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Results for “American Journal of Climate Change”

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USGS2007

Watershed responses to climate change at Glacier National Park

We have developed an approach which examines ecosystem function and the potential effects of climatic shifts. The Lake McDonald watershed of Glacier National Park was the focus for two linked research activities: acquisition of baseline data on hydrologic, chemical and aquatic organism attributes that characterize this pristine northern rocky mountain watershed, and further developing the Regional Hydro-Ecosystem Simulation System (RHESSys), a collection of integrated models which collectively provide spatially explicit, mechanistically-derived outputs of ecosystem processes, including hydrologic outflow, soil moisture, and snowpack water equivalence. In this unique setting field validation of RHESSys, outputs demonstrated that reasonable estimates of SWE and streamflow are being produced. RHESSys was used to predict annual stream discharge and temperature. The predictions, in conjunction with the field data, indicated that aquatic resources of the park may be significantly affected. Utilizing RHESSys to predict potential climate scenarios and response of other key ecosystem components can provide scientific insights as well as proactive guidelines for national park management.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2015

Trends and natural variability of North American spring onset as evaluated by a new gridded dataset of spring indices

Climate change is expected to modify the timing of seasonal transitions this century, impacting wildlife migrations, ecosystem function, and agricultural activity. Tracking seasonal transitions in a consistent manner across space and through time requires indices that can be used for monitoring and managing biophysical and ecological systems during the coming decades. Here a new gridded dataset of spring indices is described and used to understand interannual, decadal, and secular trends across the coterminous United States. This dataset is derived from daily interpolated meteorological data, and the results are compared with historical station data to ensure the trends and variations are robust. Regional trends in the first leaf index range from 20.8 to 21.6 days decade21, while first bloom index trends are between20.4 and 21.2 for most regions. However, these trends are modulated by interannual to multidecadal variations, which are substantial throughout the regions considered here. These findings emphasize the important role large-scale climate modes of variability play in modulating spring onset on interannual to multidecadal time scales. Finally, there is some potential for successful subseasonal forecasts of spring onset, as indices from most regions are significantly correlated with antecedent large-scale modes of variability.

Journal of Climate↗

USGS2017

Nonnative trout invasions combined with climate change threaten persistence of isolated cutthroat trout populations in the southern Rocky Mountains

Effective conservation of Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lineages native to the Rocky Mountains will require estimating effects of multiple stressors and directing management toward the most important ones. Recent analyses have focused on the direct and indirect effects of a changing climate on contemporary ranges, which are much reduced from historic ranges owing to past habitat loss and nonnative trout invasions. However, nonnative trout continue to invade Cutthroat Trout populations in the southern Rocky Mountains. Despite management to isolate and protect these native populations, nonnatives still surmount barriers or are illegally stocked above them. We used data on the incidence of invasions by nonnative Brook Trout (BT) Salvelinus fontinalis and the rate of their invasion upstream to simulate effects on a set of 309 conservation populations of Colorado River Cutthroat Trout (CRCT) O. c. pleuriticus isolated in headwater stream fragments. A previously developed Bayesian network model was used to compare direct and indirect effects of climate change (CC) alone on population persistence versus the added effects of BT invasions. Although CC alone is predicted to extirpate only one CRCT population by 2080, BT invasions and CC together are predicted to completely extirpate 122 populations (39% of the total) if managers do not intervene. Another 113 populations (37%) will be at risk of extirpation after CC and invasions, primarily owing to stochastic risks in short stream fragments that are similar under CC alone. Overall, invasions and CC will reduce the number of stream fragments that are long enough to buffer CRCT populations against negative genetic consequences and stochastic disturbances by 48, a decrease of 38% compared to CC alone. High priorities are (1) research to estimate how CC and human factors alter the incidence and rate of BT invasions and (2) management to prevent new illegal introductions, repair inadequate barriers, and monitor and address new invasions.

Arizona, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2011

Land use and climate influences on waterbirds in the Prairie Potholes

Aim We examined the influences of regional climate and land‐use variables on mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ), blue‐winged teal ( Anas discors ), ruddy duck ( Oxyura jamaicensis ) and pied‐billed grebe ( Podilymbus podiceps ) abundances to inform conservation planning in the Prairie Pothole Region of the United States. Location The US portion of Bird Conservation Region 11 (US‐BCR11, the Prairie Potholes), which encompasses six states within the United States: Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Minnesota and Iowa. Methods We used data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey (NABBS), the National Land Cover Data Set, and the National Climatic Data Center to model the effects of environmental variables on waterbird abundance. We evaluated land‐use covariates at three logarithmically related spatial scales (1000, 10,000 and 100,000 ha), and constructed hierarchical spatial count models a priori using information from published habitat associations. Model fitting was performed using a hierarchical modelling approach within a Bayesian framework. Results Models with the same variables expressed at different scales were often in the best model subset, indicating that the influence of spatial scale was small. Both land‐use and climate variables contributed strongly to predicting waterbird abundance in US‐BCR11. The strongest positive influences on waterbird abundance were the percentage of wetland area across all three spatial scales, herbaceous vegetation and precipitation variables. Other variables that we included in our models did not appear to influence waterbirds in this study. Main conclusions Understanding the relationships of waterbird abundance to climate and land use may allow us to make predictions of future distribution and abundance as environmental factors change. Additionally, results from this study can suggest locations where conservation and management efforts should be focused.

Iowa, Minnesota, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, ↗

USGS2024

Evaluating water-quality trends in agricultural watersheds prioritized for management-practice implementation

Many agricultural watersheds rely on the voluntary use of management practices (MPs) to reduce nonpoint source nutrient and sediment loads; however, the water-quality effects of MPs are uncertain. We interpreted water-quality responses from as early as 1985 through 2020 in three agricultural Chesapeake Bay watersheds that were prioritized for MP implementation, namely, the Smith Creek (Virginia), Upper Chester River (Maryland), and Conewago Creek (Pennsylvania) watersheds. We synthesized patterns in MPs, climate, land use, and nutrient inputs to better understand factors affecting nutrient and sediment loads. Relations between MPs and expected water-quality improvements were not consistently identifiable. The number of MPs increased in all watersheds since the early 2010s, but most monitored nutrient and sediment loads did not decrease. Nutrient and sediment loads increased or remained stable in Smith Creek and the Upper Chester River. Sediment loads and some nutrient loads decreased in Conewago Creek. In Smith Creek, a 36-year time-series model suggests that changes in manure affected flow-normalized total nitrogen loads. We hypothesize that increases in nutrient applications may overshadow some expected MP effects. MPs might have stemmed further water-quality degradation, but improvements in nutrient loads may rely on reducing manure and fertilizer applications. Our results highlight the importance of assessing MP performance with long-term monitoring-based studies.

Journal of the American Water Resources Assocation↗

USGS2015

Too hot to trot? evaluating the effects of wildfire on patterns of occupancy and abundance for a climate-sensitive habitat-specialist

Wildfires are increasing in frequency and severity as a result of climate change in many ecosystems; however, effects of altered disturbance regimes on wildlife remain poorly quantified. Here, we leverage an unexpected opportunity to investigate how fire affects the occupancy and abundance of a climate-sensitive habitat specialist, the American pika ( Ochotona princeps ). We determine the effects of a fire on microclimates within talus and explore habitat factors promoting persistence and abundance in fire-affected habitat. During the fire, temperatures in talus interstices remained below 19°C, suggesting that animals could have survived in situ . Within 2 years, pikas were widely distributed throughout burned areas and did not appear to be physiologically stressed at severely burned sites. Furthermore, pika densities were better predicted by topographic variables known to affect this species than by metrics of fire severity. This widespread distribution may reflect quick vegetation recovery and the fact that the fire did not alter the talus microclimates in the following years. Together, these results highlight the value of talus as a thermal refuge for small animals during and after fire. They also underscore the importance of further study in individual species’ responses to typical and altered disturbance regimes.

Oregon↗

USGS2013

Scenarios of bioenergy development impacts on regional groundwater withdrawals

Irrigation increases agricultural productivity, but it also stresses water resources (Huffaker and Hamilton 2007). Drought and the potential for drier conditions resulting from climate change could strain water supplies in landscapes where human populations rely on finite groundwater resources for drinking, agriculture, energy, and industry (IPCC 2007). For instance, in the North American Great Plains, rowcrops are utilized for livestock feed, food, and bioenergy production (Cassman and Liska 2007), and a large portion is irrigated with groundwater from the High Plains aquifer system (McGuire 2011). Under projected future climatic conditions, greater crop water use requirements and diminished groundwater recharge rates could make rowcrop irrigation less feasible in some areas (Rosenberg et al. 1999; Sophocleous 2005). The Rainwater Basin region of south central Nebraska, United States, is an intensively farmed and irrigated Great Plains landscape dominated by corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean (Glycine max L.) production (Bishop and Vrtiska 2008). Ten starch-based ethanol plants currently service the region, producing ethanol from corn grain (figure 1). In this study, we explore the potential of switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.), a drought-tolerant alternative bioenergy feedstock, to impact regional annual groundwater withdrawals for irrigation under warmer and drier future conditions. Although our research context is specific to the Rainwater Basin and surrounding North American Great Plains, we believe the broader research question is internationally pertinent and hope that this study simulates similar research in other areas.

Nebraska↗

USGS2008

Evaluating the effects of historical land cover change on summertime weather and climate in New Jersey: Land cover and surface energy budget changes

The 19th-century agrarian landscape of New Jersey (NJ) and the surrounding region has been extensively transformed to the present-day land cover by urbanization, reforestation, and localized areas of deforestation. This study used a mesoscale atmospheric numerical model to investigate the sensitivity of the warm season climate of NJ to these land cover changes. Reconstructed 1880s-era and present-day land cover data sets were used as surface boundary conditions for a set of simulations performed with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). Three-member ensembles with historical and present-day land cover were compared to examine the sensitivity of surface air and dew point temperatures, rainfall, and the individual components of the surface energy budget to these land cover changes. Mean temperatures for the present-day landscape were 0.3-0.6??C warmer than for the historical landscape over a considerable portion of NJ and the surrounding region, with daily maximum temperatures at least 1.0??C warmer over some of the highly urbanized locations. Reforested regions, however, were slightly cooler. Dew point temperatures decreased by 0.3-0.6??C, suggesting drier, less humid near-surface air for the present-day landscape. Surface warming was generally associated with repartitioning of net radiation from latent to sensible heat flux, and conversely for cooling. While urbanization was accompanied by strong surface albedo decreases and increases in net shortwave radiation, reforestation and potential changes in forest composition have generally increased albedos and also enhanced landscape heterogeneity. The increased deciduousness of forests may have further reduced net downward longwave radiation. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.

New Jersey↗

USGS2017

Decreased runoff response to precipitation, Little Missouri River Basin, northern Great Plains, USA

High variability in precipitation and streamflow in the semiarid northern Great Plains causes large uncertainty in water availability. This uncertainty is compounded by potential effects of future climate change. We examined historical variability in annual and growing season precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the Little Missouri River Basin and identified differences in the runoff response to precipitation for the period 1976-2012 compared to 1939-1975 ( n = 37 years in both cases). Computed mean values for the second half of the record showed little change (<5%) in annual or growing season precipitation, but average annual runoff at the basin outlet decreased by 22%, with 66% of the reduction in flow occurring during the growing season. Our results show a statistically significant ( p < 0.10) 27% decrease in the annual runoff response to precipitation (runoff ratio). Surface-water withdrawals for various uses appear to account for <12% of the reduction in average annual flow volume, and we found no published or reported evidence of substantial flow reduction caused by groundwater pumping in this basin. Results of our analysis suggest that increases in monthly average maximum and minimum temperatures, including >1°C increases in January through March, are the dominant driver of the observed decrease in runoff response to precipitation in the Little Missouri River Basin.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming↗

USGS2022

Special section overview: Effects of ecosystem change on North American percid populations.

Walleye Sander vitreus , Sauger S. canadensis , and Yellow Perch Perca flavescens (referred to as percids herein) are collectively among the most culturally and ecologically important fish species in North America. As ecosystems change in response to environmental drivers, such as climate change, nutrient loading, and invasive species, there is a need to understand how percid populations respond to these changes. To address this need, a symposium was held during the 81st Annual Midwest Fish and Wildlife Conference to bring fishery scientists and managers together to describe and discuss percid population responses to ecosystem change. Prevailing symposium themes included the challenge of identifying mechanisms responsible for population-level changes, developing strategies to adaptively manage for resilient fisheries, and consideration of scale, context, and methods when interpreting variable results. Given the uncertainty of how ecosystem changes affect percid populations, participants emphasized the importance of communicating uncertainties to stakeholders, implementing data-driven management strategies, setting realistic goals, and revising management actions in an adaptive framework. There was universal agreement on both the challenge and necessity of facilitating constructive engagement among stakeholders in cooperative decision making. Symposium participants identified knowledge gaps and discussed future efforts to build on our current understanding of percid populations, including continuation of long-term monitoring, improved standardization of evaluation metrics, implementing adaptive management experiments to identify causal relationships, development of more robust analytical methods, use of historical data sources, and refining techniques to realistically convey management options to stakeholders.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗

USGS2010

Emerging themes in the ecology and management of North American forests

The 7th North American Forest Ecology Workshop, consisting of 149 presentations in 16 oral sessions and a poster session, reflected a broad range of topical areas currently under investigation in forest ecology and management. There was an overarching emphasis on the role of disturbance, both natural and anthropogenic, in the dynamics of forest ecosystems, and the recognition that legacies from past disturbances strongly influence future trajectories. Climate was invoked as a major driver of ecosystem change. An emphasis was placed on application of research findings for predicting system responses to changing forest management initiatives. Several “needs” emerged from the discussions regarding approaches to the study of forest ecosystems, including (1) consideration of variable spatial and temporal scales, (2) long-term monitoring, (3) development of universal databases more encompassing of time and space to facilitate meta-analyses, (4) combining field studies and modeling approaches, (5) standardizing methods of measurement and assessment, (6) guarding against oversimplification or overgeneralization from limited site-specific results, (7) greater emphasis on plant-animal interactions, and (8) better alignment of needs and communication of results between researchers and managers.

International Journal of Forestry Research↗

USGS2016

Island characteristics within wetlands influence waterbird nest success and abundance

Coastal waterbird populations are threatened by habitat loss and degradation from urban and agricultural development and forecasted sea level rise associated with climate change. Remaining wetlands often must be managed to ensure that waterbird habitat needs, and other ecosystem functions, are met. For many waterbirds, the availability of island nesting habitat is important for conserving breeding populations. We used linear mixed models to investigate the influence of pond and island landscape characteristics on nest abundance and nest success of American avocets ( Recurvirostra americana ), black-necked stilts ( Himantopus mexicanus ), and Forster's terns ( Sterna forsteri ) in San Francisco Bay, California, USA, based on a 9-year dataset that included >9,000 nests. Nest abundance and nest success were greatest within ponds and on individual islands located either <1 km or >4 km from San Francisco Bay. Further, nest abundance was greater within ponds with relatively few islands, and on linear-shaped, highly elongated islands compared to more rounded islands. Nest success was greater on islands located away from the nearest surrounding pond levee. Compared to more rounded islands, linear islands contained more near-water habitat preferred by many nesting waterbirds. Islands located away from pond levees may provide greater protection from terrestrial egg and chick predators. Our results indicate that creating and maintaining a few, relatively small, highly elongated and narrow islands away from mainland levees, in as many wetland ponds as possible would be effective at providing waterbirds with preferred nesting habitat.

California↗

USGS2010

Carbon, water, and energy fluxes in a semiarid cold desert grassland during and following multiyear drought

The net exchanges of carbon dioxide, water vapor, and energy were examined in a perennial Colorado Plateau grassland for 5 years. The study began within a multiyear drought and continued as the drought ended. The grassland is located near the northern boundary of the influence of the North American monsoon, a major climatic feature bringing summer rain. Following rain, evapotranspiration peaked above 8 mm d -1 but was usually much smaller (2-4 mm d -1 ). Net productivity of the grassland was low compared to other ecosystems, with peak hourly net CO 2 uptake in the spring of 4 (mu or u)mol m -2 s -1 and springtime carbon gain in the range of 42 + or - 11 g C m -2 (based on fluxes) to 72 + or - 55 g C m -2 (based on carbon stocks; annual carbon gain was not quantified). Drought decreased gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) and total ecosystem respiration, with a much larger GEP decrease. Monsoon rains led to respiratory pulses, lasting a few days at most, and only rarely resulted in net CO 2 gain, despite the fact that C 4 grasses dominated plant cover. Minor CO 2 uptake was observed in fall following rain. Spring CO 2 uptake was regulated by deep soil moisture, which depended on precipitation in the prior fall and winter. The lack of CO 2 uptake during the monsoon and the dependence of GEP on deep soil moisture are in contrast with arid grasslands of the warm deserts. Cold desert grasslands are most likely to be impacted by future changes in winter and not summer precipitation.

Colorado Plateau↗

USGS2017

Spatiotemporal variability of snow depletion curves derived from SNODAS for the conterminous United States, 2004-2013

Assessment of water resources at a national scale is critical for understanding their vulnerability to future change in policy and climate. Representation of the spatiotemporal variability in snowmelt processes in continental-scale hydrologic models is critical for assessment of water resource response to continued climate change. Continental-extent hydrologic models such as the U.S. Geological Survey National Hydrologic Model (NHM) represent snowmelt processes through the application of snow depletion curves (SDCs). SDCs relate normalized snow water equivalent (SWE) to normalized snow covered area (SCA) over a snowmelt season for a given modeling unit. SDCs were derived using output from the operational Snow Data Assimilation System (SNODAS) snow model as daily 1-km gridded SWE over the conterminous United States. Daily SNODAS output were aggregated to a predefined watershed-scale geospatial fabric and used to also calculate SCA from October 1, 2004 to September 30, 2013. The spatiotemporal variability in SNODAS output at the watershed scale was evaluated through the spatial distribution of the median and standard deviation for the time period. Representative SDCs for each watershed-scale modeling unit over the conterminous United States ( n = 54,104) were selected using a consistent methodology and used to create categories of snowmelt based on SDC shape. The relation of SDC categories to the topographic and climatic variables allow for national-scale categorization of snowmelt processes.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2023

Drawdown, habitat, and kokanee populations in a western U.S. reservoir

Greater drought frequency and severity due to climate change will result in greater drawdown of water storage reservoirs. However, changes to oxythermal regimes due to drawdown are reservoir specific and interface with fish species-specific habitat requirements, producing varying effects on coldwater fish populations. We examined the effect of drawdown on the oxythermal habitat and relative abundance of kokanee Oncorhynchus nerka , a coldwater salmonid, in Island Park Reservoir on the Henrys Fork of the Snake River, Idaho. A measure of relative kokanee abundance was negatively, exponentially related to drawdown. Oxythermal patterns measured in the reservoir during 2021, a severe drought year, revealed that drawdown reduced kokanee habitat by increasing water temperatures and decreasing dissolved oxygen concentrations. Oxythermal refugia for kokanee appeared to relate to inflow from the spring-fed Henrys Fork and other groundwater inflows. However, we did not quantify groundwater flow or connections, and we did not study kokanee population demographics or mortality. Reducing these sources of uncertainty is a priority for future study. Still, our study highlights a potential mechanism connecting reservoir drawdown to fish populations and the unique yet predictable mechanisms by which reservoir drawdown interacts with reservoir morphometry to affect fish habitat availability.

Idaho↗

USGS2017

Body mass, wing length, and condition of wintering ducks relative to hematozoa infection

Waterfowl managers lack information regarding factors that may be reducing the positive response of waterfowl body condition to habitat improvements. Protozoan blood parasites (i.e., hematozoa) are commonly found in birds and have been related to reduced body mass, wing length, and body condition. We studied relationships between 12 measures of hematozoa infection and body mass, wing length, and body mass divided by wing length (i.e., body condition index [BCI]) of the five most common duck species (northern pintail [ Anas acuta ], mallard [ A. platyrhynchos ], green-winged teal [ A. crecca ], American wigeon [ A. Americana ], northern shoveler [ A. clypeata ]) wintering in the Central Valley of California during October 2006-January 2007. After accounting for variation due to species, age-sex cohort, Central Valley region, and month; wing length, body mass, and BCI were found to be negatively related to infection by Leucocytozoon and by "any hematozoa" but not related to infection by only Plasmodium or Haemoproteus , or coinfections of greater than one genera or parasite haplotype (albeit, few ducks had Plasmodium or Haemoproteus infection or coinfections). Evidence of a negative relationship with infection was stronger for body mass and BCI than for wing length and indicated that the relationships varied among species, age-sex cohorts, regions, and months. Compared to uninfected ducks, hematozoa-infected duck body mass, wing length, and BCI was -1.63% (85% CI = -2.79%- -0.47%), -0.12% (-0.41%- +0.17%), and -1.38% (-2.49%- -0.26%), respectively. Although, seemingly small, the -1.63% difference in body mass represents a large percentage (e.g., 38% for northern pintail) of the observed increase in wintering duck body mass associated with Central Valley habitat improvements. Because infection prevalence and relationship to body condition might change over time due to climate or other factors, tracking hematozoa infection prevalence might be important to inform and accurately assess the effect of conservation programs designed to improve waterfowl body condition.

California↗

USGS2014

Population viability of Pediocactus brady (Cactaceae) in a changing climate

• Premise of the study: A key question concerns the vulnerability of desert species adapted to harsh, variable climates to future climate change. Evaluating this requires coupling long-term demographic models with information on past and projected future climates. We investigated climatic drivers of population growth using a 22-yr demographic model for Pediocactus bradyi , an endangered cactus in northern Arizona. • Methods: We used a matrix model to calculate stochastic population growth rates (λ s ) and the relative influences of life-cycle transitions on population growth. Regression models linked population growth with climatic variability, while stochastic simulations were used to (1) understand how predicted increases in drought frequency and extreme precipitation would affect λ s , and (2) quantify variability in λ s based on temporal replication of data. • Key results: Overall λ s was below unity (0.961). Population growth was equally influenced by fecundity and survival and significantly correlated with increased annual precipitation and higher winter temperatures. Stochastic simulations increasing the probability of drought and extreme precipitation reduced λ s , but less than simulations increasing the probability of drought alone. Simulations varying the temporal replication of data suggested 14 yr were required for accurate λ s estimates. • Conclusions: Pediocactus bradyi may be vulnerable to increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, particularly drought. Biotic interactions resulting in low survival during drought years outweighed increased seedling establishment following heavy precipitation. Climatic extremes beyond historical ranges of variability may threaten rare desert species with low population growth rates and therefore high susceptibility to stochastic events.

Arizona↗

USGS2017

Declines in low-elevation subalpine tree populations outpace growth in high-elevation populations with warming

Species distribution shifts in response to climate change require that recruitment increase beyond current range boundaries. For trees with long life spans, the importance of climate-sensitive seedling establishment to the pace of range shifts has not been demonstrated quantitatively. Using spatially explicit, stochastic population models combined with data from long-term forest surveys, we explored whether the climate-sensitivity of recruitment observed in climate manipulation experiments was sufficient to alter populations and elevation ranges of two widely distributed, high-elevation North American conifers. Empirically observed, warming-driven declines in recruitment led to rapid modelled population declines at the low-elevation, ‘warm edge’ of subalpine forest and slow emergence of populations beyond the high-elevation, ‘cool edge’. Because population declines in the forest occurred much faster than population emergence in the alpine, we observed range contraction for both species. For Engelmann spruce, this contraction was permanent over the modelled time horizon, even in the presence of increased moisture. For limber pine, lower sensitivity to warming may facilitate persistence at low elevations – especially in the presence of increased moisture – and rapid establishment above tree line, and, ultimately, expansion into the alpine. Synthesis . Assuming 21st century warming and no additional moisture, population dynamics in high-elevation forests led to transient range contractions for limber pine and potentially permanent range contractions for Engelmann spruce. Thus, limitations to seedling recruitment with warming can constrain the pace of subalpine tree range shifts.

Journal of Ecology↗