SEARCH · Geology Reports

Results for “Anthropocene”

Search indexed USGS publications on groundwater, aquifers, geologic maps, mineral resources and earthquakes. Explore source records by subject and place.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 91 records · Page 5Linked to original sources

USGS2020

Marine latitudinal diversity gradients, niche conservatism and out of the tropics and Arctic: Climatic sensitivity of small organisms

Aim The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is a consequence of evolutionary and ecological mechanisms acting over long history, and thus is best investigated with organisms that have rich fossil records. However, combined neontological‐palaeontological investigations are mostly limited to large, shelled invertebrates, which keeps our mechanistic understanding of LDGs in its infancy. This paper aims to describe the modern meiobenthic ostracod LDG and to explore the possible controlling factors and the evolutionary mechanisms of this large‐scale biodiversity pattern. Location Present‐day Western North Atlantic. Taxon Ostracoda. Methods We compiled ostracod census data from shallow‐marine environments of the western North Atlantic Ocean. Using these data, we documented the marine LDG with multiple metrics of alpha, beta (nestedness and turnover) and gamma diversity, and we tested whether macroecological patterns could be governed by different environmental factors, including temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, pH and primary productivity. We also explored the geologic age distribution of ostracod genera to investigate the evolutionary mechanisms underpinning the LDG. Results Our results show that temperature and climatic niche conservatism are important in setting LDGs of these small, poorly dispersing organisms. We also found evidence for some dispersal‐driven spatial dynamics in the ostracod LDG. Compared to patterns observed in marine bivalves, however, dispersal dynamics were weaker and they were bi‐directional, rather than following the ‘out‐of‐the‐tropics’ model. Main conclusions Our detailed analyses revealed that meiobenthic organisms, which comprise two‐thirds of marine diversity, do not always follow the same rules as larger, better‐studied organisms. Our findings suggest that the understudied majority of biodiversity may be more sensitive to climate than well‐studied, large organisms. This implies that the impacts of ongoing Anthropocene climatic change on marine ecosystems may be much more serious than presently thought.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2020

Keystone predators govern the pathway and pace of climate impacts in a subarctic marine ecosystem

Predator loss and climate change are hallmarks of the Anthropocene yet their interactive effects are largely unknown. Here, we show that massive calcareous reefs, built slowly by the alga Clathromorphum nereostratum over centuries to millennia, are now declining because of the emerging interplay between these two processes. Such reefs, the structural base of Aleutian kelp forests, are rapidly eroding because of overgrazing by herbivores. Historical reconstructions and experiments reveal that overgrazing was initiated by the loss of sea otters, Enhydra lutris (which gave rise to herbivores capable of causing bioerosion), and then accelerated with ocean warming and acidification (which increased per capita lethal grazing by 34 to 60% compared with preindustrial times). Thus, keystone predators can mediate the ways in which climate effects emerge in nature and the pace with which they alter ecosystems.

Science↗

USGS2015

Arctic biodiversity: Increasing richness accompanies shrinking refugia for a cold-associated tundra fauna

As ancestral biodiversity responded dynamically to late-Quaternary climate changes, so are extant organisms responding to the warming trajectory of the Anthropocene. Ecological predictive modeling, statistical hypothesis tests, and genetic signatures of demographic change can provide a powerful integrated toolset for investigating these biodiversity responses to climate change, and relative resiliency across different communities. Within the biotic province of Beringia, we analyzed specimen localities and DNA sequences from 28 mammal species associated with boreal forest and Arctic tundra biomes to assess both historical distributional and evolutionary responses and then forecasted future changes based on statistical assessments of past and present trajectories, and quantified distributional and demographic changes in relation to major management regions within the study area. We addressed three sets of hypotheses associated with aspects of methodological, biological, and socio-political importance by asking (1) what is the consistency among implications of predicted changes based on the results of both ecological and evolutionary analyses; (2) what are the ecological and evolutionary implications of climate change considering either total regional diversity or distinct communities associated with major biomes; and (3) are there differences in management implications across regions? Our results indicate increasing Arctic richness through time that highlights a potential state shift across the Arctic landscape. However, within distinct ecological communities, we found a predicted decline in the range and effective population size of tundra species into several discrete refugial areas. Consistency in results based on a combination of both ecological and evolutionary approaches demonstrates increased statistical confidence by applying cross-discipline comparative analyses to conservation of biodiversity, particularly considering variable management regimes that seek to balance sustainable ecosystems with other anthropogenic values. Refugial areas for cold-adapted taxa appear to be persistent across both warm and cold climate phases and although fragmented, constitute vital regions for persistence of Arctic mammals.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2021

Recent nitrogen storage and accumulation rates in mangrove soils exceed historic rates in the urbanized San Juan Bay Estuary (Puerto Rico, United States)

Tropical mangrove forests have been described as “coastal kidneys,” promoting sediment deposition and filtering contaminants, including excess nutrients. Coastal areas throughout the world are experiencing increased human activities, resulting in altered geomorphology, hydrology, and nutrient inputs. To effectively manage and sustain coastal mangroves, it is important to understand nitrogen (N) storage and accumulation in systems where human activities are causing rapid changes in N inputs and cycling. We examined N storage and accumulation rates in recent (1970 – 2016) and historic (1930 – 1970) decades in the context of urbanization in the San Juan Bay Estuary (SJBE, Puerto Rico), using mangrove soil cores that were radiometrically dated. Local anthropogenic stressors can alter N storage rates in peri-urban mangrove systems either directly by increasing N soil fertility or indirectly by altering hydrology (e.g., dredging, filling, and canalization). Nitrogen accumulation rates were greater in recent decades than historic decades at Piñones Forest and Martin Peña East. Martin Peña East was characterized by high urbanization, and Piñones, by the least urbanization in the SJBE. The mangrove forest at Martin Peña East fringed a poorly drained canal and often received raw sewage inputs, with N accumulation rates ranging from 17.7 to 37.9 g m –2 y –1 in recent decades. The Piñones Forest was isolated and had low flushing, possibly exacerbated by river damming, with N accumulation rates ranging from 18.6 to 24.2 g m –2 y –1 in recent decades. Nearly all (96.3%) of the estuary-wide mangrove N (9.4 Mg ha –1 ) was stored in the soils with 7.1 Mg ha –1 sequestered during 1970–2017 (0–18 cm) and 2.3 Mg ha –1 during 1930–1970 (19–28 cm). Estuary-wide mangrove soil N accumulation rates were over twice as great in recent decades (0.18 ± 0.002 Mg ha –1 y –1 ) than historically (0.08 ± 0.001 Mg ha –1 y –1 ). Nitrogen accumulation rates in SJBE mangrove soils in recent times were twofold larger than the rate of human-consumed food N that is exported as wastewater (0.08 Mg ha –1 y –1 ), suggesting the potential for mangroves to sequester human-derived N. Conservation and effective management of mangrove forests and their surrounding watersheds in the Anthropocene are important for maintaining water quality in coastal communities throughout tropical regions.

Puerto Rico, San Juan Bay Estuary↗

USGS2024

Human-induced range expansions result in a recent hybrid zone between sister species of ducks

Landscapes are consistently under pressure from human-induced ecological change, often resulting in shifting species distributions. For some species, changing the geographical breadth of their niche space results in matching range shifts to regions other than those in which they are formally found. In this study, we employ a population genomics approach to assess potential conservation issues arising from purported range expansions into the south Texas Brush Country of two sister species of ducks: mottled ( Anas fulvigula ) and Mexican ( Anas diazi ) ducks. Specifically, despite being non-migratory, both species are increasingly being recorded outside their formal ranges, with the northeastward and westward expansions of Mexican and mottled ducks, respectively, perhaps resulting in secondary contact today. We assessed genetic ancestry using thousands of autosomal loci across the ranges of both species, as well as sampled Mexican- and mottled-like ducks from across overlapping regions of south Texas. First, we confirm that both species are indeed expanding their ranges, with genetically pure Western Gulf Coast mottled ducks confirmed as far west as La Salle county, Texas, while Mexican ducks recorded across Texas counties near the USA–Mexico border. Importantly, the first confirmed Mexican × mottled duck hybrids were found in between these regions, which likely represents a recently established contact zone that is, on average, ~100 km wide. We posit that climate- and land use-associated changes, including coastal habitat degradation coupled with increases in artificial habitats in the interior regions of Texas, are facilitating these range expansions. Consequently, continued monitoring of this recent contact event can serve to understand species’ responses in the Anthropocene, but it can also be used to revise operational survey areas for mottled ducks.

Genes↗

USGS2017

Balancing stability and flexibility in adaptive governance: An analysis of tools available in U.S. environmental law

Adaptive governance must work “on the ground,” that is, it must operate through structures and procedures that the people it governs perceive to be legitimate and fair, as well as incorporating processes and substantive goals that are effective in allowing social-ecological systems (SESs) to adapt to climate change and other impacts. To address the continuing and accelerating alterations that climate change is bringing to SESs, adaptive governance generally will require more flexibility than prior governance institutions have often allowed. However, to function as good governance, adaptive governance must pay real attention to the problem of how to balance this increased need for flexibility with continuing governance stability so that it can foster adaptation to change without being perceived or experienced as perpetually destabilizing, disruptive, and unfair. Flexibility and stability serve different purposes in governance, and a variety of tools exist to strike different balances between them while still preserving the governance institution’s legitimacy among the people governed. After reviewing those purposes and the implications of climate change for environmental governance, we examine psychological insights into the structuring of adaptive governance and the variety of legal tools available to incorporate those insights into adaptive governance regimes. Because the substantive goals of governance systems will differ among specific systems, we do not purport to comment on what the normative or substantive goals of law should be. Instead, we conclude that attention to process and procedure (including participation), as well as increased use of substantive standards (instead of rules), may allow an increased level of substantive flexibility to operate with legitimacy and fairness, providing the requisite levels of psychological, social, and economic stability needed for communities to adapt successfully to the Anthropocene.

Ecology and Society↗

USGS2022

Conservation genetics and wild trout: Evolving opportunities to support management

It is increasingly apparent that our planet is undergoing rapid, unprecedented environmental change. These changes are already impacting wild trout populations, leading to declines in occupancy and abundance across increasingly fragmented landscapes. Many changes are projected to intensify in the coming decades, which are likely to be crucial to the future of many wild populations. While there is some uncertainty in exactly how changes will manifest, we can be confident that many populations will need to rapidly adapt to change if they are to persist. The foundation of such rapid change is genetic diversity, and conservation strategies are most likely to be successful when they consider the role of genetics in the outlook for wild trout populations. While not a panacea, rapid advances in the field of conservation genetics allow longstanding questions to be addressed with greater rigor and present new opportunities to support management against a backdrop of accelerating change. Here, we review major advances in conservation genetics as they relate to wild trout and highlight potential opportunities to support conservation in the Anthropocene and key areas of continuing uncertainty.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2015

Effects of rapid urbanization on streamflow, erosion, and sedimentation in a desert stream in the American Southwest

Rapid urbanization has resulted in a series of sequential effects on a desert stream in the American Southwest. Lower Las Vegas Wash was a dry wash characterized by infrequent flood deposition when Las Vegas, Nevada was established in 1905. Wastewater effluent was discharged into the wash in low volumes for over 3 decades. Wastewater volumes increased commensurably with accelerated population growth during the late 20th century and created a sequence of feedback effects on the floodplain. Initially slow saturation of the valley fill created a desert oasis of dense floodplain vegetation and wetlands. Annual streamflow began in 1958 and erosion began a decade later with shallow incision in discontinuous channel segments. Increasing baseflow gradually enlarged channels; headcutting was active during the 1970s to 1984. The incised channels concentrated storm runoff, which accelerated local channel erosion, and in 1984 the headcuts were integrated during a series of monsoon floods. Wetlands were drained and most floodplain vegetation destroyed. Channel erosion continued unabated until engineering interventions began in the 21st century. No natural channel recovery occurred after initial urbanization effects because streamflow never stabilized in the late 20th century. A 6.6 M m 3 sediment slug, eroded from the wash in ∼25 years, was deposited in Las Vegas Bay in Lake Mead. Falling reservoir levels during the 21st century are responsible for sediment redistribution and infilling of the bay. Close monitoring of impacts is recommended when urban wastewater and storm runoff are discharged on a desert wash. Channel interventions, when necessary, are advised in order to prevent costly engineering schemes of channel stabilization, flood control, and floodplain restoration.

Anthropocene↗

USGS2017

Land before water: The relative temporal sequence of human alteration of freshwater ecosystems in the conterminous United States

Human alteration of ecosystems prior to Euro-American contact in the area that became the conterminous United States disproportionately affected terrestrial systems compared to freshwater ecosystems, primarily through the use of fire and agriculture in some regions of the United States. After circa 1600 AD, trapping of beaver, along with intensive modification of rivers and wetlands for navigation, mining, flood control, power generation, and agriculture, substantially altered river corridors throughout the country. River corridor here refers to channels of all sizes, from headwater streams to very large rivers, and includes floodplains and wetlands associated with channels. Literature suggests that ecosystem alteration by humans prior to and during Euro-American settlement changed from predominantly terrestrial to both terrestrial and freshwater in a manner that was time-transgressive with Euro- American colonization and U.S. settlement between the 17th and 19th centuries. The extent and intensity of post-Euro-American alteration of freshwater environments in the United States has resulted in widespread river metamorphosis toward more geomorphically and ecologically homogenous systems. Recognition of the rapidity and ubiquity of this alteration, and the consequent instability of many contemporary river corridors, should underpin contemporary river management

Anthropocene↗

USGS2022

Late Holocene human-environment interactions on the central California coast, USA, inferred from Morro Bay salt marsh sediments

Coastal salt marshes and estuaries provide valuable ecosystem services, yet are susceptible to alteration from human activities. Records of past environmental change in these ecosystems can elucidate relationships between human activities, such as land-use practices, and physical and ecological processes, such as sediment accretion and vegetation changes. To reconstruct the environmental history of one such site, we present inferences based on analysis of sediment cores (including magnetic susceptibility, loss-on-ignition, and pollen) from the Morro Bay salt marsh, located in California’s central coast in the USA. Chronologic control for the sediments was established using radiocarbon dates, a spike in lead (Pb) sourced from gasoline combustion exhaust, and the first identified occurrences of the non-native taxa Erodium cf. cicutarium (filaree) and Eucalyptus . We demonstrate that the Morro Bay watershed was significantly altered following Spanish settlement in the region. Environmental changes associated with livestock grazing and agriculture become evident in the data starting after 1772 CE, when the Mission San Luis Obispo de Tolosa was established nearby. The most prominent changes observed are an increase in the accumulation rate of terrigenous sediment, organic matter, and carbonates, as well as a reduction in arboreal taxa concomitant with increased abundances of shrubs, herbs, and grasses. The expansion of Salicornia (pickleweed) in the 19th century suggests the salt marsh expanded at this time due to increased sediment accumulation and a resulting increase in local elevation. The timing and character of changes recorded in the Morro Bay salt marsh sediments are similar to those documented across California in estuaries, marshes, lakes, and meadows, demonstrating the magnitude of the impacts of European settlement and associated land-use practices in this region.

Anthropocene↗

USGS2024

Saltwater intrusion and sea level rise threatens U.S. rural coastal landscapes and communities

The United States (U.S.) coastal plain is subject to rising sea levels, land subsidence, more severe coastal storms, and more intense droughts. These changes lead to inputs of marine salts into freshwater-dependent coastal systems, creating saltwater intrusion. The penetration of salinity into the coastal interior is exacerbated by groundwater extraction and the high density of agricultural canals and ditches throughout much of the rural U.S. landscape. Together saltwater intrusion and sea level rise (SWISLR) create substantial changes to the social-ecological systems situated along the coastal plain. Many scholars and practitioners are engaged in studying and managing SWISLR impacts on social, economic, and ecological systems. However, most efforts are localized and disconnected, despite a widespread desire to understand this common threat. In addition to variable rates of sea level rise across the U.S. outer coastal plain, differences in geomorphic setting, water resources infrastructure and management, and climate extremes are resulting in different patterns of saltwater intrusion. Understanding both the absolute magnitude of this rapid environmental change, and the causes and consequences for its spatial and temporal variation presents an opportunity to build new mechanistic models to link directional climate change to temporally and spatially dynamic socio-environmental impacts. The diverse trajectories of change offer rich opportunities to test and refine modern theories of ecosystem state change in systems with exceptionally strong socioecological feedbacks.

Anthropocene↗

USGS2019

Tidal erosion and upstream sediment trapping modulate records of land-use change in a formerly glaciated New England estuary

Land clearing, river impoundments, and other human modifications to the upland landscape and within estuarine systems can drive coastal change at local to regional scales. However, as compared with mid-latitude coasts, the impacts of human modifications along sediment-starved formerly glaciated coastal landscapes are relatively understudied. To address this gap, we present a late-Holocene record of changing sediment accumulation rates and sediment sources from sediment cores collected across a tidal flat in the Merrimack River estuary (Mass., USA). We pair sedimentology, geochronology, bulk- and stable-isotope organic geochemistry, and hydrodynamic simulations with historical data to evaluate human and natural impacts on coastal sediment fluxes. During the 17th to 19th centuries, accumulation rates increased by an order of magnitude in the central tidal flat, likely in response to enhanced delivery of terrestrial sediment resulting from upland deforestation. However, the overall increase in accumulation (0.56–2.6 mm/year) within the estuary is subtle and spatially variable across the tidal flats because of coincident anthropogenic land clearing and dam building, upland sediment storage, and estuarine hydrodynamics. This study provides insight into the response of formerly glaciated fluvial-coastal systems to human modifications, and underscores the role of estuarine environmental conditions in modifying upland signals of land-use change.

Massachusetts, New Hampshire↗

USGS2014

Sources and sinks of carbon in boreal ecosystems of interior Alaska: a review

Boreal regions store large quantities of carbon but are increasingly vulnerable to carbon loss due to disturbance and climate warming. The boreal region, underlain by discontinuous permafrost, presents a challenging landscape for itemizing current and potential carbon sources and sinks in the boreal soil and vegetation. The roles of fire, forest succession, and the presence (or absence) of permafrost on carbon cycle, vegetation, and hydrologic processes have been the focus of multidisciplinary research in this area for the past 20 years. However, projections of a warming future climate, an increase in fire severity and extent, and the potential degradation of permafrost could lead to major landscape process changes over the next 20 to 50 years. This provides a major challenge for predicting how the interplay between land management activities and impacts of climate warming will affect carbon sources and sinks in Interior Alaska. To assist land managers in adapting and managing for potential changes in the Interior Alaska carbon cycle we developed this review paper incorporating an overview of the climate, ecosystem processes, vegetation types, and soil regimes in Interior Alaska with a focus on ramifications for the carbon cycle. Our objective is to provide a synthesis of the most current carbon storage estimates and measurements to support policy and land management decisions on how to best manage carbon sources and sinks in Interior Alaska. To support this we have surveyed relevant peer reviewed estimates of carbon stocks in aboveground and belowground biomass for Interior Alaska boreal ecosystems. We have also summarized methane and carbon dioxide fluxes from the same ecosystems. These data have been converted into the same units to facilitate comparison across ecosystem compartments. We identify potential changes in the carbon cycle with climate change and human disturbance including how compounding disturbances can affect the boreal system. Finally, we provide recommendations to address the challenges facing land managers in efforts to manage carbon cycle processes. The results of this study can be used for carbon cycle management in other locations within the boreal biome which encompass a broad distribution from 45° to 83° north.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Recovery of a mining-damaged stream ecosystem

This paper presents a 30+ year record of changes in benthic macroinvertebrate communities and fish populations associated with improving water quality in mining-influenced streams. Panther Creek, a tributary to the Salmon River in central Idaho, USA suffered intensive damage from mining and milling operations at the Blackbird Mine that released copper (Cu), arsenic (As), and cobalt (Co) into tributaries. From the 1960s through the 1980s, no fish and few aquatic invertebrates could be found in 40 km of mine-affected reaches of Panther Creek downstream of the metals contaminated tributaries, Blackbird and Big Deer Creeks. Efforts to restore water quality began in 1995, and by 2002 Cu levels had been reduced by about 90%, with incremental declines since. Rainbow Trout ( Oncorhynchus mykiss ) were early colonizers, quickly expanding their range as areas became habitable when Cu concentrations dropped below about 3X the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's biotic ligand model (BLM) based chronic aquatic life criterion. Anadromous Chinook Salmon ( O. tshawytscha ) and steelhead ( O. mykiss ) have also reoccupied Panther Creek. Full recovery of salmonid populations occurred within about 12-years after the onset of restoration efforts and about 4-years after the Cu chronic criteria had mostly been met, with recovery interpreted as similarity in densities, biomass, year class strength, and condition factors between reference sites and mining-influenced sites. Shorthead Sculpin ( Cottus confusus ) were slower than salmonids to disperse and colonize. While benthic macroinvertebrate biomass has increased, species richness has plateaued at about 70 to 90% of reference despite the Cu criterion having been met for several years. Different invertebrate taxa had distinctly different recovery trajectories. Among the slowest taxa to recover were Ephemerella , Cinygmula and Rhithrogena mayflies, Enchytraeidae oligochaetes , and Heterlimnius aquatic beetles. Potential reasons for the failure of some invertebrate taxa to recover include competition, and high sensitivity to Co and Cu.

Idaho↗

USGS2015

Geochemical legacies and the future health of cities: A tale of two neurotoxins in urban soils

The past and future of cities are inextricably linked, a linkage that can be seen clearly in the long-term impacts of urban geochemical legacies. As loci of population as well as the means of employment and industry to support these populations, cities have a long history of co-locating contaminating practices and people, sometimes with negative implications for human health. Working at the intersection between environmental processes, communities, and human health is critical to grapple with environmental legacies and to support healthy, sustainable, and growing urban populations. An emerging area of environmental health research is to understand the impacts of chronic exposures and exposure mixtures—these impacts are poorly studied, yet may pose a significant threat to population health. Acute exposure to lead (Pb), a powerful neurotoxin to which children are particularly susceptible, has largely been eliminated in the U.S. and other countries through policy-based restrictions on leaded gasoline and lead-based paints. But the legacy of these sources remains in the form of surface soil Pb contamination, a common problem in cities and one that has only recently emerged as a widespread chronic exposure mechanism in cities. Some urban soils are also contaminated with another neurotoxin, mercury (Hg). The greatest human exposure to Hg is through fish consumption, so eating fish caught in urban areas presents risks for toxic Hg exposure. The potential double impact of chronic exposure to these two neurotoxins is pronounced in cities. Overall, there is a paradigmatic shift from reaction to and remediation of acute exposures towards a more nuanced understanding of the dynamic cycling of persistent environmental contaminants with resultant widespread and chronic exposure of inner-city dwellers, leading to chronic toxic illness and disability at substantial human and social cost.

Indiana↗

USGS2015

Suburban watershed nitrogen retention: Estimating the effectiveness of stormwater management structures

Excess nitrogen (N) is a primary driver of freshwater and coastal eutrophication globally, and urban stormwater is a rapidly growing source of N pollution. Stormwater best management practices (BMPs) are used widely to remove excess N from runoff in urban and suburban areas, and are expected to perform under a wide variety of environmental conditions. Yet the capacity of BMPs to retain excess N varies; and both the variation and the drivers thereof are largely unknown, hindering the ability of water resource managers to meet water quality targets in a cost-effective way. Here, we use structured expert judgment (SEJ), a performance-weighted method of expert elicitation, to quantify the uncertainty in BMP performance under a range of site-specific environmental conditions and to estimate the extent to which key environmental factors influence variation in BMP performance. We hypothesized that rain event frequency and magnitude, BMP type and size, and physiographic province would significantly influence the experts’ estimates of N retention by BMPs common to suburban Piedmont and Coastal Plain watersheds of the Chesapeake Bay region. Expert knowledge indicated wide uncertainty in BMP performance, with N removal efficiencies ranging from <0% (BMP acting as a source of N during a rain event) to >40%. Experts believed that the amount of rain was the primary identifiable source of variability in BMP efficiency, which is relevant given climate projections of more frequent heavy rain events in the mid-Atlantic. To assess the extent to which those projected changes might alter N export from suburban BMPs and watersheds, we combined downscaled estimates of rainfall with distributions of N loads for different-sized rain events derived from our elicitation. The model predicted higher and more variable N loads under a projected future climate regime, suggesting that current BMP regulations for reducing nutrients may be inadequate in the future.

Maryland↗

USGS2021

Climate impacts on the Gulf of Maine ecosystem: A review of observed and expected changes in 2050 from rising temperatures

The Gulf of Maine has recently experienced its warmest 5-year period (2015–2020) in the instrumental record. This warming was associated with a decline in the signature subarctic zooplankton species, Calanus finmarchicus . The temperature changes have also led to impacts on commercial species such as Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua ) and American lobster ( Homarus americanus ) and protected species including Atlantic puffins ( Fratercula arctica ) and northern right whales ( Eubalaena glacialis ). The recent period also saw a decline in Atlantic herring ( Clupea harengus ) recruitment and an increase in novel harmful algal species, although these have not been attributed to the recent warming. Here, we use an ensemble of numerical ocean models to characterize expected ocean conditions in the middle of this century. Under the high CO 2 emissions scenario (RCP8.5), the average temperature in the Gulf of Maine is expected to increase 1.1°C to 2.4°C relative to the 1976–2005 average. Surface salinity is expected to decrease, leading to enhanced water column stratification. These physical changes are likely to lead to additional declines in subarctic species including C. finmarchicus , American lobster, and Atlantic cod and an increase in temperate species. The ecosystem changes have already impacted human communities through altered delivery of ecosystem services derived from the marine environment. Continued warming is expected to lead to a loss of heritage, changes in culture, and the necessity for adaptation.

Maine, Massachusetts, New Brunswick, New Hampshire↗

USGS2026

New measurements indicate that natural geologic methane emissions from microseepage in the Michigan Basin are likely negligible

The magnitude of natural geologic methane (CH 4 ) emissions to the atmosphere (including emissions of fossil CH 4 from offshore and onshore gas and oil seeps, diffuse microseepage, mud volcanoes, volcanic vents, and geothermal areas) is highly uncertain. The largest component of geologic emissions is thought to be microseepage, which is the diffuse flux of CH 4 from soils across large areas of productive hydrocarbon basins. The accuracy of existing bottom-up estimates of microseepage is limited by low spatial coverage of published microseepage measurements. We present the first soil—atmosphere CH 4 flux measurements from Michigan Basin, USA. Results from 335 measurements taken during summer and winter seasons across a large portion of the basin suggest microseepage is nonexistent in the sampled region. Even areas with predictive features for microseepage (e.g., underlying mature, organically rich source rocks, proven gas accumulations, faults, and lineaments) yield null or negative fluxes, suggesting that CH 4 emissions from microseepage are negligible throughout our study region. A Monte Carlo method was used to place an upper limit on the regional-mean microseepage flux, in which synthetic patchy microseepage distributions were generated and tested against our observations to assess the impact of possible emission hot spots that were missed by our sampling strategy. Our analysis finds it is very unlikely that regional-mean emissions are as high as assumed in a previous global microseepage study. The observed lack of seepage may be explained by groundwater flow, active methanotrophy, glacial sediments, and bedded salt deposits, which could inhibit vertical gas migration and release to atmosphere.

Michigan↗