Geology Reports⌕ Search

SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Climate of the Past”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
USGS2005

A 40,000-year woodrat-midden record of vegetational and biogeographical dynamics in north-eastern Utah

Aim A conspicuous climatic and biogeographical transition occurs at 40-45° N in western North America. This pivot point marks a north–south opposition of wet and dry conditions at interannual and decadal time-scales, as well as the northern and southern limits of many dominant western plant species. Palaeoecologists have yet to focus on past climatic and biotic shifts along this transition, in part because it requires comparisons across dissimilar records [i.e. pollen from lacustrine sediments to the north and plant macrofossils from woodrat ( Neotoma ) middens to the south]. To overcome these limitations, we are extending the woodrat-midden record northward into the lowlands of the central Rocky Mountains. Location Woodrat middens were collected from crevices and rock shelters on south-facing slopes of Dutch John Mountain (2000-2200 m, 40°57′ N, 109°25′ W), situated on the eastern flanks of the Uinta Mountains in north-eastern Utah. The site is near the regional limits for Pinus ponderosa, P. edulis, P. contorta, Cercocarpus ledifolius var. intricatus, Abies concolor, Ephedra viridis and other important western species. Methods We analysed pollen and plant macrofossils from the 40,000-year midden sequence. The middens represent brief, depositional episodes (mostly years to decades). Four middens represent the early to full-glacial period (40,000–18,000 cal-yr bp), eight middens are from the late-glacial/early Holocene transition (13,500–9000 cal yr bp), and 33 middens span the mid-to-late Holocene (last 7500 years). Temporal density of our Holocene middens (one every c. 210 years) is comparable with typical Holocene pollen sequences from lake sediments. Results Early to full-glacial assemblages are characterized by low diversity and occurrence of montane conifers ( Picea pungens, Pseudotsuga menziesii, P. flexilis, Juniperus communis ) absent from the site today. Diversity increases in the late-glacial samples with the addition of J. scopulorum, J. horizontalis, C. montanus, C. ledifolius var. intricatus and mesic understory species. The coniferous trees and J. communis declined and J. osteosperma appeared during the late-glacial/Holocene transition. Juniperus osteosperma populations have occupied the site throughout the Holocene. Pinus ponderosa was established by 7500 cal-yr bp, and has occurred at least locally ever since. Montane conifers and J. horizontalis persisted until c. 5500 cal-yr bp. The signature events of the late Holocene were the invasions of P. edulis and Ephedra viridis and establishment of pinyon–juniper woodland in the last 800 years. Main conclusions The Dutch John Mountain midden record adds to an emerging picture in which mid-elevation conifers ( P. flexilis, Pseudotsuga menziesii, Picea pungens, J. scopulorum, J. communis ) dominated vegetation over a wide area of the Colorado Plateau and adjacent Rocky Mountains. Rather than being fragmented, as often assumed in phylogeographical studies, these species had broader and more-connected distributions than they do in the region today. Paradoxically, subalpine conifers ( Picea engelmannii, A. lasiocarpa ) occurred at higher elevations to the south, possibly representing declining precipitation from south to north owing to southward displacement of the polar jet stream. The Dutch John Mountain record displays a series of extinction and invasion events. Most of the extinctions were local in scale; nearly all constituents of fossil midden assemblages occur within a few kilometres of Dutch John Mountain, and some occur at least locally on its slopes. The sole exception is J. horizontalis , which is regionally extinct. In contrast to extinctions, Holocene invasions were regional in scale; J. osteosperma, P. ponderosa, P. edulis and Ephedra viridis immigrated from glacial-age source populations far to the south.

Utah↗
USGS2020

Digging into the geologic record of environmentally driven changes in coral-reef development

This lesson uses data based on real-world geological archives to guide students toward understanding how climate and oceanography have impacted coral-reef growth over the last 5000 years. The objective of the lesson is for students to determine the relationship between environmental variability and coral-reef development over millennial timescales. In this activity, students will: 1. Characterize the species composition and condition of coral reefs from different time periods in the past using cores of reef architecture 2. Calculate the rate of calcium carbonate accretion (production) of the reefs during those past time intervals 3. Reconstruct trends in past climatic conditions using a mock data-set.

Oceanography↗
USGS2012

Bioenergetic response by steelhead to variation in diet, thermal habitat, and climate in the north Pacific Ocean

Energetic responses of steelhead Oncorhynchus mykiss to climate-driven changes in marine conditions are expected to affect the species’ ocean distribution, feeding, growth, and survival. With a unique 18-year data series (1991–2008) for steelhead sampled in the open ocean, we simulated interannual variation in prey consumption and growth efficiency of steelhead using a bioenergetics model to evaluate the temperature-dependent growth response of steelhead to past climate events and to estimate growth potential of steelhead under future climate scenarios. Our results showed that annual ocean growth of steelhead is highly variable depending on prey quality, consumption rates, total consumption, and thermal experience. At optimal growing temperatures, steelhead can compensate for a low-energy diet by increasing consumption rates and consuming more prey, if available. Our findings suggest that steelhead have a narrow temperature window in which to achieve optimal growth, which is strongly influenced by climate-driven changes in ocean temperature.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗
USGS2017

Paleoceanographic perspectives on Arctic Ocean change

The Arctic Ocean is presently experiencing changes in ocean temperature and sea ice extent that are unprecedented in the observational time period (satellite observations: 1979-Present). To provide context for the current changes, scientists turn to paleo records of past climate to document and study natural variability in the Arctic system. Paleoceanographic records that extend limited Arctic instrumental measurements are central to improving our understanding of sea ice dynamics and ocean warming and for enhancing the predictive capability of models. By coupling paleoceanographic records with modern observations, scientists can also contextualize the rate and magnitude of modern change with the deep past.

Arctic Report Card↗
USGS1999

Quantitative paleoclimatic reconstructions from late Pleistocene plant macrofossils of the Yucca Mountain region

Plant macrofossil assemblages recovered from packrat (Neotoma) middens of late Pleistocene age from the present-day Mojave Desert of southern Nevada contain plant species that today live at higher elevations and/or farther north than the midden collection sites. Previous reconstructions of late Pleistocene climates from packrat midden assemblages in this region (Spaulding, 1985) assessed the minimum climatic differences from today by estimating the present-day climatic differences between the fossil midden sites and the nearest current occurrences of key plant species recovered from the Pleistocene middens. From this approach Spaulding (1985) concluded that although late Pleistocene temperatures were considerably below those of today, only modest increases in precipitation (relative to today) were necessary for these plant species to survive in the current Mojave Desert during the late Pleistocene. Spaulding's approach provided "state-of-the-art" results from an intensive careful examination of the best data available at the time. However, data and techniques developed since the mid-1980s suggest that there are two possible short-comings to this approach: 1) the use of lowest elevational and (frequently) most southerly occurrences of key plant species results in minimal estimates of the differences between Pleistocene and present-day climates, and 2) the instrumental climate data set available to Spaulding was limited in duration, non-standard in its method of collection, and indicated a modern climate wetter than the long-term historic mean, which resulted in relatively small apparent differences between late Pleistocene and present-day mean annual precipitation levels. In this report we use a more standard (close to the long-term mean) modern calibration period and a modern plant distribution data set that permits us to identify modern analogues for the Pleistocene vegetation. This reexamination permits a more robust reconstruction of the past climate, and results in estimates of mean annual temperature for the glacial maximum at Yucca Mountain that are 1.0° to 1.4° C warmer than those of Spaulding, and estimates of mean annual precipitation that are 60 mm or more higher than his.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2010

Tapping environmental history to recreate America's colonial hydrology

Throughout American history water resources have played integral roles in shaping patterns of human settlement and networks of biological and economic exchange. In turn, humans have altered hydrologic systems to meet their needs. A paucity of climate and water discharge data for the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries, however, has left America's preindustrial hydrology largely unstudied. As a result, there have been few detailed, quantifiable, regional assessments of hydrologic change between the time of first European settlement and the dawn of industrial expansion. As scientists labor to understand present-day hydrologic systems and make predictions about the future, the value of expanding the geographic (1, 2) and temporal scopes (3, 4) of their studies has become increasingly evident. Pollen and tree-ring analyses have helped shed light on past climate and land-use patterns. But other nonscientific sources and methods can be equally revealing and in some cases complement empirical studies (5). This paper argues that environmental science, particularly that concerned with the human dimensions of water resources, stands to profit from using historical literature and archival sources. By considering work in environmental history, forging closer working relationships between the geophysical and social sciences, and seriously entertaining narratives as a form of evidence, environmental scientists can not only look farther into the past and across broader geographic areas, but they can also more accurately describe the nuances and complexities that define the ways humans have changed the world around them. In this paper, we present the recommendations of a multidisciplinary summer institute that developed 1) a conceptual and methodological framework for conducting historical hydrology, and 2) suggestions for ways that historical information can be used to inform the hydrologic sciences. Our intent here is to encourage further work along these or similar lines. We believe that future efforts that build on our famework and draw and expand upon the sources referenced below will produce scholarship of great utility to both environmental and social sciences.

Environmental Science & Technology↗
USGS2011

Planet-wide sand motion on mars

Prior to Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter data, images of Mars showed no direct evidence for dune and ripple motion. This was consistent with climate models and lander measurements indicating that winds of sufficient intensity to mobilize sand were rare in the low-density atmosphere. We show that many sand ripples and dunes across Mars exhibit movement of as much as a few meters per year, demonstrating that Martian sand migrates under current conditions in diverse areas of the planet. Most motion is probably driven by wind gusts that are not resolved in global circulation models. A past climate with a thicker atmosphere is only required to move large ripples that contain coarse grains.

Geology↗
USGS2015

Uranium isotopes and dissolved organic carbon in loess permafrost: Modeling the age of ancient ice

The residence time of ice in permafrost is an indicator of past climate history, and of the resilience and vulnerability of high-latitude ecosystems to global change. Development of geochemical indicators of ground-ice residence times in permafrost will advance understanding of the circumstances and evidence of permafrost formation, preservation, and thaw in response to climate warming and other disturbance. We used uranium isotopes to evaluate the residence time of segregated ground ice from ice-rich loess permafrost cores in central Alaska. Activity ratios of 234 U vs. 238 U ( 234 U/ 238 U) in water from thawed core sections ranged between 1.163 and 1.904 due to contact of ice and associated liquid water with mineral surfaces over time. Measured ( 234 U/ 238 U) values in ground ice showed an overall increase with depth in a series of five neighboring cores up to 21 m deep. This is consistent with increasing residence time of ice with depth as a result of accumulation of loess over time, as well as characteristic ice morphologies, high segregated ice content, and wedge ice, all of which support an interpretation of syngenetic permafrost formation associated with loess deposition. At the same time, stratigraphic evidence indicates some past sediment redistribution and possibly shallow thaw among cores, with local mixing of aged thaw waters. Using measures of surface area and a leaching experiment to determine U distribution, a geometric model of ( 234 U/ 238 U) evolution suggests mean ages of up to ∼200 ky BP in the deepest core, with estimated uncertainties of up to an order of magnitude. Evidence of secondary coatings on loess grains with elevated ( 234 U/ 238 U) values and U concentrations suggests that refinement of the geometric model to account for weathering processes is needed to reduce uncertainty. We suggest that in this area of deep ice-rich loess permafrost, ice bodies have been preserved from the last glacial period (10–100 ky BP), despite subsequent fluctuations in climate, fire disturbance and vegetation. Radiocarbon ( 14 C) analysis of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in thaw waters supports ages greater than ∼40 ky BP below 10 m. DOC concentrations in thaw waters increased with depth to maxima of >1000 ppm, despite little change in ice content or cryostructures. These relations suggest time-dependent production of old DOC that will be released upon permafrost thaw at a rate that is mediated by sediment transport, among other factors.

Alaska↗
USGS2009

Introduction to paleoenvironments of Bear Lake, Utah and Idaho, and its catchment

In 1996 a group led by the late Kerry Kelts (University of Minnesota) and Robert Thompson (U.S. Geological Survey) acquired three piston cores (BL96-1, -2, and -3) from Bear Lake. The coring arose from their recognition of Bear Lake as a potential repository of long records of paleoenvironmental change. They recognized that the lake is located in an area that is sensitive to changes in regional climate patterns (Dean et al., this volume), that the lake basin is long lived (see Colman, 2006; Kaufman et al., this volume), and that, unlike many lakes in the Great Basin, Bear Lake was never dry during warm dry periods. Bear Lake lies in the northeastern Great Basin to the northeast of Great Salt Lake, just south of the Snake River drainage, and a short distance west of the Green River drainage that makes up part of the Upper Colorado River Basin (Fig. 1). Similarity among the historic Bear Lake and Great Salt Lake hydrographs and flows on the Green River indicates that the hydrology of Bear Lake reflects regional precipitation (Fig. 2). Therefore, paleorecords from Bear Lake are important to understanding past climate for a large region, including the Upper Colorado River Basin, the source of much of the water for the southwestern United States. Initially, paleoenvironmental studies of Bear Lake sediments focused on cores BL96-1, -2, and -3. Additional coring was conducted to elucidate the spatial distribution of sedimentary units and to extend the record back in time. The study was also expanded to include extensive study of the catchment, including the properties of catchment materials and the processes that could potentially affect the delivery of catchment materials to the lake. Cores BL96-1, -2, and -3 were taken with a Kullenburg piston corer along an east–west profile in roughly 50, 40, and 30 m of water, respectively (Table 1, Fig. 3). These three cores, each taken as a single 4- to 5-m-long segment, provide a nearly complete composite section from ca. 26 cal ka to the late Holocene. In 1998 a number of short gravity cores were taken from the uppermost water-rich sediments that were not sampled by the 1996 cores. During 2000, cores were taken with a percussion piston corer (manufactured by UWITEC) at three locations in and around Mud Lake and at two locations in the northern end of Bear Lake (Fig. 3). Cores acquired with the percussion corer comprise as many as three overlapping segments up to 2 m in length. In 2002, additional percussion piston cores and associated gravity cores of the uppermost sediments were acquired from five sites in the northern half of the lake. In conjunction with two of the cores collected in 2000, these cores form a north–south profile along a seismic line and span water depths from less than 10 m to ~40 m. Data from this profile provide much of the evidence for lake-level variations (Smoot and Rosenbaum, this volume). Finally, during 2000, two long cores, BL00-1D and -1E (collectively referred to here simply as BL00-1), were taken at a site near the depocenter during testing of the GLAD800 coring platform (Fig. 4; Dean et al., 2002). These cores provide a record back to ca. 220 ka.

Idaho;Utah;Wyoming↗
USGS2019

Geographic variation in the intensity of warming and phenological mismatch between Arctic shorebirds and invertebrates

Responses to climate change can vary across functional groups and trophic levels, leading to a temporal decoupling of trophic interactions or ‘phenological mismatches.’ Despite a growing number of single-species studies that identified phenological mismatches as a nearly universal consequence of climate change, we have a limited understanding of the spatial variation in the intensity of this phenomenon nor what influences this variation. In this study, we tested for geographic patterns in phenological mismatches between six species of shorebirds and their invertebrate prey at ten sites spread across ~13º latitude and ~84º longitude in the Arctic over three years. At each site, we quantified the phenological mismatch between shorebirds and their invertebrate prey at: 1) an individual nest level, as the difference in days between the seasonal peak in food and the peak demand by chicks, and 2) a population level, as the overlapped area under fitted curves for total daily biomass of invertebrates and dates of the peak demand by chicks. We tested whether the intensity of past climatic change observed at each site corresponded with the extent of phenological mismatch and used Structural Equation Modeling to test for causal relationships among: 1) environmental factors, including geographic location and current climatic conditions, 2) the timing of invertebrate emergence and the breeding phenology of shorebirds, and 3) the phenological mismatch between the two trophic levels. The extent of phenological mismatch varied more among different sites than among different species within each site. A greater extent of phenological mismatch at both the individual-nest and population-levels coincided with changes in the timing of snowmelt as well as the potential dissociation of long-term snow phenology from changes in temperature. The timing of snowmelt also affected the shape of the food and demand curves, which determined the extent of phenological mismatch at the population level. Finally, we found larger mismatches at more easterly longitudes, which may be affecting the population dynamics of shorebirds, as two of our study species show regional population declines in only the eastern part of their range. This suggests that phenological mismatches may be resulting in demographic consequences for arctic-nesting birds.

Alaska↗
USGS2021

Quantifying diagenesis, contributing factors, and resulting isotopic bias in benthic foraminifera using the Foraminiferal Preservation Index: Implications for geochemical proxy records

Geochemical records generated from the calcite tests of benthic foraminifera, especially those of the genera Cibicidoides and Uvigerina , provide the basis for proxy reconstructions of past climate. However, the extent to which benthic foraminifera are affected by postdepositional alteration is poorly constrained. Furthermore, how diagenesis may alter the geochemical composition of benthic foraminiferal tests, and thereby biasing a variety of proxy-based climate records, is also poorly constrained. We present the Foraminiferal Preservation Index (FPI) as a new metric to quantify preservation quality based on objective, well-defined criteria. The FPI is used to identify and quantify trends in diagenesis temporally, from late Pliocene to modern coretop samples (3.3–0 Ma), as well as spatially in the deep ocean. The FPI identifies the chemical composition of deep-ocean water masses to be the primary driver of diagenesis through time, while also serving as a supplementary method of identifying periods of changing water mass influence at a given site. Additionally, we present stable isotope data (δ 18 O, δ 13 C) generated from individual Cibicidoides specimens of various preservation quality that demonstrate the likelihood of significant biasing in a variety of geochemical proxy records, especially those used to reconstruct past changes in ice volume and sea level. These single-test data further demonstrate that when incorporating carefully selected tests of only the highest preservation quality, robust paleorecords can be generated.

Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology↗
USGS2021

Oxygen isotopes in terrestrial gastropod shells track Quaternary climate change in the American Southwest

Recent studies have shown the oxygen isotopic composition (δ 18 O) of modern terrestrial gastropod shells is determined largely by the δ 18 O of precipitation. This implies that fossil shells could be used to reconstruct the δ 18 O of paleo-precipitation as long as the isotopic system, including the hydrologic pathways of the local watershed and the gastropod systematics, is well understood. In this study, we measured the δ 18 O values of 456 individual gastropod shells collected from paleowetland deposits in the San Pedro Valley, Arizona that range in age from ca. 29.1 to 9.8 ka. Isotopic differences of up to 2‰ were identified among the four taxa analyzed (Succineidae, Pupilla hebes , Gastrocopta tappaniana , and Vallonia gracilicosta ), with Succineidae shells yielding the highest values and V . gracilicosta shells exhibiting the lowest values. We used these data to construct a composite isotopic record that incorporates these taxonomic offsets, and found shell δ 18 O values increased by ~4‰ between the last glacial maximum and early Holocene, which is similar to the magnitude, direction, and rate of isotopic change recorded by speleothems in the region. These results suggest the terrestrial gastropods analyzed here may be used as a proxy for past climate in a manner that is complementary to speleothems, but potentially with much greater spatial coverage.

Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah↗
USGS2023

Impacts of spontaneous waterfall development on bedrock river longitudinal profile morphology

River profiles are shaped by climatic and tectonic history, lithology, and internal feedbacks between flow hydraulics, sediment transport and erosion. In steep channels, waterfalls may self-form without changes in external forcing (i.e., autogenic formation) and erode at rates faster or slower than an equivalent channel without waterfalls. We use a 1-D numerical model to investigate how self-formed waterfalls alter the morphology of bedrock river longitudinal profiles. We modify the standard stream power model to include a slope threshold above which waterfalls spontaneously form and a rate constant allowing waterfalls to erode faster or slower than other fluvial processes. Using this model, we explore how waterfall formation alters both steady state and transient longitudinal profile forms. Our model predicts that fast waterfalls create km-scale reaches in a dynamic equilibrium with channel slope held approximately constant at the threshold slope for waterfall formation, while slow waterfalls can create local channel slope maxima at the location of slow waterfall development. Furthermore, slow waterfall profiles integrate past base level histories, leading to multiple possible profile forms, even at steady-state. Consistency between our model predictions and field observations of waterfall-rich rivers in the Kings and Kaweah drainages in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, supports the hypothesis that waterfall formation can modulate river profiles in nature. Our findings may help identify how bedrock channels are influenced by waterfall erosion and aid in distinguishing between signatures of external and internal perturbations, thereby strengthening our ability to interpret past climate and tectonic changes from river longitudinal profiles.

Journal of Geophysical Research - Earth Surface↗
USGS1961

Botanical Evidence of the Modern History of Nisqually Glacier, Washington

A knowledge of the areas once occupied by mountain glaciers reveals at least part of the past behavior of these glaciers. From this behavior, inferences of past climate can be drawn. The maximum advance of Nisqually Glacier in the last thousand years was located, and retreat from this point is believed to have started about 1840. The maximum downvalley position of the glacier is marked by either a prominent moraine or by a line of difference between stands of trees of strikingly different size and significantly different age. The thousand-year age of the forest beyond the moraine or line between abutting stands represents the minimum time since the surface was glaciated. This age is based on the age of the oldest trees, plus an estimated interval required for the formation of humus, plus evidence of an ancient fire, plus an interval of deposition of pyroclastics. The estimate of the date when Nisqually Glacier began to retreat from its maximum advance is based upon the ages of the oldest trees plus an interval of 5 years estimated as the time required for the establishment of trees on stable moraines. This interval was derived from a study of the ages of trees growing at locations of known past positions of the glacier. Reconnaissance studies were made on moraines formed by Emmons and Tahoma Glaciers. Preliminary analyses of these data suggest that Emmons Glacier started to recede from its maximum advance in about 1745. Two other upvalley moraines mark positions from which recession started about 1849 and 1896. Ages of trees near Tahoma Glacier indicate that it started to recede from its position of maximum advance in about 1635. About 1835 Tahoma Glacier started to recede again from another moraine formed by a readvance that ter minated near the 1635 position.

Professional Paper↗
USGS2002

The influence of climatic variability on local population dynamics of Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde)

This study investigated correlations among climatic variability, population age structure, and seedling survival of a dominant Sonoran Desert tree, Cercidium microphyllum (foothill paloverde), at Tucson, Arizona, USA. A major goal was to determine whether wet years promote seedling establishment and thereby determine population structure. Plant age was estimated from basal circumference for a sample of 980 living and dead trees in twelve 0.5-ha plots. Ages ranged from 1 to 181 years. Age frequency distribution showed that the population is in decline. Most (51.2%) of the 814 living trees were 40–80 years old; only 6.5% were younger than 20 years. The average age of the 166 dead trees was 78 years. Fifty-nine percent of dead trees were aged 60–100 years. Survival of newly emerged seedlings was monitored for 7 years in a 557-m 2 permanent plot. Mean survival in the 1st year of life was 1.7%. Only 2 of 1,008 seedlings lived longer than 1 year. Length of survival was not correlated with rainfall. Residual regeneration, an index of the difference between predicted and observed cohort size, showed that regeneration was high during the first half of the twentieth century and poor after the mid-1950s. Trends in regeneration did not reflect interannual variation in seasonal temperature or rain before 1950, that is, in the years before urban warming. Taken together, the seedling study and the regeneration analysis suggest that local population dynamics reflect biotic factors to such an extent that population age structure might not always be a reliable clue to past climatic influences.

Oecologia↗
USGS2021

Precipitation-runoff processes in the Merced River Basin, Central California, with prospects for streamflow predictability, water years 1952–2013

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), has constructed a new spatially detailed Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) model for the Merced River Basin, California, which is a tributary of the San Joaquin River in California. Operated through an Object User Interface (OUI) with Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) and daily climate distribution preprocessing functionality, the model is calibrated primarily to simulate (and eventually, forecast) year-to-year variations of inflows to Lake McClure during the critical April–July snowmelt season. The model is intended to become part of a suite of methods used by DWR for estimating daily streamflow from the Merced River Basin, especially during the snowmelt season. This study describes the results of the application of an analysis tool that simulates responses to climate and land-use variations at a higher spatial resolution than previously available to DWR. A geographic information system was used to delineate the model domain, that is, areas draining to a single outlet at U.S. Geological Survey streamflow-gaging station 11270900, Merced River below Merced Falls Dam, near Snell, CA (also known as California Data Exchange Center station MRC), and subdrainage areas, including four draining to internal gages used as calibration targets. Using this delineation, three contiguous subbasins were recognized and, along with the model domain and nested calibration targets, are the simulation units evaluated in this report. An auto-calibration tool, LUCA (Let Us CAlibrate), was used for each calibration node, from headwaters to basin outlet, and then parameters were manually adjusted to complete the calibration. The main objective was to match April–July snowmelt seasonal discharge values of simulated streamflow to observed (measured or reconstructed) discharge values. Calibration or validation periods used site-specific streamflows—mostly from October 1, 1988, through September 30, 2013—but differed according to the period-of-record available for the measurements collected at internal gages or reconstructed flows for the single outlet. The accuracy of the Merced PRMS streamflow simulations varied seasonally, as compared to observed values. Based on statistical results, the Merced PRMS model satisfactorily simulated snowmelt seasonal streamflows. April–July calibrations for all areas had small negative bias (not greater than 7 percent) and low relative error (less than 8 percent). Less satisfactory performance for other seasons was attributed to several factors: (1) high uncertainty in low or zero flows in summer and fall, (2) lack of accounting for basin withdrawals and anthropogenic water use, (3) unavailability and (or) inaccuracy of observed (measured) meteorological input data, and (4) uncertainty in reconstructed streamflow data. With some additional refinement, the Merced PRMS model may be used for forecasting seasonal and longer-term streamflow variations; evaluating forecasted and past climate and land cover changes; providing water-resource managers with a consistent and documented method for estimating streamflow at ungaged sites within the basin; and aiding environmental studies, hydraulic design, water management, and water-quality projects in the Merced River Basin.

California↗
USGS2017

Gulf Coast vulnerability assessment: Mangrove, tidal emergent marsh, barrier islands and oyster reef

Climate, sea level rise, and urbanization are undergoing unprecedented levels of combined change and are expected to have large effects on natural resources—particularly along the Gulf of Mexico coastline (Gulf Coast). Management decisions to address these effects (i.e., adaptation) require an understanding of the relative vulnerability of various resources to these stressors. To meet this need, the four Landscape Conservation Cooperatives along the Gulf partnered with the Gulf of Mexico Alliance to conduct this Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment (GCVA). Vulnerability in this context incorporates exposure and sensitivity to threats (potential impact), coupled with the adaptive capacity to mitigate those threats. Potential impact and adaptive capacity reflect natural history features of target species and ecosystems. The GCVA used an expert opinion approach to qualitatively assess the vulnerability of four ecosystems: mangrove, oyster reef, tidal emergent marsh, and barrier islands, and a suite of wildlife species that depend on them. More than 50 individuals participated in the completion of the GCVA, facilitated via Ecosystem and Species Expert Teams. Of the species assessed, Kemp’s ridley sea turtle was identified as the most vulnerable species across the Gulf Coast. Experts identified the main threats as loss of nesting habitat to sea level rise, erosion, and urbanization. Kemp’s ridley also had an overall low adaptive capacity score due to their low genetic diversity, and higher nest site fidelity as compared to other assessed species. Tidal emergent marsh was the most vulnerable ecosystem, due in part to sea level rise and erosion. In general, avian species were more vulnerable than fish because of nesting habitat loss to sea level rise, erosion, and potential increases in storm surge. Assessors commonly indicated a lack of information regarding impacts due to projected changes in the disturbance regime, biotic interactions, and synergistic effects in both the species and habitat assessments. Many of the assessors who focused on species also identified data gaps regarding genetic information, phenotypic plasticity, life history, and species responses to past climate change and sea level rise. Regardless of information gaps, the results from the GCVA can be used to inform Gulf-wide adaptation plans. Given the scale of climatic impacts, coordinated efforts to address Gulf-wide threats to species and ecosystems will enhance the effectiveness of management actions and also have the potential to maximize the efficacy of limited funding.

Alabama, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, Texas↗
USGS2015

The Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment: Mangrove, Tidal Emergent Marsh, Barrier Islands, and Oyster Reef

Climate, sea level rise, and urbanization are undergoing unprecedented levels of combined change and are expected to have large effects on natural resources—particularly along the Gulf of Mexico coastline (Gulf Coast). Management decisions to address these effects (i.e., adaptation) require an understanding of the relative vulnerability of various resources to these stressors. To meet this need, the four Landscape Conservation Cooperatives along the Gulf partnered with the Gulf of Mexico Alliance to conduct this Gulf Coast Vulnerability Assessment (GCVA). Vulnerability in this context incorporates the aspects of exposure and sensitivity to threats, coupled with the adaptive capacity to mitigate those threats. Potential impact and adaptive capacity reflect natural history features of target species and ecosystems. The GCVA used an expert opinion approach to qualitatively assess the vulnerability of four ecosystems: mangrove, oyster reef, tidal emergent marsh, and barrier islands, and a suite of wildlife species that depend on them. More than 50 individuals participated in the completion of the GCVA, facilitated via Ecosystem and Species Expert Teams. Of the species assessed, Kemp’s ridley sea turtle was identified as the most vulnerable species across the Gulf Coast. Experts identified the main threats as loss of nesting habitat to sea level rise, erosion, and urbanization. Kemp’s ridley also had an overall low adaptive capacity score due to their low genetic diversity, and higher nest site fidelity as compared to other assessed species. Tidal emergent marsh was the most vulnerable ecosystem, due in part to sea level rise and erosion. In general, avian species were more vulnerable than fish because of nesting habitat loss to sea level rise, erosion, and potential increases in storm surge. Assessors commonly indicated a lack of information regarding impacts due to projected changes in the disturbance regime, biotic interactions, and synergistic effects in both the species and habitat assessments. Many of the assessors who focused on species also identified data gaps regarding genetic information, phenotypic plasticity, life history, and species responses to past climate change and sea level rise. Regardless of information gaps, the results from the GCVA can be used to inform Gulf-wide adaptation plans. Given the scale of climatic impacts, coordinated efforts to address Gulf-wide threats to species and ecosystems will enhance the effectiveness of management actions and also have the potential to maximize the efficacy of limited funding.

Report↗