SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Global Change and Human Health”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

USGS2026

Occurrence of cyanobacteria and associated cyanotoxins in the Raritan Basin Water Supply Complex, New Jersey, August 2020 to August 2021

Harmful algal blooms, particularly cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (cyanoHABs), have emerged as a substantial global concern because of their detrimental effects on water quality and aquatic ecosystem health. CyanoHABs can produce cyanotoxins, which pose serious health risks to humans and wildlife, such as liver failure and respiratory distress. This is particularly concerning for water bodies that serve as drinking-water sources. Recent trends indicate an increase in the frequency and intensity of cyanoHABs globally. This study focuses on the Raritan Basin Water Supply Complex in New Jersey, where extensive monitoring was conducted from August 2020 to August 2021 to assess the presence of cyanobacteria and associated cyanotoxins. The research utilized a combination of discrete water-quality sampling, continuous monitoring, and solid phase adsorption toxin tracking (SPATT) to capture the dynamics of cyanotoxin occurrence and potential transport. Findings revealed a widespread presence of cyanobacteria and potential for cyanotoxin production, although actual cyanotoxin concentrations remained below drinking water and recreational thresholds. The study, conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in collaboration with the New Jersey Water Supply Authority (NJWSA) and the New Jersey Department of Environmental Protection (NJDEP), highlighted the limitations of traditional sampling methods and emphasized that continuous monitoring can support better understanding of how cyanoHAB conditions change over time and in different places. Genetic testing included quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) analyses, which demonstrated higher sensitivity, or increased findings of cyanobacteria compared to microscopy, indicating the potential for use in early warning systems. This research underscores that integrating various detection methods and hydrological data can enhance understanding of cyanotoxin dynamics in river systems.

New Jersey↗

USGS2002

Rocky Mountain futures: An ecological perspective

The Rocky Mountain West is largely arid and steep, with ecological scars from past human use visible for hundreds of years. Just how damaging were the past 150 years of activity? How do current rates of disturbance compare with past mining, grazing, and water diversion activities? In the face of constant change, what constitutes a "natural" ecosystem? And can a high quality of life be achieved for both human and natural communities in this region. Rocky Mountain Futures presents a comprehensive and wide-ranging examination of the ecological consequences of past, current, and future human activities in the Rocky Mountain region of the United States and Canada. The book brings together 32 leading ecologists, geographers, and other scientists and researchers to present an objective assessment of the cumulative effects of human activity on the region's ecological health and to consider changes wrought by past human use. This combined view of past and present reveals where Rocky Mountain ecosystems are heading, and the authors project what the future holds based upon current economic and social trends and the patterns that emerge from them. The book: examines the biogeographic and paleoenvironmental setting and historical climate that have shaped Rocky Mountain ecosystems traces the direct human influences on landscapes and ecosystems over the past 150 years explores the cumulative effects of past, present, and projected future human activities on tundra, subalpine and montane forests, valleys, grasslands, and waters offers case studies that illustrate specific examples of human influence and current efforts to restore the environment Case studies focus on northern New Mexico; Summit County, Colorado; Flathead Valley, Montana; and Alberta, Canada. Among the contributors are Craig D. Allen, N. Thompson Hobbs, Linda L. Joyce, Robert E. Keane, David Schindler, Timothy R. Seastedt, David Theobald, Diana Tomback, William Travis, Cathy Whitlock, and Jack Stanford. The United Nations has proclaimed 2002 as the International Year of Mountains to increase international awareness of the global importance of mountain ecosystems. The case-based multidisciplinary approach of this book constitutes an important new model for understanding the implications of land-use practices and economic activity on mountains, and will serve a vital role in improving decisionmaking both in the Rocky Mountains and in other parts of the world that face similar challenges.

Book↗

USGS2024

Societal benefits of cyanobacteria harmful algal bloom management in Lake Okeechobee in Florida—Potential damages avoided during the 2018 event under U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Harmful Algal Bloom Interception, Treatment, and Transformation System scenarios

Freshwater harmful algal blooms (HABs) formed by blue-green algae, or cyanobacteria, have emerged as a global environmental problem. Their negative impacts on aquatic ecosystems can affect the benefits nature provides to human society by reducing water quality; inhibiting aquatic recreation; killing fish, wildlife, and pets; and posing a risk to human health. To manage harmful algal blooms, the Engineer Research and Development Center of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers is developing an advanced technology called the Harmful Algal Bloom Interception, Treatment, and Transformation System (HABITATS), which has been tested in pilot demonstrations upstream of spillways at HAB-affected waterbodies in Florida. The U.S. Geological Survey and cooperators from the U.S. Department of the Interior Office of Policy Analysis investigated the societal benefits of HABITATS technology by using data from an actual 2018 harmful algal bloom in Lake Okeechobee to characterize the observed societal impacts and then comparing observed effects to hypothetical scenarios of HABITATS deployment. This study estimated an economic value of $5.5 million in foregone recreation as a result of closed boating ramp facilities and other restrictions on aquatic recreation such as fishing and swimming during the 2018 cyanobacteria harmful algal bloom outbreak. The change in housing sales prices that could have resulted from murky water or bad odor during that outbreak was estimated as $2.3 million. The team also investigated drinking water contamination and human illness but did not find significant societal impacts in this case. If HABITATS had been deployed, the avoided losses less the cost of management could have provided net societal benefits that ranged between negative $2.1 million and positive $0.8 million, depending on the vertical distribution of algae in the water column and the HABITATS version used. The study’s estimated societal benefit is undoubtedly a lower bound estimate because current scientific knowledge is inadequate to characterize, or monetize, all the impacts.

Florida↗

USGS2024

Simulating past and future fire impacts on Mediterranean ecosystems

Worldwide, large wildfires are becoming increasingly common, leading to economic damages and threatening ecosystems and human health. Under future climate change, more frequent fire disturbance may push ecosystems into non-forested alternative stable states. Fire-prone ecosystems such as those in the Mediterranean Basin are expected to be particularly vulnerable, but the position of tipping points is unclear. We compare long-term palaeoecological data from Sardinia with output from a process-based dynamic vegetation model to investigate the mechanisms controlling the complex interactions between fire, climate, and vegetation in the past and the future. Our results show that past vegetation changes from Erica -shrublands to mixed evergreen-broadleaved Quercus ilex -dominated forests were driven by a climate-induced fire regime shift. By simulating vegetation dynamics under varying fire regimes, we could reproduce Holocene vegetation trajectories and mechanistically identify tipping points. Without an immediate reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, we simulate future expansion of fire-prone Mediterranean maquis and increasing fire occurrence. Similarly, high anthropogenic ignition frequencies and plantations of non-native, highly flammable trees could induce a shift to fire-adapted Erica shrublands. However, our simulations indicate that if global warming can be kept below 2°C, Quercus ilex forests will be able to persist and effectively reduce fire occurrences and impacts, making them a valuable restoration target in Mediterranean ecosystems. Synthesis . By combining long-term records of ecosystem change with a dynamic vegetation model, we show that past climate-driven fire regime shifts were the main driver of vegetation change, creating alternative stable states that persisted over centuries. Projected future climate change exceeding Holocene variability leads to pronounced vegetation changes and increased fire risks in our simulations, requiring new fire management strategies to maintain current ecosystem services.

Journal of Ecology↗

USGS2018

Future southcentral US wildfire probability due to climate change

Globally, changing fire regimes due to climate is one of the greatest threats to ecosystems and society. In this paper, we present projections of future fire probability for the southcentral USA using downscaled climate projections and the Physical Chemistry Fire Frequency Model (PC2FM). Future fire probability is projected to both increase and decrease across the study region of Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. Among all end-of-century projections, change in fire probabilities (CFPs) range from − 51 to + 240%. Greatest absolute increases in fire probability are shown for areas within the range of approximately 75 to 160 cm mean annual precipitation (MAP), regardless of climate model. Although fire is likely to become more frequent across the southcentral USA, spatial patterns may remain similar unless significant increases in precipitation occur, whereby more extensive areas with increased fire probability are predicted. Perhaps one of the most important results is illumination of climate changes where fire probability response (+, −) may deviate (i.e., tipping points). Fire regimes of southcentral US ecosystems occur in a geographic transition zone from reactant- to reaction-limited conditions, potentially making them uniquely responsive to different scenarios of temperature and precipitation changes. Identification and description of these conditions may help anticipate fire regime changes that will affect human health, agriculture, species conservation, and nutrient and water cycling.

Climate Change↗

USGS2025

Mountain sentinels in a changing world: Review and conservation implications of weather and climate effects on mountain goats (Oreamnos americanus)

Climate change is occurring at an accelerated rate in high-elevation alpine and mountain ecosystems. Cold-adapted, mountain species are at risk due to forecasted change and knowledge is needed to respond to current and future conservation challenges. Mountain goats ( Oreamnos americanus ) are an iconic species of North American mountain cultures and landscapes, and due to specialized adaptations for life in cold, mountainous environments they are particularly sensitive to changes in weather and climate. As sentinels of change in alpine ecosystems, the study of mountain goats offers insight into the ecological effects and conservation challenges associated with climate change in these sensitive and biodiverse environments. Here, we synthesize existing knowledge about how climate change is expected to influence environmental conditions experienced by mountain goats and associated mechanistic changes to behavior, nutritional ecology, demography, health, and interspecific interactions. In many instances, climate change effects are likely to be negative and additive to existing threats (such as human disturbance, hunting, disease, predation) though benefits are expected in some cases. Changes in climate and mountain environments will necessitate re-examination and modification of population monitoring, management, and conservation strategies. Specifically, spatiotemporal (and other) aspects of monitoring and management may need to be adjusted to accommodate emerging and novel conservation challenges. Yet, key data and knowledge gaps remain and should be addressed to advance conservation and decision-making capabilities. For mountain goats and similarly climate-sensitive alpine herbivores, effective conservation will ultimately benefit from collaborations among diverse networks guided by well-planned, strategic visions focused on common ground – namely the resiliency and persistence of culturally and ecologically significant mountain species and the alpine environment they inhabit.

Alaska, Alberta, British Columbia, Idaho, Montana,↗

USGS2020

Geomorphic and sedimentary effects of modern climate change: Current and anticipated future conditions in the western United States

Hydroclimatic changes associated with global warming over the past 50 years have been documented widely, but physical landscape responses are poorly understood thus far. Detecting sedimentary and geomorphic signals of modern climate change presents challenges owing to short record lengths, difficulty resolving signals in stochastic natural systems, influences of land use and tectonic activity, long‐lasting effects of individual extreme events, and variable connectivity in sediment‐routing systems. We review existing literature to investigate the nature and extent of sedimentary and geomorphic responses to modern climate change, focusing on the western United States, a region with generally high relief and high sediment yield likely to be sensitive to climatic forcing. Based on fundamental geomorphic theory and empirical evidence from other regions, we anticipate climate‐driven changes to slope stability, watershed sediment yields, fluvial morphology, and aeolian sediment mobilization in the western U.S. We find evidence for recent climate‐driven changes to slope stability and increased aeolian dune and dust activity, whereas changes in sediment yields and fluvial morphology have been linked more commonly to non‐climatic drivers thus far. Detecting effects of climate change will require better understanding how landscape response scales with disturbance, how lag times and hysteresis operate within sedimentary systems, and how to distinguish the relative influence and feedbacks of superimposed disturbances. The ability to constrain geomorphic and sedimentary response to rapidly progressing climate change has widespread implications for human health and safety, infrastructure, water security, economics, and ecosystem resilience.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗

USGS2016

Land-use change reduces habitat suitability for supporting managed honey bee colonies in the Northern Great Plains

Human reliance on insect pollination services continues to increase even as pollinator populations exhibit global declines. Increased commodity crop prices and federal subsidies for biofuel crops, such as corn and soybeans, have contributed to rapid land-use change in the US Northern Great Plains (NGP), changes that may jeopardize habitat for honey bees in a part of the country that supports >40% of the US colony stock. We investigated changes in biofuel crop production and grassland land covers surrounding ∼18,000 registered commercial apiaries in North and South Dakota from 2006 to 2014. We then developed habitat selection models to identify remotely sensed land-cover and land-use features that influence apiary site selection by Dakota beekeepers. Our study demonstrates a continual increase in biofuel crops, totaling 1.2 Mha, around registered apiary locations in North and South Dakota. Such crops were avoided by commercial beekeepers when selecting apiary sites in this region. Furthermore, our analysis reveals how grasslands that beekeepers target when selecting commercial apiary locations are becoming less common in eastern North and South Dakota, changes that may have lasting impact on pollinator conservation efforts. Our study highlights how land-use change in the NGP is altering the landscape in ways that are seemingly less conducive to beekeeping. Our models can be used to guide future conservation efforts highlighted in the US national pollinator health strategy by identifying areas that support high densities of commercial apiaries and that have exhibited significant land-use changes.

North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2024

Dust in the Critical Zone: North American case studies

The dust cycle facilitates the exchange of particles among Earth's major systems, enabling dust to traverse ecosystems, cross geographic boundaries, and even move uphill against the natural flow of gravity. Dust in the atmosphere is composed of a complex and ever-changing mixture that reflects the evolving human footprint on the landscape. The emission, transport, and deposition of dust interacts with and connects Critical Zone processes at all spatial and temporal scales. Landscape properties, land use, and climatic factors influence the wind erosion of soil and nutrient loss, which alters the long-term ecological dynamics at erosional locations. Once in the atmosphere, dust particles influence the amount of solar radiation reaching Earth, and interact with longwave (terrestrial) radiation, with cascading effects on the climate system. Finally, the wet and dry deposition of particles influences ecosystem structure, composition, and function over both short and long-term scales. Tracking dust particles from source to sink relies on monitoring and measurement of the geochemical composition and size distribution of the particles, space-borne and ground-based remote sensing, and dust modeling. Dust is linked to human systems via land use and policies that contribute to dust emissions and the health-related consequences of particulate loads and composition. Despite the significant influence dust has in shaping coupled natural-human systems, it has not been considered a key component of the Critical Zone. Here, we demonstrate that dust particles should be included as a key component of the Critical Zone by outlining how dust interacts with and shapes Earth System processes from generation, through transport, to deposition. We synthesize current understanding from global research and identify critical data and knowledge gaps while showcasing case studies from North America.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS2020

A synthesis of patterns of environmental mercury inputs, exposure and effects in New York State

Mercury (Hg) pollution is an environmental problem that adversely affects human and ecosystem health at local, regional, and global scales—including within New York State. More than two-thirds of the Hg currently released to the environment originates, either directly or indirectly, from human activities. Since the early 1800s, global atmospheric Hg concentrations have increased by three- to eight-fold over natural levels. In the U.S., atmospheric emissions and point-source releases to waterways increased following industrialization into the mid-1980s. Since then, water discharges have largely been curtailed. As a result, Hg emissions, atmospheric concentrations, and deposition over the past few decades have declined across the eastern U.S. Despite these decreases, Hg pollution persists. To inform policy efforts and to advance public understanding, the New York State Energy Research and Development Authority (NYSERDA) sponsored a scientific synthesis of information on Hg in New York State. This effort includes 23 papers focused on Hg in atmospheric deposition, water, fish, and wildlife published in Ecotoxicology . New York State experiences Hg contamination largely due to atmospheric deposition. Some landscapes are inherently sensitive to Hg inputs driven by the transport of inorganic Hg to zones of methylation, the conversion of inorganic Hg to methylmercury, and the bioaccumulation and biomagnification along food webs. Mercury concentrations exceed human and ecological risk thresholds in many areas of New York State, particularly the Adirondacks, Catskills, and parts of Long Island. Mercury concentrations in some biota have declined in the Eastern Great Lakes Lowlands and the Northeastern Highlands over the last four decades, concurrent with decreases in water releases and air emissions from regional and U.S. sources. However, widespread changes have not occurred in other ecoregions of New York State. While the timing and magnitude of the response of Hg levels in biota varies, policies expected to further diminish Hg emissions should continue to decrease Hg concentrations in food webs, yielding benefits to the fish, wildlife, and people of New York State. Anticipated improvements in the Hg status of aquatic ecosystems are likely to be greatest for inland surface waters and should be roughly proportional to declines in atmospheric Hg deposition. Efforts that advance recovery from Hg pollution in recent years have yielded significant progress, but Hg remains a pollutant of concern. Indeed, due to this extensive compilation of Hg observations in biota, it appears that the extent and intensity of the contamination on the New York landscape and waterscape is greater than previously recognized. Understanding the extent of Hg contamination and recovery following decreases in atmospheric Hg deposition will require further study, underscoring the need to continue existing monitoring efforts.

New York↗

USGS2024

Assessing and implementing the concept of Blue Economy in Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries: Lessons from coupled human and natural systems

Inland fisheries often receive little to no attention in global discussions about sustainable development. The consequences of overlooking inland fisheries in sustainability dialogues are increasingly problematic as fisheries stressors (e.g., overharvest, species invasion, climate change, habitat modification) intensify. Elevating the global profile of inland fisheries requires an approach for quantifying and clearly conveying the ecological, economic, and societal values of these systems. One such approach involves the Blue Economy, a multifaceted concept initially used to describe the intersection of marine conservation and sustainable use of marine resources for economic growth. Although conceptually powerful, the Blue Economy has rarely been applied to inland waters and fisheries. To address this knowledge gap, we conceptualized Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries from a Blue Economy perspective. In particular, we evaluated the utility of the coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) framework for characterizing the ecological, economic, and societal values of Laurentian Great Lakes fisheries and associated contributions to the Blue Economy (e.g., human livelihoods, food security, recreation, conservation, economic prosperity). There are numerous opportunities to leverage CHANS methods (e.g., metacoupling, telecoupling) and associated mathematical models to advance fisheries science, inform fisheries management, and ultimately move toward a Blue Economy in the Laurentian Great Lakes. To that end, we demonstrated applications of CHANS methods, discussed strategies for communicating with stakeholders, and provided insights for navigating challenges to developing a Blue Economy in the Laurentian Great Lakes—a model that could be used in the African Great Lakes and other large ecosystems in the world.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗

USGS2022

Paralytic shellfish toxins associated with Arctic Tern mortalities in Alaska

Harmful algal blooms produce biotoxins that can injure or kill fish, wildlife, and humans. These blooms occur naturally but have intensified in many locations globally due to recent climatic changes, including ocean warming. Such changes are especially pronounced in northern regions, where the effects of paralytic shellfish toxins (PSTs) on marine wildlife are of growing concern. In Alaska, seabird mortality events have increased in frequency, magnitude, and duration since 2015 alongside anomalously high ocean temperatures. Although starvation has been implicated as the apparent cause of death in many of these die-offs, saxitoxin (STX) and other PSTs have been identified as possible contributing factors. Here, we describe a mortality event at a nesting colony of Arctic Terns ( Sterna paradisaea ) near Juneau, Alaska in 2019 and report elevated concentrations of PSTs in bird, forage fish, and mussel samples. Concentrations of STX and other PSTs in tern tissues (2.5–51.2 µg 100g −1 STX-equivalents [STX-eq]) were of similar magnitude to those reported from other PST-induced bird die-offs. We documented high PST concentrations in blue mussels (>11,000 µg 100g −1 STX-eq; Mytilus edulis spp.) collected from nearby beaches, as well as in forage fish (up to 494 µg 100g −1 STX-eq) retrieved from Arctic Tern nests, thereby providing direct evidence of PST exposure via the terns’ prey. At maximum concentrations measured in this study, a single 5 g Pacific Sand Lance ( Ammodytes personatus ) could exceed the median lethal STX dose (LD 50 ) currently estimated for birds, offering strong support for PSTs as a likely source of tern mortality. In addition to describing this localized bird mortality event, we used existing energetics data from adult and nestling Arctic Terns to calculate estimated cumulative daily PST exposure based on ecologically relevant concentrations in forage fish. Our estimates revealed potentially lethal levels of PST exposure even at relatively low (≤30 ug 100g −1 STX-eq) toxin concentrations in prey. These findings suggest that PSTs present a significant hazard to Arctic Terns and other northern seabirds and should be included in future investigations of avian mortality events as well as assessments of population health.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

Implications of zoonoses from hunting and use of wildlife in North American arctic and boreal biomes: Pandemic potential, monitoring, and mitigation

The COVID-19 pandemic has re-focused attention on mechanisms that lead to zoonotic disease spillover and spread. Commercial wildlife trade, and associated markets, are recognized mechanisms for zoonotic disease emergence, resulting in a growing global conversation around reducing human disease risks from spillover associated with hunting, trade, and consumption of wild animals. These discussions are especially relevant to people who rely on harvesting wildlife to meet nutritional, and cultural needs, including those in Arctic and boreal regions. Global policies around wildlife use and trade can impact food sovereignty and security, especially of Indigenous Peoples. We reviewed known zoonotic pathogens and current risks of transmission from wildlife (including fish) to humans in North American Arctic and boreal biomes, and evaluated the epidemic and pandemic potential of these zoonoses. We discuss future concerns, and consider monitoring and mitigation measures in these changing socio-ecological systems. While multiple zoonotic pathogens circulate in these systems, risks to humans are mostly limited to individual illness or local community outbreaks. These regions are relatively remote, subject to very cold temperatures, have relatively low wildlife, domestic animal, and pathogen diversity, and in many cases low density, including of humans. Hence, favorable conditions for emergence of novel diseases or major amplification of a spillover event are currently not present. The greatest risk to northern communities from pathogens of pandemic potential is via introduction with humans visiting from other areas. However, Arctic and boreal ecosystems are undergoing rapid changes through climate warming, habitat encroachment, and development; all of which can change host and pathogen relationships, thereby affecting the probability of the emergence of new (and re-emergence of old) zoonoses. Indigenous leadership and engagement in disease monitoring, prevention and response, is vital from the outset, and would increase the success of such efforts, as well as ensure the protection of Indigenous rights as outlined in the United Nations Declaration on the Rights of Indigenous Peoples. Partnering with northern communities and including Indigenous Knowledge Systems would improve the timeliness, and likelihood, of detecting emerging zoonotic risks, and contextualize risk assessments to the unique human-wildlife relationships present in northern biomes.

Frontiers in Public Health↗

USGS2010

The potential influence of changing climate on the persistence of salmonids of the inland west

The Earth's climate warmed steadily during the 20th century, and mean annual air temperatures are estimated to have increased by 0.6°C (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). Although many cycles of warming and cooling have occurred in the past, the most recent warming period is unique in its rate and magnitude of change (Siegenthaler and others, 2005) and in its association with anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , 2007). The climate in the western United States warmed in concert with the global trend but at an accelerated rate (+0.8°C during the 20th century; Saunders and others, 2008). The region could also prove especially sensitive to future changes because the relatively small human population is growing rapidly, as are demands on limited water supplies. Regional hydrological patterns are dominated by seasonal snow accumulation at upper elevations. Most of the region is relatively dry, and both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems are strongly constrained b y water availability (Barnett and others, 2008; Brown and others, 2008). Stream environments are dynamic and climatically extreme, and salmonid fishes are the dominant elements of the native biodiversity (McPhail and Lindsey, 1986; Waples and others, 2008). Salmonids have broad economic and ecologic importance, but a century of intensive water resource development, nonnative fish stocking, and land use has significantly reduced many populations and several taxa are now protected under the Endangered Species Act (Thurow and others, 1997; Trotter, 2008). Because salmonids require relatively pristine, cold water environments and are often isolated in headwater habitats, members of this group may be especially vulnerable to the effects of a warming climate (Keleher and Rahel, 1996; Rieman and others, 2007; Williams and others, 2009). Warming during the 20th century drove a series of environmental trends that have profound implications for many aspects of salmonid habitat, including disturbance regimes such as wildfire, and unfavorable changes to thermal and hydrologic properties of aquatic systems. Warmer air temperatures have been associated with decreased winter snow accumulations, have accelerated snowmelt, and have advanced the timing of peak runoff by several days to weeks across most of western North America (Stewart and others, 2005; Barnett and others, 2008). Less snow and earlier runoff decrease aquifer recharge, make less water available for groundwater inputs to streams, and are contributing to widespread decreases in summer low flows (Stewart and others, 2005; Rood and others, 2008; Luce and Holden 2009). Interannual variability in stream flow is increasing, as is the persistence of multi-year extreme conditions (McCabe and others, 2004; Pagano and Garen 2005). In many areas of western North America, flood risks have increased in association with warmer temperatures during the 20th century (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 2005). Streams where midwinter temperatures are near freezing have proven especially sensitive to increased flooding because of associated transitional hydrological patterns (mixtures of rainfall and snowmelt) and propensity for occasional rain-on-snow events to rapidly melt winter snowpack and generate large floods (Hamlet and Lettenmaier, 2005). Stream temperatures in many areas are increasing (Peterson and Kitchell, 2001; Morrison and others, 2002; Bartholow, 2005; Kaushal and others, 2010), due to both air temperature increases and reduced summer flows that make streams more sensitive to warmer air temperatures (Isaak and others, 2010). In recent decades, wildfires have become more common across much of the western United States during periods of more frequent droughts (Westerling and others, 2006; Hoerling and Eischeid, 2007), and local stream temperature can increase in postfire environments (Gresswell, 1999; Dunham and others, 2007). Fire-related temperature increase within streams is commonly a transient phenomenon, lasting only until riparian vegetation has recovered (Gresswell, 1999); however, ongoing climate change could preclude recovery to higher stature, prefire vegetation types in some areas (McKenzie and others, 2004; van Mantgem and Stephenson, 2007), resulting in a loss of critical riparian shading. Additionally, when wildfires occur in steep mountain topographies, the vegetation that stabilize s soils on hillslopes is often killed and landslides become more prevalent (Gresswell, 1999). Landslides int o stream channels form debris flows composed of sediment slurries and dead trees that can scour channels to bedrock and further exacerbate stream heating, delay recovery of riparian areas, or extirpate fish populations (Gresswell, 1999; May and Gresswell, 2003; Dunham and others, 2007). Changes in stream environments will shift habitat distributions, sometimes unpredictably, in both time and space for many salmonid fishes. Water temperature fundamentally influences aquatic ecosystem health because distribution, reproduction, fitness, and survival of ectothermic organisms are inextricably linked to the thermal regime of the environment. Historically, research has focused on defining lethal thermal limits of salmonids (Eaton and others, 1995; Selong and others, 2001; Todd and others, 2008); however, water temperature is known to be important in biological processes at a variety of spatial scales and levels of biological organization (Rahel and Olden, 2008; McCullough and others, 2009). For instance, trout are affected directly by water temperature through feeding, metabolism, and growth rates, and indirectly by factors such as prey availability and species interactions (Wehrly and others, 2007; Rahel and Olden, 2008). Where cold water temperatures currently limit habitat suitability and distributions of some species (for example, at the highest and most northerly distributional extents; Nakano and others, 1996; Coleman and Fausch, 2007), a warming climate may gradually increase the quality and extent of suitable habitat. Over time, previously constrained populations are expected to expand into these new habitats and increase in number. Some evidence suggests this may already be happening in Alaska, where streams in recently deglaciated areas are being colonized by emigrants from nearby salmon and char populations (Milner and others, 2000). Unfortunately, many of the sensitive salmonid species that are often the focus of western managers are unlikely to benefit from future water temperature increases. Warmer stream temperatures will facilitate invasion by nonnative species that are broadly established in downstream areas into upstream areas where they will compete with native species (Rieman and others, 2006; Rahel and Olden, 2008; Fausch and others, 2009). In other cases, warmer stream temperatures will render thermally suitable habitats unsuitable in downstream areas and effect net losses of habitat because upstream distributions are often constrained by streams that are too small or steep (Hari and others, 2006; Isaak and others, 2010). Both scenarios are realistic for fish species like bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) (Rieman and others, 2006; Rieman and others, 2007), the various subspecies of cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii ) (Williams and others, 2009), Gila trout ( Oncorhynchus gilae gilae ) (Kennedy and others, 2008), and Apache trout ( Oncorhynchus gilae apache ) (Rinne and Minckley, 1985; Carmichael and others, 1993). As native species are increasingly confined to smaller and more isolated habitats by a gradually warming climate, the effects of wildfires (whether related to lethal changes in water quality during a fire, channel debris flows, or chronic postfire warming ) could have greater proportional effects on remaining habitats (for example, Brown and others, 2001; Rieman and others, 2007). If these changes were accompanied by additional hydrologic alterations associated with changes to the magnitude, frequency, duration, timing, and rate of change of discharge patterns (Jager and others, 1999; Henderson and others, 2000), populations may begin to lose some of their historic resilience and become ever more susceptible to local extirpations. As dramatic and extensive as climatic and environmental trends are for salmonid habitats, global climate models (GCMs) project that many of these trends will continue and even accelerate until at least the middle of the 21st century (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007). Current projections suggest mean annual air temperatures will increase by an additional 1–3°C, and early indications are that climate trajectory is at the higher end of this range (Pittock, 2006; Raupach and others, 2007). Although predicted changes vary considerably, even the most conservative estimates suggest a warming rate that will be twice that observed during the 20th century. Projections for the midcentury are most certainly due to the effects of greenhouse gases already emitted or predicted in the short term, uncertainties of the effects of longer-term greenhouse gas emissions, short-term climate cycles, and process errors associated with climate models (Cox and Stephenson, 2007). Projections of changes in total precipitation are less certain than those for air temperatures, but most GCMs project relatively small changes in the Northwest, with the exception of slightly drier summer periods (Mote and others, 2008; Karl and others, 2009). In the Southwest, however, significant decreases (such as 15–30 percent ) are projected during most periods of the year, and this area is one of the few for which Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007) precipitation projections have a high level of certainty (Hoerling and Eischeid, 2007; Karl and others, 2009). Clearly, managers of native salmonids in the wester n United States should consider adjusting management strategies to accommodate a warmer and possibly drier future (Williams and others, 2009). Tools are needed to forecast where important changes may occur and how conservation efforts should be prioritized. In this Open-File Report, we document our initial efforts in this regard for 10 species and subspecies of inland trout and Montana Arctic grayling ( Thymallus arcticus ) across the western United States.

Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nev↗

USGS2018

Effect of climate change on disease spread in wildlife

A growing body of evidence indicates that climate change alone, or acting synergistically with current anthropogenic threats, is affecting the health of wild populations of aquatic and terrestrial wildlife. Measurable by-products of climate change include elevated atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, higher average global temperatures; variations in global precipitation patterns, rising and warming oceans, altered hydrographs of rivers, and increased mid-continental drying during summer. These consequences affect the terrestrial environment through shifts in phenology, vegetation cover, and fire regimes. Warmer ocean temperatures, increased acidification, rise in sea levels, and reduction in sea ice cover are also leading to widespread ecological changes in marine systems. Wildlife populations face a variety of climate-related pressures, such as changes in animal distribution or density, limitation of food resources, and alteration to critical habitats. The increased potential for emergence and resurgence of diseases that are responsive to environmental conditions also has implications for wildlife populations. Shifts in temperature or other climatic factors may directly affect the incidence of disease in wildlife by altering host-pathogen interactions, promoting vector populations or allowing new ranges for vectors, or reducing development times for parasites. A number of examples from both field and laboratory studies have demonstrated a clear link between warming environments and disease spread. Many climate-related environmental changes also influence wildlife health indirectly. For example, increasing temperatures, in combination with shifts in rainfall and humidity, may aggravate current trends for water resource limitation and habitat degradation or destruction and lead to increased crowding of animal populations, thereby promoting transmission opportunities of pathogens within populations or across species. Although it may be difficult to disentangle the influences of other anthropogenic changes from the direct effects of warming, some ecosystems provide especially useful models for studying climate-related disease spread in wildlife. For example, the effects of climate change on parasite dynamics may be easily observed in the Arctic, where environmental changes are occurring rapidly, anthropogenic influences are relatively limited, and biodiversity is generally low. Marine ecosystems are also undergoing rapid rates of change and may be vulnerable to a variety of natural and anthropogenic perturbations. Although many factors affect the health of organisms in ocean environments, temperature has been clearly linked to an increase in disease prevalence among sessile organisms such as corals. In this chapter, we discuss observed and predicted changes to wildlife health resulting from climate change. Our review will not include all aspects of wildlife health, but will instead focus on established or suspected links between climate drivers and disease spread and discuss examples from the current literature. Here, we define disease spread to include: 1) change in geographical or altitudinal distribution of pathogens, parasites, and vectors and the diseases they cause; 2) change in prevalence or severity of disease; and 3) emergence of novel diseases. Additionally, because wildlife species serve as reservoirs for zoonotic diseases that affect both animals and humans, we include select examples of the effect of climate change on the capacity of wildlife to harbor and spread these disease agents.

Book chapter↗

USGS2005

Mercury recycling in the United States in 2000

Reclamation and recycling of mercury from used mercury- containing products and treatment of byproduct mercury from gold mining is vital to the continued, though declining, use of this metal. Mercury is reclaimed from mercury-containing waste by treatment in multistep high-temperature retorts-the mercury is volatized and then condensed for purification and sale. Some mercury-containing waste, however, may be landfilled, and landfilled material represents loss of a recyclable resource and a threat to the environment. Related issues include mercury disposal and waste management, toxicity and human health, and regulation of mercury releases in the environment. End-users of mercury-containing products may face fines and prosecution if these products are improperly recycled or not recycled. Local and State environmental regulations require adherence to the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act and the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act to regulate generation, treatment, and disposal of mercury-containing products. In the United States, several large companies and a number of smaller companies collect these products from a variety of sources and then reclaim and recycle the mercury. Because mercury has not been mined as a principal product in the United States since 1992, mercury reclamation from fabricated products has become the main source of mercury. Principal product mercury and byproduct mercury from mining operations are considered to be primary materials. Mercury may also be obtained as a byproduct from domestic or foreign gold-processing operations. In the early 1990s, U.S. manufacturers used an annual average that ranged from 500 to 600 metric tons of recycled and imported mercury for fabrication of automobile convenience switches, dental amalgam, fluorescent lamps, medical uses and thermometers, and thermostats. The amount now used for fabrication is estimated to be 200 metric tons per year or less. Much of the data on mercury is estimated because it is a low-volume commodity and its production, use, and disposal is difficult to track. The prices and volumes of each category of mercury-containing material may change dramatically from year to year. For example, the average price of mercury was approximately $150 per flask from 2000 until 2003 and then rose sharply to $650 per flask in fall 2004 and approximately $850 per flask in spring 2005. Since 1927, the common unit for measuring and pricing mercury has been the flask in order to conform to the system used at Almaden, Spain (Meyers, 1951). One flask weighs 34.5 kilograms, and 29 flasks of mercury are contained in a metric ton. In the United States, the chlorine-caustic soda industry, which is the leading end-user of elemental mercury, recycles most of its mercury in-plant as home scrap. Annual purchases of replacement mercury by the chlorine-caustic soda industry indicate that some mercury may be lost through evaporation to the environment, put into a landfill as industrial waste, or trapped within pipes in the plant. Impending closure of domestic and foreign mercury-cell chlorine-caustic soda plants and the shift to nonmercury technology for chlorine-caustic soda production could ultimately result in a significant volume of elemental mercury for recycling, sale, or storage. Globally, mercury is widely used in artisanal, or small-scale, gold mining. Most of that mercury is lost to the environment and is not recycled. The recycling rate for mercury was not available owing to insufficient data in 2000, and the efficiency of mercury recycling was estimated to be 62 percent.

Circular↗

USGS2005

Mercury recycling in the United States in 2000

Open-File Report↗

USGS2022

Observed and forecasted changes in land use by polar bears in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, 1985–2040

Monitoring changes in the distribution of large carnivores is important for managing human safety and supporting conservation. Throughout much of their range, polar bears ( Ursus maritimus ) are increasingly using terrestrial habitats in response to Arctic sea ice decline. Their increased presence in coastal areas has implications for bear-human conflict, inter-species interactions, and polar bear health and survival. We examined observed trends in land use over three decades by polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea (SB) and Chukchi Sea (CS) where bears have traditionally spent most of the year on the sea ice. Using data from 408 adult females fitted with satellite radio-collars, we examined trends in the annual proportion of bears coming onshore (hereafter referred to as “percent of bears”) during the summer for ≥21 days, arrival and departure dates, duration spent onshore and relationships with sea ice metrics. We then estimated future land use through 2040 by extrapolating trends and by combining observed relationships between land use and sea ice with projections of future sea ice from an ensemble of earth system models. The observed percent of bears summering onshore and their duration onshore was correlated with the percent of open water that occurred within their population’s range between July and October. As sea ice declined, the percent of bears summering onshore increased from ~5 to 30% in the SB and ~10 to 50% in the CS and duration onshore increased by >30 days to 60–70 days in both populations. Using a range of greenhouse gas emission scenarios and adjustments for faster than forecasted sea ice loss we estimated that 50-62% of SB and 79-88% of CS bears will spend 90–108 and 110–126 days onshore during summer in the SB and CS, respectively, by 2040. Sea ice projections varied little between greenhouse gas emission scenarios prior to 2040 but diverged thereafter. Observed and forecasted increases in polar bear land occupancy puts more bears in proximity to human activities and settlements for longer durations while extending the lack of access to their primary prey. Because human conflict is one of the primary factors affecting the conservation of large carnivores worldwide, mitigation of bear-human interactions on land will be an increasingly important component of polar bear conservation.

Alaska↗