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USGS2013

Computationally efficient statistical differential equation modeling using homogenization

Statistical models using partial differential equations (PDEs) to describe dynamically evolving natural systems are appearing in the scientific literature with some regularity in recent years. Often such studies seek to characterize the dynamics of temporal or spatio-temporal phenomena such as invasive species, consumer-resource interactions, community evolution, and resource selection. Specifically, in the spatial setting, data are often available at varying spatial and temporal scales. Additionally, the necessary numerical integration of a PDE may be computationally infeasible over the spatial support of interest. We present an approach to impose computationally advantageous changes of support in statistical implementations of PDE models and demonstrate its utility through simulation using a form of PDE known as “ecological diffusion.” We also apply a statistical ecological diffusion model to a data set involving the spread of mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae) in Idaho, USA.

Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environme↗

USGS2007

Simulation of Intra- or transboundary surface-water-rights hierarchies using the farm process for MODFLOW-2000

Water-rights driven surface-water allocations for irrigated agriculture can be simulated using the farm process for MODFLOW-2000. This paper describes and develops a model, which simulates routed surface-water deliveries to farms limited by streamflow, equal-appropriation allotments, or a ranked prior-appropriation system. Simulated diversions account for deliveries to all farms along a canal according to their water-rights ranking and for conveyance losses and gains. Simulated minimum streamflow requirements on diversions help guarantee supplies to senior farms located on downstream diverting canals. Prior appropriation can be applied to individual farms or to groups of farms modeled as “virtual farms” representing irrigation districts, irrigated regions in transboundary settings, or natural vegetation habitats. The integrated approach of jointly simulating canal diversions, surface-water deliveries subject to water-rights constraints, and groundwater allocations is verified on numerical experiments based on a realistic, but hypothetical, system of ranked virtual farms. Results are discussed in light of transboundary water appropriation and demonstrate the approach’s suitability for simulating effects of water-rights hierarchies represented by international treaties, interstate stream compacts, intrastate water rights, or ecological requirements.

Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management↗

USGS2022

Supplemental habitat is reservoir dependent: Identifying optimal planting decision using Bayesian Decision Networks

Environmental management often requires making decisions despite system uncertainty. One such example is mudflat mediation in flood control reservoirs. Reservoir mudflats limit development of diverse fish assemblages due to the lack of structural habitat provided by plants. Seeding mudflats with agricultural plants may mimic floodplain wetlands once inundated and provide fish habitat and achieve habitat management objectives. However, planting success is uncertain because of unpredictable water level fluctuations that affect plant survival and growth. Decision support tools can account for uncertainty that influences decision outcomes and reduce the risk in reservoir mudflat planting decisions. We used Bayesian decision networks and sensitivity analyses to quantify uncertainty surrounding mudflat plantings as supplemental fish habitat in four northwest Mississippi reservoirs. When averaged across all uncertainty, planting was the optimal decision only in Enid Lake. Response profiles indicated planting decisions depended on elevation contours within Enid, Sardis, and Grenada reservoirs. No planting was optimal at all elevations for Arkabutla Lake. These results provide a quantified basis for establishing best management practices and identify key system states that influence decision outcomes. The process used in this study to evaluate planting decisions can be applied to any reservoir by modifying reservoir dependent inputs to evaluate planting decisions to provide supplemental fish habitat.

Mississippi↗

USGS2008

Nutrient dynamics as indicators of karst processes: Comparison of the Chalk aquifer (Normandy, France) and the Edwards aquifer (Texas, U.S.A.)

Karst aquifers display a range of geologic and geomorphic characteristics in a wide range of climatic and land-use settings; identification of transport dynamics representative of karst aquifers in general could help advance our understanding of these complex systems. To this end, nutrient, turbidity, and major ion dynamics in response to storms were compared at multiple sites in two karst aquifers with contrasting characteristics and settings: the Chalk aquifer (Eure Department, Normandy, France) and the Barton Springs segment of the Edwards Aquifer (Texas, U.S.A.). The Chalk aquifer is typified by high matrix porosity, thick surficial deposits (up to 30??m thick), and agricultural land use; the Barton Springs segment is typified by low matrix porosity, outcropping limestone, and urban land use. Following one to three storms, from 5 to 16 samples from springs and wells were analyzed for major ions, and specific conductance and turbidity were monitored continuously. Comparison of the chemographs indicated some generalized responses, including an increase in turbidity and potassium concentrations and a decrease in major ion and nitrate concentrations with infiltrating storm runoff. Factor analysis of major ions and turbidity revealed strikingly similar behavior of the chemical variables for the two aquifers: The first two factors, explaining more than 75% of the variability, illustrate that dynamics of most major ions (including nitrate) are opposed to those of turbidity and of potassium. The results demonstrate that potassium and nitrate are effective tracers of infiltrating storm runoff and resident ground water, respectively, and the similar results for these two highly contrasting aquifers suggest that the dynamics identified might be applicable to karst systems in general. ?? 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Contaminant Hydrology↗

USGS2022

Local environment and individuals’ beliefs: The dynamics shaping public support for sustainability policy in an agricultural landscape

Agricultural landscapes are the bleeding-edge in the advancement of sustainability and climate change adaptation. Our study focuses on how individual support for sustainability policy is shaped in coupled natural and human systems. We present an agent-based model in which a cultural decision-rule quantifies the probability that a stakeholder decides to support an easement policy for a region in the Central Great Plains, USA. Our model defines a cultural threshold used to assess how culturally meaningful the policy is for each stakeholder. The individual cultural threshold is estimated using the value-belief-norm framework and is modified by perceived changes in the environment. Results demonstrated that few stakeholders support the policy in the average cultural setting (8.9%). However, enough stakeholders would support the policy under a lower cultural threshold (40.7%). Our results indicate that sustainability policies do not need to be cheap if they are culturally meaningful.

Kansas↗

USGS2022

Linkages between land-use change and groundwater management foster long-term resilience of water supply in California

Study Region We created a 270-m coupled model of land-use and groundwater conditions, LUCAS-W[ater], for California’s Central Coast. This groundwater-dependent region is undergoing a dramatic reorganization of groundwater management under California’s 2014 Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). Study Focus Understanding land-use and land-cover change supports long-term sustainable water management. Anthropogenic water demand has depleted groundwater aquifers worldwide, while future water shortages will likely affect land-use change, creating system feedbacks. Our novel participatory approach fused changes in land-use and associated water use from county-scale data to local water agencies’ estimates of total sustainable supply, scaling up local hydro-geologic knowledge from heterogeneous aquifers and diverse management approaches to a regional level. We assessed five stakeholder-driven scenarios with the same historic rates of urban and agricultural land-use change, but different water and land-use management, analyzing how management strategies altered both the spatial pattern of development and subsequent water sustainability from 2001 to 2061. New Hydrological Insights for the Region Transformative strategies using demand-side interventions that coupled water availability to land-use more effectively achieved long-term sustainability than adaptive strategies using supply-side interventions to increase water supplies. Limiting water withdrawals within SGMA regulated basins resulted in leakage of development into unregulated basins, increasing groundwater pumping there. Protecting ecosystems, farmlands, and recharge areas from development reduced leakage into undeveloped basins without negatively affecting water sustainability.

California↗

USGS2008

Groundwater's significance to changing hydrology, water chemistry, and biological communities of a floodplain ecosystem, Everglades, South Florida, USA

The Everglades (Florida, USA) is one of the world's larger subtropical peatlands with biological communities adapted to waters low in total dissolved solids and nutrients. Detecting how the pre-drainage hydrological system has been altered is crucial to preserving its functional attributes. However, reliable tools for hindcasting historic conditions in the Everglades are limited. A recent synthesis demonstrates that the proportion of surface-water inflows has increased relative to precipitation, accounting for 33% of total inputs compared with 18% historically. The largest new source of water is canal drainage from areas of former wetlands converted to agriculture. Interactions between groundwater and surface water have also increased, due to increasing vertical hydraulic gradients resulting from topographic and water-level alterations on the otherwise extremely flat landscape. Environmental solute tracer data were used to determine groundwater's changing role, from a freshwater storage reservoir that sustained the Everglades ecosystem during dry periods to a reservoir of increasingly degraded water quality. Although some of this degradation is attributable to increased discharge of deep saline groundwater, other mineral sources such as fertilizer additives and peat oxidation have made a greater contribution to water-quality changes that are altering mineral-sensitive biological communities. ?? Springer-Verlag 2008.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

USGS2007

Estimation of evapotranspiration by reed canarygrass using field observations and model simulations

Reed canarygrass (Phalaris arundinacea) commonly invades meadow wetlands, effectively dominating water use and outcompeting native plants. Objectives of this study were to (i) estimate daily, seasonal and annual water use by reed canarygrass using shallow water table fluctuations; and (ii) calibrate the ALMANAC (Agricultural Land Management Alternative with Numerical Assessment Criteria) model to accurately simulate water uptake by this grass. Using a groundwater well, the water table under an area in Iowa dominated by reed canarygrass was monitored hourly. Differences between water level measurements taken each hour were averaged to determine the hourly water table change in each month. Using these estimates of water use, the ALMANAC model was then calibrated to simulate plant transpiration values close to these water table use rates. Average monthly calculated daily plant water use rates were 3.3 mm d-1 in July and 2.3-2.8 mm d-1 in May, June, August, and September. Simulated bimonthly values for measured water use and plant transpiration simulated by the ALMANAC model differed by 14% or less. From May to October the mean ratio of measured to simulated values was 94%. Thus, the similarity between simulated plant transpiration and water use from the water table showed promise that this process-based model can realistically simulate water use under such grassland systems. ?? 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2024

Visual interpretation of high-resolution aerial imagery: A tool for land managers

Remotely sensed imagery from various collection platforms (e.g., satellites, crewed and uncrewed aircraft) are used by biologists and other conservation personnel to support management activities ranging from monitoring invasive species to assessing land cover and vegetation characteristics. Although remote sensing–based vegetation indices and models have been developed and used for some management applications, straightforward visual interpretation of imagery by on-the-ground personnel may be a pragmatic approach for obtaining time-sensitive and spatially relevant information to support and guide local management activities. Our primary objective was to qualitatively assess our ability to identify patches of target invasive plant species based on simple visual interpretation of high-resolution aerial imagery. We also sought to compare the high-resolution imagery to widely available imagery (e.g., National Agriculture Imagery Program) to determine the efficacy of each for assessing vegetation communities and land-cover features in support of management activities. To accomplish these objectives, we obtained high-resolution imagery and visually scanned and assessed the imagery by using standard geographic information system software. We were able to differentiate patches of crownvetch Securigera varia (L.) Lassen and wild parsnip Pastinaca sativa L., but not spotted knapweed Centaurea stoebe L. or leafy spurge Euphorbia esula L. The relative success in identifying these species had a relationship to plant characteristics (e.g., flower color and morphology, height), time of year (phenology), patch size and density, and potentially site characteristics such density of the underlying vegetation (e.g., grasses), substrate color characteristics (i.e., color contrast with flowers), and physical disturbance. Our straightforward, qualitative assessment suggests that visual interpretation of high-resolution imagery, but not some lower-resolution imagery, may be an efficient and effective tool for supporting local invasive species management through activities such as monitoring known patches, identifying undetected infestations, assessing management actions, guiding field work, or prioritizing on-the-ground monitoring activities.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2015

Trends and natural variability of North American spring onset as evaluated by a new gridded dataset of spring indices

Climate change is expected to modify the timing of seasonal transitions this century, impacting wildlife migrations, ecosystem function, and agricultural activity. Tracking seasonal transitions in a consistent manner across space and through time requires indices that can be used for monitoring and managing biophysical and ecological systems during the coming decades. Here a new gridded dataset of spring indices is described and used to understand interannual, decadal, and secular trends across the coterminous United States. This dataset is derived from daily interpolated meteorological data, and the results are compared with historical station data to ensure the trends and variations are robust. Regional trends in the first leaf index range from 20.8 to 21.6 days decade21, while first bloom index trends are between20.4 and 21.2 for most regions. However, these trends are modulated by interannual to multidecadal variations, which are substantial throughout the regions considered here. These findings emphasize the important role large-scale climate modes of variability play in modulating spring onset on interannual to multidecadal time scales. Finally, there is some potential for successful subseasonal forecasts of spring onset, as indices from most regions are significantly correlated with antecedent large-scale modes of variability.

Journal of Climate↗

USGS1999

Estimation of nitrate contamination of an agro-ecosystem outwash aquifer using a nitrogen mass-balance budget

A mass-balance budget of N cycling was developed for an intensive agricultural area in west-central Minnesota to better understand NO3/- contamination of ground water in the Otter Tail outwash aquifer. Fertilizer, biological fixation, atmospheric deposition, and animal feed were the N sources, and crop harvests, animal product exports, volatilization from fertilizer and manure, and denitrification were the N sinks in the model. Excess N, calculated as the difference between the sources and sinks, was assumed to leach to ground water as NO3/-. The budget was developed using ground water data collected throughout the 212-km2 study area. Denitrification was estimated by adjusting its value so the predicted and measured concentrations of NO3/- in ground water agreed. Although biological fixation was the largest single N source, most was removed when crops were harvested, indicating that inorganic fertilizer was the primary source of N reaching the water table. It was estimated that denitrification removed almost half of the excess NO3/- that leached below the root zone. Even after accounting for denitrification losses, however, it was concluded that the ground water system was receiving approximately three times as much N as would be expected under background conditions.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

USGS2025

Exposure of infants to antibiotics via cord blood, breast milk, and formula: A review on exposure level, temporal variation, and risk assessment

The pervasive use of antibiotics across various sectors, including agriculture, medicine, and aquaculture, has led to a notable increase in environmental antibiotic residues. This phenomenon has raised significant public concern regarding the potential health risks antibiotics may pose, particularly to vulnerable populations such as infants. However, the conceptualization of exposure routes of antibiotics to infants and the associated health risks has not been conducted. This review summarized three main pathways infants are exposed to antibiotics, including umbilical cord blood, breast milk, and infant formula. Antibiotic exposure levels in infants were synthesized, examining spatial and temporal trends in antibiotic concentrations across different media through clinical testing. We also analyzed the doses of antibiotics consumed by infants over time through breast milk and formula, evaluating the associated risks. Furthermore, we explored the potential adverse effects of early-life antibiotic exposure on the infant gut microbiota, physical development, and multiple organ systems. Given the global significance of antibiotic distribution, it is pertinent to comprehensively monitor antibiotic concentrations in infants and conduct longitudinal follow-up studies on their growth and development, accurately quantifying and assessing the impacts on fetal and infant health.

Journal of Hazardous Materials↗

USGS2009

Seasonal movements and home ranges of white-tailed deer in north-central South Dakota

Knowledge of movement patterns of white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus (Zimmermann, 1780)) inhabiting landscapes intensively modified by agricultural systems is important to the present and future understanding of deer ecology. Little information exists regarding daily and seasonal movements of white-tailed deer in north-central South Dakota. Therefore, our goal was to determine movement patterns and home-range use of female white-tailed deer in north-central South Dakota. From January 2005 to January 2007, 29 adult (>18 months) and 13 yearling (8–18 months) white-tailed deer were monitored for movement using radiotelemetry. We collected 2822 locations, calculated 76 home ranges, and documented 50 seasonal movements. Mean migration distance between summer and winter home ranges was 19.4 km (SE = 2.0 km). Mean 95% home-range size was 10.2 km 2 (SE = 1.2 km 2 , n = 27) during winter and 9.2 km 2 (SE = 1.0 km 2 , n = 49) during summer. Ambient temperature appeared to be a primary cause of seasonal migration. Additionally, movements exhibited by white-tailed deer in north-central South Dakota were influenced by a highly fragmented landscape dominated by row crops and pasture or grassland.

South Dakota↗

USGS2018

Land management alters traditional nutritional benefits of migration for elk

Ungulates typically migrate to maximize nutritional intake when forage varies seasonally. In western North America, however, increasing numbers of ungulates reside on low-elevation winter range year-round rather than migrating. These residents often occupy irrigated agricultural areas, but it is not known whether the nutrition provided by agricultural land exceeds that gained by migration. We evaluated the nutrition available to a partially migratory population of elk ( Cervus canadensis ) in west-central Montana where some individuals summered on low-elevation agricultural lands, whereas others summered on traditional higher-elevation ranges. We sampled elk forage plants from ground plots and adult female elk movements from global positioning system (GPS) collar locations during late summer for 2 years. We tested for differences in the nutrition provided by 11 vegetative communities commonly available to elk in the Rocky Mountains and the nutrition available in areas used by individuals whose behaviors ranged from residency to migration. We found the nutrition available to elk decreased along the continuum from resident to migratory behavior, contrary to our hypothesis that all behaviors would provide access to equivalent forage quality. The relatively small summer home ranges of migrants suggest other factors (e.g., decreased competition) may compensate for their lower nutritional value, because the size of a home range is often inversely related to its fitness benefits. We found irrigated agriculture provided the highest forage quality in low elevations, but recently burned (1–6 yr prior) dry forests at higher elevations provided forage quality approximately equivalent to that of irrigated agriculture. Excluding elk from irrigated agricultural areas should therefore reduce nutritional incentives for elk to reside at low elevations year-round. Additionally, fire in higher-elevation dry forests may temporarily increase forage quality for elk and improve nutritional benefits of migratory behavior. Our results indicate land management practices can affect nutritionally mediated fitness benefits of differing behaviors in partially migratory populations of ungulates

Montana↗

USGS2020

Advancements towards selective barrier passage by automatic species identification: Applications of deep convolutional neural networks on images of dewatered fish

Invasive species negatively affect enterprises such as fisheries, agriculture, and international trade. In the Laurentian Great Lakes Basin, threats include invasive sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) and the four major Chinese carps. Barriers have proven to be an effective mechanism for managing invasive species but are detrimental in that they also limit the migration of desirable, native species. Fish passage technologies that selectively pass desirable species while blocking undesirable species are needed. Key to an automated selective barrier passage system is a high precision fish classifier to assign fish to be passed or blocked. Presented is an evaluation of two classifiers developed using images of partially dewatered fish captured from a commercial, high-speed camera array. For a lamprey vs. non-lamprey classification task, an ensemble prediction approach achieved near perfect accuracy on both a validation and test dataset. For a species classification task for 13 species found in the Great Lakes region, an ensemble prediction approach achieved accuracies of 96% and 97% on a validation and test dataset, respectively. Both prediction approaches were based on deep convolutional neural networks constructed using transfer learning and image augmentation. The study provides an important proof-of-concept for the viability in fully automated, selective fish passage systems.

Illinois, Michigan,Ohio↗

USGS2008

Influences of the unsaturated, saturated, and riparian zones on the transport of nitrate near the Merced River, California, USA

Transport and transformation of nitrate was evaluated along a 1-km groundwater transect from an almond orchard to the Merced River, California, USA, within an irrigated agricultural setting. As indicated by measurements of pore-water nitrate and modeling using the root zone water quality model, about 63% of the applied nitrogen was transported through a 6.5-m unsaturated zone. Transport times from recharge locations to the edge of a riparian zone ranged from approximately 6 months to greater than 100 years. This allowed for partial denitrification in horizons having mildly reducing conditions, and essentially no denitrification in horizons with oxidizing conditions. Transport times across a 50-100-m-wide riparian zone of less than a year to over 6 years and more strongly reducing conditions resulted in greater rates of denitrification. Isotopic measurements and concentrations of excess N2 in water were indicative of denitrification with the highest rates below the Merced River. Discharge of water and nitrate into the river was dependent on gradients driven by irrigation or river stage. The results suggest that the assimilative capacity for nitrate of the groundwater system, and particularly the riverbed, is limiting the nitrate load to the Merced River in the study area. ?? Springer-Verlag 2007.

Hydrogeology Journal↗

USGS2023

Agricultural conservation practices could help offset climate change impacts on cyanobacterial harmful algal blooms in Lake Erie

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a recurring problem in many temperate large lake and coastal marine ecosystems, caused mainly by anthropogenic eutrophication. Implementation of agricultural conservation practices (ACPs) offers a means to reduce non-point source nutrient runoff and mitigate HABs. However, the effectiveness of ACPs in a changing climate remains uncertain. We used an integrated biophysical modeling approach to predict how Lake Erie cyanobacterial HAB severity (bloom biomass) may change under several climate and ACP implementation scenarios, using western Lake Erie and its largely agricultural watershed as our study system. An ensemble of general circulation model projections was used to drive spatially explicit land use and hydrology models of the Maumee River watershed, the output of which informed a predictive model of Lake Erie HAB severity. Results show that, in the absence of changes in ACPs, the frequency of severe HABs is projected to increase during coming decades, owing to increased inputs of nutrients from the watershed. These anticipated increases are due to increased total precipitation and more frequent higher-magnitude rainfall events. While further implementation of ACPs appears capable of reducing severe HAB events, widespread implementation would be necessary to reduce HAB severity below current management targets. This study highlights how continued climate change will only exacerbate the need for land management practices that can reduce nutrient runoff in agriculturally dominated ecosystems, such as Lake Erie. It also shows how interdisciplinary, biophysical modeling approaches can help identify strategies to mitigate HABs in the face of anthropogenic stressors.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2014

Collaborative modelling and integrated decision support system analysis of a developed terminal lake basin

A terminal lake basin in west-central Nevada, Walker Lake, has undergone drastic change over the past 90 yrs due to upstream water use for agriculture. Decreased inflows to the lake have resulted in 100 km 2 decrease in lake surface area and a total loss of fisheries due to salinization. The ecologic health of Walker Lake is of great concern as the lake is a stopover point on the Pacific route for migratory birds from within and outside the United States. Stakeholders, water institutions, and scientists have engaged in collaborative modeling and the development of a decision support system that is being used to develop and analyze management change options to restore the lake. Here we use an integrated management and hydrologic model that relies on state-of-the-art simulation capabilities to evaluate the benefits of using integrated hydrologic models as components of a decision support system. Nonlinear feedbacks among climate, surface-water and groundwater exchanges, and water use present challenges for simulating realistic outcomes associated with management change. Integrated management and hydrologic modeling provides a means of simulating benefits associated with management change in the Walker River basin where drastic changes in the hydrologic landscape have taken place over the last century. Through the collaborative modeling process, stakeholder support is increasing and possibly leading to management change options that result in reductions in Walker Lake salt concentrations, as simulated by the decision support system.

Nevada↗