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USGS2000

Multiple large earthquakes in the past 1500 years on a fault in metropolitan Manila, the Philippines

The first 14 C-based paleoseismic study of an active fault in the Philippines shows that a right-lateral fault on the northeast edge of metropolitan Manila poses a greater seismic hazard than previously thought. Faulted hillslope colluvium, stream-channel alluvium, and debris-flow deposits exposed in trenches across the northern part of the west Marikina Valley fault record two or three surface-faulting events. Three eroded, clay-rich soil B horizons suggest thousands of years between surface faulting events, whereas 14 C ages on detrital charcoal constrain the entire stratigraphic sequence to the past 1300–1700 years. We rely on the 14 C ages to infer faulting recurrence of hundreds rather than thousands of years. Minimal soil development and modern 14 C ages from colluvium overlying a faulted debris-flow deposit in a nearby stream exposure point to a historic age for a probable third or fourth (most recent) faulting event.

Manila↗

USGS2000

Discrepancy between earthquake rates implied by historic earthquakes and a consensus geologic source model for California

We examine the difference between expected earthquake rates inferred from the historical earthquake catalog and the geologic data that was used to develop the consensus seismic source characterization for the state of California [California Department of Conservation, Division of Mines and Geology (CDMG) and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Petersen et al., 1996; Frankel et al., 1996]. On average the historic earthquake catalog and the seismic source model both indicate about one M 6 or greater earthquake per year in the state of California. However, the overall earthquake rates of earthquakes with magnitudes (M) between 6 and 7 in this seismic source model are higher, by at least a factor of 2, than the mean historic earthquake rates for both southern and northern California. The earthquake rate discrepancy results from a seismic source model that includes earthquakes with characteristic (maximum) magnitudes that are primarily between M 6.4 and 7.1. Many of these faults are interpreted to accommodate high strain rates from geologic and geodetic data but have not ruptured in large earthquakes during historic time. Our sensitivity study indicates that the rate differences between magnitudes 6 and 7 can be reduced by adjusting the magnitude-frequency distribution of the source model to reflect more characteristic behavior, by decreasing the moment rate available for seismogenic slip along faults, by increasing the maximum magnitude of the earthquake on a fault, or by decreasing the maximum magnitude of the background seismicity. However, no single parameter can be adjusted, consistent with scientific consensus, to eliminate the earthquake rate discrepancy. Applying a combination of these parametric adjustments yields an alternative earthquake source model that is more compatible with the historic data. The 475-year return period hazard for peak ground and 1-sec spectral acceleration resulting from this alternative source model differs from the hazard resulting from the standard CDMG-USGS model by less than 10% across most of California but is higher (generally about 10% to 30%) within 20 km from some faults.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2000

Post-Mazama (7 KA) faulting beneath Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon

High-resolution seismic-reflection profiles (3.5 kHz) show that a distinctive, widespread reflection occurs in the sediments beneath Upper Klamath Lake, Oregon. Coring reveals that this reflection is formed by Mazama tephra (MT), about 7 ka in age. The MT horizon is faulted in many places and locally displaced by as much as 3.1 m. Differential displacement of multiple horizons indicates recurrent fault movement, perhaps three episodes since deposition of the Mazama. The pattern of faulting indicates northeast-southwest extension beneath the lake basin.

Oregon↗

USGS2001

Correlation of ground motion and intensity for the 17 January 1994 Northridge, California, earthquake

We analyze the correlations between intensity and a set of groundmotion parameters obtained from 66 free-field stations in Los Angeles County that recorded the 1994 Northridge earthquake. We use the tagging intensities from Thywissen and Boatwright (1998) because these intensities are determined independently on census tracts, rather than interpolated from zip codes, as are the modified Mercalli isoseismals from Dewey et al. (1995). The ground-motion parameters we consider are the peak ground acceleration (PGA), the peak ground velocity (PGV), the 5% damped pseudovelocity response spectral (PSV) ordinates at 14 periods from 0.1 to 7.5 sec, and the rms average of these spectral ordinates from 0.3 to 3 sec. Visual comparisons of the distribution of tagging intensity with contours of PGA, PGV, and the average PSV suggest that PGV and the average PSV are better correlated with the intensity than PGA. The correlation coefficients between the intensity and the ground-motion parameters bear this out: r = 0.75 for PGA, 0.85 for PGV, and 0.85 for the average PSV. Correlations between the intensity and the PSV ordinates, as a function of period, are strongest at 1.5 sec (r = 0.83) and weakest at 0.2 sec (r = 0.66). Regressing the intensity on the logarithms of these ground-motion parameters yields relations I ?? mlog?? with 3.0 ??? m ??? 5.2 for the parameters analyzed, where m = 4.4 ?? 0.7 for PGA, 3.4 ?? 0.4 for PGV, and 3.6 ?? 0.5 for the average PSV.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2000

The use of waveform shapes to automatically determine earthquake focal depth

Earthquake focal depth is an important parameter for rapidly determining probable damage caused by a large earthquake. In addition, it is significant both for discriminating between natural events and explosions and for discriminating between tsunamigenic and nontsunamigenic earthquakes. For the purpose of notifying emergency management and disaster relief organizations as well as issuing tsunami warnings, potential time delays in determining source parameters are particularly detrimental. We present a method for determining earthquake focal depth that is well suited for implementation in an automated system that utilizes the wealth of broadband teleseismic data that is now available in real time from the global seismograph networks. This method uses waveform shapes to determine focal depth and is demonstrated to be valid for events with magnitudes as low as approximately 5.5.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2000

Paleoearthquake recurrence on the East Paradise fault zone, metropolitan Albuquerque, New Mexico

A fortuitous exposure of the East Paradise fault zone near Arroyo de las Calabacillas has helped us determine a post-middle Pleistocene history for a long-forgotten Quaternary fault in the City of Albuquerque, New Mexico. Mapping of two exposures of the fault zone allowed us to measure a total vertical offset of 2.75 m across middle Pleistocene fluvial and eolian deposits and to estimate individual surface-faulting events of about 1, 0.5, and 1.25 m. These measurements and several thermoluminescence ages allow us to calculate a long-term average slip rate of 0.01 ± 0.001 mm/yr and date two surface-faulting events to 208 ± 25 ka and 75 ± 7 ka. The youngest event probably occurred in the late Pleistocene, sometime after 75 ± 7 ka. These data yield a single recurrence interval of 133 ± 26 ka and an average recurrence interval of 90 ± 10 ka. However, recurrence intervals are highly variable because the two youngest events occurred in less than 75 ka. Offsets of 0.5-1.25 m and a fault length of 13-20 km indicate that surface-rupturing paleoearthquakes on the East Paradise fault zone had probable M s or M w magnitudes of 6.8-7.0. Although recurrence intervals are long on the East Paradise fault zone, these data are significant because they represent some of the first published slip rate, paleoearthquake magnitude, and recurrence information for any of the numerous Quaternary faults in the rapidly growing Albuquerque-Rio Rancho metropolitan area.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2000

The 1998 earthquake sequence south of Long Valley Caldera, California: Hints of magmatic involvement

A significant episode of seismic and geodetic unrest took place at Long Valley Caldera, California, beginning in the summer of 1997. Activity through late May of 1998 was concentrated in and around the south moat and the south margin of the resurgent dome. The Sierran Nevada block (SNB) region to the south/southeast remained relatively quiet until a M 5.1 event occurred there on 9 June 1998 (UT). A second M 5.1 event followed on 15 July (UT); both events were followed by appreciable aftershock sequences. An additional, distinct burst of activity began on 1 August 1998. The number of events in the August sequence (over the first week or two) was similar to the aftershock sequence of the 15 July 1998 M 5.1 event, but the later sequence was not associated with any events larger than M 4.3. All of the summer 1998 SNB activity was considered tectonic rather than magmatic; in general the SNB is considered an unlikely location for future eruptions. However, the August sequence-an 'aftershock sequence without a mainshock'- is suggestive of a strain event larger than the cumulative seismotectonic strain release. Moreover, a careful examination of waveforms from the August sequence reveals a small handful of events whose spectral signature is strikingly harmonic. We investigate the waveforms of these events using spectral, autocorrelation, and empirical Green's function techniques and conclude that they were most likely associated with a fluid-controlled source. Our observations suggest that there may have been some degree of magma or magma-derived fluid involvement in the 1998 SNB sequence.

California↗

USGS2000

High-resolution seismic reflection surveys and modeling across an area of high damage from the 1994 Northridge earthquake, Sherman Oaks, California

Approximately 3.6 km of P-wave seismic-reflection data were acquired along two orthogonal profiles in Sherman Oaks, California to determine whether shallow (less than 1-km depth) geologic structures contributed to the dramatic localized damage resulting from the 1994 Northridge earthquake. Both lines, one along Matilija Avenue and one along Milbank Street, crossed areas of both high and low damage. We believe these data reveal a geologic structure in the upper 600 m that contributed to the increased earthquake ground shaking in the high-damage areas south of and along the Los Angeles River. Of interest in these data is a reflection interpreted to be from bedrock that can be traced to the north along the Matilija Avenue profile. This reflecting interface, dipping northward at 15°–22°, may be an important impedance boundary because it is the lower boundary of a wedge of overlying low-velocity sediments. The wedge thins and terminates in the area where we interpret down-warped reflections as evidence of a shallow subbasin. The low-velocity subbasin sediments (V s of 200 m/sec V p of 500 m/sec) may be up to 150 m thick beneath the channelized Los Angeles River. The area across the subbasin experienced greater earthquake damage from possible geometric focusing effects. Three-dimensional basin effects may be responsible for the variable damage pattern, but from these seismic profiles it is not possible to determine the regional structural trends. Two-dimensional elastic and SH-mode finite-difference modeling of the imaged structural geometry along Matilija Avenue suggests that a peak horizontal-velocity amplification factor of two-and-over can be explained in the high-damage area above the shallow subbasin and sediment wedge. Amplification factors up to 5 were previously observed in aftershock data, at frequencies of 2 to 6 Hz. Amplification in the elastic simulation at the Santa Monica Mountains range-front on the southern end of the Matilija profile, with the geologic layering and geometry interpreted from the seismic data, is also consistent with aftershock observations.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2000

Seismicity of California's north coast

At least three moment magnitude (M) 7 earthquakes occurred along California's north coast in the second half of the nineteenth century. The M 7.3 earthquake on 23 November 1873 occurred near the California-Oregon coast and likely was located on the Cascadia subduction zone or within the North American plate. The M 7.0 + earthquake on 9 May 1878 was located about 75 km offshore near the Mendocino fault. The surface-wave magnitude (M(s)) 7.0 earthquake on 16 April 1899 was located about 150 km offshore within the Gorda plate. There were at least three M 7 north-coast earthquakes in the 35 years before 1906, two M 7 earthquakes in the 20 years after 1906, no M 7 earthquakes from 1923 until 1980, and four M 7 earthquakes since 1980. The relative seismic quiescence after 1906 for M 7 earthquakes along California's north coast mimics the post-1906 seismic quiescence in the San Francisco Bay area for M 6 earthquakes. The post-1906 relative quiescence did not extend to lower magnitudes in either area. The 18 April 1906 earthquake apparently influenced the rate of occurrence of M 7 north-coast earthquakes as it apparently influenced the rate of M 6 earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area. The relative seismic quiescence along the California north-coast region after 1906 should be taken into account when evaluating seismic hazards in northwest California.

California↗

USGS2000

Three-dimensional simulations of ground motions in the Seattle region for earthquakes in the Seattle fault zone

We used the 3D finite-difference method to model observed seismograms of two earthquakes (ML 4.9 and 3.5) in the Seattle region and to simulate ground motions for hypothetical M 6.5 and M 5.0 earthquakes on the Seattle fault, for periods greater than 2 sec. A 3D velocity model of the Seattle Basin was constructed from studies that analyzed seismic-reflection surveys, borehole logs, and gravity and aeromagnetic data. The observations and the simulations highlight the importance of the Seattle Basin on long-period ground motions. For earthquakes occurring just south of the basin, the edge of the basin and the variation of the thickness of the Quaternary deposits in the basin produce much larger surface waves than expected from flat-layered models. The data consist of seismograms recorded by instruments deployed in Seattle by the USGS and the University of Washington (UW). The 3D simulation reproduces the peak amplitude and duration of most of the seismograms of the June 1997 Bremerton event (ML 4.9) recorded in Seattle. We found the focal mechanism for this event that best fits the observed seismograms in Seattle by combining Green's functions determined from the 3D simulations for the six fundamental moment couples. The February 1997 event (ML 3.5) to the south of the Seattle Basin exhibits a large surface-wave arrival at UW whose amplitude is matched by the synthetics in our 3D velocity model, for a source depth of 9 km. The M 6.5 simulations incorporated a fractal slip distribution on the fault plane. These simulations produced the largest ground motions in an area that includes downtown Seattle. This is mainly caused by rupture directed up dip toward downtown, radiation pattern of the source, and the turning of S waves by the velocity gradient in the Seattle basin. Another area of high ground motion is located about 13 km north of the fault and is caused by an increase in the amplitude of higher-mode Rayleigh waves caused by the thinning of the Quaternary deposits.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2000

Probability of rupture of multiple fault segments

Fault segments identified from geologic and historic evidence have sometimes been adopted as features limiting the likely extends of earthquake ruptures. There is no doubt that individual segments can sometimes join together to produce larger earthquakes. This work is a trial of an objective method to determine the probability of multisegment ruptures. The frequency of occurrence of events on all conjectured combinations of adjacent segments in northern California is found by fitting to both geologic slip rates and to an assumed distribution of event sizes for the region as a whole. Uncertainty in the shape of the distribution near the maximum magnitude has a large effect on the solution. Frequencies of individual events cannot be determined, but it is possible to find a set of frequencies to fit a model closely. A robust conclusion for the San Francisco Bay region is that large multisegment events occur on the San Andreas and San Gregorio faults, but single-segment events predominate on the extended Hayward and Calaveras strands of segments.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2000

A geometricla error in some Computer Programs based on the Aki-Christofferson-Husebye (ACH) Method of Teleseismic Tomography

Some computer programs based on the Aki-Christofferson-Husebye (ACH) method of teleseismic tomography contain an error caused by identifying local grid directions with azimuths on the spherical Earth. This error, which is most severe in high latitudes, introduces systematic errors into computed ray paths and distorts inferred Earth models. It is best dealt with by explicity correcting for the difference between true and grid directions. Methods for computing these directions are presented in this article and are likely to be useful in many other kinds of regional geophysical studies that use Cartesian coordinates and flat-earth approximations.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2000

A Double-difference Earthquake location algorithm: Method and application to the Northern Hayward Fault, California

We have developed an efficient method to determine high-resolution hypocenter locations over large distances. The location method incorporates ordinary absolute travel-time measurements and/or cross-correlation P-and S-wave differential travel-time measurements. Residuals between observed and theoretical travel-time differences (or double-differences) are minimized for pairs of earthquakes at each station while linking together all observed event-station pairs. A least-squares solution is found by iteratively adjusting the vector difference between hypocentral pairs. The double-difference algorithm minimizes errors due to unmodeled velocity structure without the use of station corrections. Because catalog and cross-correlation data are combined into one system of equations, interevent distances within multiplets are determined to the accuracy of the cross-correlation data, while the relative locations between multiplets and uncorrelated events are simultaneously determined to the accuracy of the absolute travel-time data. Statistical resampling methods are used to estimate data accuracy and location errors. Uncertainties in double-difference locations are improved by more than an order of magnitude compared to catalog locations. The algorithm is tested, and its performance is demonstrated on two clusters of earthquakes located on the northern Hayward fault, California. There it colapses the diffuse catalog locations into sharp images of seismicity and reveals horizontal lineations of hypocenter that define the narrow regions on the fault where stress is released by brittle failure.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2001

Geographic deaggregation of seismic hazard in the United States

The seismic hazard calculations for the 1996 national seismic hazard maps have been geographically deaggregated to assist in the understanding of the relative contributions of sources. These deaggregations are exhibited as maps with vertical bars whose heights are proportional to the contribution that each geographical cell makes to the ground-motion exceedance hazard. Bar colors correspond to average source magnitudes. We also extend the deaggregation analysis reported in Harmsen et al. (1999) to the western conterminous United States. In contrast to the central and eastern United States (CEUS); the influence of specific faults or characteristic events can be clearly identified. Geographic deaggregation for 0.2-sec and 1.0-sec pseudo spectral acceleration (SA) is performed for 10% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 yr (475-yr mean return period) and 2% PE in 50 yr (2475-yr mean return period) for four western U.S. cities, Los Angeles, Salt Lake City, San Francisco, and Seattle, and for three central and eastern U.S. cities, Atlanta, Boston, and Saint Louis. In general, as the PE is lowered, the sources of hazard closer to the site dominate. Larger, more distant earthquakes contribute more significantly to hazard for 1.0-sec SA than for 0.2-sec SA. Additional maps of geographically deaggregated seismic hazard are available on the Internet for 120 cities in the conterminous United States (http://geohazards. cr.usgs.gov/eq/) for 1-sec SA and for 0.2-sec SA with a 2% PE in 50 yr. Examination of these maps of hazard contributions enables the investigator to determine the distance and azimuth to predominant sources, and their magnitudes. This information can be used to generate scenario earthquakes and corresponding time histories for seismic design and retrofit. Where fault density is lower than deaggregation cell dimensions, we can identify specific faults that contribute significantly to the seismic hazard at a given site. Detailed fault information enables investigators to include rupture information such as source directivity, radiation pattern, and basin-edge effects into their scenario earthquakes used in engineering analyses.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2000

Correlation of 1- to 10-Hz earthquake resonances with surface measurements of S-wave reflections and refractions in the upper 50 m

Resonances observed in earthquake seismograms recorded in Seattle, Washington, the central United States and Sherman Oaks, California, are correlated with each site's respective near-surface seismic velocity profile and reflectivity determined from shallow seismic-reflection/refraction surveys. In all of these cases the resonance accounts for the highest amplitude shaking at the site above 1 Hz. These results show that imaging near-surface reflections from the ground surface can locate impedance structures that are important contributors to earthquake ground shaking. A high-amplitude S-wave reflection, recorded 250-m northeast and 300-m east of the Seattle Kingdome earthquake-recording station, with a two-way travel time of about 0.23 to 0.27 sec (about 18- to 22-m depth) marks the boundary between overlying alluvium (VS < 180 m/sec) and a higher velocity material (VS about 400 m/sec). This reflector probably causes a strong 2-Hz resonance that is observed in the earthquake data for the site near the Kingdome. In the central United States, S-wave reflections from a high-impedance boundary (an S-wave velocity increase from about 200 m/sec to 2000 m/sec) at about 40-m depth corresponds to a strong fundamental resonance at about 1.5 Hz. In Sherman Oaks, strong resonances at about 1.0 and 4 Hz are consistently observed on earthquake seismograms. A strong S-wave reflector at about 40-m depth may cause the 1.0 Hz resonance. The 4.0-Hz resonance is possibly explained by constructive interference between the first overtone of the 1.0-Hz resonance and a 3.25- to 3.9-Hz resonance calculated from an areally consistent impedance boundary at about 10-m depth as determined by S-wave refraction data.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2000

Variability of site response in Seattle, Washington

Ground motion from local earthquakes and the SHIPS (Seismic Hazards Investigation in Puget Sound) experiment is used to estimate site amplification factors in Seattle. Earthquake and SHIPS records are analyzed by two methods: (1) spectral ratios relative to a nearby site on Tertiary sandstone, and (2) a source/site spectral inversion technique. Our results show site amplifications between 3 and 4 below 5 Hz for West Seattle relative to Tertiary rock. These values are approximately 30% lower than amplification in the Duwamish Valley on artificial fill, but significantly higher than the calculated range of 2 to 2.5 below 5 Hz for the till-covered hills east of downtown Seattle. Although spectral amplitudes are only 30% higher in the Duwamish Valley compared to West Seattle, the duration of long-period ground motion is significantly greater on the artificial fill sites. Using a three-dimensional displacement response spectrum measure that includes the effects of ground-motion duration, values in the Duwamish Valley are 2 to 3 times greater than West Seattle. These calculations and estimates of site response as a function of receiver azimuth point out the importance of trapped surface-wave energy within the shallow, low-velocity, sedimentary layers of the Duwamish Valley. One-dimensional velocity models yield spectral amplification factors close to the observations for till sites east of downtown Seattle and the Duwamish Valley, but underpredict amplifications by a factor of 2 in West Seattle. A two-dimensional finite-difference model does equally well for the till sites and the Duwamish Valley and also yields duration estimates consistent with the observations for the Duwamish Valley. The two-dimensional model, however, still underpredicts amplification in West Seattle by up to a factor of 2. This discrepancy is attributed to 3D effects, including basin-edge-induced surface waves and basin-geometry-focusing effects, caused by the proximity of the Seattle thrust fault and the sediment-filled Seattle basin.

Washington↗

USGS2001

Seismic reflection images of shallow faulting, northernmost Mississippi embayment, north of the New Madrid seismic zone

High-resolution seismic reflection surveys document tectonic faults that displace Pleistocene and older strata just beyond the northeast termination of the New Madrid seismic zone, at the northernmost extent of the Mississippi embayment. These faults, which are part of the Fluorspar Area fault complex in southeastern Illinois, are directly in line with the northeast-trending seismic zone. The reflection data were acquired using an elastic weight-drop source recorded to 500 msec by a 48-geophone array (24-fold) with a 10-ft (??3.0m) station interval. Recognizable reflections were recorded to about 200 msec (100-150 m). The effects of multiple reflections, numerous diffractions, low apparent velocity (i.e., steeply dipping) noise, and the relatively low-frequency content of the recorded signal provided challenges for data processing and interpreting subtle fault offsets. Data processing steps that were critical to the detection of faults included residual statics, post-stack migration, deconvolution, and noise-reduction filtering. Seismic migration was crucial for detecting and mitigating complex fault-related diffraction patterns, which produced an apparent 'folding' of reflectors on unmigrated sections. Detected individual offsets of shallow reflectors range from 5 to 10 m for the top of Paleozoic bedrock and younger strata. The migrated sections generally indicate vertical to steeply dipping normal and reverse faults, which in places outline small horsts and/or grabens. Tilting or folding of stratal reflectors associated with faulting is also locally observed. At one site, the observed faulting is superimposed over a prominent antiformal structure, which may itself be a product of the Quaternary deformation that produced the steep normal and reverse faults. Our results suggest that faulting of the Paleozoic bedrock and younger sediments of the northern Mississippi embayment is more pervasive and less localized than previously thought.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

USGS2001

1857 slip on the San Andreas fault Southeast of Cholame, California

Sieh and Jahns (1984) forecasted that the next moderate Parkfield earthquake might trigger a major earthquake along a fault segment greater than 30 km long southeast of Cholame. Their forecast assumed (1) the slip was 3-4 m in 1857 and characteristic of the segment; (2) a slip rate of 3.4 cm/yr; and (3) full strain release in earthquakes. This study represents an independent measurement of channel offsets, on 1:2400-scale low-sun aerial photographs and by field investigation, to estimate the amount of 1857 slip. Although rainfall is only moderate (30 cm/yr), few reliable offsets of less than 20 m persist here because cattle grazing and agricultural disking of soft sediments on the steep terrain greatly aggravate erosion. Reconstruction of offset geometry and size depends heavily on assumptions made about the post-1857 erosion. Most of the apparent 3- to 4-m offsets of Sieh and Jahns (1984) can also be measured as 2 to 3 m larger with equal or lower uncertainty. The four offsets judged as most reliable range between 5.4 and 6.7 m, and the 11 offsets of medium-high reliability average 5.8 ?? 0.3 m. Data are too sparse and ambiguous to resolve details of the 1857 slip for this segment but it is distinctly less than the 9 m of the Carrizo Plain and more than the 3-4 m previously estimated. Further trenching may refine some measurements, but probability calculations for a Cholame segment earthquake must allow for large observer-dependent uncertainty in the 1857 slip. Although the probability of an M ???7 Cholame event seems less than that suggested by a 3.5-m characteristic earthquake model, it remains among the highest in the state.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗