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Analysis of Alaskan burn severity patterns using remotely sensed data

Wildland fire is the dominant large-scale disturbance mechanism in the Alaskan boreal forest, and it strongly influences forest structure and function. In this research, patterns of burn severity in the Alaskan boreal forest are characterised using 24 fires. First, the relationship between burn severity and area burned is quantified using a linear regression. Second, the spatial correlation of burn severity as a function of topography is modelled using a variogram analysis. Finally, the relationship between vegetation type and spatial patterns of burn severity is quantified using linear models where variograms account for spatial correlation. These results show that: 1) average burn severity increases with the natural logarithm of the area of the wildfire, 2) burn severity is more variable in topographically complex landscapes than in flat landscapes, and 3) there is a significant relationship between burn severity and vegetation type in flat landscapes but not in topographically complex landscapes. These results strengthen the argument that differential flammability of vegetation exists in some boreal landscapes of Alaska. Additionally, these results suggest that through feedbacks between vegetation and burn severity, the distribution of forest vegetation through time is likely more stable in flat terrain than it is in areas with more complex topography. ?? IAWF 2007.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

Post-fire soil hydrologic response and recovery in northern California (USA)

Background Wildfires abruptly change landscapes by altering soil properties and vegetation cover. These changes are thought to reduce soil infiltration capacity, making landscapes susceptible to runoff and erosion. However, post-fire soil response is complex and likely varies across locations and time. Aims Here, we aim to understand regional post-fire soil response and recovery by tracking changes across different northern California (USA) lithology and vegetation types. Methods We conducted repeat in situ soil infiltration tests for 3 years post-fire at 31 burned and 10 unburned sites spanning the 2021 Dixie, 2020 LNU Lightning Complex, 2020 Walbridge and 2020 Glass fires. Key results Our two main findings are: (1) burned chaparral soils have increased hydraulic conductivity compared with unburned sites, and (2) infiltration rates return to pre-fire conditions within 3 years across most lithologies and vegetations. Conclusions Recovery might be generalizable by vegetation and lithology but differ regionally, making it important to identify meaningful hydrologic response units (HRUs). Multi-year studies with paired burned and unburned measurements can constrain the recovery timeline and provide information missed by observations solely of burned soils. Implications Understanding where, and for how long, soil remains susceptible to runoff and erosion can help prioritize areas and time periods most in need of mitigation.

California↗

Cost-effective fuel treatment planning: A theoretical justification and case-study

Modelling the spatial prioritisation of fuel treatments and their net effect on values at risk is an important area for applied work as economic damages from wildfire continue to grow. We model and demonstrate a cost-effective fuel treatment planning algorithm using two ecosystem services as benefits for which fuel treatments are prioritised. We create a surface of expected fuel treatment costs to incorporate the heterogeneity in factors affecting the revenue and costs of fuel treatments, and then prioritise treatments based on a cost-effectiveness ratio to maximise the averted loss of ecosystem services from fire. We compare treatment scenarios that employ cost-effectiveness with those that do not, and use common tools and models in a case study of the Sisters Ranger District on the Deschutes National Forest in central Oregon, USA. Using cost-effectiveness not only increases the expected averted losses from fuel treatments, but it also allows a larger area to be treated for the same cost, simply by incorporating costs and cost-effectiveness into the prioritisation routine. These results have considerable implications for policymakers and land managers trying to minimise risk. Incorporating costs into the spatial planning of treatments could allow more effective outcomes without increasing fuel treatment budgets.

Oregon↗

Synthesising empirical results to improve predictions of post-wildfire runoff and erosion response

Advances in research into wildfire impacts on runoff and erosion have demonstrated increasing complexity of controlling factors and responses, which, combined with changing fire frequency, present challenges for modellers. We convened a conference attended by experts and practitioners in post-wildfire impacts, meteorology and related research, including modelling, to focus on priority research issues. The aim was to improve our understanding of controls and responses and the predictive capabilities of models. This conference led to the eight selected papers in this special issue. They address aspects of the distinctiveness in the controls and responses among wildfire regions, spatiotemporal rainfall variability, infiltration, runoff connectivity, debris flow formation and modelling applications. Here we summarise key findings from these papers and evaluate their contribution to improving understanding and prediction of post-wildfire runoff and erosion under changes in climate, human intervention and population pressure on wildfire-prone areas.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

1984–2010 trends in fire burn severity and area for the conterminous US

Burn severity products created by the Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity (MTBS) project were used to analyse historical trends in burn severity. Using a severity metric calculated by modelling the cumulative distribution of differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) and Relativized dNBR (RdNBR) data, we examined burn area and burn severity of 4893 historical fires (1984–2010) distributed across the conterminous US (CONUS) and mapped by MTBS. Yearly mean burn severity values (weighted by area), maximum burn severity metric values, mean area of burn, maximum burn area and total burn area were evaluated within 27 US National Vegetation Classification macrogroups. Time series assessments of burned area and severity were performed using Mann–Kendall tests. Burned area and severity varied by vegetation classification, but most vegetation groups showed no detectable change during the 1984–2010 period. Of the 27 analysed vegetation groups, trend analysis revealed burned area increased in eight, and burn severity has increased in seven. This study suggests that burned area and severity, as measured by the severity metric based on dNBR or RdNBR, have not changed substantially for most vegetation groups evaluated within CONUS.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

Variability and consistency in wildfire susceptibility: Insights from a national compilation

Background Wildfire risk in the United States is rising and remains a land management priority. The quantitative wildfire risk assessment (QWRA) framework integrates fuels, topography, weather and values at risk to estimate the potential change in value from wildfire. Within this, response functions (RFs) represent how values respond to fire intensity. These are often based on expert judgment, but variation across assessments is unclear. Aims This study uses data from the US Geological Survey (USGS) Wildfire Hazard and Risk Assessment Clearinghouse to characterize consistency and variation across categories and contexts. Methods We applied descriptive statistics to summarize RFs, using tables, box-and-whisker plots and heat maps stratified by highly valued resource or asset (HVRA) category and spatial scale. Key results RFs and value definitions vary, especially for ecosystem-related resources. Some functions, such as for buildings in the wildland–urban interface (WUI), translate well across contexts, while others require more input. Conclusions Some functions are broadly transferable, while others need customization. This analysis provides references and starting points for improvement to RFs in QWRAs. Interpretations Expanding the clearinghouse and dataset and building more transparency in expert elicitation can build trust among communities, agencies and end-users, and can support efficient use of limited resources to mitigate wildfire risk.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

Canopy and surface fuels measurement using terrestrial lidar single-scan approach in the Mogollon highlands of Arizona

Background Fuel monitoring data are essential to evaluate wildfire risk, plan management activities and evaluate fuel treatment effects. Terrestrial light detection and ranging (lidar) is a field-based 3D scanning technology with great potential to reduce labor-intensive field measurements and provide new depths of vegetation structure data. Aims To facilitate the integration of terrestrial lidar into fuel monitoring programs, we developed a model, training process, and Python program that produces canopy fuel, surface fuel and terrain metrics commonly used in fire behavior and fire risk modeling. Methods We estimated canopy and surface fuel metrics from terrestrial lidar using a semi-empirical model incorporating physically based modeling of leaf area density and occlusion and a non-destructive model calibration process leveraging Bayesian regression. We compared lidar-derived fuel estimates with conventional fuel estimates across diverse conditions in semi-arid shrubland, woodland and forest in Arizona. We also compared estimates using single- and multiple-scan modes. Key results In single-scan mode, our lidar-derived fuel estimates were significantly related to conventional estimates of total canopy fuel load, maximum canopy bulk density, downed surface fuel load and standing surface fuel load. Implications Our methods provide opportunities to increase the scalability of fuel monitoring to better understand wildfire risk and treatment effectiveness.

Arizona↗

Offsetting the noise: A framework for applying phenological offset corrections in remotely sensed burn severity assessments

Background Phenological correction of pre- and post-fire imagery is used to improve remotely sensed burn severity evaluations. Unburned offset values standardize greenness between image pairs; however, efficacy across diverse scenarios remains underexplored. Aims We evaluated the impact of phenological offset correction methods to support analyst decision-making across fire-prone environments. Methods We generated burn severity spectral index values for a dataset of Composite Burn Index (CBI) field plots across the conterminous US. The effectiveness of offset corrections was tested across image selection techniques, spectral indices, offset generation methods and burn perimeter sources. We assessed the influence of offset corrections on the modeled relationship with CBI, agreement between burn severity thresholds and potential bias. Key results Applying offset corrections consistently improved the modeled relationship with CBI by addressing extreme outlier severity values. However, automated offset corrections had the potential to introduce bias, systematically lowering severity values and reducing correspondence with observed burn severity categories. Conclusions Offset corrections offer benefits but also present trade-offs to accurately representing remotely sensed burn severity. Implications The utility of offset corrections depends on the environment, methods and scale of analysis. We propose a decision-tree framework for analysts to consider when employing offset corrections given their study scope.

conterminous United States↗

The effects of seeding sterile triticale on a native plant community after wildfire in a pinyon pinemountain mahogany woodland

Post-fire seeding with grasses is a common practice for emergency rehabilitation of burned woodlands. However, most post-seeding monitoring does not address consequences to native flora. In November 2004, the US Forest Service hand-seeded triticale (Triticosecale Wittm. ex A. Camus), a sterile wheatrye hybrid, on a small burned area in the Spring Mountains of southern Nevada, United States. A monitoring project using paired plots was designed to quantify the effects of seeding triticale on density and species richness of native annual and perennial plants, cover of perennial plants, and aboveground production of annual plants. We did not find any effects of triticale seeding on annual plant species or most responses of perennial plants. However, the density of woody perennial seedlings was significantly lower 2 years after triticale was added. Although we found a smaller impact from seeding with exotic grass than other studies, quantifiable costs to native vegetation were observed. We caution against the use of non-native grass for seeding in areas with naturally low perennial recruitment. ?? IAWF 2009.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

Effects of seeding ryegrass (Lolium multiflorum) on vegetation recovery following fire in a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) forest

Forty-nine vegetation transects were measured in 1997 and 1998 to determine the impact of grass seeding after the 1996 Dome Fire, which burned almost 6900 ha of ponderosa pine ( Pinus ponderosa Lawson) forest in the Jemez Mountains of north-central New Mexico. High- and moderate-burned areas in Santa Fe National Forest were seeded with a mixture that included the exotic ryegrass ( Lolium multiflorum Lam.). Adjacent burned areas of Bandelier National Monument were not seeded, and were used as a control in the post-seeding study. On the seeded plots, foliar cover of ryegrass declined from 1997 to 1998 due to self-inhibition and/or reduced precipitation from 1997 to 1998. Foliar cover and diversity of native forbs were greater in 1997 than 1998, probably due to a wet growing season in 1997. Cover, species richness, and diversity of native forbs were highest in non-seeded areas of moderate- and high-burn intensities. Regeneration and survivorship of conifer seedlings decreased as ryegrass cover increased, particularly in areas of high-burn intensity. Exotic plant cover, mostly horseweed [ Conyza canadensis (L.) Cronq.], increased from 1997 to 1998 in non-seeded areas of moderate- and high-burn intensity. Both the initial success of seeding and the eventual impacts on native vegetation were strongly modulated by climate variability.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

Effect of mastication and other mechanical treatments on fuel structure in chaparral

Mechanical fuel treatments are a common pre-fire strategy for reducing wildfire hazard that alters fuel structure by converting live canopy fuels to a compacted layer of dead surface fuels. Current knowledge concerning their effectiveness, however, comes primarily from forest-dominated ecosystems. Our objectives were to quantify and compare changes in shrub-dominated chaparral following crushing, mastication, re-mastication and mastication-plus-burning treatments, and to assess treatment longevity. Results from analysis of variance (ANOVA) identified significant differences in all fuel components by treatment type, vegetation type and time since treatment. Live woody fuel components of height, cover and mass were positively correlated with time since treatment, whereas downed woody fuel components were negatively correlated. Herbaceous fuels, conversely, were not correlated, and exhibited a 5-fold increase in cover across treatment types in comparison to controls. Average live woody fuel recovery was 50% across all treatment and vegetation types. Differences in recovery between time-since-treatment years 1–8 ranged from 32–65% and exhibited significant positive correlations with time since treatment. These results suggest that treatment effectiveness is short term due to the rapid regrowth of shrubs in these systems and is compromised by the substantial increase in herbaceous fuels. Consequences of not having a full understanding of these treatments are serious and leave concern for their widespread use on chaparral-dominated landscapes.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

Toward a national fuels mapping strategy: Lessons from selected mapping programs

The establishment of a robust national fuels mapping program must be based on pertinent lessons from relevant national mapping programs. Many large-area mapping programs are under way in numerous Federal agencies. Each of these programs follows unique strategies to achieve mapping goals and objectives. Implementation approaches range from highly centralized programs that use tightly integrated standards and dedicated staff, to dispersed programs that permit considerable flexibility. One model facilitates national consistency, while the other allows accommodation of locally relevant conditions and issues. An examination of the programmatic strategies of four national vegetation and land cover mapping initiatives can identify the unique approaches, accomplishments, and lessons of each that should be considered in the design of a national fuel mapping program. The first three programs are the U.S. Geological Survey Gap Analysis Program, the U.S. Geological Survey National Land Cover Characterization Program, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Survey National Wetlands Inventory. A fourth program, the interagency Multiresolution Land Characterization Program, offers insights in the use of partnerships to accomplish mapping goals. Collectively, the programs provide lessons, guiding principles, and other basic concepts that can be used to design a successful national fuels mapping initiative.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

A critical assessment of the Burning Index in Los Angeles County, California

The Burning Index (BI) is commonly used as a predictor of wildfire activity. An examination of data on the BI and wildfires in Los Angeles County, California, from January 1976 to December 2000 reveals that although the BI is positively associated with wildfire occurrence, its predictive value is quite limited. Wind speed alone has a higher correlation with burn area than BI, for instance, and a simple alternative point process model using wind speed, relative humidity, precipitation and temperature well outperforms the BI in terms of predictive power. The BI is generally far too high in winter and too low in fall, and may exaggerate the impact of individual variables such as wind speed or temperature during times when other variables, such as precipitation or relative humidity, render the environment ill suited for wildfires. ?? IAWF 2007.

International Journal of Wildland Fire↗

The importance of building construction materials relative to other factors affecting structure survival during wildfire

Structure loss to wildfire is a serious problem in wildland-urban interface areas across the world. Laboratory experiments suggest that fire-resistant building construction and design could be important for reducing structure destruction, but these need to be evaluated under real wildfire conditions, especially relative to other factors. Using empirical data from destroyed and surviving structures from large wildfires in southern California, we evaluated the relative importance of building construction and structure age compared to other local and landscape-scale variables associated with structure survival. The local-scale analysis showed that window preparation was especially important but, in general, creating defensible space adjacent to the home was as important as building construction. At the landscape scale, structure density and structure age were the two most important factors affecting structure survival, but there was a significant interaction between them. That is, young structure age was most important in higher-density areas where structure survival overall was more likely. On the other hand, newer-construction structures were less likely to survive wildfires at lower density. Here, appropriate defensible space near the structure and accessibility to major roads were important factors. In conclusion, community safety is a multivariate problem that will require a comprehensive solution involving land use planning, fire-safe construction, and property maintenance.

International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction↗