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USGS2001

Seismic reflection images of shallow faulting, northernmost Mississippi embayment, north of the New Madrid seismic zone

High-resolution seismic reflection surveys document tectonic faults that displace Pleistocene and older strata just beyond the northeast termination of the New Madrid seismic zone, at the northernmost extent of the Mississippi embayment. These faults, which are part of the Fluorspar Area fault complex in southeastern Illinois, are directly in line with the northeast-trending seismic zone. The reflection data were acquired using an elastic weight-drop source recorded to 500 msec by a 48-geophone array (24-fold) with a 10-ft (??3.0m) station interval. Recognizable reflections were recorded to about 200 msec (100-150 m). The effects of multiple reflections, numerous diffractions, low apparent velocity (i.e., steeply dipping) noise, and the relatively low-frequency content of the recorded signal provided challenges for data processing and interpreting subtle fault offsets. Data processing steps that were critical to the detection of faults included residual statics, post-stack migration, deconvolution, and noise-reduction filtering. Seismic migration was crucial for detecting and mitigating complex fault-related diffraction patterns, which produced an apparent 'folding' of reflectors on unmigrated sections. Detected individual offsets of shallow reflectors range from 5 to 10 m for the top of Paleozoic bedrock and younger strata. The migrated sections generally indicate vertical to steeply dipping normal and reverse faults, which in places outline small horsts and/or grabens. Tilting or folding of stratal reflectors associated with faulting is also locally observed. At one site, the observed faulting is superimposed over a prominent antiformal structure, which may itself be a product of the Quaternary deformation that produced the steep normal and reverse faults. Our results suggest that faulting of the Paleozoic bedrock and younger sediments of the northern Mississippi embayment is more pervasive and less localized than previously thought.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2001

1857 slip on the San Andreas fault Southeast of Cholame, California

Sieh and Jahns (1984) forecasted that the next moderate Parkfield earthquake might trigger a major earthquake along a fault segment greater than 30 km long southeast of Cholame. Their forecast assumed (1) the slip was 3-4 m in 1857 and characteristic of the segment; (2) a slip rate of 3.4 cm/yr; and (3) full strain release in earthquakes. This study represents an independent measurement of channel offsets, on 1:2400-scale low-sun aerial photographs and by field investigation, to estimate the amount of 1857 slip. Although rainfall is only moderate (30 cm/yr), few reliable offsets of less than 20 m persist here because cattle grazing and agricultural disking of soft sediments on the steep terrain greatly aggravate erosion. Reconstruction of offset geometry and size depends heavily on assumptions made about the post-1857 erosion. Most of the apparent 3- to 4-m offsets of Sieh and Jahns (1984) can also be measured as 2 to 3 m larger with equal or lower uncertainty. The four offsets judged as most reliable range between 5.4 and 6.7 m, and the 11 offsets of medium-high reliability average 5.8 ?? 0.3 m. Data are too sparse and ambiguous to resolve details of the 1857 slip for this segment but it is distinctly less than the 9 m of the Carrizo Plain and more than the 3-4 m previously estimated. Further trenching may refine some measurements, but probability calculations for a Cholame segment earthquake must allow for large observer-dependent uncertainty in the 1857 slip. Although the probability of an M ???7 Cholame event seems less than that suggested by a 3.5-m characteristic earthquake model, it remains among the highest in the state.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2000

Characterization of active faulting beneath the Strait of Georgia, British Columbia

Southwestern British Columbia and northwestern Washington State are subject to megathrust earthquakes, deep intraslab events, and earthquakes in the continental crust. Of the three types of earthquakes, the most poorly understood are the crustal events. Despite a high level of seismicity, there is no obvious correlation between the historical crustal earthquakes and the mapped surface faults of the region. On 24 June 1997, a ML = 4.6 earthquake occurred 3-4 km beneath the Strait of Georgia, 30 km to the west of Vancouver, British Columbia. This well-recorded earthquake was preceded by 11 days by a felt foreshock (ML = 3.4) and was followed by numerous small aftershocks. This earthquake sequence occurred in one of the few regions of persistent shallow seismic activity in southwestern British Columbia, thus providing an ideal opportunity to attempt to characterize an active near-surface fault. We have computed focal mechanisms and utilized a waveform cross-correlation and joint hypocentral determination routine to obtain accurate relative hypocenters of the mainshock, foreshock, and 53 small aftershocks in an attempt to image the active fault and the extent of rupture associated with this earthquake sequence. Both P-nodal and CMT focal mechanisms show thrust faulting for the mainshock and the foreshock. The relocated hypocenters delineate a north-dipping plane at 2-4 km depth, dipping at 53??, in good agreement with the focal mechanism nodal plane dipping to the north at 47??. The rupture area is estimated to be a 1.3-km-diameter circular area, comparable to that estimated using a Brune rupture model with the estimated seismic moment of 3.17 ?? 1015 N m and the stress drop of 45 bars. The temporal sequence indicates a downdip migration of the seismicity along the fault plane. The results of this study provide the first unambiguous evidence for the orientation and sense of motion for active faulting in the Georgia Strait area of British Columbia.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2001

Common features and peculiarities of the seismic activity at Phlegraean Fields, Long Valley, and Vesuvius

We analyzed and compared the seismic activity that has occurred in the last two to three decades in three distinct volcanic areas: Phlegraean Fields, Italy; Vesuvius, Italy; and Long Valley, California. Our main goal is to identify and discuss common features and peculiarities in the temporal evolution of earthquake sequences that may reflect similarities and differences in the generating processes between these volcanic systems. In particular, we tried to characterize the time series of the number of events and of the seismic energy release in terms of stochastic, deterministic, and chaotic components. The time sequences from each area consist of thousands of earthquakes that allow a detailed quantitative analysis and comparison. The results obtained showed no evidence for either deterministic or chaotic components in the earthquake sequences in Long Valley caldera, which appears to be dominated by stochastic behavior. In contrast, earthquake sequences at Phlegrean Fields and Mount Vesuvius show a deterministic signal mainly consisting of a 24-hour periodicity. Our analysis suggests that the modulation in seismicity is in some way related to thermal diurnal processes, rather than luni-solar tidal effects. Independently from the process that generates these periodicities on the seismicity., it is suggested that the lack (or presence) of diurnal cycles is seismic swarms of volcanic areas could be closely linked to the presence (or lack) of magma motion.

California↗
USGS2001

Seismic hazard in Hawaii: High rate of large earthquakes and probabilistics ground-motion maps

The seismic hazard and earthquake occurrence rates in Hawaii are locally as high as that near the most hazardous faults elsewhere in the United States. We have generated maps of peak ground acceleration (PGA) and spectral acceleration (SA) (at 0.2, 0.3 and 1.0 sec, 5% critical damping) at 2% and 10% exceedance probabilities in 50 years. The highest hazard is on the south side of Hawaii Island, as indicated by the MI 7.0, MS 7.2, and MI 7.9 earthquakes, which occurred there since 1868. Probabilistic values of horizontal PGA (2% in 50 years) on Hawaii's south coast exceed 1.75g. Because some large earthquake aftershock zones and the geometry of flank blocks slipping on subhorizontal decollement faults are known, we use a combination of spatially uniform sources in active flank blocks and smoothed seismicity in other areas to model seismicity. Rates of earthquakes are derived from magnitude distributions of the modem (1959-1997) catalog of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory's seismic network supplemented by the historic (1868-1959) catalog. Modern magnitudes are ML measured on a Wood-Anderson seismograph or MS. Historic magnitudes may add ML measured on a Milne-Shaw or Bosch-Omori seismograph or MI derived from calibrated areas of MM intensities. Active flank areas, which by far account for the highest hazard, are characterized by distributions with b slopes of about 1.0 below M 5.0 and about 0.6 above M 5.0. The kinked distribution means that large earthquake rates would be grossly under-estimated by extrapolating small earthquake rates, and that longer catalogs are essential for estimating or verifying the rates of large earthquakes. Flank earthquakes thus follow a semicharacteristic model, which is a combination of background seismicity and an excess number of large earthquakes. Flank earthquakes are geometrically confined to rupture zones on the volcano flanks by barriers such as rift zones and the seaward edge of the volcano, which may be expressed by a magnitude distribution similar to that including characteristic earthquakes. The island chain northwest of Hawaii Island is seismically and volcanically much less active. We model its seismic hazard with a combination of a linearly decaying ramp fit to the cataloged seismicity and spatially smoothed seismicity with a smoothing half-width of 10 km. We use a combination of up to four attenuation relations for each map because for either PGA or SA, there is no single relation that represents ground motion for all distance and magnitude ranges. Great slumps and landslides visible on the ocean floor correspond to catastrophes with effective energy magnitudes ME above 8.0. A crude estimate of their frequency suggests that the probabilistic earthquake hazard is at least an order of magnitude higher for flank earthquakes than that from submarine slumps.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2001

Observations of basin ground motions from a dense seismic array in San Jose, California

We installed a dense array of 41 digital seismographs in San Jose, California, to evaluate in detail the effects of a deep sedimentary basin and shallow sedimentary deposits on earthquake ground motions. This urban array is located near the eastern edge of the Santa Clara Valley and spans the Evergreen sedimentary basin identified by gravity data. Average station spacing is 1 km, with three stations initially spaced 110 m apart. Despite the high-noise urban environment, the stations of the array successfully triggered on and recorded small local earthquakes (M 2.5-2.8 at 10-25 km distance) and larger regional events such as the M 5.0 Bolinas earthquake (90 km distance), M 4.6-5.6 earthquakes near Mammoth Lakes (270 km distance), M 4.9-5.6 events in western Nevada (420 km distance) and the M 7.1 Hector Mine earthquake (590 km distance). Maps of spectral ratios across the array show that the highest amplitudes in all frequency bands studied (0.125-8 Hz) are generally observed at stations farther from the eastern edge of the Santa Clara Valley. Larger spectral amplitudes are often observed above the western edge of the Evergreen Basin. Snapshots of the recorded wavefield crossing the array for regional events to the east reveal that large, low-frequency (0.125-0.5 Hz) arrivals after the S-wave travel from south to north across the array. A moving-window, cross-correlation analysis finds that these later arrivals are surface waves traveling from the south. The timing and propagation direction of these arrivals indicates that they were likely produced by scattering of incident S waves at the border of the Santa Clara Valley to the south of the array. It is remarkable that the largest low-frequency phases at many of the valley sites for regional events to the east are basin surface waves coming from a direction about 70 degrees different from that of the epicenters. Basin surface waves emanating from the eastern edge of the valley are also identified by the cross-correlation analysis.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2001

Observations of earthquake source parameters at 2 km depth in the Long Valley Caldera, eastern California

To investigate seismic source parameter scaling and seismic efficiency in the Long Valley caldera, California, we measured source parameters for 41 earthquakes (M 0.5 to M 5) recorded at 2 km depth in the Long Valley Exploratory Well. Borehole recordings provide a wide frequency bandwidth, typically 1 to 200–300 Hz, and greatly reduce seismic noise and path effects compared to surface recordings. We calculated source parameters in both the time and frequency domains for P and S waves. At frequencies above the corner frequency, spectra decay faster than ω 3 , indicating that attenuation plays an important role in shaping the spectra (path averaged Q p = 100–400, Q s = 200–800). Source parameters are corrected for attenuation and radiation pattern. Both static stress drops and apparent stresses range from approximately 0.01 to 30 MPa. Although static stress drops do not vary with seismic moment for these data, our analyses are consistent with apparent stress increasing with increasing moment. To estimate tectonic driving stress and seismic efficiencies in the region, we combined source parameter measurements with knowledge of the stress field and a Coulomb failure criterion to infer a driving stress of 40–70 MPa. Subsequent seismic efficiencies are consistent with McGarr's (1999) hypothesis of a maximum seismic efficiency of 6%.

California↗
USGS2003

Paleoseismicity of two historically quiescent faults in Australia: Implications for fault behavior in stable continental regions

Paleoseismic studies of two historically aseismic Quaternary faults in Australia confirm that cratonic faults in stable continental regions (SCR) typically have a long-term behavior characterized by episodes of activity separated by quiescent intervals of at least 10,000 and commonly 100,000 years or more. Studies of the approximately 30-km-long Roopena fault in South Australia and the approximately 30-km-long Hyden fault in Western Australia document multiple Quaternary surface-faulting events that are unevenly spaced in time. The episodic clustering of events on cratonic SCR faults may be related to temporal fluctuations of fault-zone fluid pore pressures in a volume of strained crust. The long-term slip rate on cratonic SCR faults is extremely low, so the geomorphic expression of many cratonic SCR faults is subtle, and scarps may be difficult to detect because they are poorly preserved. Both the Roopena and Hyden faults are in areas of limited or no significant seismicity; these and other faults that we have studied indicate that many potentially hazardous SCR faults cannot be recognized solely on the basis of instrumental data or historical earthquakes. Although cratonic SCR faults may appear to be nonhazardous because they have been historically aseismic, those that are favorably oriented for movement in the current stress field can and have produced unexpected damaging earthquakes. Paleoseismic studies of modern and prehistoric SCR faulting events provide the basis for understanding of the long-term behavior of these faults and ultimately contribute to better seismic-hazard assessments.

South Australia↗
USGS2001

Sinking mafic body in a reactivated lower crust: A mechanism for stress concentration at the New Madrid seismic zone

We propose a geodynamic model for stress concentration in the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ). The model postulates that a high-density (mafic) body situated in the deep crust directly beneath the most seismically active part of the NMSZ began sinking several thousands of years ago when the lower crust was suddenly weakened. Based on the fact that deformation rates in the NMSZ have accelerated over the past 9 k.y., we envision the source of this perturbation to be related to the last North American deglaciation. Excess mass of the mafic body exerts a downward pull on the elastic upper crust, leading to a cycle of primary thrust faulting with secondary strike-slip faulting, after which continued sinking of the mafic body reloads the upper crust and renews the process. This model is consistent with the youth of activity, the generation of a sequence of earthquakes, and the velocity evolution during interseismic periods, which depend upon the density contrast of the mafic body with respect to the surrounding crust, its volume, and the viscosity of the lower crust.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2001

Distribution of fine-scale mantle heterogeneity from observations of Pdiff coda

We present stacked record sections of Global Seismic Network data that image the average amplitude and polarization of the high-frequency Pdiff coda and investigate their implications on the depth extent of fine-scale (~10 km) mantle heterogeneity. The extended 1-Hz coda lasts for at least 150 sec and is observed to a distance of 130??. The coda's polarization angle is about the same as the main Pdiff arrival (4.4 sec/deg) and is nearly constant with time. Previous studies show that multiple scattering from heterogeneity restricted to the lowermost mantle generates an extended Pdiff coda with a constant polarization. Here we present an alternative model that satisfies our Pdiff observations. The model consists of single scattering from weak (~1%) fine-scale (~2 km) structures distributed throughout the mantle. Although this model is nonunique, it demonstrates that Pdiff coda observations do not preclude the existence of scattering contributions from the entire mantle.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2001

Mean and modal ϵ in the deaggregation of probabilistic ground motion

An important element of probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis (PSHA) is the incorporation of ground-motion uncertainty from the earthquake sources. The standard normal variate ϵ measures the difference between any specified spectral-acceleration level, or SA 0 , and the estimated median spectral acceleration from each probabilistic source. In this article, mean and modal values of ϵ for a specified SA 0 are defined and computed from all sources considered in the USGS 1996 PSHA maps. Contour maps of ϵ are presented for the conterminous United States for 1-, 0.3-, and 0.2-sec SA 0 and for peak horizontal acceleration, PGA 0 corresponding to a 2% probability of exceedance (PE) in 50 yr, or mean annual rate of exceedance, r , of 0.000404. Mean and modal ϵ exhibit a wide variation geographically for any specified PE. Modal ϵ for the 2% in 50 yr PE exceeds 2 near the most active western California faults, is less than –1 near some less active faults of the western United States (principally in the Basin and Range), and may be less than 0 in areal fault zones of the central and eastern United States (CEUS). This geographic variation is useful for comparing probabilistic ground motions with ground motions from scenario earthquakes on dominating faults, often used in seismic-resistant provisions of building codes. An interactive seismic-hazard deaggregation menu item has been added to the USGS probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis Web site, http://geohazards.cr.usgs.gov/eq/ , allowing visitors to compute mean and modal distance, magnitude, and ϵ corresponding to ground motions having mean return times from 250 to 5000 yr for any site in the United States.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2000

Strong motion from surface waves in deep sedimentary basins

It is widely recognized that long-period surface waves generated by conversion of body waves at the boundaries of deep sedimentary basins make an important contribution to strong ground motion. The factors controlling the amplitude of such motion, however, are not widely understood. A study of pseudovelocity response spectra of strong-motion records from the Los Angeles Basin shows that late-arriving surface waves with group velocities of about 1 km/sec dominate the ground motion for periods of 3 sec and longer. The rate of amplitude decay for these waves is less than for the body waves and depends significantly on period, with smaller decay for longer periods. The amplitude can be modeled by the equation log y = f(M, RE) + c + bRB where y is the pseudovelocity response, f(M, RE) is an attenuation relation based on a general strong-motion data set, M is moment magnitude, RE is the distance from the source to the edge of the basin, RB is the distance from the edge of the basin to the recording site, and b and c are parameters fit to the data. The equation gives values larger by as much as a factor of 3 than given by the attenuation relationships based on general strong-motion data sets for the same source-site distance. It is clear that surface waves need to be taken into account in the design of long-period structures in deep sedimentary basins. The ground-motion levels specified by the earthquake provisions of current building codes, in California at least, accommodate the long-period ground motions from basin-edge-generated surface waves for periods of 5 sec and less and earthquakes with moment magnitudes of 7.5 or less located more than 20 km outside the basin. There may be problems at longer periods and for earthquakes located closer to the basin edge. The results of this study suggest that anelastic attenuation may need to be included in attempts to model long-period motion in deep sedimentary basins. To obtain better data on surface waves in the future, operators of strong-motion networks should take special care for the faithful recording of the long-period components of ground motion. It will also be necessary to insure that at least some selected recorders, once triggered, continue to operate for a time sufficient for the surface waves to traverse the basin. With velocities of about 1 km/sec, that time will be as long as 100 sec for a basin the size of the Los Angeles Basin.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2000

A modified ground-motion attenuation relationship for southern California that accounts for detailed site classification and a basin-depth effect

The attenuation relationship presented by Boore et al. (1997) has been evaluated and customized with respect to southern California strong-motion data (for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.3-, 1.0-, and 3.0-sec period spectral acceleration). This study was motivated by the recent availability of a new site-classification map by Wills et al. (2000), which distinguishes seven different site categories for California based on the 1994 NEHRP classification. With few exceptions, each of the five site types represented in the southern California strong-motion database exhibit distinct amplification factors, supporting use of the Wills et al. (2000) map for microzonation purposes. Following other studies, a basin-depth term was also found to be significant and therefore added to the relationship. Sites near the center of the LA Basin exhibit shaking levels up to a factor of 2 greater, on average, than otherwise equivalent sites near the edge. Relative to Boore et al. (1997), the other primary difference here is that PGA exhibits less variation among the Wills et al. (2000) site types. In fact, the PGA amplification implied by the basin-depth effect is greater than that implied by site classification. The model does not explicitly account for nonlinear sediment effects, which, if important, will most likely influence rock-site PGA predictions the most. Evidence for a magnitude-dependent variability, or prediction uncertainty, is also found and included as an option.

California↗
USGS2000

Accounting for site effects in probabilistic seismic hazard analyses of southern California: Overview of the SCEC Phase III Report

This article presents an overview of the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) Phase-III effort to determine the extent to which probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) can be improved by accounting for site effects. The contributions made in this endeavor are represented in the various articles that compose this special issue of BSSA. Given the somewhat arbitrary nature of the site-effect distinction, it must be carefully defined in any given context. With respect to PSHA, we define the site effect as the response, relative to an attenuation relationship, averaged over all damaging earthquakes in the region. A diligent effort has been made to identify any attributes that predispose a site to greater or lower levels of shaking. The most detailed maps of Quaternary geology are not found to be helpful; either they are overly detailed in terms of distinguishing different amplification factors or present southern California strong-motion observations are inadequate to reveal their superiority. A map based on the average shear-wave velocity in the upper 30 m, however, is found to delineate significantly different amplification factors. A correlation of amplification with basin depth is also found to be significant, implying up to a factor of two difference between the shallowest and deepest parts of the Los Angeles basin. In fact, for peak acceleration the basin-depth correction is more influential than the 30-m shear-wave velocity. Questions remain, however, as to whether basin depth is a proxy for some other site attribute. In spite of these significant and important site effects, the standard deviation of an attenuation relationship (the prediction error) is not significantly reduced by making such corrections. That is, given the influence of basin-edge-induced waves, subsurface focusing, and scattering in general, any model that attempts to predict ground motion with only a few parameters will have a substantial intrinsic variability. Our best hope for reducing such uncertainties is via waveform modeling based on first principals of physics. Finally, questions remain with respect to the overall reliability of attenuation relationships at large magnitudes and short distances. Current discrepancies between viable models produce up to a factor of 3 difference among predicted 10% in 50-yr exceedance levels, part of which results from the uncertain influence of sediment nonlinearity.

California↗
USGS2002

Timing of large earthquakes since A.D. 800 on the Mission Creek strand of the San Andreas fault zone at Thousand Palms Oasis, near Palm Springs, California

Paleoseismic investigations across the Mission Creek strand of the San Andreas fault at Thousand Palms Oasis indicate that four and probably five surface-rupturing earthquakes occurred during the past 1200 years. Calendar age estimates for these earthquakes are based on a chronological model that incorporates radiocarbon dates from 18 in situ burn layers and stratigraphic ordering constraints. These five earthquakes occurred in about A.D. 825 (770–890) (mean, 95% range), A.D. 982 (840–1150), A.D. 1231 (1170–1290), A.D. 1502 (1450–1555), and after a date in the range of A.D. 1520–1680. The most recent surface-rupturing earthquake at Thousand Palms is likely the same as the A.D. 1676 ± 35 event at Indio reported by Sieh and Williams ( 1990 ). Each of the past five earthquakes recorded on the San Andreas fault in the Coachella Valley strongly overlaps in time with an event at the Wrightwood paleoseismic site, about 120 km northwest of Thousand Palms Oasis. Correlation of events between these two sites suggests that at least the southernmost 200 km of the San Andreas fault zone may have ruptured in each earthquake. The average repeat time for surface-rupturing earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in the Coachella Valley is 215 ± 25 years, whereas the elapsed time since the most recent event is 326 ± 35 years. This suggests the southernmost San Andreas fault zone likely is very near failure. The Thousand Palms Oasis site is underlain by a series of six channels cut and filled since about A.D. 800 that cross the fault at high angles. A channel margin about 900 years old is offset right laterally 2.0 ± 0.5 m, indicating a slip rate of 4 ± 2 mm/yr. This slip rate is low relative to geodetic and other geologic slip rate estimates (26 ± 2 mm/yr and about 23–35 mm/yr, respectively) on the southernmost San Andreas fault zone, possibly because (1) the site is located in a small step-over in the fault trace and so the rate is not be representative of the Mission Creek fault, (2) slip is partitioned northward from the San Andreas fault and into the eastern California shear zone, and/or (3) slip is partitioned onto the Banning strand of the San Andreas fault zone.

California↗
USGS2002

Evidence for two surface ruptures in the past 500 years on the San Andreas fault at Frazier Mountain, California

We conducted paleoseismic studies in a closed depression along the San Andreas fault on the north flank of Frazier Mountain near Frazier Park, California. We recognized two earthquake ruptures in our trench exposure and interpreted the most recent rupture, event 1, to represent the historical 1857 earthquake. We also exposed evidence of an earlier surface rupture, event 2, along an older group of faults that did not rerupture during event 1. Radiocarbon dating of the stratigraphy above and below the earlier event constrains its probable age to between A.D. 1460 and 1600. Because we documented continuous, unfaulted stratigraphy between the earlier event horizon and the youngest event horizon in the portion of the fault zone exposed, we infer event 2 to be the penultimate event. We observed no direct evidence of an 1812 earthquake in our exposures. However, we cannot preclude the presence of this event at our site due to limited age control in the upper part of the section and the possibility of other fault strands beyond the limits of our exposures. Based on overlapping age ranges, event 2 at Frazier Mountain may correlate with event B at the Bidart fan site in the Carrizo Plain to the northwest and events V and W4 at Pallett Creek and Wrightwood, respectively, to the southeast. If the events recognized at these multiple sites resulted from the same surface rupture, then it appears that the San Andreas fault has repeatedly failed in large ruptures similar in extent to 1857.

California↗
USGS2002

A record of large earthquakes on the southern Hayward fault for the past 500 years

The Hayward fault, a major branch of the right-lateral San Andreas fault system, traverses the densely populated eastern San Francisco Bay region, California. We conducted a paleoseismic investigation to better understand the Hayward fault's past earthquake behavior. The site is near the south end of Tyson's Lagoon, a sag pond formed in a right step of the fault in Fremont. Because the Hayward fault creeps at the surface, we identified paleoseismic events using features that we judge to be unique to ground ruptures or the result of strong ground motion, such as the presence of fault-scarp colluvial deposits and liquefaction. We correlate the most recent event evidence (E1) to the historical 1868 M 6.9 earthquake that caused liquefaction in the pond and recognize three additional paleoruptures since A.D. 1470 ± 110 yr. Event ages were estimated by chronological modeling, which incorporated historical and stratigraphic information and radiocarbon and pollen data. Modeled, mean age and 95-percentile ranges of the three earlier events are A.D. 1730 (1650-1790) yr (E2), A.D. 1630 (1530-1740) yr (E3), and A.D. 1470 (1360-1580) (E4). The ages of these paleoearthquakes yield a mean recurrence of 130 ± 40 yr. Although the mean recurrence is well determined for the period A.D. 1470-1868, individual intervals are less well determined: E1-E2, 140 +80/-70 yr; E2-E3, 100 +90/-100 yr; and E3-E4, 150 +130/-110 yr.

California↗
USGS2002

San Andreas fault zone, California: M≥5.5 earthquake history

The San Andreas fault zone has been a very significant source of major California earthquakes. From 1812 to 1906 it generated four major earthquakes of M ∼7 or larger in two pairs on two major portions of the fault. A pair of major earthquakes occurred on the central to southern region, where the 1857 faulting overlapped the 1812 earthquake faulting. A pair of major earthquakes occurred on the northern region, where the 1906 faulting overlapped the 1838 earthquake faulting. Also, earthquakes of M ∼7 occurred in the San Francisco Bay area on the Hayward fault in 1868 and the Santa Cruz Mountains near Loma Prieta in 1989 and on the Imperial fault near the border with Mexico in 1940. The 1838 earthquake's damage effects throughout the Bay area, from San Francisco to Santa Clara Valley and Monterey, were unequalled by any historical earthquake other than the 1906 event. This, and numerous strong possible aftershocks during the following 3 years in the San Juan Bautista vicinity, suggest 1838 faulting from San Francisco to San Juan Bautista. Cycles of seismicity and quiescence were associated with the Bay area earthquakes of 1868, 1906, and 1989. The 1868 earthquake on the Hayward fault was preceded by 12 earthquakes of M ≥5.5 from 1855 to 1866, within 60 km of the Hayward fault, and was followed by 13 quiet years. The 1906 San Andreas fault event was preceded from 1881 to 1903 by 18 earthquakes of M ≥5.5 and was followed by quiescence, with only three earthquakes of M ≥5.5 until 1954. The Bay area has been seismically quiet at the M ≥5.5 level since the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake and its 1990 aftershocks, which contrasts with the 10 years before 1989, when five M 5.5–6.2 events occurred. The Loma Prieta earthquake is of similar magnitude to the 1868 Hayward event and could be followed by a similarly short quiet period. The 1857 earthquake had immediate foreshocks in the Lonoak–Bitterwater region ∼50 km northwest of Parkfield. In the northern end zone of the 1857 rupture, extending southeast from Bitterwater ∼70 km to Parkfield, the rate of seismic moment release has decreased with time since 1857. This may reflect the decay with time of the stress loading due to the ∼9 m 1857 fault displacements ∼80 km southeast of Parkfield and explain why the predicted earthquake, which was based on the assumption of regular recurrence of Parkfield earthquakes, has not yet occurred. The extent of the 1812 earthquake fault rupture is not well defined. Jacoby et al. ( 1988 ) estimated that it extended ∼170 km from Cajon Pass to Tejon Pass. Based on this estimate, we present the hypothesis that the rupture occurred in two segments in December 1812. The eastern segment generated the 8 December earthquake that damaged San Juan Capistrano, San Gabriel, San Fernando, and San Buenaventura. Thirteen days later the western segment ruptured generating the earthquake that damaged San Fernando and San Buenaventura again, as well as Santa Barbara, Santa Ynez, and Purisima Concepcion.

California↗