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USGS2006

Genetic management guidelines for captive propagation of freshwater mussels (unionoidea)

Although the greatest global diversity of freshwater mussels (???300 species) resides in the United States, the superfamily Unionoidea is also the most imperiled taxon of animals in the nation. Thirty-five species are considered extinct, 70 species are listed as endangered or threatened, and approximately 100 more are species of conservation concern. To prevent additional species losses, biologists have developed methods for propagating juvenile mussels for release into the wild to restore or augment populations. Since 1997, mussel propagation facilities in the United States have released over 1 million juveniles of more than a dozen imperiled species, and survival of these juveniles in the wild has been documented. With the expectation of continued growth of these programs, agencies and facilities involved with mussel propagation must seriously consider the genetic implications of releasing captive-reared progeny. We propose 10 guidelines to help maintain the genetic resources of cultured and wild populations. Preservation of genetic diversity will require robust genetic analysis of source populations to define conservation units for valid species, subspecies, and unique populations. Hatchery protocols must be implemented that minimize risks of artificial selection and other genetic hazards affecting adaptive traits of progeny subsequently released to the wild. We advocate a pragmatic, adaptive approach to species recovery that incorporates the principles of conservation genetics into breeding programs, and prioritizes the immediate demographic needs of critically endangered mussel species.

Journal of Shellfish Research↗

USGS2009

Climate and hydrological changes in the northeastern United States: recent trends and implications for forested and aquatic ecosystems

We review twentieth century and projected twenty-first century changes in climatic and hydrologic conditions in the northeastern United States and the implications of these changes for forest ecosystems. Climate warming and increases in precipitation and associated changes in snow and hydrologic regimes have been observed over the last century, with the most pronounced changes occurring since 1970. Trends in specific climatic and hydrologic variables differ in their responses spatially (e.g., coastal vs. inland) and temporally (e.g., spring vs. summer). Trends can differ depending on the period of record analyzed, hinting at the role of decadal-scale climatic variation that is superimposed over the longer-term trend. Model predictions indicate that continued increases in temperature and precipitation across the northeastern United States can be expected over the next century. Ongoing increases in growing season length (earlier spring and later autumn) will most likely increase evapotranspiration and frequency of drought. In turn, an increase in the frequency of drought will likely increase the risk of fire and negatively impact forest productivity, maple syrup production, and the intensity of autumn foliage coloration. Climate and hydrologic changes could have profound effects on forest structure, composition, and ecological functioning in response to the changes discussed here and as described in related articles in this issue of the Journal.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗

USGS2023

Social vulnerability and geographic access barriers to earthquake early warning education in museums and other free choice learning environments

Given the earthquake risk on the West Coast of the United States, individuals and communities require a basic understanding of ShakeAlert earthquake early warning technology, which may provide crucial seconds of warning. Free choice learning environments (FCLEs), such as museums, public libraries, and national parks, are uniquely positioned to expand the reach of earthquake early warning through educational initiatives and resources. Earthquake education in these spaces creates awareness of earthquake hazards and risk in areas where people live or visit and may also increase engagement in preparedness behavior as they are trusted sources of information in their communities. However, population demographics within the ShakeAlert states has yet to be examined; audience segmentation theories require a better understanding of the demographics of the people the system seeks to serve. Here we build upon previous typology research that examined over 150 earthquake displays around the United States and found that most did not include information about earthquake preparedness or associated protective actions. This new research shifts to a hierarchical clustering analysis that identifies seven main population groups within the ShakeAlert states. We also find that the cost of admission and the geographic distance away from FCLEs, including the potential cost and time of transportation, may lead to an urban-rural divide in visitor access. Using audience segmentation theories as related to earthquakes, we can understand critical barriers to FCLEs and opportunities for ShakeAlert education. As earthquake early warning systems expand internationally, thoughtful and equitable education initiatives are beneficial to reach critical audiences.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗

USGS2021

Principles for collaborative risk communication: Reducing landslide losses in Puerto Rico

Landslides are frequent and damaging natural hazards that threaten the people and the natural and built environments of Puerto Rico. In 2017, more than 70,000 landslides were triggered across the island by heavy rainfall from Hurricane María, prompting requests by local professionals for landslide education and outreach materials. This article describes a novel collaborative risk communication framework that was developed to meet those requests and shaped the creation of a Spanish- and English-language Landslide Guide for Residents of Puerto Rico. Collaborative risk communication is defined here as an iterative process guided by a set of principles for the interdisciplinary coproduction of hazards information and communication products by local and external stakeholders. The process that supports this form of risk communication involves mapping out the risk communication stakeholders in the at-risk or disaster-affected location—in this case Puerto Rico—and collaborating over time to address a shared challenge, such as landslide hazards. The approach described in this article involved the formation of a core team of government and university partners that expanded in membership to conduct collaborative work with an informal network of hazards professionals from diverse sectors in Puerto Rico. The following principles guided this process: cultural competence, ethical engagement, listening, inclusive decision making, empathy, convergence research, nested mentoring, adaptability, and reciprocity. This article contributes to the field of risk communication and emergency management by detailing these principles and the associated process in order to motivate collaborative risk communication efforts in different geographic and cultural contexts. While the work described here focuses on addressing landslides, the principles and process are transferable to other natural, technological, and willful human-caused hazards. They may also serve as a roadmap for future partnerships among government agencies and university researchers to inform the cocreation of science education and outreach tools.

Puerto Rico↗

USGS1998

Viscoelastic coupling model of the San Andreas fault along the Big Bend, southern California

The big bend segment of the San Andreas fault is the 300-km-long segment in southern California that strikes about N65°W, roughly 25° counterclockwise from the local tangent to the small circle about the Pacific-North America pole of rotation. The broad distribution of deformation of trilateration networks along this segment implies a locking depth of at least 25 km as interpreted by the conventional model of strain accumulation (continuous slip on the fault below the locking depth at the rate of relative plate motion), whereas the observed seismicity and laboratory data on fault strength suggest that the locking depth should be no greater than 10 to 15 km. The discrepancy is explained by the viscoelastic coupling model which accounts for the viscoelastic response of the lower crust. Thus the broad distribution of deformation observed across the big bend segment can be largely associated with the San Andreas fault itself, not subsidiary faults distributed throughout the region. The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities [1995] in using geodetic data to estimate the seismic risk in southern California has assumed that strain accumulated off the San Andreas fault is released by earthquakes located off the San Andreas fault. Thus they count the San Andreas contribution to total seismic moment accumulation more than once, leading to an overestimate of the seismicity for magnitude 6 and greater earthquakes in their Type C zones.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2016

Topobathymetric elevation model development using a new methodology: Coastal National Elevation Database

During the coming decades, coastlines will respond to widely predicted sea-level rise, storm surge, and coastalinundation flooding from disastrous events. Because physical processes in coastal environments are controlled by the geomorphology of over-the-land topography and underwater bathymetry, many applications of geospatial data in coastal environments require detailed knowledge of the near-shore topography and bathymetry. In this paper, an updated methodology used by the U.S. Geological Survey Coastal National Elevation Database (CoNED) Applications Project is presented for developing coastal topobathymetric elevation models (TBDEMs) from multiple topographic data sources with adjacent intertidal topobathymetric and offshore bathymetric sources to generate seamlessly integrated TBDEMs. This repeatable, updatable, and logically consistent methodology assimilates topographic data (land elevation) and bathymetry (water depth) into a seamless coastal elevation model. Within the overarching framework, vertical datum transformations are standardized in a workflow that interweaves spatially consistent interpolation (gridding) techniques with a land/water boundary mask delineation approach. Output gridded raster TBDEMs are stacked into a file storage system of mosaic datasets within an Esri ArcGIS geodatabase for efficient updating while maintaining current and updated spatially referenced metadata. Topobathymetric data provide a required seamless elevation product for several science application studies, such as shoreline delineation, coastal inundation mapping, sediment-transport, sea-level rise, storm surge models, and tsunami impact assessment. These detailed coastal elevation data are critical to depict regions prone to climate change impacts and are essential to planners and managers responsible for mitigating the associated risks and costs to both human communities and ecosystems. The CoNED methodology approach has been used to construct integrated TBDEM models in Mobile Bay, the northern Gulf of Mexico, San Francisco Bay, the Hurricane Sandy region, and southern California.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

USGS2018

Coherence between coastal and river flooding along the California coast

Water levels around river mouths are intrinsically determined by sea level and river discharge. If storm-associated coastal water-level anomalies coincide with extreme river discharge, landscapes near river mouths will be flooded by the hydrodynamic interactions of these two water masses. Unfortunately, the temporal relationships between ocean and river water masses are not well understood. The coherence between extreme river discharge and coastal water levels at six California river mouths across different climatic and geographic regions was examined. Data from river gauges, wave buoys, and tide gauges from 2007 to 2014 were integrated to investigate the relationships between extreme river discharge and coastal water levels near the mouths of the Eel, Russian, San Lorenzo, Ventura, Arroyo Trabuco, and San Diego rivers. Results indicate that mean and extreme coastal water levels during extreme river discharge are significantly higher compared with background conditions. Elevated coastal water levels result from the combination of nontidal residuals (NTRs) and wave setups. Mean and extreme (>99th percentile of observations) NTRs are 3–20 cm and ∼30 cm higher during extreme river discharge conditions, respectively. Mean and extreme wave setups are up to 40 cm and ∼20–90 cm higher during extreme river discharge than typical conditions, respectively. These water-level anomalies were generally greatest for the northern rivers and least for the southern rivers. Time-series comparisons suggest that increases in NTRs are largely coherent with extreme river discharge, owing to the low atmospheric pressure systems associated with storms. The potential flooding risks of the concurrent timing of these water masses are tempered by the mixed, semidiurnal tides of the region that have amplitudes of 2–2.5 m. In summary, flooding hazard assessments for floodplains near California river mouths for current or future conditions with sea-level rise should include the temporal coherence of fluvial and oceanic water levels.

California↗

USGS2013

Economic vulnerability to sea-level rise along the northern U.S. Gulf Coast

The northern Gulf of Mexico coast of the United States has been identified as highly vulnerable to sea-level rise, based on a combination of physical and societal factors. Vulnerability of human populations and infrastructure to projected increases in sea level is a critical area of uncertainty for communities in the extremely low-lying and flat northern gulf coastal zone. A rapidly growing population along some parts of the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline is further increasing the potential societal and economic impacts of projected sea-level rise in the region, where observed relative rise rates range from 0.75 to 9.95 mm per year on the Gulf coasts of Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Florida. A 1-m elevation threshold was chosen as an inclusive designation of the coastal zone vulnerable to relative sea-level rise, because of uncertainty associated with sea-level rise projections. This study applies a Coastal Economic Vulnerability Index (CEVI) to the northern Gulf of Mexico region, which includes both physical and economic factors that contribute to societal risk of impacts from rising sea level. The economic variables incorporated in the CEVI include human population, urban land cover, economic value of key types of infrastructure, and residential and commercial building values. The variables are standardized and combined to produce a quantitative index value for each 1-km coastal segment, highlighting areas where human populations and the built environment are most at risk. This information can be used by coastal managers as they allocate limited resources for ecosystem restoration, beach nourishment, and coastal-protection infrastructure. The study indicates a large amount of variability in index values along the northern Gulf of Mexico coastline, and highlights areas where long-term planning to enhance resiliency is particularly needed.

Alabama;Florida;Louisiana;Mississippi;Texas↗

USGS1993

Caspian tern reproduction in the Saginaw Bay ecosystem following a 100-year flood event

In the 2 years that followed the 100-year flood incident of September 1986 in the Saginaw River/Bay ecosystem, the reproduction of Caspian terns collapsed and then slowly recovered. Egg viability and fledging rates of hatched chicks were drastically depressed in 1987 and 1988. Eggs from clutches laid later in the year were less viable and chicks hatched from these eggs displayed wasting syndromes and deformities. The post-flood rate of deformities in hatched chicks in 1987–1989 was 163-fold greater than background rates for this population in 1962–1967. Embryonic abnormalities and deformities were found in many embryos recovered from dead eggs. Recently published data on planar toxic chemicals from samples of forage fish, tern eggs, and chicks from water birds nesting in the bay implicate planar dioxin-like PCBs 77 and 126 as the sources of these severe bioeffects. The planar PCB congeners accounted for >98% of TCDD-EQ toxicity in the tern eggs, and several were present at levels near or at the LD95 levels each for chicken eggs. Actual TCDD was about 1% of the TCDD-EQ toxicity. Very rapid buildup rates of PCBs were measured in tern eggs. The calculated toxic potency of PCB recovered from tern eggs was about 15-fold greater than parent aroclor 1242 PCB. Smaller tern species were projected to be much more at risk than the larger Caspian tern due to greater standard metabolic rates. The study supports the view that sediment disturbance and sediment banks of toxic chemicals are major threats to upper trophic level fish-eating species.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2008

Buruli ulcer disease prevalence in Benin, West Africa: Associations with land use/cover and the identification of disease clusters

Background: Buruli ulcer (BU) disease, caused by infection with the environmental mycobacterium M. ulcerans, is an emerging infectious disease in many tropical and sub-tropical countries. Although vectors and modes of transmission remain unknown, it is hypothesized that the transmission of BU disease is associated with human activities in or around aquatic environments, and that characteristics of the landscape (e.g., land use/cover) play a role in mediating BU disease. Several studies performed at relatively small spatial scales (e.g., within a single village or region of a country) support these hypotheses; however, if BU disease is associated with land use/cover characteristics, either through spatial constraints on vector-host dynamics or by mediating human activities, then large-scale (i.e., country-wide) associations should also emerge. The objectives of this study were to (1) investigate associations between BU disease prevalence in villages in Benin, West Africa and surrounding land use/cover patterns and other map-based characteristics, and (2) identify areas with greater and lower than expected prevalence rates (i.e., disease clusters) to assist with the development of prevention and control programs. Results: Our landscape-based models identified low elevation, rural villages surrounded by forest land cover, and located in drainage basins with variable wetness patterns as being associated with higher BU disease prevalence rates. We also identified five spatial disease clusters. Three of the five clusters contained villages with greater than expected prevalence rates and two clusters contained villages with lower than expected prevalence rates. Those villages with greater than expected BU disease prevalence rates spanned a fairly narrow region of south-central Benin. Conclusion: Our analyses suggest that interactions between natural land cover and human alterations to the landscape likely play a role in the dynamics of BU disease. For example, urbanization, potentially by providing access to protected water sources, may reduce the likelihood of becoming infected with BU disease. Villages located at low elevations may have higher BU disease prevalence rates due to their close spatial proximity to high risk environments. In addition, forest land cover and drainage basins with variable wetness patterns may be important for providing suitable growth conditions for M. ulcerans, influencing the distribution and abundance of vectors, or mediating vector-human interactions. The identification of disease clusters in this study provides direction for future research aimed at better understanding these and other environmental and social determinants involved in BU disease outbreaks. ?? 2008 Wagner et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

International Journal of Health Geographics↗

USGS2010

Effects of chemical immobilization on survival of African buffalo in the Kruger National Park

Capturing, immobilizing, and fitting radiocollars are common practices in studies of large mammals, but success is based on the assumptions that captured animals are representative of the rest of the population and that the capture procedure has negligible effects. We estimated effects of chemical immobilization on mortality rates of African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in the Kruger National Park, South Africa. We used a Cox proportional hazards approach to test for differences in mortality among age, sex, and capture classes of repeatedly captured radiocollared buffalo. Capture variables did not improve model fit and the Cox regression did not indicate increased risk of death for captured individuals up to 90 days postcapture [exp (??) = 1.07]. Estimated confidence intervals, however, span from a halving to a doubling of the mortality rate (95% CI = 0.56-2.02). Therefore, capture did not influence survival of captured individuals using data on 875 captures over a 5-year period. Consequently, long-term research projects on African buffalo involving immobilization, such as associated with research on bovine tuberculosis, should result in minimal capture mortality, but monitoring of possible effects should continue.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2000

10,000 Years of explosive eruptions of Merapi Volcano, Central Java: archaeological and modern implications

Stratigraphy and radiocarbon dating of pyroclastic deposits at Merapi Volcano, Central Java, reveals ~10,000 years of explosive eruptions. Highlights include: (1) Construction of an Old Merapi stratovolcano to the height of the present cone or slightly higher. Our oldest age for an explosive eruption is 9630±60 14 C y B.P.; construction of Old Merapi certainly began earlier. (2) Collapse(s) of Old Merapi that left a somma rim high on its eastern slope and sent one or more debris avalanche(s) down its southern and western flanks. Impoundment of Kali Progo to form an early Lake Borobudur at ~3400 14 C y B.P. hints at a possible early collapse of Merapi. The latest somma-forming collapse occurred ~1900 14 C y B.P. The current cone, New Merapi, began to grow soon thereafter. (3) Several large and many small Buddhist and Hindu temples were constructed in Central Java between 732 and ~900 A.D. (roughly, 1400-1000 14 C y B.P.). Explosive Merapi eruptions occurred before, during and after temple construction. Some temples were destroyed and (or) buried soon after their construction, and we suspect that this destruction contributed to an abrupt shift of power and organized society to East Java in 928 A.D. Other temples sites, though, were occupied by "caretakers" for several centuries longer. (4) A partial collapse of New Merapi occurred <1130±50 14 C y B.P. Eruptions ~700-800 14 C y B.P. (12-14th century A.D.) deposited ash on the floors of (still-occupied?) Candi Sambisari and Candi Kedulan. We speculate but cannot prove that these eruptions were triggered by (the same?) partial collapse of New Merapi, and that the eruptions, in turn, ended "caretaker" occupation at Candi Sambisari and Candi Kedulan. A new or raised Lake Borobudur also existed during part or all of the 12-14th centuries, probably impounded by deposits from Merapi. (5) Relatively benign lava-dome extrusion and dome-collapse pyroclastic flows have dominated activity of the 20th century, but explosive eruptions much larger than any of this century have occurred many times during Merapi's history, most recently during the 19th century. Are the relatively small eruptions of the 20th century a new style of open-vent, less hazardous activity that will persist for the foreseeable future? Or, alternatively, are they merely low-level "background" activity that could be interrupted upon relatively short notice by much larger explosive eruptions? The geologic record suggests the latter, which would place several hundred thousand people at risk. We know of no reliable method to forecast when an explosive eruption will interrupt the present interval of low-level activity. This conclusion has important implications for hazard evaluation.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗

USGS2020

Antibiotic resistant bacteria in wildlife: Perspectives on trends, acquisitions and dissemination, data gaps, and future directions

The proliferation of antibiotic resistant bacteria in the environment has potential negative economic and health consequences. Thus, previous investigations have targeted wild animals to understand the occurrence of antibiotic resistance in diverse environmental sources. In this critical review and synthesis, we summarize important concepts learned through the sampling of wildlife for antibiotic resistant indicator bacteria. These concepts are helpful for understanding dissemination of resistance through environmental pathways and helping to guide future research efforts. Our review is comprised of six sections. The first section briefly introduces antibiotic resistance as it pertains to bacteria harbored in environmental sources such as wild animals. Next, we differentiate wildlife from other animals in the context of how diverse taxa provide different information on antibiotic resistance in the environment. In the third section, we identify representative research and seminal works that illustrate important associations between the occurrence of antibiotic resistant bacteria in wildlife and anthropogenic inputs into the environment. For example, we highlight numerous investigations that support the premise that anthropogenic inputs into the environment drive the occurrence of antibiotic resistance in bacteria harbored by free-ranging wildlife. Additionally, we summarize previous research demonstrating foraging as a mechanism by which wildlife may be exposed to anthropogenic antibiotic resistance contamination in the environment. In the fourth section of our review, we summarize molecular evidence for the acquisition and dissemination of resistance among bacteria harbored by wildlife. In the fifth section, we identify what we believe to be important data gaps and potential future directions that other researchers may find useful towards the development of efficient, informative, and impactful investigations of antibiotic resistant bacteria in wildlife. Finally, we conclude our review by highlighting the need to move from surveys that simply identify antibiotic resistant bacteria in wildlife towards hypothesis-driven investigations that: (1) identify point sources of antibiotic resistance; (2) provide information on risk to human and animal health; (3) identify interventions that may interrupt environmentally mediated pathways of antibiotic resistance acquisition/transmission; and (4) evaluate whether management practices are leading to desirable outcomes.

Journal of Wildlife Diseases↗

USGS1998

Frequency of effective wave activity and the recession of coastal bluffs: Calvert Cliffs, Maryland

The Calvert Cliffs, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland, USA, erode by direct wave undercutting or by freeze/thaw erosion accompanied by wave removal of slope debris. Directly undercut slopes recede more rapidly, with long-term rates exceeding 1.0 m/yr; freeze/thaw slopes recede at rates approaching 0.5 m/yr. The frequency of wave height and water level at the shoreline is estimated for eleven sites based on a 37-year wind record, estimates of storm surge, offshore wave geometry, nearshore wave transformation, and breaking wave type. Locations experiencing the largest slope recession are not uniformly those with the largest cumulative wave energy; the resistance to erosion of the slope toe must also be accounted for. An index of relative wave strength is defined as the ratio of wave pressure T and the cohesive strength S of the slope material. For the Calvert Cliffs, a minimum relative wave strength for initiating erosion of intact material is 0.05 < T/S < 0.1. A cumulative duration of ???50 hours per year for T/S ??? 0.1 distinguishes undercut and nonundercut slopes and recession rates greater or lesser than 0.5 m/yr. The relative wave strength index may be used to identify sites at risk of increased erosion. At one site with a small historical erosion rate, the loss of a protective beach and associated decrease in toe elevation caused a positive shift in the frequency of large T/S. Direct wave undercutting and increased slope recession may be anticipated at this site, as indicated by the development of an undercut notch during the course of the study.

Journal of Coastal Research↗

USGS2025

Seasonal body mass dynamics mediate life-history trade-offs in a hibernating mammal

1. Energetic acquisition and growth are key traits that affect demography and life-history strategies. Many animals that live in seasonal environments in which food availability fluctuates store energy endogenously as fat in anticipation of food shortage. Fat-storing mammalian hibernators are an extreme example of this strategy where the optimal resolution of resource allocation trade-offs is essential to survival. Hence, these species provide an opportunity to test potential causes and consequences of seasonal body mass dynamics. 2. We used a 12-year dataset with 8753 body mass records from 3351 individually marked northern Idaho ground squirrels ( Urocitellus brunneus ) – a federally threatened hibernator – to meet three objectives: (1) document seasonal body mass changes by sex, age, and reproductive status, (2) test ecological hypotheses to explain spatiotemporal variation in body mass, and (3) document fitness consequences of pre-hibernation body condition via condition-dependent overwinter survival. 3. Squirrels varied substantially in seasonal body mass dynamics. The magnitude (36-155%) and onset (late May to early July) of rapid active-season mass gain varied among demographic groups. Reproductive females acquired the necessary fat stores to survive hibernation later in the active season than did males and non-reproductive females. Moreover, squirrels with better pre-hibernation body condition were more likely to survive to the subsequent year, potentially because they allocated excess energetic reserves to prolonging hibernation via early immergence and thereby reduced predation risk. These results suggest a direct trade-off between current and future reproduction mediated by resource acquisition and allocation, as predicted by life-history theory. 4. Colder active-season temperatures and lower conspecific densities negatively influenced squirrel body condition, possibly via reductions in foraging activity associated with those conditions. These ecological effects on body condition constrain resource allocation and demographic outcomes. As such, our results can help guide research and conservation strategies to benefit hibernating animals.

Idaho↗

USGS2015

Application of the FluEgg model to predict transport of Asian carp eggs in the Saint Joseph River (Great Lakes tributary)

The Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator (FluEgg) is a three-dimensional Lagrangian model that simulates the movement and development of Asian carp eggs until hatching based on the physical characteristics of the flow field and the physical and biological characteristics of the eggs. This tool provides information concerning egg development and spawning habitat suitability including: egg plume location, egg vertical and travel time distribution, and egg-hatching risk. A case study of the simulation of Asian carp eggs in the Lower Saint Joseph River, a tributary of Lake Michigan, is presented. The river hydrodynamic input for FluEgg was generated in two ways — using hydroacoustic data and using HEC-RAS model data. The HEC-RAS model hydrodynamic input data were used to simulate 52 scenarios covering a broad range of flows and water temperatures with the eggs at risk of hatching ranging from 0 to 93% depending on river conditions. FluEgg simulations depict the highest percentage of eggs at risk of hatching occurs at the lowest discharge and at peak water temperatures. Analysis of these scenarios illustrates how the interactive relation among river length, hydrodynamics, and water temperature influence egg transport and hatching risk. An improved version of FluEgg, which more realistically simulates dispersion and egg development, is presented. Also presented is a graphical user interface that facilitates the use of FluEgg and provides a set of post-processing analysis tools to support management decision-making regarding the prevention and control of Asian carp reproduction in rivers with or without Asian carp populations.

Michigan↗

USGS2009

Variations in population exposure and sensitivity to lahar hazards from Mount Rainier, Washington

Although much has been done to understand, quantify, and delineate volcanic hazards, there are fewer efforts to assess societal vulnerability to these hazards, particularly demographic differences in exposed populations or spatial variations in exposure to regional hazards. To better understand population diversity in volcanic hazard zones, we assess the number and types of people in a single type of hazard zone (lahars) for 27 communities downstream of Mount Rainier, Washington (USA). Using various socioeconomic and hazard datasets, we estimate that there are more than 78 000 residents, 59 000 employees, several dependent-population facilities (e.g., child-day-care centers, nursing homes) and numerous public venues (e.g., churches, hotels, museums) in a Mount Rainier lahar-hazard zone. We find that communities vary in the primary category of individuals in lahar-prone areas-exposed populations are dominated by residents in some communities (e.g., Auburn), employees in others (e.g., Tacoma), and tourists likely outnumber both of these groups in yet other areas (e.g., unincorporated Lewis County). Population exposure to potential lahar inundation varies considerably-some communities (e.g., Auburn) have large numbers of people but low percentages of them in hazard zones, whereas others (e.g., Orting) have fewer people but they comprise the majority of a community. A composite lahar-exposure index is developed to help emergency managers understand spatial variations in community exposure to lahars and results suggest that Puyallup has the highest combination of high numbers and percentages of people and assets in lahar-prone areas. Risk education and preparedness needs will vary based on who is threatened by future lahars, such as residents, employees, tourists at a public venue, or special-needs populations at a dependent-care facility. Emergency managers must first understand the people whom they are trying to prepare before they can expect these people to take protective measures after recognizing natural cues or receiving an official lahar warning.

Washington↗

USGS2017

Nonnative trout invasions combined with climate change threaten persistence of isolated cutthroat trout populations in the southern Rocky Mountains

Effective conservation of Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lineages native to the Rocky Mountains will require estimating effects of multiple stressors and directing management toward the most important ones. Recent analyses have focused on the direct and indirect effects of a changing climate on contemporary ranges, which are much reduced from historic ranges owing to past habitat loss and nonnative trout invasions. However, nonnative trout continue to invade Cutthroat Trout populations in the southern Rocky Mountains. Despite management to isolate and protect these native populations, nonnatives still surmount barriers or are illegally stocked above them. We used data on the incidence of invasions by nonnative Brook Trout (BT) Salvelinus fontinalis and the rate of their invasion upstream to simulate effects on a set of 309 conservation populations of Colorado River Cutthroat Trout (CRCT) O. c. pleuriticus isolated in headwater stream fragments. A previously developed Bayesian network model was used to compare direct and indirect effects of climate change (CC) alone on population persistence versus the added effects of BT invasions. Although CC alone is predicted to extirpate only one CRCT population by 2080, BT invasions and CC together are predicted to completely extirpate 122 populations (39% of the total) if managers do not intervene. Another 113 populations (37%) will be at risk of extirpation after CC and invasions, primarily owing to stochastic risks in short stream fragments that are similar under CC alone. Overall, invasions and CC will reduce the number of stream fragments that are long enough to buffer CRCT populations against negative genetic consequences and stochastic disturbances by 48, a decrease of 38% compared to CC alone. High priorities are (1) research to estimate how CC and human factors alter the incidence and rate of BT invasions and (2) management to prevent new illegal introductions, repair inadequate barriers, and monitor and address new invasions.

Arizona, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming↗