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Investigating hydrologic alteration under historical and future scenarios in the Mobile River and Perdido River basins using the cubist algorithm

This study investigates the impacts of human activities and climate variability on hydrologic alterations in the Mobile River and Perdido River Basins of Alabama. The research uses a machine learning approach, specifically cubist models, to quantify and predict changes in flow duration curves (FDCs) under both historical (1980–2009) and future climate scenarios. Future climate projections include the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2 4.5 and SSP5 8.5), evaluated for two future periods: 1980–2069 and 1980–2099. The models incorporate a wide range of covariates, including basin geomorphology, aquifer characteristics, land cover, water storage, environmental factors, solar radiation, census data, and water use data. Under the baseline period (1980–2009), most level 12 hydrologic unit codes (HUC12s) in both basins showed alterations, with substantial differences observed between pre- and post-alteration FDCs. The model performance varied, with a Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency between 0.91 and 0.95 for testing and between 0.98 and 0.99 for training during the baseline period. Future projections under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios generally differed significantly from baseline conditions across all flow regimes ( p < 0.05). In contrast, SSP2 4.5 showed comparatively limited statistical significance, while SSP5 8.5 exhibited significant departures from baseline conditions across all flow regimes, reflecting the greater influence of high-emissions climate forcing on projected hydrologic alterations. Overall, the RCP scenarios projected more widespread statistically significant changes than the corresponding SSP scenarios at the same forcing level, particularly when comparing RCP4.5 with SSP2-4.5, while both RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5 consistently indicated greater hydrologic alterations than their moderate-emissions counterparts. These findings highlight the importance of considering different flow regimes when assessing the impacts of climate variability on streamflow. This study contributes to the understanding of hydrologic alterations in the Mobile River and Perdido River Basins, providing insights for water resource management and ecological conservation efforts in the region.

Alabama↗

Seroprevalence, blood chemistry, and patterns of canine parvovirus, distemper virus, plague, and tularemia in free-ranging coyotes (Canis latrans) in northern New Mexico, USA.

Wildlife diseases have implications for ecology, conservation, human health, and health of domestic animals. They may impact wildlife health and population dynamics. Exposure rates of coyotes ( Canis latrans ) to pathogens such as Yersinia pestis , the cause of plague, may reflect prevalence rates in both rodent prey and human populations. We captured coyotes in north-central New Mexico during 2005–2008 and collected blood samples for serologic surveys. We tested for antibodies against canine distemper virus (CDV, Canine morbillivirus ), canine parvovirus (CPV, Carnivore protoparvovirus ), plague, tularemia ( Francisella tularensis ), and for canine heartworm ( Dirofilaria immitis ) antigen. Serum biochemistry variables that fell outside reference ranges were probably related to capture stress. We detected antibodies to parvovirus in 32/32 samples (100%), and to Y. pestis in 26/31 (84%). More than half 19/32 (59%) had antibodies against CDV, and 5/31 (39%) had antibodies against F. tularensis . We did not detect any heartworm antigens ( n = 9). Pathogen prevalence was similar between sexes and among the three coyote packs in the study area. Parvovirus exposure appeared to happen early in life, and prevalence of antibodies against CDV increased with increasing age class. Exposure to Y. pestis and F. tularensis occurred across all age classes. The high coyote seroprevalence rates observed for CPV, Y. pestis , and CDV may indicate high prevalence in sympatric vertebrate populations, with implications for regional wildlife conservation as well as risk to humans via zoonotic transmission.

New Mexico↗

Spatial capture-recapture

Spatial Capture-Recapture provides a revolutionary extension of traditional capture-recapture methods for studying animal populations using data from live trapping, camera trapping, DNA sampling, acoustic sampling, and related field methods. This book is a conceptual and methodological synthesis of spatial capture-recapture modeling. As a comprehensive how-to manual, this reference contains detailed examples of a wide range of relevant spatial capture-recapture models for inference about population size and spatial and temporal variation in demographic parameters. Practicing field biologists studying animal populations will find this book to be a useful resource, as will graduate students and professionals in ecology, conservation biology, and fisheries and wildlife management.

Book↗

Assessing the vulnerability of human and biological communities to changing ecosystem services using a GIS-based multi-criteria decision support tool

In this paper we describe an application of a GIS-based multi-criteria decision support web tool that models and evaluates relative changes in ecosystem services to policy and land management decisions. The Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio (SCWEPM) was designed to provide credible forecasts of responses to ecosystem drivers and stressors and to illustrate the role of land use decisions on spatial and temporal distributions of ecosystem services within a binational (U.S. and Mexico) watershed. We present two SCWEPM sub-models that when analyzed together address bidirectional relationships between social and ecological vulnerability and ecosystem services. The first model employs the Modified Socio-Environmental Vulnerability Index (M-SEVI), which assesses community vulnerability using information from U.S. and Mexico censuses on education, access to resources, migratory status, housing situation, and number of dependents. The second, relating land cover change to biodiversity (provisioning services), models changes in the distribution of terrestrial vertebrate habitat based on multitemporal vegetation and land cover maps, wildlife habitat relationships, and changes in land use/land cover patterns. When assessed concurrently, the models exposed some unexpected relationships between vulnerable communities and ecosystem services provisioning. For instance, the most species-rich habitat type in the watershed, Desert Riparian Forest, increased over time in areas occupied by the most vulnerable populations and declined in areas with less vulnerable populations. This type of information can be used to identify ecological conservation and restoration targets that enhance the livelihoods of people in vulnerable communities and promote biodiversity and ecosystem health.

Santa Cruz watershed↗

Autumn monitoring of resident avifauna on Guana Island, British Virgin Islands

Although the Caribbean region is considered a biodiversity hotspot and a priority for ecological conservation efforts, little information exists on population trends of West Indian landbirds. We combined avian survey data collected from three studies spanning a 16-year period on a small island with a minimal human presence in the British Virgin Islands. Although abundances varied among surveys, the same species were detected with rare exceptions. Despite stability in species composition, the resident landbirds were variable in their individual detectabilities. Survey detections relatively mirrored net captures for some species, but are quite different for others. We suspect that this is likely due to differences in detectability due to species-specific behaviors mediated by environmental conditions, such as rainfall, during the month or months prior to our surveys. It is difficult to assess the influence of timing or amount of precipitation on bird detections rates among our surveys due to a lack of consistent collection of location-specific weather data in the British Virgin Islands. Our study suggests monitoring efforts conducted in concert with collection of site-specific climate data would facilitate improved interpretation of survey data and a better understanding of avian species response to climate mediated changes.

Ornitologia Neotropical↗

Quantifying the relative contribution of an ecological reserve to conservation objectives

Evaluating the role public lands play in meeting conservation goals is an essential step in good governance. We present a tool for comparing the regional contribution of each of a suite of wildlife management units to conservation goals. We use weighted summation ( simple additive weighting ) to compute a Unit Contribution Index ( UCI ) based on species richness, population abundance, and a conservation score based on IUCN Red List classified threat levels. We evaluate UCI for a subset of the 729 participating wetlands of the Integrated Waterbird Management and Monitoring (IWMM) Program across U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Regions 3 (Midwest USA), 4 (Southeast USA), and 5 (Northeast USA). We found that the median across-Region UCI for Region 5 was greater than Regions 3 and 4, while Region 4 had the greatest within-Region UCI median. This index is a powerful tool for wildlife managers to evaluate the performance of units within the conservation estate.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

Hawai‘i forest review: Synthesizing the ecology, evolution, and conservation of a model system

As the most remote archipelago in the world, the Hawaiian Islands are home to a highly endemic and disharmonic biota that has fascinated biologists for centuries. Forests are the dominant terrestrial biome in Hawai‘i, spanning complex, heterogeneous climates across substrates that vary tremendously in age, soil structure, and nutrient availability. Species richness is low in Hawaiian forests compared to other tropical forests, as a consequence of dispersal limitation from continents and adaptive radiations in only some lineages, and forests are dominated by the widespread Metrosideros species complex. Low species richness provides a relatively tractable model system for studies of community assembly, local adaptation, and species interactions. Moreover, Hawaiian forests provide insights into predicted patterns of evolution on islands, revealing that while some evidence supports “island syndromes,” there are exceptions to them all. For example, Hawaiian plants are not as a whole less defended against herbivores, less dispersible, more conservative in resource use, or more slow-growing than their continental relatives. Clearly, more work is needed to understand the drivers, sources, and constraints on phenotypic variation among Hawaiian species, including both widespread and rare species, and to understand the role of this variation for ecological and evolutionary processes, which will further contribute to conservation of this unique biota. Today, Hawaiian forests are among the most threatened globally. Resource management failures – the proliferation of non-native species in particular – have led to devastating declines in native taxa and resulted in dominance by novel species assemblages. Conservation and restoration of Hawaiian forests now rely on managing threats including climate change, ongoing species introductions, novel pathogens, lost mutualists, and altered ecosystem dynamics through the use of diverse tools and strategies grounded in basic ecological, evolutionary, and biocultural principles. The future of Hawaiian forests thus depends on the synthesis of ecological and evolutionary research, which will continue to inform future conservation and restoration practices.

Hawaii↗

Bright spots for advancing ecological understanding and conservation decision-making

A lot can be learned by studying bright spots—defined as unexpected positive outcomes. In fields like public health, education, and oncology, identifying factors behind bright spots reveals previously unknown drivers of success that can be replicated elsewhere. This concept is being applied in conservation but is hampered by variations in definitions of bright spots and confusion with hotspots—sites with high absolute values of a metric. We developed a framework to clearly define and distinguish between hotspots (e.g., a wetland with high plant diversity) and bright spots (e.g., a biodiverse wetland in a housing development), which outperform conservation expectations. The framework is an iterative cycle, consisting of setting expectations for relative comparisons, classifying systems into bright, dark, hot, and cold categories, and digging deeper to reveal hidden mechanisms and opportunities for intervention. We drew on examples from diverse fields to demonstrate how our framework can generate new knowledge, identify potential interventions, and inform management priorities. Defining conservation and management expectations, often through predictive models, is essential to understanding drivers of success and fosters hypotheses about overlooked factors. Our framework can enhance ecological understanding, guide interventions, and help prioritize actions in conservation and natural resource management.

Conservation Biology↗

Social–ecological mismatches create conservation challenges in introduced species management

Introduced species can have important effects on the component species and processes of native ecosystems. However, effective introduced species management can be complicated by technical and social challenges. We identify “social–ecological mismatches” (that is, differences between the scales and functioning of interacting social and ecological systems) as one such challenge. We present three case studies in which mismatches between the organization and functioning of key social and ecological systems have contributed to controversies and debates surrounding introduced species management and policy. We identify three common issues: social systems and cultures may adapt to a new species’ arrival at a different rate than ecosystems; ecological impacts can arise at one spatial scale while social impacts occur at another; and the effects of introduced species can spread widely, whereas management actions are constrained by organizational and/or political boundaries. We propose strategies for collaborative knowledge building and adaptive management that may help address these challenges.

Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment↗

Ecology, behavior, and conservation of the Maui parrotbill

The distribution, habitat response, sexual dimorphism, foraging, breeding, and flocking behavior of Maui Parrotbills (Pseudonestor xanthophrys ) were studied over a five year period. The species' present range is confined to montane rainforest on eastern Maui, but dry lowland habitats on Maui and Molokai were occupied before Polynesian contact. Birds occurred from 1,250 to 2,150 m elevation, becoming most abundant at 1,750 to 2,000 m. In Kipahulu Valley, birds moved to lower elevations in some seasons. Birds tended to forage in the subcanopy and understory, with 66% of the prey captured 1 to 5 m above ground. Plant species use deviated from expectations based on availability. The most frequent means of prey capture was excavation for timber-boring insects in dead branches on live plants. Foraging accounted for 39% of the diurnal time budget; an average prey item appeared to account for 1% of the daily energy intake. The principal limiting factors appeared to be habitat loss, avian disease, habitat degradation, predation, and competition from exotic species. Control of pig populations is a needed management action.

Condor↗

Ecology, behavior, and conservation of the Poo-uli (Melamprosops phaeosoma)

Studies of the population density, habitat structure, foraging behavior, and activity budgets of the Poo-uli (Melamprosops phaeosoma) were conducted intermittently between 1973 and 1985 in a 50-ha study area in the upper Hanawi watershed, island of Maui, Hawaii. Poo-uli have apparently declined in density on this site by 80% from 1975 to 1981 and by 90% from 1975 to 1985. During this period, pig activity, as indexed by ground cover disturbance, increased 473%. Compared to values in the range of the Poo-uli, pig activity was 9-24 times greater in two adjacent out-of-range areas. Poo-uli most frequently foraged from 4-7 m height on ohia (Metrosideros polymorpha), olapa (Cheirodendron trigynum), ohelo (Vaccinium calycinum), and kanawao (Broussaisia arguta) in decreasing frequency; feeding on kanawao was significantly more frequent than random expectation. Chief food items were land snails and insects. Most prey were captured on branches from under moss, lichen, and bark by gleaning, probing, and pecking. Birds spent 48% of their daylight hours foraging and 30% quietly perching. Poo-uli frequently formed small mixed-species flocks, usually with Maui Creepers (Puroreomyza montana), that probably facilitated predator avoidance and foraging efficiency. The major limiting factors at present appear to be habitat modification from feral pigs (Sus scrofa), predation, avian disease, interspecific competition from the introduced garlic snail (Oxychilus alliarius), and possibly gene pool impoverishment. Control of pigs is recommended.

The Wilson Bulletin↗

Protected areas as social-ecological systems: perspectives from resilience and social-ecological systems theory

Conservation biology and applied ecology increasingly recognize that natural resource management is both an outcome and a driver of social, economic, and ecological dynamics. Protected areas offer a fundamental approach to conserving ecosystems, but they are also social-ecological systems whose ecological management and sustainability are heavily influenced by people. This editorial, and the papers in the invited feature that it introduces, discuss three emerging themes in social-ecological systems approaches to understanding protected areas: (1) the resilience and sustainability of protected areas, including analyses of their internal dynamics, their effectiveness, and the resilience of the landscapes within which they occur; (2) the relevance of spatial context and scale for protected areas, including such factors as geographic connectivity, context, exchanges between protected areas and their surrounding landscapes, and scale dependency in the provision of ecosystem services; and (3) efforts to reframe what protected areas are and how they both define and are defined by the relationships of people and nature. These emerging themes have the potential to transform management and policy approaches for protected areas and have important implications for conservation, in both theory and practice.

Ecological Applications↗

A typology of time-scale mismatches and behavioral interventions to diagnose and solve conservation problems

Ecological systems often operate on time scales significantly longer or shorter than the time scales typical of human decision making, which causes substantial difficulty for conservation and management in socioecological systems. For example, invasive species may move faster than humans can diagnose problems and initiate solutions, and climate systems may exhibit long-term inertia and short-term fluctuations that obscure learning about the efficacy of management efforts in many ecological systems. We adopted a management-decision framework that distinguishes decision makers within public institutions from individual actors within the social system, calls attention to the ways socioecological systems respond to decision makers’ actions, and notes institutional learning that accrues from observing these responses. We used this framework, along with insights from bedeviling conservation problems, to create a typology that identifies problematic time-scale mismatches occurring between individual decision makers in public institutions and between individual actors in the social or ecological system. We also considered solutions that involve modifying human perception and behavior at the individual level as a means of resolving these problematic mismatches. The potential solutions are derived from the behavioral economics and psychology literature on temporal challenges in decision making, such as the human tendency to discount future outcomes at irrationally high rates. These solutions range from framing environmental decisions to enhance the salience of long-term consequences, to using structured decision processes that make time scales of actions and consequences more explicit, to structural solutions aimed at altering the consequences of short-sighted behavior to make it less appealing. Additional application of these tools and long-term evaluation measures that assess not just behavioral changes but also associated changes in ecological systems are needed.

Conservation Biology↗

Evolutionary and ecological connectivity in westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi) and mountain whitefish (Prosopium williamsoni) in relation to the potential influences of Boundary Dam, Washington, Idaho, and parts of British Columbia

In this report, we consider evolutionary and ecological connectivity for westslope cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii lewisi ) and mountain whitefish ( Prosopium williamsoni ) within the Pend Oreille River in northeastern Washington State, northern Idaho, and adjacent portions of southeastern British Columbia, Canada. Specifically, we focused on the rationale for active translocation of individuals of these species upstream from Boundary Dam both in the context of natural patterns of pre-dam evolutionary connectivity as well as preserving contemporary ecological and evolutionary characteristics of local extant populations. Boundary Dam impounds the Pend Oreille River (called the Pend d’Oreille River in Canada) with the resulting reservoir inundating two historical barriers to upstream movement of fish (Metaline Falls and Z Canyon). Historically, it was thought these barriers impeded the upstream movement of westslope cutthroat trout and mountain whitefish, as well as Pacific salmon ( Oncorhynchus spp.), steelhead trout ( O. mykiss ), and other resident species such as bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ). To address connectivity, we consider historical and contemporary processes and features. This review includes an assessment of postglacial processes within the Pend Oreille River and systems upstream that include Priest Lake, Lake Pend Oreille, the Clark Fork River, features of Boundary Reservoir and its tributaries, and areas downstream in the Pend Oreille River such as the Salmo River. Based on this information, we then give a more detailed review of existing genetic and ecological data to summarize what is known about connectivity for westslope cutthroat trout and mountain whitefish. Our assessment of the collective evidence leads us to conclude that moving fish upstream over Boundary Dam is not warranted if the management objective is to maintain natural patterns of evolutionary and ecological connectivity or to conserve unique ecological and evolutionary characteristics of extant local populations of these species in the system. These findings parallel that of a previous analysis of bull trout. Although we were able to arrive at well-supported conclusions in relation to Boundary Dam, we suggest that more work on connectivity further upstream in the Pend Oreille River would help to better understand the role of historical processes and dams further up in the system.

British Columbia, Idaho, Washington↗