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Assessing U.S. coal resources and reserves

The U.S. Coal Resources and Reserves Assessment Project, as part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Energy Resources Program, conducts systematic, geology-based, regional assessments of significant coal beds in major coal basins in the United States. These assessments detail the quantity, quality, location, and economic potential of the Nation’s remaining coal resources and reserves and provide objective scientific information that assists in the formulation of energy strategies, environmental policies, land-use management practices, and economic projections.

Fact Sheet

USGS research on energy resources, 1986; program and abstracts

The extended abstracts in this volume are summaries of the papers presented orally and as posters in the second V. E. McKelvey Forum on Mineral and Energy Resources, entitled "USGS Research on Energy Resources-1986." The Forum has been established to improve communication between the USGS and the earth science community by presenting the results of current USGS research on nonrenewable resources in a timely fashion and by providing an opportunity for individuals from other organizations to meet informally with USGS scientists and managers. It is our hope that the McKelvey Forum will help to make USGS programs more responsive to the needs of the earth science community, particularly the mining and petroleum industries, and Win foster closer cooperation between organizations and individuals. The Forum was named after former Director Vincent E. McKelvey in recognition of his lifelong contributions to research, development, and administration in mineral and energy resources, as a scientist, as Chief Geologist, and as Director of the U.S. Geological Survey. The Forum will be an annual event, and its subject matter will alternate between mineral and energy resources. We expect that the format will change somewhat from year to year as various approaches are tried, but its primary purpose will remain the same: to encourage direct communication between USGS scientists and the representatives of other earth-science related organizations. Energy programs of the USGS include oil and gas, coal, geothermal, uranium-thorium, and oil shale; work in these programs spans the national domain, including surveys of the offshore Exclusive Economic Zone. The topics selected for presentation at this McKelvey Forum represent an overview of the scientific breadth of USGS research on energy resources. They include aspects of petroleum occurrence in Eastern United States rift basins, the origin of magnetic anomalies over oil fields, accreted terranes and energy-resource implications, coal quality, geothermal energy sources, integrated geology and chemistry in uranium-deposit studies, and interpretations of sea-floor geology seen in reconnaissance-scale sidescan-sonar mosaics of the Gulf of Mexico and west coast Exclusive Economic Zone. Data are presented that are being used in building models of geothermal energy settings, basin histories, and the occurrence of energy resources. In addition to the technical sessions presenting the results of USGS research, each congressionally mandated USGS Mineral Resource Program has a display outlining plans and progress. We are all excited about this continuing opportunity to disseminate and discuss our research with our colleagues in industry and academia, and we welcome your suggestions on improving this series of Forums.

Circular

The Coastal and Marine Geology Program of the U.S. Geological Survey

Nearly half of all Americans live within an hour's drive of an ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, or the Great Lakes. The U.S. coastal oceans are an economically vital transportation, commercial and recreational resource. They provide food, energy, and minerals for the entire Nation: on a global scale, they harbor critical habitat for important animal and plant species.

Fact Sheet

Impacts of ocean-atmosphere teleconnection patterns on the south-central United States

Recent research has linked the climate variability associated with ocean-atmosphere teleconnections to impacts rippling throughout environmental, economic, and social systems. This research reviews recent literature through 2021 in which we identify linkages among the major modes of climate variability, in the form of ocean-atmosphere teleconnections, and the impacts to temperature and precipitation of the South-Central United States (SCUSA), consisting of Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. The SCUSA is an important areal focus for this analysis because it straddles the ecotone between humid and arid climates in the United States and has a growing population, diverse ecosystems, robust agricultural and other economic sectors including the potential for substantial wind and solar energy generation. Whereas a need exists to understand atmospheric variability due to the cascading impacts through ecological and social systems, our understanding is complicated by the positioning of the SCUSA between subtropical and extratropical circulation features and the influence of the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, and the adjacent Gulf of Mexico. The Southern Oscillation (SO), Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the related Arctic Oscillation (AO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation/Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMO/AMV), and Pacific Decadal Oscillation/Pacific Decadal Variability (PDO/PDV) have been shown to be important modulators of temperature and precipitation variables at the monthly, seasonal, and interannual scales, and the intraseasonal Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the SCUSA. By reviewing these teleconnection impacts in the region alongside updated seasonal correlation maps, this research provides more accessible and comparable results for interdisciplinary use on climate impacts beyond the atmospheric-environmental sciences.

Arkansas, Louisiana, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas

Economics and coal resource appraisal: strippable coal in the Illinois Basin ( USA)

Coal-resource appraisals generally describe the location and general characteristics of coal beds. Estimates are made of the average overburden depth (depth of the coal bed below the surface), bed thickness, and perhaps certain chemical properties of the coal [1]. Although such resource compilations represent an important initial step, neither they nor current estimates provide sufficient information to determine the costs of alternative options for National energy policy. Because coal is expected to provide an increasing part of future overall U.S. energy supply, it is crucial for long term planning that coalresource appraisals convey sufficient information regarding the degree of economic resource scarcity (escalation of unit costs for mining remaining deposits as the best deposits in an area are mined out) expected as coal consumption increases. However, assumptions embodied in most large-scale models of coal supply [13; 20] imply that the coal reserves that exist can be commercially produced as needed. As demonstrated by the embargo of 1973-1974 and more recent difficulties in obtaining crude oil, even a slight temporary commodity shortfall will result in significant economic losses when the commodity supplies a large proportion of the total energy used by an economy. For the United States, crude oil resource estimates did not give warning of a decline in domestic petroleum product. In this paper we argue that coal-resource estimates, as they are now made, will not give warning of future supply difficulties. A method for incorporating an economic dimension into appraisals of strippable coal resources is presented and is applied to a major U.S. coal-producing region, the Illinois part of the Illinois basin. Illinois accounts for nearly 70% of the demonstrated strippable coal reserve base of the Illinois basin [12]. In particular, a long-run incremental cost function (that is unit costs vs. cumulative reserves extracted) is estimated for strippable coal in Illinois. The estimated cost function exhibits an initial range over which costs increase at a constant rate-followed by a range where costs increase very rapidly and the function becomes quite inelastic. This long-run incremental cost function is significant for two reasons. Comparison of the demonstrated reserve base for strippable coal (14.8 billion tons) with cumulative production (since 1920 of 1.1 billion tons) might suggest that future depletion will not be significant when, in fact, the cost function presented here indicates otherwise. Because the only states having more reserves of strippable coal than Illinois are Montana and Wyoming [18], these results have implications for national coal-resource appraisal. Secondly, most models used to study the effects of alternative public policies in coal markets are static in nature [15; 16] and cannot consider the effects of increasing costs. Furthermore, models which are multi-period in nature [11; 13] appear to have little empirical basis for their assumptions regarding the escalation of production costs resulting from depletion. The plan of the paper is as follows. First a description of the analytical approach for constructing the long-run incremental cost-reserve function is discussed. Following this, the descriptions of the Illinois basin and the basic physical data are presented. In the concluding section, the main results are presented and their implications are explored

Southern Economic Journal

Prospects for heavy crude oil development

The problems of utilizing heavy crude oil and natural bitumens centre on their high viscosity which makes them difficult to produce, store, transport, and refine. These factors are reflected in costs. World reserves are substantial, however, perhaps as much as 7 trillion† barrels estimated to represent 0·9 trillion barrels of recoverable oil. Nearly 2·1 trillion barrels of heavy crude oil, more than 50% of the world's total reserve, are located in Venezuela largely in the Orinoco Oil Belt. About 75% of the natural bitumen, 2·6 trillion barrels, is located in Canada in the Athabasca, Cold Lake, and Peace River areas of Alberta. Most of the estimated undiscovered heavy crude oil in the world, approximately 630 billion barrels, is outside the US and Canada. Data required to determine the cost of finding natural bitumen and heavy oil are roughly the same as for other mineral commodities. Similarly for recovery costs. The variables are so extensive that dollar amounts have little meaning without qualification. Recovery depends on depth below surface. Near-surface deposits are recovered by mechanical mining. Deeper deposits must be won by thermal means. Transportation by pipeline is feasible only if the viscosity is lowered by partial upgrading, heating, or by the use of diluents. Part of the high cost of refining results from the major investment required for the large installations that are needed for economic rates of production.

Energy Exploration & Exploitation

Wind energy in the United States and materials required for the land-based wind turbine industry from 2010 through 2030

The generation of electricity in the United States from wind-powered turbines is increasing. An understanding of the sources and abundance of raw materials required by the wind turbine industry and the many uses for these materials is necessary to assess the effect of this industry's growth on future demand for selected raw materials relative to the historical demand for these materials. The U.S. Geological Survey developed estimates of future requirements for raw (and some recycled) materials based on the assumption that wind energy will supply 20 percent of the electricity consumed in the United States by 2030. Economic, environmental, political, and technological considerations and trends reported for 2009 were used as a baseline. Estimates for the quantity of materials in typical "current generation" and "next generation" wind turbines were developed. In addition, estimates for the annual and total material requirements were developed based on the growth necessary for wind energy when converted in a wind powerplant to generate 20 percent of the U.S. supply of electricity by 2030. The results of the study suggest that achieving the market goal of 20 percent by 2030 would require an average annual consumption of about 6.8 million metric tons of concrete, 1.5 million metric tons of steel, 310,000 metric tons of cast iron, 40,000 metric tons of copper, and 380 metric tons of the rare-earth element neodymium. With the exception of neodymium, these material requirements represent less than 3 percent of the U.S. apparent consumption for 2008. Recycled material could supply about 3 percent of the total steel required for wind turbine production from 2010 through 2030, 4 percent of the aluminum required, and 3 percent of the copper required. The data suggest that, with the possible exception of rare-earth elements, there should not be a shortage of the principal materials required for electricity generation from wind energy. There may, however, be selective manufacturing shortages if the total demand for raw materials from all markets is greater than the available supply of these materials or the capacity of industry to manufacture components. Changing economic conditions could also affect the development schedule of anticipated capacity.

Scientific Investigations Report

Greater Yellowstone climate assessment: Past, present, and future climate change in the greater Yellowstone watersheds

The Greater Yellowstone Area (GYA) is one of the last remaining large and nearly intact temperate ecosystems on Earth. GYA was originally defined in the 1970s as the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, which encompassed the minimum range of the grizzly bear. The boundary now includes about 22 million acres (8.9 million ha) in northwestern Wyoming, south central Montana, and eastern Idaho (Figure ES-1). Two national parks, five national forests, three wildlife refuges, 20 counties, and state and private lands lie within the GYA boundary (Figure ES-1). The Tribal Nations of the Eastern Shoshone, Northern Arapaho, Apsa´alooke/Crow, Northern Cheyenne, Shoshone, and Bannock have reservations in and near the Greater Yellowstone Area, and 27 Tribes are formally recognized to have historical connections to the lands and resources of the region. Natural resources sensitive to climate change connect many of the major economic activities of the GYA, including tourism and recreation, agriculture, and energy development.

Idaho, Montana, Wyoming

Reconnaissance of ground-water resources in the Mountain Home plateau area, southwest Idaho

The Mountain Home plateau area occupies approximately 1,220 square miles of the western Snake River Plain in southwestern Idaho. About 40,000 acres are presently (1977) irrigated with ground water, about 30,000 acres with surface water. An estimated 450,000 acres are potentially irrigable, if water is available. Development of ground-water re- sources has caused water-level declines in several places. Largest declines are south of Mountain Home, where water levels dropped more than 20 feet in the last 9 years. Ground water in the area occurs primarily under water-table conditions. Perched-water zones are present in several locations. The most productive aquifer in the eastern part of the plateau is basalt of the Bureau Formation of the Idaho Group. In the western part, the most productive aquifers are sand and gravel of the older terrace gravel lithologic unit and the Idaho Group. Recharge to the ground-water system is water from the Boise River drainage basin, precipitation on the plateau and adjacent mountains, and leakage from irrigation structures. Ground-water movement is generally south or southwest. Natural ground-water discharge from the plateau is about 18,000 acre-feet annually. The chemical composition of the ground water generally reflects water characteristics in the area of the source of recharge and, for the most part, is good. Deuterium and oxygen-18 isotope analyses suggest that the water at the lower end of the ground-water flow system underlying the plateau was recharged a long time ago, although climatic conditions then were similar to current conditions in the Boise River basin. Additional large-scale ground-water development will probably result in economically prohibitive pumping lifts, which also would consume excessive amounts of energy. Therefore, large-scale new agricultural development would depend heavily on the availability of surface water. However, one or several deep test holes, in selected places, could help answer some questions about the occurrence of ground water and perhaps encourage further exploration for untapped deep artesian aquifers. The occurrence of perched-water zones beneath lands irrigated by surface water suggests that more zones of this type could develop if water is imported into the area to irrigate additional lands, and if the efficiency of the present distribution systems remains unchanged.

Idaho

Chapter 10: Occurrence of non-native invasive plants: The role of anthropogenic features

The invasion of non-native plants in the Wyoming Basins Ecoregional Assessment (WBEA) area is a major economic and ecological stress, with invasions thought to be hastened by energy developments. Given the potential impacts of nonnative invasive plants and the rapid changes in land use in the WBEA, broad-scale assessments and predictive models of nonnative invasive plant distribution are needed. Using this information, the current extent of populations for targeting treatment and monitoring can be identified, the habitat affinities for forecasting where weeds may establish next determined, and the responses to individual human disturbances (such as energy developments) predicted. To address these needs, we conducted vegetation surveys across the WBEA area at 317 individual survey blocks (five plots per survey block) during the summers of 2005 and 2006. Survey blocks were stratified by both human disturbance and habitat productivity; in each of five plots per survey block the occurrence of 23 common nonnative invasive plants was recorded during early and late season surveys. Here, we report on the four most common invasive plants, crested wheatgrass ( Agropyron cristatum ), cheatgrass ( Bromus tectorum ), halogeton ( Halogeton glomeratus ), and Russian thistle ( Salsola spp. ). Occurrence models were generated for each species using random-effects logistic regression to account for nesting of plots within sample sites. Predictors of occupancy included local habitat, abiotic condition, and distance to anthropogenic features. Although occurrences of all four invasive plants were affected by habitat, abiotic, and anthropogenic factors, cheatgrass and Russian thistle were most strongly associated with anthropogenic disturbance, primarily major roads and energy well sites. We assessed relationships between environmental and anthropogenic predictors and species occurrences to identify the major factors affecting current species distribution, examined shape of the response in occurrence in relation to proximity to individual anthropogenic disturbances, and provided spatial predictions of the locations where invasive plants are most likely to occur.

Wyoming

Overview of future USGS Gulf of Mexico buoyant storage assessment project

The United States Geological Survey (USGS) is a member of a U.S. Department of Energy-funded partnership headed by the University of Texas Bureau of Economic Geology that is working to assess the feasibility of offshore geologic carbon dioxide (CO2) storage in the Gulf of Mexico. The role of the USGS is to assess the buoyant geologic CO2 storage resource of the western half of the offshore Gulf of Mexico (GoM). Buoyant CO2 storage is the CO2 held in place by a top and lateral seal (either a sealing formation or a sealing fault), that creates a column of CO2 in communication across pore space in a geologic reservoir. This assessment will be similar to the USGS assessment of onshore buoyant geologic CO2 storage [1] and will employ a modified version of existing USGS methodology [2] to assess the buoyant CO2 storage capacity in the GoM.

Gulf of Mexico

Terrestrial ecological risk analysis via dietary exposure at uranium mine sites in the Grand Canyon watershed (Arizona, USA)

The U.S. Department of the Interior recently included uranium (U) on a list of mineral commodities that are considered critical to economic and national security. The uses of U for commercial and residential energy production, defense applications, medical device technologies, and energy generation for space vehicles and satellites are known, but the environmental impacts of uranium extraction are not always well quantified. We conducted a screening-level ecological risk analysis based on exposure to mining-related elements via diets and incidental soil ingestion for terrestrial biota to provide context to chemical characterization and exposures at breccia pipe U mines in northern Arizona. Relative risks, calculated as hazard quotients (HQs), were generally low for all biological receptor models. Our models screened for risk to omnivores and insectivores (HQs>1) but not herbivores and carnivores. Uranium was not the driver of ecological risk; arsenic, cadmium, copper, and zinc were of concern for biota consuming ground-dwelling invertebrates. Invertebrate species composition should be considered when applying these models to other mining locations or future sampling at the breccia pipe mine sites. Dietary concentration thresholds (DCTs) were also calculated to understand food concentrations that may lead to ecological risk. The DCTs indicated that critical concentrations were not approached in our model scenarios, as evident in the very low HQs for most models. The DCTs may be used by natural resource and land managers as well as mine operators to screen or monitor for potential risk to terrestrial receptors as mine sites are developed and remediated in the future.

Arizona

Geology and mineral resources of the North Absaroka Wilderness and vicinity, Park County, Wyoming, with sections on mineralization of the Sunlight mining region and geology and mineralization of the Cooke City mining district, and a section on aeromagnetic interpretation

SUMMARY The North Absaroka Wilderness is approximately 560 square miles (1,450 km 2 ) of rugged scenic mountainous terrain that adjoins the eastern boundary of Yellowstone National Park in northwestern Wyoming. The area was studied during 1970, 1971, and 1972 by personnel of the U. S. Geological Survey and the U. S. Bureau of Mines to evaluate its mineral-resource potential as required by the Wilderness Act of 1964. This evaluation is based on a search of the literature courthouse and production records, geologic field mapping, field inspection of claims and prospects, analyses of bedrock and stream-sediment samples, and an aeromagnetic survey. The North Absaroka Wilderness is underlain almost entirely by andesitic and basaltic volcanic rocks of Eocene age. These volcanics rest on deformed sedimentary rocks of Paleozoic and, locally, of Mesozoic age that are exposed at places along the northern and eastern edges of the wilderness. Dikes and other igneous intrusive bodies cut both the volcanic and sedimentary rocks. A nearly flat detachment fault, the Heart Mountain fault, and a related steep break-away fault have displaced middle and upper Paleozoic rocks and some of the older part of the volcanic sequence to the southeast. A much greater thickness of volcanic rocks was found to be involved in Heart Mountain faulting than had previously been recognized; however, most of the volcanic rocks and many of the intrusives were emplaced after Heart Mountain faulting. Local folding and high-angle faulting in mid-Eocene time have deformed all but the youngest part of the volcanic sequence in the southeastern part of the wilderness. This deformation is interpreted as the last pulse of Laramide orogeny. The results of this study indicate that the mineral-resource potential of the wilderness is minimal. Bentonite, petroleum, low-quality coal, and localized deposits of uranium and chromite have been produced in the surrounding region from rocks that underlie the volcanic rocks; but such deposits, if present in the wilderness, would be too deeply buried, too small, or too sporadically distributed to be profitably located and exploited. Copper and gold mines and prospects are present on the fringes of the wilderness, but otherwise the area seems to be devoid of economically valuable concentrations of metallic minerals. No surface evidence of geothermal-energy potential was found. Known mineral deposits in the vicinity of the North Absaroka Wilderness are associated with intrusive rocks. From the Cooke City mining district, just north of the wilderness, replacement deposits in Upper Cambrian carbonate rocks may extend a short distance into the north edge of the wilderness, In the Sunlight mining region, an enclave nearly surrounded by the wilderness, mineralization occurs in veins and is disseminated in volcanic and plutonic rocks. Richer concentrations of metallic minerals may occur in carbonate rocks adjacent to intrusive bodies at depth beneath the volcanic rocks in the Sunlight region. A few small intrusive bodies occur in the wilderness, but no significant associated mineralization was detected. Aeromagnetic data indicate that other intrusives not exposed by erosion may occur in the wilderness; however, no significant metamorphism or alteration is evident at the surface to indicate their presence. Although most of the rocks of the wilderness are of igneous origin, they are all so old (Eocene) that it is unlikely that they retain any original heat. The Pleistocene rhyolitic ash-flow tuffs in the southwestern part of the wilderness were erupted from sources in Yellowstone National Park just to the west; however, in the wilderness these tuffs are too thin to contain any residual heat.

Wyoming

Managing the water-energy-food nexus: Opportunities in Central Asia

This article examines impacts of infrastructure development and climate variability on economic outcomes for the Amu Darya Basin in Central Asia. It aims to identify the most economically productive mix of expanded reservoir storage for economic benefit sharing to occur, in which economic welfare of all riparians is improved. Policies examined include four combinations of storage infrastructure for each of two climate futures. An empirical optimization model is developed and applied to identify opportunities for improving the welfare of Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan. The analysis 1) characterizes politically constrained and economically optimized water-use patterns for these combinations of expanded reservoir storage capacity, 2) describes Pareto-Improving packages of expanded storage capacity that could raise economic welfare for all four riparians, and accounts for impacts for each of two climate scenarios. Results indicate that a combination of targeted water storage infrastructure and efficient water allocation could produce outcomes for which the discounted net present value of benefits are favorable for each riparian. Results identify a framework to provide economic motivation for all riparians to cooperate through development of water storage infrastructure. Our findings illustrate the principle that development of water infrastructure can expand the negotiation space by which all communities can gain economic benefits in the face of limited water supply. Still, despite our optimistic findings, patient and deliberate negotiation will be required to transform potential improvements into actual gains.

Journal of Hydrology

Coal-to-liquids: Potential impact on U.S. coal reserves

The production of liquid fuels from coal will very likely become an important part of the hydrocarbon energy mix of the future, provided that technical and environmental obstacles are overcome economically. The coal industry should be able to handle a coal-to-liquids (CTL) industry of modest size, using 60-70 million short tons or 54-64 million metric tonnes of coal per annum, without premature depletion of the country's coal reserves. However, attempts to use CTL technology to replace all petroleum imports would deplete the nation's coal reserves by the end of the century. ?? 2009 U.S. Government.

Natural Resources Research

Storm-influenced deltaic deposits of the Middle Jurassic Gaikema Sandstone in a measured section on the northern Iniskin Peninsula, Cook Inlet basin, Alaska

Middle Jurassic strata of the Gaikema Sandstone were deposited about 170 million years ago on a delta that was located on the western shoreline of the Cook Inlet basin (Detterman and Hartsock, 1966; LePain and others, 2011, 2013). The delta was built by swift, sediment-laden rivers that flowed southeastward from a mountainous volcanic terrane west of the Bruin Bay fault (fig. 6-1). Upon reaching the edge of the Jurassic sea, the rivers dumped abundant sand, gravel, and mud into a depocenter on the northern Iniskin Peninsula, about 240 km southwest of Anchorage (figs. 6-1, 6-2). This report provides a preliminary description and interpretation of a detailed, 34-m-thick measured section in the Gaikema Sandstone on the south shore of Chinitna Bay at latitude 59.816°N, longitude 153.168°W (figs. 6-1–6-3). The sandstone in this measured section exhibits hummocky cross lamination and other features suggestive of storm-influenced deposition on the shallow-marine, seaward margin of the Gaikema delta. Our field studies of the Gaikema Sandstone were conducted during 2013 and 2014 as part of a collaborative effort by the Alaska Division of Geological & Geophysical Surveys (DGGS), Alaska Division of Oil and Gas (DOG), and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to provide the public with reliable information on the geologic framework and petroleum resource potential of Cook Inlet basin (Gillis, 2013, 2014). Jurassic rocks in Cook Inlet, including the Gaikema Sandstone, are of economic interest because they could contain significant undiscovered petroleum resources (Bureau of Ocean Energy Management, 2011; Stanley and others, 2011a, 2011b, 2013a; LePain and others, 2013).

Alaska

Evaluating the potential of co-located non-petroleum energy resources in the Gulf Coast using play fairwayaAnalysis

Geological resources critical to the energy transition, such as sedimentary geothermal, carbon storage potential, and lithium in brines, commonly struggle for economic feasibility as stand-alone developments but can have greater viability when the potential for more than one of these resources exist within the same reservoir or stacked in different stratigraphic intervals. There may also be instances where development of one resource inhibits development of others and decisions need to be made on how to best prioritize the use of those resources in the subsurface. Subsurface data sets were analyzed and integrated to evaluate the distribution of non-petroleum energy and related resources in the onshore and nearshore U.S. Gulf Coast. Temperature, pressure, brine composition (lithium content), and reservoir quality data for thirty-four depositional units have been compiled and visualized to high-grade areas where multiple resource opportunities likely coexist. For sedimentary geothermal, possible resource areas are defined as low potential (<90°C), moderate potential (90–150°C), and high potential (>150°C). For CO 2 storage, high potential areas exhibit supercritical CO 2 conditions less than 80% of the fracture gradient. Areas with pore pressure between 80% and 100% of the fracture gradient are considered to exhibit moderate potential and areas where the fracture gradient is equal to or greater than 100% are assigned low potential. Lithium resources in brines were defined by lithium concentrations as low potential (<100ppm), moderate potential (100-200ppm), or high potential (>200ppm). Reservoir quality affects the viability of all three of these resources and is evaluated using depositional environment maps of each unit. The resulting play fairway maps can be used for regional scale screening evaluations of these resources and to identify areas of interest where more detailed, prospect-scale studies can be undertaken.

Gulf Coast

Critical analysis of world uranium resources

The U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA) joined with the U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) to analyze the world uranium supply and demand balance. To evaluate short-term primary supply (0–15 years), the analysis focused on Reasonably Assured Resources (RAR), which are resources projected with a high degree of geologic assurance and considered to be economically feasible to mine. Such resources include uranium resources from mines currently in production as well as resources that are in the stages of feasibility or of being permitted. Sources of secondary supply for uranium, such as stockpiles and reprocessed fuel, were also examined. To evaluate long-term primary supply, estimates of uranium from unconventional and from undiscovered resources were analyzed. At 2010 rates of consumption, uranium resources identified in operating or developing mines would fuel the world nuclear fleet for about 30 years. However, projections currently predict an increase in uranium requirements tied to expansion of nuclear energy worldwide. Under a low-demand scenario, requirements through the period ending in 2035 are about 2.1 million tU. In the low demand case, uranium identified in existing and developing mines is adequate to supply requirements. However, whether or not these identified resources will be developed rapidly enough to provide an uninterrupted fuel supply to expanded nuclear facilities could not be determined. On the basis of a scenario of high demand through 2035, 2.6 million tU is required and identified resources in operating or developing mines is inadequate. Beyond 2035, when requirements could exceed resources in these developing properties, other sources will need to be developed from less well-assured resources, deposits not yet at the prefeasibility stage, resources that are currently subeconomic, secondary sources, undiscovered conventional resources, and unconventional uranium supplies. This report’s analysis of 141 mines that are operating or are being actively developed identifies 2.7 million tU of in-situ uranium resources worldwide, approximately 2.1 million tU recoverable after mining and milling losses were deducted. Sixty-four operating mines report a total of 1.4 million tU of in-situ RAR (about 1 million tU recoverable). Seventy-seven developing mines/production centers report 1.3 million tU in-situ Reasonably Assured Resources (RAR) (about 1.1 million tU recoverable), which have a reasonable chance of producing uranium within 5 years. Most of the production is projected to come from conventional underground or open pit mines as opposed to in-situ leach mines. Production capacity in operating mines is about 76,000 tU/yr, and in developing mines is estimated at greater than 52,000 tU/yr. Production capacity in operating mines should be considered a maximum as mines seldom produce up to licensed capacity due to operational difficulties. In 2010, worldwide mines operated at 70 percent of licensed capacity, and production has never exceeded 89 percent of capacity. The capacity in developing mines is not always reported. In this study 35 percent of developing mines did not report a target licensed capacity, so estimates of future capacity may be too low. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Nuclear Energy Agency (NEA) and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimate an additional 1.4 million tU economically recoverable resources, beyond that identified in operating or developing mines identified in this report. As well, 0.5 million tU in subeconomic resources, and 2.3 million tU in the geologically less certain inferred category are identified worldwide. These agencies estimate 2.2 million tU in secondary sources such as government and commercial stockpiles and re-enriched uranium tails. They also estimate that unconventional uranium supplies (uraniferous phosphate and black shale deposits) may contain up to 7.6 million tU. Although unconventional resources are currently subeconomic, the improvement of extraction techniques or the production of coproducts may make extraction of uranium from these types of deposits profitable. A large undiscovered resource base is reported by these agencies, however this class of resource should be considered speculative and will require intensive exploration programs to adequately define them as mineable. These resources may all contribute to uranium supply that would fuel the world nuclear fleet well beyond that calculated in this report. Production of resources in both operating and developing uranium mines is subject to uncertainties caused by technical, legal, regulatory, and financial challenges that combined to create long timelines between deposit discovery and mine production. This analysis indicates that mine development is proceeding too slowly to fully meet requirements for an expanded nuclear power reactor fleet in the near future (to 2035), and unless adequate secondary or unconventional resources can be identified, imbalances in supply and demand may occur.

Scientific Investigations Report