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USGS2012

Climatic forcing of Quaternary deep-sea benthic communities in the North Pacific Ocean

There is growing evidence that changes in deep-sea benthic ecosystems are modulated by climate changes, but most evidence to date comes from the North Atlantic Ocean. Here we analyze new ostracod and published foraminiferal records for the last 250,000 years on Shatsky Rise in the North Pacific Ocean. Using linear models, we evaluate statistically the ability of environmental drivers (temperature, productivity, and seasonality of productivity) to predict changes in faunal diversity, abundance, and composition. These microfossil data show glacial-interglacial shifts in overall abundances and species diversities that are low during glacial intervals and high during interglacials. These patterns replicate those previously documented in the North Atlantic Ocean, suggesting that the climatic forcing of the deep-sea ecosystem is widespread, and possibly global in nature. However, these results also reveal differences with prior studies that probably reflect the isolated nature of Shatsky Rise as a remote oceanic plateau. Ostracod assemblages on Shatsky Rise are highly endemic but of low diversity, consistent with the limited dispersal potential of these animals. Benthic foraminifera, by contrast, have much greater dispersal ability and their assemblages at Shatsky Rise show diversities typical for deep-sea faunas in other regions. Statistical analyses also reveal ostracod-foraminferal differences in relationships between environmental drivers and biotic change. Rarefied diversity is best explained as a hump-shaped function of surface productivity in ostracods, but as having a weak and positive relationship with temperature in foraminifera. Abundance shows a positive relationship with both productivity and seasonality of productivity in foraminifera, and a hump-shaped relationship with productivity in ostracods. Finally, species composition in ostracods is influenced by both temperature and productivity, but only a temperature effect is evident in foraminifera. Though complex in detail, the global-scale link between deep-sea ecosystems and Quaternary climate changes underscores the importance of the interaction between the physical and biological components of paleoceanographical research for better understanding the history of the biosphere.

Paleobiology↗

USGS2026

Effects of temperature on ectothermic predators are modulated by warming-induced changes to prey

Global temperature increases can fundamentally alter ecosystems through myriad pathways including by impacting top predators, whose movement, behavior, and trophic interactions often shape the structure of food webs and associated ecosystem processes. Forecasting how ectothermic predators will respond to climate change currently relies heavily on quantifying the direct impacts of temperature on their physiology and performance. However, prey resources are also likely to shift with warming, but less is known about how changes in ecosystem productivity may interact with rising temperatures to influence ectothermic predators. Understanding such interactions can thus help refine predictions for how these consumers will respond to a dynamic future and may clarify recent findings that some cold-water species are buffered and even benefit from warming temperatures despite elevated metabolic costs. Here, we capitalize on a growing body of literature linking temperature increases to changes in invertebrate prey assemblages to describe how these drivers interact to influence the performance (e.g., body size and growth rate) of a globally distributed ectothermic predator in freshwater ecosystems. We disentangled these drivers with a novel approach that blends conceptual synthesis and a mechanistic drift foraging-bioenergetics model developed for Oncorhynchus mykiss (rainbow trout). Overall, we found that warming-induced changes to invertebrate prey assemblage size structure, production, or both, can strongly reshape thermal performance curves describing how rainbow trout respond to temperature. Notably, we found that shifts towards larger-bodied prey or higher prey production increased trout performance across a gradient of temperatures. Additionally, our results show that these shifts in prey also increased the temperature that optimizes fish growth. Our findings underscore the critical role that prey resources may play in either buffering or amplifying future risks of warming and can help improve future conservation and management of ectothermic animals, including cold-water fish, in a warmer and rapidly changing world.

Food Webs↗

USGS2022

Exploring and mitigating plague for One Health purposes

Purpose of Review In 2020, the Appropriations Committee for the U.S. House of Representatives directed the CDC to develop a national One Health framework to combat zoonotic diseases, including sylvatic plague, which is caused by the flea-borne bacterium Yersinia pestis . This review builds upon that multisectoral objective. We aim to increase awareness of Y. pestis and to highlight examples of plague mitigation for One Health purposes (i.e., to achieve optimal health outcomes for people, animals, plants, and their shared environment). We draw primarily upon examples from the USA, but also discuss research from Madagascar and Uganda where relevant, as Y. pestis has emerged as a zoonotic threat in those foci. Recent Findings Historically, the bulk of plague research has been directed at the disease in humans. This is not surprising, given that Y. pestis is a scourge of human history. Nevertheless, the ecology of Y. pestis is inextricably linked to other mammals and fleas under natural conditions. Accumulating evidence demonstrates Y. pestis is an unrelenting threat to multiple ecosystems, where the bacterium is capable of significantly reducing native species abundance and diversity while altering competitive and trophic relationships, food web connections, and nutrient cycles. In doing so, Y. pestis transforms ecosystems, causing “shifting baselines syndrome” in humans, where there is a gradual shift in the accepted norms for the condition of the natural environment. Eradication of Y. pestis in nature is difficult to impossible, but effective mitigation is achievable; we discuss flea vector control and One Health implications in this context. Summary There is an acute need to rapidly expand research on Y. pestis , across multiple host and flea species and varied ecosystems of the Western US and abroad, for human and environmental health purposes. The fate of many wildlife species hangs in the balance, and the implications for humans are profound in some regions. Collaborative multisectoral research is needed to define the scope of the problem in each epidemiological context and to identify, refine, and implement appropriate and effective mitigation practices.

Current Tropical Medicine Reports↗

USGS2013

Linking phenology and biomass productivity in South Dakota mixed-grass prairie

Assessing the health of rangeland ecosystems based solely on annual biomass production does not fully describe plant community condition; the phenology of production can provide inferences on species composition, successional stage, and grazing impacts. We evaluate the productivity and phenology of western South Dakota mixed-grass prairie using 2000 to 2008 Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) satellite imagery at 250 m spatial resolution. Growing season NDVI images were integrated weekly to produce time-integrated NDVI (TIN), a proxy of total annual biomass production, and integrated seasonally to represent annual production by cool (C3) and warm (C4) season species. Additionally, a variety of phenological indicators including cool season percentage of TIN were derived from the seasonal profiles of NDVI. Cool season percentage and TIN were combined to generate vegetation classes, which served as proxies of plant community condition. TIN decreased with precipitation from east to west across the study area. Alternatively, cool season percentage increased from east to west, following patterns related to the reliability (interannual coefficient of variation [CV]) and quantity of mid-summer precipitation. Cool season TIN averaged 76.8% of total. Seasonal accumulation of TIN corresponded closely (R2 > 0.90) to that of gross photosynthesis data from a carbon flux tower. Field-collected biomass and community composition data were strongly related to the TIN and cool season percentage products. The patterns of vegetation classes were responsive to topographic, edaphic, and land management influences on plant communities. Accurate maps of biomass production, cool/warm season composition, and vegetation classes can improve the efficiency of land management by adjusting stocking rates and season of use to maximize rangeland productivity and achieve conservation objectives. Further, our results clarify the spatial and temporal dynamics of phenology and TIN in mixed-grass prairie.

South Dakota↗

USGS2020

Introduction: Ecological subsidies as a framework for understanding contaminant fate, exposure, and effects at the land-water interface

Ecologists have long recognized that ecological subsidies (the flow of organic matter, nutrients, and organisms between ecosystems) can strongly affect ecosystem processes and community structure in the recipient ecosystem. Animal movements, organic matter flows, and food web dynamics between linked aquatic and terrestrial systems can also influence contaminant fate, exposure, and effects at the land-water interface. Here and in this book, we develop a broad framework that highlights two important ways that ecological subsidies and contaminants interact. Ecological subsidies from the donor system can drive exposure to recipient systems, and contaminant exposures in the donor system can control subsidies and contaminant fluxes to the recipient systems. In the case of prey movement between ecosystems, subsidies drive exposure when contaminants present in aquatic environments bioaccumulate in the tissues of prey organisms at levels that are relatively non-toxic to the prey themselves. Conversely, exposure in the aquatic system can limit subsidies when pollutants are relatively toxic to prey organisms themselves and the magnitude of the subsidy (i.e., biomass of aquatic insects emerging to the terrestrial environment) is reduced. These effects of contaminants on subsidies are shaped by other global stressors that are ubiquitous in aquatic-riparian ecosystems (e.g., climate and land use change, species extinction and invasion, and eutrophication). As our understanding of these ecological and toxicological processes advances, there are increasing opportunities to make landscape-scale predictions of contaminant and animal fluxes and to integrate this knowledge of aquatic-riparian linkages into managing contaminant risks. Through these efforts to integrate the fields of ecology and ecotoxicology on this subject, we expect to gain greater insight on the ecological effects of contaminants on linked ecosystems as well as the ways in which food web dynamics and ecosystem processes can themselves govern the fate, transport, and exposure to contaminants in the environment.

Book chapter↗

USGS2005

Indirect food web interactions: Sea otters and kelp forest fishes in the Aleutian archipelago

Although trophic cascades - the effect of apex predators on progressively lower trophic level species through top-down forcing - have been demonstrated in diverse ecosystems, the broader potential influences of trophic cascades on other species and ecosystem processes are not well studied. We used the overexploitation, recovery and subsequent collapse of sea otter (Enhydra lutris) populations in the Aleutian archipelago to explore if and how the abundance and diet of kelp forest fishes are influenced by a trophic cascade linking sea otters with sea urchins and fleshy macroalgae. We measured the abundance of sea urchins (biomass density), kelp (numerical density) and fish (Catch per unit effort) at four islands in the mid-1980s (when otters were abundant at two of the islands and rare at the two others) and in 2000 (after otters had become rare at all four islands). Our fish studies focused on rock greenling (Hexagrammos lagocephalus), the numerically dominant species in this region. In the mid-1980s, the two islands with high-density otter populations supported dense kelp forests, relatively few urchins, and abundant rock greenling whereas the opposite pattern (abundant urchins, sparse kelp forests, and relatively few rock greenling) occurred at islands where otters were rare. In the 2000, the abundances of urchins, kelp and greenling were grossly unchanged at islands where otters were initially rare but had shifted to the characteristic pattern of otter-free systems at islands where otters were initially abundant. Significant changes in greenling diet occurred between the mid-1980s and the 2000 although the reasons for these changes were difficult to assess because of strong island-specific effects. Whereas urchin-dominated communities supported more diverse fish assemblages than kelp-dominated communities, this was not a simple effect of the otter-induced trophic cascade because all islands supported more diverse fish assemblages in 2000 than in the mid-1980s. ?? Springer-Verlag 2005.

Oecologia↗

USGS2014

Phytoplankton primary production in the world's estuarine-coastal ecosystems

Estuaries are biogeochemical hot spots because they receive large inputs of nutrients and organic carbon from land and oceans to support high rates of metabolism and primary production. We synthesize published rates of annual phytoplankton primary production (APPP) in marine ecosystems influenced by connectivity to land – estuaries, bays, lagoons, fjords and inland seas. Review of the scientific literature produced a compilation of 1148 values of APPP derived from monthly incubation assays to measure carbon assimilation or oxygen production. The median value of median APPP measurements in 131 ecosystems is 185 and the mean is 252 g C m −2 yr −1 , but the range is large: from −105 (net pelagic production in the Scheldt Estuary) to 1890 g C m −2 yr −1 (net phytoplankton production in Tamagawa Estuary). APPP varies up to 10-fold within ecosystems and 5-fold from year to year (but we only found eight APPP series longer than a decade so our knowledge of decadal-scale variability is limited). We use studies of individual places to build a conceptual model that integrates the mechanisms generating this large variability: nutrient supply, light limitation by turbidity, grazing by consumers, and physical processes (river inflow, ocean exchange, and inputs of heat, light and wind energy). We consider method as another source of variability because the compilation includes values derived from widely differing protocols. A simulation model shows that different methods reported in the literature can yield up to 3-fold variability depending on incubation protocols and methods for integrating measured rates over time and depth. Although attempts have been made to upscale measures of estuarine-coastal APPP, the empirical record is inadequate for yielding reliable global estimates. The record is deficient in three ways. First, it is highly biased by the large number of measurements made in northern Europe (particularly the Baltic region) and North America. Of the 1148 reported values of APPP, 958 come from sites between 30 and 60° N; we found only 36 for sites south of 20° N. Second, of the 131 ecosystems where APPP has been reported, 37% are based on measurements at only one location during 1 year. The accuracy of these values is unknown but probably low, given the large interannual and spatial variability within ecosystems. Finally, global assessments are confounded by measurements that are not intercomparable because they were made with different methods. Phytoplankton primary production along the continental margins is tightly linked to variability of water quality, biogeochemical processes including ocean–atmosphere CO 2 exchange, and production at higher trophic levels including species we harvest as food. The empirical record has deficiencies that preclude reliable global assessment of this key Earth system process. We face two grand challenges to resolve these deficiencies: (1) organize and fund an international effort to use a common method and measure APPP regularly across a network of coastal sites that are globally representative and sustained over time, and (2) integrate data into a unifying model to explain the wide range of variability across ecosystems and to project responses of APPP to regional manifestations of global change as it continues to unfold.

Biogeosciences↗

USGS2014

Management and monitoring of the endangered Shenandoah salamander under climate change: Workshop report 10-12 April 2012

Here we report on a structured decision making (SDM) process to identify management strategies to ensure persistence of the federally endangered Shenandoah salamander (Plethodon shenandoah), given that it may be at increased extinction risk under projected climate change. The focus of this report is the second of two SDM workshops; in the first workshop, participants developed a prototype of the decision, including problem frame, management objectives and a suite of potential management strategies, predictive models to inform the decision and link alternatives with the objectives to identify potential solutions, and identified data needs to reduce key uncertainties in the decision. Participants in this second workshop included experts in National Park Service policy at multiple administrative levels, who refined objectives, further evaluated the initial management alternatives, and discussed policy constraints on implementing active management for the species and its high-elevation habitat. The conclusion of the second workshop was similar to that of the first: the current state of information and objectives suggest that there is some value in considering active management to reduce the long-term extinction risk for the species, though there are institutional conservative policies to implementing active management at range-wide scales. The workshop participants also emphasized a conservative NPS management philosophy, including caution in implementing management actions that may ultimately harm the system, a stated assumption that ecosystem changes were “natural” unless demonstrated otherwise (therefore not warranting active management to mitigate), and a need to demonstrate that extinction risk is tied to anthropogenic influence prior to taking active management to mitigate specific anthropogenic influences. Even within a protected area having minimal human disturbance, intertwined environmental variables and interspecific relationships that drive population trends challenge our ability to demonstrate direct links with (anthropogenically influenced) climate change and the decline of a species. Thus while this policy may reduce the potential for injurious management, it may also necessitate extraordinary resources to reduce uncertainty regarding fundamental drivers of species decline prior to taking action.

Natural Resource Report↗

USGS2015

Application of science-based restoration planning to a desert river system

Persistence of many desert river species is threatened by a suite of impacts linked to water infrastructure projects that provide human water security where water is scarce. Many desert rivers have undergone regime shifts from spatially and temporally dynamic ecosystems to more stable systems dominated by homogenous physical habitat. Restoration of desert river systems could aid in biodiversity conservation, but poses formidable challenges due to multiple threats and the infeasibility of recovery to pre-development conditions. The challenges faced in restoring desert rivers can be addressed by incorporating scientific recommendations into restoration planning efforts at multiple stages, as demonstrated here through an example restoration project. In particular, use of a watershed-scale planning process can identify data gaps and irreversible constraints, which aid in developing achievable restoration goals and objectives. Site-prioritization focuses limited the resources for restoration on areas with the greatest potential to improve populations of target organisms. Investment in research to understand causes of degradation, coupled with adoption of a guiding vision is critical for identifying feasible restoration actions that can enhance river processes. Setting monitoring as a project goal, developing hypotheses for expected outcomes, and implementing restoration as an experimental design will facilitate adaptive management and learning from project implementation. Involvement of scientists and managers during all planning stages is critical for developing process-based restoration actions and an implementation plan to maximize learning. The planning process developed here provides a roadmap for use of scientific recommendations in future efforts to recover dynamic processes in imperiled riverine ecosystems.

San Rafael River watershed↗

USGS2021

Growth and defense characteristics of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta var latifolia) in a high-elevation, disturbance-prone mixed-conifer forest in northwestern Montana, USA

Recent, widespread tree mortality in the western U.S. resulting from changes in climate, pathogens, insect activity, and forest management practices has led to concerns for many ecologically and culturally important species. Within conifers, resin-based defenses have long been recognized as a primary defense mechanism against a variety of insects and pathogens. Oleoresin produced by trees contain complex mixtures of terpenoids that have numerous insecticidal and fungicidal properties. Research has also identified links between resin duct characteristics and increased probability of survival during bark beetle outbreaks. Whitebark pine ( Pinus albicaulis ) is a culturally significant high elevation species that provides numerous ecological services within subalpine and alpine ecosystems. Whitebark pine has co-evolved with a suite of biotic and abiotic disturbances. Individual trees allocate resources towards growth and resin-based defenses, making it a good candidate species to evaluate growth and defense relationships and tradeoffs. In this study we compared constitutive resin chemistry, tree growth and resin duct anatomy between similarly aged whitebark and lodgepole pine ( P. contorta var latifolia ) growing in proximity within a disturbance-prone, mixed-conifer forest in northwestern Montana. These two host species have varying degrees of historical exposure to mountain pine beetle. Our research yields four important findings. First, we did not find evidence of a tradeoff between tree growth and tree defenses (resin duct morphology and resin chemistry). This suggests that trees growing under favorable field conditions can experience high growth rates and still allocate ample resources towards defense. Second, we found that resin ducts and constitutive mono- and sesqui- terpenes were not correlated in lodgepole pine while duct production and area were positively related to constitutive monoterpenes, and duct size and area were positively related to constitutive sesquiterpenes, in whitebark pine. The lack of distinct, consistent relationships between these defensive features suggests that both whitebark and lodgepole pine trees present beetles with numerous, complex combinations of resin-based defenses. Third, based on constitutive terpene profiles, bark beetles are more likely to enter lodgepole pine but more likely to successfully elicit mass attacks in whitebark pine, which agrees with beetle attack and success patterns observed in the field. Fourth, overstory competition, particularly by Engelmann spruce ( Picea engelmannii ), can influence tree defenses, specifically by reducing constitutive terpene concentrations in lodgepole and whitebark pine. Competitive tree interactions could lead to altered bark beetle-conifer interactions as host and nonhost species migrate in response to changing climate. Our results suggest that strategies designed to support whitebark pine populations can benefit from better understanding interactions among growth, competition and physical and chemical defenses in response to multiple disturbance.

Montana↗

USGS2018

Effect of climate change on disease spread in wildlife

A growing body of evidence indicates that climate change alone, or acting synergistically with current anthropogenic threats, is affecting the health of wild populations of aquatic and terrestrial wildlife. Measurable by-products of climate change include elevated atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, higher average global temperatures; variations in global precipitation patterns, rising and warming oceans, altered hydrographs of rivers, and increased mid-continental drying during summer. These consequences affect the terrestrial environment through shifts in phenology, vegetation cover, and fire regimes. Warmer ocean temperatures, increased acidification, rise in sea levels, and reduction in sea ice cover are also leading to widespread ecological changes in marine systems. Wildlife populations face a variety of climate-related pressures, such as changes in animal distribution or density, limitation of food resources, and alteration to critical habitats. The increased potential for emergence and resurgence of diseases that are responsive to environmental conditions also has implications for wildlife populations. Shifts in temperature or other climatic factors may directly affect the incidence of disease in wildlife by altering host-pathogen interactions, promoting vector populations or allowing new ranges for vectors, or reducing development times for parasites. A number of examples from both field and laboratory studies have demonstrated a clear link between warming environments and disease spread. Many climate-related environmental changes also influence wildlife health indirectly. For example, increasing temperatures, in combination with shifts in rainfall and humidity, may aggravate current trends for water resource limitation and habitat degradation or destruction and lead to increased crowding of animal populations, thereby promoting transmission opportunities of pathogens within populations or across species. Although it may be difficult to disentangle the influences of other anthropogenic changes from the direct effects of warming, some ecosystems provide especially useful models for studying climate-related disease spread in wildlife. For example, the effects of climate change on parasite dynamics may be easily observed in the Arctic, where environmental changes are occurring rapidly, anthropogenic influences are relatively limited, and biodiversity is generally low. Marine ecosystems are also undergoing rapid rates of change and may be vulnerable to a variety of natural and anthropogenic perturbations. Although many factors affect the health of organisms in ocean environments, temperature has been clearly linked to an increase in disease prevalence among sessile organisms such as corals. In this chapter, we discuss observed and predicted changes to wildlife health resulting from climate change. Our review will not include all aspects of wildlife health, but will instead focus on established or suspected links between climate drivers and disease spread and discuss examples from the current literature. Here, we define disease spread to include: 1) change in geographical or altitudinal distribution of pathogens, parasites, and vectors and the diseases they cause; 2) change in prevalence or severity of disease; and 3) emergence of novel diseases. Additionally, because wildlife species serve as reservoirs for zoonotic diseases that affect both animals and humans, we include select examples of the effect of climate change on the capacity of wildlife to harbor and spread these disease agents.

Book chapter↗

USGS2020

A synthesis of the biology and ecology of sculpin species in the Laurentian Great Lakes and implications for the adaptive capacity of the benthic ecosystem

The Laurentian Great Lakes have experienced recent ecosystem changes that could lead to reductions in adaptive capacity and ultimately a loss of biodiversity and production throughout the food web. Observed changes in Great Lakes benthic communities include declines of native species and widespread success of invasive species like dreissenid mussels in all but Lake Superior. Understanding the ecology of native benthic deepwater preyfish and the reasons for their declines is important for predicting future losses in adaptive capacity and diversity, as well as managing the Great Lakes ecosystem to avoid such losses. Native sculpin species ( Cottus bairdii , C. cognatus , C. ricei , Myoxocephalus thompsonii ) historically were among the most abundant of the Great Lakes native deepwater benthic preyfish community and are an important link between offshore benthic and pelagic food webs. With one exception, these species have declined in abundance throughout the Great Lakes in recent years, but relatively little is known about their biology and ecology. This review synthesizes the available knowledge for the Great Lakes sculpin species and provides suggestions for future research efforts, which include understanding reproductive ecology and spawning behavior, connectivity and dispersal of populations, early life history, and influences of interactions with native and non-native species.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2018

Juvenile coho salmon growth and health in streams across an urbanization gradient

Expanding human population and urbanization alters freshwater systems through structural changes to habitat, temperature effects from increased runoff and reduced canopy cover, altered flows, and increased toxicants. Current stream assessments stop short of measuring health or condition of species utilizing these freshwater habitats and fail to link specific stressors mechanistically to the health of organisms in the stream. Juvenile fish growth integrates both external and internal conditions providing a useful indicator of habitat quality and ecosystem health. Thus, there is a need to account for ecological and environmental influences on fish growth accurately. Bioenergetics models can simulate changes in growth and consumption in response to environmental conditions and food availability to account for interactions between an organism's environmental experience and utilization of available resources. The bioenergetics approach accounts for how thermal regime, food supply, and food quality affect fish growth. This study used a bioenergetics modeling approach to evaluate the environmental factors influencing juvenile coho salmon growth among ten Pacific Northwest streams spanning an urban gradient. Urban streams tended to be warmer, have earlier emergence dates and stronger early season growth. However, fish in urban streams experienced increased stress through lower growth efficiencies, especially later in the summer as temperatures warmed, with as much as a 16.6% reduction when compared to fish from other streams. Bioenergetics modeling successfully characterized salmonid growth in small perennial streams as part of a more extensive monitoring program and provides a powerful assessment tool for characterizing mixed life-stage specific responses in urban streams.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2013

Thermal controls of Yellowstone cutthroat trout and invasive fishes under climate change

We combine large observed data sets and dynamically downscaled climate data to explore historic and future (2050–2069) stream temperature changes over the topographically diverse Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (elevation range = 824–4017 m). We link future stream temperatures with fish growth models to investigate how changing thermal regimes could influence the future distribution and persistence of native Yellowstone cutthroat trout (YCT) and competing invasive species. We find that stream temperatures during the recent decade (2000–2009) surpass the anomalously warm period of the 1930s. Climate simulations indicate air temperatures will warm by 1 °C to >3 °C over the Greater Yellowstone by mid-21st century, resulting in concomitant increases in 2050–2069 peak stream temperatures and protracted periods of warming from May to September (MJJAS). Projected changes in thermal regimes during the MJJAS growing season modify the trajectories of daily growth rates at all elevations with pronounced growth during early and late summer. For high-elevation populations, we find considerable increases in fish body mass attributable both to warming of cold-water temperatures and to extended growing seasons. During peak July to August warming, mid-21st century temperatures will cause periods of increased thermal stress, rendering some low-elevation streams less suitable for YCT. The majority (80%) of sites currently inhabited by YCT, however, display minimal loss (<10%) or positive changes in total body mass by midcentury; we attribute this response to the fact that many low-elevation populations of YCT have already been extirpated by historical changes in land use and invasions of non-native species. Our results further suggest that benefits to YCT populations due to warmer stream temperatures at currently cold sites could be offset by the interspecific effects of corresponding growth of sympatric, non-native species, underscoring the importance of developing climate adaptation strategies that reduce limiting factors such as non-native species and habitat degradation.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2009

Projected climate-induced faunal change in the Western Hemisphere

Climate change is predicted to be one of the greatest drivers of ecological change in the coming century. Increases in temperature over the last century have clearly been linked to shifts in species distributions. Given the magnitude of projected future climatic changes, we can expect even larger range shifts in the coming century. These changes will, in turn, alter ecological communities and the functioning of ecosystems. Despite the seriousness of predicted climate change, the uncertainty in climate-change projections makes it difficult for conservation managers and planners to proactively respond to climate stresses. To address one aspect of this uncertainty, we identified predictions of faunal change for which a high level of consensus was exhibited by different climate models. Specifically, we assessed the potential effects of 30 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) future-climate simulations on the geographic ranges of 2954 species of birds, mammals, and amphibians in the Western Hemisphere. Eighty percent of the climate projections based on a relatively low greenhouse-gas emissions scenario result in the local loss of at least 10% of the vertebrate fauna over much of North and South America. The largest changes in fauna are predicted for the tundra, Central America, and the Andes Mountains where, assuming no dispersal constraints, specific areas are likely to experience over 90% turnover, so that faunal distributions in the future will bear little resemblance to those of today. ?? 2009 by the Ecological Society of America.

Ecology↗

USGS2010

Trip report: pilot study of factors linking watershed function and coastal ecosystem health in American Samoa

Coral reef resources in the territory of American Samoa face significant problems from overfishing, non-point source pollution, global warming, and continuing population growth and development. The islands are still relatively isolated relative to other parts of the Pacific and have managed to avoid some of the more devastating invasive species that have reached other archipelagoes. As a result, there are opportunities for collaborative and integrative research and monitoring programs to help restore and maintain biodiversity and functioning natural ecosystem in the archipelago. We found that the “Ridge to Reef” paradigm already exists in American Samoa, with a high degree of interagency cooperation and efficient use of limited resources already taking place in the Territory. USGS may be able to make contributions as a partner organization in the Coral Reef Advisory Group (CRAG) through deployment of sediment monitoring instrumentation to supplement stream monitoring by the American Samoa Environmental Protection Agency, by providing high resolution vegetation and land-use maps of main islands, by providing additional support to the American Samoa Department of Marine and Wildlife Resources and the National Park Service for monitoring of invasive species, by working with members of CRAG to initiate sediment transport studies on Samoan reefs, and by developing new projects on the effects of bacterial contamination and pollutants on coral reef physiology and demography.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2015

Global trends in emerging viral diseases of wildlife origin

Fifty years ago, infectious diseases were rarely considered threats to wildlife populations, and the study of wildlife diseases was largely a neglected endeavor. Furthermore, public health leaders at that time had declared that “it is time to close the book on infectious diseases and the war against pestilence won,” a quote attributed to Dr. William H. Stewart in 1967. There is some debate whether he actually said these words; however, they reflect the widespread belief at that time (Spellberg, 2008). Leap forward to today, and the book on infectious diseases has been dusted off. There is general consensus that the global environment favors the emergence of infectious diseases, and in particular, diseases of wildlife origin (Taylor et al., 2001). Examples of drivers of these infectious diseases include climate and landscape changes, human demographic and behavior changes, global travel and trade, microbial adaptation, and lack of appropriate infrastructure for wildlife disease control and prevention (Daszak et al., 2001). The consequences of these emerging diseases are global and profound with increased burden on the public health system, negative impacts on the global economy and food security, declines and extinctions of wildlife species, and subsequent loss of ecosystem integrity. For example, 35 million people are currently living with HIV infection globally (http://www.who.int/gho/hiv/en); 400 million poultry have been culled since 2003 as a result of efforts to control highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza (http://www.fao.org/avianflu/en/index.html), and there are increasing biological and ecological consequences. Examples of health threats to biodiversity include the “spillover” of human diseases to great ape populations (Köndgen et al., 2008), the near-extirpation of the black-footed ferret from canine distemper and sylvatic plague (for a review see Abbott et al., 2012), and threats to Hawaiian forest birds from introduced pathogens such as avian malaria and avian pox (van Riper et al., 1986, 2002). There are also newly discovered pathogens or diseases that have resulted in population declines, and global extinctions of several species. Examples include Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which causes a cutaneous fungal infection of amphibians and is linked to declines of amphibians globally (Kriger and Hero, 2009); and recently discovered Pseudogymnoascus (Geomyces) destructans, the etiologic agent of white-nose syndrome (WNS), which has caused precipitous declines of North American bat species (Blehert et al., 2009). Furthermore, there is increasing evidence of the subsequent impacts on human and ecosystem health; for example, increasing risk of exposure to Lyme disease as a consequence of decreased biodiversity (LoGiudice et al., 2003) as well as the economic cost of the loss of bats due to decreased insect control services (Boyles et al., 2011). Figure A12-1 is a timeline of important diseases investigated by the U.S. Geological Survey since the 1970s, which illustrates three factors: 1. The unprecedented emergence of new pathogens and geographic spread of known pathogens since the 1990s; 2. Diseases are increasingly causing large-scale, negative impacts on wildlife populations and spreading over larger geographic areas rather than remaining localized; and 3. Diseases are increasingly of concern for multiple sectors, including public health, agriculture and wildlife management agencies. Of increasing concern are these novel diseases such as WNS as they are hard to anticipate, particularly devastating to human health or wildlife populations, challenging to manage, spread over large geographic areas in short time periods, and may result in ecological ripple effects that are difficult to predict. The following article provides examples of recently emerged viral diseases of wildlife origin. The examples have been selected to illustrate the drivers of emerging viral diseases, both novel pathogens and previously known diseases, the impacts of these diseases, as well as the role of wildlife both as “villains” or reservoirs as well as “victims” of these viral diseases. The article also discusses potential management strategies for emerging viral diseases in wildlife populations and future science directions in wildlife health to prevent, prepare, respond to, and recover from these disease events. Finally, the concept of One Health and its potential role in developing solutions to these issues of mutual concern is discussed.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2019

The evolving threat of rapid Ohia death (ROD) to Hawaii’s native ecosystems and rare plant species

Hawai‘i’s most widespread native tree, ‘ōhi‘a lehua ( Metrosideros polymorpha ), has been dying across large areas of Hawai‘i Island mainly due to two fungal pathogens ( Ceratocystis lukuohia and Ceratocystis huliohia ) that cause a disease collectively known as Rapid ‘Ōhi‘a Death (ROD). Here we examine patterns of positive detections of C. lukuohia as it has been linked to the larger mortality events across Hawai‘i Island. Our analysis compares the environmental range of C. lukuohia and its spread over time through the known climatic range and distribution of ‘ōhi‘a. Analyses show this fungal pathogen generally encompassed the core, but not the extremes of the climatic range of ‘ōhi‘a. We further modeled the potential distribution of C. lukuohia across the Hawaiian Archipelago to estimate the risk of ROD to other islands. Given the potential for C. lukuohia to alter the structure of ‘ōhi‘a dominated forests, we used our projected potential distribution of C. lukuohia to assess the risk of ROD to threatened and endangered plant species across Hawai‘i. Many native plants are likely vulnerable to these types of large ‘ōhi‘a mortality events: of 234 endangered native plant species considered, 147 (62.8%) have more than half of their range within current and expanding C. lukuohia suitable areas. We also found evidence that protecting habitat by fencing out introduced feral ungulates reduces the prevalence of the disease likely by reducing physical damage caused by these animals to ‘ōhi‘a trees, a precondition for Ceratocystis infection. Given the ongoing spread of C. lukuohia , we developed a dynamic web portal to host our results online, where models and analyses are updated with new lab-confirmed detections to provide managers with a useful tool to help monitor and assess the risk of C. lukuohia as it continues to spread.

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