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USGS2011

A Bayesian network to predict coastal vulnerability to sea level rise

Sea level rise during the 21st century will have a wide range of effects on coastal environments, human development, and infrastructure in coastal areas. The broad range of complex factors influencing coastal systems contributes to large uncertainties in predicting long-term sea level rise impacts. Here we explore and demonstrate the capabilities of a Bayesian network (BN) to predict long-term shoreline change associated with sea level rise and make quantitative assessments of prediction uncertainty. A BN is used to define relationships between driving forces, geologic constraints, and coastal response for the U.S. Atlantic coast that include observations of local rates of relative sea level rise, wave height, tide range, geomorphic classification, coastal slope, and shoreline change rate. The BN is used to make probabilistic predictions of shoreline retreat in response to different future sea level rise rates. Results demonstrate that the probability of shoreline retreat increases with higher rates of sea level rise. Where more specific information is included, the probability of shoreline change increases in a number of cases, indicating more confident predictions. A hindcast evaluation of the BN indicates that the network correctly predicts 71% of the cases. Evaluation of the results using Brier skill and log likelihood ratio scores indicates that the network provides shoreline change predictions that are better than the prior probability. Shoreline change outcomes indicating stability (-1 < rate < 1 m/yr) or erosion (rate < -1 m/yr) tend to occur for two sets of input scenarios. Stable shoreline change rates occur mainly for low rates of relative sea level rise and occur in low-vulnerability geomorphic settings. Rates indicating erosion result for cases where the rate of relative sea level rise is high and moderate-to-high vulnerability geomorphic settings occur. In contrast, accretion (rate > 1 m/yr) was not well predicted. We find that BNs can assimilate important factors contributing to coastal change in response to sea level rise and can make quantitative, probabilistic predictions that can be applied to coastal management decisions. Copyright ?? 2011 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

USGS2012

Advances in the simulation and automated measurement of well-sorted granular material: 1. Simulation

1. In this, the first of a pair of papers which address the simulation and automated measurement of well-sorted natural granular material, a method is presented for simulation of two-phase (solid, void) assemblages of discrete non-cohesive particles. The purpose is to have a flexible, yet computationally and theoretically simple, suite of tools with well constrained and well known statistical properties, in order to simulate realistic granular material as a discrete element model with realistic size and shape distributions, for a variety of purposes. The stochastic modeling framework is based on three-dimensional tessellations with variable degrees of order in particle-packing arrangement. Examples of sediments with a variety of particle size distributions and spatial variability in grain size are presented. The relationship between particle shape and porosity conforms to published data. The immediate application is testing new algorithms for automated measurements of particle properties (mean and standard deviation of particle sizes, and apparent porosity) from images of natural sediment, as detailed in the second of this pair of papers. The model could also prove useful for simulating specific depositional structures found in natural sediments, the result of physical alterations to packing and grain fabric, using discrete particle flow models. While the principal focus here is on naturally occurring sediment and sedimentary rock, the methods presented might also be useful for simulations of similar granular or cellular material encountered in engineering, industrial and life sciences.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

USGS2012

Effects of river regulation on aeolian landscapes, Colorado River, southwestern USA

Connectivity between fluvial and aeolian sedimentary systems plays an important role in the physical and biological environment of dryland regions. This study examines the coupling between fluvial sand deposits and aeolian dune fields in bedrock canyons of the arid to semiarid Colorado River corridor, southwestern USA. By quantifying significant differences between aeolian landscapes with and without modern fluvial sediment sources, this work demonstrates for the first time that the flow- and sediment-limiting effects of dam operations affect sedimentary processes and ecosystems in aeolian landscapes above the fluvial high water line. Dune fields decoupled from fluvial sand supply have more ground cover (biologic crust and vegetation) and less aeolian sand transport than do dune fields that remain coupled to modern fluvial sand supply. The proportion of active aeolian sand area also is substantially lower in a heavily regulated river reach (Marble–Grand Canyon, Arizona) than in a much less regulated reach with otherwise similar environmental conditions (Cataract Canyon, Utah). The interconnections shown here among river flow and sediment, aeolian sand transport, and biologic communities in aeolian dunes demonstrate a newly recognized means by which anthropogenic influence alters dryland environments. Because fluvial–aeolian coupling is common globally, it is likely that similar sediment-transport connectivity and interaction with upland ecosystems are important in other dryland regions to a greater degree than has been recognized previously.

Colorado↗

USGS2018

Consequences of abrading bed load on vertical and lateral bedrock erosion in a curved experimental channel

In this study, we conducted multiple physical experiments to estimate the efficacy and spatial pattern of erosion by abrading sediment moving through a simple U‐shaped channel bend with erodible bed and banks. The experiments showed that in the bend, lateral abrasion followed a monotonically increasing linear relationship with sediment feed rate. However, vertical incision had a more complex relation with the sediment feed rate, with an initial increase in abrasion as the feed rate increased followed by a decrease in abrasion of the bed as cover effects became dominant at higher feed rates. Bank erosion was large in places where the width and the lateral slope of the point bar were relatively large. On the other hand, in places where the width of the point bar was smaller, the bedrock bed was eroded primarily along the boundary of the point bar, resulting in a bedrock bench near the outer bank.

Shimanto River↗

USGS2018

A model ensemble for projecting multi‐decadal coastal cliff retreat during the 21st century

Sea cliff retreat rates are expected to accelerate with rising sea levels during the 21 st century. Here we develop an approach for a multi‐model ensemble that efficiently projects time‐averaged sea cliff retreat over multi‐decadal time scales and large (>50 km) spatial scales. The ensemble consists of five simple 1‐D models adapted from the literature that relate sea cliff retreat to wave impacts, sea level rise (SLR), historical cliff behavior, and cross‐shore profile geometry. Ensemble predictions are based on Monte Carlo simulations of each individual model, which account for the uncertainty of model parameters. The consensus of the individual models also weights uncertainty, such that uncertainty is greater when predictions from different models do not agree. A calibrated, but unvalidated, ensemble was applied to the 475 km‐long coastline of Southern California (USA), with 4 SLR scenarios of 0.5, 0.93, 1.5, and 2 m by 2100. Results suggest that future retreat rates could increase relative to mean historical rates by more than two‐fold for the higher SLR scenarios, causing an average total land loss of 19 – 41 m by 2100. However, model uncertainty ranges from +/‐ 5 – 15 m, reflecting the inherent difficulties of projecting cliff retreat over multiple decades. To enhance ensemble performance, future work could include weighting each model by its skill in matching observations in different morphological settings

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

USGS2018

Salt marsh loss affects tides and sediment budget in shallow bays

The current paradigm is that salt marshes and their important ecosystem services are threatened by global climate change; indeed, large marsh losses have been documented worldwide. Morphological changes associated with salt marsh erosion are expected to influence the hydrodynamics and sediment dynamics of coastal systems. Here the influence of salt marsh erosion on the tidal hydrodynamics and sediment storage capability of shallow bays is investigated. Hydrodynamics, sediment transport, and vegetation dynamics are simulated using the numerical framework Coupled Ocean‐Atmosphere‐Wave‐Sediment Transport in the Barnegat Bay‐Little Egg Harbor system, USA. We show that salt marsh erosion influences the propagation of tides into back‐barrier basins, reducing the periodic inundation and sediment delivery to marsh platforms. As salt marshes erode, the sediment trapping potential of marsh platforms decreases exponentially. In this test case, up to 50% of the sediment mass trapped by vegetation is lost once a quarter of the marsh area is eroded. Similarly, without salt marshes the sediment budget of the entire bay significantly declines. Therefore, a positive feedback might be triggered such that as the salt marsh retreats the sediment storage capacity of the system declines, which could in turn further exacerbate marsh degradation.

New Jersey↗

USGS2018

Geomorphic evolution of a gravel‐bed river under sediment‐starved vs. sediment‐rich conditions: River response to the world's largest dam removal

Understanding river response to sediment pulses is a fundamental problem in geomorphic process studies, with myriad implications for river management. However, because large sediment pulses are rare and usually unanticipated, they are seldom studied at field scale. We examine fluvial response to a massive (~20 Mt) sediment pulse released by the largest dam removal globally, on the Elwha River, Washington, United States, in an 11‐year before‐after/control‐impact study of channel morphology and grain size. We test the hypothesis that for a given flow magnitude, greater geomorphic change occurs under sediment‐rich conditions than under sediment‐starved conditions. Channel response to flow forcing was significantly different during the sediment‐pulse peak, 1–2 years after dam removal began, than earlier or later. During peak sediment supply our hypothesis was supported; major geomorphic change occurred under low flows and unit stream power ≤60 W/m 2 . However, by 4–6 years after dam removal began, rates of geomorphic change and sensitivity to stream power had decreased substantially such that our hypothesis was no longer unequivocally supported. These findings are consistent with a two‐phase conceptual model of dam‐removal response, involving a transport‐limited state followed by a more supply‐limited state. From comparisons with other dam removals and natural sediment pulses, we infer that the longevity of sediment‐pulse signals in gravel‐bed rivers depends upon gradient, river discharge, valley morphology, and sediment grain size. Stream power associated with substantial geomorphic change varies with sediment supply, such that assigning a general threshold stream power to gravel‐bed rivers may be untenable.

Washington↗

USGS2019

Reducing sampling uncertainty in aeolian research to improve change detection

Measurements of aeolian sediment transport support our understanding of mineral dust impacts on Earth and human systems and assessments of aeolian process sensitivities to global environmental change. However, sample design principles are often overlooked in aeolian research. Here, we use high‐density field measurements of sediment mass flux across land use and land cover types to examine sample size and power effects on detecting change in aeolian transport. Temporal variances were 1.6 to 10.1 times the magnitude of spatial variances in aeolian transport for six study sites. Differences in transport were detectable for >67% of comparisons among sites using ~27 samples. Failure to detect change with smaller sample sizes suggests that aeolian transport measurements and monitoring are much more uncertain than recognized. We show how small and selective sampling, common in aeolian research, gives the false impression that differences in aeolian transport can be detected, potentially undermining inferences about process and impacting reproducibility of aeolian research.

Journal of Geophysical Research F: Earth Surface↗

USGS2022

Multi-decadal simulation of marsh topography evolution under sea level rise and episodic sediment loads

Coastal marsh within Mediterranean climate zones is exposed to episodic watershed runoff and sediment loads that occur during storm events. Simulating future marsh accretion under sea level rise calls for attention to: (a) physical processes acting over the time scale of storm events and (b) biophysical processes acting over time scales longer than storm events. Using the upper Newport Bay in Southern California as a case study, we examine the influence of event-scale processes on simulated change in marsh topography by comparing: (a) a biophysical model that integrates with an annual time step and neglects event-scale processes (BP-Annual), (b) a physical model that resolves event-scale processes but neglects biophysical interactions (P-Event), and (c) a biophysical model that resolves event-scale physical processes and biophysical processes at annual and longer time scales (BP-Event). A calibrated BP-Event model shows that large (>20-year return period) episodic storm events are major drivers of marsh accretion, depositing up to 30 cm of sediment in one event. Greater deposition is predicted near fluvial sources and tidal channels and less on marshes further from fluvial sources and tidal channels. In contrast, the BP-Annual model poorly resolves spatial structure in marsh accretion as a consequence of neglecting event-scale processes. Furthermore, the P-Event model significantly overestimates marsh accretion as a consequence of neglecting marsh surface compaction driven by annual scale biophysical processes. Differences between BP-Event and BP-Annual models translate up to 20 cm per century in marsh surface elevation.

California↗

USGS2020

Atmospheric dust deposition varies by season and elevation in the Colorado Front Range, USA

As atmospheric dust deposition continues to increase across the southwestern United States, it has the potential to alter ecosystem productivity and structure by delivering nutrients, base cations, and pollutants to remote mountain sites. Due to the sparse distribution of dust monitoring sites, open questions remain about the spatial and temporal variability of dust fluxes and composition across mountainous terrain. We present a 1 year (November 2017 to November 2018) record of seasonal dust fluxes and composition from an elevation transect across the Colorado Front Range extending from the urban plains to the remote alpine. At all nine sites, dust was enriched in the essential nutrient phosphorus and the metals copper, zinc, lead, and cadmium, elements that are enriched in dust deposited at sites across the Rocky Mountain West. We observed a seasonal pattern in dust composition, with the highest concentrations of zinc and cadmium during the summer, when back trajectory modeling suggested a greater contribution of dust from local urban and agricultural regions to the east of the collection sites. During the summer, there was also a trend of higher dust fluxes at lower elevations; dust fluxes ranged from 18.9 ± 0.1 g m −2 yr −1 on the plains to 5.9 ± 0.2 g m −2 yr −1 in the alpine. Our results suggest that urban and agricultural land east of the Colorado Front Range is an important source of nutrients and pollutants to all elevations of the mountain range.

Colorado↗

USGS2020

Sea‐level rise will drive divergent sediment transport patterns on fore reefs and reef flats, potentially causing erosion on atoll islands

Atoll reef islands primarily consist of unconsolidated sediment, and their ocean‐facing shorelines are maintained by sediment produced and transported across their reefs. Changes in incident waves can alter cross‐shore sediment exchange and, thus, affect the sediment budget and morphology of atoll reef islands. Here we investigate the influence of sea level rise and projected wave climate change on wave characteristics and cross‐shore sediment transport across an atoll reef at Kwajalein Island, Republic of the Marshall Islands. Using a phase‐resolving model, we quantify the influence on sediment transport of quantities not well captured by wave‐averaged models, namely, wave asymmetry and skewness and flow acceleration. Model results suggest that for current reef geometry, sea level, and wave climate, potential bedload transport is directed onshore, decreases from the fore reef to the beach, and is sensitive to the influence of flow acceleration. We find that a projected 12% decrease in annual wave energy by 2100 CE has negligible influence on reef flat hydrodynamics. However, 0.5–2.0 m of sea level rise increases wave heights, skewness, and shear stress on the reef flat and decreases wave skewness and shear stress on the fore reef. These hydrodynamic changes decrease potential sediment inputs onshore from the fore reef where coral production is greatest but increase potential cross‐reef sediment transport from the outer reef flat to the beach. Assuming sediment production on the fore reef remains constant or decreases due to increasing ocean temperatures and acidification, these processes have the potential to decrease net sediment delivery to atoll islands, causing erosion.

Journal of Geophysical Research – Earth Surface↗

USGS2005

Coseismic slip distribution of the 1923 Kanto earthquake, Japan

The slip distribution associated with the 1923 M = 7.9 Kanto, Japan, earthquake is reexamined in light of new data and modeling. We utilize a combination of first-order triangulation, second-order triangulation, and leveling data in order to constrain the coseismic deformation. The second-order triangulation data, which have not been utilized in previous studies of 1923 coseismic deformation, are associated with only slightly smaller errors than the first-order triangulation data and expand the available triangulation data set by about a factor of 10. Interpretation of these data in terms of uniform-slip models in a companion study by Nyst et al. shows that a model involving uniform coseismic slip on two distinct rupture planes explains the data very well and matches or exceeds the fit obtained by previous studies, even one which involved distributed slip. Using the geometry of the Nyst et al. two-plane slip model, we perform inversions of the same geodetic data set for distributed slip. Our preferred model of distributed slip on the Philippine Sea plate interface has a moment magnitude of 7.86. We find slip maxima of ???8-9 m beneath Odawara and ???7-8 m beneath the Miura peninsula, with a roughly 2:1 ratio of strike-slip to dip-slip motion, in agreement with a previous study. However, the Miura slip maximum is imaged as a more broadly extended feature in our study, with the high-slip region continuing from the Miura peninsula to the southern Boso peninsula region. The second-order triangulation data provide good evidence for ???3 m right-lateral strike slip on a 35-km-long splay structure occupying the volume between the upper surface of the descending Philippine Sea plate and the southern Boso peninsula. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2002

Prehistoric ruptures of the Gurvan Bulag fault, Gobi Altay, Mongolia

The 1957 Gobi Altay M8.3 earthquake in southern Mongolia was associated with the simultaneous rupture of several faults, including the Gurvan Bulag reverse fault, which is located about 25 km south of the main strike-slip Bogd fault. Our study of paleoseismic excavations across the Gurvan Bulag fault suggests that the penultimate surface rupture occurred after 6.0 ka, most likely between 2.6 and 4.4 ka, and a possible earlier rupture occurred after 7.3 ka. Our interpretation of the stratigraphic relations in one of the exposures suggests that at least five earthquakes have generated surface rupture of the Gurvan Bulag fault since the abandonment of an ancient alluvial fan surface. Luminescence dating of sediment associated with this surface indicates that it formed either 26.6 ± 2.1 ka or 16.1 ± 2.0 ka. These data imply that the recurrence intervals for surface faulting on the Gurvan Bulag and Bogd faults are similar, on the order of several thousands of years, but that the penultimate surface ruptures of the two faults did not occur during the same earthquake.

Gobi Altay↗

USGS2008

Observations and interpretation of fundamental mode Rayleigh wavefields recorded by the Transportable Array (USArray)

Broadband recordings of the dense Transportable Array (TA) in the western United States provide unparalleled detailed images of long-period seismic surface wavefields. With 400 stations spanning most of the western United States, wavefronts of fundamental mode Rayleigh waves may be visualized coherently across the array at periods ???40 s. In order to constrain the Rayleigh wave phase velocity structure in the western United States, I assemble a data set of vertical component seismograms from 53 teleseismic events recorded by the TA from April 2006 to October 2007. Complex amplitude spectra from these recordings at peni ods 27-100 s are interpreted using the multiplane wave tomographic method of Friederich and Wielandt (1995) and Pollitz (1999). This analysis yields detailed surface wave phase velocity and three-dimensional shear wave velocity patterns across the North American plate boundary zone, elucidating the active processes in the highly heterogeneous western U.S. upper mantle.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1997

Martian drainage densities

Drainage densities on Mars range from zero over large areas of volcanic plains to 0.3–0.5 km −1 locally on some volcanoes. These values refer to geologic units, not to drainage basins, as is normal for terrestrial drainage densities. The highest values are close to the lowest terrestrial values derived by similar techniques. Drainage densities were determined for every geologic unit portrayed on the 1:15,000,000 geologic map of Mars. Except for volcanoes the geologic unit with the highest drainage density is the dissected Noachian plains with a drainage density of 0.0074 km −1 . The average drainage density for Noachian units is 0.0032 km −1 , for Hesperian units is 0.00047 km −1 , and for Amazonian units is 0.00007 km −1 , excluding the volcanoes. These values are 2–3 orders of magnitude lower than typical terrestrial densities as determined by similar techniques from Landsat images. The low drainage densities, despite a cumulative record that spans billions of years, indicate that compared with the Earth, the channel-forming processes have been very inefficient or have operated only rarely or that the surface is extremely permeable. The high drainage density on volcanoes is attributed to a local cause, such as hydrothermal activity, rather than to a global cause such as climate change.

Journal of Geophysical Research E: Planets↗

USGS2020

Timescales and processes of methane hydrate formation and breakdown, with application to geologic systems

Gas hydrate is an ice-like form of water and low molecular weight gas stable at temperatures of roughly -10ºC to 25ºC and pressures of ~3 to 30 MPa in geologic systems. Natural gas hydrates sequester an estimated one-sixth of Earth’s methane and are found primarily in deepwater marine sediments on continental margins, but also in permafrost areas and under continental ice sheets. When gas hydrate is removed from its stability field, its breakdown has implications for the global carbon cycle, ocean chemistry, marine geohazards, and interactions between the geosphere and the ocean-atmosphere system. Gas hydrate breakdown can also be artificially driven as a component of studies assessing the resource potential of these deposits. Furthermore, geologic processes and perturbations to the ocean-atmosphere system (e.g., warming temperatures) can cause not only dissociation, but also more widespread dissolution of hydrate or even formation of new hydrate in reservoirs. Linkages between gas hydrate and disparate aspects of Earth’s near-surface physical, chemical, and biological systems render an assessment of the rates and processes affecting the persistence of gas hydrate an appropriate Centennial Grand Challenge. This paper reviews the thermodynamic controls on methane hydrate stability and then describes the relative importance of kinetic, mass transfer, and heat transfer processes in the formation and breakdown (dissociation and dissolution) of gas hydrate. Results from numerical modeling, laboratory, and some fields studies are used to summarize the rates of hydrate formation and breakdown, followed by an extensive treatment of hydrate dynamics in marine and cryospheric gas hydrate systems.

Journal of Geophysical Research-Solid Earth↗

USGS2012

Mineralogy and geochemistry of a sediment‐hosted hydrothermal sulfide deposit from the Southern Trough of Guaymas Basin, Gulf of California

Samples dredged from a 15‐m‐high hydrothermal mound atop the flat turbidite pond in the Southern Trough of Guaymas Basin consist of pyrrhotite‐rich massive sulfide, barite, barite + calcite, talc, and opaline silica as well as substrate material composed of fossiliferous, clay‐rich ooze. An 11‐m‐long sediment core taken near the dredge site shows increasing hydrothermal alteration with depth; anhydrite‐filled fractures near the base of the core appear to be channels for hydrothermal discharge. Oxidation of the sulfide‐rich samples to an assemblage of geothite, lepidocrocite, and amorphous Fe oxyhydroxide is ubiquitous. Compared to other massive sulfide deposits on sediment‐starved oceanic ridges, the hydrothermal deposit dredged in Guaymas Basin has a high pyrrhotite/pyrite ratio, a low Zn sulfide and combined ore metal (Cu + Zn + Pb + Ag + Cd) content, and a greater abundance of sulfate, carbonate, and silicate phases. Venting hydrothermal solutions are alkaline with moderately high p H; high Ca, Ba, and SiO 2 content; low ƒS 2 and ƒo 2 ; and very low transition metal content. Disequilibrium assemblages of pyrrhotite and sulfate minerals form during rapid mixing of this evolved vent fluid with ambient bottom waters at the discharge site. Talc is formed at a temperature near 270°C by mixing or entrainment of Mg‐rich bottom water or pore fluid with upwelling hydrothermal fluid that is saturated with silica. Calcite may precipitate from the alkaline, Ca‐rich fluid during degassing of CO 2 . The minimum temperature range for sulfide and nonsulfide deposition is approximately 190°–326°C. The composition of hydrothermal deposits, vent solutions, and altered sediment requires that circulating fluids evolve during deep penetration into the basaltic basement complex, further interaction with the organic‐and carbonate‐rich sediment pile, and near‐surface mixing with ambient seawater. Although the stable assemblage albite‐epidote‐clinochlore present at depth in the sediment pile requires very low dissolved Mg and Fe in the altering fluid, the addition of Mg to deeply buried sediment indicates significant recharge of the system by Guaymas Basin bottom water.

Southern Trough of Guaymas Basin↗

USGS2013

The role of viscous magma mush spreading in volcanic flank motion at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i

Multiple mechanisms have been suggested to explain seaward motion of the south flank of Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai‘i. The consistency of flank motion during both waxing and waning magmatic activity at Kīlauea suggests that a continuously acting force, like gravity body force, plays a substantial role. Using finite element models, we test whether gravity is the principal driver of long-term motion of Kīlauea's flank. We compare our model results to geodetic data from Global Positioning System and interferometric synthetic aperture radar during a time period with few magmatic and tectonic events (2000-2003), when deformation of Kīlauea was dominated by summit subsidence and seaward motion of the south flank. We find that gravity-only models can reproduce the horizontal surface velocities if we incorporate a regional décollement fault and a deep, low-viscosity magma mush zone. To obtain quasi steady state horizontal surface velocities that explain the long-term seaward motion of the flank, we find that an additional weak zone is needed, which is an extensional rift zone above the magma mush. The spreading rate in our model is mainly controlled by the magma mush viscosity, while its density plays a less significant role. We find that a viscosity of 2.5 × 1017–2.5 × 1019 Pa s for the magma mush provides an acceptable fit to the observed horizontal surface deformation. Using high magma mush viscosities, such as 2.5 × 1019 Pa s, the deformation rates remain more steady state over longer time scales. These models explain a significant amount of the observed subsidence at Kīlauea's summit. Some of the remaining subsidence is probably a result of magma withdrawal from subsurface reservoirs.

Hawai'i↗