-management information needs extend beyond the developed part of the Potomac aquifer, particularly across the Northern Neck and Middle Peninsula where only the shallowest part of the aquifer is known, and include structural aspects such as faults, basement bedrock, and the Chesapeake Bay impact crater.

Maryland, North Carolina, Virginia↗

Design and Performance of an Enhanced Bioremediation Pilot Test in a Tidal Wetland Seep, West Branch Canal Creek, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland

Because of a lack of available in situ remediation methods for sensitive wetland environments where contaminated groundwater discharges, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Garrison, Aberdeen Proving Ground, Maryland, conceived, designed, and pilot tested a permeable reactive mat that can be placed horizontally at the groundwater/surface-water interface. Development of the reactive mat was part of an enhanced bioremediation study in a tidal wetland area along West Branch Canal Creek at Aberdeen Proving Ground, where localized areas of preferential discharge (seeps) transport groundwater contaminated with carbon tetrachloride, chloroform, tetrachloroethene, trichloroethene, and 1,1,2,2-tetrachloroethane from the Canal Creek aquifer to land surface. The reactive mat consisted of a mixture of commercially available organic- and nutrient-rich peat and compost that was bioaugmented with a dechlorinating microbial consortium, WBC-2, developed for this study. Due to elevated chlorinated methane concentrations in the pilot test site, a layer of zero-valent iron mixed with the peat and compost was added at the base of the reactive mat to promote simultaneous abiotic and biotic degradation. The reactive mat for the pilot test area was designed to optimize chlorinated volatile organic compound degradation efficiency without altering the geotechnical and hydraulic characteristics, or creating undesirable water quality in the surrounding wetland area, which is referred to in this report as achieving geotechnical, hydraulic, and water-quality compatibility. Optimization of degradation efficiency was achieved through the selection of a sustainable organic reactive matrix, electron donor, and bioaugmentation method. Consideration of geotechnical compatibility through design calculations of bearing capacity, settlement, and geotextile selection showed that a 2- to 3-feet tolerable thickness of the mat was possible, with 0.17 feet settlement predicted for unconsolidated sediments between 1.5 and 6 years following installation of the reactive mat. To ensure hydraulic compatibility in the mat design, mat materials that had a hydraulic conductivity greater than the surrounding wetland sediments were selected, and the mixture was optimized to consist of 1.5 parts compost, 1.5 parts peat and 1 part sand as a safeguard against fluidization. Sediment and matrix properties also indicated that a nonwoven geotextile with a cross-plane flow greater than that of the native sediments was suitable as the base of the reactive mat. Another nonwoven geotextile was selected for installation between the iron mix and organic zones of the mat to create more laminar flow conditions within the mat. Total metals and sequential extraction procedure analyses of mat materials, which were conducted to evaluate water-quality compatibility of the mat materials, showed that concentrations of metals in the compost ranged from one-half to one order of magnitude below consensus-based probable effect concentrations in sediment. A 22-inch-thick reactive mat, containing 0.5 percent WBC-2 by volume, was constructed at seep area 3-4W and monitored from October 2004 through October 2005 for the pilot test. No local, immediate failure of the mat or of wetland sediments was observed during mat installation, indicating that design estimates of bearing capacity and geotextile textile selection ensured the integrity of the mat and wetland sediments during and following installation. Measurements of surface elevation of the mat showed an average settlement of the mat surface of approximately 0.25 feet after 10 months, which was near the predicted settlement for unconsolidated sediment. Monitoring showed rapid establishment and sustainment throughout the year of methanogenic conditions conducive to anaerobic biodegradation and efficient dechlorination activity by WBC-2. The median mass removal of chloromethanes and total chloroethenes and ethane during the

Scientific Investigations Report↗

Simulated effects of sea-level rise on the shallow, fresh groundwater system of Assateague Island, Maryland and Virginia

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, developed a three-dimensional groundwater-flow model for Assateague Island in eastern Maryland and Virginia to assess the effects of sea-level rise on the groundwater system. Sea-level rise is expected to increase the altitude of the water table in barrier island aquifer systems, possibly leading to adverse effects to ecosystems on the barrier islands. The potential effects of sea-level rise were evaluated by simulating groundwater conditions under sea-level-rise scenarios of 20 centimeters (cm), 40 cm, and 60 cm. Results show that as sea level rises, low-lying areas of the island originally represented as receiving freshwater recharge in the baseline scenario are inundated by saltwater. This change from freshwater recharge to saltwater decreases the overall amount of freshwater recharging the system. As the water table rises in response to the higher sea levels, freshwater flow out of the system changes, with more freshwater leaving as submarine groundwater discharge and less freshwater leaving as seeps and evapotranspiration. At the current land-surface altitude, as much as 50 percent of the island may be inundated with a 60-cm rise in sea level, and the low-lying marshes may change from freshwater to saltwater. Groundwater levels at 32 wells were monitored for as long as 12 months between October 2014 and September 2015 on Assateague Island. Results from objective classification analysis of 14 shallow monitoring wells show two dominant processes affecting groundwater levels in two different settings on the island. On the western side of the island, between the primary dune and the inland bays, water levels clearly respond to precipitation events. This side of the island is more protected from ocean tides and typically is more vegetated than the eastern side. On the eastern side of the island, between the Atlantic Ocean and the primary dune, water levels clearly respond to tidal events. Specific conductance was measured at four wells, two on the western part of the island and two on the eastern part of the island. Specific conductance values in the two wells west of the primary dune show episodic decreases, coinciding with precipitation events. Specific conductance values in the two wells on the eastern side of the primary dune show episodic increases, coinciding with high-tide events. These high frequency monitoring data are intended to aid in designing a monitoring network that can document both short-term and long-term hydrologic processes on Assateague Island National Seashore. This study uses a modeling approach consistent with models developed for Gateway National Recreation Area, Sandy Hook Unit (New Jersey) and Fire Island National Seashore (New York). Combined, these models are meant to improve the regional capabilities for predicting climate-change effects on barrier islands and provide resource managers with a common set of tools for adaptation and mitigation of potentially adverse effects of sea-level rise.

Maryland, Virginia↗