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At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
USGS2015

Differentiating induced and natural seismicity using space-time-magnitude statistics applied to the Coso Geothermal field

A remarkable characteristic of earthquakes is their clustering in time and space, displaying their self-similarity. It remains to be tested if natural and induced earthquakes share the same behavior. We study natural and induced earthquakes comparatively in the same tectonic setting at the Coso Geothermal Field. Covering the preproduction and coproduction periods from 1981 to 2013, we analyze interevent times, spatial dimension, and frequency-size distributions for natural and induced earthquakes. Individually, these distributions are statistically indistinguishable. Determining the distribution of nearest neighbor distances in a combined space-time-magnitude metric, lets us identify clear differences between both kinds of seismicity. Compared to natural earthquakes, induced earthquakes feature a larger population of background seismicity and nearest neighbors at large magnitude rescaled times and small magnitude rescaled distances. Local stress perturbations induced by field operations appear to be strong enough to drive local faults through several seismic cycles and reactivate them after time periods on the order of a year.

California↗
USGS2015

Estimating rates of debris flow entrainment from ground vibrations

Debris flows generate seismic waves as they travel downslope and can become more dangerous as they entrain sediment along their path. We present field observations that show a systematic relation between the magnitude of seismic waves and the amount of erodible sediment beneath the flow. Specifically, we observe that a debris flow traveling along a channel filled initially with sediment 0.34m thick generates about 2 orders of magnitude less spectral power than a similar-sized flow over the same channel without sediment fill.We adapt amodel fromfluvial seismology to explain this observation and then invert it to estimate the level of bed sediment (and rate of entrainment) beneath a passing series of surges. Our estimates compare favorably with previous direct measurements of entrainment rates at the site, suggesting the approach may be a new indirect way to obtain rare field constraints needed to test models of debris flow entrainment.

Colorado↗
USGS2015

On the lognormality of historical magnetic-storm intensity statistics: Implications for extreme-event probabilities

An examination is made of the hypothesis that the statistics of magnetic storm maximum intensities are the realization of a lognormal stochastic process. Weighted least squares and maximum likelihood methods are used to fit lognormal functions to − D s t storm time maxima for years 1957–2012; bootstrap analysis is used to established confidence limits on forecasts. Both methods provide fits that are reasonably consistent with the data; both methods also provide fits that are superior to those that can be made with a power‐law function. In general, the maximum likelihood method provides forecasts having tighter confidence intervals than those provided by weighted least squares. From extrapolation of maximum likelihood fits: a magnetic storm with intensity exceeding that of the 1859 Carrington event, − D s t ≥ 850 nT, occurs about 1.13 times per century and a wide 95% confidence interval of [0.42, 2.41] times per century; a 100 year magnetic storm is identified as having a − D s t ≥ 880 nT (greater than Carrington) but a wide 95% confidence interval of [490, 1187] nT.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2015

The influence of coral reefs and climate change on wave-driven flooding of tropical coastlines

A numerical model, XBeach, calibrated and validated on field data collected at Roi-Namur Island on Kwajalein Atoll in the Republic of Marshall Islands, was used to examine the effects of different coral reef characteristics on potential coastal hazards caused by wave-driven flooding and how these effects may be altered by projected climate change. The results presented herein suggest that coasts fronted by relatively narrow reefs with steep fore reef slopes (~1:10 and steeper) and deeper, smoother reef flats are expected to experience the highest wave runup. Wave runup increases for higher water levels (sea level rise), higher waves, and lower bed roughness (coral degradation), which are all expected effects of climate change. Rising sea levels and climate change will therefore have a significant negative impact on the ability of coral reefs to mitigate the effects of coastal hazards in the future.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2015

Linking magma transport structures at Kīlauea volcano

Identifying magma pathways is important for understanding and interpreting volcanic signals. At Kīlauea volcano, seismicity illuminates subsurface plumbing, but the broad spectrum of seismic phenomena hampers event identification. Discrete, long-period events (LPs) dominate the shallow (5-10 km) plumbing, and deep (40+ km) tremor has been observed offshore. However, our inability to routinely identify these events limits their utility in tracking ascending magma. Using envelope cross-correlation, we systematically catalog non-earthquake seismicity between 2008-2014. We find the LPs and deep tremor are spatially distinct, separated by the 15-25 km deep, horizontal mantle fault zone (MFZ). Our search corroborates previous observations, but we find broader-band (0.5-20 Hz) tremor comprising collocated earthquakes and reinterpret the deep tremor as earthquake swarms in a volume surrounding and responding to magma intruding from the mantle plume beneath the MFZ. We propose the overlying MFZ promotes lateral magma transport, linking this deep intrusion with Kīlauea’s shallow magma plumbing.

Hawaii↗
USGS2015

Rising methane emissions from northern wetlands associated with sea ice decline

The Arctic is rapidly transitioning toward a seasonal sea ice-free state, perhaps one of the most apparent examples of climate change in the world. This dramatic change has numerous consequences, including a large increase in air temperatures, which in turn may affect terrestrial methane emissions. Nonetheless, terrestrial and marine environments are seldom jointly analyzed. By comparing satellite observations of Arctic sea ice concentrations to methane emissions simulated by three process-based biogeochemical models, this study shows that rising wetland methane emissions are associated with sea ice retreat. Our analyses indicate that simulated high-latitude emissions for 2005–2010 were, on average, 1.7 Tg CH 4  yr −1 higher compared to 1981–1990 due to a sea ice-induced, autumn-focused, warming. Since these results suggest a continued rise in methane emissions with future sea ice decline, observation programs need to include measurements during the autumn to further investigate the impact of this spatial connection on terrestrial methane emissions.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2015

Slip-pulse rupture behavior on a 2 meter granite fault

We describe observations of dynamic rupture events that spontaneously arise on meter-scale laboratory earthquake experiments. While low-frequency slip of the granite sample occurs in a relatively uniform and crack-like manner, instruments capable of detecting high frequency motions show that some parts of the fault slip abruptly (velocity >100 mm∙s-1, acceleration >20 km∙s-2) while the majority of the fault slips more slowly. Abruptly slipping regions propagate along the fault at nearly the shear wave speed. We propose that the dramatic reduction in frictional strength implied by this pulse-like rupture behavior has a common mechanism to the weakening reported in high velocity friction experiments performed on rotary machines. The slip pulses can also be identified as migrating sources of high frequency seismic waves. As observations from large earthquakes show similar propagating high frequency sources, the pulses described here may have relevance to the mechanics of larger earthquakes.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2015

Delayed dynamic triggering of deep tremor along the Parkfield-Cholame section of the San Andreas Fault following the 2014 M6.0 South Napa earthquake

Large, distant earthquakes are known to trigger deep tectonic tremor along the San Andreas Fault and in subduction zones. However, there are relatively few observations of triggering from regional distance earthquakes. Here we show that a small tremor episode about 12–18 km NW of Parkfield was triggered during and immediately following the passage of surface waves from the 2014 M w 6.0 South Napa main shock. More notably, a major tremor episode followed, beginning about 12 h later, and centered SE of Parkfield near Cholame. This major episode is one of the largest seen over the past several years, containing intense activity for ~3 days and taking more than 3 weeks to return to background levels. This episode showed systematic along-strike migration at ~5 km/d, suggesting that it was driven by a slow-slip event. Our results suggest that moderate-size earthquakes are capable of triggering major tremor and deep slow slip at regional distances.

California↗
USGS2015

The Iquique earthquake sequence of April 2014: Bayesian modeling accounting for prediction uncertainty

The subduction zone in northern Chile is a well-identified seismic gap that last ruptured in 1877. On 1 April 2014, this region was struck by a large earthquake following a two week long series of foreshocks. This study combines a wide range of observations, including geodetic, tsunami, and seismic data, to produce a reliable kinematic slip model of the M w =8.1 main shock and a static slip model of the M w =7.7 aftershock. We use a novel Bayesian modeling approach that accounts for uncertainty in the Green's functions, both static and dynamic, while avoiding nonphysical regularization. The results reveal a sharp slip zone, more compact than previously thought, located downdip of the foreshock sequence and updip of high-frequency sources inferred by back-projection analysis. Both the main shock and the M w =7.7 aftershock did not rupture to the trench and left most of the seismic gap unbroken, leaving the possibility of a future large earthquake in the region.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2015

Paleoreconstruction of organic carbon inputs to an oxbow lake in the Mississippi River watershed: Effects of dam construction and land use change on regional inputs

We use a dated sediment core from Lake Whittington (USA) in the lower Mississippi River to reconstruct linkages in the carbon cycling and fluvial sediment dynamics over the past 80 years. Organic carbon (OC) sources were characterized using bulk (δ 13 C, ramped pyrolysis-oxidation (PyrOx) 14 C, δ 15 N, and TN:OC ratios) and compound-specific (lignin phenols and fatty acids, including δ 13 C and 14 C of the fatty acids) analyses. Damming of the Missouri River in the 1950s, other hydrological modifications to the river, and soil conservation measures resulted in reduced net OC export, in spite of increasing OC concentrations. Decreasing δ 13 C values coincided with increases in δ 15 N, TN:OC ratios, long-chain fatty acids, and lignin-phenol concentrations, suggesting increased inputs of soil-derived OC dominated by C 3 vegetation, mainly resulting from changes in farming practices and crop distribution. However, ramped PyrOx 14 C showed no discernible differences downcore in thermochemical stability, indicating a limited impact on soil OC turnover.

Mississippi↗
USGS2015

Hydrothermal response to a volcano-tectonic earthquake swarm, Lassen, California

The increasing capability of seismic, geodetic, and hydrothermal observation networks allows recognition of volcanic unrest that could previously have gone undetected, creating an imperative to diagnose and interpret unrest episodes. A November 2014 earthquake swarm near Lassen Volcanic National Park, California, which included the largest earthquake in the area in more than 60 years, was accompanied by a rarely observed outburst of hydrothermal fluids. Although the earthquake swarm likely reflects upward migration of endogenous H 2 O-CO 2 fluids in the source region, there is no evidence that such fluids emerged at the surface. Instead, shaking from the modest sized (moment magnitude 3.85) but proximal earthquake caused near-vent permeability increases that triggered increased outflow of hydrothermal fluids already present and equilibrated in a local hydrothermal aquifer. Long-term, multiparametric monitoring at Lassen and other well-instrumented volcanoes enhances interpretation of unrest and can provide a basis for detailed physical modeling.

California↗
USGS2015

The origin of Mauna Loa's Nīnole Hills: Evidence of rift zone reorganization

In order to identify the origin of Mauna Loa volcano's Nīnole Hills, Bouguer gravity was used to delineate density contrasts within the edifice. Our survey identified two residual anomalies beneath the Southwest Rift Zone (SWRZ) and the Nīnole Hills. The Nīnole Hills anomaly is elongated, striking northeast, and in inversions both anomalies merge at approximately −7 km above sea level. The positive anomaly, modeled as a rock volume of ~1200 km 3 beneath the Nīnole Hills, is associated with old eruptive vents. Based on the geologic and geophysical data, we propose that the gravity anomaly under the Nīnole Hills records an early SWRZ orientation, now abandoned due to geologically rapid rift-zone reorganization. Catastrophic submarine landslides from Mauna Loa's western flank are the most likely cause for the concurrent abandonment of the Nīnole Hills section of the SWRZ. Rift zone reorganization induced by mass wasting is likely more common than currently recognized.

Hawaii↗
USGS2015

Sediment transport-based metrics of wetland stability

Despite the importance of sediment availability on wetland stability, vulnerability assessments seldom consider spatiotemporal variability of sediment transport. Models predict that the maximum rate of sea level rise a marsh can survive is proportional to suspended sediment concentration (SSC) and accretion. In contrast, we find that SSC and accretion are higher in an unstable marsh than in an adjacent stable marsh, suggesting that these metrics cannot describe wetland vulnerability. Therefore, we propose the flood/ebb SSC differential and organic-inorganic suspended sediment ratio as better vulnerability metrics. The unstable marsh favors sediment export (18 mg L −1 higher on ebb tides), while the stable marsh imports sediment (12 mg L −1 higher on flood tides). The organic-inorganic SSC ratio is 84% higher in the unstable marsh, and stable isotopes indicate a source consistent with marsh-derived material. These simple metrics scale with sediment fluxes, integrate spatiotemporal variability, and indicate sediment sources.

Maryland↗
USGS2016

Unusually large tsunamis frequent a currently creeping part of the Aleutian megathrust

Current models used to assess earthquake and tsunami hazards are inadequate where creep dominates a subduction megathrust. Here we report geological evidence for large tsunamis, occurring on average every 300–340 years, near the source areas of the 1946 and 1957 Aleutian tsunamis. These areas bookend a postulated seismic gap over 200 km long where modern geodetic measurements indicate that the megathrust is currently creeping. At Sedanka Island, evidence for large tsunamis includes six sand sheets that blanket a lowland facing the Pacific Ocean, rise to 15 m above mean sea level, contain marine diatoms, cap terraces, adjoin evidence for scour, and date from the past 1700 years. The youngest sheet, and modern drift logs found as far as 800 m inland and >18 m elevation, likely record the 1957 tsunami. Modern creep on the megathrust coexists with previously unrecognized tsunami sources along this part of the Aleutian Subduction Zone.

Alaska↗
USGS2015

Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe

In this first worldwide synthesis of in situ and satellite-derived lake data, we find that lake summer surface water temperatures rose rapidly (global mean = 0.34°C decade −1 ) between 1985 and 2009. Our analyses show that surface water warming rates are dependent on combinations of climate and local characteristics, rather than just lake location, leading to the counterintuitive result that regional consistency in lake warming is the exception, rather than the rule. The most rapidly warming lakes are widely geographically distributed, and their warming is associated with interactions among different climatic factors—from seasonally ice-covered lakes in areas where temperature and solar radiation are increasing while cloud cover is diminishing (0.72°C decade −1 ) to ice-free lakes experiencing increases in air temperature and solar radiation (0.53°C decade −1 ). The pervasive and rapid warming observed here signals the urgent need to incorporate climate impacts into vulnerability assessments and adaptation efforts for lakes.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2015

Long-term anoxia and release of ancient, labile carbon upon thaw of Pleistocene permafrost

The fate of permafrost carbon upon thaw will drive feedbacks to climate warming. Here we consider the character and context of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in yedoma permafrost cores from up to 20 m depth in central Alaska. We observed high DOC concentrations (4 to 129 mM) and consistent low molecular weight organic acid concentrations in three cores. We estimate a DOC production rate of 12 µmol DOC m −2 yr −1 based on model ages of up to ~200 kyr derived from uranium isotopes. Acetate C accounted for 24 ± 1% of DOC in all samples. This proportion suggests long-term anaerobiosis and is likely to influence thaw outcomes due to biolability of acetate upon release in many environments. The combination of uranium isotopes, ammonium concentrations, and calcium concentrations explained 86% of the variation in thaw water DOC concentrations, suggesting that DOC production may be related to both reducing conditions and mineral dissolution over time.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2015

Mapping geoelectric fields during magnetic storms: Synthetic analysis of empirical United States impedances

Empirical impedance tensors obtained from EarthScope magnetotelluric data at sites distributed across the midwestern United States are used to examine the feasibility of mapping magnetic storm induction of geoelectric fields. With these tensors, in order to isolate the effects of Earth conductivity structure, we perform a synthetic analysis—calculating geoelectric field variations induced by a geomagnetic field that is geographically uniform but varying sinusoidally with a chosen set of oscillation frequencies that are characteristic of magnetic storm variations. For north-south oriented geomagnetic oscillations at a period of T 0 =100 s, induced geoelectric field vectors show substantial geographically distributed differences in amplitude (approximately a factor of 100), direction (up to 130 ∘ ), and phase (over a quarter wavelength). These differences are the result of three-dimensional Earth conductivity structure, and they highlight a shortcoming of one-dimensional conductivity models (and other synthetic models not derived from direct geophysical measurement) that are used in the evaluation of storm time geoelectric hazards for the electric power grid industry. A hypothetical extremely intense magnetic storm having 500 nT amplitude at T 0 =100 s would induce geoelectric fields with an average amplitude across the midwestern United States of about 2.71 V/km, but with a representative site-to-site range of 0.15 V/km to 16.77 V/km. Significant improvement in the evaluation of such hazards will require detailed knowledge of the Earth's interior three-dimensional conductivity structure.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2016

Seismic velocity structure of the crust and shallow mantle of the Central and Eastern United States by seismic surface wave imaging

Seismic surface waves from the Transportable Array of EarthScope's USArray are used to estimate phase velocity structure of 18 to 125 s Rayleigh waves, then inverted to obtain three-dimensional crust and upper mantle structure of the Central and Eastern United States (CEUS) down to ∼200 km. The obtained lithosphere structure confirms previously imaged CEUS features, e.g., the low seismic-velocity signature of the Cambrian Reelfoot Rift and the very low velocity at >150 km depth below an Eocene volcanic center in northwestern Virginia. New features include high-velocity mantle stretching from the Archean Superior Craton well into the Proterozoic terranes and deep low-velocity zones in central Texas (associated with the late Cretaceous Travis and Uvalde volcanic fields) and beneath the South Georgia Rift (which contains Jurassic basalts). Hot spot tracks may be associated with several imaged low-velocity zones, particularly those close to the former rifted Laurentia margin.

Geophysical Research Letters↗