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USGS2020

Reassessing particulate organic carbon dynamics in the highly disturbed San Francisco Bay Estuary

Environmental research has been shifting toward a new normal in which a primary focus is to capture change that may be accelerating. In this study, we collected particulate samples in the northern San Francisco Bay Estuary (SFBE) in the fall of 2011 through the spring of 2012 in order to assess vascular plant contributions across both time and space and to compare our findings with a similar set of samples from 1990 to 1992. Across the ∼20-year span, we detected (1) decreasing C:N a ratios (averages ± SD of 12.5 ± 2.5 vs. 8.8 ± 1.4, significant t -test with p < 0.0001); (2) distinct shifts in chlorophyll vs. salinity, with higher chlorophyll concentrations shifting toward freshwater; and (3) greater relative proportions of vascular plant carbon that also appears less degraded (as indicated by lignin measurements) shifting from freshwater toward higher salinities. Lignin compositional data (syringyl:vanillyl and cinnamyl:vanillyl) suggest that increased lignin content in the more saline samples could be derived from wetland materials, while a two-endmember mixing model indicates that a significant portion of the particulate organic carbon (POC) in the western sites (50–60% as an upper bound, 13–15% as a lower bound) could be wetland-derived. This has potential implications for the lower food web, given recent work that demonstrates selective feeding by copepods on wetland detrital material in the northern SFBE. The latter has ramifications for proposed wetland restoration within the SFBE and Sacramento River/San Joaquin River Delta system, namely, that restored wetlands could confer important benefits toward the food web. Equally important is to prioritize continued monitoring of particulate organic matter cycling in the SFBE system to make sure that changing conditions are accounted for in any management decision.

California↗

USGS2024

Remote sensing large-wood storage downstream of reservoirs during and after dam removal: Elwha River, Washington, USA

Large wood is an integral part of many rivers, often defining river-corridor morphology and habitat, but its occurrence, magnitude, and evolution in a river system are much less well understood than the sedimentary and hydraulic components, and due to methodological limitations, have seldom previously been mapped in substantial detail. We present a new method for this, representing a substantial advance in automated deep-learning-based image segmentation. From these maps, we measured large wood and sediment deposits from high-resolution orthoimages to explore the dynamics of large wood in two reaches of the Elwha River, Washington, USA, between 2012 and 2017 as it adjusted to upstream dam removals. The data set consists of a time series of orthoimages (12.5-cm resolution) constructed using Structure-from-Motion photogrammetry on imagery from 14 aerial surveys. Model training was optimized to yield maximum accuracy for estimated wood areas, compared to manually digitized wood, therefore model development and intended application were coupled. These fully reproducible methods and model resulted in a maximum of 15% error between observed and estimated total wood areas and wood deposit size-distributions over the full spatio-temporal extent of the data. Areal extent of wood in the channel margin approximately doubled in the years following dam removal, with greatest increases in large wood in wider, lower-gradient sections. Large-wood deposition increased between the start of dam removal (2011) and winter 2013, then plateaued. Sediment bars continued to grow up until 2016/17, assisted by a partially static wood framework deposited predominantly during the period up to winter 2013.

Washington↗

USGS2018

Measuring SO2 emission rates at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawaii, using an array of upward-looking UV spectrometers, 2014-2017

Retrieving accurate volcanic sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ) gas emission rates is important for a variety of purposes. It is an indicator of shallow subsurface magma, and thus may signal impending eruption or unrest. SO 2 emission rates are significant for accurately assessing climate impact, and providing context for assessing environmental, agricultural, and human health effects during volcanic eruptions. The U.S. Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory uses an array of ten fixed, upward-looking ultraviolet spectrometer systems to measure SO 2 emission rates at 10-s sample intervals from the Kīlauea summit. We present Kīlauea SO 2 emission rates from the volcano’s summit and middle East Rift Zone during 2014–2017 and discuss the major sources of error for these measurements. Due to the wide range of SO 2 emissions encountered at the summit vent, we used a variable wavelength spectral analysis range to accurately quantify both high and low SO 2 column densities. We compare measured emission rates from the fixed spectrometer array to independent road and helicopter-based traverse measurements and evaluate the magnitudes and sources of uncertainties for each method. To address the challenge of obtaining accurate plume speed measurements, we examine ground-based wind-speed, plume speed tracking via spectrometer, and SO 2 camera derived plume speeds. Our analysis shows that: (1) the summit array column densities calculated using a dual fit window, are within -6 to +22% of results obtained with a variety of other conventional and experimental retrieval methods; (2) emission rates calculated from the summit array located ∼3 km downwind provide the best, practical estimate of summit SO 2 release under normal trade wind conditions; (3) ground-based anemometer wind speeds are 22% less than plume speeds determined by cross-correlation of plume features; (4) our best estimate of average Kīlauea SO 2 release for 2014–2017 is 5100 t/d, which is comparable to the space-based OMI emissions of 5518 t/d; and (5) short-term variability of SO 2 emissions reflects Kīlauea lava lake dynamics.

Hawaii↗

USGS2016

Joint analysis of geodetic and earthquake fault-plane solution data to constrain magmatic sources: A case study from Kīlauea Volcano

A joint analysis of geodetic and seismic datasets from Kīlauea Volcano during a period of magmatic unrest in 2006 demonstrates the effectiveness of this combination for testing and constraining models of magma dynamics for a complex, multi-source system. At the end of 2003, Kīlauea's summit began a four-year-long period of inflation due to a surge in magma supply to the volcano. In 2006, for the first time since 1982, Kīlauea's Southwest Rift Zone (SWRZ) also experienced inflation. To investigate the characteristics of active magma sources and the nature of their interactions with faults in the SWRZ during 2006, we integrate, through Coulomb stress modeling, contemporary geodetic data from InSAR and GPS with a new catalogue of double-couple fault-plane solutions for volcano-tectonic earthquakes. We define two periods of inflation during 2006 based on the rate of deformation measured in daily GPS data, spanning February to 15 March 2006 (Period 1) and 16 March to 30 September 2006 (Period 2). InSAR data for these two periods are inverted to determine the position, change in size, and shape of inflation sources in each period. Our new models are consistent with microseismic activity from each period. They suggest that, during Period 1, deformation in the SWRZ can be explained by pressurization of magma in a spherical reservoir beneath the south caldera, and that, during Period 2, magma was also aseismically intruded farther to the southwest into the SWRZ along a sub-horizontal plane. Our Coulomb stress analysis shows that the microseismicity recorded in the SWRZ is induced by overpressurization of the south caldera reservoir, and not by magma intrusion into the SWRZ. This study highlights the importance of a joint analysis of independent geophysical datasets to fully constrain the nature of magma accumulation.

Hawaii↗

USGS2018

Wetlands inform how climate extremes influence surface water expansion and contraction

Effective monitoring and prediction of flood and drought events requires an improved understanding of how and why surface water expansion and contraction in response to climate varies across space. This paper sought to (1) quantify how interannual patterns of surface water expansion and contraction vary spatially across the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) and adjacent Northern Prairie (NP) in the United States, and (2) explore how landscape characteristics influence the relationship between climate inputs and surface water dynamics. Due to differences in glacial history, the PPR and NP show distinct patterns in regards to drainage development and wetland density, together providing a diversity of conditions to examine surface water dynamics. We used Landsat imagery to characterize variability in surface water extent across 11 Landsat path/rows representing the PPR and NP (images spanned 1985–2015). The PPR not only experienced a 2.6-fold greater surface water extent under median conditions relative to the NP, but also showed a 3.4-fold greater change in surface water extent between drought and deluge conditions. The relationship between surface water extent and accumulated water availability (precipitation minus potential evapotranspiration) was quantified per watershed and statistically related to variables representing hydrology-related landscape characteristics (e.g., infiltration capacity, surface storage capacity, stream density). To investigate the influence stream connectivity has on the rate at which surface water leaves a given location, we modeled stream-connected and stream-disconnected surface water separately. Stream-connected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with greater total wetland area, but lower total wetland density. Disconnected surface water showed a greater expansion with wetter climatic conditions in landscapes with higher wetland density, lower infiltration and less anthropogenic drainage. From these findings, we can expect that shifts in precipitation and evaporative demand will have uneven effects on surface water quantity. Accurate predictions regarding the effect of climate change on surface water quantity will require consideration of hydrology-related landscape characteristics including wetland storage and arrangement.

Prairie Pothole Regino↗

USGS2024

The National Ocean Biodiversity Strategy

President Biden has been clear that the ocean is central to life on Earth. As he has proclaimed, “the ocean powers millions of jobs; feeds and sustains us; and is a rejuvenating source of inspiration, exploration, and recreation.” The Biden-Harris Administration has worked hard to fulfill the President’s goal to protect and conserve at least 30% of U.S. waters by 2030. The ocean faces increased threats from warming, overfishing, increased acidity, and loss of biodiversity. It is now more important than ever to sustain the many benefits that the ocean, coasts, and Great Lakes provide, including food, a favorable climate, recreation, physical and mental health, and for many, a sense of cultural identity. Ocean life represents an irreplaceable heritage, the foundation of a habitable planet, and a vast trove of resources. Keeping our ocean healthy requires reliable information on the changing status of these living organisms, the drivers of biodiversity change, and options for effectively addressing those drivers. Over 2 million species are estimated to live in the ocean, yet only about 240,000 species have been described by scientists. Most of the ocean’s benefits result from those diverse species interacting with one another and the environment they create. To protect and conserve the ocean, we as a nation need to make better use of existing knowledge and prioritize acquiring new biodiversity knowledge to enable better policy and management decisions. The ability to monitor ocean species and habitats has expanded dramatically over the past decade, with innovations in technology, genomics, taxonomy, big data management and sharing, artificial intelligence, and machine learning. Yet large fractions of the U.S. ocean remain almost unknown. The National Ocean Biodiversity Strategy (strategy) reflects the urgent need to leverage these advances. The goals of this strategy must be guided by the nation’s diverse voices and ways of knowing, in order to maximize effective and equitable stewardship of the ocean’s diverse life and its benefits to people. The strategy is intended as a guiding document for government to advance three overarching goals: ● Goal 1: Drive delivery of ocean biodiversity knowledge at the national scale. Objectives include developing an Implementation Plan for achieving the strategy’s three goals; establishing a coordination mechanism to manage the implementation; and documenting gaps in biodiversity knowledge and the benefits of ocean biodiversity to people and economies. ● Goal 2: Strengthen tools and institutions to deliver ocean biodiversity knowledge. Objectives include establishing a robust information pipeline to support indicators and dynamic maps of ocean biodiversity, from the coasts to the deep sea. This pipeline should include expanded observing systems and comprehensive data management; science and technology solutions to accelerate the availability of biodiversity information; and plans to leverage previous investments to rebuild and expand the nation’s human capital and infrastructure to sustain foundational taxonomy and biodiversity science. ● Goal 3: Protect, conserve, restore, and sustainably use ocean biodiversity. Objectives include expanding the collection, delivery, and use of biodiversity knowledge to inform actions that advance ocean protection, conservation, restoration, and sustainable development. Government should lead in establishing and incentivizing diverse partnerships across scales and sectors to implement those actions and should educate and involve the public to discover and value the nation’s diverse ocean life. Achieving these goals will require commitments across society: new federal and private investments, coordination across sectors to address climate and equity challenges, and engagement of Indigenous Knowledge holders and frontline communities as full partners throughout planning and implementation. The Subcommittee on Ocean Science and Technology (SOST) IWG-Biodiversity will begin developing an Implementation Plan to describe and direct specific actions to implement the strategy. Successful implementation of the strategy will harmonize and expand collection and delivery of timely knowledge on ocean life to all of society. The strategy will also enable evidence-based management and protection of the ocean. Advancing the strategy will build human and institutional capital and partnerships that support both existing mandates and new needs to rebuild and sustain biodiversity, achieve healthy ocean ecosystems, and manage living resources. Implementing the strategy will deliver knowledge for monitoring, modeling, forecasting, and assessments that support food security, public health, and cultural values, and that more effectively protect, conserve, and restore nature.

Report↗

USGS2022

Science mission requirements for a globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel for U.S. Scientific Ocean Drilling

Through the collection and analysis of shallow and deep subseafloor sediments, rocks, fluids, and life, scientific ocean drilling has enriched our understanding of the complex Earth system. Among other achievements, scientific ocean drilling has documented the history of Earth’s climate, the waxing and waning of polar ice sheets, the past changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation, the existence and function of microbial life in the subseafloor, the compositional variations in Earth’s crust and underlying mantle, and the physical and chemical processes acting at subduction zones, including those associated with tsunamigenic earthquakes. Over the decades, more than 12,000 articles that depend on analyses of scientific ocean drilling samples and geophysical data have been published, many detailing breakthrough contributions to global knowledge about the Earth system. Approximately 45% of these publications were led by U.S.-affiliated authors (International Ocean Discovery Program Publication Services, 2021). Since the mid-1980s, the workhorse of this multidisciplinary, international research effort has been the riserless D/V JOIDES Resolution, operated by Texas A&M University with funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation (NSF). D/V JOIDES Resolution has conducted the vast majority of scientific ocean drilling expeditions and collected most of the scientific cores over that period, including 82% of the expeditions and 93% of the cores in the last decade alone, despite being one of three platforms that is operated within the International Ocean Discovery Program. However, D/V JOIDES Resolution is approaching the end of its useful life. With a strong commitment to continue scientific ocean drilling beyond the end of the current phase, the community developed a document outlining the research frontiers that should be pursued. Exploring Earth by Scientific Ocean Drilling: 2050 Science Framework (Koppers and Coggon, 2020) describes seven scientific strategic objectives that focus on understanding interconnections within the Earth system and five flagship initiatives that integrate these objectives into long-term research efforts that address issues facing society. Additional elements in the 2050 Science Framework, including STEM education, workforce development, technology development, and innovative applications of data analytics, will advance the goals of scientific ocean drilling. Addressing the 2050 Science Framework also requires building partnerships with allied U.S. and international science programs and strengthening existing ones. To implement a significant portion of the 2050 Science Framework, the U.S. scientific community seeks to lease or acquire a newly built, globally ranging, state-of-the art, riserless drilling vessel. The many and varied technical and human resources requirements for successful accomplishment of scientific and educational goals summarized in this document and described in detail in the 2050 Science Framework require broad community input and careful consideration. Following receipt of NSF’s formal Request for Assistance to the United States Science Support Program (USSSP), the U.S. scientific ocean drilling community conducted a one-year exercise to identify its national scientific needs and priorities in order to determine the Science Mission Requirements (SMRs) presented here. This community effort included: (1) a U.S. community-wide survey to identify the specific operational and technical capabilities critical to addressing science in the 2050 Science Framework; (2) a series of online workshops focusing on critical capabilities identified by the survey; and (3) a large in-person workshop to synthesize the results of the survey and the virtual workshops (Appendix 1). The approach was designed to reach as many participants as possible. Overall, 278 survey responses were received from U.S. community members, representing 104 unique institutions from 39 states and the District of Columbia, and 137 unique individuals participated in the workshops (Appendix 2). The results of this effort comprise two classes of SMRs: Foundational Science Mission Requirements and Primary Science Mission Requirements. Foundational SMRs define minimum criteria for a new riserless drilling vessel that can address significant portions of the 2050 Science Framework. Primary SMRs build upon the Foundational SMRs and will create more robust science opportunities and data collection capabilities, will increase progress in addressing the 2050 Science Framework objectives, and will provide more real-time ship-to-shore interaction to improve science productivity, engagement, and outreach. Modern safety and environmental standards, including meeting standards to access protected waters such as exclusive economic zones, extended continental shelves, or high latitudes, while being cognizant of the vessel’s environmental footprint. Safe and efficient operations in global locations and in water depths from 70 m to 6000+ m, with total drill string length of at least 7000 m. High-quality core and data collection from a range of key subseafloor environments. Advanced heave compensation, dynamic positioning, and drill pipe stability. Modern mud and cement/casing systems. Critical onboard measurements for safety, operational decision-making, documentation of ephemeral properties, mission-specific science, and long-term science goals that extend beyond a single expedition. Designated and appropriate space for sample and data preservation. Highly skilled onboard personnel, including technical staff for curation and core handling; support for safety, time-sensitive, and critical shipboard measurements; computer support; equipment and instrument repair; application support; and data assurance. Primary Science Mission Requirements include: Flexible shipboard space for laboratories and on deck to ensure safe, successful implementation of diverse science objectives and operations. Minimizing contamination of recovered samples. Over-the-side capabilities for science-supporting technology (e.g., remotely operated vehicles, water- column sampling, sediment-water interface sampling). Downhole logging and measurements. Expanded borehole observatory capabilities. Reliable and consistent ship-to-shore communications. NSF’s investment in a new globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel will have a powerful economic multiplier effect, including the infusion of additional science support funds in the United States for training and research, the development of new technologies and tools, and the associated scientific and technical workforce development. The skills and knowledge gained through scientific ocean drilling are translatable to careers in fields such as sustainable energy development (e.g., geothermal and offshore wind), carbon sequestration, data management and cyberinfrastructure, biotechnology, communications, science education, policy, hazard mitigation, and environmental management. The United States is a leader in a well-established and internationally collaborative scientific ocean drilling community. A modern, globally ranging, riserless drilling vessel will allow the United States to expand its leadership position, address broad scientific questions that current capabilities preclude, and cultivate equitable international, multidisciplinary collaborations that will ensure scientific ocean drilling’s future success.

Report↗

USGS2019

Variability in shelf sedimentation in response to fluvial sediment supply and coastal erosion over the past 1,000 years in Monterey Bay, CA, United States

Continental shelf environments are uniquely situated to capture some of the most dynamic processes on Earth including climatic variability and anthropogenic modifications to coastal systems. Understanding how these processes have affected sediment delivery and accumulation on the shelf in the past may provide insight into potential changes in the future. To address this, we investigated shelf sedimentation within Monterey Bay, California. Sediment cores were collected from four locations throughout the bay to capture both the modern and late Holocene sedimentological record using grain size analysis, and sediment chronologies determined from 210 Pb, 137 Cs, and 14 C. From the grain size results we focused on the total percent sand, and established a Littoral Sand Fraction (LSF) index to assess sediment contribution from the littoral zone as a result coastal erosion. Grain size results from the multicores consistently showed an increase in sand over the past several decades (post 1970s). For the cores located within the bay proximal to three major rivers, the increase in sand corresponded to a general increase in the LSF over the same period. We attributed these trends to increased sediment contributions to the shelf due to accelerated coastal erosion in the region. This accelerated coastal erosion was likely the combined result of dam construction in the mid-twentieth century that limited fluvial supply to the coast, and a shift in climate toward wetter, stormier period. Applying these sediment characteristics back over the past ∼1,000 years we found that dry climatic periods resulted in deposits that were limited in total sand but enriched in littoral material suggesting elevated coastal erosion. During wet periods deposits were enriched in total sand but limited in littoral sand suggesting elevated fluvial supply and low erosion. Compared to the late Holocene record, the previous several decades represent a shift to a new regime, uncharacteristic of deposits over the past millennia, highlighting the impact humans have had on shelf sedimentation.

California↗

USGS2019

Physicochemical models of effusive rhyolitic eruptions constrained with InSAR and DEM data: A case study of the 2011-2012 Cordon Caulle eruption

The 9 month long 2011-2012 eruption of Cordon Caulle (Southern Andes, Chile) is the best instrumentally recorded rhyolitic eruption to date and the first time that the effusion of a rhyolitic flow has been observed in detail. We use Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), with time-lapse DEMs and numerical models to study the dynamics of coupled magma reservoir deflation and lava effusion. InSAR recorded ~2.2-2.5 m of deflation after the first three days of the eruption, which can be modeled using a spheroidal magma reservoir at a depth of ∼5 km, ∼20 km long, and with a pressure drop of ~20-30 MPa. The source is elongated in the NW-SE direction and its large dimensions imply a large plumbing system spanning neighboring volcanoes and active throughout the eruption, with a slight change halfway through the effusive phase. TanDEM-X DEMs record the extrusion of both the rhyolitic lava flow and the intrusion of a shallow laccolith around the eruptive vent, with a total volume of ~1.2 km3 DRE. The laccolith was emplaced during the first month of the eruption, during both the eruption explosive and effusive stages. Both the reservoir pressure drop and the extruded volume time series follow quasi-exponential trends, and can be explained by a model that couples the reservoir pres- sure decrease, time- and pressured ependent variations in the magma properties inside of the reservoir, and conduit flow. This model predicts both the temporal evolution and amplitude of both time series, and a magma compressibility of ∼10^−10 Pa−1, half the compressibility of the magma of the sub-Plinian explosive phase. Further, we estimate that the reservoir contained 1-3 wt.% dissolved H2O at the onset of lava effusion, with no exsolved CO2 and H2O in the reservoir throughout the eruption. This is in accord with a magma that was significantly degassed after the explosive phase. These remaining volatiles might have been responsible for magma fragmentation, consistent with the hybrid explosive and effusive style observed during the waning of the eruption.

Cordón Caulle↗

USGS2003

Rockfall hazard and risk assessment in the Yosemite Valley, California, USA

Rock slides and rock falls are the most frequent types of slope movements in Yosemite National Park, California. In historical time (1857-2002) 392 rock falls and rock slides have been documented in the valley, and some of them have been mapped in detail. We present the results of an attempt to assess rock fall hazards in the Yosemite Valley. Spatial and temporal aspects of rock falls hazard are considered. A detailed inventory of slope movements covering the 145-year period from 1857 to 2002 is used to determine the frequency-volume statistics of rock falls and to estimate the annual frequency of rock falls, providing the temporal component of rock fall hazard. The extent of the areas potentially subject to rock fall hazards in the Yosemite Valley were obtained using STONE, a physically-based rock fall simulation computer program. The software computes 3-dimensional rock fall trajectories starting from a digital elevation model (DEM), the location of rock fall release points, and maps of the dynamic rolling friction coefficient and of the coefficients of normal and tangential energy restitution. For each DEM cell the software calculates the number of rock falls passing through the cell, the maximum rock fall velocity and the maximum flying height. For the Yosemite Valley, a DEM with a ground resolution of 10 ?? 10 m was prepared using topographic contour lines from the U.S. Geological Survey 1:24 000-scale maps. Rock fall release points were identified as DEM cells having a slope steeper than 60??, an assumption based on the location of historical rock falls. Maps of the normal and tangential energy restitution coefficients and of the rolling friction coefficient were produced from a surficial geologic map. The availability of historical rock falls mapped in detail allowed us to check the computer program performance and to calibrate the model parameters. Visual and statistical comparison of the model results with the mapped rock falls confirmed the accuracy of the model. The model results are compared with a previous map of rockfall talus and with a geomorphic assessment of rock fall hazard based on potential energy referred to as a shadow angle approach, recently completed for the Yosemite Valley. The model results are then used to identify the roads and trails more subject to rock fall hazard. Of the 166.5 km of roads and trails in the Yosemite Valley 31.2% were found to be potentially subject to rock fall hazard, of which 14% are subject to very high hazard. ?? European Geosciences Union 2003.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS2016

Holocene climate changes in eastern Beringia (NW North America) – A systematic review of multi-proxy evidence

Reconstructing climates of the past relies on a variety of evidence from a large number of sites to capture the varied features of climate and the spatial heterogeneity of climate change. This review summarizes available information from diverse Holocene paleoenvironmental records across eastern Beringia (Alaska, westernmost Canada and adjacent seas), and it quantifies the primary trends of temperature- and moisture-sensitive records based in part on midges, pollen, and biogeochemical indicators (compiled in the recently published Arctic Holocene database, and updated here to v2.1). The composite time series from these proxy records are compared with new summaries of mountain-glacier and lake-level fluctuations, terrestrial water-isotope records, sea-ice and sea-surface-temperature analyses, and peatland and thaw-lake initiation frequencies to clarify multi-centennial- to millennial-scale trends in Holocene climate change. To focus the synthesis, the paleo data are used to frame specific questions that can be addressed with simulations by Earth system models to investigate the causes and dynamics of past and future climate change. This systematic review shows that, during the early Holocene (11.7–8.2 ka; 1 ka = 1000 cal yr BP), rather than a prominent thermal maximum as suggested previously, temperatures were highly variable, at times both higher and lower than present (approximate mid-20th-century average), with no clear spatial pattern. Composited pollen, midge and other proxy records average out the variability and show the overall lowest summer and mean-annual temperatures across the study region during the earliest Holocene, followed by warming over the early Holocene. The sparse data available on early Holocene glaciation show that glaciers in southern Alaska were as extensive then as they were during the late Holocene. Early Holocene lake levels were low in interior Alaska, but moisture indicators show pronounced differences across the region. The highest frequency of both peatland and thaw-lake initiation ages also occurred during the early Holocene. During the middle Holocene (8.2–4.2 ka), glaciers retreated as the regional average temperature increased to a maximum between 7 and 5 ka, as reflected in most proxy types. Following the middle Holocene thermal maximum, temperatures decreased starting between 4 and 3 ka, signaling the onset of Neoglacial cooling. Glaciers in the Brooks and Alaska Ranges advanced to their maximum Holocene extent as lakes generally rose to modern levels. Temperature differences for averaged 500-year time steps typically ranged by 1–2 °C for individual records in the Arctic Holocene database, with a transition to a cooler late Holocene that was neither abrupt nor spatially coherent. The longest and highest-resolution terrestrial water isotope records previously interpreted to represent changes in the Aleutian low-pressure system around this time are here shown to be largely contradictory. Furthermore, there are too few records with sufficient resolution to identify sub-centennial-scale climate anomalies, such as the 8.2 ka event. The review concludes by suggesting some priorities for future paleoclimate research in the region.

Quaternary Science Reviews↗

USGS2019

Holocene thermokarst lake dynamics in northern Interior Alaska: The interplay of climate, fire, and subsurface hydrology

The current state of permafrost in Alaska and meaningful expectations for its future evolution are informed by long-term perspectives of previous permafrost degradation. Thermokarst processes in permafrost landscapes often lead to widespread lake formation and the spatial and temporal evolution of thermokarst lake landscapes reflects the combined effects of climate, ground conditions, vegetation, and fire. This study provides detailed analyses of thermokarst lake sediments of Holocene age from the southern loess uplands of the Yukon Flats; including bathymetry and sediment core analyses across a water depth transect. The sediment core results, dated by radiocarbon and 210Pb, indicate the onset of finely laminated lacustrine sedimentation between ~10,000 and 9,000 cal yr BP following basin development through inferred thermokarst processes. Thermokarst expansion to modern shoreline configurations continued until ~5000 cal yr BP, which may have been influenced by increased fire. Between ~5000 and 2000 cal yr BP, the preservation of fine laminations at intermediate and deep-water depths indicate higher lake levels than present. At that time, the lake likely overflowed into an over-deepened gully system that is no longer occupied by perennial streams. By ~2000 cal yr BP, massive sedimentation at intermediate water depths indicates that lake levels lowered, which is interpreted to reflect a response to drier conditions based on correspondence with Yukon Flats regional fire and local paleoclimate reconstructions. Consideration of additional contributing mechanisms include the possible influence of catastrophic lake drainages on downgradient base flow levels that may have enhanced subsurface water loss, although this mechanism is untested. The overall consistency between the millennial lake level trends documented here with regional paleoclimate trends indicates that after lakes formed, their size and depth has likely been affected directly by North Pacific atmospheric circulation changes and indirectly through evolution of permafrost, ground ice and sub-surface hydrology. As the first detailed study of Holocene thermokarst basin expansion, stabilization and subsequent climate-driven lake level variations in a loess upland, results provide a framework for future investigations of paleoclimatic signals from similar lake systems that characterize large regions of Alaska and Siberia.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Dynamics of an open basaltic magma system: The 2008 activity of the Halema‘uma‘u Overlook vent, Kīlauea Caldera

On March 19, 2008 a small explosive event accompanied the opening of a 35-m-wide vent (Overlook vent) on the southeast wall of Halema‘uma‘u Crater in Kīlauea Caldera, initiating an eruptive period that extends to the time of writing. The peak of activity, in 2008, consisted of alternating background open-system outgassing and spattering punctuated by sudden, short-lived weak explosions, triggered by collapses of the walls of the vent and conduit. Near-daily sampling of the tephra from this open system, along with exceptionally detailed observations, allow us to study the dynamics of the activity during two eruptive sequences in late 2008. Each sequence includes background activity preceding and following one or more explosions in September and October 2008 respectively. Componentry analyses were performed for daily samples to characterise the diversity of the ejecta. Nine categories of pyroclasts were identified in all the samples, including wall-rock fragments. The six categories of juvenile clasts can be grouped in three classes based on vesicularity: (1) poorly, (2) uniformly highly to extremely, and (3) heterogeneously highly vesicular. The wall-rock and juvenile clasts show dissimilar grainsize distributions, reflecting different fragmentation mechanisms. The wall-rock particles formed by failure of the vent and conduit walls above the magma free surface and were then passively entrained in the eruptive plume. The juvenile componentry reveals consistent contrasts in degassing and fragmentation processes before, during and after the explosive events. We infer a crude ‘layering’ developed in the shallow melt, in terms of both rheology and bubble and volatile contents, beneath a convecting free surface during background activity. A tens-of-centimetres thick viscoelastic surface layer was effectively outgassed and relatively cool, while at depths of less than 100 m, the melt remained slightly supersaturated in volatiles and actively vesiculating. Decoupled metre-sized bubbles rising through the column burst through the free surface frequently, ejecting fragments of the outgassed upper layer. When the surface was abruptly perturbed by the rock-falls, existing mm-sized bubbles expanded, leading to the acceleration of adjacent melt upward and consecutive explosions, while renewed nucleation created a minor population of 10-micron-sized bubbles. After each explosive event in September–October 2008, this layering was re-established but with decreasing vigour, suggesting that the magma batch as a whole was becoming progressively depleted in dissolved volatiles.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2018

Unraveling the dynamics of magmatic CO2 degassing at Mammoth Mountain, California

The accumulation of magmatic CO 2 beneath low-permeability barriers may lead to the formation of CO 2 -rich gas reservoirs within volcanic systems. Such accumulation is often evidenced by high surface CO 2 emissions that fluctuate over time. The temporal variability in surface degassing is believed in part to reflect a complex interplay between deep magmatic degassing and the permeability of degassing pathways. A better understanding of the dynamics of CO 2 degassing is required to improve monitoring and hazards mitigation in these systems. Owing to the availability of long-term records of CO 2 emissions rates and seismicity, Mammoth Mountain in California constitutes an ideal site towards such predictive understanding. Mammoth Mountain is characterized by intense soil CO 2 degassing (up to ∼1000 t d −1 ) and tree kill areas that resulted from leakage of CO 2 from a CO 2 -rich gas reservoir located in the upper ∼4 km. The release of CO 2 -rich fluids from deeper basaltic intrusions towards the reservoir induces seismicity and potentially reactivates faults connecting the reservoir to the surface. While this conceptual model is well-accepted, there is still a debate whether temporally variable surface CO 2 fluxes directly reflect degassing of intrusions or variations in fault permeability. Here, we report the first large-scale numerical model of fluid and heat transport for Mammoth Mountain. We discuss processes (i) leading to the initial formation of the CO 2 -rich gas reservoir prior to the occurrence of high surface CO 2 degassing rates and (ii) controlling current CO 2 degassing at the surface. Although the modeling settings are site-specific, the key mechanisms discussed in this study are likely at play at other volcanic systems hosting CO 2 -rich gas reservoirs. In particular, our model results illustrate the role of convection in stripping a CO 2 -rich gas phase from a rising hydrothermal fluid and leading to an accumulation of a large mass of CO 2 (∼10 7 –10 8 t) in a shallow gas reservoir. Moreover, we show that both, short-lived (months to years) and long-lived (hundreds of years) events of magmatic fluid injection can lead to critical pressures within the reservoir and potentially trigger fault reactivation. Our sensitivity analysis suggests that observed temporal fluctuations in surface degassing are only indirectly controlled by variations in magmatic degassing and are mainly the result of temporally variable fault permeability. Finally, we suggest that long-term CO 2 emission monitoring, seismic tomography and coupled thermal–hydraulic–mechanical modeling are important for CO 2 -related hazard mitigation.

California↗

USGS2014

Three-dimensional imaging, change detection, and stability assessment during the centerline trench levee seepage experiment using terrestrial light detection and ranging technology, Twitchell Island, California, 2012

A full scale field seepage test was conducted on a north-south trending levee segment of a now bypassed old meander belt on Twitchell Island, California, to understand the effects of live and decaying root systems on levee seepage and slope stability. The field test in May 2012 was centered on a north-south trench with two segments: a shorter control segment and a longer seepage test segment. The complete length of the trench area measured 40.4 meters (m) near the levee centerline with mature trees located on the waterside and landside of the levee flanks. The levee was instrumented with piezometers and tensiometers to measure positive and negative porewater pressures across the levee after the trench was flooded with water and held at a constant hydraulic head during the seepage test—the results from this component of the experiment are not discussed in this report. We collected more than one billion three-dimensional light detection and ranging (lidar) data points before, during, and after the centerline seepage test to assess centimeter-scale stability of the two trees and the levee crown. During the seepage test, the waterside tree toppled (rotated 20.7 degrees) into the water. The landside tree rotated away from the levee by 5 centimeters (cm) at a height of 2 m on the tree. The paved surface of the levee crown had three regions that showed subsidence on the waterside of the trench—discussed as the northern, central, and southern features. The northern feature is an elongate region that subsided 2.1 cm over an area with an average width of 1.35 m that extends 15.8 m parallel to the trench from the northern end of the trench to just north of the trench midpoint, and is associated with a crack 1 cm in height that formed during the seepage test on the trench wall. The central subsidence feature is a semicircular region on the waterside of the trench that subsided by as much as 6.2 cm over an area 3.4 m wide and 11.2 m long. The southern feature is an elongate region that has a maximum subsidence of 3.5 cm over an area 0.75 m wide and 8.1 m long and is associated with a number of small fractures in the pavement that are predominately north-south-trending and parallel to the trench. We determined that there was no significant motion of the levee flank during the last week of the seepage test. We also determined biomorphic parameters for the landside tree, such as the 3D positioning on the levee, tree height, levee parallel/perpendicular cross sectional area, and canopy centroid. These biomorphic parameters were requested to support a University of California Berkeley team studying seepage and stability on the levee. A gridded, 2-cm bare-earth digital elevation model of the levee crown and the landside levee flank from the final terrestrial lidar (T-Lidar) survey provided detailed topographic data for future assessment. Because the T-Lidar was not integrated into the project design, other than an initial courtesy dataset to help characterize the levee surface, our ability to contribute to the overall science goals of the seepage test was limited. Therefore, our analysis focused on developing data collection and processing methodology necessary to align ultra high-resolution T-Lidar data (with an average spot spacing 2–3 millimeters on the levee crown) from several instrument setup locations to detect, measure, and characterize dynamic centimeter-scale deformation and surface changes during the seepage test.

California↗

USGS2026

Understanding the resource potential of natural hydrogen on Earth: Scientific gaps, uncertainties and recommendations

A comprehensive scientific research roadmap is essential to bridge knowledge gaps and deepen the understanding of key geological, geochemical, and geophysical aspects of natural hydrogen (H 2 ) as a potential new energy resource. This paper reviews major scientific uncertainties on natural H 2 , suggesting research priorities, as a guide for defining exploration strategies, techniques, and data interpretation. The uncertainties concern all phases of the natural H 2 cycle, from generation (source rocks) through migration (advection and diffusion) and accumulation (reservoir and cap rocks) to the application and interpretation of subsurface and surface geochemical and geophysical exploration techniques. Understanding H 2 sources and generation rates (the amount of H 2 generated by a given volume of rock over time) is crucial for determining whether a geological H 2 system operates as a short-term dynamic system with rapid H 2 production and release, or as a conventional gas system with long-term accumulations, analogous to petroleum reservoirs. Preliminary estimates for serpentinisation, radiolysis, and organic matter degradation suggest that H 2 generation is not inherently fast, especially for non-hydrothermal continental systems (crystalline basement of shields, ophiolites, peridotite massifs, sedimentary basins), and long-term accumulations, like those of fossil natural gas systems, represent the most likely scenario. The mechanisms of H 2 migration through geological formations require application of fundamental principles of fluid-flow physics, distinguishing advection and diffusion, as well as their forms (from gas-phase, bubble flows to aqueous solutions). Additional studies of H 2 accumulation and retention in subsurface reservoirs could improve understanding of mechanisms of H 2 migration by focusing on the rock fluid-bearing properties and the factors affecting H 2 preservation, such as the presence of cap rocks impermeable to H 2 , pressure conditions, residence times, and microbial or abiotic consumption. Advanced techniques, including reservoir modelling, flow simulations, 3D imaging (micro-CT) of H 2 -bearing rocks, and extraction and analysis of gas occluded in rocks, can provide insights into the stability and potential recoverability of H 2 accumulations. The interpretation of surface exploration techniques, including gas geochemistry, geophysics, and remote sensing, long employed in mineral and energy resource exploration, is now being adapted for natural H 2 studies, but challenges remain in the data interpretation. Distinguishing H 2 seepage due to geological degassing from H 2 produced near the surface by modern microbial processes or artificial sources, such as hammering or drilling for soil-gas sampling, drilling into aquifers, and corrosion in boreholes, is an essential step in exploration. The simple detection of H 2 in soils, even in morphological structures like sub-circular depressions or “fairy circles”, cannot be cursorily interpreted as a signal of natural H 2 seepage from a deep source. A holistic geochemical approach, including isotopic analyses of gases associated with H 2 , is recommended to distinguish among the variety of possible H 2 origins. Observations of H 2 in wells should be interrogated to rule out possible artifacts such as corrosion and drill bit metamorphism. The integration of multiple geophysical methods, including seismic, gravimetric, magnetic, and electro-magnetic surveys, is recommended to mitigate interpretation ambiguities regarding the structure of a subsurface H 2 system (source and reservoir rocks, including fluid and gas storage), due to the non-uniqueness of rock-specific physical properties.

Earth-Science Reviews↗

USGS2014

Resolving terrestrial ecosystem processes along a subgrid topographic gradient for an earth-system model

Soil moisture is a crucial control on surface water and energy fluxes, vegetation, and soil carbon cycling. Earth-system models (ESMs) generally represent an areal-average soil-moisture state in gridcells at scales of 50–200 km and as a result are not able to capture the nonlinear effects of topographically-controlled subgrid heterogeneity in soil moisture, in particular where wetlands are present. We addressed this deficiency by building a subgrid representation of hillslope-scale topographic gradients, TiHy (Tiled-hillslope Hydrology), into the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) land model (LM3). LM3-TiHy models one or more representative hillslope geometries for each gridcell by discretizing them into land model tiles hydrologically coupled along an upland-to-lowland gradient. Each tile has its own surface fluxes, vegetation, and vertically-resolved state variables for soil physics and biogeochemistry. LM3-TiHy simulates a gradient in soil moisture and water-table depth between uplands and lowlands in each gridcell. Three hillslope hydrological regimes appear in non-permafrost regions in the model: wet and poorly-drained, wet and well-drained, and dry; with large, small, and zero wetland area predicted, respectively. Compared to the untiled LM3 in stand-alone experiments, LM3-TiHy simulates similar surface energy and water fluxes in the gridcell-mean. However, in marginally wet regions around the globe, LM3-TiHy simulates shallow groundwater in lowlands, leading to higher evapotranspiration, lower surface temperature, and higher leaf area compared to uplands in the same gridcells. Moreover, more than four-fold larger soil carbon concentrations are simulated globally in lowlands as compared with uplands. We compared water-table depths to those simulated by a recent global model-observational synthesis, and we compared wetland and inundated areas diagnosed from the model to observational datasets. The comparisons demonstrate that LM3-TiHy has the capability to represent some of the controls of these hydrological variables, but also that improvement in parameterization and input datasets are needed for more realistic simulations. We found large sensitivity in model-diagnosed wetland and inundated area to the depth of conductive soil and the parameterization of macroporosity. With improved parameterization and inclusion of peatland biogeochemical processes, the model could provide a new approach to investigating the vulnerability of Boreal peatland carbon to climate change in ESMs.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences↗

USGS2015

Discussion and Review of “Seismology of the Oso-Steelhead landslide” by Hibert, Stark, and Ekstrom

In this study, Hibert et al. use the seismic waves generated by the disastrous 22 March 2014 landslide near Oso, Washington to investigate the dynamics of the event by combining long-period source inversions and short period analysis. Overall the paper is concise and well written and takes an innovative approach by integrating both high- and low-frequency seismic data together in the interpretation. It also demonstrates the useful prospect of resolving a trajectory of the center of mass of the landslide from a few traces of noisy seismic data. However, the main point of discussion that I would like to address stems from differences between the findings by Hibert et al. and the findings of a recently published multidisciplinary paper on the Oso landslide (Iverson et al., 2015). I am a co-author on the paper and performed the seismic analysis, which was similar to that of Hibert et al., yet the interpretation of how the event unfolded differs significantly between the two papers. In my opinion, this stems largely from a difference in information, some of which Hibert et al. unfortunately did not have access to prior to submission because it was just published in Iverson et al. (2015). However, differences also seem to stem from technical details of the methods and data used. Typically, such details are only of interest to seismologists, but in this case they make a substantial difference in understanding how the event unfolded and how it became so disastrous. For that reason, they are worthy of discussion here. The crux of the difference lies in two points 1) Iverson et al. (2015) found a multi-stage initiation of the main event, while Hibert et al. did not and 2) Iverson et al. (2015) found the second high-frequency event to be from a significantly smaller debris fall whereas Hibert et al. estimate it to be a substantial mass. I detail these two points below, then follow with an additional comment regarding the trajectory estimation made by Hibert et al. and some minor comments.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences↗