Safety and survival in an earthquake
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The Cape Mendocino earthquake of April 25, 1992, generated a tsunami recorded by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) sea level gauges in California, Oregon, and Hawaii. The accompanying figure shows the tsunami waveforms acquired at twelve of these stations. the table that follows identifies these stations and gives preliminary estimates of the tsunami travel time from the source region to selected West Coast stations.
The 1980's were incredible years for volcanology. As a consequence of the Mount St. Helens and other eruptions, major advances in our understanding of volcanic processes and eruption dynamics were made. the decade also witnessed the greatest death toll caused by volcanism since 1902. Following Mount St. Helens, awareness of volcano hazards increased throughout the world; however, in Latin America, subsequent events showed that much was still to be learned.
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In July 1988, the Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors directed the Chief Administrative Office to develop an educational program aimed at improving earthquake preparedness among Los Angeles County residents. the board recognized that current earthquake education efforts were not only insufficient, but also often confusing and costly. The board unanimously approved the development of a program that would make earthquake preparedness a year-long effort by encouraging residents to take a different precaution each month.
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Throughout history, humanity has found itself in conflict with naturally occurring events of geologic, hydrologic, and atmospheric origin. this conflict has been demonstrated repeatedly when people build urban centers at the water's edge, in or near active fault systems capable of generating earthquakes, on steep slopes, near active volcanoes, or at the urban-wilderness interface prone to wildfires. Naturally occurring, recurrent events such as floods, windstorms, tsunamis, earthquakes, landslides, volcanic eruptions, and wildfires have tested human-engineered works many times and have often found them unable to withstand the forces generated by the event. In the past 20 years, for example, events like these throughout the world have claimed more than 2.8 million lives and adversely affected 820 million people; single disasters have caused economic losses of billions of dollars. Industrialized countries like the United States and Japan have been able to absorb the socioeconomic losses of past natural disasters, but the economics of many developing countries have been devastated by losses equal to a large percentage of their gross national product. Furthermore, the magnitude of the losses is increasing at a rapid rate as the building wealth of nations is expanded to meet the needs of rapidly increasing population, often without adequate consideration of the potential threat posed by the recurrent natural hazards and without implementing effective loss-reduction measures because of lack of knowledge or lack of technical capability.
Worldwide losses from natural disasters are increasing rapidly due to population growth, urban sprawl, and increasing concentration of new construction in high-risk areas. to deal with these problems, the United Nations has designated the 1990's as the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). The United States and more than 150 other nations signed the IDNDR resolution at the 44th General Assembly of the United Nations. The resolution calls on all nations to develop programs to reduce loss of life, economic impact, and human suffering caused by natural disasters. IDNDR offers an unprecedented opportunity to apply new knowledge and technology to minimize losses in regions at high risks. The program is very challenging because full implementation requires a multidisciplinary effort on a global scale, an undertaking never before attempted. In concert with the other signatory nations, the Untied States is carrying out a balanced and comprehensive program of research and applications as a contribution to the IDNDR. The U.S program is designed to reduce both loss of life and property damage from natural disasters.
Major urban areas in widely scattered geographic locations across the United States are a t varying degrees of risk from earthquakes. the locations of these urban areas include Charleston, South Carolina; Memphis Tennessee; St.Louis, Missouri; Salt Lake City, Utah; Seattle-Tacoma, Washington; Portland, Oregon; and Anchorage, Alaska; even Boston, Massachusetts, and Buffalo New York, have a history of large earthquakes. Cooperative research during the past decade has focused on assessing the nature and degree of the risk or seismic hazard i nthe broad geographic regions around each urban area. The strategy since the 1970's has been to bring together local, State, and Federal resources to solve the problem of assessing seismic risk. Successfl sooperative programs have been launched in the San Francisco Bay and Los Angeles regions in California and the Wasatch Front region in Utah.
Geomagnetic storms are large and sometimes rapid fluctuations in the Earth's magnetic field that are related to disturbances on the Sun's surface. Although it is not widely recognized, these transient magnetic disturbances can be a significant hazard to people and property. Many of us know that the intensity of the auroral lights increases during magnetic storms, but few people realize that these storms can also cause massive power outages, interrupt radio communications and satellite operations, increase corrosion in oil and gas pipelines, and lead to spuriously high rejection rates in the manufacture of sensitive electronic equipment.
Slope instability along a new highway bypass in Golden, Colorado, became a major concern in 1993. Rains and snowmelt accelerated movement of a landslide that had begun to develop before the bypass was opened to traffic in July of 1991. The downslope movement of earth materials increased significantly in 1993. During the first few months of the year, the landslide pushed onto the west shoulder of the road and crumpled the pavement beneath the south-bound lane. As we prepare this article (September, 1993), the slide continues to encroach onto the highway, posing a persistent problem despite repeated efforts to slow or stop its movement. As this article will show, permanent solutions to landslide problems of this kind are difficult to obtain.
Over time, active volcanoes have captured human fascination, not only because of their strange and dramatic beauty, but also because of their power to destroy. Two active U.S volcanoes-one on the Big Island of Hawaii, the other part of the Cascade Range in the Pacific Northwest-will be the focus of "Inside Active Volcanoes: Kilauea and Mount St. Helens." This major exhibit opened July 6 in the Evans Gallery of the Smithsonian's National Museum of Natural history in Washington, D.C, and continued through September 24.
In November 1966, sixty percent of Venice, Italy, is inundated by a storm surge that causes waters in the Venetian lagoon to rise more than 6 feet. On December 28, 1971, a janitor at the Washington Elementary School in Johnston City, Illinois, discovers sever cracking of the school. In January 1972, the school is abandoned and subsequently razed. In the 1970's, five homes in New Orleans, Louisiana, are destroyed by gas explosins. In May 198, a 350 feet diameter sink-hole forms in a business area in Winter Park, Florida, and swallows a home and parts of several businesses. In August 1983, Hurricane Alicia slams into the texas Gulf Coast near Houston, Texas, and devastates the 500 home Brownwood subdivision on the north end of Galveston Bay. Homes are torn from their foundations and reduced to rubble.
The magnitude 7.1 mainshock on April 25, 992, caused substantial changes in the elevation of the Earth's surface in the Cape Mendocino region. Precise measurements of such elevation changes aid in long-term emergency planning and are needed for engineering design and the maintenance of roads, bridges, and waterways. Such measurements also enable researchers to estimate the attitude and slip of the causative fault. Elevation changes, as well as horizontal displacements of the Earth's surface, are an expected consequence of dip-slip displacement on earthquake faults. the rock surrounding and overlying the fault is forced to stretch and bend to accommodate fault slip. Slip in the case of the April 25 mainshock is thought to have occurred on a gently inclined plane dipping to the northeast at a small angle (see article on preliminary seismological results in this issue).The associated fault-plane solution implies that rock overlying the fault plane (the hanging-wall block west and south of the epicenter) rose and shifted to the northeast. The map on the next page shows the location of the epicenter and approximate extent of uplift and subsidence derived from estimates of the geometry, location. and slip on the buried fault plane.
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Let's face it: seismologists do a pretty poor job of communicating the facts about our science to the public. Earthquake magnitude is the classic example. How many of us have struggled to explain the Richter scale? We explain that it is logarithmic, with each unit indicating a factor of 10 increase, but this really represents a factor of 32 increase in intrinsic earthquake size, and in any case we don't use the Richter scale anymore. By then the unfortunate listener is reeling and can be dispatched quietly by mentioning negative magnitudes or saturation. We even wonder why the audience or the reporter has this glazed look when we we finish. A local engineer, E.P Hailey, pointed this problem out to me shortly after the Loma Prieta earthquake. He felt that three problems limited the usefulness of magnitude in describing an earthquake to the public; (1) most people don't understand that it is not a linear scale; (2) of those who do realized the scale is not linear, very few understand the difference of a factor of ten in ground motion and 32 in energy release between points on the scale; and (3) even those who understand the first two points have trouble putting a given magnitude value into terms they can relate to. In summary, Mr. Hailey wondered why seismologists can't come up with an earthquake scale that doesn't confuse everyone and that conveys a sense of true relative size. Here, then, is m attempt to construct such a scale.
Early on the morning of June 28, 1992, millions of people in southern California were awakened by the largest earthquake to occur in the western United States in the past 40 yrs. At 4:58 a.m PDT (local time), faulting associated with the magnitude 7.3 earthquake broke through to earth's surface near the town of Landers, California. the surface rupture then propagated 70km (45 mi) to the north and northwest along a band of faults passing through the middle of the Mojave Desert. Fortunately, the strongest shaking occurred in uninhabited regions of the Mojave Desert. Still one child was killed in Yucca Valley, and about 400 people were injured in the surrounding area. the desert communities of Landers, Yucca Valley, and Joshua Tree in San Bernardino Country suffered considerable damage to buildings and roads. Damage to water and power lines caused problems in many areas.
The Klamath Falls earthquakes caused landslides throughout an area of about 420 sq km and as far as about 29 km from the epicenter, a distribution that is typical for magnitude 6 earthquakes (see graphs on following pages). Most of the landslides were rock falls or shallow, highly disrupted rock slides from roadcuts, quarries, and steep bluff faces. Such landslides are also among the most common types caused by other earthquakes of comparable magnitude. In the Klamath Falls area, the most numerous earthquake-induced rock falls were along the east-to southeast-facing flank of a ridge immediately south and west of Howard Bay (locality 1 on the accompanying map), 18 km east-southeast of the epicenter of the magntiude 6.0 shock at 10:45 p.m. This ridge is more than 240 m high and has slopes steeper than 45 ° in places. The upper part of the ridge is composed of material from basaltic lava flows, an the lower slopes are covered with colluvium and talus deposits containing abundant boulders.