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USGS2014

Ebullitive methane emissions from oxygenated wetland streams

Stream and river carbon dioxide emissions are an important component of the global carbon cycle. Methane emissions from streams could also contribute to regional or global greenhouse gas cycling, but there are relatively few data regarding stream and river methane emissions. Furthermore, the available data do not typically include the ebullitive (bubble-mediated) pathway, instead focusing on emission of dissolved methane by diffusion or convection. Here, we show the importance of ebullitive methane emissions from small streams in the regional greenhouse gas balance of a lake and wetland-dominated landscape in temperate North America and identify the origin of the methane emitted from these well-oxygenated streams. Stream methane flux densities from this landscape tended to exceed those of nearby wetland diffusive fluxes as well as average global wetland ebullitive fluxes. Total stream ebullitive methane flux at the regional scale (103 Mg C yr −1 ; over 6400 km 2 ) was of the same magnitude as diffusive methane flux previously documented at the same scale. Organic-rich stream sediments had the highest rates of bubble release and higher enrichment of methane in bubbles, but glacial sand sediments also exhibited high bubble emissions relative to other studied environments. Our results from a database of groundwater chemistry support the hypothesis that methane in bubbles is produced in anoxic near-stream sediment porewaters, and not in deeper, oxygenated groundwaters. Methane interacts with other key elemental cycles such as nitrogen, oxygen, and sulfur, which has implications for ecosystem changes such as drought and increased nutrient loading. Our results support the contention that streams, particularly those draining wetland landscapes of the northern hemisphere, are an important component of the global methane cycle.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2014

Please don't misuse the museum: 'declines' may be statistical

Detecting declines in populations at broad spatial scales takes enormous effort, and long-term data are often more sparse than is desired for estimating trends, identifying drivers for population changes, framing conservation decisions or taking management actions. Museum records and historic data can be available at large scales across multiple decades, and are therefore an attractive source of information on the comparative status of populations. However, changes in populations may be real (e.g., in response to environmental covariates) or resulting from variation in our ability to observe the true population response (also possibly related to environmental covariates). This is a (statistical) nuisance in understanding the true status of a population. Evaluating statistical hypotheses alongside more interesting ecological ones is important in the appropriate use of museum data. Two statistical considerations are generally applicable to use of museum records: first without initial random sampling, comparison with contemporary results cannot provide inference to the entire range of a species, and second the availability of only some individuals in a population may respond to environmental changes. Changes in the availability of individuals may reduce the proportion of the population that is present and able to be counted on a given survey event, resulting in an apparent decline even when population size is stable.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2014

Forest Ecosystem respiration estimated from eddy covariance and chamber measurements under high turbulence and substantial tree mortality from bark beetles

Eddy covariance nighttime fluxes are uncertain due to potential measurement biases. Many studies report eddy covariance nighttime flux lower than flux from extrapolated chamber measurements, despite corrections for low turbulence. We compared eddy covariance and chamber estimates of ecosystem respiration at the GLEES Ameriflux site over seven growing seasons under high turbulence (summer night mean friction velocity (u*) = 0.7 m s −1 ), during which bark beetles killed or infested 85% of the aboveground respiring biomass. Chamber-based estimates of ecosystem respiration during the growth season, developed from foliage, wood and soil CO 2 efflux measurements, declined 35% after 85% of the forest basal area had been killed or impaired by bark beetles (from 7.1 ±0.22 μmol m −2 s −1 in 2005 to 4.6 ±0.16 μmol m −2 s −1 in 2011). Soil efflux remained at ~3.3 μmol m −2 s −1 throughout the mortality, while the loss of live wood and foliage and their respiration drove the decline of the chamber estimate. Eddy covariance estimates of fluxes at night remained constant over the same period, ~3.0 μmol m −2 s −1 for both 2005 (intact forest) and 2011 (85% basal area killed or impaired). Eddy covariance fluxes were lower than chamber estimates of ecosystem respiration (60% lower in 2005, and 32% in 2011), but the mean night estimates from the two techniques were correlated within a year (r 2 from 0.18-0.60). The difference between the two techniques was not the result of inadequate turbulence, because the results were robust to a u* filter of > 0.7 m s −1 . The decline in the average seasonal difference between the two techniques was strongly correlated with overstory leaf area (r 2 =0.92). The discrepancy between methods of respiration estimation should be resolved to have confidence in ecosystem carbon flux estimates.

Wyoming↗

USGS2014

Polygonal tundra geomorphological change in response to warming alters future CO2 and CH4 flux on the Barrow Peninsula

The landscape of the Barrow Peninsula in northern Alaska is thought to have formed over centuries to millennia, and is now dominated by ice-wedge polygonal tundra that spans drained thaw-lake basins and interstitial tundra. In nearby tundra regions, studies have identified a rapid increase in thermokarst formation (i.e., pits) over recent decades in response to climate warming, facilitating changes in polygonal tundra geomorphology. We assessed the future impact of 100 years of tundra geomorphic change on peak growing season carbon exchange in response to: (i) landscape succession associated with the thaw-lake cycle; and (ii) low, moderate, and extreme scenarios of thermokarst pit formation (10%, 30%, and 50%) reported for Alaskan arctic tundra sites. We developed a 30 × 30 m resolution tundra geomorphology map (overall accuracy:75%; Kappa:0.69) for our ~1800 km² study area composed of ten classes; drained slope, high center polygon, flat-center polygon, low center polygon, coalescent low center polygon, polygon trough, meadow, ponds, rivers, and lakes, to determine their spatial distribution across the Barrow Peninsula. Land-atmosphere CO 2 and CH 4 flux data were collected for the summers of 2006–2010 at eighty-two sites near Barrow, across the mapped classes. The developed geomorphic map was used for the regional assessment of carbon flux. Results indicate (i) at present during peak growing season on the Barrow Peninsula, CO 2 uptake occurs at -902.3 10 6 gC-CO 2 day −1 (uncertainty using 95% CI is between −438.3 and −1366 10 6 gC-CO 2 day −1 ) and CH 4 flux at 28.9 10 6 gC-CH 4 day −1 (uncertainty using 95% CI is between 12.9 and 44.9 10 6 gC-CH 4 day −1 ), (ii) one century of future landscape change associated with the thaw-lake cycle only slightly alter CO 2 and CH 4 exchange, while (iii) moderate increases in thermokarst pits would strengthen both CO 2 uptake (−166.9 10 6 gC-CO 2 day −1 ) and CH 4 flux (2.8 10 6 gC-CH 4 day −1 ) with geomorphic change from low to high center polygons, cumulatively resulting in an estimated negative feedback to warming during peak growing season.

Alaska↗

USGS2014

Pronounced chemical response of Subarctic lakes to climate-driven losses in surface area

Losses in lake area have been observed for several Arctic and Subarctic regions in recent decades, with unknown consequences for lake ecosystems. These reductions are primarily attributed to two climate-sensitive mechanisms, both of which may also cause changes in water chemistry: (i) increased imbalance of evaporation relative to inflow, whereby increased evaporation and decreased inflow act to concentrate solutes into smaller volumes; and (ii) accelerated permafrost degradation, which enhances sublacustrine drainage while simultaneously leaching previously frozen solutes into lakes. We documented changes in nutrients [total nitrogen (TN), total phosphorus (TP)] and ions (calcium, chloride, magnesium, sodium) over a 25 year interval in shrinking, stable, and expanding Subarctic lakes of the Yukon Flats, Alaska. Concentrations of all six solutes increased in shrinking lakes from 1985–1989 to 2010–2012, while simultaneously undergoing little change in stable or expanding lakes. This created a present-day pattern, much weaker or absent in the 1980s, in which shrinking lakes had higher solute concentrations than their stable or expanding counterparts. An imbalanced evaporation-to-inflow ratio (E/I) was the most likely mechanism behind such changes; all four ions, which behave semiconservatively and are prone to evapoconcentration, increased in shrinking lakes and, along with TN and TP, were positively related to isotopically derived E/I estimates. Moreover, the most conservative ion, chloride, increased >500% in shrinking lakes. Conversely, only TP concentration was related to probability of permafrost presence, being highest at intermediate probabilities. Overall, the substantial increases of nutrients (TN >200%, TP >100%) and ions (>100%) may shift shrinking lakes towards overly eutrophic or saline states, with potentially severe consequences for ecosystems of northern lakes.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Temporal patterns in adult salmon migration timing across southeast Alaska

Pacific salmon migration timing can drive population productivity, ecosystem dynamics, and human harvest. Nevertheless, little is known about long-term variation in salmon migration timing for multiple species across broad regions. We used long-term data for five Pacific salmon species throughout rapidly warming southeast Alaska to describe long-term changes in salmon migration timing, interannual phenological synchrony, relationships between climatic variation and migratory timing, and to test whether long-term changes in migration timing are related to glaciation in headwater streams. Temporal changes in the median date of salmon migration timing varied widely across species. Most sockeye populations are migrating later over time (11 of 14), but pink, chum, and especially coho populations are migrating earlier than they did historically (16 of 19 combined). Temporal trends in duration and interannual variation in migration timing were highly variable across species and populations. The greatest temporal shifts in the median date of migration timing were correlated with decreases in the duration of migration timing, suggestive of a loss of phenotypic variation due to natural selection. Pairwise interannual correlations in migration timing varied widely but were generally positive, providing evidence for weak region-wide phenological synchrony. This synchrony is likely a function of climatic variation, as interannual variation in migration timing was related to climatic phenomenon operating at large- (Pacific decadal oscillation), moderate- (sea surface temperature), and local-scales (precipitation). Surprisingly, the presence or the absence of glaciers within a watershed was unrelated to long-term shifts in phenology. Overall, there was extensive heterogeneity in long-term patterns of migration timing throughout this climatically and geographically complex region, highlighting that future climatic change will likely have widely divergent impacts on salmon migration timing. Although salmon phenological diversity will complicate future predictions of migration timing, this variation likely acts as a major contributor to population and ecosystem resiliency in southeast Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Seasonal weather patterns drive population vital rates and persistence in a stream fish

Climate change affects seasonal weather patterns, but little is known about the relative importance of seasonal weather patterns on animal population vital rates. Even when such information exists, data are typically only available from intensive fieldwork (e.g., mark–recapture studies) at a limited spatial extent. Here, we investigated effects of seasonal air temperature and precipitation (fall, winter, and spring) on survival and recruitment of brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) at a broad spatial scale using a novel stage‐structured population model. The data were a 15‐year record of brook trout abundance from 72 sites distributed across a 170‐km‐long mountain range in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Population vital rates responded differently to weather and site‐specific conditions. Specifically, young‐of‐year survival was most strongly affected by spring temperature, adult survival by elevation and per‐capita recruitment by winter precipitation. Low fall precipitation and high winter precipitation, the latter of which is predicted to increase under climate change for the study region, had the strongest negative effects on trout populations. Simulations show that trout abundance could be greatly reduced under constant high winter precipitation, consistent with the expected effects of gravel‐scouring flows on eggs and newly hatched individuals. However, high‐elevation sites would be less vulnerable to local extinction because they supported higher adult survival. Furthermore, the majority of brook trout populations are projected to persist if high winter precipitation occurs only intermittently (≤3 of 5 years) due to density‐dependent recruitment. Variable drivers of vital rates should be commonly found in animal populations characterized by ontogenetic changes in habitat, and such stage‐structured effects may increase population persistence to changing climate by not affecting all life stages simultaneously. Yet, our results also demonstrate that weather patterns during seemingly less consequential seasons (e.g., winter precipitation) can have major impacts on animal population dynamics.

Virginia↗

USGS2015

Genetic diversity is related to climatic variation and vulnerability in threatened bull trout

Understanding how climatic variation influences ecological and evolutionary processes is crucial for informed conservation decision-making. Nevertheless, few studies have measured how climatic variation influences genetic diversity within populations or how genetic diversity is distributed across space relative to future climatic stress. Here, we tested whether patterns of genetic diversity (allelic richness) were related to climatic variation and habitat features in 130 bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ) populations from 24 watersheds (i.e., ~4–7th order river subbasins) across the Columbia River Basin, USA. We then determined whether bull trout genetic diversity was related to climate vulnerability at the watershed scale, which we quantified on the basis of exposure to future climatic conditions (projected scenarios for the 2040s) and existing habitat complexity. We found a strong gradient in genetic diversity in bull trout populations across the Columbia River Basin, where populations located in the most upstream headwater areas had the greatest genetic diversity. After accounting for spatial patterns with linear mixed models, allelic richness in bull trout populations was positively related to habitat patch size and complexity, and negatively related to maximum summer temperature and the frequency of winter flooding. These relationships strongly suggest that climatic variation influences evolutionary processes in this threatened species and that genetic diversity will likely decrease due to future climate change. Vulnerability at a watershed scale was negatively correlated with average genetic diversity ( r = −0.77; P < 0.001); watersheds containing populations with lower average genetic diversity generally had the lowest habitat complexity, warmest stream temperatures, and greatest frequency of winter flooding. Together, these findings have important conservation implications for bull trout and other imperiled species. Genetic diversity is already depressed where climatic vulnerability is highest; it will likely erode further in the very places where diversity may be most needed for future persistence.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2015

Urgent need for warming experiments in tropical forests

Although tropical forests account for only a fraction of the planet's terrestrial surface, they exchange more carbon dioxide with the atmosphere than any other biome on Earth, and thus play a disproportionate role in the global climate. In the next 20 years, the tropics will experience unprecedented warming, yet there is exceedingly high uncertainty about their potential responses to this imminent climatic change. Here, we prioritize research approaches given both funding and logistical constraints in order to resolve major uncertainties about how tropical forests function and also to improve predictive capacity of earth system models. We investigate overall model uncertainty of tropical latitudes and explore the scientific benefits and inevitable trade-offs inherent in large-scale manipulative field experiments. With a Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 analysis, we found that model variability in projected net ecosystem production was nearly 3 times greater in the tropics than for any other latitude. Through a review of the most current literature, we concluded that manipulative warming experiments are vital to accurately predict future tropical forest carbon balance, and we further recommend the establishment of a network of comparable studies spanning gradients of precipitation, edaphic qualities, plant types, and/or land use change. We provide arguments for long-term, single-factor warming experiments that incorporate warming of the most biogeochemically active ecosystem components (i.e. leaves, roots, soil microbes). Hypothesis testing of underlying mechanisms should be a priority, along with improving model parameterization and constraints. No single tropical forest is representative of all tropical forests; therefore logistical feasibility should be the most important consideration for locating large-scale manipulative experiments. Above all, we advocate for multi-faceted research programs, and we offer arguments for what we consider the most powerful and urgent way forward in order to improve our understanding of tropical forest responses to climate change.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2015

A pan-Arctic synthesis of CH 4 and CO 2 production from anoxic soil incubations

Permafrost thaw can alter the soil environment through changes in soil moisture, frequently resulting in soil saturation, a shift to anaerobic decomposition, and changes in the plant community. These changes, along with thawing of previously frozen organic material, can alter the form and magnitude of greenhouse gas production from permafrost ecosystems. We synthesized existing methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) production measurements from anaerobic incubations of boreal and tundra soils from the geographic permafrost region to evaluate large-scale controls of anaerobic CO 2 and CH 4 production and compare the relative importance of landscape-level factors (e.g., vegetation type and landscape position), soil properties (e.g., pH, depth, and soil type), and soil environmental conditions (e.g., temperature and relative water table position). We found fivefold higher maximum CH 4 production per gram soil carbon from organic soils than mineral soils. Maximum CH 4 production from soils in the active layer (ground that thaws and refreezes annually) was nearly four times that of permafrost per gram soil carbon, and CH 4 production per gram soil carbon was two times greater from sites without permafrost than sites with permafrost. Maximum CH 4 and median anaerobic CO 2 production decreased with depth, while CO 2 :CH 4 production increased with depth. Maximum CH 4 production was highest in soils with herbaceous vegetation and soils that were either consistently or periodically inundated. This synthesis identifies the need to consider biome, landscape position, and vascular/moss vegetation types when modeling CH 4 production in permafrost ecosystems and suggests the need for longer-term anaerobic incubations to fully capture CH 4 dynamics. Our results demonstrate that as climate warms in arctic and boreal regions, rates of anaerobic CO 2 and CH 4 production will increase, not only as a result of increased temperature, but also from shifts in vegetation and increased ground saturation that will accompany permafrost thaw.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2015

Estuarine fish communities respond to climate variability over both river and ocean basins

Estuaries are dynamic environments at the land–sea interface that are strongly affected by interannual climate variability. Ocean–atmosphere processes propagate into estuaries from the sea, and atmospheric processes over land propagate into estuaries from watersheds. We examined the effects of these two separate climate-driven processes on pelagic and demersal fish community structure along the salinity gradient in the San Francisco Estuary, California, USA. A 33-year data set (1980–2012) on pelagic and demersal fishes spanning the freshwater to marine regions of the estuary suggested the existence of five estuarine salinity fish guilds: limnetic (salinity = 0–1), oligohaline (salinity = 1–12), mesohaline (salinity = 6–19), polyhaline (salinity = 19–28), and euhaline (salinity = 29–32). Climatic effects propagating from the adjacent Pacific Ocean, indexed by the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the euhaline and polyhaline guilds. Climatic effects propagating over land, indexed as freshwater outflow from the watershed (OUT), affected demersal and pelagic fish community structure in the oligohaline, mesohaline, polyhaline, and euhaline guilds. The effects of OUT propagated further down the estuary salinity gradient than the effects of NPGO that propagated up the estuary salinity gradient, exemplifying the role of variable freshwater outflow as an important driver of biotic communities in river-dominated estuaries. These results illustrate how unique sources of climate variability interact to drive biotic communities and, therefore, that climate change is likely to be an important driver in shaping the future trajectory of biotic communities in estuaries and other transitional habitats.

California↗

USGS2015

Will a warmer and wetter future cause extinction of native Hawaiian forest birds?

Isolation of the Hawaiian archipelago produced a highly endemic and unique avifauna. Avian malaria ( Plasmodium relictum ), an introduced mosquito-borne pathogen, is a primary cause of extinctions and declines of these endemic honeycreepers. Our research assesses how global climate change will affect future malaria risk and native bird populations. We used an epidemiological model to evaluate future bird-mosquito-malaria dynamics in response to alternative climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Climate changes during the second half of the century accelerate malaria transmission and cause a dramatic decline in bird abundance. Different temperature and precipitation patterns produce divergent trajectories where native birds persist with low malaria infection under a warmer and dryer projection (RCP4.5), but suffer high malaria infection and severe reductions under hot and dry (RCP8.5) or warm and wet (A1B) futures. We conclude that future global climate change will cause significant decreases in the abundance and diversity of remaining Hawaiian bird communities. Because these effects appear unlikely before mid-century, natural resource managers have time to implement conservation strategies to protect this unique avifauna from further decimation. Similar climatic drivers for avian and human malaria suggest that mitigation strategies for Hawai'i have broad application to human health.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2015

Desert grassland responses to climate and soil moisture suggest divergent vulnerabilities across the southwestern United States

Climate change predictions include warming and drying trends, which are expected to be particularly pronounced in the southwestern United States. In this region, grassland dynamics are tightly linked to available moisture, yet it has proven difficult to resolve what aspects of climate drive vegetation change. In part, this is because it is unclear how heterogeneity in soils affects plant responses to climate. Here, we combine climate and soil properties with a mechanistic soil water model to explain temporal fluctuations in perennial grass cover, quantify where and the degree to which incorporating soil water dynamics enhances our ability to understand temporal patterns, and explore the potential consequences of climate change by assessing future trajectories of important climate and soil water variables. Our analyses focused on long-term (20–56 years) perennial grass dynamics across the Colorado Plateau, Sonoran, and Chihuahuan Desert regions. Our results suggest that climate variability has negative effects on grass cover, and that precipitation subsidies that extend growing seasons are beneficial. Soil water metrics, including the number of dry days and availability of water from deeper (>30 cm) soil layers, explained additional grass cover variability. While individual climate variables were ranked as more important in explaining grass cover, collectively soil water accounted for 40–60% of the total explained variance. Soil water conditions were more useful for understanding the responses of C 3 than C 4 grass species. Projections of water balance variables under climate change indicate that conditions that currently support perennial grasses will be less common in the future, and these altered conditions will be more pronounced in the Chihuahuan Desert and Colorado Plateau. We conclude that incorporating multiple aspects of climate and accounting for soil variability can improve our ability to understand patterns, identify areas of vulnerability, and predict the future of desert grasslands.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2015

Projected carbon stocks in the conterminous USA with land use and variable fire regimes

The dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) MC2 was run over the conterminous USA at 30 arc sec (~800 m) to simulate the impacts of nine climate futures generated by 3GCMs (CSIRO, MIROC and CGCM3) using 3 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1) in the context of the LandCarbon national carbon sequestration assessment. It first simulated potential vegetation dynamics from coast to coast assuming no human impacts and naturally occurring wildfires. A moderate effect of increased atmospheric CO 2 on water use efficiency and growth enhanced carbon sequestration but did not greatly influence woody encroachment. The wildfires maintained prairie‐forest ecotones in the Great Plains. With simulated fire suppression, the number and impacts of wildfires was reduced as only catastrophic fires were allowed to escape. This greatly increased the expansion of forests and woodlands across the western USA and some of the ecotones disappeared. However, when fires did occur, their impacts (both extent and biomass consumed) were very large. We also evaluated the relative influence of human land use including forest and crop harvest by running the DGVM with land use (and fire suppression) and simple land management rules. From 2041 through 2060, carbon stocks (live biomass, soil and dead biomass) of US terrestrial ecosystems varied between 155 and 162 Pg C across the three emission scenarios when potential natural vegetation was simulated. With land use, periodic harvest of croplands and timberlands as well as the prevention of woody expansion across the West reduced carbon stocks to a range of 122–126 Pg C, while effective fire suppression reduced fire emissions by about 50%. Despite the simplicity of our approach, the differences between the size of the carbon stocks confirm other reports of the importance of land use on the carbon cycle over climate change.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2015

Beyond just sea-level rise: Considering macroclimatic drivers within coastal wetland vulnerability assessments to climate change

Due to their position at the land-sea interface, coastal wetlands are vulnerable to many aspects of climate change. However, climate change vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands generally focus solely on sea-level rise without considering the effects of other facets of climate change. Across the globe and in all ecosystems, macroclimatic drivers (e.g., temperature and rainfall regimes) greatly influence ecosystem structure and function. Macroclimatic drivers have been the focus of climate-change related threat evaluations for terrestrial ecosystems, but largely ignored for coastal wetlands. In some coastal wetlands, changing macroclimatic conditions are expected to result in foundation plant species replacement, which would affect the supply of certain ecosystem goods and services and could affect ecosystem resilience. As examples, we highlight several ecological transition zones where small changes in macroclimatic conditions would result in comparatively large changes in coastal wetland ecosystem structure and function. Our intent in this communication is not to minimize the importance of sea-level rise. Rather, our overarching aim is to illustrate the need to also consider macroclimatic drivers within vulnerability assessments for coastal wetlands.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2016

A dynamic leaf gas-exchange strategy is conserved in woody plants under changing ambient CO 2 : evidence from carbon isotope discrimination in paleo and CO 2 enrichment studies

Rising atmospheric [CO 2 ], c a , is expected to affect stomatal regulation of leaf gas-exchange of woody plants, thus influencing energy fluxes as well as carbon (C), water, and nutrient cycling of forests. Researchers have proposed various strategies for stomatal regulation of leaf gas-exchange that include maintaining a constant leaf internal [CO 2 ], c i , a constant drawdown in CO 2 ( c a − c i ), and a constant c i / c a . These strategies can result in drastically different consequences for leaf gas-exchange. The accuracy of Earth systems models depends in part on assumptions about generalizable patterns in leaf gas-exchange responses to varying c a . The concept of optimal stomatal behavior, exemplified by woody plants shifting along a continuum of these strategies, provides a unifying framework for understanding leaf gas-exchange responses to c a . To assess leaf gas-exchange regulation strategies, we analyzed patterns in c i inferred from studies reporting C stable isotope ratios (δ 13 C) or photosynthetic discrimination (∆) in woody angiosperms and gymnosperms that grew across a range of c a spanning at least 100 ppm. Our results suggest that much of the c a -induced changes in c i / c a occurred across c a spanning 200 to 400 ppm. These patterns imply that c a − c i will eventually approach a constant level at high c a because assimilation rates will reach a maximum and stomatal conductance of each species should be constrained to some minimum level. These analyses are not consistent with canalization toward any single strategy, particularly maintaining a constant c i . Rather, the results are consistent with the existence of a broadly conserved pattern of stomatal optimization in woody angiosperms and gymnosperms. This results in trees being profligate water users at low c a , when additional water loss is small for each unit of C gain, and increasingly water-conservative at high c a , when photosystems are saturated and water loss is large for each unit C gain.

Global Change Biology↗

USGS2016

Thermokarst rates intensify due to climate change and forest fragmentation in an Alaskan boreal forest lowland

Lowland boreal forest ecosystems in Alaska are dominated by wetlands comprised of a complex mosaic of fens, collapse-scar bogs, low shrub/scrub, and forests growing on elevated ice-rich permafrost soils. Thermokarst has affected the lowlands of the Tanana Flats in central Alaska for centuries, as thawing permafrost collapses forests that transition to wetlands. Located within the discontinuous permafrost zone, this region has significantly warmed over the past half-century, and much of these carbon-rich permafrost soils are now within ~0.5 °C of thawing. Increased permafrost thaw in lowland boreal forests in response to warming may have consequences for the climate system. This study evaluates the trajectories and potential drivers of 60 years of forest change in a landscape subjected to permafrost thaw in unburned dominant forest types (paper birch and black spruce) associated with location on elevated permafrost plateau and across multiple time periods (1949, 1978, 1986, 1998, and 2009) using historical and contemporary aerial and satellite images for change detection. We developed (i) a deterministic statistical model to evaluate the potential climatic controls on forest change using gradient boosting and regression tree analysis, and (ii) a 30 × 30 m land cover map of the Tanana Flats to estimate the potential landscape-level losses of forest area due to thermokarst from 1949 to 2009. Over the 60-year period, we observed a nonlinear loss of birch forests and a relatively continuous gain of spruce forest associated with thermokarst and forest succession, while gradient boosting/regression tree models identify precipitation and forest fragmentation as the primary factors controlling birch and spruce forest change, respectively. Between 1950 and 2009, landscape-level analysis estimates a transition of ~15 km² or ~7% of birch forests to wetlands, where the greatest change followed warm periods. This work highlights that the vulnerability and resilience of lowland ice-rich permafrost ecosystems to climate changes depend on forest type.

Alaska↗

USGS2016

Changes in seasonal climate outpace compensatory density-dependence in eastern brook trout

Understanding how multiple extrinsic (density-independent) factors and intrinsic (density-dependent) mechanisms influence population dynamics has become increasingly urgent in the face of rapidly changing climates. It is particularly unclear how multiple extrinsic factors with contrasting effects among seasons are related to declines in population numbers and changes in mean body size and whether there is a strong role for density-dependence. The primary goal of this study was to identify the roles of seasonal variation in climate driven environmental direct effects (mean stream flow and temperature) versus density-dependence on population size and mean body size in eastern brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis). We use data from a 10-year capture-mark-recapture study of eastern brook trout in four streams in Western Massachusetts, USA to parameterize a discrete-time population projection model. The model integrates matrix modeling techniques used to characterize discrete population structures (age, habitat type and season) with integral projection models (IPMs) that characterize demographic rates as continuous functions of organismal traits (in this case body size). Using both stochastic and deterministic analyses we show that decreases in population size are due to changes in stream flow and temperature and that these changes are larger than what can be compensated for through density-dependent responses. We also show that the declines are due mostly to increasing mean stream temperatures decreasing the survival of the youngest age class. In contrast, increases in mean body size over the same period are the result of indirect changes in density with a lesser direct role of climate-driven environmental change.

Massachusetts↗